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StrangeThing
Aug 23, 2021

by Hand Knit

freebooter posted:

Bad outcome - global mass vaccination against original strain and Delta but opening back up and letting it circulate asymptomatically results in a spicy new vaccine-resistant variant and the world finds itself back at square one with lockdowns and border closures etc.

I think I find both of these more plausible than the "COVID is here to stay but vaccines make it OK" status quo, because neither vaccine research nor the virus' evolution have come to a standstill.

Why does everyone keep suggesting there will be a variant that is completely resistent to vaccines? It's bizarre, no scientist is saying this is going to happen. Existing vaccines can be changed to attack new variants.

Breetai posted:

Thanks for the responses everyone, I'm feeling a whole lot less imminently deathy.

Stay away from reading poo poo like CSPAM or doomerism on these forums, a lot of people here just want to read into the worst possible scenario for every COVID-related topic. E.g. If you get COVID you WILL great brain damage, etc.

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hooman
Oct 11, 2007

This guy seems legit.
Fun Shoe

Malcolm Turnbeug posted:

Individual action can't solve this problem but that's not the same thing as 'individual actions can't make this any worse by entrenching it as accepted behaviour' and it's wild how often moral dilemmas around capitalism are simply people's inability to acknowledge that

Yeah but the problem is that by that logic, don't own shares, because you're entrenching the acceptableness of infinitely growth and infinite profit. Don't have a superannuation fund because they invest in shares, therefore making it acceptable. Don't buy electronic consumables because they're made in slave worker conditions, same with most clothing. Don't use any electricity or any transportation because fossil fuels are going to kill millions. There is no ethical consumption under capitalism, and individual action cannot fix systemic problems.

Basically we all draw our own line at what we consider ethical and what we don't. There's obvious examples of unnecessarily unethical (slavery) and necessarily unethical (consumption of fossil fuels/electricity), but where we each draw the line in needing to look after our personal wellbeing is individual.

Phigs
Jan 23, 2019

StrangeThing posted:

This is some pretty serious fear-mongering. Pfizer effectiveness reduces against transmission, yes, but maintains its effectiveness against serious disease and death.

The Melbourne roadmap is completely reasonable and I've yet to see a realistic alternative..

Health workers are going to be under threat of exposure constantly and we can't afford to have them take time off sick during a pandemic regardless of how their sickness ends. Giving them the best chance of avoiding infection is a good thing even if we ignore the reduction of suffering as being an upside in itself.



Also if the government listened to CSPAM we wouldn't be having these problems at all so I'm not sure why doomerism is so bad. Kinda feels like a bunch of powerful people being relentlessly positive (or not giving a poo poo) about COVID is what got us into this mess. The world could use some more loving doomerism if you ask me. If you personally can't take the mental toll then fair enough go take a break and take care of yourself, but the rest of us probably should be dooming it up.

Jezza of OZPOS
Mar 21, 2018

GET LOSE❌🗺️, YOUS CAN'T COMPARE😤 WITH ME 💪POWERS🇦🇺

hooman posted:

Yeah but the problem is that by that logic, don't own shares, because you're entrenching the acceptableness of infinitely growth and infinite profit. Don't have a superannuation fund because they invest in shares, therefore making it acceptable. Don't buy electronic consumables because they're made in slave worker conditions, same with most clothing. Don't use any electricity or any transportation because fossil fuels are going to kill millions. There is no ethical consumption under capitalism, and individual action cannot fix systemic problems.

Basically we all draw our own line at what we consider ethical and what we don't. There's obvious examples of unnecessarily unethical (slavery) and necessarily unethical (consumption of fossil fuels/electricity), but where we each draw the line in needing to look after our personal wellbeing is individual.

