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Which horse film is your favorite?
This poll is closed.
Black Beauty 2 1.06%
A Talking Pony!?! 4 2.13%
Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor 117 62.23%
War Horse 11 5.85%
Mr. Hands 54 28.72%
Total: 188 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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HelloSailorSign
Jan 27, 2011

Stickman posted:

The recent evidence that the 1890 pandemic was OC43 is pretty cool, too (in a horrifying way). The molecular clock argument has been around for a while: the divergence of OC43 from it's closest bovine relative was estimated to be ~1890 back in 2005. The new evidence is that it's clinical presentation seems closer to SARS-CoV-2 than to influenza.

Yeah, the sea change of "coronaviruses aren't important, lol" in human medicine to, "oh poo poo, maybe they are" has been morbidly/scientifically funny to watch, especially from the veterinary field where we have a number of rather important coronaviruses. Early in the pandemic the foremost veterinarian expert on feline coronaviruses was trying to talk to various MD groups about coronaviruses and how they vary across groups on a number of things and they were largely ignored, lmao.

I don't subscribe to the idea anymore that viruses are primed to be evolutionarily pushed towards less virulence and that's the main way these things go. Early in the pandemic that's what I thought. It's more that we have a combination of virus/host responses including but not limited to: prior exposure (with some prior immunity) making subsequent infections less severe, evolution favoring transmissibility over mortality in the virus (but that's not necessary which is what I thought), and a shrinking pool of susceptible population to severe disease.

As far as the discussion as to, "what NPIs?" I am:
- pro masking indoors; I am ambivalent on cloth/surgical vs. N95 for brief encounter situations in places with good ventilation. I am pro N95, ambivalent P100, for workers who are in the same room(s) as other workers or who have extended customer interaction for their shift. For anything but the most at risk (immunocompromised, healthcare, etc.), I :rolleyes: at people with P100s (I have concerns regarding future exposures to other pathogens that we've gotten used to yearly or every other year exposure to maintain some level of immunity, similar to the RSV wave we have going on in kids)
- against indoor dining; Outdoor dining is... okay. I still think it's a bit risky to get food, depending on local case rates. Just go get it and go to a park or home or whatever.
- against lockdowns; not necessarily because they don't work, but they can only work if everyone actually follows them. I think it was decently demonstrated in California that if you lockdown an area with people who are willing to also forgo private encounters, lockdowns demonstrate the severity of the situation and encourage support of people who need to work to live. Meanwhile, if people are just hosting football parties at home instead of at the bar, and people have large overlapping friend circles, the transmission will occur anyway. To get lockdowns to work in both public and private arenas, we'd need to go back in time to destroy right wing media or greatly expand the powers of law enforcement which if you're in favor of that, yikes.
- for getting kids back in to schools; there are far more things to consider than simply COVID for kids. I think all school districts should be required to have significantly improved ventilation standards, I think there should be intelligent COVID testing protocols in place for kids, I think there should be required masking, and I think all school employees and students, if eligible, should have mandatory vaccination. It's unfortunate that in many places conservatives have used poor handling of the pandemic by public schools as yet another pro-private/charter school advertisement when it was them that cut the funding to schools and effectiveness of schools to respond in the first place.

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GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


HelloSailorSign posted:

I :rolleyes: at people with P100s (I have concerns regarding future exposures to other pathogens that we've gotten used to yearly or every other year exposure to maintain some level of immunity, similar to the RSV wave we have going on in kids)

First part of your post is interesting, but this stuck out. Dunno if you've talked to these people, but every person I know IRL that does the P100 is simply doing it not to unwittingly pass virus to their kids/immunocompromised family member until vaccination. Given a choice between a tiny risk and virtually zero risk, they choose the latter :shrug:

I do N95 for the same reasons, but I'm still a numbers guy at heart so I get wanting to see everything possible to protect loved ones.

Plenty of people who do it as overkill, but at least the ones here are really just waiting until the last two age groups can get their shots and they'll probably follow suit.

