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https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/09/ethiopias-problems-arent-postcolonial/ the dumbest man in the world has given his opinion on Ethiopia.
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Jul 23, 2021 06:23
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PawParole posted:https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/09/ethiopias-problems-arent-postcolonial/ There were a few names I thought this could be referring to but I don't think I've ever even heard of this dude before. He advocates the use of "pagan morality" in public policy  Also he equates the Amhara to a formerly ruling majority, but they're not; they too were ruling minorities historically. Oromo are the plurality ethnic group.
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Jul 23, 2021 06:43
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Fuschia tude posted:There were a few names I thought this could be referring to but I don't think I've ever even heard of this dude before. He advocates the use of "pagan morality" in public policy the empire was run by Amhara and Haile Selassie was an Amhara, The Oromo's were reduced to serfs or slaves after Menilik conquered them, that's why Oromo nationalists call Amhara "Neftegna" PawParole fucked around with this message at 16:40 on Jul 23, 2021 |
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Jul 23, 2021 16:38
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PawParole posted:the empire was run by Amhara and Haile Selassie was an Amhara, The Oromo's were reduced to serfs or slaves after Menilik conquered them, that's why Oromo nationalists call Amhara "Neftegna" Right, and then after the Tigrayan-led rebellion overthrew the Derg they became the dominant power in politics until Abiy. But neither constituted the majority, at least after Menelik's expansion; that was always the Oromo.
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Jul 24, 2021 04:51
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Fuschia tude posted:Right, and then after the Tigrayan-led rebellion overthrew the Derg they became the dominant power in politics until Abiy. But neither constituted the majority, at least after Menelik's expansion; that was always the Oromo. i misread your post
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Jul 24, 2021 06:12
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Meanwhile, Mozambique has been battling an insurgensy in the northern part of the country. The insurgents are ostensibly islamist and identify as ISIL affiliates, though their religious motivations are questionable. Their brutality unfortunately isn't. It seems the violence has been prompted by dissatisfaction with the poor economic conditions in the northern Cabo Delgado province. The poverty of the Northern corner is even more egregious given the natural gas concessions given to Total by the government in Maputo. This discontent has prepared the field for radical preachers, some who seem to originate in Tanzania. The Southern African Development Community and Rwanda are now deploying troops to aid the Mozambican government regain control.
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Jul 24, 2021 09:32
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Grouchio posted:Is Abiy losing the war now? There are large segments of the country who have no interest whatsoever in fighting for him, but he also has a substantial support base which is not really under threat. TPLF has so far fought on their own territory, or against those who don't give a poo poo and mostly just don't want to die in this war. Going forwards, I would predict that neither side can successfully attack the other in their areas of strength. What matters now is what resources the sides can secure for the long haul. TPLF appears to be pushing into Afar to secure the border crossings into Djibouti. These matter because they are the main trade artery of the country, and TPLF desperately need a way to import food. The central government understands this. In the near future the fighting that matters will likely be between surprisingly small forces, very far from the centers of gravity of either side. If TPLF doesn't succeed, the rebellion probably fizzles out as a massive famine kills them. If they do succeed, they can probably use their position to lean on the government for concessions.
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Jul 24, 2021 12:57
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What does LP stand for here?
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Jul 26, 2021 19:31
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Count Roland posted:What does LP stand for here? From what I quickly googled it is Liyu Police, which is seemingly a regional counter terrorist/special forces.
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Jul 26, 2021 20:27
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https://twitter.com/MoradNews/statu...%5Es1_&ref_url=Count Roland posted:What does LP stand for here? state paramilitary forces
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Jul 26, 2021 21:13
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https://twitter.com/oladmohamed/sta...469606289281032 https://twitter.com/sk_stylez92/sta...682025095630848 lol Abiy managed to piss off all the regions now.
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Jul 27, 2021 06:46
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The western world loves New African President, young and much different than the last one! *5 seconds later* We regret to inform you the president is a tyrant
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Jul 27, 2021 07:29
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KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:The western world loves New African President, young and much different than the last one! *5 seconds later* We regret to inform you the president is a tyrant The last one didn't seem too bad, stepped down as soon as ethnic tensions and protests began to rise. Of course that then led to *gestures vaguely* all this
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Jul 27, 2021 07:36
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Fuschia tude posted:The last one didn't seem too bad, stepped down as soon as ethnic tensions and protests began to rise. Of course that then led to *gestures vaguely* all this dude was quite clearly a TPLF stooge and was forced out by protests becuase the country was on the verge of collapse. Don't romanticize the Junta, even if Abiy is bad. PP is literally recruiting child soldiers. This will not end well. https://addisstandard.com/news-anal...s-conscription/ https://twitter.com/GebrekirstosG/status/1419990304350949376 https://twitter.com/markc_anderson/status/1420031375168712722 https://twitter.com/GebrekirstosG/status/1419948693407555585/photo/1 https://twitter.com/MoradNews/status/1420030463192752129
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Jul 28, 2021 07:25
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What's the deal with Afar? They're attacking neighbouring groups, but unrelated to the original war involving Tigray? Or is it actually part of the same conflict? I cannot yet keep these groups separate in my head.
