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Gaius Marius
Oct 9, 2012

Dangan Ronpa games aren't good as mysteries, the Metaplot is garbage, and the character work wears thin fast.

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Heroic Yoshimitsu
Jan 15, 2008

Danganronpa is a really fun series, I would definitely recommend them. But they are very different from Umineko.

Ytlaya
Nov 13, 2005

Raelle posted:

EDIT: Oh, to put it another way - Lion as a symbol is actually really important here. Lion is the "miracle scenario" for Yasu in which she is able to attain happiness, a concept she's thrilled to sign off on - and yet Lion still lives on the island, is probably bound to it in some way or another for life, and does not have and never WILL have any of the romances that Shannon, Kanon, and Beatrice do. So why is it Lion and Lion's circumstances that Yasu yearns for, seeing it as her sole potential escape?

I was under the impression that Lion is intended to actually be a faithful representation of how Yasu ends up if she wasn't dropped of the cliff. And this also explains why Lion wouldn't have any romantic interest in their cousins - they would have been aware of the family relationship long beforehand. If it was an idealized thing, it doesn't seem to make sense that Lion still ends up getting killed. And Lion being killed would still be a very realistic possibility in such a situation, since all the other adult Ushiromiya siblings would have a clear motive to hate (and ultimately kill) Lion; a lot of their animosity towards each other would just be focused on Lion as the main inheritor, at least until Lion was out of the picture. But that obviously isn't something Yasu would imagine as an "ideal life."

Dr. Video Games 0031
Jul 17, 2004

I'm a big fan of danganronpa, but as you can see it's quite divisive. I second the notion that they are survival thrillers more than mysteries, even though the games have gameplay that's specifically focused on you solving mysteries. I think the second and third games function somewhat better as mysteries, but they're still pretty much just mindless fun. It's a game series that's not afraid to say gently caress it and do whatever the hell it wants. You have to go in expecting it to be little more than a dumb spectacle.

Ytlaya
Nov 13, 2005

All the negatives people point out about Dangan Ronpa are correct, but I still found the games very entertaining.

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!


Grimey Drawer
I don't think the ace attorney games are particularly good at being mysteries either, I think any game where you don't get the clues until the trial is gonna inherently not be great as a mystery, when you essentially have 5 seconds to solve it before the main character does

They're fun though!

I like them more than DR for sure which is compelling but relies a lot on dumb poo poo and also there's a lot of points especially with the punishments where it's just like, is this some sort of Umineko metanarrative thing happening here, how is this punishment happening, where is it happening, etc

Like for some reason a punishment happens in what is depicted as a football field sized rollercoaster or something even though you are locked in a school building, poo poo like that. It's not something I'm super hung up on I just never could figure out what is meant to be being depicted there in terms of what's really happening.

Nate RFB
Jan 17, 2005

Clapping Larry

Stefan Prodan posted:

I don't think the ace attorney games are particularly good at being mysteries either, I think any game where you don't get the clues until the trial is gonna inherently not be great as a mystery, when you essentially have 5 seconds to solve it before the main character does
I think when it works well it does so in these sort of games more for gameplay reasons rather than narrative ones; both AA and DR rely on the trial "mechanics" for such gameplay to work and so you and the characters have to learn things on the fly during them. It's a nice hit of endorphins when the music cuts out in AA because you selected the right piece of evidence in a cross-examination. An example of where this goes in the complete opposite direction is something like Paradise Killer where you go into the trial with whatever evidence you managed to find and the actual trial is just going through the motions on getting people convicted which I'm sure some people liked but I definitely prefer the AA approach.

I think when I or someone else say that AA has better mysteries than DR it usually comes down to a lack of satisfying throughlines on how they are solved (the DR minigames despite being way more involved are so much less fun than a simple well-executed AA cross-examination) and how while both shoot for the moon on making wholly convoluted murders AA at least usually knocks it out of the park with their cases at least once or twice per game (pretty much every final case in the series lands) whereas no one I feel ever talks about specific DR murders in the same way as being memorable.

Mix.
Jan 24, 2021

Huh? What?


I think the other big thing with DR vs AA is that like 4/5 of the time the victims in the AA cases are basically irrelevant, its just Some Dude and you either don't know them beforehand or know them for all of like twenty minutes and then they're dead, so there's a lot more weight put into the recurring characters instead- the prosecutors and some of the killers are memorable, but you don't exactly have people lining up to talk about how much they love shelly de killer or glen elg or whathaveyou. DR, on the other hand, has a set cast with very few additions, so having the 'someone I might like could be next!!!' vibe gives a completely different energy to going through the motions in the first third of each chapter, but the actual investigation itself isn't nearly as memorable- people care WHO died, not necessarily HOW they died

Snooze Cruise
Feb 16, 2013

hey look,
a post
yeah like even the bad cases in ace attorney has poo poo like finding the murder weapon under Acro's blanket in the middle of trial

Mix.
Jan 24, 2021

Huh? What?


