I don't think this was posted here but this is a fascinating FP article as to why China may be getting more aggressive https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/24/china-great-power-united-states/ China Is a Declining Power—and That’s the Problem quote:Why do great powers fight great wars? The conventional answer is a story of rising challengers and declining hegemons. An ascendant power, which chafes at the rules of the existing order, gains ground on an established power—the country that made those rules. Tensions multiply; tests of strength ensue. The outcome is a spiral of fear and hostility leading, almost inevitably, to conflict. “The growth of the power of Athens, and the alarm which this inspired in Sparta, made war inevitable,” the ancient historian Thucydides wrote—a truism now invoked, ad nauseum, in explaining the U.S.-China rivalry. I'd be interested to know y'alls thoughts on this Seth Pecksniff fucked around with this message at 00:10 on Sep 29, 2021 |
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 00:08 |
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# ? May 31, 2024 00:05 |
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Seth Pecksniff posted:I'd be interested to know y'alls thoughts on this Historical precedents and trends are useless for predicting something like this. 2000's China isn't 1900's Germany or Japan. China is acting like an rear end in a top hat nation because Xi is an rear end in a top hat and made their policies an extension of him. He grew up on "China is the world's whipping boy" and he wants China to be seen as strong. The easiest way to do that is puffing out it's chest and being a jerk to anyone who can't hit back. China's environmental, societal, and economic chickens are all coming home to roost very shortly/in the next 20 years. Whether China declines or implodes depends on how Xi handles the situation and a myriad of other factors that I don't think anyone can predict. Nobody is going to be able to give you a date, but the deck is firmly stacked against them.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 00:36 |
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Seth Pecksniff posted:I don't think this was posted here but this is a fascinating FP article as to why China may be getting more aggressive I'm not really buying their historical claims, but even if they're completely correct (they aren't), the basic argument doesn't hold because you can't look at a bunch of monarchies playing "The Great Game" in Europe and apply it to a single country that is the size of Europe, not a monarchy, and has nuclear weapons. I think some of the other posters here have it right - high chance of internal troubles, and that would probably rule out starting too much trouble outside. Hopefully.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 00:51 |
I don't think it's certainty (it's international relations, nothing ever is) but I think it's a interesting lens to view chinese actions through. "Wolf warrior diplomacy" is for domestic consumption, but why is that needed in 2021 when it wasn't in 2008? Also author avoids thinking or talking about how you could apply the same principle to the US (or maybe Iraq and Afghanistan were that already).
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 01:09 |
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Dongsturm posted:I'm not really buying their historical claims, but even if they're completely correct (they aren't), the basic argument doesn't hold because you can't look at a bunch of monarchies playing "The Great Game" in Europe and apply it to a single country that is the size of Europe, not a monarchy, and has nuclear weapons.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 01:33 |
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Seth Pecksniff posted:I don't think this was posted here but this is a fascinating FP article as to why China may be getting more aggressive It's easy to sound reasonable and right in retrospect.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 01:50 |
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GoutPatrol posted:if someone in China was gonna lay me 10x what I make in Taiwan for the same job... I would do it because that would be alot of money. But I have coworkers who came to Taiwan from China because it became increasingly difficult to do their job "the right way" because of gov. censorship. I hear basically this (but the inverse) from a lot of taiwanese people here in china. They say the TW job market sucks and both the number of good jobs and pay in mainland China is leagues ahead of anything they'd get back home. e: i've looked myself a few times and every time I do every time i look its sorta depressing lol. Ailumao fucked around with this message at 03:32 on Sep 29, 2021 |
# ? Sep 29, 2021 03:24 |
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Seth Pecksniff posted:I don't think this was posted here but this is a fascinating FP article as to why China may be getting more aggressive i agree with what others have posted - prognosticating is risky business and the narrative here is a bit too pat. I think the takeaways at the end are mostly good though, except if the us tries to manage chinese belligerence by “escalating to deescalate” it could backfire very badly. I’m not sure how much china right now can really destabilize the existing order though. It seems to want to establish client state relationships with countries in its sphere of influence, but any of the countries you’d really want can get a much better deal sticking with the us-led western free trade order. In the meantime china will remain stuck with nk and cambodia, who contribute very little to its vision. The most damaging thing it can really do is make a grab for taiwan, which will be destructive but ultimately have limited impact on the global economic system, not offer any substantive gains to china, and risks causing it to become a true pariah state.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 03:42 |
