|
Zedsdeadbaby posted:Ok so short term wise I understand the flak Biden gets for not getting all the Afghan intepreters and helpers out before withdrawing US forces. There were lots of articles on the many failings of the Afghan government and their American partners. Turns out there are some important moments in nation building that you cant fudge or phone in.
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 18:59
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 10:49 |
|
|
I just cannot fathom how spectacular this failure is. I wonder if the US genuinely did not expect to see how badly this reflects on them, in the long term.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 18:59
|
|
|
Zedsdeadbaby posted:Ok so short term wise I understand the flak Biden gets for not getting all the Afghan intepreters and helpers out before withdrawing US forces. They noticed right away. They've known Afghanistan would collapse the instant they pulled out at least 15 or more years ago. Everyone since then has been kicking the can down the road, hoping the problem would miraculously fix itself. It turns out "nation-building" is a lot easier on paper and in think tanks than in real life.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:00
|
|
|
Grip it and rip it posted:The last administration did as much as they could to sandbag this process as well,but I agree that its a massive slap in the face to anyone who has ever taken up arms with the US. Easy to see why people loath us. History seems to matter only to people interested in studying it. The list of screwed-over US stooges is long and that’s just casually thinking about all of our stupid post-WWII hijinks. Plus, the left-to-die:protected ratio gets worse if you start working on a skin color scale.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:00
|
|
|
Eric Cantonese posted:I’m not saying Biden deserves any praise, but if you’re planning based on poo poo information about the ability of the Afghan government to exist, I don’t know if any plan would have gotten caught out. Even the most cynical estimates gave that government multiple months to fight on. Zedsdeadbaby posted:Ok so short term wise I understand the flak Biden gets for not getting all the Afghan intepreters and helpers out before withdrawing US forces. Either they knew and are completely craven liars trying to save face up until the last minute, or the entire US state apparatus has been bled dry of competency and have no idea what is going on. Or maybe a little of both.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:03
|
|
|
GoLambo posted:Either they knew and are completely craven liars trying to save face up until the last minute, or the entire US state apparatus has been bled dry of competency and have no idea what is going on. Back in 2015 they started actively classifying sections of reports that had what the Obama administration decided were excessively negative reports on the state of the Afghan security forces.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:07
|
|
|
Craptacular! posted:This is such a loving atrocity. How are we unable to do this now and not, say, leave when the tyrant taking power was literally anyone else? Even the local warlords who stepped in the power vacuum for a time would be better than this because they would be against each other. A civil war between Hekmetyar and Abdullah isn't better you monstrous nincompoop.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:07
|
|
|
GoLambo posted:Either they knew and are completely craven liars trying to save face up until the last minute, or the entire US state apparatus has been bled dry of competency and have no idea what is going on. I suspect it’s a mix. Didn’t someone here share a piece about how US personnel are often just staying within fortress walls and not going out and seeing things for themselves? And that’s ignoring how hard it is to get around Afghanistan as a whole.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:08
|
|
|
J33uk posted:Back in 2015 they started actively classifying sections of reports that had what the Obama administration decided were excessively negative reports on the state of the Afghan security forces. I'm going to say that the excessive focus on the Afghan security forces in terms of spending and effort compared to buildling civilian economic and political infrastructure is why this whole thing crumpled as it did. It takes more to make a resilient state than just pumping loads of money into trying to create a 'modern' military force in a country that completely lacks the economic, social and instiutional means to actually support such an army.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:11
|
|
|
Eric Cantonese posted:I suspect it’s a mix. Didn’t someone here share a piece about how US personnel are often just staying within fortress walls and not going out and seeing things for themselves? The actual answer that should lead you to is that the American state apparatus is rotten to the core, cannot govern and isn't fit to rule over anything.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:14
|
|
|
Finally caught up on what's been going on. Just a technical comment: I suggest screenshotting some of these tweets because there were a handful that weren't there what seems like hours later.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:15
|
|
|
