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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Here in BC we're over 80% of eligible vaxed, but it's kids in school pushing our cases up. It's awful. Really hope the Pfizer data submitted this upcoming week is solid and the 5-11 group can get their immunizations quickly.
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Sep 27, 2021 00:43
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| # ? May 28, 2024 01:42 |
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Gio posted:Let’s take MI for another. The primary issue is not the proportion of breakthrough deaths and hospitalizations but the overall rate. What is the breakthrough death / hospitalization rate for vaccinated people?
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Sep 27, 2021 00:44
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StrangeThing posted:The primary issue is not the proportion of breakthrough deaths and hospitalizations but the overall rate. I mean, MI and Illinois are not even 60% fully vaccinated.
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Sep 27, 2021 00:48
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StrangeThing posted:The primary issue is not the proportion of breakthrough deaths and hospitalizations but the overall rate. The US doesn't have case numbers that mean anything other than a general up or down and generally we don't track breakthrough cases very meaningfully
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Sep 27, 2021 00:48
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Gio posted:I mean, MI and Illinois are not even 60% fully vaccinated. Okay, but that doesn't change my question: what is the rate of breakthrough infections / deaths as a function of all infections / hospitalizations / deaths? It's one thing to say 25% of cases are breakthrough infections, it's another to say that vaccinated people have a 0.3% chance of dying or whatever. Edit: Here you go: quote:Between Aug. 9 and Sept. 8, 25% of the newly confirmed COVID-19 cases were people who were fully vaccinated, as were 25% of those hospitalized with COVID and 19% of the COVID-19 deaths, when compared with all COVID cases. https://www.mlive.com/news/2021/09/michigans-covid-breakthrough-case-numbers-dont-tell-the-whole-story-7-things-to-know.html
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Sep 27, 2021 00:49
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StrangeThing posted:Okay, but that doesn't change my question: what is the rate of breakthrough infections / deaths as a function of all infections / hospitalizations / deaths? This lumps in data pre-Delta and before waning efficacy of vaccines.
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Sep 27, 2021 00:57
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Gio posted:This lumps in data pre-Delta and before waning efficacy of vaccines. Sure, to which I would say, look at the Oregon data.
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Sep 27, 2021 01:00
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Gio posted:This lumps in data pre-Delta and before waning of vaccine efficacy. I thought the big point that came up in the recent booster debate was while there may be an argument for boosters on a transmission standpoint, in terms of if we're talking specifically about severe illness and death, unless you were over 60 or immunocompromised that protection wasn't really waning, delta or not. Mr Luxury Yacht fucked around with this message at 01:04 on Sep 27, 2021 |
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Sep 27, 2021 01:02
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Ontario has pretty good data on this (every case is tracked by vaccination status). We're more recently vaccinated, so waning effectiveness has had less of an effect, but the data has shown a roughly 6x reduction in cases and a 33x reduction in ICU admissions when fully vaccinated. Breakthrough cases definitely exist but saying that vaccines have "minimal" protection from infection is false. enki42 fucked around with this message at 01:12 on Sep 27, 2021 |
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Sep 27, 2021 01:05
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:I thought the big point that came up in the recent booster debate was while there may be an argument for boosters on a transmission standpoint, in terms of if we're talking specifically about severe illness and death, unless you were over 60 or immunocompromised that protection wasn't really waning, delta or not. There’s tens of millions of people 60 and older in the US. I’m not sure I understand your point?
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Sep 27, 2021 01:07
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Gio posted:There’s tens of millions of people 60 and older in the US. I’m not sure I understand your point? The point is that we should be careful when talking about waning immunity and implying that all vaccines, everywhere, are useless.
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Sep 27, 2021 01:09
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quote:To date, 0.5% of fully vaccinated Michiganders have had a breakthrough case, 0.2% have been hospitalized and 0.007% have died (when compared to those who have been vaccinated). This is a misleading statistic. This calculation includes a time variable. It’s .0007% so far, it cannot possibly go down. This does not mean that every vaccinated person has has a .0007% chance of dying to Covid. The 19% of deaths from Aug to Sept is much more informative. Roughly 50% of people were vaccinated. If 100 people died 19 were vaxxed and 81 unvaxxed. That works out to vaxxed people have a 76% less chance of death compared to unvaxed. That’s significant, but not infallible like the previous statistic suggests.
