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In raw numbers we've already surpassed the low-end estimate for civil war dead.
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Sep 23, 2021 11:47
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Captain Log posted:What is the actual scientifically agreed upon death rate of covid? I keep hearing numbers that sound encouraging, but then read that we've surpassed the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu in a comparable time frame. I'm pretty sure we are going to beat out the God damned Civil War when all is said and done, which took four years. It's difficult to give an answer to that question because the data's fuzzy but it kills about 1% of the people who contract it and hospitalizes about 12%. About 1 in 8 suffer longer effects that people are calling "Long Covid". It's nasty.
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Sep 23, 2021 12:41
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Captain Log posted:What is the actual scientifically agreed upon death rate of covid? I keep hearing numbers that sound encouraging, but then read that we've surpassed the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu in a comparable time frame. I'm pretty sure we are going to beat out the God damned Civil War when all is said and done, which took four years. I tried looking this up last week and it was harder to pin down a good estimate of infection fatality rate than I expected. My impression is that it's difficult to come up with one average IFR figure because there are so many factors that impact it, and it all rests on making a good estimate of how many infections are going untested/uncounted. Since it's extremely unevenly distributed by age (IFR increases exponentially as age increases) you've got to do a lot to control for age groups in a population, and since morbidity is highly dependent on the quality of care someone receives, fatality rates vary based on quality of the health system in a given region (and whether or not it ever gets overwhelmed and has to ration care). Conceptually, we've already disproven the initial optimistic/low-end IFR estimates of ~0.25% that I remember seeing last year. 0.2% of the population of the United States is already dead before we even managed to infect a majority of the country. I did find one study that analyzed fatalities and estimated infection rates in Indiana and Ohio from March 2020-March 2021, and they came up with an overall IFR of 0.84% (with a 95% interval of 0.7 to 1.0%). That was before the Delta variant hit those regions, of course, so if there's any increase in mortality from Delta, the actual IFR is even higher but it'll be a while before we have good studies that estimate it. Blotto_Otter fucked around with this message at 15:26 on Sep 23, 2021 |
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Sep 23, 2021 15:24
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:In raw numbers we've already surpassed the low-end estimate for civil war dead. i swore the 1918 pandemic killed like a million or so americans alone in moderate estimates? i know that killed the young and healthy way way more then covid did.
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Sep 23, 2021 17:19
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i swore the 1918 pandemic killed like a million or so americans alone in moderate estimates? i know that killed the young and healthy way way more then covid did. About the same with three times less population.
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Sep 23, 2021 18:09
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Also a dim understanding of epidemiology and vaccine production.
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Sep 23, 2021 18:35
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The figure that sticks with me is the US Excess Death Index, or whatever it's called. I've found hard right relatives have a hard time explaining that one away.
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Sep 23, 2021 18:44
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quote:If everyone in the world was as smart as Donald Jr, we would already be colonizing the galaxy. Mary Trump calls Donald Trump Jr. her 'stupidest' relative
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Sep 23, 2021 18:49
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Blotto_Otter posted:I tried looking this up last week and it was harder to pin down a good estimate of infection fatality rate than I expected. My impression is that it's difficult to come up with one average IFR figure because there are so many factors that impact it, and it all rests on making a good estimate of how many infections are going untested/uncounted. Since it's extremely unevenly distributed by age (IFR increases exponentially as age increases) you've got to do a lot to control for age groups in a population, and since morbidity is highly dependent on the quality of care someone receives, fatality rates vary based on quality of the health system in a given region (and whether or not it ever gets overwhelmed and has to ration care). To build on this, to get a better understanding of how a number like this is generated it helps to think about the variables that are going into it. In a toy example like pulling colored marbles out of a bag or rolling a die it’s relatively easy to gloss over confounding factors (e.g. what order the marbles were put in the bag, how hard you chuck the die, etc.), but when you’re doing this for something like a disease it’s pretty obvious that it’s much more complicated to model. There’s age, access to medical care, past healthcare and other issues, nutrition, etc. to keep in mind, plus how all those interact with each other. Surprise, complex biological systems are hard to model. But this is for just one person assuming you know the values of all the variables and how they work : generalizing this to whole populations means you have to weight various factors to create a number that has some meaningful relationship to what we feel is an “average” or representative likelihood. This involves a certain amount of work to simplify. Toy example I’m making up : imagine two diseases X and Y. Disease X just straight up kills exactly 8% of people always basta because it’s a magic hell plague or something. Disease Y meanwhile has no real effect on most people but will also just murder you 100% of the time if you’re part of some smaller group that so happens to be exactly 8% of the population in aggregate. From a very technical perspective, X and Y have the same fatality rate on the level of the entire group we’re talking about, but if I just told you that without explaining you’d think I’m a complete rear end in a top hat. This isn’t all doom and gloom of course. Scientists aren’t lazy jerks and are actually pretty smart cookies and we’ve gotten really good at weighing different factors to get a pretty good idea of how to represent things like this. And if you check the actual papers written by them that derive these numbers, they’re quite willing to very explicitly show all their work and walk you through the calculations : the idea of a secretive ivory tower reclusive scientist is thoroughly, astoundingly bullshit because the kind of people who spend 25+ years working 60+ hour weeks in order to become experts on slime molds or whatever are really, really into them and would love to talk you to death all about them. So in addition to COVID being new and different, it’s also just a complicated thing being very much simplified into a single number, so of course there’s going to be a lot of variability. PS science is cool.
