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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Potato Salad posted:I mean, how did typing out this in particular not tip you off to the notion that you're going a bit fringe in your conclusions? How is that a fringe conclusion? You could quibble over the word “grossly”, but the basic point is straight out of CDC’s July presentation.   If that’s true of the general population, “grossly” is appropriate when considering more vulnerable populations, e.g. prisoners. Stickman posted:Since we're talking about oc43, I got a hearty sad lol out of this anti-prescient paper from March 2020 that I came across while looking for oc43 sources: This one is not as bad but still had me pausing and considering how times have changed. First sentence of abstract: quote:Coronavirus (CoV) infection of humans is usually not associated with severe disease. Now, to be fair, it’s followed by: quote:However, discovery of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) CoV revealed that highly pathogenic human CoVs (HCoVs) can evolve. Still, no one would write the first sentence now, after not only SARS, but MERS and SARS‐CoV‐2 as well emerging in a span of about fifteen years. e: 
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Sep 29, 2021 00:46
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Platystemon posted:It’s interesting that OC43 appears to have mellowed out quickly, but there’s a lot about the behavior of coronaviruses that we don’t understand. The recent evidence that the 1890 pandemic was OC43 is pretty cool, too (in a horrifying way). The molecular clock argument has been around for a while: the divergence of OC43 from it's closest bovine relative was estimated to be ~1890 back in 2005. The new evidence is that it's clinical presentation seems closer to SARS-CoV-2 than to influenza. quote:Contemporary medical reports from Britain and Germany on patients suffering from a pandemic infection between 1889 and 1891, which was historically referred to as the Russian flu, share a number of characteristics with COVID-19. Most notable are aspects of multisystem affections comprising respiratory, gastrointestinal and neurological symptoms including loss of taste and smell perception; a protracted recovery resembling long covid and pathology observations of thrombosis in multiple organs, inflammation and rheumatic affections. As in COVID-19 and unlike in influenza, mortality was seen in elderly subjects while children were only weakly affected. Contemporary reports noted trans-species infection between pet animals or horses and humans, which would concur with a cross-infection by a broad host range bovine coronavirus dated by molecular clock arguments to an about 1890 cross-species infection event. E: Where'd the bunny go? Stickman fucked around with this message at 01:01 on Sep 29, 2021 |
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Sep 29, 2021 00:57
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Can we get some direct evidence of OC43 in Russia? Surely some victims were buried in permafrost, where the virus could be preserved for decades, as happened with the1918 pandemic influenza.
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Sep 29, 2021 01:07
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nexous posted:Of all my friends and family, I know exactly 1 couple who still wears masks and isnt having regular gettogethers. I think people in the US are very much against the idea of NPIs and lockdowns. Can't speak for goons specifically, but I get that feeling from this thread. Covid/delta just isn't bad enough to get a lot of people to sit up and take notice. It just isn't. For instance I can look at the numbers for the US, see 700,000 dead and think "gently caress!" I read all about Covid and scare myself, read more and try and get a grip on my fears etc etc for nearly two years now. I can imagine most people in here are the same. We read about ICU's full of unvaccinated people causing people without covid to die, we can see the cost. But for a huge percentage of the population this isn't how they get their information. They watch a bit of news, scroll through some headlines, forget about it and get on with their day. And for most of them, beyond the inconvenience of lockdown, this is their experience of Covid. In the States, despite everything, the average person is still very unlikely to know anyone who has died from Covid, in an extended circle of 100 friends they probably know 1 person who got it bad enough to go to hospital. For most people, this is still something that is happening to other people, not them or their friends and if they do know someone who had it, overwhelmingly they would have experienced a bad cold. If it was "Airborne Ebola!!" you'd see much more uptake of NPIs and lockdowns. Its basically hit that sweet spot of not bad enough to get enough people to take it seriously and bad enough to cause mass death and illness. If I went by what I read online or in this thread I'd think that everyone in the US or UK was either dying or surrounded by incredibly sick people. It's impossible to escape, it's so contagious. But the numbers don't show that. 11% of the UK has had covid (tested) and that includes the vast majority who didn't get it very badly at all. 13% of the US has had a recorded case of Covid. It's still possible to live in either of these places and not actually know anyone who has had Covid over 18 months into a pandemic. My whole family lives in London or the South East of England and between them all they know 3 people who have had it. One of that three, in their 70s, went to hospital and got sent home a few hours later, he's now fine. Of course in reality, this just means there's a huge amount of people waiting to get it in the future! But at the moment, those are the numbers. This isn't a post about why we should ditch masks or anything. I think all these things are necessary going forward. It's just why I think there's a lot of people ready to ditch masks and social distancing as soon they're allowed. Because for them Covid is not some terrifying reality, it's something on the TV that's inconveniencing them a lot.
