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learnincurve posted:I’m posting the SAGE and NHS England’s interpretation of the graphs. No, learningcurve, you are posting your own 'interpretation' of SAGE and NHS England's graphs. Hospitalisations are not a metric by which you measure an outbreak. Rate of growth of cases is. Estimated R0 in the UK is 1.2-1.4 which is the very definition of uncontrolled. I'd say someone needs to draw you a picture but..
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Jun 24, 2021 23:48
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Blitter posted:Hospitalisations are not a metric by which you measure an outbreak. Tell that to all the governments around the world who have been using it as a metric.
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Jun 25, 2021 02:31
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In New South Wales the premier just announced "new restrictions" for the four local government area where clusters have developed, meaning that if you live or work in those areas you must remain at home unless you cannot work or study at home; for exercise; and to buy food/medicine or seek medical attention. Feels like they need a catchier, easier-to-understand name for that sort of thing but she didn't mention one.
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Jun 25, 2021 02:37
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freebooter posted:In New South Wales the premier just announced "new restrictions" for the four local government area where clusters have developed, meaning that if you live or work in those areas you must remain at home unless you cannot work or study at home; for exercise; and to buy food/medicine or seek medical attention. One of those areas is the CBD lol where lots of people work. The next week is going to be interesting.
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Jun 25, 2021 02:39
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freebooter posted:In New South Wales the premier just announced "new restrictions" for the four local government area where clusters have developed, meaning that if you live or work in those areas you must remain at home unless you cannot work or study at home; for exercise; and to buy food/medicine or seek medical attention. Unlike all of the other measures introduced over the past couple of weeks, this one doesn't come into effect until midnight - plenty of time for people to escape Sydney for their preferred iso destination. I am furious that we didn't lock down sooner and close our own borders to slow down the spread of Delta to other states. Health said a short, sharp lockdown wouldn't work because it had spread to the community but the reason it spread is because we didn't lock down as soon as it was detected.
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Jun 25, 2021 02:49
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Picnic Princess posted:Tell that to all the governments around the world who have been using it as a metric. To be clear, hospitalisations is absolutely and important metric of performance in a pandemic. Because of the lag behind cases, it's the rate of growth of cases that you follow for changing NPI and managing and evaluating outbreaks, like this surge from delta in the UK.
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Jun 25, 2021 04:43
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quote:Overall, a strong vaccine effect did not clearly manifest until at least 28 days after the first vaccine dose (HR 0·32, 95% CI 0·22–0·46; appendix p 3). Among S gene-negative cases, the effect of vaccination (at least 28 days after first or second dose) was to reduce the risk of hospital admission (HR 0·28, 95% CI 0·18–0·43) compared to unvaccinated. The corresponding hazard ratio for risk of hospital admission for S gene-positive cases was 0·38 (95% CI 0·24–0·58), with an interaction test p value of 0·19, suggesting that there was no evidence of a differential vaccine effect on hospital admissions among those first testing positive (appendix p 4). Platystemon posted:https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext That's not what the study is saying and not what PHE is claiming. The actual numbers they had admitted were so small they were unable to make statistically significant claims using the methodology they have to use to adjust for factors like age etc but the data they do have backs reduced severity amongst hospitalised double vaccinated patients. It's why they list the p value for that hazard ratio but not the others. Read the supplemental appendices and summary it's all laid out there. Saros fucked around with this message at 07:28 on Jun 25, 2021 |
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Jun 25, 2021 07:24
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freebooter posted:In New South Wales the premier just announced "new restrictions" for the four local government area where clusters have developed, meaning that if you live or work in those areas you must remain at home unless you cannot work or study at home; for exercise; and to buy food/medicine or seek medical attention. We deserve to be a laughingstock. https://twitter.com/BradHazzard/status/1408296205302575106
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Jun 25, 2021 07:38
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Sjs00 posted:Geez could we get some non doomers in here The impending population decline resulting from covid being stored in the balls will probably save us from climate change
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Jun 25, 2021 09:04
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Blitter posted:To be clear, hospitalisations is absolutely and important metric of performance in a pandemic. ok but the vaccine rollout has clearly changed the relationship between cases and hospitalisations as others have pointed out with all their graphs and stuff.
