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Do you prefer the extended summer thread format? This poll is closed. |
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| Yes |
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126 | 44.21% |
| No |
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39 | 13.68% |
| I'm Scottish |
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120 | 42.11% |
| Total: | 285 votes | ||
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Reveilled posted:I recall reading a book many years ago called “Turned Out Nice” which presented a vision of what post-climate change Britain would look like that largely comported with that Bitesize thing. Mediterranean climate, longer growing seasons, animals and plants will flourish. That's the thing about climate change - it doesn't matter if the particular square foot of land you're standing on isn't terribly affected, because there are billions of people who will be, and they have nukes. It's like preppers storing up a mountain of cans for the apocalypse - you think Lord Humongous is going to let you keep any of it?
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Jul 1, 2021 14:26
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Gort posted:That's the thing about climate change - it doesn't matter if the particular square foot of land you're standing on isn't terribly affected, because there are billions of people who will be, and they have nukes. I mean, to be fair, we also have nukes. There are easier places to invade that wont get Beijing or New Delhi glassed, if it comes down to that.
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Jul 1, 2021 14:30
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feedmegin posted:I mean, to be fair, we also have nukes. There are easier places to invade that wont get Beijing or New Delhi glassed, if it comes down to that. This is the UK. All you have to offer is a few grand and a board place to a Tory and you can own half of London.
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Jul 1, 2021 14:35
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learnincurve posted:Sheffield, Birmingham and Manchester high five.  No frills, handy for the hills, that's the way you spell New Mills.
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Jul 1, 2021 14:37
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Guavanaut posted:About that last one... My fiancees parents live in Skelmersdale, but are originally from the Caribbean so they might be happy going back to a tropical island lifestyle.
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Jul 1, 2021 14:40
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Guavanaut posted:About that last one... The floods will surely sweep away the union bridge though, and the divide will deepen until New Mills proper will have to raid Newtown under cover of darkness for supplies of Swizzles confectionary.
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Jul 1, 2021 14:43
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It's time for big John McD.
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Jul 1, 2021 14:45
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Guavanaut posted:About that last one... Looking forward to the Scouser invasion of Manchester
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Jul 1, 2021 14:48
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If anyone wants to play around with a post-apocalypse UK map, there's a good one here. https://coastal.climatecentral.org/...model=kopp_2014
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Jul 1, 2021 14:55
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'Post'-climate change Britain? What, it's going to stop at some point? Will it just get bored and go away?
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Jul 1, 2021 14:56
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Unkempt posted:'Post'-climate change Britain? What, it's going to stop at some point? Will it just get bored and go away? At some point there’ll be nobody left to burn fossil fuels
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Jul 1, 2021 14:57
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Unkempt posted:'Post'-climate change Britain? What, it's going to stop at some point? Will it just get bored and go away? More likely to have post-Britain climate change tbh
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Jul 1, 2021 15:00
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Guavanaut posted:About that last one... What's that, a 40m rise? Coz at that point even Sheffield is basically a seaside town. Southside of Glasgow is submerged along with Stirling, Paisley, Renfrew, half of Aberdeen & Dundee, 3/4s of Perth, & basically every settlement in the Highlands outside of the villages on the route of the A9 from Inverness to Perth. The Great Glen would just be the sea, cutting the western Highlands off from the rest of the UK. (Also sadly these projections don't account for flood defences outside the US. Coz it's saying this house will be under the sea by 2030 & nah, the flood defences here would mean a high tide increase of 1.5m in 9 years, don't see it. Fortunately that's not in our lifetimes. forkboy84 fucked around with this message at 15:04 on Jul 1, 2021 |
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Jul 1, 2021 15:01
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Hobo posted:The GOV.UK Covid stats website now has an interactive map of vaccination rates, where you can zoom down to a ward level, in case you want to obsess over that: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations Yeah it's this, I posted about it a while back by Tower Hamlets has a median age of 30 (and even that is skewed because birth rates are fairly low - people just move here in their 20s) so didn't even start vaccinating almost half their population until a couple of weeks ago - most of inner London is in a similar state, hence the mass events at football stadiums the last couple of weeks.
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Jul 1, 2021 15:11
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keep punching joe posted:This is surely Corbyn's biggest failing as Leader, that the PLP left aren't able to scrape up 40 votes for a challenge. They should have purged every loving one of the melts after the second anti-Corbyn leadership challenge. The PLP is in much better shape than it was before Corbyn. Membership probably is & all.
