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Strep Vote
May 5, 2004

أنا أحب حليب الشوكولاتة

monkeytennis posted:

Do you know what the care industry is like in the UK? The 12 months I spent working around it were awful, no care for the workers at all. They were just replaceable drones.

Anyway. I know a lady who is 50 and has a lung condition. Something to do with pre asbestosis or something.

She’s caught COVID and is not well. I said I was surprised as I’d read that people with both shots generally didn’t get too sick.

She said she hadn’t bothered getting vaccinated as ‘what’s the point if you can still catch it’.

:negative:

Yes, I wasn't firing the right neurons and getting learnincurve confused with someone else. I'm an rear end my bad. e: get vaccinated and continue to wear a mask to protect yourself from becoming brain damaged like me!

I still think the immune system, a hot mess of baroque evolutionary intricacies that we don't fully understand, has more points of failure than a decent mask you slap over your gob to keep the possibly tainted air away from your precious ACE2 receptors. It's not about the vaccine, it's just about how weird bodies are and can be. Both vaccine and mask are preferable, obviously, but dropping masks was such an unforced public health error I'm still kind of reeling at it.

Strep Vote fucked around with this message at 03:44 on Jul 15, 2021

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Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
https://twitter.com/DataDrivenMD/status/1415490036401770496?s=20
Cool and good.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
Sixty-six percent isn’t remotely high enough for herd immunity. The vaccines could provide sterilizing immunity in every person who got them, and the virus would still spread exponentially in the unvaccinated masses.

What did people expect? The fact that it didn’t get much worse, much sooner is a testament to the (poorly understood) seasonality of coronaviruses.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
People, by and large, seem to think that covid is over. This includes people who took it seriously at the start, not just the deniers.

nexous
Jan 14, 2003

I just want to be pure

Zugzwang posted:

People, by and large, seem to think that covid is over. This includes people who took it seriously at the start, not just the deniers.

I, for one, am looking forward to being smarter than everyone because I didn’t get long covid brain damage, only alcohol induced brain damage

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

nexous posted:

I, for one, am looking forward to being smarter than everyone because I didn’t get long covid brain damage, only alcohol induced brain damage
Same but sleep deprivation-induced brain damage in my case

Seriously though, I live near a major city and a bunch of my 20something coworkers are talking about moving there from the 'burbs for "the big post-covid party." There will no doubt be parties, but not post-covid ones.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS
Victoria is going into lockdown tonight. Thanks Gladys.

learnincurve
May 15, 2014

Smoosh
Sort of good news from plague island.

The right wing newspapers are all shocked an amazed that private businesses are taking up the option of asking customers to wear masks still.

Lots of rumours about transport and transport hubs being made mask zones, first two big businesses to come out with a mask policy are Waterstones (books) and Sainsbury’s (supermarket and Argos mail order)

Akuma
Sep 11, 2001


My kids secondary school in England is asking all the kids to mask up again, after dropping it months ago at the behest of the government, causing an uptick in cases. Which is surprising and welcome. Using masks again, not the cases.

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008


Why wouldn’t places with huge quantities of unvaccinated people continue to get high infection rates? Is the confusion or shock performative?

LanceHunter
Nov 12, 2016

Beautiful People Club


Fallom posted:

Why wouldn’t places with huge quantities of unvaccinated people continue to get high infection rates? Is the confusion or shock performative?

COVID horseshoe theory: People pushing maximum concern/fear about COVID end up becoming vaccine denialists just like the people who think COVID is a hoax.

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right

Fallom posted:

Why wouldn’t places with huge quantities of unvaccinated people continue to get high infection rates? Is the confusion or shock performative?

Yeah if they've got 66% full vaccination in their county of 766,000 people that means that there's still about 200,000 people who are unvaxxed and 60,000 who are partially vaxxed, so 40 to 50 cases a day isn't great but it's not a huge surprise.


E: I googled and they've been fully reopened since June 14 with all schools and businesses open, no physical distancing requirements for most settings, no capacity limits for businesses, eased masking requirements and no mask requirements for vaccinated people in most settings, etc etc..
https://cmo.smcgov.org/press-release/june-14-2021-california-and-san-mateo-county-reopen-vaccinations-remain-key-ending

66% fully vaxxed and next-to-no NPIs means cases go up!

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
https://twitter.com/axios/status/1415419582001467392

Thanks, Japan. Working hard. :thumbsup:

Jeza
Feb 13, 2011

The cries of the dead are terrible indeed; you should try not to hear them.
why not get a robot to do it? stupid, stupid...

Dren
Jan 5, 2001

Pillbug

wtf is that cdc case rate data? doesn’t match up with other sources

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
I don’t know about this Dr Caballero, but Bedford’s work has been good.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1410376344735678468

Now that’s a big wave.

Via this Caballero thread:

https://twitter.com/DataDrivenMD/status/1412201867862450176

Dren
Jan 5, 2001

Pillbug
I’m not impugning Dr Caballero, I checked the CDC case rate data for those counties he mentioned and it is wildly different from other sources.