That's fine but its also extremely pathetic to make a big deal about where your line is and then shifting it dramatically the second you have the equity to participate in this particular form of inequality that specifically affects the real circumstances of a lot of people

alf_pogs
Feb 15, 2012


hooman posted:

Basically we all draw our own line at what we consider ethical and what we don't. There's obvious examples of unnecessarily unethical (slavery) and necessarily unethical (consumption of fossil fuels/electricity), but where we each draw the line in needing to look after our personal wellbeing is individual.

i agree with this as a broad principle, but for this specific situation, i think participating in the investment property game assumes a degree of wealth or financial stability large enough to indicate someone's personal wellbeing is okay

i dunno though. the whole system is hosed, you have to have a bit of "hate the game not the player" about it

Lolie
Jun 4, 2010

AUSGBS Thread Mum

freebooter posted:


I think I find both of these more plausible than the "COVID is here to stay but vaccines make it OK" status quo, because neither vaccine research nor the virus' evolution have come to a standstill.

I think this is exactly what people were expecting towards the end of last year - that we'd all get vaxxed and be back to our normal lives by half way through 2021 and they're absolutely furious that it hasn't turned out to be the reality (for reasons which are largely beyond the control of any government in the world).

evilbastard
Mar 6, 2003

Hair Elf
As the shine is beginning to come off the SUUKA Submarine plan, with the government revealing that they will be built overseas, with the option for some of them to be assembled in Whyalla, this dropped yesterday

quote:

The short-term leasing of nuclear-powered submarines from the UK or the US is being considered by the Morrison government but the Coalition insists nuclear weapons won’t be based in Australia.

The finance minister, Simon Birmingham, and the defence minister, Peter Dutton, confirmed in seperate interviews on Sunday that leasing submarines from the Aukus allies could be a stop-gap solution until Australia takes delivery of its own – potentially in the 2040s.

“The short answer is yes,” Dutton said when asked on Sky News about leasing vessels.

So the Government looks like they are going to repeat the F-111 Program, where after the cost and delivery times blew out the US apologised by kindly letting us pay even more money ($41 million then, $290 million in 2021) to lease 24 completely different aircraft - the F-4E Phantom - for 4 years. We gave 23 of them back and paid for the one we broke, because Malcolm Fraser forgot to tick the box for extended crash insurance.

The catch here is there is not a lot of options on the slightly-used nuclear submarine market.

The most likely option are the USS Providence and USS Oklahoma City, both of which will be decommissioned in the next year - but these are 40 year old boats already. To give an idea, the last Oberon class submarine (HMAS Orion) was started in 1972 - and this sub was retired and replaced with the Collins class.

Also, a Los Angeles class needs 143 people to crew it - or three times the crew of a Collins class, so we would need to strip 3 Collins class subs to crew a single 688.

So what I can see, this is what is available at Uncle Biden's Crazy Used Submarine Emporium - sorted by service life. Note that the Los Angeles need a midlife refuelling after 20 years of service, and that will take a minimum of 18 months.


