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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Phigs posted:Nobody is saying vaccines are worthless, they're saying they're grossly insufficient to stop infection and spread, especially after a few months without a booster. The prison example is perfect for showing the point that NPIs are necessary to control the spread of COVID and that vaccines alone are not the answer. It's the extreme end of the scale, we now know what happens when you hotbox a bunch of people with COVID, and it shows that vaccines in that scenario do very little to prevent infection. So presumably, and here we have to do something without heaps of peer reviewed data to guide the way, but presumably the further along the scale we get away from the COVID hotbox the better our results. I'm going to assume that the less you are exposed to COVID the more effective vaccines are in further reducing your chances of getting COVID because the protection they provide is less likely to be overcome by viral load. And I think that's a safe assumption, not because it's definitely right, but because if it's wrong then at least anything we did to act on that assumption wouldn't have made the pandemic worse. Vaccines are insanely efficient at preventing infection, actually, and the only study that claimed waning effectiveness in a matter of months suffered from Simpson's Paradox. We discussed this before, not sure why y'all keep repeating the same misinformation and nonsense.
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Sep 28, 2021 05:48
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Slow News Day posted:Vaccines are insanely efficient at preventing infection, actually, and the only study that claimed waning effectiveness in a matter of months suffered from Simpson's Paradox. Sufficient and efficient are not the same word. Something can be as wildly efficient as you like and still not be sufficient to stop spread.
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Sep 28, 2021 05:59
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Phigs posted:Sufficient and efficient are not the same word. Something can be as wildly efficient as you like and still not be sufficient to stop spread. Note that I didn't say anything about stopping the spread. I was responding to the "preventing infection" bit, and for that, vaccines are insanely efficient/sufficient/effective or whatever other word you prefer using.
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Sep 28, 2021 06:05
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Don’t make me tap the slide. Slow News Day posted:We discussed this before Indeed. Stickman posted:I've talked about this before but Simpson's paradox isn't actually a problem with the Israeli study, or at least not to the degree that you're implying. Epidemiologists are well aware of the potential for confounding (the larger principle underlying Simpson's paradox; reference just for anyone who might not know the term) and design their sampling and analyses to address them as much as possible. Israel's waning study only looks at infections in the Delta-dominant period from July 11-31 to avoid differences between Delta and Alpha infection. The analysis is stratified by age category, and further adjusted for specific age, gender, COVID testing propensity, major demographic group, and week of infection.
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Sep 28, 2021 06:17
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Interesting paper here on “common cold” coronavirus evolution. Some will recognize one of the authors, Trevor Bedford.quote:We adapted this method to detect adaptive substitutions in seasonal HCoVs. As shown in Figure 4, OC43 lineage A has continuously amassed adaptive substitutions in spike over the past >30 years while RdRp has accrued few, if any, adaptive substitutions. These adaptive substitutions are located within the S1, and not the S2, domain of spike (Figure 4). We observe a largely linear accumulation of adaptive substitutions in spike and S1 through time, although the method does not dictate a linear increase. This observation suggests that spike (and S1 in particular) is evolving in response to a continuous selective pressure. This is exactly what would be expected if these adaptive substitutions are evidence of antigenic evolution resulting from an evolutionary arms race between spike and the host immune system. S1 is the end of the spike that binds to the host cell. quote:We estimate that the receptor-binding domain of influenza A/H3N2 accumulates adaptive substitutions between two and three times faster than the HCoVs OC43 and 229E (Figure 6). The rates of adaptive substitution in influenza B/Yam and B/Vic are on par with the seasonal HCoVs. We detect no adaptive substitutions in the measles receptor-binding protein. These results put the evolution of the S1 domain of OC43 and 229E in context, indicating that the S1 domain is under positive selection, and that this positive selection generates new variants in the putative antigenic regions of these HCoVs at about the same rate as influenza B strains and about half the rate of the canonical example of antigenic evolution, the HA1 domain of influenza A/H3N2.  