Middle East Thread: Clarissa Explains the Fall

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread: Clarissa Explains the Fall

Nonsense: Jan 26, 2007

We did some really stupid things in Iraq, I don't think we did any better in Afghanistan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdtqT3sWH6E

# ? Jul 12, 2021 02:35

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# ? May 25, 2024 07:21

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Kandahar is routed. Taliban control ANDSF HQ

# ? Jul 12, 2021 05:11

AVeryLargeRadish: Aug 19, 2011; I LITERALLY DON'T KNOW HOW TO NOT BE A WEIRD SEXUAL CREEP ABOUT PREPUBESCENT ANIME GIRLS, READ ALL ABOUT IT HERE!!!

Nonsense posted:

We did some really stupid things in Iraq, I don't think we did any better in Afghanistan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdtqT3sWH6E

I guess it depends on how you want to look at it, on the one hand I feel that we did a lot worse in Iraq, on the other hand I think there was a lot less to gently caress up in Afghanistan in the first place so we never had the same opportunity to gently caress things up in Afghanistan as we did in Iraq.

# ? Jul 12, 2021 05:40

MiddleOne: Feb 17, 2011

Nonsense posted:

We did some really stupid things in Iraq, I don't think we did any better in Afghanistan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdtqT3sWH6E

The only ones worse at policing than actual cops are soldiers, exhibit #405360.

# ? Jul 12, 2021 05:46

freeasinbeer: Mar 26, 2015; by Fluffdaddy

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Kandahar is routed. Taliban control ANDSF HQ

I�m not seeing this anywhere; even in pro taliban stuff. Looks like the Indian embassy is claimed to be overrun.

# ? Jul 12, 2021 07:07

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

freeasinbeer posted:

pro taliban stuff.

you got me curious

https://twitter.com/Waliullahmujah1/status/1414468103380086784

# ? Jul 12, 2021 07:25

Rust Martialis: May 8, 2007; At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Kandahar is routed. Taliban control ANDSF HQ

...said the guy who declared Russia would overrun Odessa.

# ? Jul 12, 2021 08:36

wisconsingreg: Jan 13, 2019

Its happening quickly but not THAT quickly. A military base in west of Kandahar city did fall.

# ? Jul 12, 2021 09:33

poopinmymouth: Mar 2, 2005; PROUD 2 B AMERICAN (these colors don't run)

# ? Jul 12, 2021 13:09

Lost Time: Sep 28, 2012; All necessities, provided. All anxieties, tranquilized. All boredom, amused.

If anyone wants to see another "We told you so" victory lap (actually a long detailed history of the many fuckups with suggestions for change):

https://socialistrevolution.org/afghanistan-humiliating-us-defeat-the-return-of-the-taliban-and-the-threat-of-civil-war/

quote:

Afghanistan is hurtling towards yet another civil war as US and allied forces withdraw after two decades of bloody occupation. The withdrawal of imperialist troops, announced by Joe Biden, is set to be completed by August 31 this year, although most US forces have already left or are in the process of hurriedly abandoning the country while the Taliban is advancing in many areas.

The fact that US imperialism and other allied forces have been forced to withdraw is being presented as solely due to the Taliban. The fact, however, is that the US intervention and occupation of Afghanistan over the last two decades was also met with strong opposition by the local population. There is widespread and burning hatred towards this imperialist war, which has killed tens of thousands of innocent people and plunged the whole country into devastation, instability, and barbarism.

It may well be true that on many occasions, in particular in rural Pashtun areas, the hatred towards western imperialism meant that the local population would either passively accept, or even on occasion help facilitate Taliban attacks. However, this does not mean to say that that the majority of the population had or has any deep-seated sympathy for the arch-reactionary and obscurantist forces of the Taliban.

The tragedy of the situation is that the power vacuum left by the US is being filled in many areas mainly by the Taliban, with its thousands of men under arms, and with the tacit backing of several foreign powers.

After two decades of war, at a cost of more than $2 trillion, the US ruling class has signally failed to achieve any of the aims it announced to the world at the start of the war. After killing countless civilians, carpet bombing many regions, and devastating the lives of millions, the US is leaving after reaching a humiliating agreement with the Taliban. In this so-called peace agreement, signed last year in Doha, Qatar between the Trump administration and the Taliban leadership, the US ceded to all the latter�s demands.

