|
liz posted:https://twitter.com/nbcnewsgraphics/status/1430194833465954312?s=21 Why is this graph showing California declining? That contradicts NY Times, which has 14-day cases at +19%
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 02:09
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 21:54 |
|
|
ShadowHawk posted:Why is this graph showing California declining? That contradicts NY Times, which has 14-day cases at +19%
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 02:11
|
|
|
Nessus posted:It's showing proportional rates of increase. So if California's case growth is down to 19% in the last two weeks, vs whatever it was last month, etc.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 02:15
|
|
|
Nessus posted:It's showing proportional rates of increase. So if California's case growth is down to 19% in the last two weeks, vs whatever it was last month, etc. Ha. It’s the Nate Silver first derivative argument again.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 02:18
|
|
|
liz posted:https://twitter.com/nbcnewsgraphics/status/1430194833465954312?s=21 I thought the Dakotas hit herd immunity in their massive outbreak last year, obviously not. I wonder what the rates of infections are in people who already had covid and what the prognosis is.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 02:51
|
|
|
So just had a thought, there's got to be someone out there that has caught covid in every wave right but still survived right?
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 02:52
|
|
|
Zil posted:So just had a thought, there's got to be someone out there that has caught covid in every wave right but still survived right?
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 02:57
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/showmetheyamz/status/1429874245069262853?s=20
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 03:05
|
|
|
gay picnic defence posted:I thought the Dakotas hit herd immunity in their massive outbreak last year, obviously not. I wonder what the rates of infections are in people who already had covid and what the prognosis is.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 03:14
|
|
|
Zil posted:So just had a thought, there's got to be someone out there that has caught covid in every wave right but still survived right? ah so like that one nuke guy. except this is biology which means they're a prime candididate for SCIENCEING to see if we can make a super vac from them.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 03:23
|
|
|
Hollismason posted:What's the difference between a pandemic and a endemic. When they say Coronavirus is endemic, what the gently caress is that suppose to mean? How are u posted:It means it's here to stay, no eradication. No it certainly does not, Jesus wept. Smallpox was endemic in the US. Chickenpox was endemic in the US. Measles were endemic in the US. Mumps were endemic in the US. Polio was endemic in the US. Hookworms were endemic in the US. The list goes on and on and on and on. A disease is "endemic" when it has been consistently present in a population long enough that it settles into predictable periodic outbreak patterns. For diseases with life-long immunity like chickenpox, this meant seasonal infection of children who hadn't yet been exposed. For diseases like cold-causing viruses and seasonal influenza, that means that they consist of multiple strains/variants that rotate circulation through populations as prior immunity wanes. The boundary between "endemic" and "epidemic" can be fuzzy for emerging diseases, because it may not be obvious what the long-term steady state for a disease agent might be. That's not the case for COVID, though: SARS-COV-2 is still mutating new variants and we likely have a ways to go before it develops the full extent of it's steady-state genetic variation. Anyone claiming SARS-CoV-2 is endemic anywhere is full of poo poo. We're going to have ongoing epidemics for quite a while before we get to a steady-state ecosystem, and we don't know what that will be. For now, "endemic" wrt COVID is mostly this: John_A_Tallon posted:It means they can declare failure, and that it's not their problem anymore because no politician can be expected to solve an "endemic" issue. Even though previous politicians have mustered the will to run the polio vaccination program, a solution explicitly for an endemic issue. E: Just in case it's not obvious, there's nothing inherent about endemic diseases that make them less susceptible to intervention or even elimination or eradication. Stickman fucked around with this message at 04:50 on Aug 25, 2021 |
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 04:44
|
|
|
So what does the future hold now? I'm seriously asking. Are we (non-shitheads) going to be masking forever? Is the body count going to stay this high every year forever? Is herd immunity even possible if 100% of the population gets vaccinated but it doesn't provide sterilizing immunity?
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 05:41
|
|
|
Woodsy Owl posted:So what does the future hold now? I'm seriously asking. Are we (non-shitheads) going to be masking forever? Is the body count going to stay this high every year forever? Is herd immunity even possible if 100% of the population gets vaccinated but it doesn't provide sterilizing immunity? Yes. Get a respirator. Yes. Invest in crematoriums. It's a growth industry. No. Delta is so infectious that with present vaccine effectiveness it is impossible. Get vaccinated anyway! Anything that slows this down is good!