code:
Hull                            Laid down    Service life                     Status
----                           ---------    ------------                     ------		
SSN-719 Providence              14-Oct-1982                                   Decommission 2021
SSN-723 Oklahoma City           04-Jan-1984                                   Decommission 2022
SSN-704 Baltimore               21-May-1979  15 years, 11 months and 16 days  Pending Disposal
SSN-712 Atlanta                 17-Aug-1978  17 years, 9 months and 10 days   Pending Disposal
SSN-696 New York City           15-Dec-1973  18 years, 1 month and 27 days    Pending Disposal
SSN-697 Indianapolis            19-Oct-1974  18 years, 11 months and 17 days  Pending Disposal
SSN-707 Portsmouth              08-May-1980  20 years, 11 months and 9 days   Pending Disposal
SSN-709 Hyman G. Rickover       24-Jul-1981  22 years, 4 months and 23 days   Pending Disposal
SSN-755 Miami                   24-Oct-1986  23 years, 8 months and 28 days   Pending Disposal
SSN-710 Augusta                 01-Apr-1983  24 years and 23 days             Pending Disposal
SSN-708 Minneapolis-Saint Paul  20-Jan-1981  24 years, 5 months and 18 days   Pending Disposal
SSN-714 Norfolk                 01-Aug-1979  31 years, 6 months and 20 days   Pending Disposal
SSN-690 Philadelphia            12-Aug-1972  33 years, 0 months and 0 days    Pending Disposal
SSN-713 Houston                 29-Jan-1979  33 years, 11 months and 1 day    Pending Disposal
SSN-691 Memphis                 23-Jun-1973  33 years, 3 months and 15 days   Pending Disposal
SSN-706 Albuquerque             27-Dec-1979  33 years, 9 months and 6 days    Pending Disposal
SSN-724 Louisville              24-Sep-1984  34 years, 4 months and 1 day     Pending Disposal
SSN-720 Pittsburgh              15-Apr-1983  34 years, 4 months and 23 days   Pending Disposal
SSN-715 Buffalo                 25-Jan-1980  35 years, 2 months and 25 days   Pending Disposal
SSN-717 Olympia                 31-Mar-1981  36 years, 2 months and 19 days   Pending Disposal
SSN-700 Dallas                  09-Oct-1976  36 years, 8 months and 17 days   Pending Disposal
SSN-698 Bremerton               08-May-1976  40 years, 1 month and 23 days    Pending Disposal

I'm sure the US will send over a DVD copy of The Hunt for Red October with a recommendation we get the USS Dallas, and someone will approve it because it was in a movie.

hooman
Oct 11, 2007

This guy seems legit.
Fun Shoe

Malcolm Turnbeug posted:

That's fine but its also extremely pathetic to make a big deal about where your line is and then shifting it dramatically the second you have the equity to participate in this particular form of inequality that specifically affects the real circumstances of a lot of people

Yeah, that is a fair criticism to make of that Labor person. Big pulling the ladder up after you energy.

hooman fucked around with this message at 02:07 on Sep 20, 2021

ModernMajorGeneral
Jun 25, 2010

hooman posted:

Yeah but the problem is that by that logic, don't own shares, because you're entrenching the acceptableness of infinitely growth and infinite profit. Don't have a superannuation fund because they invest in shares, therefore making it acceptable. Don't buy electronic consumables because they're made in slave worker conditions, same with most clothing. Don't use any electricity or any transportation because fossil fuels are going to kill millions. There is no ethical consumption under capitalism, and individual action cannot fix systemic problems.

Basically we all draw our own line at what we consider ethical and what we don't. There's obvious examples of unnecessarily unethical (slavery) and necessarily unethical (consumption of fossil fuels/electricity), but where we each draw the line in needing to look after our personal wellbeing is individual.

While I broadly agree with this and I don't think property investors are murderous capitalists relative to struggling-workers-trying-to-survive corporate shareholders, there's something more distasteful about property investing on the individual level. Part of it is that it requires a level of financial privilege that is not necessary for any of these other things, but also that you probably know people whose lives have been made worse by property investors specifically. If you buy an investment property you might meet some of the people you are screwing over when you go to inspect the property, and if you decided not to buy the property owner-occupiers who might live in it instead could be directly better off (although I accept that these potential owner-occupiers also are necessarily fairly financially privileged and another investor might just buy it). This is slightly different to buying shares in a company where your decision to buy shares only harms people in a general participation in capitalism sense and your decision to buy shares or not doesn't really make any difference to any identifiable person.

StrangeThing
Aug 23, 2021

by Hand Knit

Phigs posted:

Health workers are going to be under threat of exposure constantly and we can't afford to have them take time off sick during a pandemic regardless of how their sickness ends. Giving them the best chance of avoiding infection is a good thing even if we ignore the reduction of suffering as being an upside in itself.

I don't disagree.

quote:

Also if the government listened to CSPAM we wouldn't be having these problems at all

I personally don't think "get the vaccine or we shoot you" is a great policy, but try it and let me know how it goes.

Doomerism isn't warranted. The vaccines are excellent at preventing serious injury and death. We have survived pandemics before, we will survive this one. Instead of doomerism we should have realistic and reasonable plans to reduce the pressure on the health care system.

