Middle East Thread: Clarissa Explains the Fall

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread: Clarissa Explains the Fall

Typo: Aug 19, 2009; Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

How are u posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ee_uujKuJMI

Its a song about George W Bush

That song was over Iraq not Afghanistan

and as much as I <3 green day oh come on they dont' stand up to CCR or Edwin Starr

# ? Aug 12, 2021 22:43

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# ? May 28, 2024 12:45

Count Roland: Oct 6, 2013

Ok people are biting so lets make this official. We're guessing when Kabul falls. To define this more narrowly, lets say its when the Taliban capture the Arg (the presidential palace, which holds Ghani's offices and those of his chiefs of staff) as called by AP or Reuters. As called by AP or Reuters-- if some tweet calls it 11:50pm and AP calls it 12:10am, then it will be the day of the AP report. If there's ambiguity over the fall of the palace, we'll consider it fallen when a Taliban flag flies over it. If the palace is destroyed then the Parliament building is next in line.

I'm being specific because in the closing days things could get messy as government officials flee, die or switch sides. I bet there will be several assertions Kabul has fallen or the government has surrendered or Ghani has been killed or whatever. We'll stick with the Taliban flag over the Arg, for its symbolic value.

You can choose only one date. Only one date per account. I'll quote your post to ensure its in the sheet. First come first served.

Al-Saqr posted:

My gut says before august 30th but my funny bone says a day or two before or on 9/11

Please choose a single date

Koaxke posted:

Dibs on 8/27.

You're in.

e: removed redundancy

# ? Aug 12, 2021 22:49

Loving Africa Chaps: Dec 3, 2007; We had not left it yet, but when I would wake in the night, I would lie, listening, homesick for it already.

5/11

# ? Aug 12, 2021 22:51

Al-Saqr: Nov 11, 2007; One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

Ok gently caress it:-

We will see the Taliban in the Arg and take Kabul on September 1st.

1/9/2021

I give them a couple weeks to mass their forces, negotiate surrender terms with Ghani, evacuate embassy personnel, etc.

Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 22:56 on Aug 12, 2021

# ? Aug 12, 2021 22:54

Count Roland: Oct 6, 2013

Loving Africa Chaps posted:

5/11

Ok, lets not use numerical dates because Americans format it stupidly and it gets confusing. Please render your guess as text eg Nov 5, or April 20, 2022.

I assume this is Nov 5? Quite appropriate.

# ? Aug 12, 2021 22:55

Count Roland: Oct 6, 2013

Al-Saqr posted:

Ok gently caress it:-

We will see the Taliban in the Arg and take Kabul on September 1st.

I give them a couple weeks to mass their forces, negotiate surrender terms with Ghani, evacuate embassy personnel, etc.

Got it.

# ? Aug 12, 2021 22:56

Loving Africa Chaps: Dec 3, 2007; We had not left it yet, but when I would wake in the night, I would lie, listening, homesick for it already.

Count Roland posted:

Ok, lets not use numerical dates because Americans format it stupidly and it gets confusing. Please render your guess as text eg Nov 5, or April 20, 2022.

I assume this is Nov 5? Quite appropriate.

No September 5th. 9/11 has been ingrained so badly as a date I keep thinking September is month 11

# ? Aug 12, 2021 22:56

Mokotow: Apr 16, 2012

December 2nd for my birthday

# ? Aug 12, 2021 22:56

Absurd Alhazred: Mar 27, 2010; by Athanatos

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

For those who stated that I was full of poo poo when I said the fall of Kandahar was imminent.

loving weep.

Just wait till the day that Kabul is surrounded and 98% Taliban control happen Biden will announce "well protecting one city with 300,000 troops is good odds. Aw shucks I poo poo my pants again"

I would think that the Middle East thread would be more of a "consider the consequences for the Afghans and others affected by this" and less of a "dunk on the US administration" place. This is coming off kind of bloodlusty and gross.

Absurd Alhazred fucked around with this message at 14:56 on Aug 13, 2021

# ? Aug 12, 2021 22:56

Dr Kool-AIDS: Mar 26, 2004

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

For those who stated that I was full of poo poo when I said the fall of Kandahar was imminent.

loving weep.

