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Typo posted:the former Kabul government btw, was brutal towards the taliban remnants when they were winning in the early 2000s yeah you are right there will be at least some amount of retribution demanded by rank and file Taliban but mass purging seems unlikely based on current behaviour there's always some executions though. someone has to pay the price for perceived crimes against the faction
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Aug 16, 2021 18:18
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Mooseontheloose posted:I have had a lot of raised eyebrows at the American media during this whole fiasco. They seem to want to fit a narrative here of Biden being responsible for the failures of Afghanistan OR that he will bare the consequences of it. And, I just don't see it fitting. I think the speed of the decline obviously caught them off guard but the fact the Taliban is at least showing that they aren't going to mess with Americans as they leave shows me there is SOME diplomatic measures going on between the two parties. I get that bothsides is the standard function of American media but it feels they are trying to force this to be an issue that Joe Biden is responsible for as President. Yeah if he comes out this afternoon and says something along the lines of "this was never going to be easy, but we still failed those who put themselves at risk to help us. This happened faster than any of us thought and we will do everything we can to get everyone out that wants out, but make no mistake this had to happen and was never going to be clean and tidy" and I think most Americans will shrug and say, yeah I'm okay with that.
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Aug 16, 2021 18:19
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There's no way to protect the Afghans that helped us. What we should do is give them asylum but half the country goes insane if we let a few thousand asylum seekers in, the country would burn down if we did what we should and let hundreds of thousands or millions of people from countries we destroyed emigrate.
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Aug 16, 2021 18:19
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Typo posted:Actually I think most of the ones who did it probably just wanted to get paid and feed their families in a country without much of an economy and the vast majority are in poverty, not out of some higher political idealism these are the ones I'm not sure about vis a vis Taliban punishment. Because, again, if they are being realistic, they understand this too, and it's not like these people flipped before Taliban was pushed out and US was only option in area. Could go either way. If this was ISIS city would be running red with blood by now but Taliban are much harder to quantify
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Aug 16, 2021 18:21
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Fuligin posted:alternatively you're desperate and need money, the way workers take dangerous jobs all over the world a lot of the hapless stoned-out weirdos stocking the afghani army were a collection of failsons who had, for various reasons, been banished out of their tribal enclaves
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Aug 16, 2021 18:23
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Ron Paul Atreides posted:these are the ones I'm not sure about vis a vis Taliban punishment. Because, again, if they are being realistic, they understand this too, and it's not like these people flipped before Taliban was pushed out and US was only option in area. Again, maybe i am being naive, but there is clearly SOME sort of agreement going on about this stuff between the Taliban and the US. Because while we know we joke about the Taliban winning, they don't really want to encourage the US military to gently caress around with them again. Part of the reason this push is happening was because the decreased US presence. They aren't stupid, they want to exist and it makes me think there is an agreement somewhere saying, don't do X, Y, and Z and we can in a few months get to normal diplomatic relations and unfreeze bank accounts.
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Aug 16, 2021 18:24
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Private Speech posted:Even then this from 2 weeks ago: They may have ordered their soldiers to be restrained but it's local commanders in the field and the tribal leaders that controll them.
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Aug 16, 2021 18:25
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https://twitter.com/TOLOnews/status/1427160940177461249?s=20
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Aug 16, 2021 18:25
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What's going on in that second video?
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Aug 16, 2021 18:28
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Residency Evil posted:What's going on in that second video? People are trying to force their way onto a passenger jet bound for Istanbul.
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Aug 16, 2021 18:29
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Mooseontheloose posted:Again, maybe i am being naive, but there is clearly SOME sort of agreement going on about this stuff between the Taliban and the US. Because while we know we joke about the Taliban winning, they don't really want to encourage the US military to gently caress around with them again. Part of the reason this push is happening was because the decreased US presence. They aren't stupid, they want to exist and it makes me think there is an agreement somewhere saying, don't do X, Y, and Z and we can in a few months get to normal diplomatic relations and unfreeze bank accounts. it comes down to how much central control Taliban leaders actually have over their commands, or if local animosity will win out. But, maybe I'm naive too, because I agree. So far, feels like they are going to go with the velvet glove rather than the iron fist. or perhaps some rougher fabric.