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Jul 1, 2021 15:11
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Cases/deaths curve update: (let me know if that makes any sense if you have different color perception and I'll make a better one) If you look closely you can see the point where Johnson hosed it during the winter. Obviously cases are highly dependent on how much testing you're doing, 'gently caress all' in the first wave there, and more than double the tests in this third wave to the roughly equivalent point in October, but still at the point where we should be seeing more than double the number deaths that we are. Which is positive news by current standards  forkboy84 posted:What's that, a 40m rise? Those maps also provide an average sea level, and I don't know what would happen to the Mersey in a 5m sea rise scenario but it has one of the largest tidal variations in the UK at present, so there's room for a wide range of "yeah Manchester's fine except for when the Irwell backfloods half the city" sea level rises in the interim.
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Jul 1, 2021 15:14
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Losing the Gulf Stream is like letting go of a hosepipe that has been turned on full blast; it's spraying like hell but there will be zero predictability as to where the water goes and for how long. If it goes it will take a long time for it to settle into a new stable state with absolutely no guarantee of any benefit to humanity... good luck farming in that event. 'It will be Biblical' seems like a decent definition of the outcome.
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Jul 1, 2021 15:15
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Gort posted:That's the thing about climate change - it doesn't matter if the particular square foot of land you're standing on isn't terribly affected, because there are billions of people who will be, and they have nukes. Of the nations most likely to be hosed over by climate change, only India and Pakistan have nukes and no real way of delivering them beyond the Himalayas. Besides nukes are pretty useless in a climate war because sprinkling strontium-90 over the newly-viable agricultural land of Siberia and northern Canada is kinda counterproductive.
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Jul 1, 2021 15:17
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Just Another Lurker posted:'It will be Biblical' seems like a decent definition of the outcome. e: ^^^  
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Jul 1, 2021 15:18
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keep punching joe posted:If anyone wants to play around with a post-apocalypse UK map, there's a good one here.   I'm sceptical, but it's fair to say people are likely to start taking this poo poo seriously if entire cities all across Northern Europe are underwater. Shame it's probably too late by then. e: wait their criteria for red is "below water level", so their 2020 projection for the Netherlands would already be looking pretty bad 
Borrovan fucked around with this message at 15:24 on Jul 1, 2021 |
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Jul 1, 2021 15:21
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Even a 5m sea level rise by the end of the century is streching the bounds of plausibility- that's an utter worse case "half of the land ice in Antarctica drops into the sea" scenario. 40m rise is just a doom fantasy and slamming the bar as high as possible for lolz.
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Jul 1, 2021 15:22
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Borrovan posted:This is their projection for 2030: Yea, it's a stupid map by an American company who did a model using ok data for the US then decided they'd use poo poo quality data and simulate the entire world, ignoring all flood defences and local land features. However, it's online and has a pretty UI so it gets shared around alot.
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Jul 1, 2021 15:24
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Fens are back baby, boat's are cool again glugluglg *Buried Moon sounds* And Ely gets to be an island again, which is nice for them.
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Jul 1, 2021 15:27
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Nothingtoseehere posted:40m rise is just a doom fantasy and slamming the bar as high as possible for lolz e: not that people would listen to the realistic values either, it just pisses me off seeing smug boomers go on about how none of the older predictions happened* *iirc technically the global temperature ones were also wrong, because they were far exceeded Borrovan fucked around with this message at 15:33 on Jul 1, 2021 |
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Jul 1, 2021 15:29
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Serious note though, turning the Fens back into wetlands would sequester a lot of carbon over a long term. You could do more than a thousand high tech carbon capture projects just by reversing the drainage. That might annoy some landowners though, and allow the Bargees back.
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Jul 1, 2021 15:31
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Guavanaut posted:Serious note though, turning the Fens back into wetlands would sequester a lot of carbon over a long term. You could do more than a thousand high tech carbon capture projects just by reversing the drainage. That might annoy some landowners though, and allow the Bargees back. Time for the true future: The Coracle Future.
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Jul 1, 2021 15:35
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Guavanaut posted:That might annoy some landowners though Sequester their carbon too
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Jul 1, 2021 15:37
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Just Another Lurker posted:Losing the Gulf Stream is like letting go of a hosepipe that has been turned on full blast; it's spraying like hell but there will be zero predictability as to where the water goes and for how long. The Gulf Stream is the only thing keeping the UK from getting 10 foot snow winters like New York gets. Its going to be biblical as most housing is not designed for extremes of ridiculously bad winters, and dropping dead heat summers.
