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Femtosecond posted:(words) Beating the S&P in a bull year via high beta is nothing to be ashamed of, but, yeah it helps to be aware that's what's going on. There are ETFs with billions of dollars in AUM with that exact strategy. Here's one: https://www.invesco.com/us/financial-products/etfs/product-detail?audienceType=Institutional&ticker=SPHB
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Jul 11, 2021 21:31
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also before someone else beats me to it, I want to add that the beta of your portfolio is not equal to the weighted beta of its components. but I got your drift and it's probably a reasonable first approximation.
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Jul 11, 2021 21:39
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i think this is one of those situations where you really need a really long time series to truly judge whether or not you have a winning strategy. reading some of william bernstein's books, he discusses some funds that beat the s&p for many years from the early to mid 80's into the mid 90's, only to stumble so badly in the course of a year or two that it brought average annual returns for the fund below the market returns for the same period which i guess is just a long winded way for me to say that past performance is no guarantee of future results
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Jul 11, 2021 21:40
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:past performance is no guarantee of future results new thread title
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Jul 11, 2021 21:42
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So how much control does ASTS have over pricing? Sales are fully on the partner carriers. Revenues are split and they have projections for pricing in various regions but what's keeping, e.g., TMobile from offering space phone roaming as a loss leader and everybody else follows suit? They must have some discretion because pricing varies at the country level at least.GhostofJohnMuir posted:past performance is no guarantee of future results thank god
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Jul 11, 2021 21:58
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Not sure. Considering that the telecom operators are in charge of sales, marketing, billing, etc, I assume not much. That said, ASTS has hundreds of patents that will prevent (or at least delay) other satellite operators from offering what they do. And if they keep making their partnerships exclusive (like Rakuten in Japan), who knows how long it'll be before the other carrier would have a competitive product to challenge/offer space roaming as a loss leader
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Jul 12, 2021 00:09
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i think this is one of those situations where you really need a really long time series to truly judge whether or not you have a winning strategy. reading some of william bernstein's books, he discusses some funds that beat the s&p for many years from the early to mid 80's into the mid 90's, only to stumble so badly in the course of a year or two that it brought average annual returns for the fund below the market returns for the same period It's very reasonable to assume no single strategy will be effective all the time. What works in a recession may not work during a stagnant or growth period, and neither strategy might work in a hypervolitile environment. At the end of the day you should probably have several strategies and understand what conditions to use them in.
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Jul 12, 2021 06:00
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ASTS looks interesting from a product point of view but the realization doesn't look that easy. This in particular looks very challenging to achieve, not a lot of details in the patent but they hope to achieve this with electromagnetic coils. And then you have to add on top of this communications between all these guys. Looks fun to work on I guess, expect delays on the engineering for sure.  quote:The small satellites can be positioned approximately a few centimeters to approximately 20 meters apart from each other
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Jul 12, 2021 10:09
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LOL at SPCE doing a new stock offering to crush its price right after a successful flight.
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Jul 12, 2021 14:37
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:https://www.airwaveadvisors.com/blog/how-much-does-a-cell-tower-cost/
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Jul 12, 2021 14:55
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Why do SPY calls just print money?
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Jul 12, 2021 15:45
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Because stocks only go up?
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Jul 12, 2021 15:46
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DapperDraculaDeer posted:Because stocks only go up? Got it-thanks!
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Jul 12, 2021 15:47
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DapperDraculaDeer posted:Because stocks only go up? If the current thread title wasn't nearly perfect, I'd say this is title bait.
