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omnatigray.org is a very slick website. Demands for Biden-Harris, twitter campaigns, a spot to "report disinformation", a call to stop the genocide in Tigray, etc.
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Aug 6, 2021 18:02
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Count Roland posted:omnatigray.org is a very slick website. Demands for Biden-Harris, twitter campaigns, a spot to "report disinformation", a call to stop the genocide in Tigray, etc. this is how biafra II would go. things are getting unstable in nigeria and educated, pro-independence igbo absolutely dominate social media
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Aug 6, 2021 19:29
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i say swears online posted:this is how biafra II would go. things are getting unstable in nigeria and educated, pro-independence igbo absolutely dominate social media
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Aug 6, 2021 23:38
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i say swears online posted:this is how biafra II would go. things are getting unstable in nigeria and educated, pro-independence igbo absolutely dominate social media the region Biafra is in has a huge non-igbo population, and Igbos haven't dominated the military/economy of Nigeria for 30 years and stashed up tons of weapons + the leadership of the largest command.
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Aug 7, 2021 01:12
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Grouchio posted:I wonder how hectic (or rather how large to begin with) Nigerian social media is when you have over 200 recognized languages and zero infrastructure. everyone speaks pigin so it works well enough. a lot of the greatest thread in the history of forums, locked by a moderator after 12,239 pages of heated debate, kind of interactions on facebook pages PawParole posted:the region Biafra is in has a huge non-igbo population, and Igbos haven't dominated the military/economy of Nigeria for 30 years and stashed up tons of weapons + the leadership of the largest command. yeah that's a major difference, the igbo lost their position of dominance in the officer corps after biafra, but they do have a lot more money. it probably doesn't balance out; they'd be at a worse position than last time but would have better international PR. the related ethnic groups like the ijaw have pretty strong support for an independent state but tend to waffle more when it comes to armed conflict from what i've read it's the south-south's 'turn' at president next time but they've been pretty alienating to the yoruba swing vote. i think it's unlikely at the moment that a PDP with an igbo nominee wins the next presidential election even as the APC is managing things very poorly
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Aug 7, 2021 03:48
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...98dc_story.html Amhara Region official says offensive against Tigray forces imminent Tigray forces vow 'warm welcome' in face of new offensive https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...98dc_story.html Plowing season is over. Time for people to die.
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Aug 7, 2021 07:26
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/07/ethiopia-conflict-set-to-escalate-after-tigray-rebels-refuse-to-withdrawquote:
"If you guys don't stop winning, we're going to REALLY get angry with you!"
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Aug 7, 2021 07:59
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Pistol_Pete posted:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/07/ethiopia-conflict-set-to-escalate-after-tigray-rebels-refuse-to-withdraw if it seems like the TPLF could take over, the Ethiopian army will actually fight.
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Aug 7, 2021 08:16
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If the government could easily crush the TPLF whenever they felt like it, you'd think they'd just get on and do it  That whole official statement just screamed weakness to me.
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Aug 7, 2021 08:32
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Pistol_Pete posted:If the government could easily crush the TPLF whenever they felt like it, you'd think they'd just get on and do it it’s complicated, but the Ethiopian army is made up mostly of non-Abyssinian conscripts who are not eager to die to restore (shewan) amharan hegemony, which is why they keep surrendering. If it seems like TPLF might take the capital, they will fight and have higher moral.
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Aug 7, 2021 17:38
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PawParole posted:it’s complicated, but the Ethiopian army is made up mostly of non-Abyssinian conscripts who are not eager to die to restore (shewan) amharan hegemony, which is why they keep surrendering. Wait, Abyssinia is the name of the biblical empire. They're not an ethnic group-- are they?
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Aug 8, 2021 01:02
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Count Roland posted:Wait, Abyssinia is the name of the biblical empire. They're not an ethnic group-- are they? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habesha_peoples The Habesha are those people who are from the North Highland part of Ethiopia, specifically, Amhara, Tigray, Gurage, Silte, and Harari people (don't call the last two habesha though) . They speak Semitic langagues. PawParole fucked around with this message at 06:07 on Aug 8, 2021 |
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Aug 8, 2021 06:03
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https://mobile.twitter.com/OromiaWarUpdate/status/1424100739241107457 Meanwhile, in Ethiopia, the Oromo liberation front is placing the capital, Addis Ababa/Finfinne , under siege.