Snooze Cruise posted:

yeah like even the bad cases in ace attorney has the entire pedophile circus case lets be loving honest

ftfy

(seriously why the gently caress were multiple adult men lusting over the loving 14yo that case should be thrown in the trash forever :gonk: )

Snooze Cruise
Feb 16, 2013

hey look,
a post
you didn't ftfy that for me at all and honestly feels gross that you change my words in this context because the subject here does bother me

Nate RFB
Jan 17, 2005

Clapping Larry

Mix. posted:

I think the other big thing with DR vs AA is that like 4/5 of the time the victims in the AA cases are basically irrelevant, its just Some Dude and you either don't know them beforehand or know them for all of like twenty minutes and then they're dead, so there's a lot more weight put into the recurring characters instead- the prosecutors and some of the killers are memorable, but you don't exactly have people lining up to talk about how much they love shelly de killer or glen elg or whathaveyou. DR, on the other hand, has a set cast with very few additions, so having the 'someone I might like could be next!!!' vibe gives a completely different energy to going through the motions in the first third of each chapter, but the actual investigation itself isn't nearly as memorable- people care WHO died, not necessarily HOW they died
I think there's a double edged sword to this though, because if you want to give any semblance of an arc and nuance to a character in DR (which, lol) you wind up either telegraphing it so hard you basically render it toothless for the case in question or you wind up undercutting whatever writing you had in place in the first place for seemingly only shock value and it winds up feeling very exploitative. I'd definitely sacrifice that for the nobody victims (which isn't always true, there's often a good amount of emotionally resonant backstory in them) in AA because it meant that you could build up a strong stable of main and supporting characters. Also speak for yourself, *I* love Shelly de Killer :colbert:

Snooze Cruise posted:

yeah like even the bad cases in ace attorney has poo poo like finding the murder weapon under Acro's blanket in the middle of trial
One of the most famous good examples being of course metal detector on Von Karma. Hype af.

Mix.
Jan 24, 2021

Huh? What?


Snooze Cruise posted:

you didn't ftfy that for me at all and honestly feels gross that you change my words in this context because the subject here does bother me

i misinterpreted what you said as a 'and this is a bad thing' statement, that's on me. sorry

i mostly just want that case scrubbed from existence because it also bothers me, a lot

Snooze Cruise
Feb 16, 2013

hey look,
a post
also yeah people do talk about how much they love the killers in phoneix wright i think that one is off the mark— its more then some

like Damon Gant and Dahlia Hawthorne are iconic

Snooze Cruise fucked around with this message at 02:09 on Jun 22, 2021

MegaZeroX
Dec 11, 2013

"I'm Jack Frost, ho! Nice to meet ya, hee ho!"



Yeah Shelly De Killer is rad. IDK why you used him as an example rather than some random victim like Jack Hammer or Dustin Prince.

Mix.
Jan 24, 2021

Huh? What?


also i said "some" of the killers, obviously the "final boss" killers are memorable, and people remember stuff like the iconic breakdown animations or poo poo like furio tigre. but i mean the more mundane ones like richard wellington or ted tonate. like you'd recognize them and go 'oh hey, them', but they arent necessarily fan favorites or anything. even ones that you'd think would have more presence like dee vasquez are kinda just. there. my point was more in terms of like, staying power, the danganronpa cast has a lot more evenly distributed fan interest

Snooze Cruise
Feb 16, 2013

hey look,
a post
They should do Franziska Investigations like they did with Edgeworth and bring back Adrian Andrews as the assistant/gf...

Mix.
Jan 24, 2021

Huh? What?


also just to be clear i like ace attorney more than i do DR. this isnt me trying to do some weird own or anything. i just think the wildly different ways people interact w/ the series is neat :shrug:

Snooze Cruise
Feb 16, 2013

hey look,
a post

Mix. posted:

richard wellington

that one is a bad example because he is pretty memorial imo, especially the design

Nate RFB
Jan 17, 2005

Clapping Larry

Mix. posted:

also just to be clear i like ace attorney more than i do DR. this isnt me trying to do some weird own or anything. i just think the wildly different ways people interact w/ the series is neat :shrug:
Yeah that's cool. I think with the thing I quoted it was just related to a few frustrations that I've had with DR over the years which is absolutely a very subjective sort of thing.

Snooze Cruise
Feb 16, 2013

hey look,
a post
i would never want people to reboot columbo but in the right hands i would be fine with columbo video games in the style of ace attoreny...

MegaZeroX
Dec 11, 2013

"I'm Jack Frost, ho! Nice to meet ya, hee ho!"