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Sep 27, 2021 01:11
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nexous posted:This is a misleading statistic. This calculation includes a time variable. It’s .0007% so far, it cannot possibly go down. This does not mean that every vaccinated person has has a .0007% chance of dying to Covid. Sure, that's fair.
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Sep 27, 2021 01:12
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GonadTheBallbarian posted:Here in BC we're over 80% of eligible vaxed, but it's kids in school pushing our cases up. It's awful. Are Dix and Henry still obfuscating the number of cases by refusing to report ones that would constitute community spread? They were asked last week why they're not releasing contact tracing for school outbreaks (and Alberta was asked the same thing on Thursday.) I'm way past giving Henry the benefit of the doubt as she does her nervous giggle and then dodges questions regarding school spread.
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Sep 27, 2021 01:12
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Gio posted:I have receipts. Ok, then you will note that 60% of the population and 25% of covid deaths being fully vaccinated implies that vaccinated people are ~5x less likely to die of covid. Also that that number is a large underestimate because the 40% unvaccinated are mostly young people who were already highly unlikely (not impossible) to die of covid.
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Sep 27, 2021 01:13
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Again, vaccines own and everyone should get vaccinated. They are not useless and will be the primary way we can “learn to live with Covid.”
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Sep 27, 2021 01:14
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StrangeThing posted:The point is that we should be careful when talking about waning immunity and implying that all vaccines, everywhere, are useless. Exactly. People have to look at more than the statistics when making their own personal risk assessments. For public policy however this is not acceptable, as evidenced by what happened in the US. The road map you posted for Oct. 26th looks very responsible and reasonable to me, as someone living in hellworld.
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Sep 27, 2021 01:14
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Gio posted:There’s tens of millions of people 60 and older in the US. I’m not sure I understand your point? That waning immunity isn't the same thing in every age group and for a lot of people the vaccines still have plenty of effect. That doesn't mean give up all NPIs though. But in terms of how much personal doom your average goon should feel while taking precautions, it does matter. Mr Luxury Yacht fucked around with this message at 01:22 on Sep 27, 2021 |
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Sep 27, 2021 01:16
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can horses get bad coronaviruses. asking for a friend.
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Sep 27, 2021 01:16
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Fritz the Horse posted:can horses get bad coronaviruses. asking for a friend. Not if you deworm them
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Sep 27, 2021 01:17
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Professor Beetus posted:Exactly. People have to look at more than the statistics when making their own personal risk assessments. For public policy however this is not acceptable, as evidenced by what happened in the US. The road map you posted for Oct. 26th looks very responsible and reasonable to me, as someone living in hellworld. It is pretty reasonable. Again, I'm annoyed that I can't visit vaccinated friends in a park yet but it's only a few more weeks away I guess. Come Nov 5. I'll be able to visit friends and go to the gym again. That's all I want really.
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Sep 27, 2021 01:23
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StrangeThing posted:The point is that we should be careful when talking about waning immunity and implying that all vaccines, everywhere, are useless. I never said anything of the sort. I have stated… - Vaccines offer minimal protection against symptomatic (Delta) infection (after months of waning efficacy, could be 42% efficacy or lower against symptomatic infection). That’s true. Israeli data has been corroborated by studies out of CA, the UK, Qatar, and I believe others as well. Anecdotally, I’ve mentioned that there have been 13 breakthrough infections in my family, one of whom was hospitalized with Covid pneumonia (and was otherwise healthy aside from being over ~70). If you want to quibble over the use of the term “minimal,” whatever. No matter which way you slice it the breakthrough rate of Delta is Not Good. - Deaths and hospitalizations among the fully vaccinated are far more common than those in power are leading on. This is also true. Maybe the number of deaths is palatable and acceptable for you, I dunno, but it isn’t for me.
