Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

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Uranium 235: Oct 12, 2004

SKULL.GIF posted:

This is exactly what Kristjan Kullamagi does and it, apparently, works for him despite having like a 33% win rate.

yep he finds momentum stocks that have enough liquidity for his position size and are consolidating in a tight pattern, then he sets alerts for breakouts of levels he's identified. he puts in a tight stop, but if they follow through on the breakout, he takes partial profit after a few days, and then trails a stop at the 10 day moving average. sounds very simple but selecting the right stocks and right setups is the tricky part

his winners are so much larger than his losing trades that he can still stop out of most of his trades and still make very high returns

# ? Jul 10, 2021 04:20

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 19:41

Uranium 235: Oct 12, 2004

Leperflesh posted:

I found some info about calculating sharpe for day traders on Quora:

I think it's important to recognize that Sharpe is really checking your volatility compared to a baseline of volatility, but that does not translate to "higher risk" necessarily because volatility can obviously be assymetric, and ideally you're intentionally seeking opportunities with more upside than downside volatility, e.g, a stock more likely to wildly swing up than wildly swing down.That's what that comment about skewness is referring to. Kurtosis is the amount of "tails" to the curve, and I'm not sure why it's also important here, I don't really understand that factor.

thanks. so this answer is saying that for day traders, just use zero for risk-free returns?

Baddog posted:

Looks like the 12 month sharpe of SPY currently is 2.6, thats a pretty high target to beat.

maybe we'll get that correction that people have been waiting for and our sharpe ratios will look much better in comparison

# ? Jul 10, 2021 04:23

Warmachine: Jan 30, 2012

Leperflesh posted:

I found some info about calculating sharpe for day traders on Quora:

I think it's important to recognize that Sharpe is really checking your volatility compared to a baseline of volatility, but that does not translate to "higher risk" necessarily because volatility can obviously be assymetric, and ideally you're intentionally seeking opportunities with more upside than downside volatility, e.g, a stock more likely to wildly swing up than wildly swing down.That's what that comment about skewness is referring to. Kurtosis is the amount of "tails" to the curve, and I'm not sure why it's also important here, I don't really understand that factor.

Skewness is direction, kurtosis is magnitude. A high kurtosis means you likely have outliers 3+ standard deviations from the mean. If you have a right skewed distribution with high kurtosis, you likely have relatively few big jumps upward, and lots of little steps downward. All assuming the underlying distribution is normal.

edit: Rewrote to be a bit more accurate.

Warmachine fucked around with this message at 05:13 on Jul 10, 2021

# ? Jul 10, 2021 04:56

jeeves: May 27, 2001; Deranged Psychopathic
Butler Extraordinaire

I just hope $goon recovers a bit so I can finally rid myself of it

# ? Jul 10, 2021 08:03

jawbroken: Aug 13, 2007; messmate king

Leperflesh posted:

When it comes to TA trading, analyzing charts and lines and deciding that the stock is likely to move up (or down) doesn't rely on institutions failing to identify the same trend, it just relies on that trend lasting long enough (with enough shares available in the market) for you to make some money off it.

It does rely on that, because if anyone else identified this �trend� before you and took full advantage of it then it would instantly evaporate. Again, my point is that various institutions have more price/market data, lower latencies, more compute power, more software engineers, and more PhDs than you do, so why would you think it's easier to make money by just looking at chart lines and simplistic indicators. I'm not saying you can't make money doing it (you can make money doing almost anything in the stock market because it has positive expected return), I'm just strongly disagreeing with the original statement:

Uranium 235 posted:

and btw if you're a retail trader, you better hope that TA works because otherwise you're 100% hosed and never going to make money in the markets beyond blind luck. how can you compete with institutions who have practically unlimited resources and access to information before you do, have massive staffs of professional finance nerds, etc?

I'm not saying that technical analysis doesn't �work� or you can't make money doing it, I just think that quote is the exact opposite of reality. I find identifying mispricing over long time horizons and timing entry points to be comparatively easy and wildly profitable. This heretical disbelief in the efficient-market hypothesis and related theories is why I'm in this thread and not the long-term investing thread, despite solely entering positions where I expect to hold them for 5+ years.

# ? Jul 10, 2021 15:03

pmchem: Jan 22, 2010

I need someone to check my math on this. Paging Leperflesh since he started this line of discussion.