I love both Danganronpa and I think comparing them is a little silly since they both are very different in tone, style, and gameplay. I appreciate both in different ways.

Snooze Cruise
Feb 16, 2013

hey look,
a post
the tricky part of a columbo game though is that often columbo tricks you, the audience, too :thinking_emoji:

Raelle
Jan 15, 2008

Even I...

Ytlaya posted:

I was under the impression that Lion is intended to actually be a faithful representation of how Yasu ends up if she wasn't dropped of the cliff. And this also explains why Lion wouldn't have any romantic interest in their cousins - they would have been aware of the family relationship long beforehand. If it was an idealized thing, it doesn't seem to make sense that Lion still ends up getting killed. And Lion being killed would still be a very realistic possibility in such a situation, since all the other adult Ushiromiya siblings would have a clear motive to hate (and ultimately kill) Lion; a lot of their animosity towards each other would just be focused on Lion as the main inheritor, at least until Lion was out of the picture. But that obviously isn't something Yasu would imagine as an "ideal life."

Umineko complete spoilers: There's room to read it either way, but I actually side more with how you see it - that's why I added the bit about "Yasu is thrilled to sign off on it". Clair gives Lion her blessings, describes Lion as an incredible dream for her, and Bern also talks about how Yasu dreamed of "Ushiromiya Lion" and that the Lion she found in the Sea of Fragments was almost just like she imagined. Lion as a person and his circumstances obviously aren't actually crystal-clear perfect - far from it, in some ways - which helps makes the character very likable to me, but it's pretty clear Yasu still sees him as 'the only scenario I can imagine truly being happy in.'"

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

If you're unclear on the Umineko culprit's motives I strongly recommend replaying episode 2. In retrospect there are a lot of scenes where they monologue about how they feel and why they're doing the murders.

Gato
Feb 1, 2012

Finished Umineko 4 and the incredibly long tea party. Haven't done ??? yet but I have too many thoughts. CIA memo incoming:

It’s pretty cool if ballsy to explain your mysteries without actually explaining them, for lack of a better way of putting it. Apart from Eva in Chapter 3 (apparently; I still have my doubts about Hideyoshi and we know she didn’t kill Nanjo) all of Battler’s burning blue truths don’t actually tell you who the killer is! Plus some of them really strain the bounds of credibility – coordinated simultaneous triple headshots? Edible bombs? Rhetorical question: when Beatrice refuses to contest a blue truth, is she doing it because that’s the real answer, or just because Battler’s impressed her? (Also on reviewing my red text transcript she actually confirms a lot less than it seems at the time.) It’s not a criticism – I like how we’ve been slowly given the pieces so it feels like the answers are always just around the corner. One thing that’s been conspicuously missing so far is motive, at least for anyone except Eva – I’m guessing the second half of the game is going to give some insight into why so many different people on Rokkenjima are apparently capable of multiple murders.

It’s also unsettling to realise that almost nothing we’ve seen so far in the game world can be confirmed to have actually happened as presented, and the only reliable information we have is the crime scenes and the red words. Obviously I’ve been treating the fantasy battles as metaphorical, and I had my suspicions about unreliable narration from the very first chapter. But the revelation that Kinzo was always dead casts doubt on every scene involving him, just like how the confirmation of 17 people in all games undermines everything involving human Beatrice in Chapters 2 and 4. Yet human Beatrice definitely exists in some sense – her exchange with meta-Beatrice near the end of Chapter 4 seems to confirm that they’re different entities – so who the hell is she? And how much of literally everything we’ve seen even happened?

Random thoughts and speculation:
1. So what’s Nanjo’s deal anyway? Does he know that Kinzo’s dead? If so, why is he at the conference? If not, when does he find out? He knows about Kuwadorian, but what does he know about Beatrice? I can’t figure out if he’s a peripheral character like Gohda or if he’s going to be critical to what’s going on.

2. Battler’s proposal that ‘Kinzo’ is a heritable title logically begs the question of who became the new Kinzo in the fourth game. (Of course that assumes it was the correct explanation – the red text only confirms that “everyone at the conference acknowledged the presence of Kinzo” which feels very open to interpretation.) But if he’s right… tenuous theory incoming. The only person who I can see being accepted as the new ‘Kinzo’ is Krauss – after all in the first two games the siblings have basically agreed that he can become the Head as long as he pays them off. So at the dinner Krauss reveals that Kinzo is dead and the siblings acknowledge him as the new ‘Kinzo’. However one way or another he ends up blowing heads off in the dining room, killing all the other claimants, his late father’s right-hand man Genji, and his wife for some reason. He coerces Nanjo into taking him to Kuwadorian, Shannon and Kanon defer to him as the new boss, and Kyrie… haven’t worked that part out yet. At some point yet another fight breaks out, and Shannon, Kanon and Nanjo are killed trying to escape through the tunnel, but Kyrie and Krauss make it to the mansion before they die. It’s convoluted, but it has the advantage of explaining the initial choice of victims, plus the whole pitfall situation – after all there’s no need for magic drugs (also sedatives don’t work like that!!!) if everyone went together by mutual agreement. The only independent verification of them teleporting to Kuwadorian is what Kyrie tells Battler, and if she was in on the plan she has reason to obfuscate what happened.

