(Thread IKs:
ZShakespeare)
|
eXXon posted:Tell me more about the sincerity of the Liberal climate change plan after they spent how much buying Trans Mountain? This is actually a big problem with the NDP's climate talk this election, they focused way too often on saying poo poo like this and not enough on a substantive climate plan that 1) was well thought out and 2) diverged enough from the Liberals. I really don't think "they bought a pipeline" moves the needle with the general electorate like it does with more online individuals.
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 18:00
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 02:47 |
|
|
Our ICU is at double it's intended capacity and the hospital is close to meltdown. The local 80% empty mall has decided to save itself by inviting a skeezy carnival company to have a carnival in their parking lot with machines that have been sitting for 2 years. https://parklandmall.ca/events/parkland-mall-midway-rides-with-wild-rose-shows It's mostly outdoors which isn't a big deal but the haunted house and spinny vomit ride are probably gonna get really covidy really quickly.
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 18:06
|
|
|
enki42 posted:Fundamentally the NDP will never win by trying to be a compromise, centrist, wishy washy party because the Liberals have honing that for 150 years. The question is, how large is the potential NDP support base? To me the 2011 election that put Harper into power is the peak that the NDP could achieve electorally as long as the Liberal party exists. Like if O'Toole survives his leadership challenge and jettisons the SoCons to the PPC it's very possible that the Liberal party could become irrelevant on their next scandal because it'll become palatable for diverse middle class suburbanites to vote for the CPC instead. The SoCon factor is the conservatives' biggest electoral liability so really for there to be enough oxygen for the NDP to tack left and be a credible party we have to discredit and destroy the liberal party in co-operation with the CPC. I do not believe climate or economic ideology is going to play a factor in policy until a lot of the boomers get squeezed out and the zoomers become the ones who make up the 24-35 year old age bracket.
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 18:06
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:Even still I don't think debates impact election results much. Debates are overrated, but I think they set the narrative for the next morning and subsequent few days of coverage. leftist heap posted:I dunno what sort of strategist is gonna overcome the fact that the consent manufacturing apparatus is largely 100% set against them no matter what they do. I mean, I don't think the NDP had any sort of expectation or plan for how they'd deal with any push back on their plan. Certainly they didn't have any experts that were in their corner that they could bring out. Doesn't seem like the NDP strategists were prepared for a push back on the message. They should have been.
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 18:09
|
|
|
Powershift posted:It's mostly outdoors which isn't a big deal Didn't they say the same thing about the Stampede?
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 18:09
|
|
|
ZeeBoi posted:Didn't they say the same thing about the Stampede? The stampede had people faking proof of vax to get into the packed indoor bars and music venues. 
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 18:10
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:The question is, how large is the potential NDP support base? You're not wrong, but also the NDP is never going to grow that base by pretending they're the Liberal party, because we already have one of those, and their leader even has nice hair and everything. I think there's an outside chance that the NDP can find a message that resonates with disenfranchised people who currently aren't voting. I hold no illusions that this is likely, or even that it will win them government if they do find something like that, but it's the only realistic plan in my mind to actually grow their voting base (rather than just relying on Liberal scandals where they can scoop up whatever voters don't bleed to the Tories)
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 18:14
|
|
|
Normy posted:The calls for strategic voting overwhelmingly come from Liberals and they ignore this distinction. Which is how you get long time, popular, NDP MPs defeated by Liberals when people are convinced they must vote for Trudeau to beat Harper/Scheer/etc. in the most important election of our lifetimes. My facebook feed was full of conservatives screaming that a vote for the PPC was a vote for Trudeau. I don't recall seeing anybody saying 'A vote for the NDP is a vote for O'Toole.' As was the front page of the Toronto Sun, now that I think of it. Sept 17:
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 18:16
|
|
|
Femtosecond posted:Debates are overrated, but I think they set the narrative for the next morning and subsequent few days of coverage. They don't have any of these expectations because all the career strategists and capable people already work for the Liberals and can expect lucrative contracts and job offers when elections are concluded... A lot of careers were made on election night. I think this is the biggest problem we face if we want any kind of left wing movement. We lack ambitious power players. We no longer have someone like Huey Long who can take control of various functions of a given region or community and build a political machine out of it. There are no politically savvy players in the NDP unless they're embarrassed liberals or cons who were disgraced by their party and joined the NDP out of spite. Capital has a way of buying out any asset that might potentially be used against them because being poor in a capitalist world has absolutely zero dignity or respect. Even authoritarian feudal systems had at least a cultural idea of the poor still being taken care of by their lords and kings who acted as father protector, with the church being the beacon of hope and charity for these communities. That no longer exists. If you're poor you have to hustle and if you break the ceiling, life can be pretty good. Or if it isn't good it'll feel like life is constantly dangling that career progression carrot in front of you that a lot of the nice things can be achievable with cheap debt or other means. Now that hamster wheel is coming off its axle because of the high housing costs. Simply put, it doesn't pay to be smart and talented in the NDP, but it can be extremely lucrative everywhere else. History still hasn't given us the perfect storm for a charismatic political outsider who can either capture a massive chunk of media attention or simply seize power for themselves and their ideology. Donald Trump stumbled into such an opportunity and I think the hero the left is looking for probably comes from someone who is rich enough to be financially independent and ideological enough that they can be a class traitor. Kraftwerk fucked around with this message at 18:25 on Sep 22, 2021 |
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 18:19
|
|
|
TheCenturion posted:My facebook feed was full of conservatives screaming that a vote for the PPC was a vote for Trudeau. I don't recall seeing anybody saying 'A vote for the NDP is a vote for O'Toole.' Oh yeah the Conservatives absolutely pulled it this election. And the Mulcair NDP did try it but the polls tipped for Trudeau. I'm basing my impression off tweets and tiktok comments in reply to anything pro-NDP in this cycle.