Here's my fun money returns YTD by month (in %, Jan 1 -> Jul 1, thus 6 months):

code:

14.07899113
1.017158904
0.9528487693
22.07587481
21.61676755
9.971014675

Total return 89.94%

Here's the same for VOO (edit: by price) (S&P 500):

code:

-0.4028751956
3.177836627
3.28585531
5.286728564
0.7625272331
1.492921493

Going by price, VOO's return in that window was 14.28%. Going by total return (more appropriate), its return was about 15.29%.

Libreoffice claims those two series have a covariance of -1.54674242 and that the variance of the VOO series is 4.195463867. This gives a beta of: -0.3686701802 ( https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/beta.asp )

Simplifying life slightly, let's assume the risk-free rate is zero, since the 1-month T-Bill yield has been below 0.1% all year. A stock or portfolio's alpha is the return minus beta times the market return ( https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/08/deeper-look-at-alpha.asp ).

This gives my fun money an alpha of 95.6 YTD. Does that look right? The biggest problem I see is that the covariance and variance calcs would be more reliable if done on a weekly or daily time series instead of monthly, but I simply don't have that on hand for my fun money; it'd be a ton of effort to extract. Regardless the beta would probably still be negative.

pmchem fucked around with this message at 20:35 on Jul 10, 2021

# ? Jul 10, 2021 20:29

Uranium 235: Oct 12, 2004

jawbroken posted:

It does rely on that, because if anyone else identified this �trend� before you and took full advantage of it then it would instantly evaporate.

so are you saying that trends don�t exist in the market? are� we talking about the same market? do you know what a trend is? sorry man but this comment from you is baffling

# ? Jul 10, 2021 20:55

The Big Jesus: Oct 29, 2007; #essereFerrari

Uranium 235 posted:

so are you saying that trends don’t exist in the market? are… we talking about the same market? do you know what a trend is? sorry man but this comment from you is baffling

Of course trends exist, stocks only go up

# ? Jul 10, 2021 21:07

Warmachine: Jan 30, 2012

pmchem posted:

I need someone to check my math on this. Paging Leperflesh since he started this line of discussion.

Here's my fun money returns YTD by month (in %, Jan 1 -> Jul 1, thus 6 months):
code:
14.07899113
1.017158904
0.9528487693
22.07587481
21.61676755
9.971014675
Total return 89.94%

Here's the same for VOO (edit: by price) (S&P 500):
code:
-0.4028751956
3.177836627
3.28585531
5.286728564
0.7625272331
1.492921493
Going by price, VOO's return in that window was 14.28%. Going by total return (more appropriate), its return was about 15.29%.

Libreoffice claims those two series have a covariance of -1.54674242 and that the variance of the VOO series is 4.195463867. This gives a beta of: -0.3686701802 ( https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/beta.asp )

Simplifying life slightly, let's assume the risk-free rate is zero, since the 1-month T-Bill yield has been below 0.1% all year. A stock or portfolio's alpha is the return minus beta times the market return ( https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/08/deeper-look-at-alpha.asp ).

This gives my fun money an alpha of 95.6 YTD. Does that look right? The biggest problem I see is that the covariance and variance calcs would be more reliable if done on a weekly or daily time series instead of monthly, but I simply don't have that on hand for my fun money; it'd be a ton of effort to extract. Regardless the beta would probably still be negative.

Your total return is wrong based on the sample. Should be 69.71. Since your variance and covariance is calculated from the n=6 sets, using "total return" which clearly includes data points outside those sets is incorrect.

You should also use the sample variance and covariance, since we don't know the underlying distribution of the population (your 6mo returns are a sample of lifetime returns, and 6mo VOO returns are a sample of all-time returns). Covariance should thus be -1.87. We'll use two significant figures in reporting for brevity sake, but I'll be doing the calculations to greater precision in the back end. From this we get a beta of -0.44.

R(i) = 69.71
R(m) = 13.60
R(f) = 0.06 - 0.05 = 0.01 (small, but not enough to assume zero)
� = -0.44

Taking this together gives α = 75.72

With respect to methodology, you should also consider whether VOO is an appropriate proxy for the overall market. VOO tracks the S&P500, and if your investments aren't included in the S&P, then you're comparing apples and oranges--even if we commonly refer to the S&P as 'the market,' it's only a tiny fraction of available investments. As such, VOO is really a sample of a sample of the market, and precision falls accordingly.