quote:Figure 6 The polymerase genes we expect not to change much because lots of changes could break their function and they’re not really exposed to the host immune system, and indeed that’s what we see. The business end of the spike, in contrast, changes a lot in these two coronaviruses. Interestingly, it does not change a lot in NL63, which as I said on the last page, binds to human cells in the same places as SARS‐CoV‐2. quote:We do not observe evidence of antigenic evolution in NL63 (Figure 3—figure supplement 1 and Figure 5—figure supplement 1). This likely represents a lack of marked adaptive evolution in S1. Our finding fits with a study of NL63 in Kenya, which identified multiple genotypes of NL63 and show that people regularly become reinfected with the same genotype of NL63 (Kiyuka et al., 2018). Additionally, Kiyuka et al. found that these genotypes circulate locally for a long period of time, suggesting a decent amount of viral diversity and a potential lack of evolution due to immune selection. Though our results cannot explain why OC43 and 229E likely evolve antigenically while NL63 does not, Kiyuka et al. observe that NL63 reinfections are sometimes enhanced by a previous infection and hypothesize that NL63 is actually under purifying selection at epitope sites (Kiyuka et al., 2018).  quote:Figure 5—figure supplement 1
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Sep 28, 2021 06:48
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PostNouveau posted:What do you think I'm trying to say here? Again, this is arguing against ghosts in the context of this thread. Literally no one is saying that the current approach employed by the United States is reasonable. And we should exercise caution where we don't have much certainty - vaccine protection against infection is one of those things for sure, and no one should be using the fact that they're vaccinated, or even boosted, to justify abandoning other NPI. There are things we do have more certainty on though, and it's not inappropriate to change our behaviour based on that. Outdoor masked distanced visits are almost certainly low risk. Fomite transmission is rare, so the whole sanitize / quarantine groceries thing likely has low impact. Ignoring all evidence and assuming every possible negative thing about COVID is true isn't a reasonable approach. There are almost definitely impacts to mental health by prolonged self-isolation, and while I agree that the ideal case is a COVID zero strategy with quick, harsh lockdowns, that's not the situation that almost everyone in this thread finds themselves in, and taking that approach yourself personally isn't going to be a quick, short lockdown - it's going to be an indefinite, drawn out one.
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Sep 28, 2021 07:43
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:If you pretend there was the same number of each group instead of noticing there was nearly 4 times as many vaccinated people and 3 of the 4 hospitalizations and 100% of the deaths came out of a group of 39 unvaccinated people. oops i was wrong, thats what i get for posting late at night 
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Sep 28, 2021 11:45
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lil poopendorfer posted:oops i was wrong, thats what i get for posting late at night You got it wrong because the same crowd that has been posting misinformation pretty much daily posted the tweet in a way they were trying to make you think that.
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Sep 28, 2021 11:53
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https://twitter.com/AlbertBourla/status/1442807503742509065
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Sep 28, 2021 12:14
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:You got it wrong because the same crowd that has been posting misinformation pretty much daily posted the tweet in a way they were trying to make you think that. no I assumed the cohorts were similar in size. It was a careless mistake that I owned up to, please don't ascribe additional factors to it beyond that.
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Sep 28, 2021 12:45
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Platystemon posted:Interesting paper here on “common cold” coronavirus evolution. Some will recognize one of the authors, Trevor Bedford. What's fun about this one is that OC43 (a betacoronavirus to note, not a sarbecovirus as SARS CoV-2 is, though the distinction is mostly nil for our purposes) is suspected to have been responsible for a late 19th century pandemic which killed a few million people worldwide when it made its crossover from cattle. Nowadays we just call it the common cold.
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Sep 28, 2021 18:21
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Phigs posted:- The prison example is perfect for showing the point that NPIs are necessary to control the spread of COVID and that vaccines alone are not the answer. At this point you probably need to start citing where you're getting your information on these assertions that you're making, with the understanding that this will provide the thread the opportunity to point out where you are misinterpreting conclusions.
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Sep 28, 2021 18:45
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Potato Salad posted:At this point you probably need to start citing where you're getting your information on these assertions that you're making, with the understanding that this will provide the thread the opportunity to point out where you are misinterpreting conclusions. why not just point out the false information in his post?
