PawParole posted:

map of tigray

PawParole posted:

https://twitter.com/markc_anderson/...%5Es1_&ref_url=

kustomkarkommando posted:

https://twitter.com/AFPAfrica/status/1414528820493832194?s=19

Specifically KZN (especially Pietermaritzburg) and Gauteng. We still have some goons in Jozi don't we? Everything definitely points to the riots being Zuma sentence related but always interested to hear from anyone in the thick of it

KinkyJohn posted:

Zuma is our Zulu Trump.

KinkyJohn posted:

They've also just looted a blood bank, petrol bombed hospitals and water tankers and are firing automatic rifles at ambulances.

There is speculation that a large part of the unrest (certainly the more destructive parts) are being instigated by factions within the ANC who want Ramaphosa to fail and see somebody in power who will pardon Zuma.

Zuma is our Zulu Trump. He's the reason a lot of these people are unemployed to begin with.

Fuschia tude posted:

I liked this NYT story about the turnaround in the Tigray war. Apparently they're going to push for a referendum to secede. It's hard to see this going any other way, at this point.

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

I like the article too but it would be nice to see them be a liiiiittle more critical of the TDF considering they've also, yknow, been accused of atrocities

Count Roland posted:

It rings true to me (as just some guy in North America, but I did at least work in SA for a few months) that parts of the ANC are instigating this. Either to make Ramaphosa look bad or to somehow apply pressure to get Zuma off (no idea if this is possible) or as a sort of lesson: this is what happens when you convict someone of corruption, better not do it to anyone else.

Saladman posted:

"many [Tigrayans were] distrustful of a governing Tigrayan party [i.e. the TDF / TPLF] seen as tired, authoritarian and corrupt."

Also if the TPLF does push into Wolkait, we have certainly not seen the last of the atrocities committed of the war. The TPLF did recapture Raya, but from what I understand (and I could well be wrong), Wolkait was the much more significant tinderbox / source of longstanding animosity. OTOH Tigray would have zero chance of being an independent country without retaking Wolkait, since otherwise it would border only Ethiopia (Afar and Amhara regions) and Eritrea. I was also surprised they recaptured Raya so fast though - just this past week, and only two weeks after they recaptured the main Tigrayan heartland.

PawParole posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AwasaGua...870784015806468

Discendo Vox posted:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/05/26/statement-by-president-joe-biden-on-the-crisis-in-ethiopia/

???

Discendo Vox posted:

It’s a pretty significant distinction, yeah.

PawParole posted:

Wolkayit
[WELKAYIT]
Wolqait

PawParole posted:

Tigrayans captured Raya in the south. They are now moving to Western Tigray or what Amharas called Wolkayit.

they are literally at the gates of Gonder, every able man and women is being called up to arms

quote:

KINSHASA (Reuters) -Former Congolese Prime Minister Matata Ponyo Mapon has been freed from house arrest after he agreed to make himself available to answer questions about the alleged misappropriation of government funds, his lawyer said.

PawParole posted:

https://twitter.com/AwasaGuardian/s...%5Es1_&ref_url=

Saladman posted:

That tweet is some serious scaremongering. There's no chance that TPLF are going to invade Afar. There's nothing for them to capture and it wouldn't open up any trade routes for them, unless they captured all the way to Djibouti which would be pretty outlandish and would require a complete collapse of the ENDF, considering the lack of defensible terrain and a hostile local population and Afar is huge and would require long-distance resupply routes over terrible non-roads with a complete lack of cover of any kind.

Wolkait might be a disaster though as the TPLF might well invade since at this point it seems kind of existential for them to have a border with Sudan. Declaring Tigrayan independence if they're connected to Afar, Ethiopia, and Amhara is almost as impractical as the half-eaten corpse of the "A and B" territory of the West Bank becoming an independent country.

PawParole posted:

there’s rumors that they aim to cut the railroad and that most of the federal army has been destroyed. If they are depending on special forces and militias from other states so heavily, the destruction of entire divisions of the Ethiopian army is indeed true.