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Sep 23, 2021 18:52
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kik2dagroin posted:This is going to end violently because the left has gone too far and gotten away with too much. They will not back down now because they cannot conceive of losing. That’s how wars begin. also i have several dozen threads to show you if you think "the left" "can't conceive of losing"
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Sep 23, 2021 18:53
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InsertPotPun posted:like...what the gently caress? "you'll be tired of winning" was literally their god's catchphrase like...gently caress. I think the idea is that they were losing to the globalists and demons for a while. Trump helped them remember what it was like to win, but they are still very #humble about conflict...or they would be if the dems didn't make them have to be violently angry. The libs are in a zealous fervor to...distribute wealth and reduce the effects of poverty and climate change and protect voting rights...and are blinded by their underinformed self righteousness.
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Sep 23, 2021 19:14
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Glory to Italia!
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Fatality rate is a dart board because their are a million variables to integrate but most smart people are landing on the 1ish percent number all things considered.
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Sep 23, 2021 19:29
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Now after everything I kinda "Get" Trump worship. He's a rich and powerful dude who says things people agree with and that makes those same people feel a fraction of that wealth and power, but how does anyone get a positive impression of Don Jr? He's a hanger-on who has accomplished nothing and failed even in those rare places his dad has succeeded all while dressing like a Patrick Bateman cosplay. It boggles the mind 
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Sep 23, 2021 19:59
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DarklyDreaming posted:Now after everything I kinda "Get" Trump worship. He's a rich and powerful dude who says things people agree with and that makes those same people feel a fraction of that wealth and power, but how does anyone get a positive impression of Don Jr? He's a hanger-on who has accomplished nothing and failed even in those rare places his dad has succeeded all while dressing like a Patrick Bateman cosplay. It boggles the mind That's just the propaganda of the Instagram gods crushing his algorithm. He has at least one loyal fan and this short video will demonstrate the appeal. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3N-YIfVpFI cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 20:18 on Sep 23, 2021 |
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Sep 23, 2021 20:11
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DarklyDreaming posted:Now after everything I kinda "Get" Trump worship. He's a rich and powerful dude who says things people agree with and that makes those same people feel a fraction of that wealth and power, but how does anyone get a positive impression of Don Jr? He's a hanger-on who has accomplished nothing and failed even in those rare places his dad has succeeded all while dressing like a Patrick Bateman cosplay. It boggles the mind Does anyone actually like Jr.? I'm under the impression that his job at this point is just to act as a proxy for his dad at events that can't afford Donny Sr. And even then he probably is the post popular Trump kid. Chuds hate Ivanka for (((reasons))), both Barron and Tiffany stay out of the spotlight, and I had to think for a solid minute before I could remember Eric Trump.
