|
Uranium 235 posted:well i guess she's going to have to sell it now. liberty mutual isn't publicly traded. not exactly sure how that all works but you'll need to look into it I think those deals all have to buy the shares from the shareholders for the new, inflated price. Hold another few months if you think the deal gets approved
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 12:21
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 8, 2024 04:08 |
|
|
LibCrusher posted:I think those deals all have to buy the shares from the shareholders for the new, inflated price. Hold another few months if you think the deal gets approved There's typically a buy out price that is set in the deal and the price typically goes pretty drat close to it. I remember I had Panera when they went private. It was several months out and within pennies of the buy out price so I took my money and ran. State Auto has a 200% premium with a buyout of $52.00 so you can wait until the buyout date to get that amount or you can exit now for whatever the current offer is. If it goes above (and they sometimes do) you should immediately bail pocking that sucker's money unless you think someone is about to make a counter offer. I can't find a date other than sometime in 2022. Up to you if it's worth the 6 month + wait. pixaal fucked around with this message at 13:24 on Jul 13, 2021 |
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 13:22
|
|
|
I’m trying to follow the pump and dump Twitter and Stocktwits accounts involved in CRTD and ANY to see if I can guess the next one. I’m saying NTEC. If it doesn’t do anything by next week Monday need to switch up my method. This is NOT a recommendation to buy NTEC but I will buy a few shares to punish myself.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 13:30
|
|
|
pixaal posted:There's typically a buy out price that is set in the deal and the price typically goes pretty drat close to it. I remember I had Panera when they went private. It was several months out and within pennies of the buy out price so I took my money and ran. Possibly a dumb question - my employer was acquired by a mega Corp, and the offer was $47.50/share. It’s trading around $45.79 and has stayed almost right around the $46ish range since the acquisition was announced 3 months ago. The deal is supposed to complete later this year. Why isn’t it trading closer to the acquisition price if it’s already known? And why shouldn’t I put a bunch of money into it, knowing I’ll get at least $47.50/share if it’s trading below that now? I guess it’s always possible that the deal unwinds? I’d that the potential risk?
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 13:48
|
|
|
Number go down? 😥
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 13:59
|
|
|
Cacafuego posted:Possibly a dumb question - my employer was acquired by a mega Corp, and the offer was $47.50/share. It’s trading around $45.79 and has stayed almost right around the $46ish range since the acquisition was announced 3 months ago. The deal is supposed to complete later this year. Why isn’t it trading closer to the acquisition price if it’s already known? And why shouldn’t I put a bunch of money into it, knowing I’ll get at least $47.50/share if it’s trading below that now? I guess it’s always possible that the deal unwinds? I’d that the potential risk? Deal falls through is the main reason for the price difference. You can see exactly what the market thinks the failure rate is. Right around the same 4-5% rate as the State Farm risk is currently sitting. Deals also get delayed. If it's a year out, can you find someplace else to put that money that will pay more than that 5%? That's less than interest on margin assuming it takes exactly a year. You can certainly take on that risk buying into mergers is a trade strategy but I'm not terribly familiar with it I've just found myself in the position of holding a company that is a merge target and I have always let it go when it spikes. You should research how the general strategy of buying a merge target to collect the payment on the merge date before jumping in. Make sure you understand the typical pitfalls and risks. Another reason I normally ditch it it's uncommon enough I don't want to put in the effort of learning the strategy when I have other plays I'd rather put the effort into learning.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 14:01
|
|
|
cr0y posted:Number go down? 😥 CPI report was something like 0.4% above expectations, so it's another round of inflation doomsday scenarios. Commence panic selling.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 14:19
|
|
|
Sand Monster posted:CPI report was something like 0.4% above expectations, so it's another round of inflation doomsday scenarios. Commence panic selling. So securities are going on sale? Nice.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 14:27
|
|
|
Sand Monster posted:CPI report was something like 0.4% above expectations, so it's another round of inflation doomsday scenarios. Commence panic selling. https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1414929603160854531?s=19 Looks bullish to me until I can't afford to do those activities anymore.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 14:36
|
|
|
Oscar Wild posted:Looks bullish to me until I can't afford to do those activities anymore. Yep. Cars is driven by the chip shortage and the rental cars driven by demand (and companies having sold off their inventory and not able to replace it yet due to the aforementioned shortage). Comparing year over year is unquestionably going to show a substantial difference. Once again, something that was the definition of what should have been "priced in" results in market behavior otherwise, with the additional layer of confusion being the question of where these sellers are fleeing to exactly. It's really bizarre.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 14:58
|
|
|
VERB is currently trading at 2.50 and just announced their sales platform is going to be integrated into Outlook.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 15:02
|
|
|
Sand Monster posted:Yep. Cars is driven by the chip shortage and the rental cars driven by demand (and companies having sold off their inventory and not able to replace it yet due to the aforementioned shortage). Comparing year over year is unquestionably going to show a substantial difference.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 15:09
|
|
|
Uranium 235 posted:it was a relatively low volume flush in pre-market trading that immediately got bought when the market opened. in the grand scheme of things it wasn't even a blip Fair enough then, I hadn't looked since the first few minutes after the report came out and assumed it would be the sustained panic selling we've seen after previous (similar) reports.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 15:13
|
|
|
Sand Monster posted:Fair enough then, I hadn't looked since the first few minutes after the report came out and assumed it would be the sustained panic selling we've seen after previous (similar) reports. there wasn't much of a reaction last time CPI numbers came out SPY is back to yesterday's closing price, QQQ is at new highs
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 15:31
|
|
|
SPY just shakes everything off
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 15:37
|
|
|
pixaal posted:There's typically a buy out price that is set in the deal and the price typically goes pretty drat close to it. I remember I had Panera when they went private. It was several months out and within pennies of the buy out price so I took my money and ran. Thanks for this post, it is incredibly helpful!
