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https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1427165840999391233 In case you were wondering what the British position is on how this has played out...
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Aug 16, 2021 10:37
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Everything seems horrible at Kabul Airport. https://twitter.com/i/status/1427202316512514050 https://twitter.com/i/status/1427191622899441667 Don't play the second one if people falling to their deaths is something you do not want to see.
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Aug 16, 2021 10:56
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Is there any good long-winded, naval-gazey retrospectives on Afghanistan people can recommend that have come out recently providing perspective on this week's events? Preferably by somebody with a long-term understanding of the topic.
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Aug 16, 2021 11:03
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Sheriff Falc posted:Is there any good long-winded, naval-gazey retrospectives on Afghanistan people can recommend that have come out recently providing perspective on this week's events? Preferably by somebody with a long-term understanding of the topic. It's not really about the present conflict at all, being about the first Anglo-Afghan war, but if you're just interested in the history of Afghanistan and getting some general perspectives on that, then I can't really recommend Return of a King by William Dalrymple enough.
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Aug 16, 2021 11:11
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Sheriff Falc posted:Is there any good long-winded, naval-gazey retrospectives on Afghanistan people can recommend that have come out recently providing perspective on this week's events? Preferably by somebody with a long-term understanding of the topic. https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aH...RhD4pkj9rxgZXKA I disagree really strongly with sections of this (in particular the opposition to the surge and the assumption that a low footprint can be maintained indefinitely ignores the fact that the surge was prompted by a deteriorating security situation) but there aren't many people in the West who have gone and walked across the entire region to understand it.
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Aug 16, 2021 11:17
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There's a bunch of these videos now of people peeling of from the fuselage as the C-5 is lifting off. Those are the iconic images we'll have from this for decades to come. gently caress.
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Aug 16, 2021 11:21
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Interesting short thread about what the Taliban victory means for the Jihadist movements, basically the Taliban victory is teaching the Jihadists to work extremely locally, drop the caliphate business and work on having individual Islamic states that are rational actors willing to develop local and regional ties first:- https://twitter.com/m_alneser/status/1427203725278449664?s=21
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Aug 16, 2021 11:30
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Started with Americans falling out of buildings, ended with Afghans falling off of airplanes. Fitting end to this chapter of the War on Terror....
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Aug 16, 2021 11:32
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https://twitter.com/ccpcciea/status/1427199664751788035 according to translation, the french embassy has reopened in kabul with the ambassador planning to resume duties after the takeover. same for russia, pakistan, and turkey's embassies. that was loving quick
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Aug 16, 2021 11:33
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I can't see how this airlift can carry on with people hanging off of airplanes and others taking potshots at them, with that state of affairs there is going to be a plane crashing on the runway before the end of the day. Only way I can see this ending is the Americans being forced to make a deal with the Taliban to open up some additional exit routes.
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Aug 16, 2021 11:51
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Alchenar posted:https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aH...RhD4pkj9rxgZXKA Just listened to it! Very interesting to hear an expert's perspective. I wonder if his perspective on keeping a 'low footprint and some air power' has changed based on the last 48 hours' events. Randarkman posted:It's not really about the present conflict at all, being about the first Anglo-Afghan war, but if you're just interested in the history of Afghanistan and getting some general perspectives on that, then I can't really recommend Return of a King by William Dalrymple enough. Thanks for the recommendation! I will check it out.
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Aug 16, 2021 12:03
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Sheriff Falc posted:Just listened to it! Very interesting to hear an expert's perspective. I wonder if his perspective on keeping a 'low footprint and some air power' has changed based on the last 48 hours' events. I think the "low footprint and air power" take is missing a some things. The Taliban had been deliberately not attacking US forces based on the 2019 and early 2020 deal. The last time the Taliban was linked to a US combat death was February of 2020. Soon after, the deal was sealed for the US to leave by May. The Taliban tolerated air power throughout this period, taking multiple KIA from US strikes, but mostly at the tactical level, like responding to Afghan troops being attacked, not going out and hunting down senior Taliban members and killing them, or striking Taliban areas where they were congregating, but not engaging in combat. I do not think that if we told the Taliban that not only had we blown the May 2021 deadline, we also decided to leave a small footprint and airpower forever, that the Taliban would have said "aw, shucks, you got me," and just sat back for a couple more decades. They were already pissed that Biden slowed down the exit, compared to the agreement under Trump, and let that displeasure be known by harassing rocket attacks and public messages.