Just wait till the day that Kabul is surrounded and 98% Taliban control happen Biden will announce "well protecting one city with 300,000 troops is good odds. Aw shucks I poo poo my pants again"

You said Kandahar had been routed on July 11th, so it happening over a month later is a weird time to decide to tell everyone you were right all along. Nobody said it was going to stand forever, and while it happened faster than most of us probably would have predicted, people were right to tell you it wasn't happening yet back in July.

# ? Aug 12, 2021 23:00

Count Roland: Oct 6, 2013

Loving Africa Chaps posted:

No September 5th. 9/11 has been ingrained so badly as a date I keep thinking September is month 11

Sept 5, cool.

Mokotow posted:

December 2nd for my birthday

Got it

# ? Aug 12, 2021 23:05

escapegoat: Aug 18, 2013

Another birthday bet here with August 29th.

# ? Aug 12, 2021 23:17

OctaMurk: Jun 21, 2013

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

For those who stated that I was full of poo poo when I said the fall of Kandahar was imminent.

loving weep.

Just wait till the day that Kabul is surrounded and 98% Taliban control happen Biden will announce "well protecting one city with 300,000 troops is good odds. Aw shucks I poo poo my pants again"

"gently caress yeah cry more americans! One month after I claimed Kandahar already fell, it has actually fallen! Woohooo cant wait for the taliban start making women second class citizens and cutting off hands!"

# ? Aug 12, 2021 23:20

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

My birthday is in April but unfortunately I'm not that optimistic. What a clusterfuck.

# ? Aug 12, 2021 23:31

Shageletic: Jul 25, 2007

9/12/21

# ? Aug 12, 2021 23:33

Logic Probed: Feb 26, 2011; Having a normal one since 2016

I'm going to be the oddball out and say next week on August 16th.

# ? Aug 12, 2021 23:35

How are u: May 19, 2005; by Azathoth

Logic Probed posted:

I'm going to be the oddball out and say next week on August 16th.

I have a similar feeling that it is going to be sooner than later. I'll guesstimate August 20th.

# ? Aug 12, 2021 23:40

ThisIsJohnWayne: Feb 23, 2007; Ooo! Look at me! NO DON'T LOOK AT ME!

I'm guessing tomorrow, Friday the 13th (of August 2021). But I'm going to cheat and define a correct guess as the current afghani government steps down, no flag required.

ThisIsJohnWayne fucked around with this message at 00:05 on Aug 13, 2021

# ? Aug 13, 2021 00:03

Antlerhill: Nov 6, 2012; Smellrose

October 3rd.

No way they let Kabul fall around Sept11.

# ? Aug 13, 2021 00:13

Count Roland: Oct 6, 2013

Shageletic posted:

9/12/21

Is this sept 12?

Antlerhill posted:

October 3rd.

No way they let Kabul fall around Sept11.

How are u posted:

I have a similar feeling that it is going to be sooner than later. I'll guesstimate August 20th.

Logic Probed posted:

I'm going to be the oddball out and say next week on August 16th.

escapegoat posted:

Another birthday bet here with August 29th.

ThisIsJohnWayne posted:

I'm guessing tomorrow, Friday the 13th (of August 2021). But I'm going to cheat and define a correct guess as the current afghani government steps down, no flag required.

In

For myself I'll go with Oct 19. I could see the Taliban wanting to get the win on the Prophet's birthday, and its at the end of the fighting season. Winter sets in around then; if Kabul survives until the snows then it'll be safe until the spring I think.

# ? Aug 13, 2021 00:25

WoodrowSkillson: Feb 24, 2005; *Gestures at 60 years of Lions history*

September 2nd

# ? Aug 13, 2021 00:27

duck.exe: Apr 14, 2012; Nap Ghost

August 14th

# ? Aug 13, 2021 00:28

Count Roland: Oct 6, 2013

WoodrowSkillson posted:

September 2nd

DukeDuke posted:

August 14th

And in

# ? Aug 13, 2021 00:37

HisMajestyBOB: Oct 21, 2010; College Slice

Sept 11
(That's 9/11 :911:

)

# ? Aug 13, 2021 00:47

PawParole: Nov 16, 2019

oh yeah it's almost mawlid.

they're Deobandi, so i doubt they'll care

PawParole fucked around with this message at 00:57 on Aug 13, 2021

# ? Aug 13, 2021 00:54

Count Roland: Oct 6, 2013

HisMajestyBOB posted:

Sept 11
(That's 9/11 )

In.