# ? Jul 10, 2021 21:21

pmchem: Jan 22, 2010

Warmachine posted:

Your total return is wrong based on the sample. Should be 69.71. Since your variance and covariance is calculated from the n=6 sets, using "total return" which clearly includes data points outside those sets is incorrect.

hmm, looks like I presented the data differently than you're assuming? 69.71 would just be a sum of the monthly percent returns, but I calculated them re-basing at the start of each month; that is to say, they are multiplicative. in that sense, it corresponds with the actual percent change in balance for that month as opposed to the change in end-month balance vs. a January 1 reference date. I'm quite certain total return for Jan. 1 -> July 1 is correct; but those 7 month-start dates gives you 6 intervals, and it's the percent return for each interval that I listed. If you treat them as multiplicative it gives you my total return for the 6 months. That appeared to be standard practice by how I saw things discussed in various articles?

re: sample variance, googledocs does appear to use sample variance in its calculations.

re: reference, all my trading was on things in the total (edit: US) stock market, so I guess you could use VTI instead if we wanted. it'd be manifestly similar. the entire point of the original discussion by Leper was fun money vs. broad indexes (S&P in particular) so I think it's an appropriate reference in the context of this discussion.

pmchem fucked around with this message at 22:15 on Jul 10, 2021

# ? Jul 10, 2021 22:11

cirus: Apr 5, 2011

AI based TA is available to retail traders with certain platforms. I previously plugged Stockrover but recently switched to Trade Ideas which is way better for day and swing trading. I have scanners set to alert on high volume, high relative volume, breaking through various MA, on a pullback from day/week/month high, and with various candlestick patterns. It does a great job of alerting me to momentum. I then set an alert for bearish candlestick patterns on highs so I can sell once I confirm the chart. The AI automatically calculates stops based on resistance levels.

Trendspider is another much cheaper platform that can apply almost any trend automatically. The scanners were limited to one index at a time so I didn't much care for getting separate alerts from every index.

# ? Jul 10, 2021 22:44

Syrinxx: Mar 28, 2002; Death is whimsical today

jeeves posted:

I just hope $goon recovers a bit so I can finally rid myself of it

what heresy is this

# ? Jul 10, 2021 22:49

Warmachine: Jan 30, 2012

pmchem posted:

hmm, looks like I presented the data differently than you're assuming? 69.71 would just be a sum of the monthly percent returns, but I calculated them re-basing at the start of each month; that is to say, they are multiplicative. in that sense, it corresponds with the actual percent change in balance for that month as opposed to the change in end-month balance vs. a January 1 reference date. I'm quite certain total return for Jan. 1 -> July 1 is correct; but those 7 month-start dates gives you 6 intervals, and it's the percent return for each interval that I listed. If you treat them as multiplicative it gives you my total return for the 6 months. That appeared to be standard practice by how I saw things discussed in various articles?

re: sample variance, googledocs does appear to use sample variance in its calculations.

re: reference, all my trading was on things in the total (edit: US) stock market, so I guess you could use VTI instead if we wanted. it'd be manifestly similar. the entire point of the original discussion by Leper was fun money vs. broad indexes (S&P in particular) so I think it's an appropriate reference in the context of this discussion.

I mean, we did both come to the same conclusion: your picks beat what you could have gotten investing all of that money into VOO.

Looking harder into it, the question of "what numbers are correct?" is complicated by the fact that stocks can gap. Intuitively, you should be able to sum the percent gains per month in the period to get the total, but since the stock can gap, a stock does not open at the same price it closed at. Meaning the percent change measured from Open on Jan 1 2021 to Close Jun 30 2021 will be different than if you measured the percent change of each month's open and close price then summed it.

I'm not sure what implications this has for variance and covariance, and how applicable they are to the return functions.

# ? Jul 10, 2021 22:54

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

Strong Sauce posted:

if you use their desktop app "fidelity active trader pro" i think it goes and shows you your sell dates

That's a cool program and didn't include sell dates... or it does but it's being really wordy about it. Anyway, I went ahead and dumped out the stocks I've traded for this year in 2021.

That's just a glorious 7% return. I guess that's not terrible for a side hobby? :shrug:

# ? Jul 11, 2021 00:47

Cacafuego: Jul 22, 2007

Did you sell your AAPL?

# ? Jul 11, 2021 01:21

Tokyo Sex Whale: Oct 9, 2012; "My butt smells like vanilla ice cream"

Calculating risk adjusted returns on a few months of trading, and on a portfolio of less than several dozen securities at least, is a misapplication of statistics imo. It's like doing actuarial work on the lineup of the 2007 Kansas City Royals or something.

