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Pistol_Pete posted:The leaders of the current regime see that all is lost and flee the country, along with their key supporters. Their less important supporters get left behind as the Taliban roll in. Isn't the international airport the most fortified location in the country? I'd assume they'll just stuff their tax-haven passcodes somewhere and board a plane in the middle of the night bound for anywhere that will give permanent residence for cash.
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Jul 9, 2021 07:44
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great, more lovely neighbors driving up apartment prices
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Jul 9, 2021 10:14
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MiddleOne posted:Isn't the international airport the most fortified location in the country? I'd assume they'll just stuff their tax-haven passcodes somewhere and board a plane in the middle of the night bound for anywhere that will give permanent residence for cash. Yeah, it'll be like the Americans loving off from Baghram airbase without telling their Afghan allies, except it'll be the Afghan president and prime minister heading for Dubai with suitcases full of loot and a cheery "we'll be back soon, scout's honor!" to their subordinates.
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Jul 9, 2021 11:39
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We can add them to our growing list of 'government-in-exile' losers. Siphon some bank accounts and aid funds.
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Jul 9, 2021 12:19
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If/when the Taliban captures Kabul it will be interesting to see how recognized it is internationally. A government in exile, however pro forma, could be considered legitimate by most of the world for quite a long time.
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Jul 9, 2021 13:25
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I mean most of the current government would consider that a step up from their current situation.
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Jul 9, 2021 14:35
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Sinteres posted:Can't help wondering what the road not taken would have looked like. *curb your enthusiasm theme starts playing*
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Jul 9, 2021 16:45
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Biden: we did not go to Afghanistan to nation build Mask slips off in a spectacular way. Ah and the capital of the northern Alliance and pro CIA haven MAZAR-E-SHARIF, Afghanistan (AP) — A powerful warlord in northern Afghanistan and a key U.S. ally in the 2001 defeat of the Taliban blames a fractious Afghan government and an “irresponsible” American departure for the insurgents’ recent rapid territorial gains across the north. Ata Mohammad Noor, who is among those behind the latest attempt to halt the Taliban advances by creating more militias, told The Associated Press that the Afghan military is badly demoralized. He said Washington’s quick exit left the Afghan military logistically unprepared for the Taliban onslaught WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 18:13 on Jul 9, 2021 |
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Jul 9, 2021 18:10
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I have a feeling the pro American warlords and militia leaders feel 20 more years would still be too fast of a pullout. I certainly sympathize with people that joined with US forces to drive out the Taliban originally in the hopes that a better solution would solidify, but are they offering a real solution besides “please stay”?
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Jul 9, 2021 18:18
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Biden: we did not go to Afghanistan to nation build i don't know if there's really any mask to have slip, in 2001 we were pretty vocal about it being a war of vengeance, or at best a war for domestic security. i don't remember anyone discussing liberating the people of afghanistan in the same way the concept of liberation got brought up in 2003 during the runup to the invasion of iraq. i don't remember the focus on human rights becoming a thing until later when obl had been in hiding for years and the public was starting to wonder why we were still occupying the country
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Jul 9, 2021 18:19
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i don't know if there's really any mask to have slip, in 2001 we were pretty vocal about it being a war of vengeance, or at best a war for domestic security. i don't remember anyone discussing liberating the people of afghanistan in the same way the concept of liberation got brought up in 2003 during the runup to the invasion of iraq. i don't remember the focus on human rights becoming a thing until later when obl had been in hiding for years and the public was starting to wonder why we were still occupying the country The focus on women's rights in particular was a big focus very early. Yeah the war itself was obviously about vengeance, but humanitarian messages were pushed alongside that pretty much from the start.
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Jul 9, 2021 18:24
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Also the US dropped from a high of 110,000 troops in 2011 to 2,500 at the start of 2021. The US has been closing bases this whole time, including at least 10 base closures in 2020. This is the end of a drawdown that’s been a decade in the making - it’s not a gigantic shock to everyone.
