|
Another study out with the same estimate of a 4.5 million death toll in India.
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:09
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 18:26 |
|
|
Churchill would be so jealous.
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:10
|
|
|
Atrocious Joe posted:https://twitter.com/stuartpalley/status/1431420278018428930?s=20 on the one hand this is terrible, on the other hand i can't wait to see chuds that had existing respiratory PPE requirements for work stop using them or taking OSHA to court over them because they're not sheep and promptly dying from shitlung same with places that already had non-covid vax requirements like the military, who's ready for the measles covid smallpox hyperpandemic
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:11
|
|
|
spaceblancmange posted:Another study out with the same estimate of a 4.5 million death toll in India. Those are rookie numbers. America is going to go for the high score with delta.
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:16
|
|
|
spaceblancmange posted:give paste a chance
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:16
|
|
|
Petey posted:*seagull inhaling* this was all really insightful, thank you! I feel like I need a solid few thousand word profile in the Atlantic or something to really get to Oster levels of armchair crowing about why she is so loving this up, though. the Times column focused too much on her competent work
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:17
|
|
|
Spoondick posted:saw a maskless woman in costco pick her nose, eat the booger while sucking on her fingers for a good 5 seconds, then pick up several products to look at them before putting them back on the shelf free samples
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:17
|
|
|
etalian posted:The problem being a CSPAM poster is when they ask for the mandatory vaccination cards, the CSPAM poster will have to ask which ones? gently caress, I should have brought my binder
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:20
|
|
|
Real Mean Queen posted:gently caress, I should have brought my binder binders fulla vaxxes
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:22
|
|
|
The current fatality rate for COVID appears to be about ~1.6%. Assuming this number is right and nothing causes it to rise or fall if it infected everyone in America exactly once we would be looking at over 5.3 million dead. But that's okay, 1.6% is pretty low so it won't happen to me.
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:22
|
|
|
lol wtf I got blocked by Zeynep Tufekci
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:23
|
|
|
Imagine being so liberal that you think any of this is Trump’s fault.
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:23
|
|
|
mod sassinator posted:lmfao biden doing the thing trump actually warned about... "Mr. FDA director if these vaccines aren't approved right now you are FIRED!", back in december: https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-business-mark-meadows-coronavirus-pandemic-0902fbb041b0459e55da86be75b1457a always has been, only difference is that trump was the first one dumb enough to say what was in the playbook out loud
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:25
|
|
|
Ursine Catastrophe posted:on the one hand this is terrible, on the other hand i can't wait to see chuds that had existing respiratory PPE requirements for work stop using them or taking OSHA to court over them because they're not sheep and promptly dying from shitlung Underwater welder dudes all going down without SCUBA gear and refusing to come back up for air because they’re stuck between the weird “I have to do my job” thing and the “no one should ever wear any mask” thing so they just die
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:26
|
|
|
Notorious R.I.M. posted:the peak lines up well enough that i do buy that the half rear end mask mandate was enough to curb the further spread of delta in king county. i think this is true even with only the modest increases in compliance i saw after it went into effect. it's kind of hilarious how effective masks are. I honestly wonder how much is "the masks" and how much is people thinking everything is fine and dandy until "oh poo poo statewide mask mandate" and get appropriately nervous again wonder what the opentable reservations look like in comparison
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:30
|
|
|
Zurtilik posted:The current fatality rate for COVID appears to be about ~1.6%. Assuming this number is right and nothing causes it to rise or fall if it infected everyone in America exactly once we would be looking at over 5.3 million dead. But that's okay, 1.6% is pretty low so it won't happen to me. I'm going to assume that this is the fatality rate when hospitals are around to get people through the worst of it. When those fill up and we have shortages or labor and materiel, it'll be more. Also the new variants have adapted to those with vaccines and people who assume that vaccine equals safety are going to get run over at some point too because the government byline will have lulled them into complacency. The government was right. It will be endemic for a while. But that's a choice that they're making for us because they want to keep the economy going at all costs. Including the deaths of millions and very possibly tens of millions of people just in the US alone. We also can't live with covid long term. It kills us way faster than we can adapt to it and weakens us with every new mutation. We lost patience with sheltering in place. Some think it's a conspiracy. Others desperately want to go back to brunch. We're a year and a half in and there has been a complete and utter failure to tackle covid as a social problem. We're in the transitory stage where covid beats us the gently caress up for a while until we start figuring out how to solve the social problems. Conspiracy minded and brunch minded people are both going to get run over by covid. The only way we get rid of covid is to no longer allow it access to our respiratory systems. All other methods are temporary and insufficient stopgaps that will only prolong the inevitable. Ice Phisherman fucked around with this message at 13:41 on Sep 1, 2021 |
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:31
|
|
|
I mean, I assume 1.6% is optimistic, I was just working fast, dirty numbers with some quick googling.