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 18:47
|
|
|
Le Saboteur posted:The NDP have been performing way stronger than they do nationally in student polls at least since the late 90s-early 00s when I was participating in them. maybe im all mixed up, but i remember being a kid and liking the ndp and feeling like they got a lot less support nationally (they certainly did provincially in ontario) 20 years ago than they do now. its been very slow but i feel like their base has been building. do we know how many votes were nationally cast for them in previous federal elections spanning the past 30 years? id really like to have some faith that boomers dying off and kids holding their convictions could push us left as long as singh keeps trying to reach out to them during his tenure and the party itself doesn't implode in the next decade or two. though i will say speaking of singh reaching out to "the kids", he tried doingone of those group twitch streams just before the election and while hes a plenty personable guy, it was also a complete failure? he just kept saying to go vote. why didnt he try talking about his platform at all? he was in a group of left leaning streamers, it only really came up because hasan's internet kept making GBS threads itself so they had downtime while he was fixing it and even then it was just "ive been doing campaign stops and people keep coming up to me and saying [NDP PLANK] matters to me so thank you for having it." no explanation of what the planks really mean, no explanation of opposition policy or pitch on what makes the NDP policy superior. just nothing. the biggest issue with the NDP to me is that there never feels like anyone that actually wants to win the whole loving thing. its always this "just glad to be here, hope we do well this time!" kinda vibe. the party needs a vicious shark for a leader, not someone gladhanding.
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 19:56
|
|
|
Paper Lion posted:do we know how many votes were nationally cast for them in previous federal elections spanning the past 30 years? You can find the current totals here: https://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e I believe you can get the previous totals off Wikipedia with links to the sources
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 20:10
|
|
|
Paper Lion posted:maybe im all mixed up, but i remember being a kid and liking the ndp and feeling like they got a lot less support nationally (they certainly did provincially in ontario) 20 years ago than they do now. its been very slow but i feel like their base has been building. do we know how many votes were nationally cast for them in previous federal elections spanning the past 30 years? id really like to have some faith that boomers dying off and kids holding their convictions could push us left as long as singh keeps trying to reach out to them during his tenure and the party itself doesn't implode in the next decade or two. I think it's because the NDP is to the right of what it's base wants. Every Canadian politician with the exception of the BQ guys comes across as super stilted because they've been coached and rehearsed to take the most inoffensive political positions that would protect them from coming off as "too extreme" for the polite Canadian electorate. If Singh started agitating like a left wing firebrand demanding some of the more "radical" solutions we require to fix the ills of this country I think he'd feel like that would hurt his chances of winning more votes for his party so he has to pretend. The same goes for the Liberals except their stilted approach is because they're concealing right wing politics under a deceptive and performative veneer of socially progressive platitudes.
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 20:16
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:I think it's because the NDP is to the right of what it's base wants. Every Canadian politician with the exception of the BQ guys comes across as super stilted because they've been coached and rehearsed to take the most inoffensive political positions that would protect them from coming off as "too extreme" for the polite Canadian electorate. There are left wing fire brands within the party like Niki Ashton, Matthew Green and to some extent Charlie Angus but I doubt party brass will ever let them anywhere near leadership.