# ? Jul 11, 2021 01:32

pmchem: Jan 22, 2010

Tokyo Sex Whale posted:

Calculating risk adjusted returns on a few months of trading, and on a portfolio of less than several dozen securities at least, is a misapplication of statistics imo. It's like doing actuarial work on the lineup of the 2007 Kansas City Royals or something.

I was mainly going through the process in order to follow up on Leperflesh's posts about it (since he started the whole thing), and I did note the shortcoming in my math where I only had monthly samples. But I mean, we're halfway through the year; a lot of people take "stock" of how they're doing (or how funds are doing) at least semiannually. I thought it would be a good exercise to add these metrics to my own internal tracking and wanted a sanity check on how I was doing it (thanks for that, warmachine, for real).

I totally disagree that the number of securities must be high or else the portfolio return analysis is a "misapplication". People with their entire portfolio in BRK/B (yes those people exist) drat well better be looking at BRK's sharpe or alpha. Similarly, Bill Ackman's hedge fund is famously concentrated, with only 7 positions on his last 13-F: https://whalewisdom.com/filer/pershing-square-capital-management-l-p#tabholdings_tab_link -- but you better believe anyone putting money into his fund will want to know its risk-adjusted returns and alpha.

# ? Jul 11, 2021 02:08

Strong Sauce: Jul 2, 2003; You know I am not really your father.

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

That's a cool program and didn't include sell dates... or it does but it's being really wordy about it. Anyway, I went ahead and dumped out the stocks I've traded for this year in 2021.

That's just a glorious 7% return. I guess that's not terrible for a side hobby?

yeah its a bit hidden, if you go to closed positions you'll see it.

# ? Jul 11, 2021 04:36

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

Cacafuego posted:

Did you sell your AAPL?

No,

At most I'm just experimenting - or basically a combination of investing and gambling. It's just my take about market from what I've read in the news books, this forum, etc. If anything I'll probably hold onto these for a few years at best until a rainy day comes along and I have a use for the extra cash.

# ? Jul 11, 2021 04:37

jeeves: May 27, 2001; Deranged Psychopathic
Butler Extraordinaire

Syrinxx posted:

what heresy is this

I shoulda stopped listening to gewns and went with my gut and bought more Costco when it was like 280 earlier in the year.

Costco rocks.

# ? Jul 11, 2021 06:39

Zypher: Sep 3, 2009; Rutgers

Your 2006
Mythical National
Champions!

A handful of us talk about $ASTS regularly in the discord but it hasn't made its way to this thread yet. With $AHT falling out of favor and $NDRA perpetually stuck at $2.10, I figured y'all might be interested in a new lemming stock for $GOON, something that's a little bit closer to a moonshot: AST Spacemobile.

ASTS is basically about using satellites to bring cellular data in rural, hard to reach places all around the globe. It's not a direct competitor to the darling SpaceX's Starlink but it's in a similar space (Starlink requires a dish at home like DirectTV; ASTS works with existing mobile devices). And they're not completely pie in the sky; they already have relationships with some big players including Vodaphone, Rakuten, AT&T, and American Tower.

Some corporate videos explaining what AST Spacemobile does
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PNMOUOroTc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erDOlUoEmnc

Some reading on the bull cases for ASTS
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417916-ast-spacemobile-20-100x-return-100-percent-loss-a-binary-bet
https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2021/04/ast-spacemobile-could-change-the-world-why-asts-stock-could-reach-500/

The bear case, of course, is that the technology is a failure/fraud and when the BW3 satellite launch happens later this year/early next year it all falls to poo poo and the stock goes to $0 (which I think is covered in the Seeking Alpha article).

The post-merger de-spacing of ASTS was harsh, and the stock languished in the $7.xxs for a while with zero institutional coverage. However, DB recently initiated with a $35 PT and the stock spiked to $14 before settling back down to $11-12.

There are also a couple big whales from a non-SA SPAC discord that own millions in ASTS stock that routinely try to pump $ASTS in WSB. Several times now they've gotten some traction and it's spiked back up near $14.

DB is still the only coverage ASTS has. If another bank comes in with a similar PT, ASTS will certainly gap up again. And, until then, I find trading the WSB spikes much more lucrative than the NDRA cycle (and I have higher conviction in its potential longterm prospects).

