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beep by grandpa
May 5, 2004

https://twitter.com/chrisoIIey/status/1438255193259401220?s=20

... I laughed :shobon:

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Asproigerosis
Mar 13, 2013

insufferable

euphronius posted:

Fantasy Football is the worst. I was at a party recently with a guy who was into fantasy. He kept saying names and I’d be like “who is that ??” And he’d say “WR for the colts” and I have no idea why Anyone outside of Indiana would ever care who the WR for the colts is . Who is the FS for the colts . Who is the gunner on Kick off ? Who cares

Tbh I'm pretty glad that the draft kins sports betting poo poo blew up right when I was finally about to try to do fantasy. 0 interest in trying to analyze the entire leagues skill position every week for betting odds.

CyberPingu
Sep 15, 2013


If you're not striving to improve, you'll end up going backwards.
Here's some advanced stats.

Jalen Hurts has 1 win this season

Dak has 0 wins


Therefore, Hurts is better than Dak


Seems pretty open and shut to me

Toaster Beef
Jan 23, 2007

that's not nature's way
true leaders don't need wins to win

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!
I hope the cowboys lose

CyberPingu
Sep 15, 2013


If you're not striving to improve, you'll end up going backwards.

a neat cape posted:

I hope the cowboys lose

:hmmyes:

Chucktesla
Jul 13, 2014

a neat cape posted:

I hope the cowboys lose

Quiet Feet
Dec 14, 2009

THE HELL IS WITH THIS ASS!?





a neat cape posted:

I hope the cowboys lose

:same:

fartknocker
Oct 28, 2012


Damn it, this always happens. I think I'm gonna score, and then I never score. It's not fair.



Wedge Regret

a neat cape posted:

I hope the cowboys lose

:hellyeah:

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌

a neat cape posted:

I hope the cowboys lose

new thread title

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Look how skinny this kid is lmao

https://twitter.com/wipmorningshow/status/1438443364656033792?s=21

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌
I was completely right about DeVonta Smith and I'm crowning him after one game much like how Eagles fans crown everyone after one game

pro starcraft loser
Jan 23, 2006

Stand back, this could get messy.

Prepping myself for the inevitable loss Washington will have this evening during a nationally televised game against a team they should definitely beat.

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer

a neat cape posted:

I hope the cowboys lose

I'm afeared that your make-a-wish(tm) will come true this weekend.

D-Law: OUT
La'el: OUT
Randy Gregory: OUT?
Gallup: OUT
Starting Safety: OUT?
# 3 Cornerback: OUT?
Greg the Leg: STILL ON THE TEAM

Chucktesla
Jul 13, 2014

It would be cool if Herbert had nearly 300 yards in the first half like he did against the jets last year because I'm not sure this injured cowboys d is too much better than that jets d, especially if Gregory doesn't play

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer
https://twitter.com/PHLEaglesNation/status/1438209861926494222?s=19

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009


:911:

Shinjobi
Jul 10, 2008


Gravy Boat 2k

Toaster Beef posted:

true leaders don't need wins to win

:psypop:

CyberPingu
Sep 15, 2013


If you're not striving to improve, you'll end up going backwards.



CyberPingu posted:

Here's some advanced stats.

Jalen Hurts has 1 win this season

Dak has 0 wins


Therefore, Hurts is better than Dak


Seems pretty open and shut to me


:colbert:

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer

U know I posted that just for you

Quiet Feet
Dec 14, 2009

THE HELL IS WITH THIS ASS!?





Jalen Hurts is part of a team that won a Superbowl in 2017. Dak Prescott did not lead the Cowboys to a SB win that year. Makes you think.

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer
Edit: I found a better article that explains it in more detailhttps://theathletic.com/2761771/2021/08/24/playing-gap-and-a-half-in-vic-fangio-and-brandon-staleys-system/

This article doesn't go into Xs and Os very much, but it does talk about the latest defensive trend that's spreading slowly through the NFL: Brandon Staley's 2 high safety shell.