[...]

quote:

20 years ago, the International Marxist Tendency explained why this adventure would only lead to more misery and destitution for the Afghan people, while at the same time destabilizing the whole region. As we explained in November 2001, immediately after the fall of Kabul to US-backed forces:

The Taliban have lost their grip on power, but not their potential for making war. They are very used to fighting a guerrilla war in the mountains. They did it before and can do it again. In the north, they were fighting in alien and hostile territory. But in the villages and mountains of the Pushtoon area, they are in their own homeland. The prospect opens up of a protracted guerrilla campaign which can go on for years. The first part of the allied war campaign was the easy bit. The second part will not be so easy. British and American troops will have to go into the Pushtoon areas on search and destroy missions, where they will be sitting targets for the guerrillas. Casualties will be inevitable. At a certain stage this will have an effect on public opinion in Britain and America.

The Americans had hoped to be able to carry out a quick, surgical strike against bin Laden, relying mainly on air power. Instead, the conflict is becoming ever more complicated and difficult, and the prospect of an end is postponed almost indefinitely. They will have to keep troops stationed not only in Afghanistan but in Pakistan and other countries in order to prop them up�

This is a far worse and more dangerous position than the one in which the Americans found themselves on September 11. Washington will now be compelled to underwrite the bankrupt and unstable regime in Pakistan, as well as all the other �friendly� states in the region, which are being destabilized by its actions. If the aim of this exercise was to combat terrorism, they will find they have achieved the opposite. Before these events, the imperialists could afford to maintain a relatively safe distance from the convulsions and wars of this part of the world, but now they are completely entangled in it. By their actions since September 11, the USA and Britain have got themselves dragged into a quagmire, from which it will be difficult to extricate themselves.

Again, we explained in 2008 that this war was unwinnable for imperialism. After a protracted war, the imperialists would be forced to withdraw, defeated, leaving a trail of destruction in their wake:

In the end the Coalition forces will be compelled to abandon the attempt to occupy Afghanistan. They will leave behind them a trail of death and destruction and a legacy of hatred and bitterness that will last for decades. We do not know which of the rival gangs will dominate the next government in Kabul. What we do know is that, as always, the heaviest price will be paid by the ordinary people, the workers and peasants, the poor, the old, the sick, the women and children.

The terrible fate of the people of Afghanistan is yet another of the innumerable crimes of US imperialism and its allies. The infamous �war on terror,� far from achieving its objectives, has had the opposite result. By its actions the imperialists have provided a powerful impetus to terrorism. They have poured fuel on the flames of fanaticism and thus acted as the main recruiting sergeant for al Qaeda and the Taliban. They have completely wrecked Afghanistan and in the process they have destabilized Pakistan. In the immortal and often quoted words of the Roman historian Tacitus: �And when they have created a wilderness, they call it Peace.�

This analysis has been fully confirmed, while the tall claims of the imperialists lie in tatters. Those liberals and so-called �leftists� and �nationalists� who supported US imperialism have also been exposed in their utter bankruptcy.

[...]

and on from there. I honestly think no lessons will be learned, because in the end the war accomplished its true objective - boosting the industrial complex and providing a fertile playground and excuse to spring more wars.

# ? Jul 12, 2021 17:17

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Fighting in the southern city of Kandahar has left hundreds dead & wounded. Government troops say the militants have seized homes in residential neighborhoods, forcing civilians to flee and complicating efforts to drive the Taliban out of the city

Taliban is advancing in Kabul's Surobi district

In new statement Taliban calls continued presence of Turkish forces in Afghanistan an "occupation" and says that they will treated the same way as the rest of the foreign forces have been treated in past 20 years

# ? Jul 13, 2021 16:30

Haystack: Jan 23, 2005

So apparently Saudi Arabia's national oil company is now on the hook for a whopping 75 billion dollar dividend payment every year due to the lovely terms offered up during its 2019 IPO. That seem, uh, bad.

# ? Jul 13, 2021 16:57

Punkin Spunkin: Jan 1, 2010

I had no idea the Turkish military even had a presence in Afghanistan.

# ? Jul 13, 2021 16:59

lobster shirt: Jun 14, 2021

Yeah, Turkey had troops there as part of the ISAF and then Resolute Support. I believe Erdogan also offered to leave Turkish troops behind to secure the airports, which is what probably drew that Taliban comment about considering them occupiers.

# ? Jul 13, 2021 17:04

Zedhe Khoja: Nov 10, 2017; sürgünden selamlar
yıkıcılar ulusuna

e: beaten by a better post ^^^
Surobi is an interesting loss because of the part it plays in the water infrastructure of the capital. If there's a siege loving with that could cause problems. I'm shocked they let go of it so easily, but nothing about the past 20 years makes me think anyone in either the American or Afghan gov. knows or cares about things like infrastructure in Afghanistan outside of siphoning off funding to the Cayman islands.