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Sep 29, 2021 01:32
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Right. With all the messaging from the different administrations and economists trying to convince everyone everything is okay, you can’t blame the average person for thinking it’s over.
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Sep 29, 2021 02:18
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Way back in March ~20% of Americans had lost someone"close to them" (30% for Black/Hispanic folks, 15% for White), and we've added 150k+ deaths since then. Delta is estimated to have infected ~8% of Americans in just two months (so far), which is well into the "nearly everyone knows someone with a Delta infection" territory (though maybe not with a severe disease, which might put some people back into your categories). At this point I think it's less that people aren't personally connected to disease and death and more that a very large proportion of the population finds it easier to rationalize away the disease and deaths of their friends and family members, some because they feel like they don't have any power to do otherwise and others because they've been indoctrinated by the right-wing meat-grinder propaganda machine.
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Sep 29, 2021 02:23
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Stickman posted:Way back in March ~20% of Americans had lost someone"close to them" (30% for Black/Hispanic folks, 15% for White), and we've added 150k+ deaths since then. Delta is estimated to have infected ~8% of Americans in just two months (so far), which is well into the "nearly everyone knows someone with a Delta infection" territory (though maybe not with a severe disease, which might put some people back into your categories). 0.2% of America's population has died from covid. I find it hard to believe it only effects the most popular people in America.
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Sep 29, 2021 03:33
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Illuminti posted:0.2% of America's population has died from covid. I find it hard to believe it only effects the most popular people in America. each COVID-19 death to translate into 8.91 surviving individuals having experienced the death of a grandparent, parent, sibling, spouse, or child. More than 120 000 US children have lost a primary caregiver to COVID-19, as of June this year.. If you feel these numbers don't reflect your lived experience, perhaps consider your good fortune/privilege instead of minimizing what has been an unimaginably traumatic experience for many.
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Sep 29, 2021 04:04
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Just yesterday, the Lock-picking Lawyer posted about the retirement of his old friend, Bosnian Bill. It turns out that the reason Bill’s been offline for several months is that he’s been busy looking after a friend’s seven– and nine‐year‐old kids. The friend died of COVID‐19. Her husband survived, but for several months he was too sick to care for the kids.
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Sep 29, 2021 04:15
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Blitter posted:each COVID-19 death to translate into 8.91 surviving individuals having experienced the death of a grandparent, parent, sibling, spouse, or child. Who said anything about minimizing? You're willfully missing my point to try and score some moral outrage points. Every one of those deaths is a tradgedy that could've been avoided. However, for 322 million Americans using your numbers, their lived experience matches mine. They don't know anyone who has died from covid. Again I was simply suggesting this is why so many seem to not be too bothered about giving up make and social distancing
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Sep 29, 2021 04:23
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-Blackadder- posted:I remember your posts back during the lockdown you guys did over there towards end of last year, iirc it was a grind but you all eventually starved out the 2nd wave of the OG strain I think. Respect for putting in work like that. I think it remains the largest outbreak in the world to have been brought back down to elimination solely through NPIs (Taiwan's earlier this year was comparatively smaller) and boy howdy does that make it frustrating when the rest of the world couldn't be hosed, brewed up a super contagious new variant and undid all our effort. It was still worth it, obviously, since tens of thousands of Australians are still alive who wouldn't be if we had policies comparable to a European country, and we got to have a totally COVID-free summer and autumn. I find it laughable now when right-wing commentators smugly compare Australia to the UK where life has gone back to "normal" while we're in lockdown because our vaccination rates were too low. Worst-case scenario, all of Australia outside Melbourne reaches that UK-level status quo by New Year's having racked up much less cumulative time in lockdown and also without getting 100,000+ citizens killed.