What the Rams do, and other defenses are starting to do, is play 2 high safeties and almost never (like <10% of the time) bring an extra safety down in the box. The Rams play the highest percentage of "pass-expected" defense of any team in the NFL. But, they're pretty good against the run! How is that possible?

Well, they stole from Chip Kelley, who stole from himself at Oregon. The rams play a tight (tite?) front on the D Line, and line their defensive ends inside the shoulders of the offensive tackles, and their nose tackle right over the center. Instead of trying to play the gaps, the rams line plays a "gap-and-a-half" meaning they absorb the double team intentionally from zone-blocking offensive lineman.

Why do they do this? Because by no shading into the gap, they equalize their pressure on both blockers in the double-team. In a zone run, a double-team block lets the guard get a push on the lineman, and then move upfield to get a linebacker. BUT, when the D-lineman is intentionally absorbing more of your block, you can't get free to move upfield at the linebackers as easily or quickly, leaving the second level free to make the play on the run.

In essence, a Staley/Fangio defensive lineman is "blocking" for their linebackers, which concedes a little yardage on rush plays (Rams have one of the lowest "stuff" percentages on run plays) but allows LB/DBs to make clean plays on the run to keep run games from being efficient, or breaking off big plays.

All this while freeing up their DBs to play pass prevention defense on 85% of plays, resulting in one of the best pass defenses in the league.

blarzgh fucked around with this message at 18:08 on Sep 16, 2021

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer
Here, the NT is head-up on the center, and the DTs are shaded to the inside. Brockers (90) has the primary assignment on the B gap to his left, with a "half a gap" responsibility on his right, in the A Gap.


When brockers sees the RB cut back, his responsibility shfts to the A gap - here you can also see the NT shift to his next gap. Both lineman are trying Not to penetrate, but instead to hold their gaps, respectively to allow 59(lb) and/or 32(saftey) to come up and make the play:

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

https://twitter.com/BenStandig/status/1438560665472356355?s=20

looking like eagles dallas fighting for the NFCE playoff spot.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌

blarzgh posted:

Here, the NT is head-up on the center, and the DTs are shaded to the inside. Brockers (90) has the primary assignment on the B gap to his left, with a "half a gap" responsibility on his right, in the A Gap.


When brockers sees the RB cut back, his responsibility shfts to the A gap - here you can also see the NT shift to his next gap. Both lineman are trying Not to penetrate, but instead to hold their gaps, respectively to allow 59(lb) and/or 32(saftey) to come up and make the play:



That's the tite 4 which is used to counter the wide zone by not letting guards pull. The linemen are trying to penetrate but they're also trying to catch the guards on their help block so they can't get to the second level for the LBs.

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!
https://twitter.com/chargers/status/1438560764613201920?s=19

Chucktesla
Jul 13, 2014

Doltos posted:

That's the tite 4 which is used to counter the wide zone by not letting guards pull. The linemen are trying to penetrate but they're also trying to catch the guards on their help block so they can't get to the second level for the LBs.

Yeah it's basically meant to gently caress up zone running and RPOs, they'll let you run for four or five yards all day before you throw a single glance route.

Chucktesla
Jul 13, 2014

They've already had Derwin playing both safety spots, slot corner, linebacker and I think one play as an edge rusher last Sunday. Hell that slot corner spot was played by multiple guys like Derwin, Chris Harris, ASJ and even college safety turned NFL linebacker kyzir white. The rules for the front are arguably the least interesting part of what Staley is doing with the defense

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌
I wouldn't really say anything he's doing is that innovative outside the line play. Buzz concepts have existed since the 40s. There's just insane quality all throughout that defense that lets them have free reign in the second level. The tite 4 also is abysmal against power run and great o-lines so it's more a product of the Ram's division rather than a big solution to the wide zone.

BiggerBoat
Sep 26, 2007

Don't you tell me my business again.

blarzgh posted:

Here, the NT is head-up on the center, and the DTs are shaded to the inside. Brockers (90) has the primary assignment on the B gap to his left, with a "half a gap" responsibility on his right, in the A Gap.