# ? Jul 13, 2021 17:06

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

Haystack posted:

So apparently Saudi Arabia's national oil company is now on the hook for a whopping 75 billion dollar dividend payment every year due to the lovely terms offered up during its 2019 IPO. That seem, uh, bad.

Seems good, if you're a shareholder

# ? Jul 13, 2021 17:12

Haystack: Jan 23, 2005

I won't deny the schadenfreude, but still that's, like, nearly twice India's annual military budget. The mind boggles.

# ? Jul 13, 2021 17:55

Dr Kool-AIDS: Mar 26, 2004

There have been some rumors that Turkey's going to send their FSA mercenaries to Afghanistan like they did to Nagorno-Karabakh and Libya, but there have been rumors about places they never showed up like Yemen too, so nobody knows how seriously to take it yet. I think one concern is that some of the more extremist oriented ones might just defect once they got there.

# ? Jul 13, 2021 17:57

wisconsingreg: Jan 13, 2019

Taliban going to attack troops that remain after deadline

# ? Jul 13, 2021 19:26

Source4Leko: Jul 25, 2007; Dinosaur Gum

The embassy security being Afghan is going to be a total non-starter for basically everyone.

# ? Jul 13, 2021 19:52

MiddleOne: Feb 17, 2011

As if any embassy is staying around for a prospective siege of Kabul.

# ? Jul 13, 2021 20:21

Count Roland: Oct 6, 2013

Source4Leko posted:

The embassy security being Afghan is going to be a total non-starter for basically everyone.

Yeah that's a weird one.

And what's up with the lunar and solar calendar? I know things like Ramadan are celebrated based on a lunar calendar which I assume it's what's mentioned there. Who uses the solar calendar?

# ? Jul 13, 2021 22:40

Source4Leko: Jul 25, 2007; Dinosaur Gum

MiddleOne posted:

As if any embassy is staying around for a prospective siege of Kabul.

More like in the long term aftermath. If that's a permanent thing then very very few countries are gonna set things back up after the fall of Kabul.

# ? Jul 13, 2021 23:07

Nonsense: Jan 26, 2007

Source4Leko posted:

More like in the long term aftermath. If that's a permanent thing then very very few countries are gonna set things back up after the fall of Kabul.

They're betting on the PRC's RBI initiatives to pick up the slack most likely.

# ? Jul 13, 2021 23:13

Reveilled: Apr 19, 2007; Take up your rifles

Count Roland posted:

Yeah that's a weird one.

And what's up with the lunar and solar calendar? I know things like Ramadan are celebrated based on a lunar calendar which I assume it's what's mentioned there. Who uses the solar calendar?

Iran and Afghanistan, apparently.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_Hijri_calendar

# ? Jul 14, 2021 02:30

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Wheeled artillery is now shelling Kandahar.

# ? Jul 14, 2021 02:50

Dr Kool-AIDS: Mar 26, 2004

I genuinely don't understand why the US isn't bombing the gently caress out of them. Even if Biden/the military see a Taliban victory as inevitable, just watching it happen before the withdrawal is even finished seems bonkers. I saw a theory that the military are deliberately making Biden look bad to punish him for pulling out, but I don't really buy it.

I guess maybe there could be a deal not to get in each other's way too much during the withdrawal?

Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 03:38 on Jul 14, 2021

# ? Jul 14, 2021 03:22

MechanicalTomPetty: Oct 30, 2011; Runnin' down a dream
That never would come to me

Sinteres posted:

I genuinely don't understand why the US isn't bombing the gently caress out of them. Even if Biden/the military see a Taliban victory as inevitable, just watching it happen before the withdrawal is even finished seems bonkers. I saw a theory that the military are deliberately making Biden look bad to punish him for pulling out, but I don't really buy it.

I guess maybe there could be a deal not to get in each other's way too much during the withdrawal?

Frankly I think everyone is just exhausted at this point. I've barely seen any news about it outside this thread and the occasional blurb on the current events page of Wikipedia; maybe the news cycle will start to heat up once Kabul starts to choke but honestly the writing's been on the wall for a long time and even the most bloodthirsty warhawks have to know by now how this ones going to end.