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Sep 29, 2021 04:35
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Is anyone else cutting out leisure activities that carry some degree of risk due to zero ICU bed capacity nearby? I’d normally be mountain biking in the fall, but I’m paranoid there’d be nowhere for me to go within 200mi if really messed myself up.
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Sep 29, 2021 04:45
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Tacier posted:Is anyone else cutting out leisure activities that carry some degree of risk due to zero ICU bed capacity nearby? I’d normally be mountain biking in the fall, but I’m paranoid there’d be nowhere for me to go within 200mi if really messed myself up. Seems reasonable. If not cutting out, at least taking things easy-- don't do particularly challenging or dangerous stuff.
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Sep 29, 2021 04:46
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freebooter posted:I think it remains the largest outbreak in the world to have been brought back down to elimination solely through NPIs (Taiwan's earlier this year was comparatively smaller) and boy howdy does that make it frustrating when the rest of the world couldn't be hosed, brewed up a super contagious new variant and undid all our effort. It was still worth it, obviously, since tens of thousands of Australians are still alive who wouldn't be if we had policies comparable to a European country, and we got to have a totally COVID-free summer and autumn. Vic is on track for 90% first dose by October 13 
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Sep 29, 2021 04:50
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Platystemon posted:Just yesterday, the Lock-picking Lawyer posted about the retirement of his old friend, Bosnian Bill. The comments don't even mention covid. Wouldn't want to hit on the elephant in the room.
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Sep 29, 2021 04:53
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Fritz the Horse posted:Seems reasonable. If not cutting out, at least taking things easy-- don't do particularly challenging or dangerous stuff. Yeah, and do your best not to have an emergency medical condition that requires immediate hospitalization. 
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Sep 29, 2021 04:58
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Tacier posted:Is anyone else cutting out leisure activities that carry some degree of risk due to zero ICU bed capacity nearby? I’d normally be mountain biking in the fall, but I’m paranoid there’d be nowhere for me to go within 200mi if really messed myself up. Now that ambulances have started ramping outside Melbourne's hospitals I think I might leave the motorbike be for a while.
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Sep 29, 2021 05:20
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Illuminti posted:Covid/delta just isn't bad enough to get a lot of people to sit up and take notice. It just isn't. For instance I can look at the numbers for the US, see 700,000 dead and think "gently caress!" I read all about Covid and scare myself, read more and try and get a grip on my fears etc etc for nearly two years now. I can imagine most people in here are the same. We read about ICU's full of unvaccinated people causing people without covid to die, we can see the cost. Not arguing with you here but I wanna point out that people can get upset about 1 white woman or girl going missing. All it takes is the media making them care. COVID is plenty bad enough for people to care, the media is just not showing them what is happening. It's not hyping it up the way they hype up other juicy stories. If it bleeds it leads and there's all kinds of blood out there than the media just does not care to show.
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Sep 29, 2021 06:49
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Phigs posted:Not arguing with you here but I wanna point out that people can get upset about 1 white woman or girl going missing. All it takes is the media making them care. COVID is plenty bad enough for people to care, the media is just not showing them what is happening. It's not hyping it up the way they hype up other juicy stories. If it bleeds it leads and there's all kinds of blood out there than the media just does not care to show. Hmmm, maybe. It can make them care about a girl going missing, but if the police said we need everyone to stay in their house for one night so we can find her killer, you can bet 90% of the population would say "get hosed". I don't think there's anyone who hasn't seen horrible stories or doesn't know that the ICUs are overflowing. But at the moment, with the case numbers we have (huge though they in reality are) for the majority of people this is happening "elsewhere". It's like watching the news about an earthquake in India or a famine in Eritrea. They care....for as long as they're looking at it.....but it's not happening to them so they're pretty blasé about it. Out of sight out of mind.