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Jul 12, 2021 15:49
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Warmachine posted:It's very reasonable to assume no single strategy will be effective all the time. What works in a recession may not work during a stagnant or growth period, and neither strategy might work in a hypervolitile environment. At the end of the day you should probably have several strategies and understand what conditions to use them in. Some examples: 1) 2017 crypto boom. Two setups that I learned that worked very well were oversold reversals (basically, buying dips after extreme selloffs and selling on the huge 10-20% bounces that would come pretty consistently), and breakouts. After ~March 2018, these setups stopped working as often, and even when they did, they didn't get as much follow through. There were a lot of fake breakouts, in particular. Volatility also began to drop off and I gradually drew my account down to zero. Paid off student loans, bought an apartment, and funded my first stock trading account 2) Canadian marijuana stock boom. The run-up to legalization in canada was a huge opportunity in 2018. but as soon as canada actually passed legalization, profit taking began and basically the same thing that happened to crypto happened in this sector. The setups stopped working as often, there were more fakeouts (for the setups I liked to trade), and my profitability dropped off 3) Covid crash. this was a huge opportunity, as volatility was sky high, there were strong intraday trends, and the big gaps up and down on SPY/QQQ were providing really good opportunities after the open. I switched to trading ES and NQ futures almost exclusively, with some CL futures sprinkled in (for a few weeks there were some really good trades right at the pit close at 2:30). Long and short opportunities everywhere. But again, after the first couple months, the market started to bounce, and the way I'd traded futures in february and march stopped working as well in April/May. I went into my worst slump of my short trading career during the summer of 2020 before becoming consistently profitable again in august. After each of these periods I have slumps where I'm either making a lot less money, or I'm drawing down. If I start drawing down, I wire money out of my account until i can get back to consistent profitability. It's a bit of a hit to the ego, but it's a lot better than giving everything back. I began to notice after the covid crash that toward the ends of these 'boom periods' in my trading, I'll start to have more volatility in my P/L, both intraday and day-to-day. I'll start to make more mistakes, get looser with risk management, etc. That needs to be something that I pay attention to more so I hopefully I can take steps to stop the slumps before they happen. Maybe I need to take a break from trading, or cut my account size/trading size down. Uranium 235 fucked around with this message at 15:59 on Jul 12, 2021 |
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Jul 12, 2021 15:55
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nwin posted:Why do SPY calls just print money? I don't wanna jinx myself but I am curious who are writing all the spy calls that have to almost always lose money for the writer. I guess they could be CC's but I can't imagine doing it myself.
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Jul 12, 2021 16:03
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cr0y posted:I don't wanna jinx myself but I am curious who are writing all the spy calls that have to almost always lose money for the writer. I guess they could be CC's but I can't imagine doing it myself. Market makers selling calls are generally constructing the trade such that they're delta neutral by buying the underlying stock. This is also part of why expiration days are weird, as the options roll off they also have to unload the other parts of the trade. This is also why heavy call buying can force the price of the underlying up through a gamma squeeze.
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Jul 12, 2021 16:11
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cr0y posted:I don't wanna jinx myself but I am curious who are writing all the spy calls that have to almost always lose money for the writer. I guess they could be CC's but I can't imagine doing it myself. There is probably some money in selling volume way OTM if you’re careful That being said I’m thinking a sell the news week with the big earnings coming out, but we will see and I have my stops set in case I’m wrong.
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Jul 12, 2021 16:14
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SKULL.GIF posted:Market makers selling calls are generally constructing the trade such that they're delta neutral by buying the underlying stock. This is also part of why expiration days are weird, as the options roll off they also have to unload the other parts of the trade. Ohh ok that makes sense, I was never able to wrap my head around how a gamma squeeze worked but that explains it well.
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Jul 12, 2021 16:18
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hydrocarbonenema posted:There is probably some money in selling volume way OTM if you’re careful My head is mulling over this kind of play on CLF with earnings next week. Calls now, ride the rumor up to next Wed maybe, then cash out and wait for earnings. After earnings, short/long at the next relevant trading signal. The risk is losing the difference between the pre-earnings take profit and the post earnings buy if the market reacts to the earnings call by going up.
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Jul 12, 2021 16:48
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ASTS just got a price target of $29 from Barclay's.
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Jul 12, 2021 16:55
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get hosed https://twitter.com/Guruleaks1/status/1414592645259792384?s=09
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Jul 12, 2021 17:54
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Lucira going to the stratosphere, congrats to anyone who got in on those cheap $10 calls with me after the Microsoft announcecment Holy guacamole
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Jul 12, 2021 18:25
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Holy guacamole Well timed!