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Jul 9, 2021 18:26
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I'm really surprised things are collapsing so fast. Are we barely even bombing the Taliban anymore, or what? While eastern Syria is obviously an easier situation to manage in terms of terrain, we managed to bomb our proxy forces to victory against ISIS there, so it seems kind of crazy that we can't even manage to help the Afghan army stave off total collapse. It's pretty loving sad if 20 years of nation building, which we were actively attempting to do regardless of what Biden says, couldn't even cobble together a more capable fighting force than the SDF, especially since there wouldn't be the same geopolitical reasons to make sure we didn't give them heavy weapons.
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Jul 9, 2021 18:31
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Sinteres posted:I'm really surprised things are collapsing so fast. Are we barely even bombing the Taliban anymore, or what? While eastern Syria is obviously an easier situation to manage in terms of terrain, we managed to bomb our proxy forces to victory against ISIS there, so it seems kind of crazy that we can't even manage to help the Afghan army stave off total collapse. It's pretty loving sad if 20 years of nation building, which we were actively attempting to do regardless of what Biden says, couldn't even cobble together a more capable fighting force than the SDF, especially since there wouldn't be the same geopolitical reasons to make sure we didn't give them heavy weapons. Here's a thought: the people who are right now coming to the right age to serve in the Afghan army were born about the time of the invasion or after it. In theory they would be the best motivated to defend the republic in which they grew up? But the problems of the republic and the unending violence are rather obvious and anyone with the resources probably prefers to play it safe and leave the country. Meanwhile people who grew up in the 90's or before that have been coping with conflict, corruption and disasters for decades now, and in their position I would find it hard to really feel optimistic about anything after so much poo poo. Imagine having witnessed the Soviet occupation, then the government collapse and Taliban rule, then US invasion and occupation, all that time toiling daily to provide bread and medicine for your family and avoiding getting murdered by whoever currently might want to blow up your sorry rear end. I would be a thousand times more cynical if my entire life experience was like that, and I would probably deliver the same cynicism to my offspring. YPG is perhaps different in that the Kurdish struggle for recognition and independence has been continuing for a while and it's easier to sell their specific nationalism to Kurdish volunteers than it is to convince all Pashtun, Tajik, Hazara and Uzbek conscripts that the idea of an Afghan republic is worth dying for. There's just things that money alone cannot achieve.
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Jul 9, 2021 19:53
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Ah and the capital of the northern Alliance and pro CIA haven  https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-middle-east-ab1a73500ff11f6d650f562a462f5bfe Some real strong energies going on in that article.
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Jul 10, 2021 05:23
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All these articles are boiling my blood. The same people that are liek DUHH WE'RE DEFENDING THE AFGHANISTAN CONSITUTION AND PROTECTING FREEDOM by bombing weddings, are now like "Yeah that country is a shithole we should leave them to their own fate"
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Jul 10, 2021 05:57
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I advise some grace for anyone making statements regarding Afghanistan right now. It's been a tough situation and a lot of smart and well meaning people are trying to reconcile the years they said, "this is horse poo poo why are we there?" with the actual outcome of why you can't ever leave once you start. I remember being raised that the US panned on Vietnam and my schools explained that basically America hated it and convinced an obstinate government to leave. I found that narrative very difficult to reconcile once someone enlightened me regarding the executions and displacements that followed. This isnt going to be an easy thing to process, even if you're simultaneously as rational and empathic as you could possibly be.
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Jul 10, 2021 06:28
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Kandahar is under siege. District 7 has potentially fallen.