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 05:59
|
|
|
Woodsy Owl posted:So what does the future hold now? I'm seriously asking. Are we (non-shitheads) going to be masking forever? Is the body count going to stay this high every year forever? Is herd immunity even possible if 100% of the population gets vaccinated but it doesn't provide sterilizing immunity? NSW Chief Health Officer said yesterday that we could be looking at needing masks and vaccine passports in high risk situations for years. Most Australian epidemiologists seem to be saying that there's no level of vaccination at which we can abandon all restrictions entirely, but high levels of vaccination will reduce the amount of restrictions necessary to keep covid under control. There's a lot of data we just don't have yet. The data seems to indicate that boosters are going to be necessary after the initial doses, but we have no idea at the moment how long those boosters will extend protection. It's all very much a work in progress at the moment. Lolie fucked around with this message at 06:03 on Aug 25, 2021 |
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 06:00
|
|
|
Woodsy Owl posted:So what does the future hold now? I'm seriously asking. Are we (non-shitheads) going to be masking forever? Is the body count going to stay this high every year forever? Is herd immunity even possible if 100% of the population gets vaccinated but it doesn't provide sterilizing immunity? As much as they've decreased from their peak, vaccinations are still making significant progress. The US is currently giving 5 times as many vaccine doses every day as newly recorded infections, which gives some hope even in a "everyone gets it eventually" scenario
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 06:27
|
|
|
ShadowHawk posted:The US is currently giving 5 times as many vaccine doses every day as newly recorded infections, which gives some hope even in a "everyone gets it eventually" scenario Recorded infections, which means that the real numbers are approximately the same, because the CDC’s estimate of ascertainment ratio is four point two.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 06:33
|
|
|
ShadowHawk posted:Like a forest fire, eventually the virus will burn through most of the "fuel". Even in a place like India where spread was almost completely uncontrolled the waves died out. Most of the population there is no longer naiive to the virus, meaning subsequent waves will be more mitigated due to at least partial immunity. Delta devastated areas that already had 80%+ seroprevalence in India. There is absolutely no guarantee that future variants won't be able to do the same thing, nor is there a guarantee that acquired disease protection is long-lasting against the same variant (though it is possible, even likely). ShadowHawk posted:As much as they've decreased from their peak, vaccinations are still making significant progress. The US is currently giving 5 times as many vaccine doses every day as newly recorded infections, which gives some hope even in a "everyone gets it eventually" scenario What's your over-under on the asymptote this time. Stickman fucked around with this message at 06:41 on Aug 25, 2021 |
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 06:37
|
|
|
Woodsy Owl posted:So what does the future hold now? I'm seriously asking. Are we (non-shitheads) going to be masking forever? Is the body count going to stay this high every year forever? Is herd immunity even possible if 100% of the population gets vaccinated but it doesn't provide sterilizing immunity? No one really knows, the virus could mutate tomorrow into a more benign form that outcompetes the dangerous variants or we could be in for super fun times as it annually mutates into something that evades the previous vaccines. We won't need masks forever. Masks are a useful tool when transmission frequency is rising; like vaccination, it diminishes the ability of the virus to spread. As the virus becomes endemic you'll have periodic outbreaks in between lulls where it is relatively safe to eat at a restaurant or whatever The body count will not stay this high forever. The vaccines have all proven to be extremely effective at preventing hospitalization and death. The vaccinated population continues to grow, and the unvaccinated population continues to shrink. The unvaccinated make up the vast majority of the deaths right now, and you can only die once. In places with very high vaccination rates, such as King County, WA, the case rate is just barely starting to flatten out, but despite such a long period of exponential growth in cases King County's been experiencing roughly 2 covid deaths per day since March. Their 14 day average is currently 19. Herd immunity is possible without sterilizing immunity, all that matters is that transmission rates fall enough to eventually end the chain of infection. Right now our biggest problem is that most children are not eligible for vaccination, but that will eventually change. We won't reach herd immunity anyway though; too many chuds refuse to get vaccinated and will become a permanent reservoir for covid-19. The virus will be endemic like measles, most people will be vaccinated against it and will avoid the worst symptoms and it will occasionally tear through unvaccinated groups QuarkJets fucked around with this message at 06:48 on Aug 25, 2021 |
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 06:45
|
|
|
