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The administration thought they had more time and the other alternative was basically: https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1427309359734919177?s=19 So the administration could've hit the panic button a few weeks ago, but that likely immediately triggers the failure cascade and a similar rush for the airport and a Taliban surge. The administration gambled that the starving, decimated, bought off, and deeply compromised ANA could hold off a bit longer than they did if the Taliban did a big push. I put fault on the Biden folks for slow-walking the Visa processes, which is going to turbofuck the interpreter/ally community. I don't blame them for not starting up emergency flights earlier. It's bad all-around, every higher up for the past 20 years deserves a kick in the dick, Biden's just holding the bad for the final dick kick and stopping future administrations from receiving future kicks ... until they gently caress up and invade somewhere stupid too
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Aug 16, 2021 18:19
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The issues at stake are more state department things, and thats what got hollowed out.
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Aug 16, 2021 18:23
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MazelTovCocktail posted:Actually in weird way, the military oddly held itself together, at least ensuring Trump did use them for coup attempts. If the thing stopping a coup is the military saying they’d rather not do a coup, you are in trouble.
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Aug 16, 2021 18:26
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mlmp08 posted:If the thing stopping a coup is the military saying they’d rather not do a coup, you are in trouble. Isn’t that always what’s stopping a coup?
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Aug 16, 2021 18:26
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facialimpediment posted:The administration thought they had more time and the other alternative was basically: Adding on to the tweet, inviting the Taliban to Camp David for negotiations was a major warning signal to the Afghan government and military that we had no faith in them, that must have had a demoralizing effect. I'm not going to put all the blame on Trump for this, this is the fault of every president since Bush Jr, but that was a giant nail in the coffin. This was always going to be a poo poo show even under the best conditions, still hard to watch though.
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Aug 16, 2021 18:29
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hobbesmaster posted:Isn’t that always what’s stopping a coup? Not in the glorious kingdom of Saudi Arabia! There is certainly enough blame to go around, and quite a lot should go to Trump and company, but ultimately the responsibility for how this played out is on Biden and Co. I still think it was the right move - the execution was just dogshit. Ultimate responsibility lies with the Bush admin, who were so high on their own supply that they decoded to stick around and enrich their cronies and affiliates rather than prioritizing national security and American Lives. Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 18:34 on Aug 16, 2021 |
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Aug 16, 2021 18:32
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hobbesmaster posted:Isn’t that always what’s stopping a coup? Nah. Lots of times coups aren’t feasible because the whole of civilian government would fight it through whatever means they could, civil service would balk, civilians would rise up, the military would in-fight to stop it, etc.
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Aug 16, 2021 18:34
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Biden's both a) been president for eight months and b) supported the Afghan war and occupation as-is every step of his powerful career from day 1. Before he was Obama's VP he was one of the most hawkish dems in the Senate. Of course he is responsible for how hosed up this pullout is, on every level. To the extent he's just inheriting a bad situation, he's inheriting it from himself. The guy is the American foreign policy consensus, personified, and is also the current president executing it.
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Aug 16, 2021 18:40
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https://gcaptain.com/global-supply-chains-are-being-battered-by-fresh-covid-surges/ Ningbo also still has one of their terminals thats about 25% of its capacity closed. At this point, I would recommend doing your Christmas shopping now. Hoping I get there and sit at anchor for 2 weeks so I can call it good and not work for the rest of the year.
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Aug 16, 2021 18:46
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mlmp08 posted:Nah. Lots of times coups aren’t feasible because the whole of civilian government would fight it through whatever means they could, civil service would balk, civilians would rise up, the military would in-fight to stop it, etc. I should have been clearer in that I didn’t think the military was the only thing standing in the way, just their specific reaction.
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Aug 16, 2021 18:51
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As Nero Danced posted:Adding on to the tweet, inviting the Taliban to Camp David for negotiations was a major warning signal to the Afghan government and military that we had no faith in them, that must have had a demoralizing effect. I'm not going to put all the blame on Trump for this, this is the fault of every president since Bush Jr, but that was a giant nail in the coffin. My internal thought is that the sadly inevitable doesn't become any less sad when it actually happens. Best Friends posted:Biden's both a) been president for eight months and b) supported the Afghan war and occupation as-is every step of his powerful career from day 1. Before he was Obama's VP he was one of the most hawkish dems in the Senate. Of course he is responsible for how hosed up this pullout is, on every level. To the extent he's just inheriting a bad situation, he's inheriting it from himself. The guy is the American foreign policy consensus, personified, and is also the current president executing it. I agree. Good on him for finally doing it and resisting the urge to counter-invade (except for the airport takeover), but he owns the clusterfuck.
