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What is wrong with Josh Jacobs by the way
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Sep 8, 2021 16:33
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Grudenitis
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Sep 8, 2021 16:34
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Anyone mention Brady on this page yet? Tom Brady plays tomorrow night fyi
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Sep 8, 2021 16:37
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Gosh I wish I could watch the Cowboys shock Brady tonight instead of tomorrow
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Sep 8, 2021 16:39
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Joey Freshwater posted:Tom Brady plays tomorrow night fyi 
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Sep 8, 2021 16:40
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:What's the team most likely to vastly underachieve their season expectations? Ravens. I think the offense takes a significant step back this year given they had actually good RBs last season and this year only have Gus Edwards and Leveon Bell. They also didn't fix their receiver problem at all unless you think Sammy Watkins is the truth. (???) I think Lamar Jackson is a great QB. I think their defense will be stellar. I don't think they make playoffs. Browns bounce them out of the division and there are too many other good AFC squads to wildcard in.
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Sep 8, 2021 16:40
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gently caress Tom Brady. gently caress the Cowboys.
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Sep 8, 2021 16:41
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The fun part of this discussion is nobody is going to suggest an NFC East or AFC South team because no matter how badly they disappoint who the gently caress else is going to run away with that division? Oh no the Titans suck out loud and only win the AFC South by 3 games over the Jags.
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Sep 8, 2021 16:42
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I wish I could legally gamble on football games.
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Sep 8, 2021 16:43
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Joey Freshwater posted:Anyone mention Brady on this page yet? So who’s the big name pass rusher on the Cowboys who Goons will predict will kill Brady but then be invisible as is tradition?
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Sep 8, 2021 16:43
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Kalli posted:The fun part of this discussion is nobody is going to suggest an NFC East or AFC South team because no matter how badly they disappoint who the gently caress else is going to run away with that division? NFCE could go to the Redskins tbh.
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Sep 8, 2021 16:43
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kiimo posted:What is wrong with Josh Jacobs by the way https://twitter.com/VinnyBonsignore/status/1435334628840148995
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Sep 8, 2021 16:45
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Nick Jr. Face posted:Wasn't he the one who recovered the infamous fumble where Cam didn't even try? Nah, that was Malik Jackson. He was on the squad though and was crucial to its success. IIRC he was CB3 behind Harris and Talib, so basically the dude who got thrown to the most unless the QB was ~crazy~
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Sep 8, 2021 16:56
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Was it in the Super Bowl when Talib lost his mind and got ejected?
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Sep 8, 2021 16:57
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3 DONG HORSE posted:Nah, that was Malik Jackson. He was on the squad though and was crucial to its success. IIRC he was CB3 behind Harris and Talib, so basically the dude who got thrown to the most unless the QB was ~crazy~
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Sep 8, 2021 17:00
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Was it in the Super Bowl when Talib lost his mind and got ejected? Not that season. I think the Crabtree thing was a few years later, during the sad and depressing times
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Sep 8, 2021 17:01
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Nick Jr. Face posted:Malik Jackson recovered Von's strip-sack-fumble for the TD early in the game but I thought it was Roby who recovered the other fumble in the 4th quarter OH! I was thinking about the Von Miller strip sack. I had to look this one up. He recovered a fumble off the Steelers RB for the winning touch down. Looking back on this, it's loving crazy how well that defense did against those offenses. The Pats game might even have been the best game of that season, too. I was probably more scared then than I was against the Panthers! I think I'm gonna watch my DVR recording of Super Bowl 50 
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Sep 8, 2021 17:04
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:So who’s the big name pass rusher on the Cowboys who Goons will predict will kill Brady but then be invisible as is tradition? I looked up Dallas' d-line because I didn't know and I still don't because I don't recognize any of their names but it also made me realize Dan Quinn is the Cowboys DC lol
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Sep 8, 2021 17:05
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ASAPRockySituation posted:Ravens. I think the offense takes a significant step back this year given they had actually good RBs last season and this year only have Gus Edwards and Leveon Bell. There's a whole lot of charts that indicate that Gus Edwards is basically a top 5 running back in the league (in terms of efficiency, not counting stats). Here's one I saw today:  So either Gus is that good, or it's just Roman's scheme that inflates RB numbers, or it's just Lamar who makes the RBs life easier, but regardless I think he's gonna have another great year. AndrewP fucked around with this message at 17:10 on Sep 8, 2021 |
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Sep 8, 2021 17:07
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That sounds like a really baloney stat.