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Jul 12, 2021 18:27
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Lmao, have been wondering when this would happen. That guy blatantly front runs his followers. Apparently he used to be at Raging Bull (who got slapped hard by the FTC a while back) before he started Warrior Trading
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Jul 12, 2021 19:30
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I watched a video of his where he was trading and he claimed to have scalped something like 40,000 shares and made 8,000 on a 20 cent price movement in about 5 seconds. How he traded something like 1/3 of all the volume on that bar without getting a cent of slippage he did not bother to explain.
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Jul 12, 2021 20:25
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I’ve seen people claim that they went through the time and sales on stocks he said he traded with a certain large number of shares, and couldn’t find his trades. No idea if it’s true Bottom line, anyone who runs a chat room that exclusively focuses on low float/small cap stocks and notifies their chat of their trades in real time should be regarded with suspicion. There are some traders who are members of his room explicitly for the purpose of shorting the backside of their pumps.
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Jul 12, 2021 21:26
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DIS finally got its poo poo together, which, as far as I can tell, is because Black Widow had a good weekend.Uranium 235 posted:There are some traders who are members of his room explicitly for the purpose of shorting the backside of their pumps. Look, if anyone wants to pump NUWE so I can get my $50 back, great Edit: OH I read that as this room
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Jul 12, 2021 21:33
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I placed a limit order on $GOON for $2.01, so, you're welcome for that somehow being the lava to avoid today.
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Jul 12, 2021 22:14
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Watching a penny stock I like go up and NOT selling because I'm holding out for a bigger payoff is really nerve wracking! Got back everything that AHT lost me at least, here's hoping for further developments.
D1Sergo fucked around with this message at 23:01 on Jul 12, 2021 |
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Jul 12, 2021 22:56
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almost time to reload goon$ to the moon, and by the moon I mean two fifty
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Jul 13, 2021 00:22
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My wife and I have been sitting on State Auto stock for years because she refused to sell it - her dad worked there, she inherited the stock, and the amount was fairly low so I didn't push back too hard even though seeing the drat thing constantly down 50% since it hit our account irritated me. Today it was announced they're merging with Liberty Mutual and the stock went up 191%.
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Jul 13, 2021 03:20
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and you’ll always know your father in law beat you at investing from the grave /joking
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Jul 13, 2021 03:25
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pmchem posted:and you’ll always know your father in law beat you at investing from the grave He'd have sold it years ago  .But yeah, he was better at investing than me, and I'm ok with it. What he and my MiL left my wife has turbo-charged our retirement savings.
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Jul 13, 2021 03:40
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Ornamented Death posted:My wife and I have been sitting on State Auto stock for years because she refused to sell it - her dad worked there, she inherited the stock, and the amount was fairly low so I didn't push back too hard even though seeing the drat thing constantly down 50% since it hit our account irritated me.
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Jul 13, 2021 03:48
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Since this is the unofficial oat milk thread, I've been putting oat milk in my coffee for weeks and it's been incredible, but I just now put sugar free oat milk on Cheerios and it kicked up my post-gym snacking 1000%
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Jul 13, 2021 07:01
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A HORNY SWEARENGEN posted:Since this is the unofficial oat milk thread, I've been putting oat milk in my coffee for weeks and it's been incredible, but I just now put sugar free oat milk on Cheerios and it kicked up my post-gym snacking 1000%
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Jul 13, 2021 07:25
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Milk is for babies, oat milk is for bosses.
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Jul 13, 2021 08:33
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Martman posted:Oat milk with pressed oat circles, an essential part of a complete oat breakfast These loops of ancient grain have me seeing demons in the corner of my eye, and my house seems larger inside than it is on the outside
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Jul 13, 2021 12:08
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Did you eat your Cheerios in Benadryl this morning? You appear to be suffering demonic themed delusions.
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Jul 13, 2021 12:11
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