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Seth Pecksniff posted:China Is a Declining Power—and That’s the Problem Yeah, that's not good at all. Never mind expanding, I didn't even know a country could handle that sort of increase without collapsing. EDIT: Sisyphean is the word I was looking for. Nothingtoseehere posted:I don't think it's certainty (it's international relations, nothing ever is) but I think it's a interesting lens to view chinese actions through. "Wolf warrior diplomacy" is for domestic consumption, but why is that needed in 2021 when it wasn't in 2008? I'll give you eleven guesses. Megillah Gorilla fucked around with this message at 04:17 on Sep 29, 2021 |
# ? Sep 29, 2021 04:13 |
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Devils Affricate posted:Wait did Fojar gently caress some guild leader's wife or something? There's nothing recent on his rap sheet. My guess would be a different poster whom I will not name that had reasons for leaving that we will not mention due to safety.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 05:07 |
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Ailumao posted:I hear basically this (but the inverse) from a lot of taiwanese people here in china. They say the TW job market sucks and both the number of good jobs and pay in mainland China is leagues ahead of anything they'd get back home. Yeah I should point out the job of "social studies teacher" is going to have different kinds of issues. Yeah my brother in law's work has talked about sending him to Guangzhou (he's an engineer) and they would be paying him more...but ended up not going but there was pressure on him to do so.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 05:55 |
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therobit posted:My guess would be a different poster whom I will not name that had reasons for leaving that we will not mention due to safety. oh
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 06:01 |
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LimburgLimbo posted:But that frankly seems unlikely. Like ten years before the Soviet Union (mostly) dissolved, people who said the Soviet Union might go away at some point in the future were considered lunatics. Stuff happens
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 06:08 |
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Given the way that Tiananmen Square We have all seen periodic footage and read limited, suppressed reports about thousands of protests, particularly in the country or when some shady local govt sells off poor people's land. Yet now more than ever, they operate the levers and will periodically have a crackdown or show trial to relieve pressure and show they're cracking down on corruption. But without significant reform like with the courts and the hukou system with rich cities and poor barren countryside and brain drain will only grow worse, plus the looming threat of the poor unmarried guys destabilizing poo poo due to their Sex-selective abortion policy. I have no clue what the black swan event(s) could possibly be, but clearly there are plenty of risks and factors it could be. Their perceived strength and confidence in themselves is also comically brittle so I could see them totally overplay their hand on the international stage, like protesting at the UN that bone shards are in fact good and should be kept in.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 06:38 |
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People do protest stuff here fairly often, it's just not considered a bit deal unless it exceeds a certain threshold. One axis is target. From low to high government concern: Private company < State company < Local government < National government Other axis is organisation, from low to high again: Random angry people < Specific angry demographic < Group organised for this protest < Group organised for general protest. Low-low, and the only reason police might show up is to eat popcorn. You get a lot of this. High-high, and you're an enemy of the state. Never seen it personally.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 06:56 |
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3D Megadoodoo posted:Like ten years before the Soviet Union (mostly) dissolved, people who said the Soviet Union might go away at some point in the future were considered lunatics. Stuff happens I have a copy of the Canadian Institute of Strategic Studies Spring Proceedings. In it some of Canada’s leading defence experts discuss the ongoing serious threat posed by the Soviet Union and how to counter it into the future. It’s from 1989.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 07:20 |
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Fornax Disaster posted:I have a copy of the Canadian Institute of Strategic Studies Spring Proceedings. In it some of Canada’s leading defence experts discuss the ongoing serious threat posed by the Soviet Union and how to counter it into the future. Well it was drat successful!