# ? Jul 11, 2021 13:05

G-Mawwwwwww: Jan 31, 2003; My LPth are Hot Garbage; Biscuit Hider

Zypher posted:

A handful of us talk about $ASTS regularly in the discord but it hasn't made its way to this thread yet. With $AHT falling out of favor and $NDRA perpetually stuck at $2.10, I figured y'all might be interested in a new lemming stock for $GOON, something that's a little bit closer to a moonshot: AST Spacemobile.

ASTS is basically about using satellites to bring cellular data in rural, hard to reach places all around the globe. It's not a direct competitor to the darling SpaceX's Starlink but it's in a similar space (Starlink requires a dish at home like DirectTV; ASTS works with existing mobile devices). And they're not completely pie in the sky; they already have relationships with some big players including Vodaphone, Rakuten, AT&T, and American Tower.

Some corporate videos explaining what AST Spacemobile does
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PNMOUOroTc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erDOlUoEmnc

Some reading on the bull cases for ASTS
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417916-ast-spacemobile-20-100x-return-100-percent-loss-a-binary-bet
https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2021/04/ast-spacemobile-could-change-the-world-why-asts-stock-could-reach-500/

The bear case, of course, is that the technology is a failure/fraud and when the BW3 satellite launch happens later this year/early next year it all falls to poo poo and the stock goes to $0 (which I think is covered in the Seeking Alpha article).

The post-merger de-spacing of ASTS was harsh, and the stock languished in the $7.xxs for a while with zero institutional coverage. However, DB recently initiated with a $35 PT and the stock spiked to $14 before settling back down to $11-12.

There are also a couple big whales from a non-SA SPAC discord that own millions in ASTS stock that routinely try to pump $ASTS in WSB. Several times now they've gotten some traction and it's spiked back up near $14.

DB is still the only coverage ASTS has. If another bank comes in with a similar PT, ASTS will certainly gap up again. And, until then, I find trading the WSB spikes much more lucrative than the NDRA cycle (and I have higher conviction in its potential longterm prospects).

I'm in ASTS with 5000 shares and 1000 warrants.

If ASTS works (and it should, given who's on board, people who are way more knowledgeable than I am), it will give 5g access to pretty much everyone in the world, which is huge.

ASTS is piggybacking off existing carriers like Bell Canada and Rakuten to provide services-- and it's cheap.

Deutschbank analysis linked here https://www.kookreport.com/post/spac-investing-ast-science-asts-deutsche-bank-initiation

The interesting thing about the $35 price target is that to get it, DB created four equally likely scenarios for 2022- one with a price of $85, one with a price of $45, one with a price of $8 and one with a price of $0. They specifically tossed out the one where it was $190.00 (but it still exists) because it was an outlier.

quote:

With the greatest downside scenario at -$10 per share and the most optimistic upside scenario at +$76 per share (vs the current price), we see the risk/reward as asymmetrically positive (see figure 3). Furthermore, 2024 is a measurement year that is still early in this project's lifecycle. If we take AST management's 2030 EBITDA forecast of more than $16B and apply a 1 Ox multiple (which we think is still conservative given the business' expected growth profile), this implies a 2030 enterprise value of $163B (vs <$2B today). Discounting that EV back to the present time at a 15% discount rate yields a share price of roughly $190 today. We are not including this scenario in our valuation, nor are we endorsing it, but we do think that it is important to illustrate the potential upside for ASTS longer term if the technology works and management executes the business plan it has laid out.

BW3 should go up late Q4 2021/Q1 2022.

G-Mawwwwwww fucked around with this message at 17:38 on Jul 11, 2021

# ? Jul 11, 2021 16:18

jawbroken: Aug 13, 2007; messmate king

Uranium 235 posted:

so are you saying that trends don�t exist in the market? are� we talking about the same market? do you know what a trend is? sorry man but this comment from you is baffling

I'm not sure where you think I said or implied that . We're obviously, in context, discussing the predictability of such trends over short-horizon periods, and whether they are the only opportunity for �retail traders� to make outsized risk-adjusted returns and �compete with institutions�.

# ? Jul 11, 2021 16:35

Joiny: Aug 9, 2005; Would you like to peruse my wares?