GonadTheBallbarian fucked around with this message at 18:15 on Sep 29, 2021

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
Are the p100s the full-on Bane-style cover your whole head and face respirators?

If so I would have no idea why people wear them, I've literally never seen a single person in one this entire pandemic.

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


How are u posted:

Are the p100s the full-on Bane-style cover your whole head and face respirators?

If so I would have no idea why people wear them, I've literally never seen a single person in one this entire pandemic.

Depends which ones you get, it seems like most people are going the route of what's available at the hardware store, so it's cartridges or the filters you lock into a half-face mask.

I've definitely thought about it once or twice when sanding a few pieces in the backyard, but a properly fitted N95 is really going to be more than enough for pretty much anybody and it's preferable because of the no valve thing. Trouble is, fit/facial hair etc.

\/\/ kids put you at incredible odds against not-kid-havers, it sucks

GonadTheBallbarian fucked around with this message at 18:26 on Sep 29, 2021

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

How are u posted:

Are the p100s the full-on Bane-style cover your whole head and face respirators?

If so I would have no idea why people wear them, I've literally never seen a single person in one this entire pandemic.

Well, theoretically if you are self-isolating out of an abundance of caution, vaccinated, and wearing a p100 every time you are around other people, your risk of catching covid is essentially zero. But personally I don't want to use anything with an exhalation valve that might not protect others if I am asymptomatic so I stick with a properly fitted n95 everywhere I go. I don't have anyone unvaxxed in my household though, if I lived with kids or an elderly family member, I might do things differently.

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.
P100 is just a filtration rating, not a mask type.

Full reusable face masks are called elastomerics, and they can be used with 95 or 100 level filtration.

There's disagreement on whether they protect just you, or you and others since they do not filter the output valve except on certain models.

Disposable masks generally don't have an exhalation valve and will filter air coming in and out.

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


/\/\ this

Though, in BC at least the kids thing is just... yikes

https://twitter.com/vb_jens/status/1442642992225943552

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



How are u posted:

Are the p100s the full-on Bane-style cover your whole head and face respirators?

If so I would have no idea why people wear them, I've literally never seen a single person in one this entire pandemic.

"Bane style" is just a half mask, the most common type by far

Full face also exist which tend to be a half mask and something to cover the eyes as well

Whole head and face would be, oh I forget the name but those bubble helmets that you see in BSL labs that are extremely expensive and unpleasant to wear a lot

The reason to wear an N95 is because you want to be protected from catching COVID among rather a lot else. The reason to wear a half mask is because you want to be SURE you are. The protection level depends on the cart you're using with them but anybody using one to avoid plague is gonna be rocking one of the P100's because otherwise why not just wear an N95

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Professor Beetus posted:

Well, theoretically if you are self-isolating out of an abundance of caution, vaccinated, and wearing a p100 every time you are around other people, your risk of catching covid is essentially zero. But personally I don't want to use anything with an exhalation valve that might not protect others if I am asymptomatic so I stick with a properly fitted n95 everywhere I go. I don't have anyone unvaxxed in my household though, if I lived with kids or an elderly family member, I might do things differently.

You can put a cloth mask over a respirator exhalation valve without any impact on performance. People figured this out months and months ago.

An N95 mask is good though, and frankly better than nothing which I saw a whole lot of in the grocery store this morning.

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Jaxyon posted:

P100 is just a filtration rating, not a mask type.

Full reusable face masks are called elastomerics, and they can be used with 95 or 100 level filtration.

There's disagreement on whether they protect just you, or you and others since they do not filter the output valve except on certain models.

Disposable masks generally don't have an exhalation valve and will filter air coming in and out.

Quick searching did not turn up any p100s that don't have exhalation valves and were not elastomerics, but I take your word that they exist. I might check out the masks section in the CSPAM thread but personally feel like vaxxed/n95 is more than enough, especially since we are still limiting our exposure to other people and enclosed spaces as much as is reasonably possible.