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 07:22 |
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Purely conjectural and hypothetical. Also, (as I see it), very far fetched and if indeed were it to happen far far in the future. But, given all the USSR talk ... Could/Would China dissolve in a similar way? Coz current day China is indeed a loose union of several disparate states each with their own language, geography, ethnic and cultural identity only held together under the authoritarian fist of Beijing. So if poo poo indeed went down, would Sichuan secede? Would Guangdong? How about Xinjiang? And indeed if they did, would it be a similar story to the old USSR, where you have relatively wealthy and prosperous Lithuania and Ukraine lording over Moldova and Tajikstan. How would people in these new states deal with their new "freedom" under a completely different, (but likely just as corrupt and bureaucratic ), form of governance? Once again, this is entirely conjecture, and fanciful thinking that I personally do not think will happen.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 08:04 |
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Fornax Disaster posted:I have a copy of the Canadian Institute of Strategic Studies Spring Proceedings. In it some of Canada’s leading defence experts discuss the ongoing serious threat posed by the Soviet Union and how to counter it into the future. Yeah, it was much commented on at the time that there was an entire academic discipline of Soviet Studies, as well as every western intelligence agency focused on monitoring the goings on in the Eastern Bloc and yet next to nobody clocked on that the whole thing was about to disintegrate. It's something to bear in mind when we're browsing though the latest edition of Foreign Affairs or whatever and kidding ourselves that we're well informed about current events lol.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 09:02 |
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Megillah Gorilla posted:
I XI what you did there
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 09:15 |
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Pistol_Pete posted:It's something to bear in mind when we're browsing though the latest edition of Foreign Affairs or whatever and kidding ourselves that we're well informed about current events lol. No-one I've spoken to in China has had any drat idea about what's really going on inside the Beijing government, and this includes several people within the Beijing government, a couple of whom could be described as "middle ranking" who I ended up talking to accidentally. I'm motivated to pursue this information because it's nice to know if you'll have a job/house/visa tomorrow, but there's no good way of getting it for normal people, aside from 'after the fact'.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 09:16 |
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BrigadierSensible posted:So if poo poo indeed went down, would Sichuan secede? Would Guangdong? How about Xinjiang? And indeed if they did, would it be a similar story to the old USSR, where you have relatively wealthy and prosperous Lithuania and Ukraine lording over Moldova and Tajikstan. this is a rather strange take on soviet successor state relations. there's definitely an ongoing dynamic where a lot of the central asian states are have strong diplomatic ties to russia and a legacy of their political class wanting to remain in the good graces of the (now defunct) central party leadership in moscow (https://eurasianet.org/memoir-in-the-court-of-turkmenbashi and "oh, sure, we'll kick the US out of Manas" in https://eurasianet.org/memoir-diplomatic-tradeoffs-in-central-asia are fun reads), but i dont think they care much about lithuania or ukraine
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 09:16 |
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BrigadierSensible posted:Purely conjectural and hypothetical. Also, (as I see it), very far fetched and if indeed were it to happen far far in the future. Well, you know what they say, "Long United, Must Divide, Long Divided, Must Unite" In all seriousness though, in an internal collapse scenario, I don't see China dividing much in these days of instantaneous communication, aside from the culturally different Xinjiang and Tibet splitting off.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 09:19 |
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I doubt China will ever attain global superpower status. There's the demographics and other real problems it has, I agree it has already peaked and declining growth is the future. Climate change is also gonna throw a real wrench into the machinery in ways we cannot forsee, not just for China. Increasing global trade and integration aren't sure things anymore either, which further spells bad news for China who is reliant on that. I mean climate change alone might ruin that without even getting into the political issues. I think their best case scenario is to become another japan.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 09:22 |
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sticksy posted:comically brittle In this thread, I don't think we are able to use that term, it has 'baggage'. Similarly, terming a currency, stock, water table level as 'plunging' is difficult too.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 09:23 |