I'm in asts and super in the money on it since I doubled down on it when it went to 7. I expect it to trade sideways with occasional spikes due to coverage until bw3. I have 1000 shares that I'm holding forever and another 1000 I've been playing around with on covered calls or selling during spikes and buying back in after the spikes died down. I'm planning on buying some long calls on it but I think they're overpriced at the moment.

# ? Jul 11, 2021 16:40

Tokyo Sex Whale: Oct 9, 2012; "My butt smells like vanilla ice cream"

Thanks for posting the link to the DB paper on ASTS, I was hunting for it this morning and couldn�t find it.

I feel like the future revenue estimates are presuming many naked dirt farmers have foregone buying an iPhone only because their mud hut is too far away from the nearest cell tower but idk. Why is it uneconomical to build ground infrastructure in uncovered areas?

# ? Jul 11, 2021 16:54

G-Mawwwwwww: Jan 31, 2003; My LPth are Hot Garbage; Biscuit Hider

Tokyo Sex Whale posted:

Thanks for posting the link to the DB paper on ASTS, I was hunting for it this morning and couldn�t find it.

Why is it uneconomical to build ground infrastructure in uncovered areas?

Because the world is really, really, really big. The vast majority of the world doesn't have 5g coverage. Hell, a lot of America doesn't have it either.

You've got to get permits, crews, materials to service areas that may not have a ton of people in them. And there's a lot of areas that don't have a ton of people in them, so it's going to end up being uneconomical to put up a tower for that area.

# ? Jul 11, 2021 17:14

canyoneer: Sep 13, 2005; I only have canyoneyes for you

Tokyo Sex Whale posted:

Thanks for posting the link to the DB paper on ASTS, I was hunting for it this morning and couldn’t find it.

I feel like the future revenue estimates are presuming many naked dirt farmers have foregone buying an iPhone only because their mud hut is too far away from the nearest cell tower but idk. Why is it uneconomical to build ground infrastructure in uncovered areas?

As a dude who is newly telecommuting boy howdy would I love to do my job from say, a house on 50 forested acres in Montana instead of the boring suburb I live in now near the office

# ? Jul 11, 2021 17:19

Hadlock: Nov 9, 2004

canyoneer posted:

As a dude who is newly telecommuting boy howdy would I love to do my job from say, a house on 50 forested acres in Montana instead of the boring suburb I live in now near the office

We're actively working on a plan like this, but more like 10 acres, 50 is too much to maintain and work full time IMO

# ? Jul 11, 2021 17:33

Cacafuego: Jul 22, 2007

Branson didn�t burn up in the atmosphere. Where does SPCE go from here?

# ? Jul 11, 2021 17:37

BigPaddy: Jun 30, 2008; That night we performed the rite and opened the gate.
Halfway through, I went to fix us both a coke float.
By the time I got back, he'd gone insane.
Plus, he'd left the gate open and there was evil everywhere.

If you can telecommute and it is a permanent thing then you are not alone in thinking why would I live somewhere expensive and crowded. My previous employer was very anti remote work and then covid hit and because they didn�t have the IT infrastructure in place took a productivity hit for a few weeks at first and are using that as an excuse to demand people come back to the office in Cambridge MA or find a new job. A decent amount of people decided to find a new job that lets them telecommute because that genie is firmly out of the bottle.

The real question is how long does it take for companies who do not embrace remote work to come to the realization that they also do not need large offices in a few cities. It really comes down to the ego of the C level who want their staff in one place to lord over them as well as having the name of the company on top of another generic glass office building by a large highway to give them a hard on when their driver takes them into the office every day.

Cacafuego posted:

Branson didn�t burn up in the atmosphere. Where does SPCE go from here?

Up I expect as it is showing that rich jackasses feel ok spending money on a 30 minute suborbital flight in another rich jackasses toy rocket plane.

# ? Jul 11, 2021 17:43

Zypher: Sep 3, 2009; Rutgers

Your 2006
Mythical National
Champions!

GrandmaParty posted:

I'm in ASTS with 5000 shares and 1000 warrants.

I�m currently in for 4000 shares myself. Playing with the houses� money; I had 10k shares it was in the 7s. But I�ll definitely be looking for places to buy back (annoyed I didn�t pull the trigger near Thursday�s dip to 11.6, for instance)

# ? Jul 11, 2021 18:09

Tokyo Sex Whale: Oct 9, 2012; "My butt smells like vanilla ice cream"

GrandmaParty posted:

Because the world is really, really, really big. The vast majority of the world doesn't have 5g coverage. Hell, a lot of America doesn't have it either.