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Aug 9, 2021 00:31
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PawParole posted:it’s complicated, but the Ethiopian army is made up mostly of non-Abyssinian conscripts who are not eager to die to restore (shewan) amharan hegemony, which is why they keep surrendering. Moral and unit cohesion doesn't work like that. You can't just lose battle after battle until the enemy is at the gates of the capital and then realize, oh no, this serious, we better "really" fight this time.
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Aug 9, 2021 03:28
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PawParole posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/OromiaWarUpdate/status/1424100739241107457 Are they? I have not seen any journalist reporting about Oromo movements. Who is running this twitter account and how do we know their sources are reliable?
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Aug 9, 2021 03:48
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Fuschia tude posted:Are they? I have not seen any journalist reporting about Oromo movements. Who is running this twitter account and how do we know their sources are reliable? Yeah sounds like bullshit, especially with the way the Tweet is phrased it shows its bias immediately, referring to "hundreds of enemies", so it's obviously written from a pro-OLA propaganda point. If the OLA captured there then it means Gondar and Bahir Dar would be all-but cut off from Addis. The two paved roads to Bahir Dar from Addis are the loop going from Dessie -> Weldiya -> Gashena -> Wereta that TPLF captured last week, and the main road is the direct one going NW from Addis to Bahir. The road from Kombolcha to Gindewoin is unpaved, and then the roads are paved from there to Addis either way of that "circle" road between Dejen and Bahir Dar. E: It's also the middle of rainy season in the highlands, and while the Ethiopian highlands are not particularly wet, it's enough precipitation to make taking a bunch of supplies and heavy trucks on a windy dirt-now-mud road through the mountains not especially practical if the paved roads are captured. That would be front page news like Lalibela was if true, not to mention that the Ethiopia War Map doesn't put the OLA anywhere close to Addis nor with any significant territorial possession. The OLA stuff has been going on for years and it largely appears to be imaginary on Twitter combined with some LARPing for the photographs. Maybe that would change if the TPLF actually keeps its momentum but the OLA don't really seem that much more serious than the Proud Boys or whatever, which is to say, they have weapons and people but seemingly not really any direction or force. I don't mean to compare their politics; I have no idea what the OLA wants or anything about its goals or grievances, but this tweet that they put out makes them seem like pretty loving insane ultranationalist assholes: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E8RckEHXEAE86HK?format=jpg&name=medium Saladman fucked around with this message at 11:24 on Aug 9, 2021 |
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Aug 9, 2021 11:13
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Saladman posted:Yeah sounds like bullshit, especially with the way the Tweet is phrased it shows its bias immediately, referring to "hundreds of enemies", so it's obviously written from a pro-OLA propaganda point. There’s been a blackout of media and the internet in the oromia region. the Ethiopia map dude follows this Twitter account, and that map is stupid but they’re probably one of the least ultranationalist “fronts” in Ethiopia right now. It probably has more to do with a mistake than anything else. https://mobile.twitter.com/OromiaWa...178493785157633
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Aug 11, 2021 03:45
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PawParole posted:There’s been a blackout of media and the internet in the oromia region. the Ethiopia map dude follows this Twitter account, and that map is stupid but they’re probably one of the least ultranationalist “fronts” in Ethiopia right now. It probably has more to do with a mistake than anything else. Yeah that Twitter account might not be posting 100% bogus info, but if the Ethio Twitter Map follows it and doesn't highlight the huge capture of the north road from Addis, then I'm going to go with Ethio Twitter. If OLA actually captured that road, and they didn't just jump out of a car and dress up for a quick LARP photo opportunity, then it would be huge news as it would cut Addis off from Gondar and Bahir Dar, which isn't the kind of thing you can black out for very long considering that Gondar, Addis, and Bahir Dar are still open cities that international tourists and reporters can go to right now (and apparently still are, according to TripAdvisor's Ethiopia forum trip reports). Gun ownership is legal in Ethiopia (apparently some restrictions were enacted in early 2020) so these three guys posing in front of a sign with a legal firearm is only as significant as if some Proud Boys posted a similar photo in front of the highway to DC sign. I could be wrong but the photo itself doesn't mean they "captured" it. The TPLF stuff is much more convincing since we already know they're actually on the move, but none of the OLA movements are substantiated.
