COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed.
Black Beauty	2	1.06%
A Talking Pony!?!	4	2.13%
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Mr. Hands	54	28.72%
Total:	188 votes

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wisconsingreg: Jan 13, 2019

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

Federalism is nothing new.

Nor is using the coercive apparatus to bring subnational units in line.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 04:32

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# ? May 24, 2024 21:53

Charles 2 of Spain: Nov 7, 2017

Stickman posted:

Most of what I've seen has shown waning VE vs infection, but have far too small of sample sizes to say anything definitive about hospitalization. So far I haven't seen any that offer good evidence that protection v severe disease doesn't decline either, just that it's probably not by as much as the more severe estimates of VE v infection decline (which would be consistent with the immunological results). I haven't had time to keep up with everything, though, so it's possible there's something I missed!

The Kaiser study had one with about 3 million people, there was a recent one out of Portugal which I think had about a million as well. I mean the original waning freakout was based on Israeli observational data which wasn't exactly a huge sample size either. PHE also released some stuff a couple of days ago I think. We'll probably get some reasonable studies in the near future.

Charles 2 of Spain fucked around with this message at 04:38 on Sep 17, 2021

# ? Sep 17, 2021 04:34

Professor Beetus: Apr 12, 2007; They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Stickman posted:

Any parent can tell you that frequent exposure to disease just means you get sick more often

Yes but I believe being a parent is called "macroexposure." :imunfunny:

Alternative to pet tax for the page:

Professor Beetus fucked around with this message at 04:37 on Sep 17, 2021

# ? Sep 17, 2021 04:34

wisconsingreg: Jan 13, 2019

Biden's vaccine mandates are a good start in a broken system. But 100,000s of people in florida catching covid back and forth forever and ever is going to just make a new variant that can potentially be a greater threat than any enemy the US has ever faced. It needs to be treated as such.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 04:35

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

Stickman posted:

Besides the HCW studies that have already been discussed, there's this study showing declining antibody levels in HCWs. They seem to track with the similar antibody declines in the general population studies, suggesting that any HCW exposures aren't keeping antibodies up, at least. It does make sense because strict PPE use means they are likely aren't exposed more than say, your average service worker.

The CDC also has VE estimates over time for HCWs, but the sample size is unfortunately pretty small, uses minimal covariate adjustments, and it's not possible to separate the effects of Delta from >5 month declines. There were moderate declines at 4 months, but the small sample size makes it impossible to say much. It also has this bit that I have no idea how it got past internal review:

Most of what I've seen has shown waning VE vs infection, but have far too small of sample sizes to say anything definitive about hospitalization. So far I haven't seen any that offer good evidence that protection v severe disease doesn't decline either, just that it's probably not by as much as the more severe estimates of VE v infection decline (which would be consistent with the immunological results). I haven't had time to keep up with everything, though, so it's possible there's something I missed!

My (educated layman's) understanding of vaccine immunity was that antibodies are expected to wane pretty quickly, but memory B and T-cell response lasts much longer. Which is why we're seeing drops in antibodies (expected) and decreased effectiveness versus breakthrough mild/moderate infection, but to my knowledge we don't have evidence that the vaccines are less effective against severe disease, hospitalization, and death.

That's why a lot of experts are not convinced on authorizing boosters for the general population, because the vaccines are still just about as effective vs. serious disease.

Plus I assume there are considerations of maintaining enough vaccine supply for boosters for people whose doctors recommend it (immunocompromised, very elderly etc) and the still unvaccinated.

I mean, my doctor recommended I get a booster so I scheduled one for next week. Horses have a very long nasal cavity and are predisposed to respiratory illness.

edit: in case someone gets mad at me making a bad dumb joke, I do actually have underlying conditions that warrant a booster. Horse jokes aside.

Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 04:39 on Sep 17, 2021

# ? Sep 17, 2021 04:36

Sanguinia: Jan 1, 2012; ~Everybody wants to be a cat~
~Because a cat's the only cat~
~Who knows where its at~

"Democracy has demonstrated itself to be a dead ideology, the 21st Century will be dominated by those nations that have successfully refined Authoritarianism for the digital age because they remove the pernicious variable of choice from governance, and you need look no further than the United States NOT descending into Authoritarianism being the direct cause of continued pandemic problems for proof."

I see the Covid information thread is on fire today.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 04:36

Thorn Wishes Talon: Oct 18, 2014; by Fluffdaddy

Vasukhani posted:

Nor is using the coercive apparatus to bring subnational units in line.