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Jul 10, 2021 07:04
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Yeah, the Taliban raided Sarpoza prison on the outskirts of the city yesterday, and apparently it just kind of snowballed. They walked into some areas of Kandahar without a fight. No one expected that, but then no one expected the early mass surrenders and the collapse of the north either. In hindsight. I'm not sure why , since we are talking about a government that spent two decades unable to regularly pay or supply its own soldiers because every goddamn thing got embezzled. Imagine what the US could have done with the 2+ trillion dollars that got pissed away on this. China just built a high speed rail network for less than 1 trillion. Ghetto Prince fucked around with this message at 07:46 on Jul 10, 2021 |
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Jul 10, 2021 07:38
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Yeah, like I said before, demoralisation snowballs and nobody wants to be the last guy fighting when everyone else has hosed off already. When unpaid, undertrained Afghan troops see their comrades all over dying, fleeing, or simply getting paid off by the Taliban to go away, how motivated are they themselves going to be to fight when the Taliban roll into their own district?
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Jul 10, 2021 08:00
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The only correctly done occupation is the one that never happens. Just like the violent collapse of Iraq in the aftermath of 2011 and rise of ISIS were the direct consequence of Obama withdrawing, the forces unleashed themselves (empowered sectarian militias, sectarian government policies, dismantled state institutions) were also facilitated by the very same occupation. They were all tools of it, inseparable. All that said, you'd have to be a complete loony to look at a country like Vietnam today and say that it was the wrong decision by the US to leave. There are things that overwhelming military force just can't nor will ever solve (like 70 years of colonial rule). This is all going to be horrible and there is very little we're going to be able to do about it since we only bring more warlords, kleptocracy and civilian deaths to the table.
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Jul 10, 2021 08:30
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MiddleOne posted:All that said, you'd have to be a complete loony to look at a country like Vietnam today and say that it was the wrong decision by the US to leave. There are things that overwhelming military force just can't nor will ever solve (like 70 years of colonial rule). This is all going to be horrible and there is very little we're going to be able to do about it since we only bring more warlords, kleptocracy and civilian deaths to the table. It helps that the north Vietnamese were a lot better than the taliban.
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Jul 10, 2021 08:56
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I wont pretend that the Taliban are any good, but I will say that the warlords they're rolling aren't exactly much better. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bacha_bazi E: Hearts and Minds quote:In December 2010, a cable made public by WikiLeaks revealed that foreign contractors from DynCorp had spent money on bacha bazi in northern Afghanistan. Afghan Interior Minister Mohammad Hanif Atmar requested that the U.S. military assume control over DynCorp training centres in response, but the U.S. embassy claimed that this was not "legally possible under the DynCorp contract". "We didnt include a 'dont rape kids' clause in our mercenary contract, sorry folks!" Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 09:15 on Jul 10, 2021 |
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Jul 10, 2021 09:11
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Vasukhani posted:It helps that the north Vietnamese were a lot better than the taliban. The Taliban sucks, as does their competition. But we can't strong-arm forth a contender with airstrikes, guns and bribes, that was the last 20 years. Also the soviet invasion. Also the Iran invasion if that fever-dream had ever became a reality.
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Jul 10, 2021 10:06
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Taliban: In Maiwand and Zhari districts of Kandahar province, where the road was damaged due to war some time ago, the Reconstruction Commission of the Islamic Emirate has started repairing and rehabilitating the damaged road from Kandahar to Herat. Kandahar is potentially going through a change of ownership currently. https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/turkeys-kabul-airport-mission-comes-with-opportunities-and-risks WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 01:30 on Jul 11, 2021 |
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Jul 10, 2021 19:22
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lmao at trying to blame Biden for losing Afghanistan instead of the three presidents who didn't build anything that could last a minute beyond our withdrawal over the last 20 years. https://twitter.com/AlexThomp/status/1413245490003652608
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Jul 10, 2021 21:19
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Sinteres posted:lmao at trying to blame Biden for losing Afghanistan instead of the three presidents who didn't build anything that could last a minute beyond our withdrawal over the last 20 years. Yeah, and the idea that we probably should not have stuck around long after initially routing the Taliban isn't something I would hold against somebody. Especially given the benefit of hindsight. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 01:23 on Jul 11, 2021 |
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Jul 11, 2021 01:18
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THis is our exit from the world. Little by little our isolationist future grows brighter. Maybe thats a loving good thing at this point, but I wonder what will occur when we drop our OCONUS base count
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Jul 11, 2021 01:32
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:THis is our exit from the world. Little by little our isolationist future grows brighter. Maybe thats a loving good thing at this point, but I wonder what will occur when we drop our OCONUS base count I don't think dropping out of a forever war occupation equates to isolationism. The number of US overseas bases has been declining since the end of the Cold War - as has the number of US troops deployed overseas.