You've got to get permits, crews, materials to service areas that may not have a ton of people in them. And there's a lot of areas that don't have a ton of people in them, so it's going to end up being uneconomical to put up a tower for that area.

https://www.airwaveadvisors.com/blog/how-much-does-a-cell-tower-cost/

I am guessing that it would be considerably cheaper than that to build a tower in the phase 1 regions vs. San Diego or whatever.

Phase 1 costs $500 million and will cover equatorial regions, they expect to charge $2/month (ASTS keeps half) on average for that region. When you go top down (1.6 billion people in the coverage region! 550 million without broadband cell service!) it looks really good, I'm just iffy on how many of those 550 million are really potential customers, because it really doesn't cost that much to build a tower. I mean if you figure $100,000 to build a tower, a village in Cambodia with 20,000 people and 1 cell phone for every 5 people at $2/month a tower would pay for itself in a year. That's not a high bar to clear. So my guess is there's no tower there because there aren't any cell phones because people are too poor. If it's just that all of these people are too rural then that's another thing and looks good for ASTS.

I'm probably going to throw some money at this just trying to think it through.

# ? Jul 11, 2021 18:49

G-Mawwwwwww: Jan 31, 2003; My LPth are Hot Garbage; Biscuit Hider

Tokyo Sex Whale posted:

https://www.airwaveadvisors.com/blog/how-much-does-a-cell-tower-cost/

I am guessing that it would be considerably cheaper than that to build a tower in the phase 1 regions vs. San Diego or whatever.

Phase 1 costs $500 million and will cover equatorial regions, they expect to charge $2/month (ASTS keeps half) on average for that region. When you go top down (1.6 billion people in the coverage region! 550 million without broadband cell service!) it looks really good, I'm just iffy on how many of those 550 million are really potential customers, because it really doesn't cost that much to build a tower. I mean if you figure $100,000 to build a tower, a village in Cambodia with 20,000 people and 1 cell phone for every 5 people at $2/month a tower would pay for itself in a year. That's not a high bar to clear. So my guess is there's no tower there because there aren't any cell phones because people are too poor. If it's just that all of these people are too rural then that's another thing and looks good for ASTS.

I'm probably going to throw some money at this just trying to think it through.

They got lots and lots and lots and lots and lots and lots of work to do otherwise.

# ? Jul 11, 2021 18:54

Zypher: Sep 3, 2009; Rutgers

Your 2006
Mythical National
Champions!

India is the largest prize I see on that map, and ASTS' partnership with Vodafone is specific to getting coverage to India

# ? Jul 11, 2021 18:58

pmchem: Jan 22, 2010

Vodafone and others appear to already have tons of towers in India. I�m guessing the 5G demand just isn�t there yet. They can easily add in 5G towers:

https://www.nperf.com/en/map/IN/-/6911.Vodafone/signal/?ll=22.350075806124867&lg=82.88085937500001&zoom=4

# ? Jul 11, 2021 19:11

G-Mawwwwwww: Jan 31, 2003; My LPth are Hot Garbage; Biscuit Hider

pmchem posted:

Vodafone and others appear to already have tons of towers in India. I�m guessing the 5G demand just isn�t there yet. They can easily add in 5G towers:

https://www.nperf.com/en/map/IN/-/6911.Vodafone/signal/?ll=22.350075806124867&lg=82.88085937500001&zoom=4

I'm just rolling with this. https://www.bbcmag.com/rural-broadband/5g-is-not-the-answer-for-rural-broadband

This, too. https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/heres-how-much-5g-wireless-network-really-costs/d/d-id/769114

# ? Jul 11, 2021 19:23

Doggles: Apr 22, 2007

GrandmaParty posted:

They got lots and lots and lots and lots and lots and lots of work to do otherwise.