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Sep 29, 2021 07:02
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Phigs posted:Not arguing with you here but I wanna point out that people can get upset about 1 white woman or girl going missing. All it takes is the media making them care. COVID is plenty bad enough for people to care, the media is just not showing them what is happening. I've seen countless media stories about individuals dying alone and horribly in the ICU. I think - aside from one death being a tragedy a million being a statistic etc - it's just that we have chimpanzee brains and are wired to be scared of unexpected violent things like murder and less of a slow death by virus-induced suffocation.
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Sep 29, 2021 07:04
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freebooter posted:I've seen countless media stories about individuals dying alone and horribly in the ICU. I think - aside from one death being a tragedy a million being a statistic etc - it's just that we have chimpanzee brains and are wired to be scared of unexpected violent things like murder and less of a slow death by virus-induced suffocation. I mean look at our stellar species response to climate change. For most people, it's so far having very little effect on their lives so they just ignore it. Covid is obviously a more urgent a shorter time framed disaster but I'd argue it is on the same spectrum. Obviously all this might change in 3 years if literally half the population has had a grandparent drown in their own fluids. But at this moment it seems to me this is a big factor in people response to precautionary measures like masks etc
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Sep 29, 2021 07:13
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StrangeThing posted:Vic is on track for 90% first dose by October 13 I'm still furious NSW is gonna be 90% second dosed 12 days later. I mean seriously....wft?
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Sep 29, 2021 07:15
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Phigs posted:Not arguing with you here but I wanna point out that people can get upset about 1 white woman or girl going missing. All it takes is the media making them care. COVID is plenty bad enough for people to care, the media is just not showing them what is happening. It's not hyping it up the way they hype up other juicy stories. If it bleeds it leads and there's all kinds of blood out there than the media just does not care to show. I've seen all kinds of human interest reporting about the state of health care; telling the stories of burnt out healthcare workers in hospitals overwhelmed with ICUs full of covid patients. I am not sure if it's so much "there is no media coverage" as this is "not being blasted on cnn" but I guarantee you anyone in the "casually opens poo poo they see on pocket" demo has been reading about it. My partner does way more doom scrolling than I do and she's just as horrified as when we went through our poo poo. If I went through that today she wouldn't be able to be there with me and that was a miserable enough experience with her by my side. I wouldn't wish a hospital stay on anyone right now, so if you normally have trouble assessing risk, this is probably not the time to be drunk driving, freehand climbing, having cardiac events, etc.
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Sep 29, 2021 07:18
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Yea blasting 24/7 on CNN is what I was talking about. The media is not refusing to show it, but they're not doing the flood the airways thing they sometimes do for other tragedies.
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Sep 29, 2021 07:21
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Phigs posted:Yea blasting 24/7 on CNN is what I was talking about. The media is not refusing to show it, but they're not doing the flood the airways thing they sometimes do for other tragedies. Yeah, those overwhelmed ICUs should be on blast 24/7 in people's faces, I don't care if John Oliver has to do some dumbass gimmick and buy ad space on fox news or some poo poo to do it. Whatever it takes to get people to vaxx the gently caress up. e: I mean if our media's just going to take the mindless dribble that pours out of congress at face value, maybe some of the smarter congress critters could start putting media on blast for not doing their civic loving duty. I mean at the very least.