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Aug 16, 2021 12:23
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Nix Panicus posted:So, one positive that might come out of all this, we might see a break in the global supply of opium and a corresponding break in the opiate crisis now that the US isnt around Do you think sputnik news dot com is a reliable source
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Aug 16, 2021 12:26
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WHAT THE EVER LOVING gently caress JUST HAPPENED?!
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Aug 16, 2021 12:29
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54.4 crowns posted:WHAT THE EVER LOVING gently caress JUST HAPPENED?! https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1427230003327115265
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Aug 16, 2021 12:33
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lmao
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Aug 16, 2021 12:51
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https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1427236579882450946
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Aug 16, 2021 12:58
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mlmp08 posted:I think the "low footprint and air power" take is missing a some things. The Taliban had been deliberately not attacking US forces based on the 2019 and early 2020 deal. The last time the Taliban was linked to a US combat death was February of 2020. Soon after, the deal was sealed for the US to leave by May. The Taliban tolerated air power throughout this period, taking multiple KIA from US strikes, but mostly at the tactical level, like responding to Afghan troops being attacked, not going out and hunting down senior Taliban members and killing them, or striking Taliban areas where they were congregating, but not engaging in combat. I do not think that if we told the Taliban that not only had we blown the May 2021 deadline, we also decided to leave a small footprint and airpower forever, that the Taliban would have said "aw, shucks, you got me," and just sat back for a couple more decades. And even then the strategy of 'maintain a corrupt client state that most citizens don't acknowledge as legitimate in a set of urban bastions forever while an insurgency sweeps the rest of the country' is made to sound reasonable without a really rigorous examination of the 'why'.
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Aug 16, 2021 13:01
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mlmp08 posted:I think the "low footprint and air power" take is missing a some things. The Taliban had been deliberately not attacking US forces based on the 2019 and early 2020 deal. The last time the Taliban was linked to a US combat death was February of 2020. Soon after, the deal was sealed for the US to leave by May. The Taliban tolerated air power throughout this period, taking multiple KIA from US strikes, but mostly at the tactical level, like responding to Afghan troops being attacked, not going out and hunting down senior Taliban members and killing them, or striking Taliban areas where they were congregating, but not engaging in combat. I do not think that if we told the Taliban that not only had we blown the May 2021 deadline, we also decided to leave a small footprint and airpower forever, that the Taliban would have said "aw, shucks, you got me," and just sat back for a couple more decades. Yeah - to be clearer I think that was the worst take across his 36 minutes of air time because I really can't see a scenario where US leaves a skeleton crew of highly valuable assets on the ground that doesn't end catastrophically.
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Aug 16, 2021 13:02
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Alchenar posted:And even then the strategy of 'maintain a corrupt client state that most citizens don't acknowledge as legitimate in a set of urban bastions forever while an insurgency sweeps the rest of the country' is made to sound reasonable without a really rigorous examination of the 'why'. But enough about the US, let's get back to Afghanistan...
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Aug 16, 2021 13:06
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Dick Ripple posted:Started with Americans falling out of buildings, ended with Afghans falling off of airplanes. Fitting end to this chapter of the War on Terror.... But this isn't the end it's just more of the middle part.
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Aug 16, 2021 13:41
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https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1427249596326109184
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Aug 16, 2021 13:45
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So it's pretty safe to call yesterday as the winning bet, huh?
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Aug 16, 2021 13:54
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https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1427244916820877317
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Aug 16, 2021 14:02
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This is going to be in all of the propaganda now. "The US will fly their dogs out before you."
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Aug 16, 2021 14:06
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Xerxes17 posted:This is going to be in all of the propaganda now. "The US will fly their dogs out before you." We know Trump wouldn't have let the dogs come home.
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Aug 16, 2021 14:09
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I have to say, the Taliban have been extremely restrained about the whole Kabul airport thing. The US commanders must be sweating badly, cos they know that if the Taliban start shooting at the planes as they try to land and take off, the US military on the ground are hosed and would have no choice but to surrender.
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Aug 16, 2021 14:17
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Pistol_Pete posted:I have to say, the Taliban have been extremely restrained about the whole Kabul airport thing. The US commanders must be sweating badly, cos they know that if the Taliban start shooting at the planes as they try to land and take off, the US military on the ground are hosed and would have no choice but to surrender. The Taliban have set a deadline before they'll move to retake the airport, and it wouldn't surprise me if, as it approaches, a stand-off effectively turns the remaining military personnel and civilians into bargaining ships for guarantees regarding aid/sanctions or removal from terrorist watchlists.