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Sep 28, 2021 20:32
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Not sure where you would expect me to pull sources for an "assertion" I started with "I'm going to assume that". The rest obviously comes from the prison data posted up thread and are simply my own conclusions. People have already attacked the data and the validity of drawing conclusions from it so you needn't bother. If you have a different conclusion to offer then I'd be glad to hear it, but I don't need a lecture on the data science. I'm aware. I don't care. I continue to maintain the position that its better we people on the ground draw what conclusions we can with the data we have available, as it's available, during a pandemic where the authorities are showing their rear end.
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Sep 28, 2021 21:12
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Phigs posted:Not sure where you would expect me to pull sources for an "assertion" I started with "I'm going to assume that". Seriously. The first conclusion isn't unreasonable, but I think the second two are just kinda baseless speculation without a larger sample size. But I again advocate for enhanced personal protection like sticking with N95s rather than cloth masks and avoiding unnecessarily risky activities. I don't think most people in here disagree that more protective measures are needed, they just aren't making needlessly alarmist and speculative posts about it.
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Sep 28, 2021 21:16
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Phigs posted:Not sure where you would expect me to pull sources for an "assertion" I started with "I'm going to assume that". I'm at this point not sure if this is a bit. Phigs posted:People have already attacked the data and the validity of drawing conclusions from it so you needn't bother. That's essentially why I'm kind of pointing out that you probably need to pony up or shut up, unless you aren't aware that you are actively creating misinf- Phigs posted:I don't need a lecture on the data science. I'm aware. I don't care. Well there you go.
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Sep 28, 2021 21:30
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Phigs posted:Nobody is saying vaccines are worthless, they're saying they're grossly insufficient to stop infection and spread, especially after a few months without a booster... I mean, how did typing out this in particular not tip you off to the notion that you're going a bit fringe in your conclusions? It's not as extreme as Bobbert's Tylenol gotcha that, expanded, attempts to peddle the idea that "Vaccines aren't real if they aren't 100% individually effective", but this conclusion sits on that spectrum Potato Salad fucked around with this message at 21:37 on Sep 28, 2021 |
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Sep 28, 2021 21:33
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Potato Salad posted:At this point you probably need to start citing where you're getting your information on these assertions that you're making, with the understanding that this will provide the thread the opportunity to point out where you are misinterpreting conclusions. The prison outbreak infected 74% of prisoners in an 80% fully vaxxed prison in one month, with very high attack rates for both vaccinated and unvaccinated. That's definitely sufficient to say that this level of vaccination was insufficient to control the prison outbreak. There's a decent chance that no level of vaccination would have controlled it, though that depends on unknown dynamics. Vaxxed + previous infection seemed to have lower attack rates, but there enough uncontrolled confounders that it's tough to say anything beyond the population-level "vax rate was high but most were still infected" and "rates of serious disease were probably lower than they would have been otherwise". HelloSailorSign posted:What's fun about this one is that OC43 (a betacoronavirus to note, not a sarbecovirus as SARS CoV-2 is, though the distinction is mostly nil for our purposes) is suspected to have been responsible for a late 19th century pandemic which killed a few million people worldwide when it made its crossover from cattle. OC43 is significantly less virulent than SARS-CoV-2 in our current population, but it's definitely one of the nastier viruses we call "common colds" and has significant morbidity burden. While it's tough to find good information on its epidemiology and outcomes, one study looking at ~1,400 hospitalization for respiratory infections across 4 years in NY (mostly older patients) found that OC43 accounted for ~4-5%, compared to ~10% RSV and ~12% influenza A and B. They also note that the actual comparative hospitalization burden may be higher since they surveyed across the peak flu season, which didn't seem to coincide perfectly with OC43's seasonal pattern. While it's certainly possible that SARS-CoV-2 might end up eventually where oc43 is in terms of virulence, but I don't think we're at the point where we can assume that will happen or know how quickly it might occur. I assume that if oc43 is now significantly reduced in virulence that it was a combination of acquired immunity from repeated exposures (seasonal prevalence is currently ~5-10%) and mutation. Given that vaccinated breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections are still significantly more dangerous than seasonal influenza for older folks (based on estimated protection v severe disease and unvaccinated severity) we're definitely not there with vaccines alone, and probably not with infection-acquired immunity either. Unfortunately, I haven't found any good studies of the relative severity of reinfection - most just estimate protection vs reinfection but not severe disease. There's one study that claims to but it only looks at confirmed reinfections, which is pretty worthless for determining overall severity since less severe cases are not likely to be confirmed. Since we're talking about oc43, I got a hearty sad lol out of this anti-prescient paper from March 2020 that I came across while looking for oc43 sources: SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data the abstract posted:SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus from China, is spreading around the world, causing a huge reaction despite its current low incidence outside China and the Far East. Four common coronaviruses are in current circulation and cause millions of cases worldwide. This article compares the incidence and mortality rates of these four common coronaviruses with those of SARS-CoV-2 in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. It is concluded that the problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably being overestimated, as 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year compared with less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing. They then proceed to abuse the heck out the differences between CFR and IFR while ignoring study population bias effects! It looks like it didn't get a print publication until May - that must have been embarrassing.