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Jun 25, 2021 09:15
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People clinging on to the 2 weeks to a month lag in the data and hospitalisations myth is pretty weird when you put the graphs next to each other. In other countries there may be huge delays in statistics but the reason scientists around the world are using U.K. data, is that hospital data is only delayed by a week and the daily death average is accurate.
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Jun 25, 2021 09:24
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learnincurve posted:People clinging on to the 2 weeks to a month lag in the data and hospitalisations myth is pretty weird when you put the graphs next to each other. We're not talking about a reporting lag (although that does happen). Hospitalizations happen after people catch the virus and deaths happen after they go to hospital, they don't all increase simultaneously. A rise in cases now means a rise in hospitalizations a month from now, which in turn means a rise in deaths a few weeks after that. We've already seen a significant rise in cases in the UK and the deaths are also starting to show an increase. If there's a noticable rise in cases that means increased hospitalizations and deaths are also on the way, so the smart thing to do is to introduce restrictions and other NPIs when cases start increasing instead of waiting for the inevitable rise in deaths.
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Jun 25, 2021 10:22
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freebooter posted:In New South Wales the premier just announced "new restrictions" for the four local government area where clusters have developed, meaning that if you live or work in those areas you must remain at home unless you cannot work or study at home; for exercise; and to buy food/medicine or seek medical attention. If people are wondering what local government areas (LGAs) might be and whether they're a good way of carving up a city to enact restrictions, Sydneysiders are wondering as well. Some suburbs have LGA borders running right down the middle of them so the situation is pretty ridiculous: https://twitter.com/smhussey/status/1408258299351367680
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Jun 25, 2021 10:24
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When do people think tests are done? This isn’t Australian data. People in the U.K. ill enough to need hospital have the test when they are already showing symptoms which is why there isn’t a huge lag when you compare the tests and hospitalisation charts.
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Jun 25, 2021 10:28
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:We're not talking about a reporting lag (although that does happen). Hospitalizations happen after people catch the virus and deaths happen after they go to hospital, they don't all increase simultaneously. A rise in cases now means a rise in hospitalizations a month from now, which in turn means a rise in deaths a few weeks after that. We've already seen a significant rise in cases in the UK and the deaths are also starting to show an increase. Do you disagree with statements like those made in numerous articles like these? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/09/link-between-covid-cases-and-deaths-has-been-broken-says-senior-nhs-boss "NHS Providers chief executive, Chris Hopson" posted:it is a much younger population that is coming in, they are less clinically vulnerable, they are less in need of critical care and therefore they’re seeing what they believe is significantly lower mortality rate which is, you know, borne out by the figures.
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Jun 25, 2021 10:32
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NotJustANumber99 posted:Do you disagree with statements like those made in numerous articles like these? No of course not. The upcoming UK wave probably won't be as bad as the previous ones, but it's still coming. learnincurve posted:When do people think tests are done? This isn’t Australian data. Only a small percentage of cases end up in hospital. If there's only a handful of cases then there's going to be hardly any hospitalizations. If there's lots and lots and lots of cases then you're going to see an increase in hospitalizations, so the rise in hospital numbers happens AFTER the rise in cases. The rise in cases is an indicator that a rise in hospitalizations will also occur if the outbreak isn't contained. Snowglobe of Doom fucked around with this message at 10:40 on Jun 25, 2021 |
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Jun 25, 2021 10:34
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Oh Lord, this is it this is the peak - what the government is doing is identifying areas where there is a surge and blanket vaccinating everyone over 18 with pop up vaccination centres on a Saturday. 2 weeks later and the area’s cases drop - that’s the data Bardeh posted. This weekend they are magnifying the program and there will be hundreds of them - the pop up testing centres will be taking most of the load.