Phigs
Jan 23, 2019

I meant more in terms of quarantining and locking down hard and fast and mask mandates and the like. We wouldn't have even needed the vaccine if we had proper quarantine and lockdown protocols in place early.

I mean they're loosening an already compromised quarantine system for international travel in NSW. That's insane.

Lolie
Jun 4, 2010

AUSGBS Thread Mum
NSW new cases are back under 1000 and 20% of 12-15 year olds have received their first dose. A good start to the week.

Phigs
Jan 23, 2019

ModernMajorGeneral posted:

While I broadly agree with this and I don't think property investors are murderous capitalists relative to struggling-workers-trying-to-survive corporate shareholders, there's something more distasteful about property investing on the individual level. [...]

Yeah the big thing for me is that when you buy investment property to rent as homes you literally, directly make housing cost more by paying more than the next person would have.

StrangeThing
Aug 23, 2021

by Hand Knit

Phigs posted:

I meant more in terms of quarantining and locking down hard and fast and mask mandates and the like. We wouldn't have even needed the vaccine if we had proper quarantine and lockdown protocols in place early.

I mean they're loosening an already compromised quarantine system for international travel in NSW. That's insane.

I definitely don't disagree about the problems with international quarantine, but VIctoria at least locked down hard and early, especially this time. Yet our oubreak is growing faster than NSW. I'm open to suggestions about what else can be done.

I'd actually argue home quarantine is safer than hotel quarantine, but that's a separate discussion.

Lolie posted:

NSW new cases are back under 1000 and 20% of 12-15 year olds have received their first dose. A good start to the week.

Excellent.

Phigs
Jan 23, 2019

StrangeThing posted:

I'd actually argue home quarantine is safer than hotel quarantine, but that's a separate discussion.

I'm not opposed to your argument here in general but I don't have enough trust in the NSW government to imagine they'll do it in a way that is, or that they're doing it for the reason that it is, safer. It feels more like it's a part of their open up strategy and they're doing it because it requires less effort on their part and frees up the hotels for usual business as we open up.

StrangeThing
Aug 23, 2021

by Hand Knit

Phigs posted:

I'm not opposed to your argument here in general but I don't have enough trust in the NSW government to imagine they'll do it in a way that is, or that they're doing it for the reason that it is, safer. It feels more like it's a part of their open up strategy and they're doing it because it requires less effort on their part and opens up the hotels for usual business as we open up.

Well, Victoria is doing a similar thing.

Solemn Sloth
Jul 11, 2015

Baby you can shout at me,
But you can't need my eyes.
One of my co-workers got a notification about visiting a tier 2 exposure site (isolate until negative result) 15 days after the exposure lol

Halo14
Sep 11, 2001
https://twitter.com/joshburnsmp/status/1439713620904972289?s=21

Lolie
Jun 4, 2010

AUSGBS Thread Mum

Phigs posted:

I'm not opposed to your argument here in general but I don't have enough trust in the NSW government to imagine they'll do it in a way that is, or that they're doing it for the reason that it is, safer. It feels more like it's a part of their open up strategy and they're doing it because it requires less effort on their part and frees up the hotels for usual business as we open up.

Home quarantine didn't work for any state last time around. This time around the plan is to use technology to help ensure people are where they should be and no just rely on compliance visits by police/ADF.

We're still going to need alternative locations for people to quarantine. Not every average house is suitable for isolating from other occupants.

adeadcrab
Feb 1, 2006

Objectifying women is cool and normal

And I oop-

Halo14
Sep 11, 2001
Maybe we can ask France for some more…

Lolie
Jun 4, 2010

AUSGBS Thread Mum

quote:

ACT chief minister Andrew Barr says the territory will not be receiving the increase of Pfizer doses it was originally promised from the federal government due to limitations in supply:

The current advice from the commonwealth is that we will not see supply of Pfizer to the ACT government program reduced between September and October as had been indicated in the papers to national cabinet last Friday. However, we will also not see the increase in supply that had been projected for the ACT between September and October/November.

