|
PawParole posted:map of tigray There's a Google Map that follows the situation closer to real-time and which is a bit different from the one you linked (e.g. Raya is shown as largely TPLF control in the one you linked, but not in the other map): https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1ukq3h-fUshA0a0ZDcSI22WHbfC6PnKtX&ll=13.567908083230872%2C39.13320072913409&z=7 So the TPLF have recovered the entire pre-1990 part of Tigray, but whether they will (can) recover the parts they took after the Ethiopian Civil War is a bigger question. The pre-1990 borders of Tigray are basically the same as the area of TPLF control right now. If Abiy / Amhara militia can control actually maintain that, then I wouldn't really see the pullout of Mekele as a "loss" for them, but a strategic withdrawal. E: Here's a good basic article about those regions (Raya and Welkait): https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/28/ethiopia-tigray-war-amhara-abiy-ahmed-expansionism/ Saladman fucked around with this message at 15:49 on Jul 2, 2021 |
# ? Jul 2, 2021 15:45 |
|
|
# ? Jun 13, 2024 06:08 |
|
https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/africa/100000007848345/ethiopia-prisoners-marched-tigray-mekelle.html?playlistId=video/world Thousands of captured Ethiopian government soldiers were marched through Mekelle to prison on Friday, as crowds jeered and applauded. Tigray fighters swiftly defeated the government this week, in a civil war that has killed or displaced nearly two million people in the region. https://twitter.com/SIMON_TE/status...941576189255689 https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/sta...067733731680260
|
# ? Jul 3, 2021 02:46 |
|
https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1412422312394100747 https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1412396283751436288 lol meanwhile from the other side. https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1412363125203030016 https://twitter.com/markc_anderson/...%5Es1_&ref_url= PawParole fucked around with this message at 19:38 on Jul 6, 2021 |
# ? Jul 6, 2021 19:34 |
|
Along those lines, the NYT interviewed the leader of Tigray this weekend, and while he said they're not necessarily going to push the Eritreans past the border, he also didn't rule it out: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/03/world/africa/tigray-leader-interview-ethiopia.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
|
# ? Jul 6, 2021 23:17 |
|
https://twitter.com/AFPAfrica/status/1414528820493832194?s=19 Specifically KZN (especially Pietermaritzburg) and Gauteng. We still have some goons in Jozi don't we? Everything definitely points to the riots being Zuma sentence related but always interested to hear from anyone in the thick of it
|
# ? Jul 12, 2021 13:39 |
|
kustomkarkommando posted:https://twitter.com/AFPAfrica/status/1414528820493832194?s=19 My parents are in Pietermaritzburg. They're pretty stressed. And it does seem to be Zuma related, but it also sounds like poorer people have been suffering badly under COVID, so it's probably more of a match to a tinder box situation.
|
# ? Jul 12, 2021 17:15 |
|
They've also just looted a blood bank, petrol bombed hospitals and water tankers and are firing automatic rifles at ambulances. There is speculation that a large part of the unrest (certainly the more destructive parts) are being instigated by factions within the ANC who want Ramaphosa to fail and see somebody in power who will pardon Zuma. Zuma is our Zulu Trump. He's the reason a lot of these people are unemployed to begin with.
|
# ? Jul 12, 2021 22:59 |
|
KinkyJohn posted:Zuma is our Zulu Trump.
|
# ? Jul 12, 2021 23:02 |
|
KinkyJohn posted:They've also just looted a blood bank, petrol bombed hospitals and water tankers and are firing automatic rifles at ambulances. It rings true to me (as just some guy in North America, but I did at least work in SA for a few months) that parts of the ANC are instigating this. Either to make Ramaphosa look bad or to somehow apply pressure to get Zuma off (no idea if this is possible) or as a sort of lesson: this is what happens when you convict someone of corruption, better not do it to anyone else.
|
# ? Jul 13, 2021 00:16 |
|
I liked this NYT story about the turnaround in the Tigray war. Apparently they're going to push for a referendum to secede. It's hard to see this going any other way, at this point. And Abiy's party was just reelected to nearly every seat in parliament. Not too surprising, considering places like Tigray were denied the vote.
|
# ? Jul 13, 2021 01:02 |
|
Fuschia tude posted:I liked this NYT story about the turnaround in the Tigray war. Apparently they're going to push for a referendum to secede. It's hard to see this going any other way, at this point.