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Jul 28, 2021 10:53
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Count Roland posted:What's the deal with Afar? They're attacking neighbouring groups, but unrelated to the original war involving Tigray? Or is it actually part of the same conflict? I cannot yet keep these groups separate in my head. they've always had a feud with issa somalis in djibouti and ethiopia, and they hold that all the trans-awash is the border between them and Somalis. usually, they kept the feud to a few light skirmishes, but this is insane. walking into a town while streaming it live and executing people is insane! the somalis in ethiopia alone outnumber them 10-1 and this is front page news from djibouti to Garrisa. I think Abiy or TPLF might be behind this but im not sure. cagjar is in trouble imho.
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Jul 28, 2021 13:29
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tldr: Cagjar sent troops to aid Gonder, and the Afars are taking advantage of the situation of ethnically cleansing Somalis in the areas that the railway goes through to Djibouti, as Abiy won’t go against afar so that they wouldn’t align themselves with TDF and disrupt the railway link to Djibouti, but Somalis have protested and disrupted the railway line 
PawParole fucked around with this message at 13:40 on Jul 28, 2021 |
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Jul 28, 2021 13:33
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So Somalis blockaded the road. They did this because they're getting hosed up by Afar. Blockading the road puts pressure on the central government, who could in turn pressure Afar to ease up on the Somalis. Is that basically it?
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Jul 28, 2021 17:01
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The Ethiopia Twitter Map is showing that the TPLF have a salient all the way to Debark. They don't cite any tweets or info for those events which supposedly happened within the past few days, but if true that would be a stunning show of incompetence for the EDF since you could not even imagine a more favorable terrain for defending than the north face of the Simien mountains from that approach. If they really have gotten to Debark then tbh I can't see how Abiy doesn't end up getting ousted, as that means the TPLF will be at Gondar in no time as they appear to have abandoned their primary defensive line. The Ethiopia Twitter Map also shows TPLF as capturing Weldiya which would be quite striking if true, as it would be the first major Amhara city they capture.
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Jul 28, 2021 19:38
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Count Roland posted:So Somalis blockaded the road. They did this because they're getting hosed up by Afar. Blockading the road puts pressure on the central government, who could in turn pressure Afar to ease up on the Somalis. Is that basically it? there’s like 10 million Somalis in Ethiopia, and like, 2 million afars. They’re not asking for help, they’re protesting the government not doing anything.
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Jul 28, 2021 19:55
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I would not trust a single thing on Twitter about this conflict, honestly, just given the proliferation of bots and disinformation on Horn politics.
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Jul 28, 2021 20:04
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KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:I would not trust a single thing on Twitter about this conflict, honestly, just given the proliferation of bots and disinformation on Horn politics. no one is rich enough to build a bot-net, and no one who matters in this uses twitter anyway.
