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VostokProgram posted:But pops don't speculate, or do any kind of forecasting at all for that matter. They just buy what they need at that moment. I think the only types of economic shock we see will come from shortages (not enough iron -> literally everything suffers), and sudden changes in pop fixation (we no longer want tea, we only want coffee -> massive crash for tea exporters and boom for coffee exporters) Low Market Confidence: Fewer and more diversified investments, reduced prestige growth (if that is still a thing), unhappy rich people High Market Confidence: More investments chasing the most profitable industry (of either a year or two ago, or with construction time), increased prestige growth, happy rich people Undisturbed, Market Confidence always grows steadily towards 100, but drops in the wealth of the capital owning class reduces it. The reduction is somewhat randomized though still dependent on the drop in wealth, and the reduction is multiplied massively if it happens when Market Confidence > 90. The lower the Market Confidence, the higher the required profitability of a factor needs to be for the owner to not just shut it down for fear of wasting money on products no one will buy within a week. The above should result in something of a cycle of booms and busts, which random chance would occasionally turn into international events if a bust in one sends enough ripples into other markets that they too bust. The volatility of the system would be controlled by the price signal delay, and the factor for drops in Market Confidence, allowing Paradox to tune the system until it is somewhat reasonable. Obviously current Market Confidence would be shown on a bar with a bear on the left and a bull on the right, with graphs underneath tracking the underlying numbers and historical trend.
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Aug 6, 2021 07:18
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VostokProgram posted:But pops don't speculate, or do any kind of forecasting at all for that matter. They just buy what they need at that moment. I think the only types of economic shock we see will come from shortages (not enough iron -> literally everything suffers), and sudden changes in pop fixation (we no longer want tea, we only want coffee -> massive crash for tea exporters and boom for coffee exporters) Keep in mind that most people who were ruined by the Great Depression lost their money because their bank failed and not because they put too much money in Ford stock or whatever. Along those lines, I wonder if there's any way to integrate a simulation of banking and finance in a way that doesn't totally turn off most players. Just from my basic knowledge of US history I know that the issues of the national bank and monetary policy were probably the #2 political issue during the period of Vicky III and very directly contributed to several financial panics. It might be as simple as having some abstract monetary policy that is determined by the year and whichever political party is in power, with some X% chance of causing a financial panic every month, although that might be too abstract of a system.
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Aug 6, 2021 09:27
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Raenir Salazar posted:Have you thought about taking the train less? No
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Aug 6, 2021 12:31
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The 19th century also has a ton of economic depressions not caused by the stock market. Like all the 1848 shenanigans. From mass famine in Ireland to Russia invading Hungary. Or the rather less known and more bourgeois vinyard blight of the 1850s. Which was both caused by aphids from North America and led to a lot of modern french vineyards replacing their grapes with north american varietals, which, lol. Never, ever mention this to a vinter.
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Aug 6, 2021 13:27
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dead gay comedy forums posted:fwiw this is basically one of the proposed solutions to the problem of domestic consumer goods in centralized planning: the price signal mechanism. Shift "willing to buy" to "how many people need this" and is a pretty clever model demonstration As we learned from V2 - the only thing that can fix capitalism is communism.
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Aug 6, 2021 14:25
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A Buttery Pastry posted:It seems like if you want market-driven volatility in the market, then the investment AI should be working with an old price signal, if factories are built instantly the moment the resources required have been accumulated, or the construction of new factories should take long enough that the AI has time to build up a bubble. I think the core of a depression system would be something that changes how investments are being made and at what rate within a market. Something like: gently caress, imagine instead of a bar it's just the Stockmarket graph!
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Aug 6, 2021 15:36
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sum posted:Along those lines, I wonder if there's any way to integrate a simulation of banking and finance in a way that doesn't totally turn off most players. Just from my basic knowledge of US history I know that the issues of the national bank and monetary policy were probably the #2 political issue during the period of Vicky III and very directly contributed to several financial panics. It might be as simple as having some abstract monetary policy that is determined by the year and whichever political party is in power, with some X% chance of causing a financial panic every month, although that might be too abstract of a system. Yeah this seems like a tricky but necessary thing to do. The US (and probably the other large economies too) shot themselves in the foot again and again with awful monetary policy decisions. The existence of those stupid choices, and political classes that insist on you making them, should absolutely be a thing.
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Aug 6, 2021 15:55
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Yes, it's like a lava lamp.