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Sep 8, 2021 17:10
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ASAPRockySituation posted:Ravens. I think the offense takes a significant step back this year given they had actually good RBs last season and this year only have Gus Edwards and Leveon Bell. They also didn't fix their receiver problem at all unless you think Sammy Watkins is the truth. (???) Ravens running game should be ok though we will miss Dobbins' big play potential. I feel like Lamar makes the whole running game work better. In 2018 when Flacco was QB we had the absolute worst rushing attack in the league. When Lamar took over in the middle of the season we suddenly became the best running team in the league. We basically cant lose with the Bell signing Dont forget we drafted Rashod Bateman who looked pretty good before his injury. Brown, Bateman and Watkins with Andrews at TE should be a solid corps
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Sep 8, 2021 17:16
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:That sounds like a really baloney stat. here's one from PFF:  I know TFF is curmudgeonly about advanced stats but he 100% passes the eye test, he just didn't get a full workload
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Sep 8, 2021 17:29
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:That sounds like a really baloney stat. AndrewP posted:here's one from PFF: Rushing Yards Over Expectation is actually really fascinating: they use player tracking data from thousands plays, and feed it into a computer; the computer then generates a probability for the "expected" rushing yards based on where the dots move, and how fast, and how close to the runner they get based on the thousands of prior samples. Then it looks at the subject play, and says, "Ok, here the runner should get 5 yards" or whatever. If the runner got 7 instead, he gets credited for +2 RYE. https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/status/1178395198075703297?s=20
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Sep 8, 2021 17:40
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by aggregating thousands of plays before it, the Computer figures Chubb gets tackled somewhere around the 20, for a 7 yard gain. The model thinks the blocks at the b gap are good enough to get through, but expects the LB, or CB and/or the safety to bring the average runner down. Instead, Chubb's cutback leaves the CB and safety turned around, and his speed breaks the angle on the LB and he houses it. Thats a +88 Rushing Yards over Expectation.
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Sep 8, 2021 17:44
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Its Computers Watching The Tape.
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Sep 8, 2021 17:45
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blarzgh posted:by aggregating thousands of plays before it, the Computer figures Chubb gets tackled somewhere around the 20, for a 7 yard gain. The model thinks the blocks at the b gap are good enough to get through, but expects the LB, or CB and/or the safety to bring the average runner down. Since it's an 88 yard touchdown and he was expected to get 7 yards, wouldn't it be +81 RYoE?
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Sep 8, 2021 17:46
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Mr. Nice! posted:Since it's an 88 yard touchdown and he was expected to get 7 yards, wouldn't it be +81 RYoE? honestly surprised that a dak Prescott fan would make a mistake while justifying how good a player is with stats
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Sep 8, 2021 17:47
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The only rushing stats that matter are sick jukes and hilarious stiff arms/trucks delivered. Cue the career highlights of Barry Sanders destroying ankles and Earl Campbell running over entire defenses with his massive thighs.
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Sep 8, 2021 17:48
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Who had a better stiffarm than Derek Henry I can't think of anyone better
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Sep 8, 2021 17:49
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blarzgh posted:by aggregating thousands of plays before it, the Computer figures Chubb gets tackled somewhere around the 20, for a 7 yard gain. The model thinks the blocks at the b gap are good enough to get through, but expects the LB, or CB and/or the safety to bring the average runner down. this makes sense considering this is the game and probably The Run that forced the Ravens to completely revamp their linebackers - went out and signed Josh Bynes and LJ Fort, Patrick Onwausor demoted from starter, Kenny Young eventually traded for Marcus Peters and Chuck Clark got the green dot. the Ravens front office does not enjoy getting run over
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Sep 8, 2021 17:49
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Barry Sanders not even touching Rod Woodson and causing Woodson to miss the whole 1995 season is all one needs to know about Barry’s sick jukes.
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Sep 8, 2021 17:52
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a patagonian cavy posted:honestly surprised that a dak Prescott fan would make a mistake while justifying how good a player is with stats he's a lawyer. math is not his strong suit.
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Sep 8, 2021 17:52
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:What's the team most likely to vastly underachieve their season expectations? On the one hand, expectations for the Lions are rock-bottom. On the other hand, they never fail to disappoint.
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Sep 8, 2021 17:58
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I don't get how anyone looks at the AFC North and sees a team more likely than the Steelers to explode into a puddle of piss. In a 7 team playoff field Browns and Ravens are nearly guaranteed spots.
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Sep 8, 2021 17:58
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Yeah the Ravens can be beset by injuries and not be a full strength team and still easily make the playoffs.
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Sep 8, 2021 18:01
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Acebuckeye13 posted:On the one hand, expectations for the Lions are rock-bottom. On the other hand, they never fail to disappoint. I intentionally keep my expectations low, so ultimately i’m never let down! It keeps me sane.
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Sep 8, 2021 18:02
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But how low is too low for the Lions this year?
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Sep 8, 2021 18:03
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:But how low is too low for the Lions this year? No one has ever gone 0-17 before.
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Sep 8, 2021 18:07
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:But how low is too low for the Lions this year? It feels impossible for a team to have a worse record then either the Lions or Texans this year. Excited to see someone try for it though.
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Sep 8, 2021 18:09
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DVOA updated predictions: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2021/2021-dvoa-projections-predict-bucs-chiefs-rematch Mean wins, but even here, how the gently caress are the Lions or Texans supposed to average being a 6 win team exactly? 11.9 - Buccaneers 11.5 - Chiefs 10.5 - Packers / Ravens / Bills 9.9 - Seahawks 9.8 - 49ers / Patriots 9.4 - Rams / Cowboys 9.3 - Dolphins / Broncos 9.1 - Saints 8.9 - Vikings 8.7 - Browns / Steelers 8.4 - Titans 8.3 - Colts 8.1 - Cardinals 7.9 - Raiders / Football Team 7.3 - Bears 7.2 - Chargers / Bengals 7.1 - Giants 7.0 - Falcons / Eagles 6.9 - Panthers 6.6 - Lions 6.0 - Jaguars 5.7 - Texans 5.6 - Jets
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Sep 8, 2021 18:16
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