3. Kanon and Shannon have once again shot up the suspicion rankings. They know about the game repeating, they presumably knew about Kinzo being dead, and Shannon covered for Battler’s hazy memory suggesting she knows something about that too. We’re told that Kanon is basically a ninja, and Beatrice doesn’t actually rule out the killer hiding in the room for Eva & Hideyoshi in Chapter 1. His death in that chapter is basically confirmed to be an accident (assuming furniture counts as ‘human’ for red text purposes), presumably involving the mysterious stake-driving weapon. With that in mind, two theories come to mind for the disappearing act in Chapter 2:
- Option 1: Kanon rejecting his ‘furniture’ status for Jessica counts as being ‘killed’ for red text purposes. This explains his leaving the room and reappearing later, possibly wounded by Jessica? I don’t like this one much because it feels a bit too much like a semantic sleight of hand. It also doesn’t explain what happens to him after he kills Kumasawa and Nanjo.
- Option 2: We already know that ‘Shannon’ and ‘Kanon’ are both aliases. Could it be that they’re able to swap their servant names, possibly according to the duties they’re performing? No disguises or mistaken identity involved, just Shannon Sayo taking on Kanon’s title and killing people for some reason. This one has some neat symmetry with the Kinzo-as-title proposal, and might open up some other red truths referring to ‘Shannon’ and ‘Kanon’ but I think Shannon has an alibi. Wishing I’d made extra saves along the way now so I could go back and check.

4. So Ange died in 1998, huh? I sort of guessed that was coming after the explanation that even if she saved meta-Battler she’d only be helping a hypothetical Ange in another timeline, and the fact that she’s even in the meta-world at all, but it’s still sad :( It’s probably not a big deal but it’s interesting to wonder when she died – the obvious options are either jumping from the building or being killed by Kasumi on the island. Both of them are framed as a transition from the mundane to the magical world, which could be seen as a metaphor for death. If she died in the jump, it obviously raises the question of what the deal is with the investigatory journey she goes on ‘afterwards’.

5. The twist I was worried about did indeed come to pass, namely that there is or was someone else called Ushiromiya Battler, distinct from our hero. Hero-battler is still Kinzo’s grandson, but who are his parents? Notably left ambiguous is when the two were switched - was hero-Battler raised by Asumu all along, or was real-Battler the one the cousins knew as kids but swapped six years ago for hero-Battler? Theories:
- Option 1: Rudolf got both Asumu and Kyrie pregnant at the same time (Kasumi says Rudolf was the father, although she might not be 100% reliable) and both gave birth around the same time. One of the babies was raised by Asumu, the other was given away for reasons and Kyrie was told it was stillborn. This one seems almost too straightforward and feels a bit limited in terms of narrative potential but who knows.
- Option 2: Battler is Beatrice 2’s son. This is pretty flimsy but there’s definitely some sort of personal connection between Battler and the ‘real’ Beatrice (whoever that is), presumably linked to whatever the ‘sin’ is that Battler’s forgotten. Beatrice 2’s disappearance 19 years ago leaves just enough time for her to be pregnant with Battler and give birth, although I’m not sure how the timing works wrt her apparent death. Plus if she was isolated in Kuwadorian, who was the father? Really don’t want to think about the Chinatown possibility.

That's a lot of :words:. Time to kick back, read ??? and go back and read some other people's speculation before I plunge into the second half. I'm really not much good at the mystery part but I love this game

post-??? edit: dammit, that'll teach me to jump the gun. I feel vindicated in not buying all of the blue truths, but I wasn't expecting them to get shot down so unceremoniously, and the fourth wall with it. 'No one else can go by Kanon's name' is still ambiguous as to whether that means his real name or his alias though. Also I'm not sure I buy that Beatrice was just faking her resignation at the end there, no matter what Lambdadelta thinks - I'm guessing her identity and the nature of her emotional investment Battler are going to be key to the next few episodes

Gato fucked around with this message at 21:17 on Jun 22, 2021

Gaius Marius
Oct 9, 2012

See you in twenty minutes

Gato
Feb 1, 2012

Gaius Marius posted:

See you in twenty minutes

:mad:

e: I can't see your avatar without imagine Beatrice writing your posts

Gato fucked around with this message at 21:27 on Jun 22, 2021

Feels Villeneuve
Oct 7, 2007

Setter is Better.