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Sep 29, 2021 07:24
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Illuminti posted:Who said anything about minimizing? You're willfully missing my point to try and score some moral outrage points. Every one of those deaths is a tradgedy that could've been avoided. However, for 322 million Americans using your numbers, their lived experience matches mine. They don't know anyone who has died from covid. Again I was simply suggesting this is why so many seem to not be too bothered about giving up make and social distancing "Someone close to you" is quite a bit more expansive than just immediate relatives. Since death (especially COVID death) is shocking I expect most people would probably include extended family, close friends, old/family friends, and possibly closer acquaintances / long-time coworkers / church leaders and members / etc under the umbrella of "losing someone close to you". And that's okay, because they have the impact. Heck, I'm not particularly social and don't have a large family and I can think of 60 or so people off the top of my head who's COVID death I would call "lost someone close to me" without getting anywhere close to celebrities and internet superstars. E: I think I didn't mention it before, but US estimated cumulative incidence is ~40-50% of the population, minus a smidge for reinfections. Stickman fucked around with this message at 07:35 on Sep 29, 2021 |
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Sep 29, 2021 07:28
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Stickman posted:"Someone close to you" is quite a bit more expansive than just immediate relatives. Since death (especially COVID death) is shocking I expect most people would probably include extended family, close friends, old/family friends, and possibly closer acquaintances / long-time coworkers / church leaders and members / etc under the umbrella of "losing someone close to you". And that's okay, because they have the impact. Heck, I'm not particularly social and I can think of 60 or so people off the top of my head who's COVID death I would call "lost someone close to me" without getting anywhere close to celebrities and internet superstars. It heavily depends on your social circle. My closest personal experiences would be the death of a friends senile grandma in a nursing home and that another friends dad was put into ICU before slowly recovering, also his wife was asymptomatic. I've never met any of those people. I'm not a recluse, but the disease still disproportionately affects old people and you tend to hang out with people your own age. And if your friends don't tend to go to massive raves, or motorcycle conventions, it's sort of likely to never have a personal contact with the effects of the virus. Granted, some closer friends might have been infected without even noticing it. Come to think of it, there were a few more things. My upstairs neighbour was infected once, for a week and my sister had to spend two weeks in quarantine because she spend a whole evening with an infected friend of hers. Also a friend went to quarantine because someone at the waiting room at her doctors appointment was infected. It did not spread to either of them. This virus is weird . Even extensive contact is not a guarantee that it spreads. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 07:47 on Sep 29, 2021 |
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Sep 29, 2021 07:41
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Illuminti posted:I'm still furious NSW is gonna be 90% second dosed 12 days later. I mean seriously....wft? NSW residents dived hard for vaccines and ignored the dumbass AGATI advice on AstroZenica as soon as Delta was detected. Sure they seriously hosed up the initial response to Delta but they are getting the get everyone vaccinated right
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Sep 29, 2021 07:52
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Are those vaccination estimates based on logistical avialability? Because I'd estimate that the demand sinks down at some point. Germany has had more supply than demand for months now.
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Sep 29, 2021 07:57
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Stickman posted:"Someone close to you" is quite a bit more expansive than just immediate relatives. Since death (especially COVID death) is shocking I expect most people would probably include extended family, close friends, old/family friends, and possibly closer acquaintances / long-time coworkers / church leaders and members / etc under the umbrella of "losing someone close to you". And that's okay, because they have the impact. Heck, I'm not particularly social and don't have a large family and I can think of 60 or so people off the top of my head who's COVID death I would call "lost someone close to me" without getting anywhere close to celebrities and internet superstars. Without a specific definition of someone close to you this all seems a bit pointless. I would have said for most people "someone close to me" is a narrower net than what you have described. However, how would we know? We're both just speculating as it's not a very good question.