Galewolf
Jan 9, 2007

The human gallbladder is indeed a puzzle!

There Was An Attempt Meme.jpeg

Calling the Olympic Village orgies being ground zero for superspreader event.

learnincurve
May 15, 2014

Smoosh

Jeza posted:

why not get a robot to do it? stupid, stupid...

Formula 1 had robots delver the trophies and it was one of the best things I’ve witnessed in the sport.

Charles 2 of Spain
Nov 7, 2017

I will never trust anyone calling themselves "DataDrivenMD"

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
BNT162b2 vaccine breakthrough: clinical characteristics of 152 fully-vaccinated hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Israel

quote:

Objectives

mRNA COVID-19 vaccines have shown high effectiveness in the prevention of symptomatic COVID-19, hospitalization, severe disease, and death. Nevertheless, a minority of vaccinated individuals might get infected and suffer significant morbidity. Characteristics of vaccine breakthrough infections have not been studied. We sought to portray the population of Israeli patients, who were hospitalized with COVID-19 despite full vaccination.

Methods

A retrospective multicenter cohort study of 17 hospitals included Pfizer/BioNTech's BNT162b2 fully-vaccinated patients who developed COVID-19 more than 7 days after the second vaccine dose and required hospitalization. The risk for poor outcome, defined as a composite of mechanical ventilation or death, was assessed.

Results

152 patients were included, accounting for half of hospitalized fully-vaccinated patients in Israel. Poor outcome was noted in 38 patients and mortality rate reached 22% (34/152). Notable, the cohort was characterized by a high rate of comorbidities predisposing to severe COVID-19, including hypertension (108, 71%), diabetes (73, 48%), CHF (41, 27%), chronic kidney and lung diseases (37, 24% each), dementia (29, 19%), and cancer (36, 24%), and only 6 (%) had no comorbidities. Sixty (40%) of the patients were immunocompromised. Higher SARS-CoV-2 viral-load was associated with a significant risk for poor outcome. Risk also appeared higher in patients receiving anti-CD20 treatment and in patients with low titers of anti-spike IgG, but these differences did not reach statistical significance.

Conclusions

We found that severe COVID-19 infection, associated with a high mortality rate, might develop in a minority of fully-vaccinated individuals with multiple comorbidities. Our patients had a higher rate of comorbidities and immunosuppression compared to previously reported non-vaccinated hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Further characterization of this vulnerable population may help to develop guidance to augment their protection, either by continued social-distancing, or by additional active or passive vaccinations.

learnincurve
May 15, 2014

Smoosh
The U.K. numbers guy Professor Ferguson has had a wild wild ride over covid and can’t openly post on Twitter anymore.

He’s a director here and it’s either him or his people posting


https://twitter.com/Imperial_JIDEA

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

Charles 2 of Spain posted:

I will never trust anyone calling themselves "DataDrivenMD"

“I follow the data” is like bright stripes on a snake

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

E: I googled and they've been fully reopened since June 14 with all schools and businesses open, no physical distancing requirements for most settings, no capacity limits for businesses, eased masking requirements and no mask requirements for vaccinated people in most settings, etc etc..
https://cmo.smcgov.org/press-release/june-14-2021-california-and-san-mateo-county-reopen-vaccinations-remain-key-ending

66% fully vaxxed and next-to-no NPIs means cases go up!
Yeah, CA has been "open 'er up!" Not many people wear masks anymore, even though of course nobody's verifying who's vaxxed and who isn't.

Dren posted:

wtf is that cdc case rate data? doesn’t match up with other sources
Ok, that is odd.

Platystemon posted:

I don’t know about this Dr Caballero, but Bedford’s work has been good.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1410376344735678468

Now that’s a big wave.

Via this Caballero thread:

https://twitter.com/DataDrivenMD/status/1412201867862450176
Yikes. That's even more people than have been officially infected so far, although that number is surely undercounted.

RoastBeef
Jul 11, 2008


Lord Stimperor posted:

Buying her that avatar is a real dick move. Does someone have the original? Let's put it back there.




learnincurve
May 15, 2014

Smoosh
from what we’ve seen in the U.K. 25% of infections being in children may be on the low side


I wonder if that DataDriven guy has fallen for that thing NHS-E were warning scientists about where perfectly brilliant people are accidentally falling for very well faked data?

E; a very sweet and kind admin took pity and blanked me :)

wilderthanmild
Jun 21, 2010

Posting shit




Grimey Drawer

Zugzwang posted:

Yikes. That's even more people than have been officially infected so far, although that number is surely undercounted.

Yeah, I think that estimate is based on around 30% of the population having prior infection. So a bit over 100m people infected so far in the US. Assuming similar rate of finding cases, you'd see something like 12m more counted cases.