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url posted:In this thread, I don't think we are able to use that term, it has 'baggage'. Plumbing the filthy depths of thread history.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 09:24 |
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Atopian posted:Plumbing the filthy depths of thread history. I've read the article and have opinions, and I am thoroughly enjoy reading the opinions, back and forth etc. But, this is "that" thread, and some of the intra-thread jargon built over years have a visual 'stop the show' quality to them. (fwiw: best thread title was PlunQing 5000 years of history)
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 09:32 |
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Atopian posted:who I ended up talking to accidentally. lmao
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 09:59 |
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url posted:In this thread, I don't think we are able to use that term, it has 'baggage'.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 10:04 |
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I mean, I was just talking to someone in a bar, and I figured they were a minor official, and it turned out they were a (somewhat, relatively) major official. It wasn't accidental that I was talking to them, it was accidental that they were someone other than my usual level of chancers and randos.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 11:06 |
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url posted:(fwiw: best thread title was PlunQing 5000 years of history) Glad to hear that
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 12:36 |
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Xerxes17 posted:Glad to hear that I never did dig up who owned it. This is my e-blowjob. Years later, it's still well earned!
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 12:50 |
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therobit posted:My guess would be a different poster whom I will not name that had reasons for leaving that we will not mention due to safety.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 14:09 |
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[deleted] I dont need to add poo poo to anyone's life url fucked around with this message at 14:37 on Sep 29, 2021 |
# ? Sep 29, 2021 14:23 |
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Shumagorath posted:I don't get what you're trying to say here...? In the ~72hrs I was IK I had one person come to me with personal safety issues I brought to the staff, and I'm sorry to say it appears everyone is on their own. Also, Fojar is Canadian, the "not in China" kind of Canadian.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 14:24 |
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hypnophant posted:The most damaging thing it can really do is make a grab for taiwan, which will be destructive but ultimately have limited impact on the global economic system, not offer any substantive gains to china, and risks causing it to become a true pariah state. I agree that trying to take Taiwan would be a very stupid move on China's part, but I think you're underestimating the impact it would have. COVID hasn't been huge in Taiwan, but the disruption to chip manufacturing there has broken global industry in ways that aren't apparent to people who aren't tied into supply chains yet. Basically, electronics are going to be hard to come by for the next few years. China invading Taiwan would be that times ten. Enormous chip shortages for a few years while other capacity comes online and Taiwan rebuilds, China being sanctioned and manufacturing getting shuffled around. We're talking global depression regardless of the outcome. China attacking Taiwan is suicidally stupid. Doesn't mean they won't get all high on ideology and try, of course, just that if they do there will be ripple effects that break just about everything.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 14:50 |
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Random Stranger posted:China attacking Taiwan is suicidally stupid. Doesn't mean they won't get all high on ideology and try, of course, just that if they do there will be ripple effects that break just about everything. Just no one hand Xi a book on the Falkland Islands.
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 15:06 |
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China attacking Taiwan is just about as likely as North Korea restarting the war and invading South Korea. *thinks a little harder* oh poo poo
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 16:35 |
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That WW1 summary of "basically, it would have been a lot more work not to go to war" seems relevant
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 16:39 |
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# ? May 31, 2024 00:05 |
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Atopian posted:People do protest stuff here fairly often, it's just not considered a bit deal unless it exceeds a certain threshold. There was a protest in Chengdu once, maybe 50 people who didn't want a hugely polluting chemical plant to open. They locked down the entire city, cancelled the weekend, and had APCs and PAP out all over the city like it was an invasion. Wild poo poo. (Eventually, the plant did open, made Chengdu's air the worst in the world for a week, then the government shut it down permanently)
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# ? Sep 29, 2021 18:52 |