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Can't wait for the first EBS warning telling people to not go outside due to "lethal" temperatures. ...and then people in that part of CA doing it anyway because "GUBBERMINT AIN'T TELLIN' ME WHAT T'DO."
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Jun 21, 2021 22:23
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Kazinsal posted:A former house. Thoroughly former, in fact. I was afraid of that  hobbesmaster posted:Its what happens to a house when hit by an EF4 tornado. poo poo, I hadn't heard it was that beefy. (I actually haven't seen as much info about it as I would have expected . . . but work was a dumpster fire today so maybe I just didn't have time to pay attention)
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Jun 21, 2021 23:03
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Zarin posted:I was afraid of that That appears to be a degree of damage consistent with an EF4. They'd need to find 3 other locations with EF4 damage to actually declare it an EF4. It could be EF3 if theres a bathroom still standing in that mess but I doubt it... EF scale is done via damage, theres indicators listed here: https://www.weather.gov/oun/tornadodata-okc-appendix The specific page for a single family house: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/2.html That'd appear to be all walls down which would be a 9 in degrees of damage representing a wind speed somewhere between 142 and 198 (expected 170). EF3/4 cutoff is 166 so I'm guessing EF4 damage. hobbesmaster has issued a correction as of 23:10 on Jun 21, 2021 |
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Jun 21, 2021 23:06
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FlamingLiberal posted:My son is also named Hurricane Bort that's also my name  VectorSigma posted:it's actually happening lol
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Jun 21, 2021 23:10
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Kazinsal posted:https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1406022372109418497
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Jun 21, 2021 23:28
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hobbesmaster posted:That appears to be a degree of damage consistent with an EF4. They'd need to find 3 other locations with EF4 damage to actually declare it an EF4. It could be EF3 if theres a bathroom still standing in that mess but I doubt it... Interesting, thanks for that! I just moved into a 4-story apartment building that appears to be made out of steel and concrete with brick cladding . . . that's only 40 miles North/Northeast of this one . . . and doesn't have a basement . . . I slept pretty easy last night because I figured this is a more substantial building than anything I've ever lived in before, but looking at 7 and 17, "complete destruction of all or part of the building" happens at a lower expected windspeed than a SFH slab being scoured clean 
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Jun 21, 2021 23:30
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BIG HEADLINE posted:Can't wait for the first EBS warning telling people to not go outside due to "lethal" temperatures. ...has the EAS ever been activated for excessive heat? I can certainly imagine it being activated for an event like that. It doesn't look like it's on the list of the approved NWS codes.
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Jun 21, 2021 23:33
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Maybe a Special Weather Statement? Weren't there Inclement Weather Warnings for some of the super cold snaps a few years ago?
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Jun 21, 2021 23:39
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Kazinsal posted:https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1406022372109418497 Okay, I think im crack pinged now haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
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Jun 21, 2021 23:43
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That's the equivalent of those same models showing monster Cat 5s just going buck wild and doing donuts over the east coast on some runs
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Jun 21, 2021 23:45
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Luneshot posted:...has the EAS ever been activated for excessive heat? I can certainly imagine it being activated for an event like that. Nope
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Jun 21, 2021 23:45
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FlamingLiberal posted:That's the equivalent of those same models showing monster Cat 5s just going buck wild and doing donuts over the east coast on some runs usually GFS and euro don’t agree with crazy stuff like that
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Jun 22, 2021 00:41
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Zarin posted:Interesting, thanks for that! scouring the pad clean is actually extremely difficult if you think about it, it’s way harder than “destruction” of all or part of the building. if you really want to wonder about something check out the indicators for a high rise building. it goes up to “significant deformation” as the highest indicator which is winds up to 290mph.