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Sep 29, 2021 08:05
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:NSW residents dived hard for vaccines and ignored the dumbass AGATI advice on AstroZenica as soon as Delta was detected. They also got an extra million+ pfizer shots than VIC. Way more than their allocation https://www.covid19data.com.au/vaccine-allocation third graph down
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Sep 29, 2021 08:08
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Illuminti posted:Without a specific definition of someone close to you this all seems a bit pointless. I would have said for most people "someone close to me" is a narrower net than what you have described. It's enough that people wrote down that they lost "someone close to me", which is likely more reflective of the psychological effect than trying to narrowly define some imposed relationships that count as sufficient. It probably would have been better as explicitly "I have been affected by the death of someone I know personally", but I think it's good enough to show that it's very likely that a lot more people are personally affected by COVID deaths than you originally implied (and the math backs that up). Like CCCB said, it depends heavily on demographics/risk factors/networks, too. Part of the problem is that many of the same people who are the most likely to have close network deaths and severe disease are also the most likely to be heavily invested in nonsense propaganda (because that means they and their families are higher risk).
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Sep 29, 2021 08:13
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Illuminti posted:They also got an extra million+ pfizer shots than VIC. Way more than their allocation Are they justifying this as triage or is it purely because the rear end in a top hat feds hate Vic?
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Sep 29, 2021 08:16
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Stickman posted:Are they justifying this as triage or is it purely because the rear end in a top hat feds hate Vic? Yes.
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Sep 29, 2021 08:18
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cant cook creole bream posted:Are those vaccination estimates based on logistical avialability? Because I'd estimate that the demand sinks down at some point. Germany has had more supply than demand for months now. Some parts of NSW are literally running out of people to vaccinate. Local govt areas are over 95% first dose and Camden in Sydney's south is 99%. NSW total right now is 87% first dose overall so the estimates look fairly realistic. The major holdout will be around Byron Bay / Kyogle (NE NSW) which is home to a very feral left wing anti-vaxxer movement. I didnt think it would get that high but glad to be wrong. Stickman posted:Are they justifying this as triage or is it purely because the rear end in a top hat feds hate Vic? Realistically... both
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Sep 29, 2021 10:52
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Anecdotally my young cousins in Western Australia (for non -Aussies, one of the world's most successful hard closed border COVID-zero jurisdictions where they're literally partying like it's 2019) have finally got around to getting their first jab, not because they were anti-vaxxers but just because COVID-zero breeds complacency and "I'll do it this afternooooooon." But now I think people over there are getting increasingly worried that it will inevitably leak in and the tried and tested short sharp lockdown won't be enough to stop Delta because it no longer did the trick in Melbourne or Canberra or Auckland, and they feel like their days are numbered.
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Sep 29, 2021 14:16
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Some interesting data has leaked about a Doctors group linked to Pro-Trump stuff, providing "consults" and unapproved treatments for COVID https://twitter.com/micahflee/status/1442969576719847425?s=20 https://twitter.com/micahflee/status/1442969598597369859?s=20
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Sep 29, 2021 15:19
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Illuminti posted:Hmmm, maybe. It can make them care about a girl going missing, but if the police said we need everyone to stay in their house for one night so we can find her killer, you can bet 90% of the population would say "get hosed". Nah, look how people embraced the local lockdown after the Boston Marathon bombing
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Sep 29, 2021 16:05
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CommieGIR posted:Some interesting data has leaked about a Doctors group linked to Pro-Trump stuff, providing "consults" and unapproved treatments for COVID Absolutely shocked that right wing media pushed "miracle" medical cures and distrust in order to graft. I thought for sure they'd not do the same thing they've been doing steadily for 50+ years.
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Sep 29, 2021 16:09
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CommieGIR posted:Some interesting data has leaked about a Doctors group linked to Pro-Trump stuff, providing "consults" and unapproved treatments for COVID Yeah, America's Frontline Doctors are one of the primary drivers behind coronavirus disinformation. You see them mentioned in a lot of the private facebook groups as FLCCC, where everyone is downing ivermectin and trying to argue with hospital doctors to change treatment protocols to include useless garbage. I'm surprised people are just talking about them now, they've been around since the beginning. It looks like they're just getting some internal records now though. These people are scum and I hope the Feds eventually get around to going after them.
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Sep 29, 2021 16:25
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