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 20:28
|
|
|
infernal machines posted:You can find the current totals here: https://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e singh this election: 2,887,108 singh 2019: 2,903,722 mulcair 2015: 3,469,368 layton 2011: 4,508,474 layton 2008: 2,515,288 layton 2006: 2,589,597 layton 2004: 2,127,403 mcdonough 2000: 1,093,868 mcdonough 1997: 1,434,509 mclaughlin 1993: 939,575 broadbent 1988: 2,685,263 i was getting excited to post about how it seems like the NDP really had made huge gains since the 90s, until i decided to go back just one more election to the 80s and see what it was like back then.......... i guess the best credit we can give the ndp is that they've managed to skid out of the slide and work their way back up to where they were again? id say its frustrating that nothing has really changed for them in 33 years, but thems politics, bay bee
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 20:30
|
|
|
Paper Lion posted:singh this election: 2,887,108 I'd also compare this to total voters, like is 2.9 mil a larger percentage now than 2.7 was in 1988?
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 20:33
|
|
|
yeah i was about to make an edit to say that broadbent was consistently around 2m-2.5m votes, but that was in an era where libs and tories were hitting 4.5m votes each. this election is actually worse for the ndp, the libs and cons have about 5.3m and 5.5m votes respectively
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 20:35
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:They don't have any of these expectations because all the career strategists and capable people already work for the Liberals and can expect lucrative contracts and job offers when elections are concluded... A lot of careers were made on election night. I think there are some good points of analysis here. Keeping competent staff is always a major concern when it does not pay enough and there are lucrative opportunities elsewhere. One of the structural advantages of being in government is that you can keep all you campaign staff working for you and when it is election time you can have them go back out and run campaigns. Or they are in lobbying and do roughly that same job when lobbying. I think it is not that there are no ambitious people and there are only losers left. I think it is more so that there is not enough money to employ and retain the staff, not that they do not exists. The enviromental hubbub that the liberals created is a good example. I think it reflects a bit in not having a bunch of staff to cover big angles or to do some casebuilding for you. A lot of the functions of case building, where the liberals created a bunch of noise on the enviromental file are set up by MPs and their offices. Having 300ish people working on politics for a party in parliament versus 50ish for the NDP. Having places to park your campaign staff so they do not go into other jobs and industries is also important. I think the NDP really suffers in federal elections from a lack of trained staff and many people in the thread complained their local campaigns were shitshows.
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 20:51
|
|
|
folytopo posted:I think the NDP really suffers in federal elections from a lack of trained staff and many people in the thread complained their local campaigns were shitshows. Yes it's really loving bad. A lot of NDP candidacies are basically fly by night amateur hour operations. It's obvious they concentrate the good people in a few targeted key ridings and it's an example of their lack of resources or ability to sustain their party infrastructure. If the Liberals are a standing army of professional soldiers, the NDP are a medieval levy army or a conscript force that trains with their rifles once every 4 years and spends the rest of their lives toiling in menial labor. This isn't necessarily the NDP's fault. It's more of an indictment of political culture in Canada as a whole. When institutions like the Catholic or Anglican Church held sway in countries like this they were reliably able to churn out political machines to assist with election campaigns for their chosen candidates via the interlinked network of community support that is associated with them. The death of private sector labor unions directly coincides with the severely weakened political clout of the NDP and the overall right wing shift of the Liberal party evidenced by the reforms under the Chretien government. The left basically has nothing in the way of money, resources or grassroots organizations that could maintain a constant political presence in the country. So the way I see it, the only way the left becomes ascendant is if the middle and upper classes begin to lose faith in the system and start thinking capitalism is no longer a fair and reasonable route to achieve their goals. The CPC and Liberals will immediately pivot to bailing them out in one way or another which again squeezes the left. Capital has always been in charge, even in the 1960s when they were more... "benevolent". It's piss easy to get coached into lying about all kinds of stuff to pull an unsecured loan for a downpayment, then get up to a million bucks in mortgage money to buy a home. People are doing it right now and betting that rising equities will keep them financially solvent and in the black. They think it'll never end, that Canada has nothing going for it but the housing market so interest rates will never rise and this will go on in perpetuity. As long as that is true nobody is going to try and rock the boat because for the majority of working people in professional white collar jobs there is literally no downside to taking enormous risks with debt that our boomer forefathers would have looked upon with utter horror. If some outside market force triggers a shockwave that somehow crashes the housing market, all bets are off. Then we can start to expect major political shakeups. So the next big political inflection point for this country will come in one of two ways.... 1. Climate change causes some kind of disaster that really kills a lot of people in a very short time or renders vast tracts of land in western countries unviable for human settlement... 2. An economic crisis that makes 2008 look like a soap bubble. Kraftwerk fucked around with this message at 21:12 on Sep 22, 2021 |
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 20:59
|
|
|
the problem with both those scenarios is that theyre wide open for a ultra right populist surge to swoop in and capitalize instead. particularly the climate change issue. "why should we have to change anything when we can just punish the brown people trying to claim refugee status because their countries are on fire???" will be a predominant talking point. its already gaining traction from canadians observing the us border. this is a racist as gently caress country and make no mistake, when the self fulfilling prophecy of malthusian economics and politics starts coming true, it will only get worse
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 21:18
|
|
|
Lots of liberal ridings are also staffed by utter morons, it's not an exclusive NDP problem. It's just more of a problem for the NDP.