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Aug 11, 2021 08:24
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https://mobile.twitter.com/thaayantu/status/1425551752120709123?s=21 The lawyer for two arrested opposition candidates has just been found dead in his home. https://www.reuters.com/world/ethiopias-tigray-forces-seek-new-military-alliance-2021-08-11/?utm_source=reddit.com Tigray rebels and Oromia rebels ink a new alliance.
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Aug 12, 2021 08:16
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PawParole posted:https://www.reuters.com/world/ethiopias-tigray-forces-seek-new-military-alliance-2021-08-11/?utm_source=reddit.com This seems not good for the central government.
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Aug 12, 2021 11:26
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Count Roland posted:This seems not good for the central government.
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Aug 12, 2021 14:55
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I'm trying to follow this civil war but I don't understand why the Oromo region is opposed to Abiy? My understanding was that he is an Oromo and that as this conflict was ethically based I had assumed they would have been supporting him, but evidently that's not the case?
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Aug 12, 2021 15:03
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a pipe smoking dog posted:I'm trying to follow this civil war but I don't understand why the Oromo region is opposed to Abiy? My understanding was that he is an Oromo and that as this conflict was ethically based I had assumed they would have been supporting him, but evidently that's not the case? The OLA should not be conflated with Oromos or Oromia, in contrast to the TPLF which likely has the support of like 99.99% of Tigrayans living in Tigray right now. Everyone always wants to grab more of the pie but the OLA doing some stuff doesn't mean it has the support of many/any significant Oromo political leaders.
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Aug 12, 2021 21:43
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Toplowtech posted:Welcome to the new Ethiopian Civil War. Better hope Somaliland and OG Somalia don't enter it too. are you just saying the name of a country in the region or did you confuse the Somali republic w/ the Somali region? Saladman posted:The OLA should not be conflated with Oromos or Oromia, in contrast to the TPLF which likely has the support of like 99.99% of Tigrayans living in Tigray right now. probably 30 percent of Oromos support OLA, concentrated more in the western regions.
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Aug 12, 2021 23:36
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https://mobile.twitter.com/MapEthio...874479205453825 The TPLF has finally managed to take Woldiya after a two week long battle. https://mobile.twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1425882289796493317 also, Ethiopia map updated w/ the rumors i posted yesterday. OLA is in control of all of Kuyu District
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Aug 13, 2021 04:06
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PawParole posted:are you just saying the name of a country in the region or did you confuse the Somali republic w/ the Somali region? Somaliland is a breakaway state from Somalia, gaining independence after the Somali Civil War in 1991. It conforms mostly to the old borders of British Somaliland, and is by many accounts much better run than Somalia proper. It's entirely independent from Somalia, having its own government, but is unrecognized internationally.
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Aug 13, 2021 04:43
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DJ_Mindboggler posted:Somaliland is a breakaway state from Somalia, gaining independence after the Somali Civil War in 1991. It conforms mostly to the old borders of British Somaliland, and is by many accounts much better run than Somalia proper. It's entirely independent from Somalia, having its own government, but is unrecognized internationally. " gaining independence after the Somali Civil War in 1991" "but is unrecognized internationally." .confused face emoji I know what the Somaliland region of Somalia is, I'm literally from there. Somaliland hasn't sought independence since the Riyale administration, and hasn't had an actual election since 2005, so don't Ameri-Splain my own country to me.
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Aug 13, 2021 06:26
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Toplowtech posted:Welcome to the new Ethiopian Civil War. Better hope Somaliland and OG Somalia don't enter it too. this comment was a non-sequitur, since Somalia or any of it's autonomous regions is the least likely to intervene of any of Ethiopia's neighbors.
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Aug 13, 2021 06:28
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PawParole posted:this comment was a non-sequitur, since Somalia or any of it's autonomous regions is the least likely to intervene of any of Ethiopia's neighbors. if ethiopia collapses, what would kenya do? do they have any immediate goals at the moment?
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Aug 13, 2021 06:33
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i say swears online posted:if ethiopia collapses, what would kenya do? do they have any immediate goals at the moment? elections and a referendum are coming up next year, so probably not. forgot Ethiopia bordered kenya for a moment lol
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Aug 13, 2021 06:42
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PawParole posted:
...Somaililand had a Presidential Election in 2017 and a Parliamentary Election in May of this year, together with district elections. This years election was considered perfectly valid by foreign observers, Somaliland is by far the most stabile area of Somalia and they are still formally seeking independence. The only real criticism is the lack of women parliamentarians, but hey, a fair election is still a fair election.