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Jul 28, 2021 23:20
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https://twitter.com/OromiaWarUpdate/status/1418654982707032071 https://twitter.com/Quen10Tarantino/status/1420534652553551873 https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1420464424473747458 Local Militias set up roadblocks and threatened to shoot the soldiers if they kept running away. seems to have been succesful https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1420813522146054144
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Jul 29, 2021 19:50
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Saladman posted:The Ethiopia Twitter Map also shows TPLF as capturing Weldiya which would be quite striking if true, as it would be the first major Amhara city they capture. I see that the Twitter Map walked back on their Weldiya claims and put TPLF a few km outside of it, and with what seems to be reasonable substantiation of the claims. I could not find any confirmation or photos or anything showing that the TPLF had made it up to the summit of the Simien mountain road to Gondar (@ Limalimo Lodge, which is on the cliff). No updates on Limalimo's FB / IG page since early June. Limalimo is one of the very few fancy and expensive "remote nature eco camp/lodges" in Ethiopia, similar to high-end safari camps you see in Kenya/Tanzania/Namibia/SA. E: Also I've been casually browsing the Ethiopia reddit the past year and a half or so, and good god so many people posting there are so bloodthirsty, presumably most of whom are expats as 99% of posts are in English. I spent a month in Ethiopia last year, and we went around most of the Amhara and Tigray regions, and I recently looked at my notes and found some things like "every bar and restaurant in Tigray is constantly playing martial music and showing music videos of tanks and AK-47s" and "no checkpoints the entire time except in Tigray" and in Tigray there were maybe a dozen checkpoints on the road between Alamata and Shire [~500 km]. Our guide to the Danakil depression from Mekele also told us that he thought Abiy was a "bloodthirsty vampire". I guess he was right. The TPLF also posted their demands for a ceasefire. (Note that the current year in Ethiopia is 2013, and 2014 starts in September. They're not asking for old budget documents.) https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E7bKfzDXEAIvasC?format=png&name=900x900 Saladman fucked around with this message at 16:02 on Jul 30, 2021 |
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Jul 30, 2021 15:40
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Those demands seem pretty reasonable E: I guess since "invaders" here means the central government it could be a hard sell Count Roland fucked around with this message at 16:59 on Jul 30, 2021 |
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Jul 30, 2021 16:56
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By "transitional government composed of all political parties for Ethiopia" I assume they mean "bring back the EPRDF and let Tigrayan elites dominate it again"
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Jul 30, 2021 17:31
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The TPLF has supposedly captured Lalibela -- site of the most famous tourist attractions in Ethiopia -- and Gashena, which is a medium-sized town which sits on the main -- and one of only two -- roads that go from east to west Amhara. It doesn't really bifurcate Abiy and the ENDF, they can resupply just fine either way coming from Addis, but it's a pretty bad sign for them. Lalibela is a small town, barely more than a village, but of course it has a lot of emotional appeal both to Ethiopians and to foreigners. That said since Tigrayans are also the same type of orthodox Christian I would hope / not expect them to do any damage to the historical sites, but who knows, as most Eritreans are more culturally/linguistically/ethnically/religiously similar to Tigrayans as Tigrayans are to Amhara, and they burned and looted Axum just fine. I could never find out any additional information on the Debark front as to whether the TPLF had actually made it to the top of the Simien wall (at Limalimo Lodge), or if they were unable to get over the cliff and still in Chew Ber. I would honestly kind of guess the latter since there's no substantiation of reaching the top of Simien yet, and the top of a cliff doesn't seem like the type of place you'd just 'stop' when Debark is a small town just a few km down a flat, paved road from Limalimo. Capturing Lalibela does also mean that the area with the Tekeze Dam and lake is completely 100% isolated; the only two road accesses to there are from Axum and Gashena; there are no east-west roads in the entire region from Gashena up until Axum. The only substantiation I see of TPLF taking Gashena and Lalibela are a photo of two guys in front of the Lalibela branch of the Nib bank: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E8COIZWVIAMyeKB?format=jpg&name=large (that is a Nib bank, and the sign on it says ላሊበላ ("Lalibela"); located here: https://location.westernunion.com/et/amhara/lalibela/bb46f087bc79a992a25d8a0962af6291 ) and one guy in front of a restaurant in Gashena: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E8COIZVUYAwCy62?format=jpg&name=large Whether they're Tigrayans or whether those are even new photos, I guess the next few days or possibly even hours will tell. E: Couldn't find anything else about #Lalibela, just unsubstantiated reports from Reuters saying "Amhara militia they are in contact with" said they pulled out. There are some fake photos of damage to the rock churches in Lalibela (photos are real but damage was pre-existing). I guess Ethiopian infantry and militia have better self-restraint against posting everything on Twitter and Instagram than did Azeri and Armenian infantry, either that or the cell towers are down. Now that I think about it the only actual photos I saw of damage to cultural sites were the damage to the ancient mausoleum/burial chapel in Negash. I never actually saw any photos of damage to Axum (just the airport) or the churches in Tigray. Kind of surprising how little has leaked out in this era of satellite phones, especially now that the TPLF has control over Tigray again. I never heard back from the person in Axum that I emailed and who I had kept in contact with a couple times prior to the war. He is an old guy (~60s) and wealthy and has been through a lot, having always lived in Tigray, so hopefully he found a way to not get murdered. Saladman fucked around with this message at 18:41 on Aug 5, 2021 |
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Aug 5, 2021 17:50
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Sub-Saharan Africa is not exactly my area of expertise, so I have little to offer to this thread other than my heartfelt thanks to Saladman and company for keeping us updated. Please don't mistake the silence after your super-informative posts as disinterest! I'm checking in once or twice a day, and I'm sure others are as well.