tbqh, i have zero trust in blinken after his press conference today and weeks of insisting everything was fine in afghanistanRandarkman posted:I'm going to say that the excessive focus on the Afghan security forces in terms of spending and effort compared to buildling civilian economic and political infrastructure is why this whole thing crumpled as it did. It takes more to make a resilient state than just pumping loads of money into trying to create a 'modern' military force in a country that completely lacks the economic, social and instiutional means to actually support such an army. okay, but it’s not like the us and a bunch of other actors didn’t pour a ton of money into developing other sectors. we can always say that they should have invested “more” but i wouldn’t say that it occurred to no one to invest in economic and political infrastructure QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 19:20 on Aug 15, 2021 |
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:16
|
|
|
Randarkman posted:I'm going to say that the excessive focus on the Afghan security forces in terms of spending and effort compared to buildling civilian economic and political infrastructure is why this whole thing crumpled as it did. It takes more to make a resilient state than just pumping loads of money into trying to create a 'modern' military force in a country that completely lacks the economic, social and instiutional means to actually support such an army. Its not simple. Cant create economic, social and institutional means unless there is security to prevent them from being destroyed.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:17
|
|
|
QuoProQuid posted:tbqh, i have zero trust in blinken after his press conference today and weeks of insisting everything was fine in afghanistan I think the "everything is fine" goalpost has moved. A while ago people were saying the "security situation in kabul was fine" which at one point meant no taliban, but now means the taliban are preventing looting.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:17
|
|
|
QuoProQuid posted:tbqh, i have zero trust in blinken after his press conference today and weeks of insisting everything was fine in afghanistan Based on this and the July 4th "We can unmask!" party it's pretty clear the Biden administration's policy is based on the bestseller "The Secret".
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:18
|
|
|
GoLambo posted:The actual answer that should lead you to is that the American state apparatus is rotten to the core, cannot govern and isn't fit to rule over anything. Seems like they propped up a regime pretty easily for 2 decades. Do you have some examples of legitimate governmental institutions that have engaged in similar efforts of nation building in recent history? My admittedly limited recall of recent international history suggests that puppet regimes dont generally last long after their support departs. I dont think its a uniquely American problem
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:20
|
|
|
Randarkman posted:I'm going to say that the excessive focus on the Afghan security forces in terms of spending and effort compared to buildling civilian economic and political infrastructure is why this whole thing crumpled as it did. It takes more to make a resilient state than just pumping loads of money into trying to create a 'modern' military force in a country that completely lacks the economic, social and instiutional means to actually support such an army. I don't think your thesis survives the fact that the Taliban have done 'effective fighting force first, governance next'. Yeah ideally nation building is about economic and political infrastructure but you can't do that under fire.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:21
|
|
|
Vasukhani posted:I think the "everything is fine" goalpost has moved. A while ago people were saying the "security situation in kabul was fine" which at one point meant no taliban, but now means the taliban are preventing looting. it’s just hard to say, “this isn’t another Saigon moment and the us effort was successful” while helicopters are taking off from rooftops to evacuate people and the embassy is fleeing to the airport QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 19:24 on Aug 15, 2021 |
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:21
|
|
|
GoLambo posted:The actual answer that should lead you to is that the American state apparatus is rotten to the core, cannot govern and isn't fit to rule over anything. I was there a long time ago.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:21
|
|
|
So you have sort of a classic situation where an opposition is united against a common enemy (the US) that is now going away. So going by Afghanistan’s fractured tribal history, what are the chances there’s a power struggle now amongst the Taliban? Even with their recent occupations of various cities there’s still huge swathes of the country that are effectively controlled by local tribes and warlords. This isn’t the 90’s, there’s a lot of different forces at play, I do wonder how stable a Taliban government can actually be.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:23
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:23
|
|
|
Zedsdeadbaby posted:Ok so short term wise I understand the flak Biden gets for not getting all the Afghan intepreters and helpers out before withdrawing US forces. in addition to what others have said: lots of people either paid to not notice things, or people who wouldn't be in the positions they were in if they had the ability/willingness to notice things
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:24
|
|
|