US states aren't "subnational units" in the same sense that, say, Chinese cities or provinces are, is what I'm saying.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 04:37

wisconsingreg: Jan 13, 2019

Sanguinia posted:

"Democracy has demonstrated itself to be a dead ideology, the 21st Century will be dominated by those nations that have successfully refined Authoritarianism for the digital age because they remove the pernicious variable of choice from governance, and you need look no further than the United States NOT descending into Authoritarianism being the direct cause of continued pandemic problems for proof."

I see the Covid information thread is on fire today.

Mass killing your citizens intentionally is authoritarian. Even if they think they want to die. Ending that is not.

The long arm of federal authoritarianism, violating state's rights!!

# ? Sep 17, 2021 04:43

How are u: May 19, 2005; by Azathoth

Vasukhani posted:

If the US federal government cannot impose an extremely simple public health measure on a subnational unit I think it's time to consider the country done. Not like it will Balkanize in 100 years, but like, already non existent. Image how such a consideration would look in any other country.

This seems rather dramatic. The US is still here no matter how upset you are with our covid response and policies thus far. We're going to be around for a while yet, inshallah.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 04:44

Platystemon: Feb 13, 2012; BREADS

Fritz the Horse posted:

Also, note that it's the pharma companies that are pushing booster shots the hardest, experts are mixed on whether it's all that beneficial right now. From the very article you link:

Same thing with the Pfizer vaccine, it's Pfizer itself that is pushing strongest for third shots for the general population.

Don�t make appeals based on the perceived sinister motivations of the parties. Leave that to the antivaxxers.

Whether or not the booster are �necessary� is a value judgement. Given the high impact of the virus, the modest cost of the boosters, and the safety they have demonstrated thus far, it is difficult to imagine Pfizer and Moderna being wrong about this one. The arithmetic is just ridiculously stacked. People spend more on antacids.

If you want to argue that those doses are better given to the third world, I won�t disagree, but I don�t think that�s a credible alternative in America today.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 04:54

Sanguinia: Jan 1, 2012; ~Everybody wants to be a cat~
~Because a cat's the only cat~
~Who knows where its at~

Vasukhani posted:

Mass killing your citizens intentionally is authoritarian. Even if they think they want to die. Ending that is not.

The long arm of federal authoritarianism, violating state's rights!!

Lol even at the peak of Civil Rights Enforcement the Federal Government didn't remove segregationist state governments from power, which you literally suggested be done. The only time in history anything like that has happened was in the wake of a Civil War. Also forcing Vaccines on people would necessitate suspension of the Constitution and its protections of several individual rights, whereas the enforcement of federal law through federal authority, which is what is happening in that picture, in fact requires the opposite.

You are advocating for the Federal government to enact Martial Law and calling it Anti-Authoritarian you weirdo.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 04:57

Charles 2 of Spain: Nov 7, 2017

Platystemon posted:

If you want to argue that those doses are better given to the third world, I won�t disagree, but I don�t think that�s a credible alternative in America today.

America could literally buy and give millions of doses to low income countries, who would eagerly take them, and manage their distribution and it would be objectively better for the global pandemic than boosters for all*.

* Americans

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:05

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

Platystemon posted:

Don�t make appeals based on the perceived sinister motivations of the parties. Leave that to the antivaxxers.

Actually it is entirely appropriate to critically appraise the claims made by vaccine manufacturers when many experts are unconvinced the boosters are necessary for the general population. It is not medical experts writ large aggressively pushing for boosters for the general population, it is the pharma companies. That is certainly not reason to invalidate their claims, but it is worth noting.

It's also irrelevant to bring up antivaxxers. We're talking about boosters for people who are already fully vaccinated. The actual cost-benefit analysis is along the lines of:

Platystemon posted:

If you want to argue that those doses are better given to the third world, I won�t disagree, but I don�t think that�s a credible alternative in America today.

Do those third shots give enough of a boost to the US general population that it's worth devoting many tens of millions of doses to rollout at this time? Or would those doses be better used for the unvaxxed either here or in other nations? I mean, South Africa is having a hell of a time with the pandemic (among worst in Africa) and has high rates of HIV infection, for one example.

If the boosters are authorized and pushed for general population, how will that impact availability for high-risk populations and unvaccinated in the US?