So increased supply of mRNA vaccines to the ACT is now currently all projected to be in primary care, that is Pfizer to GPs and Moderna to pharmacies.

Therefore, if you are looking to get an early appointment for your 12- to 15-year-old to get vaccinated, we would strongly encourage you to consider doing that through a GP or a pharmacist.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...f0887fe13f5758e

quote:

Hundreds of thousands of Moderna vaccine appointments will soon be available to Victorians, as the state speeds up its vaccination efforts.

On Monday, Victoria recorded its highest number of COVID-19 cases in the current outbreak with 567 new locally acquired cases and one death - a Moreland woman in her 70s.

More than 300,000 Moderna vaccines will be delivered to pharmacies across Victoria this month, with more expected in October and November.

"The Moderna vaccine is available from later this week and there's a lot of it," Premier Daniel Andrews told reporters in Melbourne.

https://thewest.com.au/politics/vic-plan-to-reopen-criticised-by-business-c-4010776

The people who are going to get screwed over are those who had their first dose of Pfizer at a mass vaccination centre with their second dose booked for 6 weeks. Second doses weren't reserved for those people. The aim was to get as many first doses into people as possible.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

So since nobody seems to know what the TTI plan is here, what are other countries doing? Have they ever even really bothered with it? I know the UK said if you're fully vaccinated you no longer have to isolate if you're a close contact, but they also had people disabling/ignoring their app because it was going haywire because there was so much COVID about. Does Denmark or Ireland or any of the other highly vaxxed countries bother with TTI anymore? Did they ever in the first place?

Phigs posted:

I'm not opposed to your argument here in general but I don't have enough trust in the NSW government to imagine they'll do it in a way that is, or that they're doing it for the reason that it is, safer. It feels more like it's a part of their open up strategy and they're doing it because it requires less effort on their part and frees up the hotels for usual business as we open up.

Forcing incoming travellers (who are still all Australian citizens/residents) into hotel quarantine which they have to stump up for themselves was justifiable when the country was a COVID-free paradise. When Sydney has been recording 1,000+ cases a day for weeks and the virus is rampant in the community, and the government has conceded it's here to stay, it no longer seems proportionate or justifiable.

If a few dozen COVID-positive passengers arrive per day in a locked-down city and we ask them to isolate for two weeks at home rather than being in a hotel, and maybe one or two of them break the rules and have mates over or go to the shops, who cares? It's a drop in the ocean. Being a hotel security guard or a quarantining traveller over the past couple of weeks must have been Kafkaesque.

Lolie posted:

The people who are going to get screwed over are those who had their first dose of Pfizer at a mass vaccination centre with their second dose booked for 6 weeks. Second doses weren't reserved for those people.

Where have you read this? That's precisely the opposite of how I understood it to work - first doses automatically reserve a second dose (if not a precise appointment date) which is why the availability of first appointments could be so random (because they were based on current stockpile availability, not projected availability).

Lolie
Jun 4, 2010

AUSGBS Thread Mum

freebooter posted:


Where have you read this? That's precisely the opposite of how I understood it to work - first doses automatically reserve a second dose (if not a precise appointment date) which is why the availability of first appointments could be so random (because they were based on current stockpile availability, not projected availability).