OctaMurk posted:Its not simple. Cant create economic, social and institutional means unless there is security to prevent them from being destroyed. Yes. Hence why the whole project was kind of hosed from the start. And the nation building thing was also not why the US invaded, just something that got added along with mission creep to justify remaining. Alchenar posted:I don't think your thesis survives the fact that the Taliban have done 'effective fighting force first, governance next'. Yeah, but the Taliban didn't really try to create a western style military in terms of organization and how its deployed. Irregular or traditional style miltiary forces are historically often superior in terms of their effectiveness and resilience compared to attempts to create modern regular militaries in countries that don't really have the conditions that made those military forces possible. e: The Afghan state probably by all means could have had effective fighting forces, but almost certainly not the of the type that the US and NATO was trying to establish there. And on top of all other issues, the government's legitimacy was always going to be shaky at best. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 19:30 on Aug 15, 2021 |
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:25
|
|
|
Vietnom nom nom posted:So you have sort of a classic situation where an opposition is united against a common enemy (the US) that is now going away. So going by Afghanistan’s fractured tribal history, what are the chances there’s a power struggle now amongst the Taliban? Even with their recent occupations of various cities there’s still huge swathes of the country that are effectively controlled by local tribes and warlords. They seemed awfully unified and cohesive enough to retake the entire country in less than two weeks, I doubt it will descend into petty squabbling. I hate to say it, but they aren't stupid and had twenty years to cook up a long-term plan for ruling the roost. Let's not forget they skipped a hell of a lot of fighting by talking to all the disparate tribes ahead of time, and were able to just saunter into most cities without firing a bullet. People were saying tribal struggles, factions, etc but that was before the Taliban took the north without a fuss, and that was traditionally strongly anti-Taliban. Things have changed, and not for the best.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:26
|
|
|
Vietnom nom nom posted:So you have sort of a classic situation where an opposition is united against a common enemy (the US) that is now going away. So going by Afghanistan’s fractured tribal history, what are the chances there’s a power struggle now amongst the Taliban? Even with their recent occupations of various cities there’s still huge swathes of the country that are effectively controlled by local tribes and warlords. the entire country of afghanistan isn’t singularly united against the us and the reasons for the country’s collapse run deeper than a kneejerk “gently caress america!” impulse
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:26
|
|
|
Will the last Marine in kabul please lock the mcdonalds
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:30
|
|
|
Zedsdeadbaby posted:They seemed awfully unified and cohesive enough to retake the entire country in less than two weeks, I doubt it will descend into petty squabbling. I hate to say it, but they aren't stupid and had twenty years to cook up a long-term plan for ruling the roost. Let's not forget they skipped a hell of a lot of fighting by talking to all the disparate tribes ahead of time, and were able to just saunter into most cities without firing a bullet. DIdn't they pay a lot of people off? I wonder how the Chinese do a "belt and road" initiative with Afghanistan if Afghanistan is really that incapable of being stable under a single central government. It's hard to see an infrastructure project through to completion if it's always getting blown up. That being said, from what I remember of Steve Coll's Ghost Wars, Afghanistan had a fairly long period of peace under their last king due to that King being pretty good at riding that fine line between central leader while respecting the autonomy of the various tribes. If they were able to pave the way for their campaign through that kind of balanced diplomacy and stick with it, after victory, then maybe the Taliban could pull that off,
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:34
|
|
|
Smeef posted:This is basically the same thinking that kept the US in this for 20 years and countless other powers in distant, unnecessary quagmires for decades. Some variation of this outcome was going to happen whether it was 2 years, 5 years, 20 years or 40 years. There were other attempts at taking power in Afghanistan that weren't the Taliban. Some were considered to be worse than the Taliban, but they were regional dictators who didn't like each other. Zedsdeadbaby posted:Ok so short term wise I understand the flak Biden gets for not getting all the Afghan intepreters and helpers out before withdrawing US forces. This is what normally happens. Iraq is exceptional because the people there want a reasonably free and modern state by middle eastern standards (they need one just to keep pace with Iran, remember) so they will govern themselves if we simply keep their borders secure.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:36
|
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Will the last Marine in kabul please lock the mcdonalds Semper size Fi
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:39
|
|
|
J33uk posted:Back in 2015 they started actively classifying sections of reports that had what the Obama administration decided were excessively negative reports on the state of the Afghan security forces. https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1426946534827073540?s=19
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:41
|
|
|
Craptacular! posted:There were other attempts at taking power in Afghanistan that weren't the Taliban. Some were considered to be worse than the Taliban, but they were regional dictators who didn't like each other. So would you say its a cultural or genetical deficiency that results in the average person from the middle east yearning for authoritarianism?