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Sep 27, 2021 01:24
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Camping trip report: I haven't really been following the thread there were like 250+ posts I didn't read through tbh. If I didn't reply to someone I didn't ignore ya, just been doing other things. I went camping with five family members in the Black Hills of South Dakota. It's home of the Sturgis bike rally and is otherwise a popular tourist destination. Not a mask in sight, anywhere. We at out twice at places with (actual) outdoor dining. Interesting anecdote I heard: the Black Hills has had a massive development boom the last year or so, tons of people moving there both to work from home and also because SD's governor Noem has been one of the loudest "gently caress masks and mandates, yeah freedom!" governor alongside DeSantis in Florida. So there are a lot of chuds moving there. I hope that they've never experienced a real winter and are miserable in the coming months. Apparently the same is true of Florida, quite a few people moving to states that are hostile to pandemic precautions.
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Sep 27, 2021 01:25
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nexous posted:This is a misleading statistic. This calculation includes a time variable. It’s .0007% so far, it cannot possibly go down. This does not mean that every vaccinated person has has a .0007% chance of dying to Covid. It's the same bad statistic COVID denialists were using last year. 99.99% survival rate!!!!
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Sep 27, 2021 01:27
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Fritz the Horse posted:Camping trip report: Where do these chuds get the means to just move at the whims of political culture wars? Are homes just not getting snapped up in places like Florida?
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Sep 27, 2021 01:29
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Arc Hammer posted:Are Dix and Henry still obfuscating the number of cases by refusing to report ones that would constitute community spread? They were asked last week why they're not releasing contact tracing for school outbreaks (and Alberta was asked the same thing on Thursday.) A bit, though it could also be attributed to work overload. They're just not doing it until it's way too late. They're also currently getting raked over the coals for undercounting hospitalizations/ICU patients.
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Sep 27, 2021 01:32
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Gio posted:I never said anything of the sort. I have stated… I don't really put stock in anecdotes. The data tell me breakthroughs are rare and hospitalized breakthroughs even rarer. If you're saying there's some sort of breakthrough case conspiracy, then sure, but don't expect me to believe you. quote:Maybe the number of deaths is palatable and acceptable for you, I dunno, but it isn’t for me. No amount of death is acceptable to me but I'm perfectly happy to operate in society as close to normal as possible with reasonable health measures if the hospitalization and death rate is on par or lower than a typical flu season.
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Sep 27, 2021 01:33
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virtualboyCOLOR posted:Where do these chuds get the means to just move at the whims of political culture wars? Are homes just not getting snapped up in places like Florida? Real estate in South Dakota is relatively cheap. Idk where the money is coming from to move to Florida. The market is red hot right now so maybe they're selling homes in expensive markets and moving to low-tax low-covid-prevention areas? The anecdotes about SD development boom I got from relatives who have lived in the Black Hills their whole life and are very familiar with development in the northern Hills (Spearfish, Sturgis, Deadwood, Rapid City). Part of the dynamic is that's a small population in the area, not much more than 120k. So it only takes a fairly small amount of new development to alter the area. They said specifically they get a ton of people from Texas, California, and Colorado. lmao to people moving here from the first two, enjoy the winters! They just mentioned offhand the same thing was happening in Florida so that's a much weaker anecdote. edit: to clarify, the SD development info is coming from a relative who sells and installs custom windows and related stuff and has for decades. So he interacts with a ton of home buyers. Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 01:39 on Sep 27, 2021 |
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Sep 27, 2021 01:36
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StrangeThing posted:I don't really put stock in anecdotes. The data tell me breakthroughs are rare and hospitalized breakthroughs even rarer. If you're saying there's some sort of breakthrough case conspiracy, then sure, but don't expect me to believe you.
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Sep 27, 2021 01:39
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I wish I knew how people could afford to keep moving to where I live, because cost of living was already higher than the national average 20 years ago and it's only skyrocketed. 100 year old craftsman homes in our neighborhood are going from 400k, and we live literally two blocks away from the sleaziest strip of road in town. It's loving bonkers.
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Sep 27, 2021 01:40
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Gio posted:Breakthroughs represent anywhere from 25-30% of cases and a similar proportion of hospitalizations. How is that “rare?” You're taking data from one location and applying it everywhere. At a certain point 100% of cases will be breakthroughs. I don't really care about the number of breakthrough case, I care about how severe they are.