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Aug 16, 2021 18:36
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How is the US commentariat reacting to this? Maybe I just read too much twitter but here in the UK the newspaper column writer blue tick brigade, the worst people in the world, are reacting by blaming Jeremy Corbyn and the left, and also that they are so macho that if they were in charge THEY'D send American soldiers to pointless deaths on Afghan hilltops for another 20 years at least.
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Aug 16, 2021 19:16
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Bill Kristol is having a real one on Twitter. Neo-cons gonna bro-con.
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Aug 16, 2021 19:18
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mediadave posted:How is the US commentariat reacting to this? Based on my review of CNN, NBC and the NY Times, the US media is letting some of their commentators go hog wild about what a failure and tragedy this is (which seems like the best thing you can do for ratings), with an occasional piece getting into a deeper dive and admitting that Biden inherited a poo poo sandwich and is only one member of a chain of failure involving 20 years of missteps on the part of both parties. I'm not sure how long they'll harp on it. It'll depend on how well Biden's upcoming speech goes, I suppose. And one can hope that the scenes at Kabul Airport don't keep giving nightmare fuel, but I don't think the world's that kind. EDIT: this has been an eye-opener for me on how many journalists with the supposedly liberal prestige publications (like the New Yorker) seem completely captured by NGOs and think tanks. Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 19:22 on Aug 16, 2021 |
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Aug 16, 2021 19:19
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What a loving disaster. Twenty years!
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Aug 16, 2021 19:29
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Yeah this isn't going to cost Biden and the Democrats in general a single vote. Nobody cares, between the pandemic, the ongoing and accelerating climate crisis, and America falling apart socially and literally with infrastructure problems nobody has the metal room to care about even one more thing.
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Aug 16, 2021 19:38
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Magugu posted:Honestly, talking helps. These last few days I've had a rush of emotions coming back. Thats gotta be immensely frustrating that multiple people know how crappy the situation is, yet the political will to fix it isnt there so everyone just plays the part anyway since it pays the bills. Thanks for sharing your story man.
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Aug 16, 2021 19:42
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Numlock posted:Yeah this isn't going to cost Biden and the Democrats in general a single vote. you have to be almost 40 years old to not have spent the majority of your life with the afghanistan war ongoing anybody born after 1982 was a child when the war began we are so loving done that i somewhat agree with that this is not likely to hurt biden everybody was mentally checked out outside of a handful of colicky neoconservatives watching the sum total of their ideological Moment drift away like a sad fart
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Aug 16, 2021 19:45
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MAGA hats have made it to Afghanistan https://twitter.com/CollinFisher/status/1427341260390469632?s=20
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Aug 16, 2021 19:48
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Numlock posted:Yeah this isn't going to cost Biden and the Democrats in general a single vote. Yeah, it's gonna be the same thing when Taiwan and Ukraine fall.
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Aug 16, 2021 19:51
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Numlock posted:Yeah this isn't going to cost Biden and the Democrats in general a single vote. I really dunno man. Before today I would've agreed but the airport was/is a loving horrorshow. Dunno if this tanks Biden, probably not, but this is bad. worst thing in a long time, and more viscerally understandable than an abstract thing liken 750k dead from Covid.
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Aug 16, 2021 19:52
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Numlock posted:Yeah this isn't going to cost Biden and the Democrats in general a single vote. I agree with this for the most part, but I really hate that, because this should hurt Biden. This hosed up excuse of a evacuation and people FALLING TO THEIR DEATH trying to cling to evac planes is hosed up beyond measure. Biden said not a month ago something along the lines of, 'Nah Afghanistan isn't going to fall in a week you crazy', and his National Security Advisor's defense of what happened with the haphazard evacs was 'No biggie we use choppers all the time'. Let me repeat, people are so desperate they try to hang onto moving planes and are plummeting to their deaths.