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:43
|
|
|
I wonder how long those briefing assessments gave. I'm pretty sure they expected the country to hold up longer than a week.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:43
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/john_sipher/status/1426977052960468998?s=19
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:49
|
|
|
Zedsdeadbaby posted:What I don't understand is how the US spent two decades and several trillion dollars only to see Afghanistan fold in under two weeks. What in the actual gently caress happened there? And don't just blithely say 'lol soldiers didn't get paid'. The Americans had 20 loving years to notice this. The United States is really, really bad at building things. Both in the literal (most of our labor is outsourced, Reprivatisierung is an ethos among both parties, we struggle to centrally build & upkeep our own country let alone others) and abstract (We've spent the majority of our years as a global superpower funding death squads, leveling nations, tricking eastern european nations into making the same mistakes we did, fetishizing shock doctrine, etc.). It's not a surprise that all there is to show for twenty years and trillions of dollars of effort is a lot of air bases, a military that has been trained to be incompetent at dealing with guerilla warfare, and enormous caches of guns; it's all we really know. That and convincing US businesses to open fast food chains in inappropriate places. Maybe China will do better, by simple virtue of the fact that they're considering infrastructure projects, and not reserving space for hangar queens. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 19:52 on Aug 15, 2021 |
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:50
|
|
|
J33uk posted:Back in 2015 they started actively classifying sections of reports that had what the Obama administration decided were excessively negative reports on the state of the Afghan security forces. this, its all of the admins faults. W could have "solved" some of the stuff but decided to stick his dick in iraq and see what would happen. Obama got stuff under "control" again but that was basicaly the beginning of the "chemo is the only thing keeping them alive" stage. trump basically either dropped MOABs to wanting to give them a peace summit at camp david during 9/11 and said we were leaving in may but his brain drain and all that grifty bullshit didnt put anything in place. Biden comes in and makes the right choice of pulling out but theoretically giving time for us to actually prepare getting people out. but it seems like a mix of brain drain still being in affect and the "we legit didnt know how loving bad it was because obama downplayed it and i doubt trump even gave a gently caress to get reports on it and LOL W compiled poo poo worse.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:50
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/i/status/1426973510195466248
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:56
|
|
|
There's a fairly decent write up on Politico detailing how the various assessments were tweaked if anyone wants to do a deep dive. https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/13/afghan-army-pentagon-504469
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 19:58
|
|
|
I’d also say that in larger orgs and bureaucracies metrics become the holy grail, I would be shocked if there was a fair bit of juking the stats or willful blindness so they could say they had trained them 300k recruits. And I think I’m most orgs it might not even be that, folks doing the training might be screaming that it’s going to poo poo; but that gets insulated the more levels you add til all you have is a report with 300k troops being communicated at the top. Any human is gonna optimize for the least amount of friction yknow?
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 20:00
|
|
|
Zedsdeadbaby posted:Ok so short term wise I understand the flak Biden gets for not getting all the Afghan intepreters and helpers out before withdrawing US forces. because the central government was basically also like the Taliban. a loose coalition of warlords and tribal leaders but instead of being united by reactionary Pashtun Islamic nationalism. its a mix of greed and maybe some nationalism and grift. and IC and State department basically lied to themselves for various reasons under various admins about how hosed it was. also i sorta think this won't hurt biden that much outside the "your leaving our allies to die" horror poo poo because outside the weird neocons, no one wants to be there and everyone knew it would end this way.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 20:02
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 10:49 |
|
|
Yeah, give credit where it is due, Biden had the guts to take the political hit from pulling out and Obama didn't.
|
|
#
?
Aug 15, 2021 20:02
|
|