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Aug 16, 2021 18:58
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facialimpediment posted:My internal thought is that the sadly inevitable doesn't become any less sad when it actually happens. That's a very good way to put it that I was struggling to articulate, thank you.
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Aug 16, 2021 19:02
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facialimpediment posted:My internal thought is that the sadly inevitable doesn't become any less sad when it actually happens.
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Aug 16, 2021 19:03
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facialimpediment posted:My internal thought is that the sadly inevitable doesn't become any less sad when it actually happens. Don’t forget as VP Biden was opposed to the surge. He went along with it because Obama wanted it. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/14/world/14biden.html not saying it’s not his problem. but he was a voice of dissent from way back Suicide Watch fucked around with this message at 19:13 on Aug 16, 2021 |
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Aug 16, 2021 19:10
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The responsibility was going to fall on someone at some point and I don’t think there’s a way you can get this right But republicans would just ignore the troops in Afghanistan and cash defense bribes rather than deal with the optics of the inevitable.
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Aug 16, 2021 19:18
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Suicide Watch posted:Don’t forget as VP Biden was opposed to the surge. He went along with it because Obama wanted it. There's also an interesting callback to the Vietnam era when he wasn't in Congress for very long: https://twitter.com/jameshohmann/status/1427071612348735491 But he also voted for war with Iraq! So he's not quite a member of The Blob, but he sure plays footsie with it. The administration deserves credit for having a plan for the immediate evacuation of the embassy (remarkably smooth, considering), but they have absolutely hosed the allies/interpreters plan, even with a hollowed-out State Department, and the airport fly-outs are Very Not Good. The urgency just wasn't there for the latter, which probably could've been handled with severely expedited paperwork and some secrecy, so now they're building a railroad on the fly.
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Aug 16, 2021 19:24
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Suicide Watch posted:Don’t forget as VP Biden was opposed to the surge. He went along with it because Obama wanted it. Supposedly Biden also spoke against the Bin Laden raid. I remember reading those two pieces of information and thinking "oh I guess Obama picked Biden to just argue the contrary position for everything? Sounds like one of the better uses of a VP I guess"
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Aug 16, 2021 19:25
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Hyrax Attack! posted:Wonder how many planes departed Kabul in the last few weeks on one way flights using 1% of their cargo capacity to haul cabinet members and a few duffel bags full of cash. This is the part I 100% blame the current administration for. We could've had tens of thousands of people out of there.
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Aug 16, 2021 20:14
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In all the infinite multiverses there still isn't one in which the ANA doesn't fold like a lawn chair and this doesn't become a giant disaster. Like it was said, the minute we start talking mass evacs the government disintegrates and it becomes everyone for themselves. Anyone who had the wherewithal to fight a delaying action is long gone or long dead.
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Aug 16, 2021 20:38
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I don't see how anyone saw this going any different.
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Aug 16, 2021 20:41
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I honestly think that even if the taliban had been beaten, the afghan government would have collapsed within 5-10 years under its own incompetence. At best it exists on paper but in reality only in the main cities with tribal rulers de facto governing elsewhere. Most likely it would have splintered into warlords though.
PookBear fucked around with this message at 20:45 on Aug 16, 2021 |
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Aug 16, 2021 20:42
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PookBear posted:I honestly think that even if the taliban had been beaten, the afghan government would have collapsed within 5-10 years under its own incompetence. Honestly I guess the Iraqi model would have qualified as “mostly successful” if applied to Afghanistan.
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Aug 16, 2021 20:45
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Best Friends posted:It looks like military and executive leadership seemed to believe that the (former) Afghan government had some legitimacy and would stick around a while, to the point they seem completely blindsided. Or, everyone in leadership expected a delay of the pullout. https://twitter.com/MalcolmNance/status/1427245320732282880?s=19 https://twitter.com/MalcolmNance/status/1427216524746559490?s=19 https://twitter.com/MalcolmNance/status/1427216526235652101?s=19
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Aug 16, 2021 20:51
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Godholio posted:This is the part I 100% blame the current administration for. We could've had tens of thousands of people out of there. Yeah, I'm no expert but like others have said seems like a balance between hoping their government could keep it together and not announcing "you're doomed, to avoid your fate everyone who wants out head to Kabul" as why would anyone keep fighting at that point. I mean many of them didn't anyway but then Biden would be blamed for having zero faith and throwing their government under the bus at a time when on paper they still had control over large parts of the country.
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Aug 16, 2021 20:52
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https://twitter.com/politicsinsider/status/1427301096138153984?s=21
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Aug 16, 2021 21:12
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Pretty good own tbh.