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Aug 16, 2021 19:56
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Ron Paul Atreides posted:I really dunno man. Before today I would've agreed but the airport was/is a loving horrorshow. Dunno if this tanks Biden, probably not, but this is bad. worst thing in a long time, and more viscerally understandable than an abstract thing liken 750k dead from Covid. If I had to guess I would say that ultimately it will bring his popularity up. Americans haven't wanted to be in Afghanistan for ages. The public at large will shake their heads about the exit, but it won't stick in peoples' minds.
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Aug 16, 2021 19:56
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LostRook posted:Yeah, it's gonna be the same thing when Taiwan and Ukraine fall. Does the prospect of either of those two happening excite you?
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Aug 16, 2021 19:56
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Staluigi posted:you have to be almost 40 years old to not have spent the majority of your life with the afghanistan war ongoing That's me! Born 1982 and watched the towers fall on a dorm cafeteria tv my first semester at university. Whole world seemegly went nuts. My entire adult life we've been in Afghanistan, seeing us leave is only remarkable because it's like, wtf we can do that? Maybe tomorrow the moon will implode, who knows.
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Aug 16, 2021 19:57
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LostRook posted:Yeah, it's gonna be the same thing when Taiwan and Ukraine fall. Taiwan contains TSMC, which does better than half of global semiconductor production. I really can't imagine a scenario where they're invaded and the world doesn't go to Hell in the ensuing war.
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Aug 16, 2021 19:58
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China is already starting to take Afghanistan and how America treated their collaborators and work it into their propaganda:- https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1427267130467119104?s=21
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Aug 16, 2021 19:59
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How are u posted:If I had to guess I would say that ultimately it will bring his popularity up. Americans haven't wanted to be in Afghanistan for ages. The public at large will shake their heads about the exit, but it won't stick in peoples' minds. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if the underlying feelings about the people of Afghanistan amongst Dems and Republicans will overall be they are brown foreigners so who cares. Can't see and care about what awaits them if we aren't there, problem solved. e: That's not to say we should have stayed. It's more the immediate impact our haphazard exit strategy will have.
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Aug 16, 2021 20:00
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How are u posted:If I had to guess I would say that ultimately it will bring his popularity up. Americans haven't wanted to be in Afghanistan for ages. The public at large will shake their heads about the exit, but it won't stick in peoples' minds. He did what he had to do which was lay low and stay radio silent. Honestly, having a press conference seems like the worst thing he could do right now.
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Aug 16, 2021 20:01
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Ron Paul Atreides posted:I really dunno man. Before today I would've agreed but the airport was/is a loving horrorshow. Dunno if this tanks Biden, probably not, but this is bad. worst thing in a long time, and more viscerally understandable than an abstract thing liken 750k dead from Covid. This will hurt Biden, but him losing depends on his opponent. If it's Trump again it could be what tips it over, depending on what else happens. But people do still have terrible memory even for things that happen in the US, nevermind outside of it, so no guarantee this puts the nail in the coffin. If it's any other GOP candidate I don't think it will be enough, they're too tied to Trump and if they don't use him they'll probably sink themselves regardless of Biden's gaffs. The US is going to be more isolationist for the time being; too many problems at home, a lot of damage to alliances, and now a multi-decade record from both parties of being really bad at handling foreign campaigns. If I was Taiwan or Ukraine I would be planning to not have US support. Unless Russia or China screw up like Japan did and attack the US as part of their attack on those countries, I seriously doubt the US will try to save them.
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Aug 16, 2021 20:02
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Al-Saqr posted:China is already starting to take Afghanistan and how America treated their collaborators and work it into their propaganda:- If anybody thinks they're gonna be treated better by "genocide is cool and good, actually" China, well...
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Aug 16, 2021 20:02
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LostRook posted:He did what he had to do which was lay low and stay radio silent. Honestly, having a press conference seems like the worst thing he could do right now. this is to control the media narrative to make sure it doesn't roll into coward Biden let Afghanistan fall and why didn't he save everyone.