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Jul 11, 2021 01:46
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:THis is our exit from the world. Little by little our isolationist future grows brighter. Maybe thats a loving good thing at this point, but I wonder what will occur when we drop our OCONUS base count Yeah I am sure that the US leaving a war that basically the entire world agrees we should leave is our exit from the world.
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Jul 11, 2021 02:33
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Yeah ending the 20 year occupation of a country on the other side of the planet isn't isolationist. On the scale of interventionism where 0 is isolationist and 100 is imperialist, it's going from say 95 down to 90.
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Jul 11, 2021 02:50
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Ghetto Prince posted:A serious flaw with US training is that it relied on special forces, which meant stripping all the best leaders and troops out of the regular army. That was fine when the US propped everything up, but now that the US is gone it means the Afghan national defense and security forces are surrendering en masse while the commando's are increasingly exhausted and over worked. The Taliban are aware of this, so when the commando's do prepare an offensive they just leave. The commando's retake one or two districts, but in the meantime the Taliban have taken another dozen , and then released most of the surrendered Afghan national defense forces because it makes them look good and lets them keep moving quickly. I feel like this is perhaps also an overly generous take on Afghan 'special forces', seeing as they were in fact rabid, enthusiastically criminal death squads who served as the Taliban's biggest propaganda asset. Seriously, you can't understand the fate of the occupation without at least a passing familiarity with the Zero Units.
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Jul 11, 2021 03:21
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:THis is our exit from the world. Little by little our isolationist future grows brighter. The published reason for removing troops from the Middle East is “we want to do more in Europe and East Asia and the Pacific instead” It’s not isolationist, it’s an attempt to free up resources so the US can have more international presence and influence elsewhere, for better or worse. (It’s also cause we are tired of it all)
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Jul 11, 2021 10:00
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mlmp08 posted:The published reason for removing troops from the Middle East is “we want to do more in Europe and East Asia and the Pacific instead” Then why did we just decide to commit zero soldiers to Haiti on support of our friend the president's rotting corpse government
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Jul 11, 2021 17:51
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Then why did we just decide to commit zero soldiers to Haiti on support of our friend the president's rotting corpse government becauce the winner will also be friendly to US interests
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Jul 11, 2021 17:54
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if by some chance the forces in haiti that are hostile to us/canadian mining, agriculture, textile etc interests do take power in haiti, very unlikely, the us has a pretext and is definitely going to foment more disorder and send the troops in
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Jul 11, 2021 18:01
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Then why did we just decide to commit zero soldiers to Haiti on support of our friend the president's rotting corpse government Because, at this moment, there's no pressing reason to do so? Not sending in the Marines at the slightest pretext is NOT isolationism.
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Jul 11, 2021 18:29
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Then why did we just decide to commit zero soldiers to Haiti on support of our friend the president's rotting corpse government I dont think the US is as imperialist as people like to say it is, but not taking the first opportunity to invade the first destabilized country you see after a difficult breakup doesn't mean you've gone celibate.
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Jul 11, 2021 18:49
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i say swears online posted:becauce the winner will also be friendly to US interests This. Pretty much every potential leader is entirely fine with keeping up the US grift. Last I checked the biggest candidate to use proletariat rhetoric also happens to be a gang leader & mercenary who advanced american interests.
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Jul 11, 2021 18:56
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 looking very viable right now those white spots are right now either Kabul, or massive mountains with nobody in them
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Jul 12, 2021 01:33
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