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Aug 16, 2021 21:19
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That was a terrible speech.
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Aug 16, 2021 21:22
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worstpersonyouknow.jpg
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Aug 16, 2021 21:27
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ABC News is asking "How did the government miss the rapid overthrow so badly?". ...is this the same government that missed the threat of a bunch of rednecks attempting to overrun the Capitol and overthrow our own government seven months ago?
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Aug 16, 2021 21:29
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Dang, it's almost like giving the pan-global panopticon spy state didn't provide any benefit to the people at all!
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Aug 16, 2021 21:32
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Wasabi the J posted:Dang, it's almost like giving the pan-global panopticon spy state didn't provide any benefit to the people at all! Look its not our fault they're using some language other than English!
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Aug 16, 2021 21:36
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BIG HEADLINE posted:That was a terrible speech. There was a fair bit of "well... they didn't fight!" gaslighting, along with "well... a lot of the interpreters didn't want to leave!" nonsense. Also a lot of conflating the decision (getting out) with the how to do it (the current clusterfuck). But some news is something I hadn't heard - looks like Ghani was feeding the administration a load of bullshit, making the admin think they had more time, while also pulling poo poo like this: https://twitter.com/Rover829/status/1427354474159513608 The wires just noted that an inbound flight just came in, so hopefully the airfield gets people out to wrap this up soon and save a shitload of lives. Not holding my breath though.
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Aug 16, 2021 21:36
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facialimpediment posted:There was a fair bit of "well... they didn't fight!" gaslighting, along with "well... a lot of the interpreters didn't want to leave!" nonsense. Also a lot of conflating the decision (getting out) with the how to do it (the current clusterfuck). But some news is something I hadn't heard - looks like Ghani was feeding the administration a load of bullshit, making the admin think they had more time, while also pulling poo poo like this: “When I hosted President Ghani and Chairman Abdullah, at the White House in June, and again when I spoke by phone to Ghani in July, we had very frank conversations. We talked about how Afghanistan should prepare to fight their civil wars after the US military departed, to clean up the corruption in government, so the government could function for the Afghan people,” Biden said. He continued, “We talked extensively about the need for Afghan leaders to unite politically — they failed to do any of that. I also urged them to engage in diplomacy, to seek a political settlement with the Taliban. This advice was flatly refused. Mr. Ghani insisted that the Afghan forces would fight. And obviously he was wrong.” I don't blame any rank-and-file ANA/ANP soldier for cutting a deal with the local commanders and going home
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Aug 16, 2021 21:52
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Nick Soapdish posted:clean up the corruption in government, so the government could function for the Afghan people imagine us telling anyone to do this with a straight face
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Aug 16, 2021 21:57
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That Works posted:imagine us telling anyone to do this with a straight face The one good thing about being under an international spotlight all the time is that our corruption usually gets brought out for everyone to see. Actually doing anything about it is another story, but it’s not like we can hide it.
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Aug 16, 2021 22:11
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facialimpediment posted:There was a fair bit of "well... they didn't fight!" gaslighting, along with "well... a lot of the interpreters didn't want to leave!" nonsense. Also a lot of conflating the decision (getting out) with the how to do it (the current clusterfuck). But some news is something I hadn't heard - looks like Ghani was feeding the administration a load of bullshit, making the admin think they had more time, while also pulling poo poo like this: So theoretically if you become aware that a president is just holding things together long enough to secure his own ticket out wouldn't the right move be to supply some burly assistants to stand in front of the door and remind him that he has some other obligations?
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Aug 16, 2021 22:39
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That Works posted:imagine us telling anyone to do this with a straight face There isn't an equal comparison between the two. We're far from perfect, but basically everyone in the afghan officer corps paid a bribe to get in.
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Aug 16, 2021 22:44
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PookBear posted:There isn't an equal comparison between the two. We're far from perfect, but basically everyone in the afghan officer corps paid a bribe to get in. Is it really better to make policy decisions based on blood money from weapons manufacturers than it is to take blood money from heroin traffickers? The US is way less corrupt at the rank and file level, sure, but the sheer scale of US corruption is incomparable.
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Aug 16, 2021 22:54
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Fallom posted:So theoretically if you become aware that a president is just holding things together long enough to secure his own ticket out wouldn't the right move be to supply some burly assistants to stand in front of the door and remind him that he has some other obligations? How do you quickly disown thay situation though?
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Aug 16, 2021 23:46
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Grip it and rip it posted:How do you quickly disown thay situation though? Drop him off and leave him in a Taliban controlled area. Marshal Prolapse fucked around with this message at 00:06 on Aug 17, 2021 |
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Aug 16, 2021 23:50
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