Granted at this point I don't think you're reaching very many unvaxxed people in the US, but there will still be a trickle due to the recent mandates and worsening delta peak.

edit: my personal stake in this is that I was on a ventilator for three days and almost died in January 2020 for reasons unrelated to COVID. Due to those issues, I'm in a high-risk group and recommended to get a booster ASAP.

Because of that I'm a little concerned about the possibility of a rush on booster shots by the general population delaying boosters for the high-risk populations that definitely need them. Maybe that's unfounded and there's plenty of supply, but that's my own personal investment.

I think it is the responsibility of the US to deploy more vaccines to other countries ASAP. We hosed up our own response to begin with and hoarded vaccine. It is incredibly selfish and inhumane to hoover up booster shots for marginal effect when they could instead be used outside the country to save vastly more human life.

Like if the metric is "human lives saved" then ship them to Africa, holy poo poo are you kidding me?

Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 05:18 on Sep 17, 2021

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:07

Stickman: Feb 1, 2004

Charles 2 of Spain posted:

The Kaiser study had one with about 3 million people, there was a recent one out of Portugal which I think had about a million as well. I mean the original waning freakout was based on Israeli observational data which wasn't exactly a huge sample size either.

By "large enough sample size" I mean "large enough sample size of hospitalizations". There's always a lot fewer of those than cases! Israel's analysis is a great example because there's enough cases to have at least some evidence in decline vs detected infection, but not enough severe cases to really say much.

Thanks for mentioning those two studies, I hadn't seen them. The Portugal study (is this the one you meant?) actually looks relatively decent for deaths sample-wise but unfortunately they only have temporal analysis of 80+ folks, presumably because that's the only cohort with sufficient follow-up periods. They estimated 74% VE vs death for 80+ at >98 days, compared to 86 for the first month after full vaccination, but unfortunately there's no discussion about how much of that period overlaps Delta. The hospitalization estimates are weird because they had 91 breakthrough deaths but only 43 breakthrough vaccinations, which I guess means that most of the cohort received care outside of hospitals? Maybe at care centers? Either way I don't think there hospitalizations metrics are likely to be a good proxy for "severe disease" in that cohort, and I'm not really sure how to interpret those numbers without knowing more about how they are defined.

What is the Kaiser study? Nothing is popping up right away...

Stickman fucked around with this message at 05:19 on Sep 17, 2021

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:15

mod sassinator: Dec 13, 2006; I came here to Kick Ass and Chew Bubblegum,
and I'm All out of Ass

We paid for 600 million doses last year and another 200 million doses for boosters a couple months ago. There is zero supply pressure or concern for vaccines in the US. There is only a demand problem, and a policy problem not approving necessary boosters.

If we want to help the third world then let's remove the patent on the vaccines and let India crank out mRNA doses by the billions, like they have requested multiple times and we have denied.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:18

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

mod sassinator posted:

If we want to help the third world then let's remove the patent on the vaccines and let India crank out mRNA doses by the billions, like they have requested multiple times and we have denied.

This is a red herring. India does not currently have the infrastructure to produce mRNA vaccines which require highly highly specialized equipment and staff to do things like the lipid encapsulation. It would take many many months or years for mRNA production to come online with patents waived and the companies actively engaged in tech transfer.

There was a goon in the previous iteration of this thread that was posting about the microfluidics chips needed to do the lipid encapsulation.

Foxfire_ posted:

I will attempt a mRNA microfluidics effortpost (viral vector ones are there own things, and also completely separate from traditional mass-produced egg-grown vaccines, but those are being made by dozens of companies worldwide already because tissue culturing is more developed than microfluidics)

Microfluidics in general
Microfluidics is a big research area in the past few decades. It's about how fluid and particles behave in very small (~0.1-1000um wide) channels. This is interesting because a lot of fluid properties depend on forces that don't scale the same way with size. For example, if you took a big pipe and put both hot and cold water into one side of it, they will mix as they go down the pipe. If you do that in a microchannel, they'll stay on their sides without mixing. Microfluidics as a field is looking to describe behavior, and then use it to do stuff that's hard to do at macroscale

Typical workflow for a research lab trying to see if an idea actually works is sending a design to a place with semiobsolete semiconductor fab equipment and getting it etched onto a silicon wafer for a few thousand dollars and a week or two of turnaround time. Then you use grad student labor to cast PDMS (a kind of rubber) off of the wafer mold, plasma treat the PDMS to mess with its surface chemistry, and attach it to a glass slide to make an enclosed channel. This has problems, but is workaround-able since you don't need high quality or high throughput. It's okay if some casts tear/don't fill the mold/clog/leak/etc because you're going to be looking at everything with a microscope anyway and you can mess with it till you get a good one. And you don't care if running for hours produces less than a drop of output since your papers are going to be presenting microscope pictures & video for things like 'this channel geometry makes oil-in-water droplets of consistent size', not using the output material for anything. (PDMS is also squishy and deforms when you pressurize it, which is annoying since dimensions change vs the mold)

mRNA vaccine microfluidics
The bottlenecking part of production is getting the mRNA inside a protective membrane of lipids. There's spare manufacturing capacity where you could get extra tanks of mRNA/lipid/buffer waiting to be packaged and spare manufacturing for getting assembled bubbles into vials, the limiting part is doing the bubble assembly.

The assembly is done microfluidically. Each vaccine will have its own bespoke microfluidic chip design where you syringe pump in reagents at some particular flow rates+temperatures and the channel geometries make stuff fold into consistent assembled bubbles coming out the output. Unlike the research lab, you care about throughput and you care about quality. That means the chip design needs thousands of copies in parallel (just making it bigger would make it stop working) and you need a way to make it more reproducibly. This generally means photolithography etching glass to make the chips directly, similar to how semiconductor fab is photolithography for etching silicon (it has its own unique problems of course, since glass is not silicon and aspect ratios of the geometry being made are different).

Immediate production
None of this manufacturing looks anything like typical drug manufacturing or drug manufacturing equipment manufacturing and pharma companies don't have any relevant equipment or experience for it. They're outsourcing chipmaking to the few manufacturers that do do it. There aren't many of these, it's complicated and until recently hasn't had any mass manufacturing applications. If you were trying to set up a new vaccine factory, you'd hit a point in the process where you need to run stuff through a chip and be told "We get companies X, Y, Z to make these for us, we don't know of anyone else who can make them, and we're already buying the entire production". I don't think this is a developed vs developing world thing, it doesn't make sense to have a western pharma company set up a new factory either. If the entire world produces 1000 chips/day and the one existing vaccine factory can use all of that, it doesn't make sense to reduce the existing one to 900/day and try to set up a brand new factory elsewhere. Waiving the patent for the chip design doesn't get any more actual physical chips in existence.

Long term production
Since microfluidic mass production has an application now, factory capacity is going up and will continue going up. That takes time though. For comparison, a silicon semiconductor fab typically takes 2-3 years to go from start of construction to producing. ICs are a more complicated process because features are 10-100X smaller, but it's also a more well developed process that glass. There's also not really an IP barrier here. People know how to do lithography, machines just still have lead times to be made and it takes time to assemble and get everything working together so the endproduct is consistently good

Send the doses abroad. "Just remove the patent" doesn't do poo poo in any meaningful timeframe.

Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 05:24 on Sep 17, 2021

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:22

Sir John Falstaff: Apr 13, 2010

mod sassinator posted:

If we want to help the third world then let's remove the patent on the vaccines and let India crank out mRNA doses by the billions, like they have requested multiple times and we have denied.

The U.S. has backed that: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/29/explainer-what-are-covid-vaccine-patent-waivers

The U.K., Canada, Germany, Japan, the E.U., and others have not (at least, last I knew).

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:24

Platystemon: Feb 13, 2012; BREADS

Why are we endorsing N95 respirators in this topic?

Would that equipment not save many more lives in the the third world, where not even medical workers are provided such equipment?

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:24

Charles 2 of Spain: Nov 7, 2017

Stickman posted:

By "large enough sample size" I mean "large enough sample size of hospitalizations". There's always a lot fewer of those than cases! Israel's analysis is a great example because there's enough cases to have at least some evidence in decline vs detected infection, but not enough severe cases to really say much.

Thanks for mentioning those two studies, I hadn't seen them. The Portugal study (is this the one you meant?) actually looks relatively decent for deaths sample-wise but unfortunately they only have temporal analysis of 80+ folks, presumably because that's the only cohort with sufficient follow-up periods. They estimated 74% VE vs death for 80+ at >98 days, compared to 86 for the first month after full vaccination, but unfortunately there's no discussion about how much of that period overlaps Delta. The hospitalization estimates are weird because they had 91 breakthrough deaths but only 43 breakthrough vaccinations, which I guess means that most of the cohort received care outside of hospitals? Maybe at care centers? Either way I don't think there hospitalizations metrics are likely to be a good proxy for "severe disease" in that cohort, and I'm not really sure how to interpret those numbers without knowing more about how they are defined.

What is the Kaiser study? Nothing is popping up right was

The Kaiser one is behind a paywall, but I could get it from what appears to be Mexican government website. Seems to have around 12,000 hopsitalisations from a quick look:
https://salud.edomex.gob.mx/cevece/docs/covid/Six-month%20effectiveness%20of%20BNT162b2%20mRNA%20COVID-19%20vaccine.pdf

I mean you can pick holes in any study but given the weight of evidence we have so far, I'd say VE against severe disease holds up more than the opposite. Of course this could change in a few months.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:26

Professor Beetus: Apr 12, 2007; They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Fritz the Horse posted:

Actually it is entirely appropriate to critically appraise the claims made by vaccine manufacturers when many experts are unconvinced the boosters are necessary for the general population. It is not medical experts writ large aggressively pushing for boosters for the general population, it is the pharma companies. That is certainly not reason to invalidate their claims, but it is worth noting.

It's also irrelevant to bring up antivaxxers. We're talking about boosters for people who are already fully vaccinated. The actual cost-benefit analysis is along the lines of:

Do those third shots give enough of a boost to the US general population that it's worth devoting many tens of millions of doses to rollout at this time? Or would those doses be better used for the unvaxxed either here or in other nations? I mean, South Africa is having a hell of a time with the pandemic (among worst in Africa) and has high rates of HIV infection, for one example.

If the boosters are authorized and pushed for general population, how will that impact availability for high-risk populations and unvaccinated in the US?

Granted at this point I don't think you're reaching very many unvaxxed people in the US, but there will still be a trickle due to the recent mandates and worsening delta peak.

edit: my personal stake in this is that I was on a ventilator for three days and almost died in January 2020 for reasons unrelated to COVID. Due to those issues, I'm in a high-risk group and recommended to get a booster ASAP.

Because of that I'm a little concerned about the possibility of a rush on booster shots by the general population delaying boosters for the high-risk populations that definitely need them. Maybe that's unfounded and there's plenty of supply, but that's my own personal investment.

I think it is the responsibility of the US to deploy more vaccines to other countries ASAP. We hosed up our own response to begin with and hoarded vaccine. It is incredibly selfish and inhumane to hoover up booster shots for marginal effect when they could instead be used outside the country to save vastly more human life.

Like if the metric is "human lives saved" then ship them to Africa, holy poo poo are you kidding me?

I continue to find your posting great. IMO though, I live in an area where free walk in covid shots are everywhere with like zero wait, and I don't even think we're at 70% vaccinated. I honestly can't really give too much of a poo poo if someone wants to do something currently already being done for many Americans and many international citizens, because the doses that are already there are pretty much there.

That said please speak to your doctor and get their recommendation if that's an option available to you, before taking the advice of a stranger on the internet telling you it's totally cool.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:27

Thorn Wishes Talon: Oct 18, 2014; by Fluffdaddy

mod sassinator posted:

We paid for 600 million doses last year and another 200 million doses for boosters a couple months ago. There is zero supply pressure or concern for vaccines in the US. There is only a demand problem, and a policy problem not approving necessary boosters.

Vaccine and booster approvals are not "policy problems". The approval processes are specifically designed to not be susceptible to political pressure, for reasons that should be very obvious.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:27

Professor Beetus: Apr 12, 2007; They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Platystemon posted:

Why are we endorsing N95 respirators in this topic?

Would that equipment not save many more lives in the the third world, where not even medical workers are provided such equipment?

N95 masks are in plentiful supply on hardware store shelves in the US and those aren't going to end up all over the world because home Depot decides to ship them all to Africa or South America. A properly fitted N95 offers excellent protection and also protects others, unlike standard elastomeric options which will not protect others. N95s are currently listed in CDC recommendations. Please let me know if any of that is wrong.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:30

Charles 2 of Spain: Nov 7, 2017

Platystemon posted:

Why are we endorsing N95 respirators in this topic?

Would that equipment not save many more lives in the the third world, where not even medical workers are provided such equipment?

Yeah rich countries should be donating those too. China is.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:31

Platystemon: Feb 13, 2012; BREADS

Rich people don�t need the FDA or CDC to do anything to get their boosters. They don�t even have to lie about it.

Comirnaty is a fully approved pharmaceutical. The doctors that rich people have are more than willing to give them a prescription, and no board in the land would find such a thing professionally suspect.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:33

Stickman: Feb 1, 2004

The Pfizer phase 3 team apparently published their 6-month analysis yesterday. VE against detected infection decreased from 96% [93% to 98%] across the 2 months following full vaccination to 84% [75% to 90%] for 4+ months (with ~6 months max follow-up).

Unfortunately about half of each arm was lost to follow-up by 4 months, so randomization loses some of it's robustness. I suspect that much of the loss to follow-up was due to people becoming eligible for vaccination, meaning that older participants would have been lost first.

There were only 23 "severe" cases in the control arm and 1 in the vaccine arm, so no analysis of VE over time was possible (but average VE was 96%).

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:35

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

Professor Beetus posted:

IMO though, I live in an area where free walk in covid shots are everywhere with like zero wait, and I don't even think we're at 70% vaccinated.

In my area vaccine distribution is done through IHS (by appt) and they are quite swamped with actual COVID and other cases so the wait to get a vaccine dose is a week or more.

It's not a lack of dose supply locally so much as it is a very limited distribution infrastructure in remote/rural areas.

To circle back, what started this booster conversation was an article about the FDA pushing back its meeting to approve boosters by a couple weeks and the contention was that this is a massive failure of the administration and many HCW will die as a result.

I'll certainly change my tune if there are good data showing reduced efficacy of vaccines against severe disease but I haven't seen that yet. That seems to be what's prompting the disagreement from many experts: there aren't much data showing reduced effectiveness of (non-boostered) vaccines against severe disease, hospitalization, and death, so they're hesitant to support approval for general population when two-shot regimens are still preventing ICU cases and deaths equally well.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:38

wisconsingreg: Jan 13, 2019

Professor Beetus posted:

I continue to find your posting great. IMO though, I live in an area where free walk in covid shots are everywhere with like zero wait, and I don't even think we're at 70% vaccinated. I honestly can't really give too much of a poo poo if someone wants to do something currently already being done for many Americans and many international citizens, because the doses that are already there are pretty much there.

That said please speak to your doctor and get their recommendation if that's an option available to you, before taking the advice of a stranger on the internet telling you it's totally cool.

We're actually at 75% of eligible single vaxxed!

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:40

Charles 2 of Spain: Nov 7, 2017

Stickman posted:

The Pfizer phase 3 team apparently published their 6-month analysis yesterday. VE against detected infection decreased from 96% [93% to 98%] across the 2 months following full vaccination to 84% [75% to 90%] for 4+ months (with ~6 months max follow-up).

Unfortunately about half of each arm was lost to follow-up by 4 months, so randomization loses some of it's robustness. I suspect that much of the loss to follow-up was due to people becoming eligible for vaccination, meaning that older participants would have been lost first.

There were only 23 "severe" cases in the control arm and 1 in the vaccine arm, so no analysis of VE over time was possible (but average VE was 96%).

Should note this study was mainly pre-Delta surge, although Beta was included as well which could be more vaccine-evasive if I remember correctly.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:42

Platystemon: Feb 13, 2012; BREADS

Professor Beetus posted:

N95 masks are in plentiful supply on hardware store shelves in the US and those aren't going to end up all over the world because home Depot decides to ship them all to Africa or South America. A properly fitted N95 offers excellent protection and also protects others, unlike standard elastomeric options which will not protect others. N95s are currently listed in CDC recommendations. Please let me know if any of that is wrong.

No, that�s all right.

I have advocated for the general domestic use of real, rated PPE, including N95s, since long before the CDC�s quiet update of last week.

I find it analogous to vaccines. Getting a booster at Rite‐Aid is no ethically worse than buying a box of N95s at Home Depot, so long as one million doses are going in the trash every week. In a better world, there would be the option to move them on to where they�re needed more before expiry, but that�s just not happening because of societal failure.

And really, since N95s are far more transferrable overseas, it should be ethically worse. They can sit at room temperature for five years. If we wanted to, we could have N95 drives the way some communities have canned food drives. We just don�t care to because the pandemic is over, and also FYGM.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:45

Stickman: Feb 1, 2004

Charles 2 of Spain posted:

The Kaiser one is behind a paywall, but I could get it from what appears to be Mexican government website. Seems to have around 12,000 hopsitalisations from a quick look:
https://salud.edomex.gob.mx/cevece/docs/covid/Six-month%20effectiveness%20of%20BNT162b2%20mRNA%20COVID-19%20vaccine.pdf

I mean you can pick holes in any study but given the weight of evidence we have so far, I'd say VE against severe disease holds up more than the opposite. Of course this could change in a few months.

Thanks! My point is just that up to this Kaiser study, I hadn't seen a single analysis that could reasonably look at VE against severe disease over time, and most of the papers didn't even try. The Kaiser study at least seems like it has sufficient numbers and follow-up to say something, though.

E: Looks like the Kaiser study has been around for two weeks, whoops!

Charles 2 of Spain posted:

Should note this study was mainly pre-Delta surge, although Beta was included as well which could be more vaccine-evasive if I remember correctly.

Yeah, I meant to mention that. It's what makes this one pretty nice and rates more comparable! They sequenced South Africa cases and only found 9 Beta infections, so fortunately Beta was probably only around 1% total cases.

Stickman fucked around with this message at 06:06 on Sep 17, 2021

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:50

mod sassinator: Dec 13, 2006; I came here to Kick Ass and Chew Bubblegum,
and I'm All out of Ass

Fritz the Horse posted:

This is a red herring. India does not currently have the infrastructure to produce mRNA vaccines which require highly highly specialized equipment and staff to do things like the lipid encapsulation. It would take many many months or years for mRNA production to come online with patents waived and the companies actively engaged in tech transfer.

There was a goon in the previous iteration of this thread that was posting about the microfluidics chips needed to do the lipid encapsulation.

Send the doses abroad. "Just remove the patent" doesn't do poo poo in any meaningful timeframe.

Ok fine then let's let China do it. They are already planning on billions of mRNA doses from their vaccine next year.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:51

mod sassinator: Dec 13, 2006; I came here to Kick Ass and Chew Bubblegum,
and I'm All out of Ass

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

Vaccine and booster approvals are not "policy problems". The approval processes are specifically designed to not be susceptible to political pressure, for reasons that should be very obvious.

So does Israel just have a policy of 'we'd like our citizens to live healthy covid-free lives'? The boosters are open to all citizens in Israel right now. They are saving lives. Is our policy process just not as good as Israel and we have to live with more deaths?

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:53

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

mod sassinator posted:

Ok fine then let's let China do it. They are already planning on billions of mRNA doses from their vaccine next year.

I think we're going in circles. What is your argument? I don't want to mischaracterize it but it seems to be along the lines of: "everyone, especially HCW, should get boosters immediately and it is an immense failure of the US gov't that they have not already been authorized."

edit:

mod sassinator posted:

So does Israel just have a policy of 'we'd like our citizens to live healthy covid-free lives'? The boosters are open to all citizens in Israel right now. They are saving lives. Is our policy process just not as good as Israel and we have to live with more deaths?

this imo is the kicker. I have not seen good evidence that a two-shot vaccine regiment is less effective against severe illness, hospitalization, and death.

You are saying that boosters will save lives and so everyone (not just high-risk groups) should get them. Yes, the vaccine efficacy against breakthrough mild to moderate disease is waning. That's not the same as deaths.

Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 05:57 on Sep 17, 2021

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:54

mod sassinator: Dec 13, 2006; I came here to Kick Ass and Chew Bubblegum,
and I'm All out of Ass

Fritz the Horse posted:

I think we're going in circles. What is your argument? I don't want to mischaracterize it but it seems to be along the lines of: "everyone, especially HCW, should get boosters immediately and it is an immense failure of the US gov't that they have not already been authorized."

Joe Biden told us boosters would be ready September 20th. We've all operated under this assumption and taken risks like going back to office, to school, etc. under this assumption.

Now about 48 hours from that deadline it turns out the Whitehouse did not do it's homework. That the promise of boosters was either a lie or a gross miscalculation.

This is not a policy decision that should evaporate out of the blue or with no notice. What has materially changed between when Biden announced the booster plans and today? Nothing. It's a clear cut failure of the admins to do the work before making the statement. And now we all suffer because we were lied to that boosters are starting next week.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 05:58

mod sassinator: Dec 13, 2006; I came here to Kick Ass and Chew Bubblegum,
and I'm All out of Ass

And please, the promise of "well you won't get severe disease" is a sick loving joke. 'Mild' covid can include everything up to getting a ventilator jammed down your throat.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 06:01

poll plane variant: Jan 12, 2021; by sebmojo

Fritz the Horse posted:

I think we're going in circles. What is your argument? I don't want to mischaracterize it but it seems to be along the lines of: "everyone, especially HCW, should get boosters immediately and it is an immense failure of the US gov't that they have not already been authorized."

edit:

this imo is the kicker. I have not seen good evidence that a two-shot vaccine regiment is less effective against severe illness, hospitalization, and death.