When brockers sees the RB cut back, his responsibility shfts to the A gap - here you can also see the NT shift to his next gap. Both lineman are trying Not to penetrate, but instead to hold their gaps, respectively to allow 59(lb) and/or 32(saftey) to come up and make the play:



Careful.

Someone in this thread might accidentally learn something about the sport they watch every weekend and call you a nerd. Good move offering your insight into a visual presentation though. The hardest thing relating to analytics here, though, is "who exactly hosed up/did not gently caress up?" and why.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌
Who would have thought actual analysis over imperial data for a sport with 22 unreliable variables would be useful and educational

Vengarr
Jun 17, 2010

Smashed before noon

Doltos posted:

Who would have thought actual analysis over imperial data for a sport with 22 unreliable variables would be useful and educational

Empirical. Imperial data is what Princess Leia stole in Star Wars.

beep by grandpa
May 5, 2004

Vengarr posted:

Empirical. Imperial data is what Princess Leia stole in Star Wars.

:five:

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌
I frigged up

beep by grandpa
May 5, 2004

*turns on mic*

After review,

'Imperial data' is still an accurate term to use when referencing the NFL

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer

Doltos posted:

Who would have thought actual analysis over imperial data for a sport with 22 unreliable variables would be useful and educational

Yes, but advanced analytics (from decades ago) about the value of sacrificing a slight advantage in run defense to obtain a greater advantage in pass defense was predictive of the success this defensive adjustment.

Similarly, speaking of the McVay rams, emergent data about the effectiveness of play action regardless of rushing success was predictive of the success his offense would have, calling play action 2/3rds of the time from bunch sets before, and during their Superbowl run.

These things are 100% being studied and incorporated by NFL teams, analytics nerds are being hired into every front office, and while teams will never tell us what they're a to, to maintain a competitive advantage, it's absolutely a part of the modern game, just like draft charts, film study, scouting reports, and the forward pass all became part of the game.

And if they're a part of the game, why wouldn't someone be interested in them?

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer
I've never understood the notion that it's one or the other, film vs. stats; it's obviously both!

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

“Emergent data” lmao listen to yourself

It’s scouting.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

All those privileged guys getting jobs on FOs to do “stats” and the guy who won super bowls 20 years ago is still winning super bowls today

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Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌

blarzgh posted:

Yes, but advanced analytics (from decades ago) about the value of sacrificing a slight advantage in run defense to obtain a greater advantage in pass defense was predictive of the success this defensive adjustment.

Similarly, speaking of the McVay rams, emergent data about the effectiveness of play action regardless of rushing success was predictive of the success his offense would have, calling play action 2/3rds of the time from bunch sets before, and during their Superbowl run.

These things are 100% being studied and incorporated by NFL teams, analytics nerds are being hired into every front office, and while teams will never tell us what they're a to, to maintain a competitive advantage, it's absolutely a part of the modern game, just like draft charts, film study, scouting reports, and the forward pass all became part of the game.

And if they're a part of the game, why wouldn't someone be interested in them?

Emerging data dictated that one team in the NFL would run the tite 4 because they have one of the best defensive players of all time? Also everyone's calling play actions from their sets now. It's the wide zone, or more specifically the split zone for the Rams. Data didn't dictate that, the great run blocking from the Rams brought about the constant play actions. I guarantee you McVay never looked at stats to figure out to run play action more, he just noticed that his zone blocking scheme would let Gurley break out over and over again. Then the Pats threw the 6-1 at them over and over until they utterly loving wrecked them in the Super Bowl, which is again personnel dictated, not stats.

I think you completely overrate how much analytics is actually looked at in football.

The actual stats that I believe are looked at constantly are gamecast stats. Teams are starting to measure how fast players actually run in game, how fast they react, how much distance they cover in a typical game. The big one everyone was gaga about a few years back was running away from the opposing sideline because d-line has to jog farther to get to their position and might be a bit more tired. It's all about physical aptitude measurements now, not success of play, because NFL coaches aren't blisteringly stupid.

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