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 15:47
|
|
|
A HORNY SWEARENGEN posted:Since this is the unofficial oat milk thread, I've been putting oat milk in my coffee for weeks and it's been incredible, but I just now put sugar free oat milk on Cheerios and it kicked up my post-gym snacking 1000%
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 16:10
|
|
|
Someone bought puts Stocktwits is an absolute cesspool btw
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 16:25
|
|
|
Why are they not just doing a ZEBRA over the weekly SPY options to have 100 Delta over the underlaying with 0 Extrinsic value for a fraction of buying long stock? I mean come on.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 16:27
|
|
|
cirus posted:VERB is currently trading at 2.50 and just announced their sales platform is going to be integrated into Outlook. So. Volatile. I know almost nothing of the platform, and the history is just one big u shape. why should anyone buy in now and not wait for another dip? Also it needs a subscription, how large is the market for sending outlook videos? How even is the video storage handled that the receiving end can access it w/o needing huge data storage volumes on their mail server?
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 16:51
|
|
|
cr0y posted:Someone bought puts I mean. They're not wrong though I guess that's trading in general.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 16:51
|
|
|
Sorry I didn't follow up on friday's risk adjustment chat, I wound up pretty busy over the weekend. I really appreciate the guys who went ahead and took a stab at calculating their alpha, I feel like it was helpfully illustrative. The takeaway being: yeah, you're making serious bank and that is very cool, but you're also trading on serious volatility and so if you wanted to just do a 10x leveraged SPY or something, you could do that too and experience the sick gains with similar risk. Maybe. Just generally I think this helps to inform the thread of what's going on. I think a key service this thread should provide is de-mystifying what successful traders are doing, and attention to risk factors is IMO a critical part of that.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 16:56
|
|
|
Ubiquitus posted:So. Volatile. I know almost nothing of the platform, and the history is just one big u shape. why should anyone buy in now and not wait for another dip? I imagine VERB will host the videos and they will embed like youtube links. If both parties need the plugin installed there's going to be a problem with people receiving this not wanting to install the plugin just to view marketing material. Someone you are already doing business with and are showing a new product line maybe would do it but that's still a big ask. I can't find anything to saying if both parties need the software but I also don't see anything saying they don't.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 16:56
|
|
|
Soooo all the things nobody bought last year has a big y/y increase. 
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 16:58
|
|
|
Gambled on SPY calls this morning for the first time since it broke 400, got caught up with work meetings and when I checked them after I won. Woohoo smart investing.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 17:30
|
|
|
Yeeeehaw! Go OXBR! I have no clue what this company does or why anyone would buy it, but the charts said it would go up and look at 'er go! Another win for team Technical Analysis!