You are saying that boosters will save lives and so everyone (not just high-risk groups) should get them. Yes, the vaccine efficacy against breakthrough mild to moderate disease is waning. That's not the same as deaths.

Mild-to-moderate covid is a miserable and terrifying ordeal that can lead to substantial disability (at least for months) in a significant number of cases. If you're looking at damaging the lungs/hearts/brains of even 5% of your population, in many cases repeatedly, what are you losing by boosting with safe, cheap, effective vaccines to maintain antibody levels at least until case numbers are low (which an 80-90% reduction in infection also helps achieve)? The economic costs alone of a debilitating endemic are staggering. We literally cannot afford another flu or malaria.

edit: my only reservation in the US is hitting people en masse, especially young people, with full-strength Moderna doses, but I believe we have done it in trials and to enough 'booster bandits' to where it is better than covid even if it's not as documented as the 3rd Pfizer dose used in a country that actually tracks anything at all about breakthroughs etc.

poll plane variant fucked around with this message at 06:04 on Sep 17, 2021

# ? Sep 17, 2021 06:01

Suck Moredickis: Sep 12, 2021; by Epic High Five

mod sassinator posted:

And please, the promise of "well you won't get severe disease" is a sick loving joke. 'Mild' covid can include everything up to getting a ventilator jammed down your throat.

...no. No it cannot. The definition of "mild" or "moderate" covid is that it doesn't require hospitalization.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 06:03

Professor Beetus: Apr 12, 2007; They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Vasukhani posted:

We're actually at 75% of eligible single vaxxed!

Oh poo poo, thanks for the good news! I was already feeling really good at the mask compliance the last time I was at the grocery store.

Fritz the Horse posted:

In my area vaccine distribution is done through IHS (by appt) and they are quite swamped with actual COVID and other cases so the wait to get a vaccine dose is a week or more.

It's not a lack of dose supply locally so much as it is a very limited distribution infrastructure in remote/rural areas.

That sucks and I'm sorry it's like that on your reservation. Thanks for all your input in this thread.

Platystemon posted:

No, that’s all right.

I have advocated for the general domestic use of real, rated PPE, including N95s, since long before the CDC’s quiet update of last week.

I find it analogous to vaccines. Getting a booster at Rite‐Aid is no ethically worse than buying a box of N95s at Home Depot, so long as one million doses are going in the trash every week. In a better world, there would be the option to move them on to where they’re needed more before expiry, but that’s just not happening because of societal failure.

And really, since N95s are far more transferrable overseas, it should be ethically worse. They can sit at room temperature for five years. If we wanted to, we could have N95 drives the way some communities have canned food drives. We just don’t care to because the pandemic is over, and also FYGM.

I think we're pretty much in line then. I try to live as ethically as I can but sometimes you have to weigh the benefit of your individual action vs the safety or harm reduction benefits to yourself. If we weren't currently in a one income situation I'd definitely be looking into some of those donation sources in the OP, and I recommend any goon with more resources at their disposal to check it out.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 06:05

jetz0r: May 10, 2003; Tomorrow, our nation will sit on the throne of the world. This is not a figment of the imagination, but a fact. Tomorrow we will lead the world, Allah willing.

mod sassinator posted:

And please, the promise of "well you won't get severe disease" is a sick loving joke. 'Mild' covid can include everything up to getting a ventilator jammed down your throat.

And don't forget that this is America, where a week in a hospital will easily cost a quarter million dollars, or maybe only $50,000 if you have insurance. So in addition to suffering through the sickness and any potential long term effects, merely going to a hospital is financial ruination for the working class here.

# ? Sep 17, 2021 06:06

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# ? May 24, 2024 21:53

Platystemon: Feb 13, 2012; BREADS

Suck Moredickis posted:

...no. No it cannot. The definition of "mild" or "moderate" covid is that it doesn't require hospitalization.

Yeah you can be on oxygen with a ❝ 𝓂𝒾𝓁𝒹 ❞ case, but I don�t see outpatient ventilation happening.

e: This is how it was really loving obvious that Downing Street was lying when Johnson went to hospital �for oxygen�. Oxygen can be administered at home. The only reasons a person of such means goes to the hospital is for something that can�t be brought to them, potentially an NMRI but the top suspect was rightly the ventilator.

Platystemon fucked around with this message at 06:11 on Sep 17, 2021

# ? Sep 17, 2021 06:08

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

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