Here's the rundown so far:

pre:

ThisIsJohnWayne		Aug-13
DukeDuke		Aug-14
Logic Probed		Aug-16
How are u		Aug-20
Koaxke			Aug-27
escapegoat		Aug-29
Al-Saqr			Sep-1
WoodrowSkillson		Sep-2
Loving Africa Chaps	Sep-5
HisMajestyBOB		Sep-11
Antlerhill		Oct-3
Count Roland		Oct-19
Mokotow			Dec-2
Shageletic		I need the date clarified

# ? Aug 13, 2021 01:00

Il Federale: Oct 10, 2012

October 7th

# ? Aug 13, 2021 01:11

Rosalind: Apr 30, 2013; When we hit our lowest point, we are open to the greatest change.

I just lurk this thread but put me down for Sept. 10.

# ? Aug 13, 2021 01:14

Dante80: Mar 23, 2015

Wanted to day Oct 3rd cause it's my birthday, but got taken. So, Nov 19th.

# ? Aug 13, 2021 01:17

Count Roland: Oct 6, 2013

Il Federale posted:

October 7th

got it

Rosalind posted:

I just lurk this thread but put me down for Sept. 10.

welcome lurker, you're in

Dante80 posted:

Wanted to day Oct 3rd cause it's my birthday, but got taken. So, Nov 19th.

# ? Aug 13, 2021 01:29

Wulf: May 8, 2008

Heeh, maybe two weeks? Let's say 26th august.

# ? Aug 13, 2021 01:33

Zotix: Aug 14, 2011

August 18 is my guess.

# ? Aug 13, 2021 01:35

Count Roland: Oct 6, 2013

Zotix posted:

August 18 is my guess.

Wulf posted:

Heeh, maybe two weeks? Let's say 26th august.

# ? Aug 13, 2021 01:49

sullat: Jan 9, 2012

Sept. 3rd

# ? Aug 13, 2021 02:11

piL: Sep 20, 2007; (__|\\\\); Taco Defender

Lost Time posted:

They'll say he withdrew in an embarrassing way worse than Trump would have. And that's that. You think after these last 50 years these people deal in reality or give a poo poo about hypocrisy? As long as they get the attack in, it'll stay in the consciousness. This is easy mode compared to Benghazi.

Americans have short memories and they'll just remember a botched ending and associate those images, along with the hefty amount of lies told just a month ago by Biden admin about the situation there (imagine all those Then&Now memes).
So I think the Republicans will roll with that, media will roll with that, and on we go. It won't be this big celebration of getting out Afghanistan as much as it would be many Americans being depressed on how the exit looked so much like poo poo.

It's a pride thing that affects Americans across the board, so it would have some affect on even the average American. Probably not as much as rising COVID cases and other stuff that will also be blamed on Biden, but it certainly won't help.

# ? Aug 13, 2021 02:19

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

They seem to forget that trump promised to pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan less than a year into his presidency.

The TB's Latest Haul:

Fully assembled drone ready to survey sharia law violations(Or Sell to Russians)

OH and its our boy Dostum. Jetted to Maz al Sherif to save the northern alliance (again)

quote:

Uzbek militia leader Abdul Rashid Dostum has jetted into northern Afghanistan to stop the Taliban from capturing Mazar-i-Sharif. Kabul is hoping Dostum's military acumen and hatred of the Taliban can help beat back the current insurgent offensive

Interestingly enough,

quote:

Taliban today captured strategic city of S.Ghazni province, some sources said "without much resistance." Sources&militants confirmed Taliban provided a Safe passage to top Provincial officials including the governor to leave for Kabul by road,while driving through Taliban checks

And the big surrender is here: