(Thread IKs:
ZShakespeare)
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https://twitter.com/ScottBilleck/status/1428385039985692673
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Aug 19, 2021 21:20
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| # ? Jun 6, 2024 13:21 |
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Kraftwerk posted:Tory majority if an election were held today due to vote splitting. Either this persists or the progressives have their come to Jesus moment with Trudeau at the last minute. Close, would be a Con Minority, I think the Cons need to push 32.5-33.5% of the national vote for a majority just because of how much of their support is concentration in Alberta and the Prairies. In this case it would probably be another Liberal minority after the Conservatives fail a confidence vote. 
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Aug 19, 2021 21:23
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Kraftwerk posted:Tory majority if an election were held today due to vote splitting. On what basis are you predicting a majority from 29% of the vote, besides perhaps throwing out that poll as soon as you see that it's online only?
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Aug 19, 2021 21:24
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Kraftwerk posted:Tory majority if an election were held today due to vote splitting. Either this persists or the progressives have their come to Jesus moment with Trudeau at the last minute. That's a mighty broad prediction from a single poll that shows the Liberals losing less support than the Tories. infernal machines fucked around with this message at 21:29 on Aug 19, 2021 |
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Aug 19, 2021 21:24
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Can we change the thread title to: PPC - N/A
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Aug 19, 2021 21:28
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I mean, sure that poll would look bad if the Liberals reneged on their promise to overhaul the antiquidated FPTP election system, but now that we have... hang on, I'm being told that the Liberals may be facing the consequences of their inaction. I'm either going to vote NDP, or barring that, I'm tempted to write in a vote for "Nutz, Sukdez"
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Aug 19, 2021 21:36
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Randalor posted:I mean, sure that poll would look bad if the Liberals reneged on their promise to overhaul the antiquidated FPTP election system, but now that we have... hang on, I'm being told that the Liberals may be facing the consequences of their inaction. https://twitter.com/screaminbutcalm/status/1105577845642878976
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Aug 19, 2021 21:42
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eXXon posted:On what basis are you predicting a majority from 29% of the vote, besides perhaps throwing out that poll as soon as you see that it's online only? I'm exaggerating the majority. But I can't see enough liberal votes break to the NDP in sufficient numbers to matter on a seat by seat basis. Here's a very broad example of what I'm talking about. If current polling patterns persist and people start feeling like the Liberals aren't campaigning well, the trends will probably skew like this demonstrative example: Average 905 Ontario Riding Last Election: Liberal: 23500 Conservative: 19400 NDP: 2650 My 2021 Election Projection: Liberal: 20,000 Conservative: 21400 NDP: 4150 Now take this effect and rinse and repeat for places like Etobicoke Centre, Markham Unionville etc etc. That's what I think happens every time people get tired of the libs. The progressives park their vote with the NDP either because they have a really charismatic leader (Jagmeet/Jack) or because they think the Liberal party has failed them and they can't conscionably vote for them anymore. Meanwhile there's a lot of upper middle class HENRY types in these ridings who are content with the government keeping their taxes to a minimum and will gladly vote Conservative if they moderate their message slightly and the libs gently caress up badly enough. You can't escape this as long as the Tories have the prairies locked down. Their parochial dog whistle attitudes play well with all the white people who live outside the major cities in places like Barrie or Huron so most of the big low density areas are also a permanent lock for the Tories... So again the NDP's victory in my opinion depends on how much they can sway Alberta, Manitoba, Coastal BC, Hamilton, the Downtown Toronto ridings and Quebec to give them just enough to either get a minority or a squeaker of a majority with the progressive enthusiasm giving a few 905 ridings to the NDP. Without Quebec and the Prairies an NDP gain of 5-10% just gives you a tory government.
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Aug 19, 2021 21:53
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Man, I had actually almost forgotten about the whole WE thing. https://twitter.com/CANADALAND/status/1428455155075362822?s=20
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Aug 19, 2021 22:12
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InfiniteZero posted:Can we change the thread title to: Not an empty quote. Also just lmao at the idea of a party winning a majority with 29% or 30% of the vote, if that isn't enough for people to want to scrap FPTP then we are doomed.