It would be nice if masks became a common an acceptable part of daily life, especially around the start of flu/cold/rsv/COVID seasons. Of course, like the dumb Westerners we are we've tied mask wearing to a state of emergency and politics, so pretty much no way in hell that's happening. Just look at how rabid the MSM got when epidemiologists said they would still wear masks after vaccination!QuarkJets posted:Herd immunity is possible without sterilizing immunity, all that matters is that transmission rates fall enough to eventually end the chain of infection. Right now our biggest problem is that most children are not eligible for vaccination, but that will eventually change. We won't reach herd immunity anyway though; too many chuds refuse to get vaccinated and will become a permanent reservoir for covid-19. The virus will be endemic like measles, most people will be vaccinated against it and will avoid the worst symptoms and it will occasionally tear through unvaccinated groups The problem with SARS-CoV-2 is that it's ability to mutate + recombination make it closer to influenza than measles. The big question is durability of acquired immunity to variants, because once we have a large number of strains roaming the world we could easily end up in a situation where each "season" is just a new rolling variant that population immunity has dropped enough for ("seasons" may or may not be yearly). Stickman fucked around with this message at 07:13 on Aug 25, 2021 |
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 06:48
|
|
|
Bardeh posted:Speaking as a parent to an 8 year old, that's a pretty glib way of dismissing just how important school (and particularly socialisation) is to kids. Kids don't just go to school to learn stuff and facts, they learn how to make friends, to encounter people they wouldn't otherwise have, etc. It's also the case that for plenty of kids, the structure of school is something they can cling to when their home life is chaotic or troubled. I am very pro-school but this is just daft, do you really think kids just didn't make friends before the advent of grade school? Schools are important, but their temporary absence is not as much of a catastrophe as a ton of dead kids.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 06:58
|
|
|
i think covid gave me weird hair. usually i can just break it apart but its almost like fishing line atm.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 07:17
|
|
|
Anne Whateley posted:False positives are much less common than false negatives. False negatives are extremely common with the rapid test. Sorry Do we know why the rapid tests give so many false negatives? Is a better rapid test possible? I had two negative rapids and a negative PCR which was administered because I'd had cold symptoms for about a week. Can I be assured that it really was just a cold or is it possible the PCR was falsely negative too?
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 08:54
|
|
|
boquiabierta posted:Do we know why the rapid tests give so many false negatives? Is a better rapid test possible? PCR tests are accurate enough that you shouldn't be sweating 3 negatives, including 2 tests known to be less accurate than a PCR.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 08:58
|
|
|
I mean, orange juice does have a lot of sugar in it, if you care about sugar intake or your teeth, but, horsepaste.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 08:59
|
|
|
False negative PCRs are largely a matter of timing. rear end in a top hat plutocrats who get tested daily, rain or shine, in sickness and in health, aren’t going to have infections that slip under the radar. A person who’s tested once, a week into symptoms, may well have passed the window of maximum viral snot and test negative, even if they have been suffering of COVID all week. One of the reasons that the “kids don’t get COVID” myth was established and persisted is that children (on average) have a smaller window during which virus can be found in their upper respiratory tracts, or at least that was true with Alpha. I don’t know if or how Delta has shifted the numbers on that.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 09:03
|
|
|
What are false negative rapids due to?
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 09:06
|
|
|
boquiabierta posted:Do we know why the rapid tests give so many false negatives? Is a better rapid test possible? The advantage of antigen testing is that it’s very simple and doesn’t require any kind of heating to work, whereas PCR requires precise temperature cycling and generally other fancy instrumentation bits that make it less amenable to portability. That’s why antigen tests are still useful even though they’re less sensitive: you can do a ton of them, cheaply, and without any special machines, and their positives are almost always correct. There are better rapid tests available already (eg Cue Health’s and Lucira’s) but they are a lot more expensive than antigen tests. False negatives come from there not being enough material to detect. It could be because the sampling was poor, or because the test just isn’t sensitive enough to pick up what’s there. Because of the reasons I mentioned, the detection limit for PCR is much lower (ie requires fewer copies) than it is for antigen tests. But it’s still high enough that a person may not be shedding enough virus during the sampling for the test to do its thing. It sounds like you’re probably negative, but without multiple negative PCRs done over a period of like 10-14 days post-symptoms, you can’t really be sure. The virus is just a pain in the rear end that way. Zugzwang fucked around with this message at 09:16 on Aug 25, 2021 |
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 09:14
|
|
|
^^ Thanks for explaining this!