Snooze Cruise posted:

yeah like even the bad cases in ace attorney has poo poo like finding the murder weapon under Acro's blanket in the middle of trial

that one owned, you can accuse the Judge of hiding the murder weapon and get penalized for like 90% of your health (which you totally deserve)


I actually like the circus case, it just has a lovely theme. Murderer has no motive because he killed the wrong guy is a twist they just had to use at some point

People also complain about getting penalized for pushing irrelevent stuff in Moe's testimony, but you get warned, it's good when AA breaks from the "press every statement no matter what" formula, and you totally deserve it if you press Moe saying "I was pooped".

Feels Villeneuve fucked around with this message at 21:25 on Jun 22, 2021

Feels Villeneuve
Oct 7, 2007

Setter is Better.

Mix. posted:

I think the other big thing with DR vs AA is that like 4/5 of the time the victims in the AA cases are basically irrelevant, its just Some Dude and you either don't know them beforehand or know them for all of like twenty minutes and then they're dead, so there's a lot more weight put into the recurring characters instead- the prosecutors and some of the killers are memorable, but you don't exactly have people lining up to talk about how much they love shelly de killer or glen elg or whathaveyou. DR, on the other hand, has a set cast with very few additions, so having the 'someone I might like could be next!!!' vibe gives a completely different energy to going through the motions in the first third of each chapter, but the actual investigation itself isn't nearly as memorable- people care WHO died, not necessarily HOW they died

the best AA case (and best AA villain) is one with no plot relevance. Zvarri!

Gaius Marius
Oct 9, 2012

Gato posted:

:mad:

e: I can't see your avatar without imagine Beatrice writing your posts

Gato
Feb 1, 2012

final post-chapter 4 thoughts before going to bed, after reading Procrastine's speculation (it's interesting how we've arrived at a lot of the same conclusions and the same sticking points e.g. how much of what we see in the game world can we even take at face value at this point?)

Kanon in Chapter 1 didn't die by accident or by suicide. We're also told 'no kind of human or dead person on the island could have killed Kanon!' That leaves two possibilities: 1. it was a trap. My impression from previous murders was that setting traps still counts as killing, but I can't actually find any red text to confirm that explicitly, so I'll still accept it as a possibility. 2. The use of the term 'human' is very deliberate, and doesn't include furniture. It's a bit cheap and sneaky for my liking, but that does seem to be a meaningful distinction for Beatrice.

If option 2 is the case, it blows up a whole bunch of other red statements:
(chapter 2) "Therefore, both in the case involving Jessica's room and the one involving this servant room, no humans exist that you were not aware of."
(chapter 3) "There are no more than 18 humans on this Rokkenjima!"
(chapter 3) "The one who killed Nanjo was definitely a human! A human, with their feet on the ground, held up a weapon and killed with it! Right before his eyes!"
(chapter 4) "Before now, I have proclaimed that no more than 18 humans exist on this island. I will lower that by one for Kinzo. No more than 17 humans exist on this island! That excludes any 18th person. In short, this 18th person X does not exist! This applies to all games!"


But it's contradicted by:
(chapter 3) "There are no more than 18 humans on the island. No life forms other than humans have any connection to this game. Absolutely no factors other than humans participated in this game board." So who knows.

On an unrelated note, it got lost in the general insanity but I'm wondering if I should put more weight on the fact that George explicitly states that he's prepared to kill everyone on the island. If I'm not mistaken, he's the first person to openly say anything like that - even Eva has to say it through her alter ego. Plus I've been waiting for the penny to drop about his deeply hosed-up relationship with Shannon for four whole chapters now. Definitely one to watch.

I'm going to do a post at some point about what I think is going on on a meta level because it's been bouncing around in my head for a while but I think that's enough words about seagulls for now

Gato fucked around with this message at 22:48 on Jun 22, 2021

Procrastine
Mar 30, 2011


Post- episode 4 Umineko speculation again (this is a long one)

fez_machine posted:

If you're following along with other people's speculation as I was, I highly recommend you stop reading Gaius Marius at this point. They're a little too good at figuring out mysteries and I'm very glad I forgot to check in with them for episodes 4 and 5 before I went into and finished Episode 6.

I've been reading Gato's posts but I haven't gone back to read Gaius' posts from when they were playing.

Jessica = Beatrice III turned out to be a bust, but I'm sticking with "Beatrice III exists" and "Battler is Beatrice III's brother". I think any person being Beatrice III all along runs into similar problems with Natsuhi's death in episode 1, so instead, Beatrice III killed and replaced someone before the start of the game and their corpse in episode 1 is the real person's corpse, leaving Beatrice III free to go kill Natsuhi. While I could check every person's plausibility for this, I'm leaning towards Kanon? Beatrice III's ability to mimic Kanon without anyone getting suspicious is not my problem.