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Aug 19, 2021 22:15
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Randalor posted:I mean, sure that poll would look bad if the Liberals reneged on their promise to overhaul the antiquidated FPTP election system, but now that we have... hang on, I'm being told that the Liberals may be facing the consequences of their inaction. Unfortunately this is fine with them. The Liberals would much rather keep trading spots with the Conservatives than work with other parties. That might make things slightly better for the less fortunate, and they can't have that.
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Aug 19, 2021 22:17
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Randalor posted:I'm either going to vote NDP, or barring that, I'm tempted to write in a vote for "Nutz, Sukdez" Is Suq Madiq a dual citizen? That might cause some (frankly unwarranted) criticism on the campaign trail.
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Aug 19, 2021 22:28
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Entropic posted:Man, I had actually almost forgotten about the whole WE thing. I love a lot of things about Canadaland, but my favorite thing is that Jesse seems to have as much contempt for the Kielburgers as I do. I'm actually headed to a bar he frequents now, if I see him I'm going to introduce myself and buy him a beer.
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Aug 20, 2021 01:05
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Ctv ran a story on eastern Ontario restaurants struggling with labour shortages and I really can't bring myself to give a crap. The restaurant industry pushed itself into the slimmest profit margins and now they're feeling the sting because workers don't want to take lower wages and crap jobs that rely on tips to make ends meet.
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Aug 20, 2021 01:36
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Arc Hammer posted:Ctv ran a story on eastern Ontario restaurants struggling with labour shortages and I really can't bring myself to give a crap. The restaurant industry pushed itself into the slimmest profit margins and now they're feeling the sting because workers don't want to take lower wages and crap jobs that rely on tips to make ends meet. There's such an extreme double standard in our society with how government policy, media, just about everything deals with this sort of thing. Small businesses struggling for any reason? Roll out more subsidies and grants and tax breaks, loosen labour laws, temporary foreign workers, legal child labour, whatever it takes to help these struggling businesses pay their rent and keep the lights on. Normal worker in the same situation? gently caress em, they should move or learn to code or get a 2nd job. More protections for renters? No way, landlords are small business owners who need our protections. Think of the struggling small landlord. Small businesses always fail because taxes were too high, wages are too high, too much red tape. It's never ever ever the fault of the business owner, they're always the victim, they're always people the community and government failed to correctly support.
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Aug 20, 2021 01:56
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Small businesses need to be lionized by governments and absolved of their own incompetence because the alternative is admitting that most jobs are run by megacorps that give no fucks about national boundaries and we're more beholden to brands than we are to cultural borders. It was really loving rich reading about restaurants wanting a bailout or a subsidy from the government because the feds accidentally did a good thing with CERB and gave millions of people something closer to a living wage and that made it harder for restaurants to retain workers. Businesses that refuse to read the loving room deserve to crash. Arc Hammer fucked around with this message at 02:15 on Aug 20, 2021 |
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Aug 20, 2021 02:12
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DariusLikewise posted:Close, would be a Con Minority, I think the Cons need to push 32.5-33.5% of the national vote for a majority just because of how much of their support is concentration in Alberta and the Prairies. In this case it would probably be another Liberal minority after the Conservatives fail a confidence vote. It wouldn't be a conservative minority. First chance to form government goes to the incumbent prime minister, so they don't even have the chance to fail a confidence vote. There's not really a feasible seat arrangement that leads to a conservative minority unless there's some sort of chaos situation where the greens can prop up the conservatives and decide to go a little wacky. Throwing the liberals under the bus to put the conservatives in charge isn't really a feasible thing for the NDP unless something insane gets traded. The conservatives can't reach out to the Bloc for support for ideological reasons. Barring something really really unusual, the only thing that leads to a conservative throne speech is a majority.