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 17:56
|
|
|
Leperflesh posted:Sorry I didn't follow up on friday's risk adjustment chat, I wound up pretty busy over the weekend. I really appreciate the guys who went ahead and took a stab at calculating their alpha, I feel like it was helpfully illustrative. The takeaway being: yeah, you're making serious bank and that is very cool, but you're also trading on serious volatility and so if you wanted to just do a 10x leveraged SPY or something, you could do that too and experience the sick gains with similar risk. Maybe. that much leverage makes risk management pretty hard, especially if you're holding overnight edit: another thing about just holding a leveraged index is that it's really awesome when the market is in a strong bull market like we're in now, but when the party's over, it's not fun anymore. if you haven't developed any trading skills then what do you do? since i can trade multiple setups, long or short, large or small cap, bull or bear market, i have opportunities to make money every day regardless of the market conditions. not saying i'm equally good in all conditions, but i am adaptable. Uranium 235 fucked around with this message at 18:19 on Jul 13, 2021 |
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 18:06
|
|
|
Leperflesh posted:I think a key service this thread should provide is de-mystifying what successful traders are doing I would encourage people to look at options on lower volume stocks. "efficient markets" seems to break down pretty quickly when you get into positions where you are pushing a significant chunk of the daily volume. The "market buy" button gets hit more often than you would think. That's on the other side of the spectrum from what the majority are doing in here, all y'all adhd flavor of the day traders. I guess its just my grinding style. I mean, I'm also the guy who gets a kick out of bumhunting drunks at the MGM 1/2, instead of going to sit with the big boys at Aria. Low risk, + returns. I hate losing.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 18:08
|
|
|
What happened 😢
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 18:20
|
|
|
Uranium 235 posted:Absolutely. There have been some distinct periods in the market that have been unusually profitable for me. Each time, conditions eventually changed that took those opportunities away. Or: you've had periods where you've been more lucky than usual, and have unconsciously crafted narratives to explain how your actions were the key contributor to that luck 
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 18:22
|
|
|
wtf NQ you stopped right below 15000. rude... i had the t-shirts and caps already printed
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 18:24
|
|
|
New Found Power posted:Or: you've had periods where you've been more lucky than usual, and have unconsciously crafted narratives to explain how your actions were the key contributor to that luck
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 18:25
|
|
|
Or maybe your just lying about all this as part of an elaborate hoax to protect your ego?
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 18:26
|
|
|
DapperDraculaDeer posted:Or maybe your just lying about all this as part of an elaborate hoax to protect your ego? that's definitely it
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 18:30
|
|
|
bought some "AST SpaceMobile" since it seems to be doing what starlink's doing except doing it better
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 18:57
|
|
|
Baddog posted:I hate losing. Just doing some analysis here. Its hard to calculate a "true" ROI from selling puts - it requires a lot of capital, but nowhere near all of that capital is really *at risk*, unless everything goes to zero in the same month. I do keep track of what would happen if the underlying in my positions all dropped 50% in a black-monday event, in order to manage risk of ruin. But unfortunately I don't keep track of that consistently, and it fluctuates significantly, even day to day. However I believe my monthly returns over the last 12 months have averaged about 4-5% (per month) against that risk. The standard deviation on that is right at half the average. Looking at even a pretty fat tailed distribution, there isn't a lot of probability on the negative side, which is what I like! And that's what I've seen - even the month biogen blew up in my face (when the advisory committee said their alzheimers drug was bullshit), I had + returns. Its always good to not have all your eggs in one basket, lately I've usually had 10-15 positions a month, and over the past 12 months I've had 135 winners vs 7 losers. Which is just a little worse than the 20:1 ratio I've been aiming for. And only Biogen and Curevac managed to get away from me for big losses. But sure, its been a pretty good 12 months to be selling oom puts. I need almost another year of this to be able to fully cover a monster 50% drawdown black swan, hopefully I'll get there before it happens! Then we can run the numbers over that event and see what it looks like.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 19:03
|
|
|
hbag posted:bought some "AST SpaceMobile" since it seems to be doing what starlink's doing except doing it better do they have a vertically integrated launch provider
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 19:13
|
|
|
$SBUX, Starbucks, has an impressive run the past week or two. Just straight up. Also huge bullish options volume on it today. I see no news or google trends that would appear to justify this. It's also not just before or after earnings. Anyone see news of relevance on SBUX? If anything I think their post-pandemic recovery is not gonna be amazing since lots of people bought coffee makers to ride out the pandemic, and many people are still social distancing. But SBUX market cap is up by like 30% compared to pre-pandemic. Not unique among large caps, but, interesting.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 19:58
|
|
|
I have to ask if anyone in this thread is still bagholding AHT in a significant way. I sold most of it at a loss after the initial crash, but it only partially executed and I just kinda held onto the last chunk for giggles, it's just a couple hundred bucks and I thought maybe it'll go back up a little. But... 
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 20:12
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 8, 2024 04:08 |
|
|
Ror posted:I have to ask if anyone in this thread is still bagholding AHT in a significant way. I sold most of it at a loss after the initial crash, but it only partially executed and I just kinda held onto the last chunk for giggles, it's just a couple hundred bucks and I thought maybe it'll go back up a little. I sold 7/16 5p x10, for a current loss of $2,276.63 that I will in all likelihood hold till expiration I've been loving with bb, mvis, and tcs for the last year and this will be my first time getting burned, so I can't really be mad about it 
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2021 20:39
|
|