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given how V3 economics look so far, crisis theory mechanisms should be pretty much their own thing apart from mainstream economics. One of the major factors of crisis theory is the considerations of time for all the effects to compound together; I am not one hell of a code jockey by any means, but I think I have been doing enough code touching to imagine how much loving processing would be necessary to properly do in the way it is in the econ manuals so every tick would require to factor for time in order to realize speculation, which would require floating prices to work adequately, as well as requiring the presence of stockpiles, to then create appraisal and evaluation by agents... it is a clusterfuck going by that route. having a general economy with basic prices, controlled price signal mechanisms with immediate transactions and no global monetary supply should mean that crises are going to be far more "grounded", much closer to the problems of demand (which, in terms of actual consequences, is the far more realistic situation that happens regardless of the causes: people can't attend their material demands whether the cause is oil shortage or lehmann bros failing)
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Aug 6, 2021 16:17
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its integrating a diff eq w/o analytic soln every game w continuous movement (notably not includin any paradox game except stellaris lol) also integrates a diff eq. there are analytic solns for those games but for various reasons peeps should never use em testing such a thing entails fuckin w the params and ensuring that the deranged behaviors derange right bob dobbs is dead fucked around with this message at 16:27 on Aug 6, 2021 |
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Aug 6, 2021 16:25
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honestly i'd be okay with just a "business confidence" number
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Aug 6, 2021 17:05
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StashAugustine posted:honestly i'd be okay with just a "business confidence" number that just means the diffeq is of one variable lol
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Aug 6, 2021 17:12
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sum posted:Keep in mind that most people who were ruined by the Great Depression lost their money because their bank failed and not because they put too much money in Ford stock or whatever. Yes, but the bank failures were after the market crash. But I think we agree on the overall point: we will probably not see panics emerge in the v3 economy as described so far. It would require a deeper simulation into finance, investment, and speculation. And that may not even be desirable if it costs too many CPU cycles each tick. quote:It might be as simple as having some abstract monetary policy that is determined by the year and whichever political party is in power, with some X% chance of causing a financial panic every month, although that might be too abstract of a system. I'm not a fan of this system, first because just having a ticking chance of random catastrophic bad event feels like it would be unfun, and second because as described so far it is hard to describe what a panic in v3 even looks like. Since pops don't have any investment behavior, you would have to apply an arbitrary penalty to some other economic activity. All prices deflated? Malus to factory throughput? Capitalists don't put any money in the building pool? It feels like it would be hacky and not fun. Yaoi Gagarin fucked around with this message at 19:18 on Aug 6, 2021 |
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Aug 6, 2021 19:10
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VostokProgram posted:Yes, but the bank failures were after the market crash. But I think we agree on the overall point: we will probably not see panics emerge in the v3 economy as described so far. It would require a deeper simulation into finance, investment, and speculation. And that may not even be desirable if it costs too many CPU cycles each tick. yeah and it doesn't translate into "fun gameplay" just because, which is the most important part. Even if it is prepared in a game-proper way, I think it would always come back to doing some pseudo-econometrics, which means a whole loving lot of differential equations like bob dobbs is dead said laissez-faire purists may turn their nose but having a global economy that works as-if by planning, but having profit/investment be considered as a factor from the buy/sell orders (which are processed through the director mechanism), should allow for an analogous effect of having a financial market anyway in terms of results, even without in-depth financial dynamics. yeah capitalists here don't trade stocks nor speculate but in the end they earn money if business is good and after all financial capitalism is the ever-increasing abstraction of the real, material, productive economy anyway. The Panic of 1873 has a lot said about money supply being the big thing, but the United States post-Civil War railroad had immense amounts of bad investments. Too many of those were impractical, expensive or even outright not viable, yet the industry was being driven to accommodate that expansion; if you think that the objective was to produce expensive railroad stock instead of building railroads, it should help to understand the problem here this could happen in a game like v3 if capitalists want to build railroads because they are superprofitable, but as they try to move more and more from their investment pool into railroads and there is no supply to make them viable, the more and more they lose money and all associated businesses under them can't make up for the loss, and bam - there's your systemic failure
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Aug 6, 2021 19:46
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i agree with a lot of what's been said about how panics would be difficult to model, but i really think they'd add a lot of dynamism and interest to the game if modeled in a way where your country can be prevented from completely imploding with good management/ a robust and diverse economy. i feel like playing a smaller nation with a less diverse economy that doesn't interact much with the outside world would be enriched by just having an existential crisis from the great powers loving around now and then, even if it might be frustrating/ set you back. watching ai nations crumble into bankruptcy would also fill me with schadenfreude.
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Aug 9, 2021 02:26
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https://twitter.com/PDXVictoria/status/1424732204463104004?s=19
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Aug 9, 2021 15:28
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does this mean we're getting a dev diary about straits
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Aug 9, 2021 16:56
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Cease to Hope posted:does this mean we're getting a dev diary about straits Just one?
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Aug 9, 2021 23:45
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A diary for every strait With follow up
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Aug 9, 2021 23:56
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Pops inhabiting Oahu are now 3% more likely to lose size due to the Molokai Express.
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Aug 10, 2021 01:40
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Pops inhabiting Oahu are now 3% more likely to lose size due to the Molokai Express.