Side note about Eva and Hideyoshi's deaths: door chains are designed to be exactly the length needed to hook them while the door is closed, right? I was thinking about whether it's possible to put the chain on from the other side by sticking your hand through the partially-open door but I don't think I've seen a door chain in person in years.

Episode 1, Kanon's death: The red text is "no kind of human or dead person on the island could have killed Kanon". This is the real Kanon's corpse, killed in advance outside of Rokkenjima.

Parlor murders: With Beatrice III no longer trapped in the study, she can easily do this. She had a secret laser light show installed in the parlor to do the glowing butterflies Maria saw. I'm not sure what the logistics of this are but hey.

Natsuhi's death: Once again, with Beatrice III free to wander, she can easily kill Natsuhi.

Episode 2! Beatrice can fix Maria's candy because Maria gave Kanon candy earlier. Either the laser light show butterfly machine is portable or she just installed them all over the goddamn place. So, the chapel murders. The culprit was inside the chapel at the time and the key didn't pass through anyone's hands between Maria receiving the key and Rosa taking it after the murders. I could argue something stupid about them taking the key with their feet instead, but no one would do that unless they knew about Beato's red text and were intentionally creating loopholes. Instead, I'll point out that Beato red-texts that the envelope Maria received is the same as the one Rosa opened. Nothing prevents Beatrice III from handing Maria an envelope containing a different key, then sneaking in while she's sleeping to open the envelope and swap the key with the chapel key after the murder.

Jessica's death: poo poo, it says "Kanon was killed in this room". Looks like it's time to backpedal! The red text for Kanon's episode 1 death was in the context of everyone having alibis, so it's not "could have killed Kanon ever" it's "could have killed Kanon in the boiler room during episode 1". Beatrice III still killed Kanon before the game, but in Jessica's room for whatever reason. Ok, we're good. There's the possibility that Jessica was killed because she figured out Kanon wasn't Kanon, but regardless of whether that's the reason she died or simply because Jessica was unlucky, by borrowing a servant's master key (probably Gohda's) Beatrice III could easily lock the room behind her.

Servant room murders: "They would never mistakenly think any other person was Kanon." Well, gently caress. This took me a while to figure out, for a moment I had a theory involving some kind of Weekend at Bernie's scenario with Kanon's corpse, but there's actually a really easy loophole: Beato never red-texted that the servants were telling the truth. Beatrice III killed Nanjo and Kumasawa and the servants just lied about seeing Kanon. The servants never mistakenly thought Beatrice III was Kanon because they knew from the start.

Natsuhi's room murders: Shannon and Gohda are in on Beatrice III's plan, as established with the servant room murders, and killed George then themselves. Actually, thinking about it, Gohda being considered below the other servants and not being allowed to see Kinzo could be a sign that he's not actually in on the plan? The others might just have forced him to go along with their cover story for the servant room murders and Gohda's just too much of a coward to say no? If Shannon's the only one here who's part of the plan, maybe Beatrice III killed George and Gohda and just had her commit suicide, even if the plan involves George dying it's hard to see Shannon directly killing him. Then again, who knows, if ol' harmless-seeming Nanjo is part of the conspiracy to hide Kinzo's death maybe Shannon is secretly evil and hosed up.

Post-golden land deaths: Beatrice III can just kill them however she wants at this point. Probably tells Battler her backstory and how he's her brother in Kinzo's study before killing him.

Episode 3: Beatrice III is behind the first twilight, tossing in Kanon's corpse along with Kinzo's. I don't remember (and didn't write down) if it's mentioned who finds the keys on the bodies, so I'm going with Nanjo being the one who faked finding a key that he secretly had with him like Battler claimed. Seems like a bad plan to kill off all but one of your conspirators at the start but what do I know. Most murders after this were done by Eva, but Hideyoshi, George, Nanjo and maybe Jessica were killed by Beatrice III. Not sure how Eva avoided being killed, she probably didn't kill Beatrice III since pointing out the body of a mystery person on the island to the police would probably help reduce suspicion on her. She'd say Beatrice III killed everyone and she killed her in self-defense, there'd still be people who suspect her but less so than if she never mentioned it.

Episode 4: Unsurprisingly, I'm going to say the new Kinzo is Beatrice III. After taking the survivors to the dungeon, she disguises herself as Kanon again and pretends to have been captured with them. After the phone call, she uses a secret setup to exit the prison and do the Kinzo scene and the more I think about this the less sense it makes with Kanon being Beatrice III. Like, why would Kyrie not mention that when she's telling Battler everything else that she saw.