|
# ? Jul 13, 2021 01:37 |
|
KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:I like the article too but it would be nice to see them be a liiiiittle more critical of the TDF considering they've also, yknow, been accused of atrocities "many [Tigrayans were] distrustful of a governing Tigrayan party [i.e. the TDF / TPLF] seen as tired, authoritarian and corrupt." Also if the TPLF does push into Wolkait, we have certainly not seen the last of the atrocities committed of the war. The TPLF did recapture Raya, but from what I understand (and I could well be wrong), Wolkait was the much more significant tinderbox / source of longstanding animosity. OTOH Tigray would have zero chance of being an independent country without retaking Wolkait, since otherwise it would border only Ethiopia (Afar and Amhara regions) and Eritrea. I was also surprised they recaptured Raya so fast though - just this past week, and only two weeks after they recaptured the main Tigrayan heartland.
|
# ? Jul 13, 2021 09:13 |
|
Count Roland posted:It rings true to me (as just some guy in North America, but I did at least work in SA for a few months) that parts of the ANC are instigating this. Either to make Ramaphosa look bad or to somehow apply pressure to get Zuma off (no idea if this is possible) or as a sort of lesson: this is what happens when you convict someone of corruption, better not do it to anyone else. Well yeah, Zuma supporters. And it's sounding like the police are going to be rounding up instigators (at least those who were publicly instigating on social media). But at this stage, it's not even a protest any more. Nobody's waving around pro-Zuma placards. It's just a whole lot of destitute people looting looting retail outlets of everything not nailed to the floor. In Pietermaritzburg, it sounds like it's impossible to buy food right now. Every store has either been looted, or is closed in anticipation of being looted. The freeways are also basically shut down, so it's not clear when there will be supply to stores either. My parents are holed up in their house and putting water in jerry cans in case the water infrastructure gets targeted next.
|
# ? Jul 13, 2021 22:14 |
|
Have living standards improved somewhat country-wide since Apartheid ended?
|
# ? Jul 13, 2021 22:19 |
|
Tigrayans captured Raya in the south. They are now moving to Western Tigray or what Amharas called Wolkayit. https://mobile.twitter.com/ThomasVL...890648835174412 they are literally at the gates of Gonder, every able man and women is being called up to arms https://mobile.twitter.com/AwasaGua...870784015806468 https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelt...880894217859073 Alamata has fallen, and there are rumors of the tigrayan army doing some ethnic cleansing there. keep in mind that if the MaiTsebri and AdiRemets defence lines are broken, the rest of Wolqait and Tsegede will be a downhill walk. there’s also the fact that the Debaq-Dabat road exposes Gondar to direct attacks. Saladman posted:"many [Tigrayans were] distrustful of a governing Tigrayan party [i.e. the TDF / TPLF] seen as tired, authoritarian and corrupt." yeah, hearing rumors of ethnic cleansing, around 50 people so far
|
# ? Jul 14, 2021 01:18 |
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/05/26/statement-by-president-joe-biden-on-the-crisis-in-ethiopia/ ???
|
|
# ? Jul 14, 2021 01:24 |
|
Discendo Vox posted:https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/05/26/statement-by-president-joe-biden-on-the-crisis-in-ethiopia/ I’m literally reposting the mobilization orders, go fly to Ethiopia and take it up with them. edit: are you baffled by the existence of territorial disputes? Wolkait/Western Tigray is disputed so obviously an Amhara would view Biden’s demand of withdrawal as an authorization of invasion. PawParole fucked around with this message at 01:30 on Jul 14, 2021 |
# ? Jul 14, 2021 01:27 |
It’s a pretty significant distinction, yeah.
|
|
# ? Jul 14, 2021 01:37 |
|
Discendo Vox posted:It’s a pretty significant distinction, yeah. from the point of view of the council issuing the mobilization order, Wolkait is an integral part of Amhara. From Joe Biden’s view ( and the TPLF), it’s part of Tigray, because the demand in the spox is for status quo ante-bellum.
|
# ? Jul 14, 2021 01:43 |
|
PawParole posted:Wolkayit Of course, this is a Tigrinya/Amharic word, so the transliterations are all over the map. The main spelling in Ethiopic script seems to be ወልቃይት, which I would transliterate as "Welqayt", the "q" representing an ejective plosive "k" sound that doesn't exist in most dialects of English.
|
# ? Jul 14, 2021 01:46 |
|
PawParole posted:Tigrayans captured Raya in the south. They are now moving to Western Tigray or what Amharas called Wolkayit. They are not literally at the gates of Gondar ( https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1ukq3h-fUshA0a0ZDcSI22WHbfC6PnKtX&ll=13.320008243990774%2C37.93708413606692&z=9 ), they're 200 extremely difficult km from there. Towards the approach to Gondar that the TPLF controls currently, there is a 2000m tall and 80km wide cliff face just north of Debark that puts the Ice Wall in Game of Thrones to shame - the north face of the Simien mountains. There is one gravel road of mediocre quality and a very small number of very difficult climbs that would be impossible to do with equipment. There is an easier way to Gondar from Tigray via Wolkait, but so far the TPLF doesn't control the approach at all, and there might be more resistance in that region anyway since it's ethnically majority Amhara. The Rayans are majority in Raya too (AFAIK) but they're a far smaller numerically/financially weak ethnic group and Raya is small. I also kind of doubt the TPLF will advance past prior borders of Tigray, except maybe very slightly to get to more defensible positions, but maybe the ENDF really collapsed to such a point that they can push back beyond the previous state borders. If they can cross the Simien range and take Debark (let alone Gondar), then Abiy is beyond incompetent and there's no way he doesn't get couped.
