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https://twitter.com/MarkMazzettiNYT/status/1407476488207843329?s=19
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Jun 23, 2021 03:24
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Lol. Of course. https://twitter.com/ScottMStedman/status/1112619816458706944?s=19
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Jun 23, 2021 04:06
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Count Roland posted:He's been a hardliner loyal to the revolution from the start. I could see him becoming the Supreme Leader (during one of the debates one of his opponents mused maybe he'd leave the office to take up the higher role), but I don't see how or why he'd dissolve the presidency. Both Supreme Leaders have been Ayatollahs, though, even though I guess it's no longer a requirement, and he's not one, even though he likes to call himself one.
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Jun 23, 2021 04:14
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I mean, a Saudi pilot training at one of our AFBs in Florida loving enacted a mass shooting and murdered American servicemen, and the Trump administration just brushed it under the rug and memory-holed it as quickly as possible. We so badly need to sever our current relationship with KSA. Ugh.
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Jun 23, 2021 04:48
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It seems like such a no-brainer, my assumption was that Trump would break things off with the Saudis because he would only see political upsides for doing so. He certainly was anti-Saud when he was running I can only assume either A) Saudi oil is still super relevant and worth bending over backwards to accomodate them, B) Trump got offered some prime Saudi investment money for his company, or C) orb
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Jun 23, 2021 04:59
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Flavahbeast posted:It seems like such a no-brainer, my assumption was that Trump would break things off with the Saudis because he would only see political upsides for doing so. He certainly was anti-Saud when he was running How about C: the Saudis are huge in NY real estate and Trump was just paying it forward. Kushner and Mbs were big friends after the Saudis invested a huge amount into his real estate fiascos and he got a loan from them because the Saudi investment banking wing of the family didn't have a lot of partners at the time. Also rex tillerson was SOS for a whole and we know who he represents. Texas oil men. Funny enough the American side of ARAMCO
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Jun 23, 2021 06:28
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Flavahbeast posted:It seems like such a no-brainer, my assumption was that Trump would break things off with the Saudis because he would only see political upsides for doing so. He certainly was anti-Saud when he was running Mmm Trump campaign promises - a sure bet. There must be some deeper game at play here. The President wouldn't just lie?
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Jun 23, 2021 15:00
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Trump was also absurdly pro Israel, and Israel and KSA are basically allies at this point. People telling him about the way KSA helped overthrow Morsi in Egypt probably helped too.
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Jun 23, 2021 15:32
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In other news, how the hell did Pashinyan win re-election after losing the Karabakh War and iirc got chased out?
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Jun 24, 2021 01:50
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Because his opponent was like an avatar of the old ruling oligarchs that everyone still hates. Guy had already been president for ten years.
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Jun 24, 2021 02:02
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Grouchio posted:Any chance for insurrections against the upcoming Raisi regime? Assuming the election boycott does anything. Personally I think his hardline stance will drive more middle-line and prior presidential supporters to back reform/revolution. There is also a growing anti-Iranian influence movement in Iraq, with all the militia killings and so forth and people experiencing economic hardships linking it to Iran more and more. This could weirdly backfire on Iran and create a progressive movement that has more moderates join in backlash to retroactive policies the general population will see in the coming years. I also think with Biden in power he won't threaten direct military strikes stupidly like Trump which just empowers the regime propaganda, but increase sanctions every time they try to increase the nuclear program and when they continue to not engage with the anti Iranian-nuclear coalition.
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Jun 25, 2021 18:19
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https://twitter.com/LongWarJournal/status/1409896796399325191
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Jul 4, 2021 15:29
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You can’t spell „power vacuum” without “history repeating itself like failed invasions of Russia”
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Jul 5, 2021 09:09
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Isn't that mostly just people on the ground switching allegiances?
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Jul 5, 2021 18:55
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Gladi posted:Isn't that mostly just people on the ground switching allegiances? something much more. areas that were thought to be under the control of particular strongmen are just going "we give up!", without any input from their supposed bossmeng, which is indication that the hegemony maintained by america starting to undergo a catastrophic collapse, where the only real borders are guys with guns
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Jul 5, 2021 19:42
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quote:More than 1,000 Afghan soldiers have fled to neighbouring Tajikistan after clashing with Taliban militants, officials have said. quote:The retreat is the third time Afghan soldiers have fled to Tajikistan over the past three days and the fifth case over the past fortnight. In total, nearly 1,600 soldiers have crossed the border. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57720103
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Jul 5, 2021 20:56
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Gladi posted:Isn't that mostly just people on the ground switching allegiances? No. All Afghan forces outside of Kabul are collapsing. We're going to end up with a de-facto republic of Kabul. As of today the situation is even worse than when that map was posted. For the first time a plurality of the population is under Taliban control. 