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Aug 16, 2021 14:29
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I'd be surprised if there were any US troops left at the airport. Are they still there?
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Aug 16, 2021 14:34
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Pistol_Pete posted:I have to say, the Taliban have been extremely restrained about the whole Kabul airport thing. The US commanders must be sweating badly, cos they know that if the Taliban start shooting at the planes as they try to land and take off, the US military on the ground are hosed and would have no choice but to surrender. that would be insanely stupid as it would just restart the war. no one in the taliban wants to die now in a retaliatory airstrike. they have won and we are evacuating, all they have to do is busy themselves with everything else going on and we will be gone soon enough Mokotow posted:I'd be surprised if there were any US troops left at the airport. Are they still there? we just sent like 3000 more to the airport yesterday, they are actively trying to clear the runways right now
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Aug 16, 2021 14:35
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Pistol_Pete posted:if the Taliban start shooting at the planes as they try to land and take off, the US military on the ground are hosed and would have no choice but to surrender. No, not really.
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Aug 16, 2021 14:36
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no one wants to be the last guy to die in a war, its highly unlikely the taliban start actively trying to sabotage the evacuation. im sure individuals are taking potshots of course
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Aug 16, 2021 14:39
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Pistol_Pete posted:I have to say, the Taliban have been extremely restrained about the whole Kabul airport thing. The US commanders must be sweating badly, cos they know that if the Taliban start shooting at the planes as they try to land and take off, the US military on the ground are hosed and would have no choice but to surrender. the Taliban have to be extremely dumb to do that, and so far they've being very smart Dead Americans on TV are one of the few things that might trigger another round of American intervention
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Aug 16, 2021 14:41
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And the Taliban info campaign has been a lot of "lay down your arms willingly, and you can reintegrate into Afghan society." That message doesn't work on like... US troops in a foreign country.
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Aug 16, 2021 14:42
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Potrzebie posted:Everything seems horrible at Kabul Airport. 
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Aug 16, 2021 14:42
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Pistol_Pete posted:I have to say, the Taliban have been extremely restrained about the whole Kabul airport thing. The US commanders must be sweating badly, cos they know that if the Taliban start shooting at the planes as they try to land and take off, the US military on the ground are hosed and would have no choice but to surrender. This is not remotely true. US brought in 6,000 troops and pictures from the airport over the weekend show a lot of 82nd patches on shoulders. That almost certainly means they activated global QRF and dropped an entire airborne brigade on that airport (not by parachute in case that wording is confusing). A direct force on force engagement with a massed infantry formation that probably has every available asset in the US arsenal focused on it would not end well for the Taliban.
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Aug 16, 2021 14:48
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Yeah it's worth bearing in mind that the last 20 years have been a bit of a disaster for the Taliban (compared to the alternative of 'just hand over Bin Laden'). Ideology obviously pushes people towards suboptimal decision making but the goal within reach for the Taliban right now is 'do not directly antagonise the West and they'll go away forever and we get to go back to being in charge of the country'. Their success of the last few years has been to realise that if they don't kill Westerners then they'll get swiftly forgotten by the public and left to their own devices. That's why Taliban international messaging heavily emphasises the 'moderation' of their rule and how women will be allowed out of the home and can go to school
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Aug 16, 2021 15:04
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Jarmak posted:
Well, perhaps so, which is why I was specifically talking about the Taliban attacking planes as they approach the airport. 6,000 people is a lot of mouths to feed: prevent resupply from the air and the Taliban could simply starve them into submission in very short order. And from what we've seen, they can't even seem to maintain any order inside the airport, they're not exactly coming off as an organised and well prepared fighting force here.
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Aug 16, 2021 15:08
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Alchenar posted:That's why Taliban international messaging heavily emphasises the 'moderation' of their rule and how women will be allowed out of the home and can go to school Yeah, the proof of the pudding will be in the way they rule, and I expect it to be loving grim.
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Aug 16, 2021 15:09
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Pistol_Pete posted:Well, perhaps so, which is why I was specifically talking about the Taliban attacking planes as they approach the airport. 6,000 people is a lot of mouths to feed: prevent resupply from the air and the Taliban could simply starve them into submission in very short order. To what end? This would restart the war.
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Aug 16, 2021 15:12
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