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Jun 22, 2021 00:43
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FlamingLiberal posted:That's the equivalent of those same models showing monster Cat 5s just going buck wild and doing donuts over the east coast on some runs Oh yeah, I don't trust anything that far out and I don't expect it to actually happen. It's an interesting edge case which will hopefully be helpful for future refinements of the models, but it catches our attention because both major forecast models agree and the implications if it was an accurate forecast would be very scary. Any model should be viewed with suspicion when dealing with the extremely complex and dynamic environments of tropical cyclones, but it's not like this is the only example of models doing non-hurricane weird poo poo at >200hrs either.
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Jun 22, 2021 00:49
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Kazinsal posted:https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1406022372109418497 "these readings... they can't be correct" *shoving papers aside, frantically looking between monitors, creeping instrumentals becoming louder* "all of the models... they're giving the same readings?? there has to be a miscalculation here" *music stops, dramatic pause as main character looks into camera* "unless..." *theme music, title sequence*
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Jun 22, 2021 01:04
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Luneshot posted:Oh yeah, I don't trust anything that far out and I don't expect it to actually happen. It's an interesting edge case which will hopefully be helpful for future refinements of the models, but it catches our attention because both major forecast models agree and the implications if it was an accurate forecast would be very scary. this is only 7 days out though, models are generally much better starting around then. still, the absolute temps shouldn’t be taken as gospel.
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Jun 22, 2021 01:09
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Enjoy 185 degrees, Californailures!
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Jun 22, 2021 01:33
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Zarin posted:Interesting, thanks for that! As someone who's lived here forever you'll be fine. As of now nobody even died in last night's storm.
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Jun 22, 2021 01:55
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hobbesmaster posted:usually GFS and euro don’t agree with crazy stuff like that Yeah having the major models agree on a forecast like this is uh, *tugs collar*
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Jun 22, 2021 02:28
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Kazinsal posted:https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1406022372109418497 The thermometer says... 3.6 Roentgen... hmm.
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Jun 22, 2021 06:16
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Source4Leko posted:As someone who's lived here forever you'll be fine. As of now nobody even died in last night's storm. Heh, thanks! I moved up from downstate though, so I'm plenty familiar with the topic. And, truth be told, my house down there wasn't really great from a tornado-defense perspective either (only half the "basement" was underground, windows everywhere). The only thing that's really odd for me here is that with all the buildings, I'd have no hope of seeing if anything was coming (if it even came from my side of the building; I only have windows on the South and West walls) I wandered through the stairwell and looked at the balconies; there is a lot of steel and concrete in those places, and the beams sticking out of the wall supporting the balcony are pretty thick steel C-channel, so I'd suspect that's what the rest of the floors are supported with. So, yeah, probably fine, but maybe I was marginally too cavalier last night.  Edit: I should really get better about learning where a good place for up-to-date radar is, and better practice at reading it
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Jun 22, 2021 06:29
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Kazinsal posted:https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1406022372109418497 Death Valley II
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Jun 22, 2021 06:32
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I'm sure the inevitable flight of climate refugees from California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas will be managed well and fairly by the Federal Govhahahahahahhahahahasdhjsdfhsdfjsfhsdhahhahsahahaha. Looking forward to millions of displaced red-staters being "persuaded" to relocate into blue bastions, too.
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Jun 22, 2021 06:35
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BIG HEADLINE posted:I'm sure the inevitable flight of climate refugees from California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas will be managed well and fairly by the Federal Govhahahahahahhahahahasdhjsdfhsdfjsfhsdhahhahsahahaha. The government will unite the American people into a nationalist fascist unity when people from Africa, the Middle East and South American flee to America/Europe for nefarious reasons like not wanting to loving die to famine.
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Jun 22, 2021 06:38
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The state of Jefferson welcomes all.
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Jun 22, 2021 06:42
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I checked back on that thread and a couple things caught my eye: https://twitter.com/bradwxnorcal/status/1406301088446238721?s=21 Also, apparently some people don’t trust the 06z or 18z runs?
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Jun 22, 2021 07:11
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One of the runs is now claiming 108-110 F in the Vancouver, BC area which would utterly obliterate our previous heat records by 10-12 degrees F. Numbers hold similarly throughout the BC interior, which is terrifying because the interior is primarily old growth forest aka several hundred thousand square kilometres of not-yet-realized wildfires.