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 21:29
|
|
|
Paper Lion posted:the problem with both those scenarios is that theyre wide open for a ultra right populist surge to swoop in and capitalize instead. particularly the climate change issue. "why should we have to change anything when we can just punish the brown people trying to claim refugee status because their countries are on fire???" will be a predominant talking point. its already gaining traction from canadians observing the us border. this is a racist as gently caress country and make no mistake, when the self fulfilling prophecy of malthusian economics and politics starts coming true, it will only get worse I think that level of chaos makes it impossible to predict WHAT exactly would happen. Nobody knows... Goon political instincts have generally been wrong about the future 8/9 times out of 10. Something weirder than fiction always ends up happening instead. Having said that, looking at how debt markets work in Canada today - is there any reason NOT to play the mortgage and HELOC shell game? Like say you have less than 50k in assets and you take out an unsecured loan to put a down payment on a 1 million dollar mortgage. With the rising housing prices what is your personal risk if something bad happens? Like what's stopping you from taking out a 50k HELOC, putting it in a shoebox and then declaring bankruptcy and returning right back to where you started. You basically have no downside but your upside is that you could get a house that was worth much more than what you originally paid for it and can continue to borrow against its equity to buy more houses which you then rent out to pay for themselves while farming up the extra cash. Where is this loss here? Like the money, the debt, all of it appears to be completely 100% fake.
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 21:33
|
|
|
I'm pretty sure that's a textbook case of moral hazard
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 21:44
|
|
|
infernal machines posted:I'm pretty sure that's a textbook case of moral hazard Yes it is, and it applies to every level of this house of cards we call a housing market. The only losers here are people who draw a salary to sustain their cost of living. Literally everyone else profits. If the homeowners were smart they can walkaway with a shoebox of money and a fresh start (unless they have nowhere else to stay). The banks will get bailed out and double dip by selling foreclosed houses. The only losers here are renters and wage workers. So assuming you're only out for yourself, what incentive is there not to join the housing market by spending someone else's money and then declaring bankruptcy IF that market fails... It's looking quickly like its an infinite ponzi scheme and it's a lot easier to play the game than it is to fight it.
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 21:53
|
|
|
Kevin Vuong is sticking it through per his statement - I'm genuinely surprised. Claims he'll elaborate on the allegations at an appropriate forum. What gets me is this - in the hypothetical situation where the allegations are false or misrepresentative (and I doubt they are); why not just outright detail your version of it? It's embarrassing but surely better than keeping quiet. You're probably still pooched politically but it'll help settle down some public furor I'd think.
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 22:10
|
|
|
Jordan7hm posted:Lots of liberal ridings are also staffed by utter morons, it's not an exclusive NDP problem. It's just more of a problem for the NDP. Yeah, lots of staff suck. Have hundreds of them really increases the odds of good ones. I do not know how the liberals manage their MPs and their ministerial staff, but maybe there are chances for competent people to work together on smaller projects.
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 22:15
|
|
|
Capri Sunrise posted:Kevin Vuong is sticking it through per his statement - I'm genuinely surprised. Claims he'll elaborate on the allegations at an appropriate forum. Because every public statement complicates his legal options. Politically he effectively wasn't that badly punished, he still won election even in the face of serious allegations. Yes he's out of the party and that's no small thing, but if the allegations prove false he will be able to use incumbency to either have a good shot of keeping his seat or catch some comfy political advisor/author gig afterwards. If the allegations are true, he's screwed regardless. Not showing his hand right now is his best bet to salvage anything from this.
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 22:18
|
|
|
Kenney's caucus put off the confidence vote at the meeting today. Dang. Oh well, Rick Bell yelling on national news networks is always funny and he's yelling up a storm right now.
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 22:22
|
|
|
my favorite thing today is the 20 year old PPC candidate who compared vaccine passports to the Holocaust, and then justified it by saying his grandparents lived through the holocaust, and then it turns out by that he meant they were running a dress shop in Southern Ontario during the war.