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Jul 6, 2021 00:41
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It feels like this was the inevitable end, from the very beginning.
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Jul 6, 2021 00:49
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How are u posted:It feels like this was the inevitable end, from the very beginning.
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Jul 6, 2021 00:56
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Here we go boys. ANA fleeing to tjaikistan. What will their tale be in a dozen years? Will the US fund and train a new right-wing death squad out of the fleeing ANA guys? Will the Taliban crush the government and marsh on Kabul 2022?
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Jul 6, 2021 00:59
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How are u posted:It feels like this was the inevitable end, from the very beginning. Yup. Its South Vietnam all over again. We absolutely are garbage at changing power structures and nation building.
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Jul 6, 2021 01:01
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on the Long War podcast, they talked about how the biggest threat to the Taliban now was expanding too quickly, and causing an internal power struggle.
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Jul 6, 2021 01:07
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CommieGIR posted:Yup. Its South Vietnam all over again. We absolutely are garbage at changing power structures and nation building. Or is our nation-building so eurocentric that it only worked well for postwar Europe and Japan?
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Jul 6, 2021 01:14
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Afghanistan's too poor for the kinds of institutions we know how to build to work, and realistically our own institutions aren't looking so hot these days either. Having a meddling neighbor next door in Pakistan didn't help at all either, obviously, though I think that explanation probably became a convenient excuse that covered up for other problems. Staying forever wasn't the answer, and now is as good a time as any I guess, but man does the way we're leaving look kind of lovely even aside from the massive Taliban advances. Tbf there wasn't much trust between NATO/American forces and the Afghan army even before all of this, because of all the friendly fire incidents, but this all just sucks. https://twitter.com/Kathygannon/status/1412131970155491340
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Jul 6, 2021 01:22
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Grouchio posted:Or is our nation-building so eurocentric that it only worked well for postwar Europe and Japan? 
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Jul 6, 2021 01:47
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I mean there was never a real plan for nation building. The real goal was to prevent the Taliban from reforming and harboring future terrorists, which we also failed miserably at.
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Jul 6, 2021 01:56
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FlamingLiberal posted:I mean there was never a real plan for nation building. The real goal was to prevent the Taliban from reforming and harboring future terrorists, which we also failed miserably at. Yeah this whole conflict was mismanaged and relegated to the back burner from jump. A good example to people who advocate for American intervention - we will pretend until we ultimately fail without ever really taking the necessary steps to ever get close to success.
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Jul 6, 2021 03:34
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It really depends on the goal of the intervention. We're quite good at blowing things up, but it is so much easier to destroy than to build and nurture.
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Jul 6, 2021 05:50
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FlamingLiberal posted:I mean there was never a real plan for nation building. The real goal was to prevent the Taliban from reforming and harboring future terrorists, which we also failed miserably at. I think the constant mass murder followed by cover ups didn't help either. The U.S. set a very low moral bar to surpass when in fought the taliban ... and yet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Shinwar_shooting quote:United States Marines, fleeing the scene of a car bomb attack and ambush by Afghan militants, fired on people and vehicles surrounding them, according to initial reports, killing as many as 19 civilians and injuring around 50 more. The exact casualty figures have not been firmly established. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_raid_on_Narang quote:The raiding party allegedly dragged the victims out of their beds and shot them in the head or chest. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raid_on_Khataba quote:U.S. Military officials implied the three women were killed prior to the raid by family members, reporting that the women had been found "tied up, gagged and killed." But investigators sent by the Afghan government reported, based on interviews and pictures of the scene, that the special operation forces removed bullets from the victims' bodies and cleaned their wounds as part of an attempted cover-up. NATO denied this allegation, and Afghan investigator Merza Mohammed Yarmand stated, "We can not confirm it as we had not been able to autopsy the bodies." The US military later admitted that the three women were killed by the special operations unit during the raid. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kandahar_massacre quote:The massacre occurred in the early hours of 11 March 2012, when United States Army Staff Sergeant Robert Bales murdered sixteen civilians and wounded six others in the Panjwayi District of Kandahar Province, Afghanistan. Nine of his victims were children, and eleven of the dead were from the same family. Turns out deploying Americans to countries with brown people never ends well on the hearts and minds front, and psychotic killers don't make good institution builders. Oh well, better luck next time. Maybe it'll go different if we try a south american country?
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Jul 6, 2021 09:20
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God knows how many lives lost and destroyed for Bush Jr to look like a man of action.