Gato posted:

2. Battler’s proposal that ‘Kinzo’ is a heritable title logically begs the question of who became the new Kinzo in the fourth game. (Of course that assumes it was the correct explanation – the red text only confirms that “everyone at the conference acknowledged the presence of Kinzo” which feels very open to interpretation.) But if he’s right… tenuous theory incoming. The only person who I can see being accepted as the new ‘Kinzo’ is Krauss – after all in the first two games the siblings have basically agreed that he can become the Head as long as he pays them off. So at the dinner Krauss reveals that Kinzo is dead and the siblings acknowledge him as the new ‘Kinzo’. However one way or another he ends up blowing heads off in the dining room, killing all the other claimants, his late father’s right-hand man Genji, and his wife for some reason. He coerces Nanjo into taking him to Kuwadorian, Shannon and Kanon defer to him as the new boss, and Kyrie… haven’t worked that part out yet. At some point yet another fight breaks out, and Shannon, Kanon and Nanjo are killed trying to escape through the tunnel, but Kyrie and Krauss make it to the mansion before they die. It’s convoluted, but it has the advantage of explaining the initial choice of victims, plus the whole pitfall situation – after all there’s no need for magic drugs (also sedatives don’t work like that!!!) if everyone went together by mutual agreement. The only independent verification of them teleporting to Kuwadorian is what Kyrie tells Battler, and if she was in on the plan she has reason to obfuscate what happened.

Ok, slight change: the new Kinzo is Krauss and Kanon is still Beatrice III. ...but actually, any "Kinzo is a title and they acknowledged 'a' Kinzo but not 'the' Kinzo" theory runs into the problem of "Why would Kyrie say 'Kinzo' to Battler on the phone and not the name Battler would actually recognize them as". Even in the case of "Beatrice III is the new Kinzo, she's just not also Kanon" where Kyrie might not know Beatrice's non-Kinzo name, you'd think she'd say "By the way, the Kinzo I'm talking about is a different Kinzo than your grandfather". But Kinzo is dead. So, either the conversation we see is a version edited by Beato, or Kyrie has some reason to be unhelpful to Battler. I think the second one is more interesting, since the new mystery of why Kyrie would do this is more interesting to me than "Oh, that whole conversation was made up by Beato. All the stuff about how magic is real and Battler should believe in it? Beato." So, why is Kyrie helping Beatrice III? Because she told Kyrie about Battler's sin and it's so great that Kyrie is willing to help Beatrice against Battler.

If Kyrie's lying (or being dubbed over by Beato), Jessica could be lying too. At this point, what actual evidence do we even have of anything that happened in episode 4 beyond "everyone died at some point"? I don't like it, at this point I could write anything and there's no real way to disprove it. The only murder-related red text is about Kanon being the first to die among Kyrie's group (he died first because he was dead before the game started). That red text follows up with "In short, he was the 9th victim", this is because Beatrice III killed 8 other people before the start of the game, Kinzo among them. That aside, if you don't trust the phone calls (and I can't trust the phone calls, because why would Kyrie say "Kinzo" to Battler), there's really nothing left. "Kyrie's phone call was edited by Beato but the only change she made is replacing 'Krauss' (or whoever) with 'Kinzo' (and maybe changing 'four in jail' to 'five in jail')" keeps the mysteries of everything else Kyrie says, like the golden thread, on the table, but why should I believe that Beato is limiting herself to minor changes if she's going to edit conversations Battler is hearing? I know Umineko is well written and will have satisfactory answers to stuff like "who is the new Kinzo" instead of going "actually that entire mystery was made up", but I don't see what reason I would have without people who've read it before saying "trust Umineko to stick the landing" to believe that it's a real mystery and not people lying to Battler. It's frustrating!

Technically no one specifies that Kinzo is alive, just that he was acknowledged as Kinzo, but once again, I can't imagine Kyrie saying she saw Kinzo without mentioning that it was his dead body. I guess it could just be a similar case to Battler seeing Kinzo at the end of episode 2, but that was moments before everything gets extremely magic, while this is throughout the entire episode. I don't know, I just can't come up with an explanation that I'm satisfied with. I even used chapter select to check, it was kind of annoying because it happens at the end of a chapter so even with dialogue skip it takes a while to reach, it's a narration saying she told Battler she saw Kinzo in the dining room, no direct words from Kyrie, so I guess it could just be the narrator lying rather than Kyrie but if the narrator is papering over Kyrie saying she saw Kinzo dead or she saw someone with Kinzo's title why would Battler continue to talk about Kinzo being behind it afterwards god I don't know

Does "the golden thread is a lie told by Kyrie" count as a satisfying answer? On the one hand, it feels like a cop-out, but on the other, there's something vaguely clever about "the only evidence of this existing is someone saying it does" being the solution. But it feels like a refusal to write a real answer. I keep repeating myself but I'm just really stuck on this, sorry. Anyway I have no real ideas about what the thread could be beyond "some kind of advanced technology BS that might as well be magic", and that's not satisfying either. I think I'm just going to give up on solving this one and hope Ryu07 came up with something cool that'll make me go "drat, that's really clever".