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Jul 1, 2021 15:38
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keep punching joe posted:https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1410580765637763074 This is the SCG, not the PLP. This is just saying that there aren't 40 votes for a challenge from left candidate, which we already knew. Someone on the soft left, like Angela Reyner or Dawn Butler, may be able to pull it off.
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Jul 1, 2021 15:38
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xtothez posted:Sequester their carbon too
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Jul 1, 2021 15:42
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Nothingtoseehere posted:Yea, it's a stupid map by an American company who did a model using ok data for the US then decided they'd use poo poo quality data and simulate the entire world, ignoring all flood defences and local land features. However, it's online and has a pretty UI so it gets shared around alot. Good, I can stop having a heart attack now. Is there a more realistic / well researched alternative please?
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Jul 1, 2021 15:44
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Borrovan posted:This is their projection for 2030: I'm really not sure how they're plotting this because they've got Elephant and Castle - 5 metres above the London Bridge datum (average high tide actually measured at the PLA building at Tower Pier rather than London Bridge) underwater but Shad Thames, literally below the high tide mark, as being fine. Similarly they've got Poplar Gut - the lowest-laying part of the Isle of Dogs, and where the Thames Path floods if the wind is coming from the right direction - as high and dry, but Mudchute and Chapel House, both a good solid 6 metres above the rest of the Island, as flooded. I *think* they've a) chosen to ignore all existing flood defences, b) used an extremely naive flood-risk algorithm, and c) used an extremely incomplete elevation map. a) and c) are sort of understandable as very hard to model for this sort of site but b) is really unforgiveable because they're (presumably deliberately) conflating century-level floods and general sea-level rise, and that's not how things work even with a tidal river like the Thames, especially not when flood defences are already built around those century-level events. It would actually be a lot more honest to just have a "if sea levels rise <x>, <y> will now be underwater".
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Jul 1, 2021 15:46
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I know the WI and inclusivity was mentioned in the thread a few days ago. This just popped up on twitter: https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/petra-wenham-makes-history-first-transgender-woman-wi-magazine-cover-1079374 Good on 'em.
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Jul 1, 2021 15:50
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Gyro Zeppeli posted:Time for the true future: The Coracle Future.  Sloth Life posted:Good, I can stop having a heart attack now. Is there a more realistic / well researched alternative please?
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Jul 1, 2021 15:54
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Sloth Life posted:Good, I can stop having a heart attack now. Is there a more realistic / well researched alternative please? Here's a good article about sea level rise from carbon brief, that goes into where it comes from, the current estimates (50cm by 2100 if we get our poo poo together, 80cm if we don't), and some of the studies suggesting higher worse case scenarios than that (more around the 1.5m-2m) mark. As to what those numbers mean for the UK, I don't know any good sources off the top of my head. As above posts show, it's a complicated thing that depends alot on what the government does. (If the thames barrier hadn't been build, London probably would be flooding regularly. But we did build it, so it doesn't). But it's still not good, but maybe your fears can be a little more grounded in reality now. Edit: sea level rise is a very long term consequence of climate change, because it takes a long time to change something on the scale of the oceans. Greater flooding, heatwaves, and mean temperature changes are the biggest problem, and those mostly really pick up at the 2-3 warming level globally. This is why the UK is alot better off than some places - Pakistan and India are facing the consequences now, and in 30 years a large chunk of east Africa won't be able to grow potatos without irrigation systems they can't afford. Nothingtoseehere fucked around with this message at 16:03 on Jul 1, 2021 |
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Jul 1, 2021 15:57
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Guavanaut posted:About that last one... On the one hand my commute will involve a bathysphere, but <BBC bitesize voice> on the other hand my pendlebury beach hut will have an ocean view.
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Jul 1, 2021 16:00
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This is what you're actually going to notice over the next few decades, well before Stockport-on-sea. It doesn't go on a shocking map on a newspaper front page as well though.
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Jul 1, 2021 16:04
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Having seen that graph I think I might go grab a beer or two.
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Jul 1, 2021 16:09
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Here's a nice article on how we can offset carbon emissions and fight flooding and extreme weather at the same time, just so it's not all doomposting. Rewilding wetlands is good and cool and people should push for more of that regardless of what climate change is doing.
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Jul 1, 2021 16:22
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Thanks all! There is a National Trust climate map I saw but I assume it's as imaginary as the other map already quoted.
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Jul 1, 2021 16:23
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