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 22:58
|
|
|
Since this is the second election in a row where the CPC has got more votes than the Liberals yet ended up with significantly fewer seats, why aren't they screaming at the top of their lungs for electoral reform? It plays into the conservative persecution complex, and gives them plenty of mud to sling at Trudeau since it was his government that immediately dropped that campaign promise once elected in 2015. This seems like it should be a slam dunk issue for them to take up, am I missing something?
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 23:23
|
|
|
Sashimi posted:Since this is the second election in a row where the CPC has got more votes than the Liberals yet ended up with significantly fewer seats, why aren't they screaming at the top of their lungs for electoral reform? It plays into the conservative persecution complex, and gives them plenty of mud to sling at Trudeau since it was his government that immediately dropped that campaign promise once elected in 2015. This seems like it should be a slam dunk issue for them to take up, am I missing something? Because, if they get 33% of the vote in a proportional system they would have very little power. They would rather lead government with ~1/3 of the vote about half the time than never lead government.
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 23:25
|
|
|
Sashimi posted:Since this is the second election in a row where the CPC has got more votes than the Liberals yet ended up with significantly fewer seats, why aren't they screaming at the top of their lungs for electoral reform? It plays into the conservative persecution complex, and gives them plenty of mud to sling at Trudeau since it was his government that immediately dropped that campaign promise once elected in 2015. This seems like it should be a slam dunk issue for them to take up, am I missing something? Electoral reform doesn't play predictably into our current conception of party politics. For example, a ranked choice voting system like STV changes the dynamic of campaigning entirely 1) The simple fact that you're not the most popular candidate in a riding doesn't necessarily mean that you have to oppose the most popular candidate. You can appeal to the commonalities of a candidate while offering something different/above that candidate, because being the number 2 choice has value, unlike in FPTP 2) More conservative representatives in Eastern Canada, and more Lib/NDP reps in Western Canada because more than one candidate per riding can be elected. 3) A party's base is incentivized to vote for the most appealing option, rather than against the least appealing option. I think any discussion on which party benefits/hurts with electoral reform fundamentally misses the entire point of electoral reform. Proper electoral reform would be unpredictable and transformative and cannot simply be thought of as shifting the balance of power from one party to another.
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 23:40
|
|
|
Orthanc6 posted:Because every public statement complicates his legal options. What legal options though? The charge was dropped - all he really faces now is a public image crisis.
|
|
#
?
Sep 22, 2021 23:48
|
|
|
every statement also hurts his public image. the more times you feel the need to point to your "i didnt do sex crimes" shirt, the more people will ask why youre wearing it
|
|
#
?
Sep 23, 2021 00:01
|
|
|
Paper Lion posted:every statement also hurts his public image. the more times you feel the need to point to your "i didnt do sex crimes" shirt, the more people will ask why youre wearing it I was not following this closely, I didn't know the charge was dropped. That being the case, it is still better for him to be brief in his response. There's no words he can use to convince anyone who believes he did it, since this is now outside of court the more he presses his own defense the more guilty he will appear. Those who believe him to be innocent will also only become more suspicious if he keeps trying to defend. So honestly his best statement now would be "There was a serious allegation against me but that charge has been dropped. I did nothing wrong" and leave it. If we want to hold him accountable, it has to be through legal means, which means someone bringing up charges again. He just got re-elected, so unfortunately not much can be done to pressure him politically for it right now.
|
|
#
?
Sep 23, 2021 00:19
|
|
|
Paper Lion posted:singh this election: 2,887,108 I think to some degree it is media consolidation and a swing rightward that has had an impact on NDP support. Maybe that's not true, but it certainly feels that way. I still remember NDP governments in Saskatchewan, Ontario, and BC growing up and don't really know what happened for support to die off as it has.
|
|
#
?
Sep 23, 2021 00:35
|
|
|
Rae Days. To clarify, there is an entire generation of parents that will never get over the fact they had to have their kids at home for a bit of time. And that is unforgivable. Forever. Drunk Canuck fucked around with this message at 00:59 on Sep 23, 2021 |
|
#
?
Sep 23, 2021 00:51
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/elisevonscheel/status/1440823697137225728 Kenney will be ousted and the new boss will Not Affect The Conservative Brand
|
|
#
?
Sep 23, 2021 00:54
|
|
|
Drunk Canuck posted:Rae Days. Do you think the COVID response will affect the PCPO and other Conservative provincial governments in the same ways?
|
|
#
?
Sep 23, 2021 01:01
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 02:47 |
|
|
We're going to see a long time Liberal majority reign in Ontario yeah.
|
|
#
?
Sep 23, 2021 01:12
|
|