Chant and Gladys said verbally that they were making getting first doses in as many arms in NSW as possible their priority when they opened up Pfizer at the mass vaccination hubs and the gap between doses was pushed out. It seemed a safe strategy at the time as Australia as due to start receiving larger shipments of Pfizer which would cover the second doses. The vaccine swaps we've done will likely also affect how much Pfizer stock we'll have available in the next few months.

https://twitter.com/edengillespie/status/1439767149812224000

Lolie fucked around with this message at 03:59 on Sep 20, 2021

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Oh I was talking about Vic, never mind

Stoca Zola
Jun 28, 2008

evilbastard posted:

As the shine is beginning to come off the SUUKA Submarine plan, with the government revealing that they will be built overseas, with the option for some of them to be assembled in Whyalla, this dropped yesterday


Where did the suggestion that anything would be assembled in Whyalla come from? Pretty sure there's no capacity for that here, thought it would be in Adelaide if anywhere.

ssmagus
Apr 2, 2010
Assmagus, LPer ass-traordinaire
Just for easy steel from the steelworks to wield it together or something

evilbastard
Mar 6, 2003

Hair Elf

Stoca Zola posted:

Where did the suggestion that anything would be assembled in Whyalla come from? Pretty sure there's no capacity for that here, thought it would be in Adelaide if anywhere.

Actual reason : Mental Brainfart

masterpine
Dec 3, 2014


I'm fully expecting the submarine deal to end up being the US just gaining the ability to park a bunch of new Virginia class subs at the Perth/HMAS Stirling base with a few token RAN members serving aboard. Some part of that deal will be Australia acquiring them after a couple of decades which will not actually happen because people will have forgotten.

We already have US Marines stationed in the NT, this just opens the door further for US forces to post themselves 'legitimately' in more strategically important regions and put pressure on the South China Sea. If we had competent leaders we could gain a fair bit by giving up this sort of sovereignty but lol.

StrangeThing
Aug 23, 2021

by Hand Knit
The submarine component is probably the least important and interesting part of the deal tbh.

Synthbuttrange
May 6, 2007

quote:

NSW police never started investigating Christian Porter rape allegation, internal review reveals

MysticalMachineGun
Apr 5, 2005


What a loving surprise

BrigadierSensible
Feb 16, 2012

I've got a pocket full of cheese🧀, and a garden full of trees🌴.


So they just waited for the victim to kill herself, then shrugged their shoulders and said "Well nothing we can do now."?

It bothers me so much that it was not the fact that he was a rapist that forced him to resign from the Ministership, but the fact that he doesn't want to say who paid his legal bills, in a spurious defamation lawsuit against the public broadcaster.

This may be a hot take: but gently caress Christian Porter, and drat the system that has enabled a fuckstain like him to be allowed to exist.

Sierra Madre
Dec 24, 2011

But getting to it. That's not the hard part.

It's letting go.

There's some questioning how many people there are legit CFMEU members.

https://twitter.com/tom_tanuki/status/1439780040565084162?s=21

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

How the gently caress did we go from vaccination being widely accepted as a miracle of medical science to a solid 1 in 5 or 1 in 6 people kneejerk rejecting it because they think it'll give them autism or something? In, like, the space of one or two generations?

Lolie
Jun 4, 2010

AUSGBS Thread Mum
https://twitter.com/SenatorWong/status/1439780073532366851

Laserface
Dec 24, 2004

freebooter posted:

How the gently caress did we go from vaccination being widely accepted as a miracle of medical science to a solid 1 in 5 or 1 in 6 people kneejerk rejecting it because they think it'll give them autism or something? In, like, the space of one or two generations?

Jenny McCarthy, Pete Evans, Qanon probably.

EoinCannon
Aug 29, 2008

Grimey Drawer
There's been vaccine scepticism as long as there's been vaccines.
We have the internet now though, and diseases are less rampant in general so people think this is the natural state of things and not an achievement of medical science

Paingod556
Nov 8, 2011

Not a problem, sir

freebooter posted:

How the gently caress did we go from vaccination being widely accepted as a miracle of medical science to a solid 1 in 5 or 1 in 6 people kneejerk rejecting it because they think it'll give them autism or something? In, like, the space of one or two generations?

Basically one doctor abused children and then sparked off a media circus in order to get rich from his own vaccine. Hbomber has the full run down, it was severely hosed

https://youtu.be/8BIcAZxFfrc

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kirbysuperstar
Nov 11, 2012

Let the fools who stand before us be destroyed by the power you and I possess.

no...no!!!!

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