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Sep 28, 2021 21:43
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Slow News Day posted:Vaccines are insanely efficient at preventing infection, actually, and the only study that claimed waning effectiveness in a matter of months suffered from Simpson's Paradox. I seem to recall Stickman rebutting that. Did you respond to his post? Also, I think at this point saying the current Covid vaccines are “insanely efficient” at preventing infection, at this stage, is a gross mischaracterization of their efficacy.
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Sep 28, 2021 21:44
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Real talk for a minute, as far as the US is concerned, is anyone in here against the idea of stronger NPIs in addition to big vaccination initiatives? I'm not saying you all can't debate and discuss but let's make sure we're not just yelling past each other when it comes to the bottom line. Which, ya know, is ideally doing whatever we can to stop and contain the spread of this deadly virus.
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Sep 28, 2021 21:45
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Professor Beetus posted:Seriously. The first conclusion isn't unreasonable, but I think the second two are just kinda baseless speculation without a larger sample size. The second one seems pretty reasonable, too. It's is an example of 80% full vaccination failing to prevent very high attack rates in a prison setting, so it wouldn't be surprising to see similar results in comparable environments. Stickman fucked around with this message at 21:49 on Sep 28, 2021 |
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Sep 28, 2021 21:45
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Professor Beetus posted:Real talk for a minute, as far as the US is concerned, is anyone in here against the idea of stronger NPIs in addition to big vaccination initiatives? I'm not saying you all can't debate and discuss but let's make sure we're not just yelling past each other when it comes to the bottom line. Which, ya know, is ideally doing whatever we can to stop and contain the spread of this deadly virus. I think people are mostly arguing about what and aren't effective NPIs and whether people are basing their personal risk assessments on accurate data. And given that I'd say all but maybe 5 people in this thread have their expertise on the subject come from the school of Google that's where it gets yelly.
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Sep 28, 2021 21:49
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Professor Beetus posted:Real talk for a minute, as far as the US is concerned, is anyone in here against the idea of stronger NPIs in addition to big vaccination initiatives? Of all my friends and family, I know exactly 1 couple who still wears masks and isnt having regular gettogethers. I think people in the US are very much against the idea of NPIs and lockdowns. Can't speak for goons specifically, but I get that feeling from this thread.
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Sep 28, 2021 21:49
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Professor Beetus posted:Real talk for a minute, as far as the US is concerned, is anyone in here against the idea of stronger NPIs in addition to big vaccination initiatives? I'm not saying you all can't debate and discuss but let's make sure we're not just yelling past each other when it comes to the bottom line. Which, ya know, is ideally doing whatever we can to stop and contain the spread of this deadly virus. Pretty sure that’s universal. Some of us are less pumped about it but still going to do it because it’s the safe thing to do and some are more enthusiastic. But no one is arguing for removing NPIs
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Sep 28, 2021 21:51
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I haven't seen anyone in here defend any public indoor activities without a mask (i.e. dining, gyms, retail), so I'd say that's probably a reasonable baseline where no one really disagrees that those are reasonable NPI anywhere where there's more than a minuscule amount of cases. I'd go so far as to say no one thinks that anyone should be in anything less than an N95 as well, but I'm less sure about that.