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 09:21
|
|
|
If I can put on a chemistry hat for a moment, the “PCR” in a PCR test exponentially multiplies the RNA present in the sample. Rapid tests don’t do that. They don’t have a multiplication step. Their components have to react with the parts of the virus initially present in the sample It’s like how seeing a tiger in the dark gets much easier if you light amplifiers, i.e. night vision goggles.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 09:22
|
|
|
Platystemon posted:If I can put on a chemistry hat for a moment, the “PCR” in a PCR test exponentially multiplies the RNA present in the sample. Whereas in PCR, you’ll turn those 100 copies into billions+ copies, and that’s comically easy to see even with fairly unsophisticated instrumentation. A cousin of PCR, LAMP, even makes enough DNA (orders of magnitude more than PCR) to see the magnesium pyrophosphate byproduct by eye, no other reporting molecule needed.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 09:36
|
|
|
Stickman posted:What's your over-under on the asymptote this time. Vaccines are going to increasingly be "required" I would also guess that children will have a lower holdout rate than adults, as they can get a vaccine if any one of their parents (or self, in some cases) desires it.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 11:41
|
|
|
 escalatedquickly.jpg
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 12:20
|
|
|
Woodsy Owl posted:So what does the future hold now? I'm seriously asking. Are we (non-shitheads) going to be masking forever? Is the body count going to stay this high every year forever? Is herd immunity even possible if 100% of the population gets vaccinated but it doesn't provide sterilizing immunity? If the last 12 months has taught us anything, I predict the virus repeatedly sweeps through the unvaccinated segment of the population, eventually producing an escape variant as lethal as MERS, and as contagious as measles.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 12:47
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1430495095934095362?s=21
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 12:49
|
|
|
Dick Jones posted:If the last 12 months has taught us anything, I predict the virus repeatedly sweeps through the unvaccinated segment of the population, eventually producing an escape variant as lethal as MERS, and as contagious as measles. This paper from March is like “Hey SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 are pretty closely related viruses, but SARS is way more deadly. What are the biochemical reasons for that?” quote:We found that SARS-CoV-2 protein 6 was less efficient in suppressing interferon signalling than the homologous protein 6 in SARS-CoV. It is relevant to consider this finding in the context of onward evolution of SARS-CoV-2. As the intense circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in the human population might select for more efficient transmissibility, which in turn could be aided by more efficient interferon antagonism, sequence evolution of SARS-CoV ORF6 should be monitored closely. Our mutagenesis study provides a target for sequence-based surveillance, because acquisition of charged amino acids at the CTD of protein 6, specifically at positions Gln51 and Gln56, was found to augment protein 6-dependent interferon signalling suppression in ISRE promotor assays. Interesting. At the time the paper was published, this mutation had never been seen in the wild. It was first spotted on April fifth and has been seen five times since, most recently in late June. It’s good that it’s not more prevalent. Perhaps it’s just too deadly. Still, I liked it better when it was a purely theoretical mutation.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 13:01
|
|
|
i'm confused, why is everyone taking ivermectin when hydroxychloroquine works so well 
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 14:07
|
|
|
Mozi posted:i'm confused, why is everyone taking ivermectin when hydroxychloroquine works so well Matt Gaetz has some blow out behind the shed
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 14:13
|
|
Mozi posted:i'm confused, why is everyone taking ivermectin when hydroxychloroquine works so well DO YOUR RESEARCH!!!!!!!
|
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 14:14
|
|
|
John_A_Tallon posted:
Hah! I was sitting in on my girlfriends continued education zoom class last year (shes a funeral director/mortician) and at one point the instructor encouraged everyone to invest in funeral services because there has never been a better time to do so, between COVID and America's growing population of old people. I saw the end of year stats for 2020 vs 2019 and previous years, every single chapel/funeral home absolutely smashed previous years total service numbers. Pre pandemic service numbers year to year were somewhat similar. I worry so much about my girlfriend catching COVID from some dipshit family. She is fully vaxxed, but 2 years ago she damaged her lungs via knockoff THC vape cartridges. The amount of bullshit she puts up with is mind boggling, I swear to god almost every single COVID funeral she's handled has been right winger families, and they have all been assholes that try to invite every person possible even though there was a guest limit, and they will scream at her as if she personally came up with her companies COVID policy. Her anti-vax anti-mask boss got COVID over a month ago and proceeded to infect a coworker (who in turn infected her brother in law, who is probably going to die if he can't get a lung transplant), and infected her own mother who died about 3 weeks ago. Some guy they work with called out the boss in front of everyone after her mom died, "Bet you wish she had gotten vaccinnated now, huh?"  nobody said poo poo after that.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 14:25
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 21:54 |
|
|
I wish they broke down the vaccine efficiency by age group and health status. It seems s bit pointless to include a bunch of old people with a feeble immune system and preexisting conditions in a study with a heap of young people with an already low susceptibility to covid.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2021 14:33
|
|