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Aug 20, 2021 02:23
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Baronjutter posted:Normal worker in the same situation? gently caress em, they should move or learn to code or get a 2nd job. More protections for renters? No way, landlords are small business owners who need our protections. Think of the struggling small landlord. My “favourite” thing about this is everyone being told for years and years and years to “get a better job” instead of getting a raise or benefits or anything. Now those people (lots of people I personally know*) have gotten better jobs, they’re freaking out saying “how dare you not want to work your lovely abusive job anymore”! Make up your loving mind, assholes, you can’t have it both ways! *CERB actually helped two of my best friends escape the cycle of poverty by allowing them time to get certifications for health care in long-term care homes while not having to worry about working to pay the bills. Not only are they no longer struggling to stay afloat they’re also working in a sector that NEEDS people desperately. Basic Universal Income NOW. ChickenDoodle fucked around with this message at 02:49 on Aug 20, 2021 |
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Aug 20, 2021 02:45
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This looks really loving greasy and either this candidacy is dead in the water or she needs to be on the phone to a lawyer right the gently caress now: https://twitter.com/TrueNorthCentre/status/1428507330027655171
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Aug 20, 2021 02:48
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I'm going to start from the assumption you'd need to be bat-poo poo crazy to run as a Liberal in Calgary. Everything from there is just trying to stand out from the crowd.
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Aug 20, 2021 04:07
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Hexigrammus posted:I'm going to start from the assumption you'd need to be bat-poo poo crazy to run as a Liberal in Calgary. Everything from there is just trying to stand out from the crowd. It's like the ANDP. You need to remember that they're Albertans first and NDP or Liberal second.
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Aug 20, 2021 04:16
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PT6A posted:This looks really loving greasy and either this candidacy is dead in the water or she needs to be on the phone to a lawyer right the gently caress now: There's also this. https://twitter.com/MariekeWalsh/status/1428526176549625856
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Aug 20, 2021 05:10
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No one has poo poo posting alts? What the gently caress kind of society is this?
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Aug 20, 2021 05:21
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DariusLikewise posted:Hell yeah maximum chaos polling Ooo, I've seen this movie before. Hell yeah, it's Orange Mirage time again baby. That point in every federal election cycle where voters start telling pollsters they're voting NDP for about five weeks and then get scared and go rushing back to the Liberals at the last possible second because [insert self-serving reason here] and Trudeau wins again. Charlie Brown is never going to kick that football.
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Aug 20, 2021 06:43
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nine-gear crow posted:Ooo, I've seen this movie before. Hell yeah, it's Orange Mirage time again baby. That point in every federal election cycle where voters start telling pollsters they're voting NDP for about five weeks and then get scared and go rushing back to the Liberals at the last possible second because [insert self-serving reason here] and Trudeau wins again. People fuckin hate that contemptible haircut, O'Toole is a joke, and Jagmeet has grown on the zoomers, who are justifiably panicking about the future rn and could easily tip the balance Not a prediction, it's still the less likely option, but... The tides are right.
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Aug 20, 2021 06:51
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Franks Happy Place posted:Not a prediction, it's still the less likely option, but... The tides are right. I hope. Unfortunately all I'm seeing are rotting fish carcasses, dog turds, and toxic algae. HackensackBackpack posted:There's also this. AHAHAHAHAHAHHAAAA! If she gets more than a smattering of votes from dyslexics and lost Easterners it will be a very interesting election.
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Aug 20, 2021 07:22
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She's clearly thinking ahead, that tweet will be very popular when she runs in a riding outside of Alberta
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Aug 20, 2021 07:36
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'fit in or gently caress off' is some fashy bullshit but hey, directing it at Albertans instead of hearing it from them is nice enough.
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Aug 20, 2021 08:50
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That's certainly a thing to say as a candidate in Alberta. Albertans hate hearing that they're not the bestest most important province, so I think I'll support her saying this ridiculous poo poo. Countdown to "economic engine" references begins now.
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Aug 20, 2021 13:34
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So what are the chances the greens just get completely wiped out due to their current infighting both eroding any confidence in their voters and distracting them from properly campaigning?
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Aug 20, 2021 13:57
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Spek posted:So what are the chances the greens just get completely wiped out due to their current infighting both eroding any confidence in their voters and distracting them from properly campaigning? Very likely. Also, they're not being distracted from properly campaigning. Their actual strategy is to not campaign and go all in on Paul's riding in Toronto. They're goners.
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Aug 20, 2021 13:59
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HackensackBackpack posted:There's also this. That's a very politically stupid thing to say if you're running for office in Alberta, or planning to do so. It's not wrong, though. The anti-vaxx thing is loving nuts.