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Sep 28, 2021 21:58
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enki42 posted:I haven't seen anyone in here defend any public indoor activities without a mask (i.e. dining, gyms, retail), so I'd say that's probably a reasonable baseline where no one really disagrees that those are reasonable NPI anywhere where there's more than a minuscule amount of cases. I'd go so far as to say no one thinks that anyone should be in anything less than an N95 as well, but I'm less sure about that. My gym won't require masks in Victoria, Aus, but that's only when we get to 80% double dose, and there are density requirements as well.
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Sep 28, 2021 22:00
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nexous posted:Of all my friends and family, I know exactly 1 couple who still wears masks and isnt having regular gettogethers. I think people in the US are very much against the idea of NPIs and lockdowns. Can't speak for goons specifically, but I get that feeling from this thread. Your anecdotes don't seem to line up with most posters in the thread, which seems to have a pretty decent consensus that more protection measures are needed in the US. For me personally this thread has been a great sanity check when watching a bunch of family and friends party like it's 2019. (And then seeing them get covid and hella sick). Stickman posted:The second one seems pretty reasonable, too. It's is an example of 80% full vaccination failing to prevent very high attack rates in a prison setting, so it wouldn't be surprising to see similar results in comparable environments. Fair enough but my larger point was just that there aren't really posters in here arguing against protection measures being increased in the US, just some pushback on details about what this information potentially means for policy. Again, the discussion has been good and I'm pretty happy with it, I just wanted to check in a little. Good postin' enki42 posted:I haven't seen anyone in here defend any public indoor activities without a mask (i.e. dining, gyms, retail), so I'd say that's probably a reasonable baseline where no one really disagrees that those are reasonable NPI anywhere where there's more than a minuscule amount of cases. I'd go so far as to say no one thinks that anyone should be in anything less than an N95 as well, but I'm less sure about that. I was getting comfortable with wearing just a cloth or surgical mask to protect others in case I was asymptomatic but since Delta I'm back to shaving and N95s and I would recommend most posters here do the same. I know some folks have said that they feel safer with less but it's definitely not a common opinion expressed here so far. Professor Beetus fucked around with this message at 22:05 on Sep 28, 2021 |
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Sep 28, 2021 22:02
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StrangeThing posted:My gym won't require masks in Victoria, Aus, but that's only when we get to 80% double dose, and there are density requirements as well. Just as a fun comparison, the 7 day moving average for your state is almost exactly 1/10th of where I live, California, the only state in the US that's doing slightly OK.
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Sep 28, 2021 22:04
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nexous posted:Of all my friends and family, I know exactly 1 couple who still wears masks and isnt having regular gettogethers. I think people in the US are very much against the idea of NPIs and lockdowns. Can't speak for goons specifically, but I get that feeling from this thread. This has been my experience as well, though Canada-side more people are wearing masks. The college-aged people tend not to unless mandated, unfortunately
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Sep 28, 2021 22:09
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Potato Salad posted:I mean, how did typing out this in particular not tip you off to the notion that you're going a bit fringe in your conclusions? No. You're choosing to draw anti-vaxx poo poo into it. I started with nobody is saying vaccines are worthless and ended with saying that NPIs help vaccines further reduce chances of infection. In what world is that anti-vaxx? And it's not fringe or at least it loving shouldn't be, to push the idea that we need NPIs in addition to vaccines in order to properly deal with the pandemic. Which if you read what I wrote with the spirit of trying to understand it, is actually the thesis of that post. And I stand by the statement that vaccinations are grossly insufficient to stop spread alone. Sufficiency to stop spread would require that they completely stop spread by themselves. In that, they are grossly insufficient. They help. But help and sufficient are leagues different. You need NPIs to stop the spread, which is why I was pointing out that the vaccines are not sufficient. And drawing conclusions from early data is not "misinformation". Who do you think is still reading this thread anyway? Who do you think is going to read that post of mine and think they're reading some authoritative information and thus be misinformed by it?