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Aug 10, 2021 01:43
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Did we find out if the camera uses WASD controls or are they still weird hotkeys no one uses?
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Aug 10, 2021 03:24
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Grevlek posted:Did we find out if the camera uses WASD controls or are they still weird hotkeys no one uses? I use them 
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Aug 10, 2021 03:51
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Grevlek posted:Did we find out if the camera uses WASD controls or are they still weird hotkeys no one uses? yikes! posted:I use them hjkl or nothin'
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Aug 10, 2021 04:46
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"weird hotkeys" like the arrow keys????
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Aug 10, 2021 04:54
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idhrendur posted:hjkl or nothin' Placing both hands on my keyboard to play Victoria 3
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Aug 10, 2021 05:42
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DrSunshine posted:As we learned from V2 - the only thing that can fix capitalism is communism. It's going to be a loving trip waiting for the good guys in the mid-60s only to realize that I won't have to wait for the good guys to spawn before being the change I want to see in the world. Magissima posted:Placing both hands on my keyboard to play Victoria 3 the mouse is a bourgeois institution.
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Aug 10, 2021 06:02
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It's fine to have hotkeys but UI is pretty standardized. It's frustrating to have it in Stellaris and not HoI4. I played hoi2 when it was released, I love paradox, but don't make me put my left hand on the arrow keys plz.
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Aug 10, 2021 06:06
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Do you not know about holding middle mouse to pan or just not like it? I do that even with wasd controls
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Aug 10, 2021 06:09
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yikes! posted:Do you not know about holding middle mouse to pan or just not like it? I do that even with wasd controls I'm not a big fan of it personally. I usually have a push to talk button queued to that. I get there are alternatives, and I also have fond memories of Paradox Games being obscure and weird, thus making me a better gamer than other people. But like, just standardize the UI across your games plz.
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Aug 10, 2021 18:34
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W-wait, you guys don't just mouse to the edge of the screen??? 
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Aug 10, 2021 18:38
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DrSunshine posted:W-wait, you guys don't just mouse to the edge of the screen??? I do that, but I am reliably informed that this makes me a filthy barbarian rolling around in my own poo poo and that edge scrolling makes the game completely unplayable 
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Aug 10, 2021 18:40
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sM57wXqlK1E new dev diary summary video, some new images and tidbits in there (Images here: https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/threads/victoria-3-monthly-update-2-august.1485487/ )  🍆 Poor Laws Takanago fucked around with this message at 19:13 on Aug 10, 2021 |
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Aug 10, 2021 19:10
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Takanago posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sM57wXqlK1E Ofaloaf!!!
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Aug 10, 2021 20:31
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Before it trickles down, wealth is stored in the balls.
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Aug 10, 2021 20:35
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Grevlek posted:I'm not a big fan of it personally. I usually have a push to talk button queued to that. Not quite sure what you're accusing me of here, but you shouldn't get weird about people liking different control schemes imo
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Aug 10, 2021 20:39
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yikes! posted:Not quite sure what you're accusing me of here, but you shouldn't get weird about people liking different control schemes imo Wtf is weird about that or accusing you of anything?
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Aug 10, 2021 20:46
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Wtf is weird about that or accusing you of anything? the 2nd line?
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Aug 10, 2021 20:50
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lol that was more about me. I remember telling people about Paradox games, and being like, 'yeah i mean i guess there is a lot going on Civ 4, but wait till you play EU2' and the difficult UI being a badge of honor. Similarly, I can play Dwarf Fortress with my eyes closed, because I memorized the Byzantine pattern of button presses to do what I want. I'm getting old. Weird old UIs and legacy button presses aren't good prima facie. Paradox has taken many steps to 'mainstream' their games, and I think WASD map controls are a part of that. Last thing, moving the mouse to the edge generally works, unless you have 2 monitors. In which case, your cursor goes off the screen, and your map scrolls that direction until it gets back on. You have accurate control of 3 directions, not 4. Paradox released 2 grand strategy games in 2016, one of them has WASD controls, one does not. The one that does not, does not allow me to adjust what the key inputs do, and only the 'W' is assigned to anything. Y'alls mileage may vary. I don't like putting my left hand on the arrow keys. After 20+ years of doing it, it's hurting my wrist.
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Aug 10, 2021 21:07
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I usually go with 'zoom out then zoom to mouse' whenever possible myself
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Aug 10, 2021 21:13
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Grevlek posted:lol that was more about me. I remember telling people about Paradox games, and being like, 'yeah i mean i guess there is a lot going on Civ 4, but wait till you play EU2' and the difficult UI being a badge of honor. Ahh, ok. CK3 has WASD controls and uses E to switch to the main map mode. I think it works well and assume/hope that's how they'll do it in vicky3
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Aug 10, 2021 21:16
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