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Aug 20, 2021 14:13
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nine-gear crow posted:Ooo, I've seen this movie before. Hell yeah, it's Orange Mirage time again baby. That point in every federal election cycle where voters start telling pollsters they're voting NDP for about five weeks and then get scared and go rushing back to the Liberals at the last possible second because [insert self-serving reason here] and Trudeau wins again. Honestly I think the funniest outcome of this election would be the Liberals just spinning their tires and ending up in another tight minority because people were either pissed at Trudeau for calling a pandemic election or stayed home because it's a pandemic election.
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Aug 20, 2021 15:20
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DariusLikewise posted:Honestly I think the funniest outcome of this election would be the Liberals just spinning their tires and ending up in another tight minority because people were either pissed at Trudeau for calling a pandemic election or stayed home because it's a pandemic election. Yeah, Trudeau hosed up. This spring would have been a better timing for him, when everyone was hyped up that vaccines were becoming available to all. Now, nobody gives a poo poo anymore and are just pissed at him and fed up with anything covid. I think he'll end up with a minority again. This election is a waste of everyone's time.
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Aug 20, 2021 15:29
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Lol Derek Sloan has apparently decided to run in Banff-Airdrie this year against Blake Richards.
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Aug 20, 2021 15:38
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nine-gear crow posted:That point in every federal election cycle where voters start telling pollsters they're voting NDP for about five weeks and then get scared and go rushing back to the Liberals at the last possible second because [insert self-serving reason here] and Trudeau wins again. Sometimes that self-serving reason is that the NDP candidate is floating around 15% in the polls and not voting Liberal ends up putting some Conservative fuckhead in power instead. poo poo on people who do this all you want: the problem is that the very thought of letting many CPC members into power feels emergent. I know it's popular around here to say "oh the Liberals are the same thing as the CPCs" but are you not old enough to remember I don't know Stephen loving Harper? Sure, lesser of two evils is absolutely true and everything but the gap in evil (sometimes moreso in specific ridings) is pretty large.
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Aug 20, 2021 16:04
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The farther he gets from Ontario the less chance I have to see his stupid face or hear his stupid unbaked opinions, so this is good
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Aug 20, 2021 16:04
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flakeloaf posted:The farther he gets from Ontario the less chance I have to see his stupid face or hear his stupid unbaked opinions, so this is good Okay, so here's my issue with that: the rest of the country bitches about how conservative and stupid Alberta is, and a huge problem with that is you keep loving sending us your conservative moron rejects (both politicians and voters). Kevin J. Johnson, Sloan, Kenney, Harper, all these thick fucks aren't actually from here! You produce them, and then they wander out here and make our nights long and our days sour.
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Aug 20, 2021 16:20
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If we had the power to send him anywhere, it'd be into a cement crate under ten metres of water. He left of his own accord, and went as though pulled by some kind of rear end in a top hat magnetism to the apparent center of his messed-up little universe. What is it about Alberta that makes it seem so powerfully attractive to chuds, what part of fixing that is my job and what are my KPIs here? I don't unwant to help, exactly, I just didn't know that task list existed
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Aug 20, 2021 16:26
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| # ? Jun 6, 2024 13:21 |
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Arc Hammer posted:Lol Derek Sloan has apparently decided to run in Banff-Airdrie this year against Blake Richards. He's running as an Independent too, so there's two possibilities and one probability: He's either making a display (and burning his money) to try to get courted by one of the conservative parties out here, or his brain worms have gotten so bad he thinks he can make a go of it in that riding without any party support. The probability is that between him, the Con incumbent, the candidates from the PPC (...what?), and the Maverick Party (just loving LOL) the vote could be split enough for the Liberals to get the seat, but that's a long shot. Blake Richards won last time with 71% of the vote, and he's lasted 5 elections. So far, no NDP or Green candidates have put their names forward but it's still early. The riding includes Cochrane and Canmore too. Population and engagement wise Cochrane and Airdrie skew it rightward, while Banff and Canmore are more heavily left. But I'm living for Sloan to be BTFO and sent packing back east.
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Aug 20, 2021 16:39
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