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Jul 6, 2021 10:12
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Grouchio posted:I wonder how we could've handled Afghanistan differently as to not be garbage at nation building. literally just doing what we pretended we were doing and building hospitals and functional infrastructure would have helped. as bad as all the various massacres, death squads, Shujoyi, etc were the Afghans I know mostly shrug at that part, but the country is barely loving livable even by their incredibly low loving standards. for all the trillions america dumped into nation building, outside of a few potemkin show areas remarkably little has been built. In 2014 when that MSF hospital in Kunduz was wrecked it was extremely notable because it was literally the only trauma center in that entire loving region of Afghanistan. When the contractors rebuild towns that have to be "tactically razed" what they rebuild are literally less livable than the mud shacks they replaced, or the tents the residents were forced to move into. More reliable infrastructure was built to let navy seals process chromite they bought off the taliban than was built to give people functional lives outside of central Kabul
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Jul 6, 2021 11:39
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Sinteres posted:Afghanistan's too poor for the kinds of institutions we know how to build to work, and realistically our own institutions aren't looking so hot these days either. Having a meddling neighbor next door in Pakistan didn't help at all either, obviously, though I think that explanation probably became a convenient excuse that covered up for other problems. https://www.theonion.com/u-s-quietly-slips-out-of-afghanistan-in-dead-of-night-1819572778 Almost 10 years to the date. The Onion really is prescient.
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Jul 6, 2021 11:50
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The Iraq and Afghan wars and subsequent occupation did exactly what they were supposed to, which was put taxpayer dollars into the coffers of MIC entities.
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Jul 6, 2021 12:32
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Blut posted:https://www.theonion.com/u-s-quietly-slips-out-of-afghanistan-in-dead-of-night-1819572778 God drat, The Onion hit it spot on. The current front-page headline of the BBC is: US left Bagram Airbase at night with no notice, Afghan commander says https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57682290
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Jul 6, 2021 13:01
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MiddleOne posted:God knows how many lives lost and destroyed for Bush Jr to look like a man of action. Iraq is a different story, but any plausible US president would have invaded Afghanistan. Bernie Sanders voted to authorize it at the time, though he downplays it now as a symbolic vote that didn't matter. Even aside from 9/11, Taliban controlled Afghanistan was an international pariah for a reason, and it really is awful that they're coming back to power. The US definitely made missteps over the last 20 years, and I'm not suggesting every decision along the way was made with pure motives in mind, but I do think what the US wanted for Afghanistan would have been clearly better for the country than what they're going to get. The whole situation loving sucks.
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Jul 6, 2021 14:35
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Carth Dookie posted:The Iraq and Afghan wars and subsequent occupation did exactly what they were supposed to, which was put taxpayer dollars into the coffers of MIC entities.
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Jul 6, 2021 15:03
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Sinteres posted:Iraq is a different story, but any plausible US president would have invaded Afghanistan. Bernie Sanders voted to authorize it at the time, though he downplays it now as a symbolic vote that didn't matter. They should have done the intial invasion for Al-Qeada and left.
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Jul 6, 2021 17:42
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Sinteres posted:Iraq is a different story, but any plausible US president would have invaded Afghanistan. Bernie Sanders voted to authorize it at the time, though he downplays it now as a symbolic vote that didn't matter. Right, Taliban rule was not good by any metric, and if nothing has changed then it will be just as bad. The other question is will Afghanistan become a safe haven for terrorist groups once again, in which case the war will not actually end. It doesn't seem like IS will be able to live amicably with Taliban but some Al Qaida successor cell might get along.
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Jul 6, 2021 17:46
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Vasukhani posted:They should have done the intial invasion for Al-Qeada and left. Yeah we should have been out in 2002 or 2003. What a tragedy all around.
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Jul 6, 2021 17:49
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Nenonen posted:Right, Taliban rule was not good by any metric, and if nothing has changed then it will be just as bad. The other question is will Afghanistan become a safe haven for terrorist groups once again, in which case the war will not actually end. It doesn't seem like IS will be able to live amicably with Taliban but some Al Qaida successor cell might get along. Afghanistan will have a democratic, Western-style government when they collectively want one. Right now, they've been so traumatized they just want peace and stability. The Taliban are the only ones determined to keep fighting no matter what, so they're going to win by default. It will probably take a generation or two for them to get fed up with the constraints of Islamic fundamentalism and start trying to do something about it. Maybe by the the Taliban will have chilled out a bit, as well. I think it's going to be a problem that we'll have to admit can't be solved at the moment and will have to leave it for posterity to figure out.
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Jul 6, 2021 17:53
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