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Jun 25, 2021 10:39
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learnincurve posted:blanket vaccinating everyone over 18 with pop up vaccination centres on a Saturday. Oh, everyone you say? 100% of the population over 18? And the virus is polite enough to check people's birth certificates and not infect anyone under 18? Well that's a relief!!!
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Jun 25, 2021 10:42
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Under 18s are far less likely to end up in hospital which is the game plan here. Whity has been making noises about how initial data from the delta variant is showing only under 18s with pre-existing conditions are winding up in hospital - There is an exception for kids identified as vulnerable over the age of 16, but none of the vaccines have been given clearance for younger kids here yet.
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Jun 25, 2021 10:47
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For any one patient who might go to the hospital and die the timeline is something like day 0 get infected, day 5-14 show symptoms and get tested, day 28-42 go to the hospital, day 49-63 die. So when looking at an infection wave that is only 5 days into spiking, it is too early to say from the data whether a hospital spike has followed the infection spike since one wouldn’t be expected to show up until 9 days later. Now, iirc there has been data to suggest double vaccinated individuals are less likely to have a severe course and go to the hospital, if infected. And as a public health goal, less severe illness is good. I have a problem with the idea that in the face of an infection surge we can avoid lockdowns and mask restrictions because fully vaccinated folks will get a less severe course of the disease. Especially when children are not yet vaccinated. More infections = more chance for variants and there are still very bad outcomes that are not death (long covid).
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Jun 25, 2021 12:23
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why you guys gotta punch each other while I'm asleep?Dren posted:For any one patient who might go to the hospital and die the timeline is something like day 0 get infected, day 5-14 show symptoms and get tested, day 28-42 go to the hospital, day 49-63 die. So when looking at an infection wave that is only 5 days into spiking, it is too early to say from the data whether a hospital spike has followed the infection spike since one wouldn’t be expected to show up until 9 days later. I think you also have to look at the fact that delta seems to be making this timeline a lot faster.
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Jun 25, 2021 13:51
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Fluffy Bunnies posted:I think you also have to look at the fact that delta seems to be making this timeline a lot faster. Source for that? If delta is going to happen I would very much like it to happen as fast as possible so US schools have time to reverse course on a full in person return in the fall. We all know they won't reverse course without the spike in cases staring them in the face.
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Jun 25, 2021 14:04
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Dren posted:For any one patient who might go to the hospital and die the timeline is something like day 0 get infected, day 5-14 show symptoms and get tested, day 28-42 go to the hospital, day 49-63 die. So when looking at an infection wave that is only 5 days into spiking, it is too early to say from the data whether a hospital spike has followed the infection spike since one wouldn’t be expected to show up until 9 days later. what are you talking about five days? it's been going up since like mid april
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Jun 25, 2021 14:23
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Dren posted:Source for that? If delta is going to happen I would very much like it to happen as fast as possible so US schools have time to reverse course on a full in person return in the fall. We all know they won't reverse course without the spike in cases staring them in the face. They won't reverse the course anyhow. Everything is open, we aren't going back. I'll try to hunt down one of the sources I was reading last night.
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Jun 25, 2021 14:25
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I know eveyone's having a great time arguing ITT but I was wondering if anyone has information on pre-symptomatic / asymptomatic cases and how long it takes for them to show up on tests reliably? I know someone who has to do some travel to the states and they're trying to figure out how to keep their housemates safe on return.
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Jun 25, 2021 14:45
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Another Bill posted:I know eveyone's having a great time arguing ITT but I was wondering if anyone has information on pre-symptomatic / asymptomatic cases and how long it takes for them to show up on tests reliably? get the nose poke test 2-5 days apart on return and accept that they might infect no matter how careful they are.
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Jun 25, 2021 15:11
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Fluffy Bunnies posted:get the nose poke test 2-5 days apart on return and accept that they might infect no matter how careful they are. Yeah this is roughly the advice I gave too. I know you take this poo poo seriously, so it reassures me that we're on the same page. Thanks!