|
# ? Jul 14, 2021 09:14 |
|
Meanwhile in the DRC:quote:KINSHASA (Reuters) -Former Congolese Prime Minister Matata Ponyo Mapon has been freed from house arrest after he agreed to make himself available to answer questions about the alleged misappropriation of government funds, his lawyer said.
|
# ? Jul 15, 2021 17:32 |
|
Hey PawParole thanks for making these informative posts.
|
# ? Jul 15, 2021 18:24 |
|
https://twitter.com/addisstandard/s...971371733073983 https://twitter.com/MickeyRaya/stat...%5Es1_&ref_url= https://twitter.com/AwasaGuardian/s...%5Es1_&ref_url= Abiy doesn't trust the Oromia police to not join the OLA eventually, so he kills two birds with 1 stone- send any potential OLA members/sympathizers among the police of oromia to go fight his other enemies, the tigrayans.
|
# ? Jul 15, 2021 22:52 |
|
That tweet is some serious scaremongering. There's no chance that TPLF are going to invade Afar. There's nothing for them to capture and it wouldn't open up any trade routes for them, unless they captured all the way to Djibouti which would be pretty outlandish and would require a complete collapse of the ENDF, considering the lack of defensible terrain and a hostile local population and Afar is huge and would require long-distance resupply routes over terrible non-roads with a complete lack of cover of any kind. Wolkait might be a disaster though as the TPLF might well invade since at this point it seems kind of existential for them to have a border with Sudan. Declaring Tigrayan independence if they're connected to Afar, Ethiopia, and Amhara is almost as impractical as the half-eaten corpse of the "A and B" territory of the West Bank becoming an independent country.
|
# ? Jul 16, 2021 11:07 |
|
Saladman posted:That tweet is some serious scaremongering. There's no chance that TPLF are going to invade Afar. There's nothing for them to capture and it wouldn't open up any trade routes for them, unless they captured all the way to Djibouti which would be pretty outlandish and would require a complete collapse of the ENDF, considering the lack of defensible terrain and a hostile local population and Afar is huge and would require long-distance resupply routes over terrible non-roads with a complete lack of cover of any kind. there’s rumors that they aim to cut the railroad and that most of the federal army has been destroyed. If they are depending on special forces and militias from other states so heavily, the destruction of entire divisions of the Ethiopian army is indeed true. https://out.reddit.com/t3_olawfv?ur...J&app_name=mweb Addis Standard got closed down by the government, so that cuts down on the sources I can use. PawParole fucked around with this message at 13:43 on Jul 16, 2021 |
# ? Jul 16, 2021 13:18 |
|
PawParole posted:there’s rumors that they aim to cut the railroad and that most of the federal army has been destroyed. If they are depending on special forces and militias from other states so heavily, the destruction of entire divisions of the Ethiopian army is indeed true. That sounds kind of outlandish imho; if the TNDF gets anywhere even remotely close to cutting the Addis-Djibouti railway, then the ENDF has been entirely destroyed and the war is over, no need to destroy the railway by that point. The railway only runs through the very, very southern tip of Afar in a short ~20km stretch at Awash town. Right now the TNDF are still like 500 km away from it so they'd have to not only take 100% of Afar, but also significant parts of the Somali and Amhara regions. Right now the TNDF is still like 50 km north of Weldiya. There are no roads connecting the northern part of Afar (e.g. Berhale, connected by paved road to Mekele) to the southern part (e.g. Semre, connected by road to Weldiya). Yeah you could drive through the rocky desert at 10 kph, but there's no cover, very long and good visibility, and they'd be in an area with a sparsely populated area but with heavily armed and antagonistic locals, so any convoy could be easily disabled by guerrillas or destroyed by drones.