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Sep 28, 2021 22:09
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In my experience, people will wear a mask if they're mandated and will not if they aren't. Indoors or whatever, doesn't matter. There is also a cascading effect where if they go into a place and like half the people aren't wearing one, they'll take their own off because if it's not getting enforced who cares. So it's a two prong thing
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Sep 28, 2021 22:09
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Epic High Five posted:In my experience, people will wear a mask if they're mandated and will not if they aren't. Indoors or whatever, doesn't matter. There is also a cascading effect where if they go into a place and like half the people aren't wearing one, they'll take their own off because if it's not getting enforced who cares. So it's a two prong thing Saw this the other day. I went to a private garden that has a fairly limited entrance per day, everything out door and distanced. They required masks for everyone but apparently nobody told 75% of the men(and it was all men, despite a 50/50 gender split on attendees), and soon almost everyone took their masks off. So we left.
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Sep 28, 2021 22:14
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My work is sending out n95s to everyone, a new policy after updating their covid policies the other week. I dont plan to shave my beard to wear them, though. That seems to me a little excessive for my situation.
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Sep 28, 2021 22:14
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Up where I am (Toronto, Canada) there really isn't much opposition to the NPIs we have now, which includes masking indoors (except for when you're eating or drinking). There's decent levels of mask compliance on the street but it ain't perfect. That being said I don't know anyone personally who wears N95s but most people I know are wearing medical masks. However while people seem to be tolerating how things are now and could maybe handle a few things being pulled back (stopping indoor dining for a while, tighter capacity limits at retail, etc...), I really don't think the city has the stomach for another full lockdown/stay at home order where you can't see any friends or family or do anything. The last one was seven months long.
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Sep 28, 2021 22:25
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We have a box full of N95s at the door and the mandate that anyone not wearing a KN95 or better can use one of the free provided masks. There was some pushback initially but some people have thankfully asked for extras and we're happy to provide
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Sep 28, 2021 22:40
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I also prefer N95s for the comfort factor of not feeling disgusting after 5 minutes because seasonal allergies make my nose run.
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Sep 28, 2021 22:42
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Jaxyon posted:Just as a fun comparison, the 7 day moving average for your state is almost exactly 1/10th of where I live, California, the only state in the US that's doing slightly OK. We also have about 1/5th the population of California and have been under incredibly strict lockdown for two months now, so this actually looks very bad IMO! (Unless California is undertesting, which is probably true of anywhere that's mostly gone back to normal.)
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Sep 28, 2021 23:14
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freebooter posted:We also have about 1/5th the population of California and have been under incredibly strict lockdown for two months now, so this actually looks very bad IMO! (Unless California is undertesting, which is probably true of anywhere that's mostly gone back to normal.) Indiana has roughly the same population and 4x the numbers. Tennessee roughly 5x. Delta is really really infectious.
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Sep 28, 2021 23:21
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HelloSailorSign posted:What's fun about this one is that OC43 (a betacoronavirus to note, not a sarbecovirus as SARS CoV-2 is, though the distinction is mostly nil for our purposes) is suspected to have been responsible for a late 19th century pandemic which killed a few million people worldwide when it made its crossover from cattle. It’s interesting that OC43 appears to have mellowed out quickly, but there’s a lot about the behavior of coronaviruses that we don’t understand. Genetic analysis of the other human embecovirus, HKU1, suggests that it entered the human population even more recently than OC43, in the late twentieth century, yet caused disease mild enough to go unnoticed till it was caught up in the investigation of SARS in 2004.
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Sep 29, 2021 00:21
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freebooter posted:We also have about 1/5th the population of California and have been under incredibly strict lockdown for two months now, so this actually looks very bad IMO! (Unless California is undertesting, which is probably true of anywhere that's mostly gone back to normal.) I remember your posts back during the lockdown you guys did over there towards end of last year, iirc it was a grind but you all eventually starved out the 2nd wave of the OG strain I think. Respect for putting in work like that.
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Sep 29, 2021 00:26
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