Dren posted:

wtf is that cdc case rate data? doesn’t match up with other sources

Yeah, nothing seems to remotely match those CDC totals. I did find this in their footnotes:

quote:

Data presented here might differ from data on state and local websites. This can be due to differences in how data were collected (e.g., date a specimen was obtained or the date a case was reported) or how the metrics are calculated. Data presented here use standard metrics across all United States counties. For the most accurate and up-to-date data for a specific county or state, visit the relevant state or local health department website.

I think the bolded part might explain the significant difference, but it doesn't specify how they are actually reporting it. Some places use date specimen was collected, others use onset of symptoms, others just go by when the case was reported. I have a feeling they are using date case was reported, since that's a thing that would explain this specific discrepancy, but without details I have no idea. Even with that, their results are so massively different it doesn't make sense to me unless they are somehow really screwing the pooch by using date they accepted the data, which with CDC data is often really inconsistent. I guess the other option is they are trying to fudge the numbers when they have incomplete data and it's just throwing up dumb numbers for recent weeks, but you'd think they'd mention it in the footnotes

Edit:

quote:

Cases are based on date of report and not on date of symptom onset.
So it doesn't really explain the difference with other sources, as Date Reported isn't usually that different from date of onset or date of test, but they claim it's date of report. Maybe it's a lot of catch up old data getting reported as new data?

wilderthanmild fucked around with this message at 15:53 on Jul 15, 2021

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

learnincurve posted:

I wonder if that DataDriven guy has fallen for that thing NHS-E were warning scientists about where perfectly brilliant people are accidentally falling for very well faked data?

Why would the Centers for Disease Control fake data?

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005
We need some news footage highlighting young people in the hospital. I need another shame angle.

stab
Feb 12, 2003

To you from failing hands we throw the torch, be yours to hold it high

Get the tiny Fifa car to deliver the medals

Blorange
Jan 31, 2007

A wizard did it

Zugzwang posted:

Yeah, CA has been "open 'er up!" Not many people wear masks anymore, even though of course nobody's verifying who's vaxxed and who isn't.

Ok, that is odd.

Yikes. That's even more people than have been officially infected so far, although that number is surely undercounted.

I did some bullshit napkin math based on case rates and my state's vaccination levels and came to a similar number, ~20% infected where the government didn't actively try and make things worse.

wilderthanmild
Jun 21, 2010

Posting shit




Grimey Drawer

Platystemon posted:

Why would the Centers for Disease Control fake data?

Yeah, I really doubt they'd fake data.

However, this is a pretty big discrepancy with other sources, including the states they source their data from. For example, in San Mateo county they have the 7 day moving average of cases being almost 20x as high as California reports and in fact they have it higher than that county was at during it's peak according to the state dashboard. It's big enough that I really can't square it at all and it's really confusing, especially considering the source of their data is the state, so if someone was bullshitting numbers, you'd think it would start at the state and be reflected downstream.

Edit: Okay one thing is their "moving average" is not really a moving average. Theirs is really just Cases Per 100k in the last 7 days, not a 7 day average of cases per 100k per day. That's a really weird thing that I wouldn't have expected the CDC to do differently. Even then it's like 2-3x what the state seems to report, but at least it's a lot closer to the ballpark.

wilderthanmild fucked around with this message at 16:26 on Jul 15, 2021

learnincurve
May 15, 2014

Smoosh

Platystemon posted:

Why would the Centers for Disease Control fake data?

People were saying the data was wildly different depending on the source and I was wondering if accidents had happened is all.

We now know a lot of the early AstraZeneca information on the Internet is messed up for a crazy reason - the head of MI5 said yesterday there had been a deliberate Russian disinformation campaign targeting it. (He didn’t say why AZ in particular)

Samuel L. Hacksaw
Mar 26, 2007

Never Stop Posting
Az released in the US first right? Probably election poo poo.

wilderthanmild
Jun 21, 2010

Posting shit




Grimey Drawer

Samuel L. Hacksaw posted:

Az released in the US first right? Probably election poo poo.

I don't think AZ was ever in the US.

sharknado slashfic
Jun 24, 2011

Yeah I don't think we have AZ here.

Samuel L. Hacksaw
Mar 26, 2007

Never Stop Posting
Look at me, I'm dumb and wrong!

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

wilderthanmild posted:

I don't think AZ was ever in the US.

Canadians who were planning to go to New York for a concert were disappointed to find out that if they were fully vaxxed with AZ they would be denied entry because it wasn't approved. I think it could be where the AZ was made that Canada got though.

Purgatory Glory fucked around with this message at 18:37 on Jul 15, 2021

Fur20
Nov 14, 2007

すご▞い!
君は働か░い
フ▙▓ズなんだね!

Galewolf posted:

There Was An Attempt Meme.jpeg

Calling the Olympic Village orgies being ground zero for superspreader event.

i've said it before but you would think that after nearly 50 years of producing animes and video games where a megavirus manifests at the tokyo olympics which causes 95% of the human population to be obliterated and demons to roam the earth, japan would be a liiiiittle less blasé about this

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learnincurve
May 15, 2014

Smoosh
Tentacles start appearing out of the Olympic village to cries of “why did no one predict this!”

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