|
# ? Jul 16, 2021 13:48 |
|
Saladman posted:That sounds kind of outlandish imho; if the TNDF gets anywhere even remotely close to cutting the Addis-Djibouti railway, then the ENDF has been entirely destroyed and the war is over, no need to destroy the railway by that point. The railway only runs through the very, very southern tip of Afar in a short ~20km stretch at Awash town. Right now the TNDF are still like 500 km away from it so they'd have to not only take 100% of Afar, but also significant parts of the Somali and Amhara regions. Why do you assume it’ll be hostile? The Afar region isn’t controlled by the federal government and is the most maverick region, it might switch sides and decide that Tigray would be better for them as allies. there’s also a road that was cut during the Somali afar clash and that caused a shortage of gasoline in Addis Ababa. If they can destroy or take that road then the ENDF won’t be able to fuel its tanks
|
# ? Jul 16, 2021 15:27 |
|
PawParole posted:Why do you assume it’ll be hostile? The Afar region isn’t controlled by the federal government and is the most maverick region, it might switch sides and decide that Tigray would be better for them as allies. The main paved road also runs pretty far S through Afar territory basically it is the same as the Awash river which is drawn, so it's also not the part near Tigray. The railroad is way beyond the truck road, so if the TPLF gets close to the Djibouti railroad then the ENDF has already collapsed before then. I assume it'll be hostile based on the tweet from Mickey Tigray ("About 200 buses caring thousands of Militias and special forces from Oromia are the Afar region heading to join Abiy Ahmed’s war on Tigray.") It could be fake/misleading information, but given that it is a pro-Tigrayan source, it probably would not fake that someone that could be their friend would be supplying troops against them. The AwasaGuardian tweet gives a similar impression ("Sidama people will not let TPLF continue atrocities against Wolkait and Afar people"). Not to mention that I think every ethnic group in Ethiopia dislikes or at best is ambivalent about the Tigrayans since they were the previous dominant ethnic group of the country. Saladman fucked around with this message at 17:43 on Jul 16, 2021 |
# ? Jul 16, 2021 17:38 |
|
hearing rumors that tigrayan army has invaded the Afar region. https://twitter.com/oladmohamed/status/1416239592911613959 https://twitter.com/ibnalimajlis/status/1415671262668464136 https://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/...ghtmode%3Dfalse quote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ZemenuYA/status/1416749067808514051 first tweet was incorrect. PawParole fucked around with this message at 17:59 on Jul 18, 2021 |
# ? Jul 18, 2021 17:39 |
|
https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1417482631655133184 https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1417106639119921157
|
# ? Jul 20, 2021 15:36 |
|
ah, the tones of reconciliation and peace
|
# ? Jul 20, 2021 21:27 |
|
That translation of Abiy's statement is kinda janky. This one seems more comprehensible: "tghat posted:The enemy we are facing is an enemy which is the cancer of Ethiopia. The junta is probably the only group in history that used its political power to disintegrate its own country. As the saying goes “a familiar devil is not easily dislodged”, so the junta will attempt to cling on desperately.
|
# ? Jul 21, 2021 00:23 |
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/Ethiopia/c...utm_term=oo3p3a the l's keep coming Eastern Command Division ENDF annihilated by TDF in Afar region. Awoy Yassin Sayid captured. Eastern Division controls harar,Afar,DDS. PawParole fucked around with this message at 05:10 on Jul 21, 2021 |
# ? Jul 21, 2021 05:06 |
|
Is Abiy losing the war now?
|
# ? Jul 21, 2021 06:45 |
|
PawParole posted:https://www.reddit.com/r/Ethiopia/c...utm_term=oo3p3a I'm not seeing that yet anywhere else (Google searches, Ethiopia Map) and that Reddit post doesn't actually link to anything and TinEye finds no matches. Can you link something? The Ethiopia Map that has been so accurate so far doesn't show anything updated in the last 7-10 days.
|
# ? Jul 21, 2021 09:17 |
|
https://twitter.com/Quen10Tarantino...%5Es1_&ref_url=
|
# ? Jul 22, 2021 09:17 |
|
https://twitter.com/Fahmii_Ab/status/1417895192695345162 sad
|
# ? Jul 22, 2021 19:33 |
|
are the local militias in Afar staying out of the fight or were they part of the government force that got wiped out? basically the only thing I've ever heard about them is that they're militarily scary so it seems weird if they just got annihilated or are letting their area get raided unopposed.
|
# ? Jul 22, 2021 19:46 |
|
|
# ? Jun 13, 2024 06:08 |
|
Zedhe Khoja posted:are the local militias in Afar staying out of the fight or were they part of the government force that got wiped out? basically the only thing I've ever heard about them is that they're militarily scary so it seems weird if they just got annihilated or are letting their area get raided unopposed. there's like 1 or 2 million afar in total and they repeatedly lose to a subclan of their bigger cousins, I wouldn't call that scary. they don't do the testicle necklace thing anymore I think.
|
# ? Jul 23, 2021 06:13 |