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:34
|
|
|
gradenko_2000 posted:lol wtf I got blocked by Zeynep Tufekci lol
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:38
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:41
|
|
|
Dr John needs to close comments on his videos Any good he's doing is undone by the insanity in the comments
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:44
|
|
|
Am I the only person who's bothered by how the vaccine efficacy numbers are presented? What we currently know: 2 groups of 100 people, one vaxxed, one not, are observed over a period of time. After this period, 20 unvaxxed people pop positive, 1 vaxxed person does. This seems to be presented to people as "95% of people who are vaxxed will *never* get anything ever" when that's really not it at all? For all we know, those 200 people in the trial were all masking and social distancing properly, in fact we assume that both groups are doing so at the same rate, but you're not going to get the same out come in a group of people who are just out doing covid bukakke all day every day. We know that infection instances and viral loads(heh) are a thing It's more like you had a pistol that you played russian roulette with once every day, and the vaccine replaced it with a pistol that has 20 times as may cylinders. Good, but if you now start pulling the trigger 100x a day just for giggles, well what outcome are you expecting? I know that subsequent observational studies seem to suggest that the actual level of protection is closer to 95% than not, at least with respect to hospitalization and death, but it still bugs me.
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:44
|
|
|
"I just keep thinking, 'What if America had gotten smarter instead of dumber? Would things be not so stupid today?'. I lie awake and obsess about this."
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:45
|
|
|
Zurtilik posted:I mean, I assume 1.6% is optimistic, I was just working fast, dirty numbers with some quick googling. That's fair. I don't assume everyone in the US is going to get exposed, no matter what the government says. But for every person we lose to covid we'll lose more from secondary effects. People unable to cope with cyclical bouts of misery for example. If we lose ten million to covid we're likely to slow bleed at least half as many people from the horror. Not immediately, but in drips and drabs from suicide, drug overdose and the like. We can't socially absorb those kinds of shocks over and over again. Where every six to twelve months we just have another unraveling of our social structure. Because if we keep doing this Open Biden poo poo, that's what it's going to be. We'll be even more stressed out than the lockdowns and with more dead as a result. Maybe if covid just got a pass or two at us like with Spanish Flu where it just deleted 10% of the world's population over a couple years and then faded out we could do it. You can cope with horror if it's relatively brief. But covid isn't looking like it'll be brief. It'll be endemic like the flu. We're supposed to "live with it". Until we finally decide that we can't live with it. And that's going to take time for a consensus to be reached as to whether that happens or not. China is correct. Zero covid is the only sane choice. Ice Phisherman fucked around with this message at 13:54 on Sep 1, 2021 |
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:47
|
|
|
Zurtilik posted:The current fatality rate for COVID appears to be about ~1.6%. Assuming this number is right and nothing causes it to rise or fall if it infected everyone in America exactly once we would be looking at over 5.3 million dead. But that's okay, 1.6% is pretty low so it won't happen to me. It's probably lower, largely because the US is still missing a large number of cases. Wonder if contact tracing and testing capacity in Australia is going to keep up with the current outbreak, as it might provide a good high statistics estimate of infection fatality rate for delta. The basic problem is that places with the ability to track down every case, including asymptomatic ones, tend to not have many cases, seems like a bit of a catch-22.