# ? Jul 14, 2021 03:59

OctaMurk: Jun 21, 2013

Sinteres posted:

I genuinely don't understand why the US isn't bombing the gently caress out of them. Even if Biden/the military see a Taliban victory as inevitable, just watching it happen before the withdrawal is even finished seems bonkers. I saw a theory that the military are deliberately making Biden look bad to punish him for pulling out, but I don't really buy it.

I guess maybe there could be a deal not to get in each other's way too much during the withdrawal?

What do we get by bombing them more when we're going to leave very soon anyways?

# ? Jul 14, 2021 04:25

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

OctaMurk posted:

What do we get by bombing them more when we're going to leave very soon anyways?

What have we ever gotten out of bombing anything?

# ? Jul 14, 2021 04:27

Charliegrs: Aug 10, 2009

Effective bombing probably requires quite a few boots on the ground to assist with targeting. Something we probably don't have in Afghanistan anymore.

# ? Jul 14, 2021 04:43

LibCrusher: Jan 6, 2019; by Fluffdaddy

Charliegrs posted:

Effective bombing probably requires quite a few boots on the ground to assist with targeting. Something we probably don't have in Afghanistan anymore.

Not against wheeled artillery

# ? Jul 14, 2021 04:47

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

https://twitter.com/i/status/1415026800594391041

# ? Jul 14, 2021 05:00

wisconsingreg: Jan 13, 2019

Sinteres posted:

I genuinely don't understand why the US isn't bombing the gently caress out of them. Even if Biden/the military see a Taliban victory as inevitable, just watching it happen before the withdrawal is even finished seems bonkers. I saw a theory that the military are deliberately making Biden look bad to punish him for pulling out, but I don't really buy it.

I guess maybe there could be a deal not to get in each other's way too much during the withdrawal?

NATO powers have already said they are willing to all but recognize the Taliban as the rulers of Afghanistan if they win. In the simplest words, they do not care who controls Afghanistan anymore.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...h-idUSKBN2EJ2LB

quote:

"Whatever the government of the day is, provided it adheres to certain international norms, the UK government will engage with it," he was quoted as saying in the newspaper.

# ? Jul 14, 2021 07:09

wisconsingreg: Jan 13, 2019

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1415258332189843461

One of the largest Pakistan-Afghanistan border crossings has been captured.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57818221

This not only will facilitate cross border connections, but cuts off Kandahar from the south.

# ? Jul 14, 2021 12:42

Dr Kool-AIDS: Mar 26, 2004

OctaMurk posted:

What do we get by bombing them more when we're going to leave very soon anyways?

Even Vietnam didn't see the total collapse of South Vietnam immediately as we were withdrawing. Maybe it's good not to needlessly prolong things even more than we have, but I'm surprised that Biden and the military don't see this massive advance while we're still technically there as humiliating enough to get them to put some speedbumps in the Taliban's way. Just like a 'hey, knock it off, you know you're going to win but don't rub our faces in it if you don't want to get hit.'

# ? Jul 14, 2021 14:36

WoodrowSkillson: Feb 24, 2005; *Gestures at 60 years of Lions history*

more bombing wont solve anything. we already did so much loving damage there, and set up the dominoes to fall. now they are falling, and blowing up some 18 year old taliban fighters manning an artillery piece wont solve anything, and just pokes them in the eye more on our way out. my heart breaks for all of the people in afghanistan that have seen this coming for 10 years and now have another period of terrifying uncertainly ahead. however i don't see any way we can actually protect them, short of just invading all over again. in terms of countries and societies, the better course is to stop loving with them and let things progress as they will. for every individual tragedy and atrocity that we prevent, we create 2 more.

# ? Jul 14, 2021 14:42

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

Americans barely pay/paid any attention to the Afghanistan war, the 'humiliation' wont affect him at all.

The real embarassment will come later if the Taliban-China-Pakistan projects bear fruit and life ends up sucking significantly less than at any point during the twenty-year US occupation. And bombs right now wouldn't stop that.

# ? Jul 14, 2021 14:45

How are u: May 19, 2005; by Azathoth

Looks like the US will be evacuating translators and other Afghans who've helped us, within a week or two.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/14/biden-afghan-interpreters-evacuation-499625

# ? Jul 14, 2021 16:52

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# ? May 25, 2024 07:21

WoodrowSkillson: Feb 24, 2005; *Gestures at 60 years of Lions history*

How are u posted:

Looks like the US will be evacuating translators and other Afghans who've helped us, within a week or two.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/14/biden-afghan-interpreters-evacuation-499625

way to be on the ball guys, just a bang up job

# ? Jul 14, 2021 16:58

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