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Aug 13, 2021 07:44
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PawParole posted:probably 30 percent of Oromos support OLA, concentrated more in the western regions. I was looking for something like that and couldn't find even a vague estimate of how much popular support they might have -- since they split from the OLF a couple years ago. Is that just a very rough guess that "probably a fair amount of Oromo actually support OLA and no longer OLF"? I was really under the impression that the continuing OLA was a mix of bandits and hardcore idealogues who can't handle the idea of political compromise. If they actually did take and can hold Kuyu that's huge. Weldiya is a big take for the TPLF, their first large non-Tigrayan city captured. E: I never heard back from the (Ethiopian, Amhara) guy in Lalibela who I had otherwise been occasionally in contact and who, until last week, was posting regularly on Instagram.
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Aug 13, 2021 07:47
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RagnarokZ posted:...Somaililand had a Presidential Election in 2017 and a Parliamentary Election in May of this year, together with district elections. formally as in “going through the forms of”. This election was a step forward, but parliamentary elections were suspended for a over decade and the president still rules by decree, and unionists are soft-disenfranchised. Also, I wouldn’t say “the most stable”. Any part the Ethiopians didn’t invade in 2006 is stable. Saladman posted:I was looking for something like that and couldn't find even a vague estimate of how much popular support they might have -- since they split from the OLF a couple years ago. Is that just a very rough guess that "probably a fair amount of Oromo actually support OLA and no longer OLF"? I was really under the impression that the continuing OLA was a mix of bandits and hardcore idealogues who can't handle the idea of political compromise. If they actually did take and can hold Kuyu that's huge. It’s a rough guess, anything beyond Nekemte has had its internet cut off, so there’s probably something going down in that area.
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Aug 13, 2021 08:12
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PawParole posted:elections and a referendum are coming up next year, so probably not. forgot Ethiopia bordered kenya for a moment lol Most of the border area there might as well be water. Honestly it'd probably increase crossborder trade and movement if it was.
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Aug 13, 2021 14:03
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PawParole posted:" gaining independence after the Somali Civil War in 1991" Sorry, I was answering your question in good faith. I based that off what one of my friends in college would say, his father supposedly worked in the Somaliland gov't and he was a national as well. My apologies if I did not properly capture the true state of things.
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Aug 13, 2021 16:22
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PawParole posted:formally as in “going through the forms of”. This election was a step forward, but parliamentary elections were suspended for a over decade and the president still rules by decree, and unionists are soft-disenfranchised. Nothing personal, but I haven't been able to find anything about the decree stuff and I can't blame them for not wanting to have anything to do with the rest of Somalia. And hey, Eritrea is right over there, ruled by a brutal dictator under endless conscription, frankly, we should applaud the fact Somaliland managed to get an election without serious issues.
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Aug 13, 2021 16:53
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It will be interesting to see what happens when Isaias kicks the bucket. That fucker has set up the entire state to jerk him off Master Chief style. Who knows if he's even bothered to groom a successor.
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Aug 13, 2021 21:43
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https://www.aljazeera.com/program/i...xfQm791K2_14ccM Good article, but Abiy isn’t actually Oromo. https://mobile.twitter.com/abdisaor...%5Es1_&ref_url= BBC Oromo reporting. RagnarokZ posted:Nothing personal, but I haven't been able to find anything about the decree stuff and I can't blame them for not wanting to have anything to do with the rest of Somalia. like all things on earth, it’s complicated, and the population is around a quarter and a half unionist. There was an insurgency until recently in the Awdal and Eastern provinces, so not all northern Somalis want “nothing to do with the south, and most seperatists would be in favor of a loose confederation anyway.
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Aug 14, 2021 06:46
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PawParole posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/abdisaor...%5Es1_&ref_url= loving lol. Credit to the BBC for having a service in a language I hadn't heard of until a few months ago.
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Aug 14, 2021 18:30
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Count Roland posted:loving lol. Credit to the BBC for having a service in a language I hadn't heard of until a few months ago. A huge part of Britain's soft power is the multiple languages the bbc world service broadcasts in, which makes British media the only accessible non government news source in a huge number of regions. No one in the British government understands this so there is a massive fight every 10 years or so when the government tries to cut finding to the world service and mi6 and the diplomatic corps have to explain why this is a terrible idea.
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Aug 14, 2021 18:51
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