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:47
|
|
|
when they ask for your vaccine card 
Steve Yun fucked around with this message at 13:51 on Sep 1, 2021 |
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:48
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1432780407485964296 honor system will surely work this time
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:57
|
|
|
Ice Phisherman posted:I'm going to assume that this is the fatality rate when hospitals are around to get people through the worst of it. When those fill up and we have shortages or labor and materiel, it'll be more. Fatality rate for covid among the general population in new Jersey, and later the us, about this time last year was about 1/600 That's covid fatalities divided by the entire population, not just known positive covid rates Deltas morbidity rate is probably artificially low because OG covid already took out an enormous chunk of marginally healthy older people living in assisted care facilities, and it will take a decade for those populations to grow back Would not surprise me if overall rate floats down to 1/400 which I guess is about 0.25%
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:58
|
|
|
My governor went to Kentucky to try to learn about what is going right and wrong there w/r/t a delta surge so that maybe we do things better here. In publicity photos he was wearing a cloth mask. He cancelled meetings today because he “isn’t feeling well and will get tested for COVID” Lol learn to not travel and wear a respirator dude
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 13:59
|
|
|
lol
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 14:02
|
|
|
Just watched the latest Campbell video. I guess that's it? Let everyone get it and hope the vaccines hold up against future variants? I mean, that's clearly what we're doing here as well. Testing sites are closing, the automatic lockdown system has been scrapped and coronapass will no longer be required.
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 14:02
|
|
|
Testvan posted:https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1432780407485964296 sending this to my fellow parents of small children telling them this means they need to cancel their LD vacation plans and ruining their day (until they rationalize this doesn't apply to them and go any way)
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 14:02
|
|
|
Testvan posted:https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1432780407485964296 I don't get it I said "shouldn't" right there in the statement
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 14:03
|
|
|
SplitSoul posted:Just watched the latest Campbell video. I guess that's it? Let everyone get it and hope the vaccines hold up against future variants? I mean, that's clearly what we're doing here as well. Testing sites are closing, the automatic lockdown system has been scrapped and coronapass will no longer be required. Lol Denmark.
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 14:08
|
|
|
Throatwarbler posted:Am I the only person who's bothered by how the vaccine efficacy numbers are presented? you're right to suspect that the framing of the vaccine effectiveness numbers are... problematic, but it's kinda complicated you can't really test your "chance to get infected" short of deliberately trying to infect someone and seeing if it takes, but that's a really ethically fraught step to take (or at least, you'd think so) so instead, you do the process you describe above, and hope that your sample population is large enough and diverse enough that "what if people are just being really careful?" comes out in the wash but even if you do that, trying to measure "chance of infection" also requires that you regularly and constantly and proactively test your subjects, because asymptomatic infections are a thing, and if you're only testing people when they volunteer themselves or if they develop symptoms, you're going to get fooled. and this is probably the part where these studies falter in contrast, we have a much better grasp on how much vaccines reduce "chance of requiring hospitalization", because it's a lot easier to segregate groups of people who are "infected, do not need hospitalization" and "infected, requires hospitalization" without putting too many people in the former group. Although this still requires constant testing, but less than if you were trying to catch infections
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 14:11
|
|
|
Mola Yam posted:why are dead people still coming to the factory hypercapitalism
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 14:11
|
|
|
Mola Yam posted:why are dead people still coming to the factory for the tax deduction
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 14:16
|
|
|
John Campbell saying Germany was giving up on mass testing by next month is pretty surprising. At some point that's going to be pushed hard here and I guess the few still working from home have that end
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 14:17
|
|
|
I mean at this point you can basically just draw meaningful conclusions from macro-level data. The vaccine is very good against infection, but not sterilizing, for about 5 months, so you should wear a mask. After 5 months it gets worse, so wear a mask and also probably limit exposure to large groups of people indoors. Probably get a booster. Maybe it gets better when a Delta variant vaccine comes out. The vaccine has always been great against hospitalization, but there is a chance you could get breakthrough so follow points above. I mean that’s basically it. The only calculus left is if boosters or a delta specific vaccine somehow get to long term sterilizing/near sterilizing immunity, if they provide enough infection resistance to get through winter periods, and if boosting every 6-12 months is safe. I guess it could also be looked at if something like novavax reduces the risk of myocarditis as a side effect.
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 14:18
|
|
|
this week's update that lime green line lol but they stopped archiving the old forecasts a few weeks ago  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/forecasting/forecasting-us-cases-previous.html
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 14:21
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 18:26 |
|
|
Testvan posted:https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1432780407485964296 it is september 2021, the cdc says don't travel it is july 2021, the cdc says open er up it is march 2020, the cdc says don't travel it is september 2020, the cdc says open er up it is december 2020, the cdc says don't travel
|
|
#
?
Sep 1, 2021 14:22
|
|