Anyway Battler never finds Kanon's body and that's evidence towards Beatrice III being Kanon I guess

Jessica knowing about George's death (assuming we're not just saying that was a lie) could just be whoever's with her in Ronove's place having her look at the window to see George die I guess. Even with the rain, she could maybe see someone shooting George and him falling over? I'm not an expert on visibility in typhoons. Maria's death was Beatrice giving her poisoned tea and Maria going "Wow, thanks for this tea Beatrice" and dying. I like Maria but she would absolutely fall for that. Kumasawa killed Gohda, tied the gun to a string that lead out the window with someone there to pull it back, hung the two of them, shot herself, then the person outside pulled the string to get the gun out of the shed. Writing this out like this makes it seem ridiculous but that's what I'm going with. Depending on how the window works it's possible for it to be a type that you can lock from outside, like it's got a latch that you could close from the outside by slamming the window shut.

The weird money conspiracy Ange discovers in episode 4 is part of how Beatrice III convinced the servants to go along with her plan. Sure, this plan involves you dying, Kumasawa, but your family gets a bunch of money! I say this, but there's still some questions left. First, why give Ange money? It could point to her parents being with Beatrice III, but I think I'm going to go with it being a weird attempt to muddy the waters. If only the servants' families got money, if someone caught wind of it it'd seem suspicious, but if everyone's families get money, no one knows what the hell's going on. Second, this is pretty minor, but did Beatrice send money to anyone for the people who don't have surviving relatives? She could send money to spouses' families for the Ushiromiyas, but Shannon and Kanon are orphans. Do they just get passed over? drat, sucks to be them I guess.

Most of the other weird 1998 poo poo can be blamed on Beatrice III acting behind the scenes and being mysterious. I don't have any real idea what Battler's sin is, and I'm not even sure if it's our Battler's sin or Asumu-Battler's sin. For Battler to believe himself to be the real Battler, I feel like the switch had to happen at a young age, but what kind of sin does a baby have? That would point to the sin being from our Battler, but it's strongly implied by both Beatrices and Battler's inability to remember it that it's Asumu-Battler's sin. I don't loving know. Whatever the sin is, it ties strongly into why Beatrice III is doing all this.

So, the final mystery: episode 4 Battler is the only one alive on the island, yet he's about to be killed. I'd say Beatrice III, but no, he's the only one alive. I guess Beatrice III died an accidental death, and then later Battler also died an accidental death. Feels anticlimactic but there you go. God, can you imagine setting up this whole massive conspiracy, getting 99% of the way there, and then dying by tripping down some stairs right at the end? How embarrassing for Beatrice.

Conspiracy recap: Genji, Shannon and Nanjo are all in on it, whether Kanon was in on it is somewhat immaterial if he's dead. Shannon and Kanon knowing about the witch's game time loop is just Beato's take on them knowing about the conspiracy. Kumasawa is probably in on it, Gohda might not be and instead just being bullied into keeping quiet when needed. Krauss knows about Kinzo's death and thinks he knows what's going on, but he doesn't actually know very much, and especially doesn't know the plan involves him dying.


Sorry if that became a rambling mess. Are there any mysteries from episodes 1-4 I've forgotten to address, or am I ready to go into episode 5 and promptly have all my theories disproven?

Meowywitch
Jan 14, 2010

Fight for all that is beautiful in the world


Oh hey, somebody brought up Your Turn To Die a bit earlier, and I didn't know both a manga adaptation and game 3-1b have came out since I last paid attention to it

It actually seems 3-1b came out only just a month ago and I'm now trying to figure out if YTTD is a completed project or not without horribly spoiling myself

Tired Moritz
Mar 25, 2012

wish Lowtax would get tired of YOUR POSTS

(n o i c e)
it's not yet done. there's just one more part, apparently?

Nep-Nep
May 15, 2004

Just one more thing!

I'm glad this image exists because this same thought has been living in my head for awhile now.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Yeah it's not complete yet. 3-2 (which may or may not have multiple parts) will probably finish the game.

Meowywitch
Jan 14, 2010

Fight for all that is beautiful in the world


the Your Turn To Die manga also apparently got officially translated

I ordered a copy off amazon last night

Gaius Marius
Oct 9, 2012

I wish Yu No would give me back the old interface, clicking on poo poo when the window is the size of a postage stamp is...difficult

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Dr. Video Games 0031
Jul 17, 2004

Time to bust out the windows magnifier. I've read a number of ancient, low-res VNs with that crappy tool.

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