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Sep 23, 2021 20:24
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Neo_Crimson posted:Does anyone actually like Jr.? I'm under the impression that his job at this point is just to act as a proxy for his dad at events that can't afford Donny Sr. As far as I can tell, they like him because he posted on twitter almost as much as Trump did, and he reposts a bunch of conservative talking-point meme images. Much like Turning Point USA, this allows them to make 'See AOC get annihilated by this twitter comment' threads. (Every single amount of pushback, no matter how feeble is an annihilation)
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Sep 23, 2021 21:04
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Junior's popularity is, at best, splash from Trump himself, and people act as hangers on for Don jr. for the same reason he's a hanger on for Trump. Which, somehow, makes those people even more pathetic than he is. Edit: essentially, people are sycophants for Don Jr because he's a sycophant for Trump. They've bought into the narcissistic framing Trump has, where his family are just extensions of himself. kartikeya fucked around with this message at 22:47 on Sep 23, 2021 |
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Sep 23, 2021 22:44
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I am continually amazed at Don Jr being as dumb as he is, but usually that's down to him desperately trying to emulate his Dad in every way to get his approval. I mean most kids of narcissistic personality disorder sufferers tend to become inured against reality in general in some respects, just to survive, but still.
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Sep 23, 2021 23:19
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Pratt tho... lmao https://twitter.com/Wario64/status/1441167930234793992 mamma mia
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Sep 23, 2021 23:56
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useless without knowing who'll play Luigi.
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Sep 24, 2021 03:33
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Zeroisanumber posted:useless without knowing who'll play Luigi. Motherfucking Charlie Day.
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Sep 24, 2021 03:36
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Neo_Crimson posted:Motherfucking Charlie Day. 
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Sep 24, 2021 03:41
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Bowser is Jack Black
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Sep 24, 2021 04:45
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Neo_Crimson posted:Does anyone actually like Jr.? I'm under the impression that his job at this point is just to act as a proxy for his dad at events that can't afford Donny Sr. Eric Trump is like the Don Jr. to Don Jr.'s Donald Trump. Just even more pathetic.
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Sep 24, 2021 05:20
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Has anyone realized that Chris Pratt is 6’2” and Charlie day is 5’7”????
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Sep 24, 2021 08:47
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Captain Monkey posted:Has anyone realized that Chris Pratt is 6’2” and Charlie day is 5’7”???? Can you tell from their voices?
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Sep 24, 2021 10:47
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I don't want to go to Freep, but I can't wait to read their reactions to the Cyberninja Arizona audit showing Trump lost Arizona by an even larger amount than originally thought. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...d=mmx&PC=EMMX01
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Sep 24, 2021 11:47
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Fake news.
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Sep 24, 2021 11:49
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Pretty much, even though they'll be presenting the results in person later today it seems like.
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Sep 24, 2021 12:04
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I’m seeing a lot of “that’s the hand count but wait until you see the forensic audit which shows how many of those votes were fraudulent!”
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Sep 24, 2021 12:42
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The goal posts can be forever moved.
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Sep 24, 2021 13:07
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Edit: nm
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Sep 24, 2021 13:24
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birds posted:I’m seeing a lot of “that’s the hand count but wait until you see the forensic audit which shows how many of those votes were fraudulent!” Some of that is in the draft too. But even it admits that not all the "suspicious" votes are necessarily fraudulent, and also cannot be assumed to favor one candidate over the other.
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Sep 24, 2021 13:28
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My civil war era gut says that TRURMP WON, therefore
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Sep 24, 2021 13:30
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It's mostly thisquote:OAN will have the best coverage. But Christina Bobb said she knew someone who opened the boxes and Biden and Kamala were in the boxes making ballots and she saw one of the ballots and the ballot looked at her quote:A main stream media source. I wouldn’t put any stock in this. Wait a minute, somebody has lied to us quote:After hearing Argus I wonder if the audit team was bought off. We were hearing the count was way off and now it’s not. No illegal paper. We were told the audit found all this fraud but there's nothing to show for it... The Cyber Ninjas must be in on it too! VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 13:37 on Sep 24, 2021 |
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Sep 24, 2021 13:31
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I'm the numerous sources
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Sep 24, 2021 13:40
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cant cook creole bream posted:Can you tell from their voices? can you not? (I’ve only now realized it isn’t live action)
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Sep 24, 2021 13:49
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Captain Monkey posted:can you not? It's done by the same studio as the loving minions movies. It's either going to be surprisingly good or a hilarious train wreck.
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Sep 24, 2021 14:13
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I thought the lego movies were fun and they were both in them.
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Sep 24, 2021 14:22
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"who?" Is a line from a movie with Chris Pratt, Jesus I thought we were all nerds here? The audit thing is already being spun as "the deep state got them" or "we still don't have the REAL audit". Goalposts with wheels, forever.
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Sep 24, 2021 14:42
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