Keep in mind, a lot of that 5G coverage in the US is possibly faked. In order to claim wide 5G coverage, multiple providers are running the 5G protocol on top of the 4G network essentially tricking users' phones into thinking they're connected to the 5G network. This results in slower speeds than natively connecting to the 4G network.

https://smartphones.gadgethacks.com/how-to/heres-difference-between-real-5g-fake-5g-0308792/

https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/22/18277484/att-fake-5g-e-network-lte-study

https://www.theverge.com/2020/12/22/22196060/verizon-5g-slower-than-lte-speed-test

# ? Jul 11, 2021 19:38

Zypher: Sep 3, 2009; Rutgers

Your 2006
Mythical National
Champions!

pmchem posted:

Vodafone and others appear to already have tons of towers in India. I�m guessing the 5G demand just isn�t there yet. They can easily add in 5G towers:

https://www.nperf.com/en/map/IN/-/6911.Vodafone/signal/?ll=22.350075806124867&lg=82.88085937500001&zoom=4

It's ~~more complicated than~~ not a lack of demand:

https://www.forbesindia.com/article/special/poorly-planned-india-not-ready-for-5g-deployment/66341/1

quote:

India is not prepared to roll out 5G due to multiple issues, the Shashi Tharoor-led Parliamentary Committee concluded in its report presented before Parliament on Monday. By the end of 2021 or early 2022, 5G will be rolled out for some specific use cases, but �4G should continue in India for at least another five to six years�, the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) informed the committee, drawing its ire.

Comparing it to the delayed deployment of 2G, 3G and 4G, the report said this delay �reflects very poorly on our planning and execution�. �India has to do a lot of catching up so far as 5G deployment is concerned,� industry body Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) informed the committee.

https://www.indiatoday.in/technology/features/story/5g-in-india-are-we-there-yet-1769386-2021-02-15

quote:

"From a consumer perspective in India, there is a high interest for 5G and more importantly, they are willing to pay for the new capabilities that 5G brings. According to Ericsson Mobility Report , India will have 350 million 5G subscriptions by 2026, accounting for 27 percent of all mobile subscriptions. Further, four out of every ten mobile subscriptions in 2026 will be 5G," Nitin Bansal, Head of Ericsson India and Head of Network Solutions Ericsson South East Asia, Oceania and India noted.

re: the tons of towers

quote:

"India presents a unique telecom landscape where a multi-generational transition is evolving. Telecom operators need to provide technology, especially from an app POV, that is compatible with 2G, transitioning to 4G, supporting remote rural applications, and so on. It needs to support a wide spectrum of hybrid technologies ultimately. India's 5G spend cycles will determine how quickly some of these things happen for the next generation architecture versus the current and prior architecture," Gaurav Agarwal, Senior Director of Enterprise and Government Sales from VMware India said.

Doggles posted:

Keep in mind, a lot of that 5G coverage in the US is possibly faked. In order to claim wide 5G coverage, multiple providers are running the 5G protocol on top of the 4G network essentially tricking users' phones into thinking they're connected to the 5G network. This results in slower speeds than natively connecting to the 4G network.

That sounds good for ASTS and their potential customers in the rural US

Zypher fucked around with this message at 20:00 on Jul 11, 2021

# ? Jul 11, 2021 19:51

Uranium 235: Oct 12, 2004

jawbroken posted:

I'm not sure where you think I said or implied that . We're obviously, in context, discussing the predictability of such trends over short-horizon periods, and whether they are the only opportunity for �retail traders� to make outsized risk-adjusted returns and �compete with institutions�.

how often do you trade on short timeframes? do you trade intraday?

i don�t recall ever saying that there is only opportunity for retail in short timeframes

Uranium 235 fucked around with this message at 20:36 on Jul 11, 2021

# ? Jul 11, 2021 20:23

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 19:41

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

Really interesting discussion about risk adjusted returns over the last page. I didn't know about any of that stuff.

Up to this point I'd just been looking at my Time adjusted return being much better than the S&P 500 and figuring I was a stock genius. Maybe not.

Some numbers from the last 1 year:
Return of my stock picking + gambling portfolio: 64%
S&P500 return: 40%
No-risk asset: Canadian T bill: 0.93%?? basically assuming this number is wrong. Is this the best "no risk" asset to use? Wasn't sure if I was finding the actual return of this asset in the last year...

I calculated the weighted beta of all my stocks (that have beta) came out to 1.81. So given that some recent IPO equities such as DASH and COIN don't seem to have beta I guess all my calculations will be off. But ok.

Anyway from the Jensen alpha formula the result is. -7.58% sooooo I guess I suck actually.

Or I guess what this really means is that given how risky my portfolio is, the returns aren't that great.

I dunno what the takeaway is really.

I mean I'd rather have a 64% than a 40% return, but I guess the core thing is whether a beta of 1.81 matches your risk profile?

Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 21:03 on Jul 11, 2021

# ? Jul 11, 2021 20:54

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Ask/Tell > Business, Finance, and Careers > Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

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