Saladman posted:

That sounds kind of outlandish imho; if the TNDF gets anywhere even remotely close to cutting the Addis-Djibouti railway, then the ENDF has been entirely destroyed and the war is over, no need to destroy the railway by that point. The railway only runs through the very, very southern tip of Afar in a short ~20km stretch at Awash town. Right now the TNDF are still like 500 km away from it so they'd have to not only take 100% of Afar, but also significant parts of the Somali and Amhara regions.



Right now the TNDF is still like 50 km north of Weldiya. There are no roads connecting the northern part of Afar (e.g. Berhale, connected by paved road to Mekele) to the southern part (e.g. Semre, connected by road to Weldiya). Yeah you could drive through the rocky desert at 10 kph, but there's no cover, very long and good visibility, and they'd be in an area with a sparsely populated area but with heavily armed and antagonistic locals, so any convoy could be easily disabled by guerrillas or destroyed by drones.

PawParole posted:

Why do you assume it’ll be hostile? The Afar region isn’t controlled by the federal government and is the most maverick region, it might switch sides and decide that Tigray would be better for them as allies.

there’s also a road that was cut during the Somali afar clash and that caused a shortage of gasoline in Addis Ababa. If they can destroy or take that road then the ENDF won’t be able to fuel its tanks

quote:

"It's going to go on - the war - for sure. The Amhara and the Tigrayan people used to be as brother and sister. But we are not giving up our land so the blood[shed] is going to continue," said a bank worker and mother of two, who recently arrived in Hamdayet and asked for her name to be withheld.

PawParole posted:

PawParole posted:

"tghat posted:

The enemy we are facing is an enemy which is the cancer of Ethiopia. The junta is probably the only group in history that used its political power to disintegrate its own country. As the saying goes “a familiar devil is not easily dislodged”, so the junta will attempt to cling on desperately.

We can confidently say, the junta will be uprooted in a manner that will ensure it will not bud again.

This will happen if we collaborate to remove the invasive weed. In the process, individuals may err; divisive information may be heard. Even though we are united as to our end, there may be arguments about the means.

In any case, this will not stop us from achieving our goal. The children of Ethiopia have risen from all four corners to undo the plans of the junta. This itself is a victory. The children of Ethiopia have identified their enemy. And they know what they have to do. And they will do it.

Forces who are afraid of our unity will do everything they deem to be divisive. They conspire to divert our wrath from them toward our own. But we will never do that.

The unity we have created now is what destroyed the old conspiracy of the junta and what will destroy the owner of the conspiracy and which will ensure the renaissance of the country they had conspired against.

Our defense and regional forces are getting into their (fighting) positions. There will be attempts to sabotage this. We will respond accordingly while respecting the ceasefire we declared unilaterally.

We have a strict plan of why, how, when, where, and what to do. The result will soon be evident to both friend and foe. Our army is ready for a spectacular mission.

We will work to remove the weed. But while removing the weed, we will try our best not to damage the wheat.

In our country, we weed collectively. And this is what the children of Ethiopia are doing.

NB: The words “junta, cancer, devil, and weed” have been in use widely in reference to the TPLF. But they are also used as code words to refer to Tigrayans regardless of their political affiliation. It should be noted that, a few weeks ago, Abiy himself has described Tigrayans as collaborators and blamed them for the defeat of the army in Tigray.

PawParole posted:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Ethiopia/c...utm_term=oo3p3a

the l's keep coming

Eastern Command Division ENDF annihilated by TDF in Afar region.

Awoy Yassin Sayid captured.

Eastern Division controls harar,Afar,DDS.

Zedhe Khoja posted:

are the local militias in Afar staying out of the fight or were they part of the government force that got wiped out? basically the only thing I've ever heard about them is that they're militarily scary so it seems weird if they just got annihilated or are letting their area get raided unopposed.