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Aug 16, 2021 20:04
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LostRook posted:He did what he had to do which was lay low and stay radio silent. Honestly, having a press conference seems like the worst thing he could do right now. Nah, with his people doing such a lovely job defending what's happening and the videos coming out, the administration is looking bad. He needs to get in front of this and explain why it's in fact a good thing people are falling to their deaths from planes.
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Aug 16, 2021 20:05
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America just simply made the Taliban stronger and more popular over the past twenty years.
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Aug 16, 2021 20:07
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Al-Saqr posted:China is already starting to take Afghanistan and how America treated their collaborators and work it into their propaganda:- i feel like thats whole other ball game of geopolitical horror show if china decides to basically invade and kill the poo poo out of taiwan. i think china will probbaly just keep trying to isolate taiwan and render them more politically unimportant. also i dont think Xi trying to turn chinas one party into a cult of personality will have much long term stability in that form. i guess we will see. BetterToRuleInHell posted:Nah, with his people doing such a lovely job defending what's happening and the videos coming out, the administration is looking bad. He needs to get in front of this and explain why it's in fact a good thing people are falling to their deaths from planes. yeah. some of them are saying the right things. "we did the right thing leaving and was always gonna be a horror show like this BUT we didnt know the taliban would "blitzkrieg" the country". the issue is a mix of the videos(some poor afgani dudes dying because they thought they could do uncharted 3 stunts out of the country out of pure desperation doesnt help your case) but also just that the media/pundint class is mad that they were wrong about how this would end and feel lied too(true and false).
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Aug 16, 2021 20:17
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punk rebel ecks posted:America just simply made the Taliban stronger and more popular over the past twenty years. https://asiafoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/2019_Afghan_Survey_Full-Report.pdf quote:This year, the proportion of respondents who have a lot or a little sympathy with the Taliban is 13.4%, similar to 2018 (15.9%). Respondents who say they have no sympathy with the Taliban have increased almost 3 percentage points, to 85.1%, since 2018 (82.4%). Urban respondents (88.6%) are more inclined than rural respondents (83.9%) to claim to have no sympathy at all. Respondents from Zabul (56.1%) and Uruzgan (50.5%) express the highest levels of sympathy with the Taliban. Despite being the highest, however, sympathy for the Taliban among Zabul respondents is still 20 percentage points lower than the 2018 level of 65.9%.
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Aug 16, 2021 20:36
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Taper is saying that Biden ignored warnings this was going to happen this quickly and its his fault for not listening to the intelligence and that the videos coming out are worse than the images than Saigon. So, take that for what you will.
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Aug 16, 2021 20:48
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Mooseontheloose posted:Taper is saying that Biden ignored warnings this was going to happen this quickly and its his fault for not listening to the intelligence and that the videos coming out are worse than the images than Saigon. How important and/or respected is Tapper? I don't watch CNN regularly.
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Aug 16, 2021 20:50
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Mooseontheloose posted:Taper is saying that Biden ignored warnings this was going to happen this quickly and its his fault for not listening to the intelligence and that the videos coming out are worse than the images than Saigon. I have seen reporters from various orgs. say that the USG as a whole can't seriously tell people they didn't know this could happen as they were talking to plenty of people who said they were indeed warning the government about this for the past few weeks.
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Aug 16, 2021 20:52
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Good news is Taliban are apparently more interested in governing than killing for no reason. Bad news is they get really upset if you don’t show up for work. On the whole though, I see it as far better than indiscriminate slaughter. From the NY Times: A Week Into Taliban Rule, One City’s Glimpse of What the Future May Hold quote:The civil servants who could fix those problems were hiding at home, terrified of the Taliban. So the insurgent-commander-turned-mayor summoned some to his new office, to persuade them to return to work. nelson fucked around with this message at 20:56 on Aug 16, 2021 |
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Aug 16, 2021 20:52
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