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Jun 25, 2021 15:23
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covid is over you idiots
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Jun 25, 2021 16:09
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smoobles posted:covid is over you idiots There are places it's effectively over, the United States ain't one of them.
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Jun 25, 2021 16:12
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Another Bill posted:There are places it's effectively over, the United States ain't one of them. Walk around anywhere (outside of an ICU ward) in my state and you wouldn't know the difference. Edit: I drove through the local Freddy's here a few days ago and found myself surprised that the employees were wearing masks. Basically nobody, not even at the big chain places, is wearing masks now.
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Jun 25, 2021 16:14
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WhiteHowler posted:Walk around anywhere (outside of an ICU ward) in my state and you wouldn't know the difference. And I'm going to guess your state is north of the Mason-Dixon?
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Jun 25, 2021 16:15
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Another Bill posted:And I'm going to guess your state is north of the Mason-Dixon? hahahaha no we're as Southern as Southern gets.
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Jun 25, 2021 16:16
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WhiteHowler posted:hahahaha no we're as Southern as Southern gets. Well good luck with that!
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Jun 25, 2021 16:16
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Another Bill posted:There are places it's effectively over, the United States ain't one of them. I walked around today and didn't see any viruses
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Jun 25, 2021 16:27
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Another Bill posted:Well good luck with that! I'm fully vaccinated, everyone here has had the chance for months. At this point I don't feel like their safety is my responsibility. I'm not going out of my way to be around people, and I'm taking the precautions I feel are appropriate to protect myself when I do go out. But I've stopped stressing about potentially spreading an asymptomatic case. Y'all (and I use that term in its purest sense) had your chance to be safe and chose not to.
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Jun 25, 2021 16:27
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WhiteHowler posted:I'm fully vaccinated, everyone here has had the chance for months. At this point I don't feel like their safety is my responsibility. I'm not a doomer I just live with unvaccinated kids. My wife and I are fully vaxxed now and if it wasn't for the kids COVID would be over for me too. I figure they'll be getting jabbed by end of September, so not much longer.
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Jun 25, 2021 16:31
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Another Bill posted:There are places it's effectively over, the United States ain't one of them. The city of Seattle has a population of 724k and our 7 day rolling average is 17.6 cases per day as of 6/21. 2.5 cases per 100k population is about as over as COVID might ever be. I'm still wearing a mask at the grocery store, but I'm not scared or nervous even a little bit unless/until something dramatically changes.
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Jun 25, 2021 16:38
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Yeah, it's mainly our daughter who can't be vaccinated that throws a wrench into our plans. She's only 4, so we don't have any idea when a vaccine would be available, so we limit what we do, though we aren't still completely locked down. But we don't take needless risks like eating in restaurants. Not sure what else we can do at this point, even if we wear masks inside stores, lots of other people won't.
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Jun 25, 2021 16:40
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Another Bill posted:I'm not a doomer I just live with unvaccinated kids. My wife and I are fully vaxxed now and if it wasn't for the kids COVID would be over for me too. I figure they'll be getting jabbed by end of September, so not much longer. Ha, I didn't mean you, I mean the 67% of people in my state who haven't/won't get vaccinated. Yeah, having kids is a rough spot. I'm happily child-free, but I have a lot of friends who are stressing because their kids aren't old enough to get vaxxed yet, yet the state is pushing hard for all in-person school this fall. (Also, the school year starts really early down here, like in early to mid August.)
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Jun 25, 2021 16:43
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I'm glad some of you feel safe, and have done what you can to protect yourselves. Just remember many children haven't been/aren't able to get vaxxed, and some of them never will because their parents don't think this pandemic is a real threat. There's also a % of the population that just can't get the vax for other reasons. If you're fine with contributing to the quite rare, but still possible chance of passing it on to them, go about your life in bliss. Personally I care about other people (even the selfish people that only care about themselves), and know that not everyone educates themselves with facts/data. Many people are shaped by a non-supportive upbringing/environment, and can't change that. I want to be able to look back a few years from now and be proud of the decisions I made, good or bad.
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Jun 25, 2021 16:43
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