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Aug 5, 2021 19:09
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BBC confirming that for Lalibela, so I guess that news must be true: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-58101912 I was suspicious of Twitter before since they also had Weldiya (incorrectly) listed as captured by TPLF. I am also IG friends with a guy in Lalibela who posts regularly, but I'm almost afraid to message him right now... I talked to him about 3 months ago and he said everything was super normal other than the lack of tourists.
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Aug 5, 2021 19:13
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Saladman posted:BBC confirming that for Lalibela, so I guess that news must be true: Are you afraid that he might get in trouble if soldiers were to find recent message traffic in a foreign language on his phone?
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Aug 5, 2021 21:45
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Gimmick Account posted:Sub-Saharan Africa is not exactly my area of expertise, so I have little to offer to this thread other than my heartfelt thanks to Saladman and company for keeping us updated. Please don't mistake the silence after your super-informative posts as disinterest! I'm checking in once or twice a day, and I'm sure others are as well. Same
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Aug 6, 2021 00:15
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Why does the Ethiopian military suck at putting down insurrections?
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Aug 6, 2021 00:39
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Gimmick Account posted:Are you afraid that he might get in trouble if soldiers were to find recent message traffic in a foreign language on his phone? When I lived there, Al Jazeera was blocked, but not Al Jazeera English. I didn't get the feeling they cared about much of anything that happened in foreign languages. Of course, I left there 8 years ago, and things like that may have changed since then.
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Aug 6, 2021 00:46
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Grouchio posted:Why does the Ethiopian military suck at putting down insurrections? The struggle of creating a western style military in a society that doesn't support it is you end up with a bunch of people who have little attachment to national institutions. That's part of why the regional militias are doing the most of the fighting: they actually care about the people they're fighting alongside and the people they're fighting for.
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Aug 6, 2021 01:25
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Grouchio posted:Why does the Ethiopian military suck at putting down insurrections? Ethiopia wouldn’t exist if it wasn’t able to put down insurgencies. This is far more than an insurrection, a full quarter of the army and its elite divisions joined the TPLF. Also, most of the ethnicities Abiy is drafting don’t want to die to bring back the Shewan/Amhara hegemony. That could change if it seems that the TPLF seems likely to come back to power, given that the scars the Junta created are more recent. https://mobile.twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1423465189941338112 https://mobile.twitter.com/PowerUSA...650683795382277 lol https://mobile.twitter.com/addissta...609858%3Fs%3D20 https://mobile.twitter.com/OromiaWarUpdate/status/1423348486863474698 PawParole fucked around with this message at 03:35 on Aug 6, 2021 |
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Aug 6, 2021 03:29
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Gimmick Account posted:Are you afraid that he might get in trouble if soldiers were to find recent message traffic in a foreign language on his phone? Not really, more afraid that he would be dead. I just messaged him, but on Instagram so I don't know if he got it. It looks like the TPLF passed through without any fighting and no reports of mass roundups yet, so probably he is fine. My last messages with him were for Easter. There doesn't really seem to be much angle of "foreign intervention" in the current conflict and if anything it seems like outside ties have actually helped people, e.g. Tigrayans in Tigray who had US passports were able to get out even during the occupation period. I see the Ethiopia Twitter Map removed the "TPLF occupies Limalimo" marker and they moved the TPLF occupation back a few km (and ~1000m in elevation) so that that salient no longer reaches the top of the Simien road.
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Aug 6, 2021 11:05
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This is the first time I've ever looked for breaking news directly on Twitter, and gosh is it a huge pile of trash, it's like a pure feed of idiocy injected into my eyeballs. At least on Facebook my news feed is curated in that I only see what friends post or comment on. https://twitter.com/hashtag/Lalibela?src=hashtag_click&f=live I can't imagine having to sift through toxic garbage like that to make those liveuamaps. I wonder how they search anyway as searching in the Ethiopian alphabet didn't turn up any results https://twitter.com/hashtag/%E1%88%8B%E1%88%8A%E1%89%A0%E1%88%8B?lang=en and everything on Twitter is in English which presumably most TPLF soldiers don't speak, or at least wouldn't use as their primary method of poo poo posting online.
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Aug 6, 2021 12:07
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lol
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Aug 6, 2021 16:32
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lol indeed. A lot of people will die all while they try to justify those deaths by violently flipping through history books.
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Aug 6, 2021 17:50
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