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Jun 22, 2021 09:16
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every single tree will burn until there are none left
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Jun 22, 2021 09:52
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Maybe I'm wrong, but my gut reaction is that most records get beat a bit at a time, not just completely btfo'd in a widespread, attention-grabbing way. That is to say, the model is probably wrong. A couple of those spots might beat their high by 1-2 F, and will continue to do so over time in such a way that most people probably won't notice.
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Jun 22, 2021 09:59
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Zarin posted:Maybe I'm wrong, but my gut reaction is that most records get beat a bit at a time, not just completely btfo'd in a widespread, attention-grabbing way. God I hope this ends up being the the case, most of my friends don't have AC and/or work in places that aren't air conditioned or are outdoors and I'd really like it if the people I care about didn't all die of heat stroke
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Jun 22, 2021 10:05
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Luneshot posted:
That's old dumb thinking. People used to think that cause there was no new weather balloon data, the "off" runs were less accurate. To an extent, that was true decades ago. Now the difference is negligible. There is so much additional data that goes into models that the accuracy of the latest run vs the previous one is much larger than any difference between 00/12 and 06/18. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/longterm/ Smarter meteorologists use ensemble data and don't rely on a single deterministic run. Ensembles extend the forecast accuracy by 1-2 days.
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Jun 22, 2021 11:55
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Zarin posted:Maybe I'm wrong, but my gut reaction is that most records get beat a bit at a time, not just completely btfo'd in a widespread, attention-grabbing way. Two years ago some heat records were broken in Europe by more than 3°C, so it happened before.
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Jun 22, 2021 12:10
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The GFS and EPS ensemble mean of 850 mb temp anomalies is +15C in just five days. This isn't an issue with one model spitting out bad data. Normal for late June around the PacNW is 20-25C, so forecast is say 35C at 850. That mixes down to a surface temp of roughly 115-120F. That's right inline with the forecast inland temps (like Spokane). Of course it'll be cooler on the coast but all-time records definitely possible. Even the NWS Spokane office is saying this is a Big Deal. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXAFDOTX&wfo=otx
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Jun 22, 2021 12:11
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I see you, idiot disc golfers: https://twitter.com/NWS_BaltWash/status/1407318302733615104?s=19
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Jun 22, 2021 13:51
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seems like running for cover is actually deadly by that chart lmao 37 deaths in 14 years? this is america honey.
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Jun 22, 2021 13:58
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SirPablo posted:The GFS and EPS ensemble mean of 850 mb temp anomalies is +15C in just five days. This isn't an issue with one model spitting out bad data. Normal for late June around the PacNW is 20-25C, so forecast is say 35C at 850. That mixes down to a surface temp of roughly 115-120F. That's right inline with the forecast inland temps (like Spokane). Of course it'll be cooler on the coast but all-time records definitely possible. I'm Climate Proof Duluth sitting pretty in totally average temperatures E: that url is boned
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Jun 22, 2021 16:06
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https://twitter.com/ai6yrham/status/1407323675565510662
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Jun 22, 2021 16:23
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100-105 isn't apocalyptic if it's a dry heat, I wonder if Portland is near enough to the ocean to get some humidity, though. Since it's on the West side of the mountains I'm guessing it's probably not looking so good. Wet bulb event in Portland lol
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Jun 22, 2021 16:37
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OK baizuo posted:100-105 isn't apocalyptic if it's a dry heat, I wonder if Portland is near enough to the ocean to get some humidity, though. Since it's on the West side of the mountains I'm guessing it's probably not looking so good. it was a big problem last heat wave because a ton of the homes there dont have any AC, people dont even have window units
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Jun 22, 2021 16:42
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and the houses are probably old and lovely with no good insulation while solely relying on constant heating in the winter to not freeze to death which is going to be really bad with the heatwave 
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Jun 22, 2021 17:21
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