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Sep 27, 2021 01:44
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Welp, I’m done. I’ve said my bit and we’re going in circles. To Aussies, I am sorry but… https://youtu.be/vD94dVu8lqQ (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 27, 2021 01:46
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Sorry you can't seem to deal with the fact that other countries can vaccinate at a higher rate than the United States. I hope you deal with that in your own time.
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Sep 27, 2021 01:49
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StrangeThing posted:You're taking data from one location and applying it everywhere. Gio posted:Welp, I’m done. I’ve said my bit and we’re going in circles. To Aussies, I am sorry but… Thanks for the civil ending here. I clicked the yt link and was pleasantly surprised. Please enjoy this cat on me.  e: well kinda but I think it still wrapped up ok for the most part, I had to make the cat pun anyway
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Sep 27, 2021 01:53
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Gio posted:Breakthroughs represent anywhere from 25-30% of cases and a similar proportion of hospitalizations. How is that “rare?” The only useful way to discuss breakthrough cases is rate per 100k of the relevant population (i.e. unvaxxed / partially vaxxed / fully vaxxed). Today, the rates in Ontario were 11.99 / 100k for unvaccinated people, and 1.51 / 100k for fully vaccinated people, or said another way, fully vaccinated people were 7.92x less likely to be infected in the first place. That doesn't mean all problems are solved and we should abandon all restrictions, but acting like the vaccines have a minimal effect against infection isn't borne out by the data. I'm sure the situation is worse in the us, but "25% of cases are unvaccinated" isnt super useful on its own.
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Sep 27, 2021 01:56
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GonadTheBallbarian posted:A bit, though it could also be attributed to work overload. They're just not doing it until it's way too late. For fucks sake BC figures they only need to do the barest to look better than their neighbours and all will be well. Alberta is drowning, Saskatchewan is imploding, Manitoba has been poo poo for months, and Ontario, while oddly low compared to the other provinces, is probably going to catch up and put us right back in the poo poo by the end of October what with school cases and eased restrictions for sporting events. We're just running down the clock before Wave 4 catches up to Ontario and we're all hosed once again.
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Sep 27, 2021 01:56
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Arc Hammer posted:For fucks sake BC figures they only need to do the barest to look better than their neighbours and all will be well. Alberta is drowning, Saskatchewan is imploding, Manitoba has been poo poo for months, and Ontario, while oddly low compared to the other provinces, is probably going to catch up and put us right back in the poo poo by the end of October what with school cases and eased restrictions for sporting events. As far as I'm concerned they never even tried. They only bow to pressure. Bonnie and her absolutely ghoulish hug day bit is what sealed it for me
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Sep 27, 2021 02:12
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enki42 posted:The only useful way to discuss breakthrough cases is rate per 100k of the relevant population (i.e. unvaxxed / partially vaxxed / fully vaxxed). Is Canada seeing the mysteriously much higher efficacy that the UK is seeing against severe/death vs US/Israel (longer intervals, mix and match vaccines, later start, higher uptake, ????)
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Sep 27, 2021 02:27
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poll plane variant posted:Is Canada seeing the mysteriously much higher efficacy that the UK is seeing against severe/death vs US/Israel (longer intervals, mix and match vaccines, later start, higher uptake, ????) Later vaccination, so tough to compare apples to apples. But we've also never really been anywhere near as bad off as the states, so 
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Sep 27, 2021 02:29
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| # ? May 28, 2024 01:42 |
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StrangeThing posted:No amount of death is acceptable to me but I'm perfectly happy to operate in society as close to normal as possible with reasonable health measures if the hospitalization and death rate is on par or lower than a typical flu season. I don't think we're ever going to get to on par or lower than the flu, purely because COVID is deadlier than the flu (at least until it mutates down, if it ever does). I know most countries haven't peaked vaccination rates yet, but looking at the UK data they're currently recording double the number of flu deaths they would if you smoothed it out over the year (40-70ish a day, depending on the flu season). But of course flu deaths aren't spread across the year, they spike in winter, and so will COVID, so this coming northern hemisphere will be one to watch. I do think that several times the number of annual flu deaths will be something society will come to accept. It sucks but I don't see any other way around it.
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Sep 27, 2021 02:29
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