Salt Fish
Sep 11, 2003

Cybernetic Crumb

Jaxyon posted:

P100 is just a filtration rating, not a mask type.

Full reusable face masks are called elastomerics, and they can be used with 95 or 100 level filtration.

There's disagreement on whether they protect just you, or you and others since they do not filter the output valve except on certain models.

Disposable masks generally don't have an exhalation valve and will filter air coming in and out.

I don't believe that there is reasonable disagreement about this. The CDC says that exhalation valves are better than surgical masks at protecting people around you:

"As source control, findings from NIOSH research suggest that, even without covering the valve, N95 respirators with exhalation valves provide the same or better source control than surgical masks, procedure masks, cloth masks, or fabric coverings. In general, individuals wearing NIOSH-approved N95s with an exhalation valve should not be asked to use one without an exhalation valve or to cover it with a face covering or mask."

Ref: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...ic%20coverings.

HelloSailorSign
Jan 27, 2011

GonadTheBallbarian posted:

I've definitely thought about it once or twice when sanding a few pieces in the backyard, but a properly fitted N95 is really going to be more than enough for pretty much anybody. Trouble is, fit/facial hair etc.

I definitely considered getting a set for the family early in the pandemic as well as preparation for fire season, but as with the troubles you noted, I decided that N95 was sufficient for my area and given the data that emerged and continues to emerge on severity. There are some places where a P100 makes more sense if you're in antivaxxer central. But, for people who are in moderately to decently well vaxxed areas who are largely work from home? It's security theater.

Professor Beetus posted:

I don't have anyone unvaxxed in my household though, if I lived with kids or an elderly family member, I might do things differently.

The calculation certainly does change if you've got someone who is immunocompromised in your household - note that's why I included immunocompromised in my exceptions originally. It doesn't really change though if you got kids in my opinion (and I've got a young kid) because we have continued to demonstrate that young kids are at a vastly lower chance of severe disease than older people, something like a similar risk as a vaccinated mid 20s otherwise healthy person.

It's still terrifying to think about because as a parent you often get really risk averse, but the data does not support that kind of thinking. It's been an internal battle of mine between my emotional parent brain and my logical/data driven doctor brain.

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Nocturtle posted:

You can put a cloth mask over a respirator exhalation valve without any impact on performance. People figured this out months and months ago.

An N95 mask is good though, and frankly better than nothing which I saw a whole lot of in the grocery store this morning.

Salt Fish posted:

I don't believe that there is reasonable disagreement about this. The CDC says that exhalation valves provide source control above surgical masks:

"As source control, findings from NIOSH research suggest that, even without covering the valve, N95 respirators with exhalation valves provide the same or better source control than surgical masks, procedure masks, cloth masks, or fabric coverings. In general, individuals wearing NIOSH-approved N95s with an exhalation valve should not be asked to use one without an exhalation valve or to cover it with a face covering or mask."

Ref: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...ic%20coverings.

Nocturtle posted:

You can put a cloth mask over a respirator exhalation valve without any impact on performance. People figured this out months and months ago.

An N95 mask is good though, and frankly better than nothing which I saw a whole lot of in the grocery store this morning.

Last time this came up it was pointed out that those findings from NIOSH were disputed? Did that recently change? Either way I still think going with the best protection you can is advisable and everyone is coming from a different place. If I lived in Alabama I'd probably be rocking a half mask with p100 every time I stepped outside.

quote:

Until more is understood on exhalation valves, elastomeric respirators with unfiltered exhalation valves should not be used as source control in surgical and other healthcare settings due to concerns that air coming out of the exhalation valve may contaminate the sterile field. The NIOSH Certified Equipment List identifies the elastomeric respirators without exhalation valves or with filtered exhalation valves that may be used in surgical settings.

Ah, there we go.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



If an N95 worn properly (big if here) wasn't sufficient to prevent infection we'd probably know about it by now, if you're in the habit of wearing them it's probably safe to assume your exposure risks are going to be limited to times you aren't wearing them, such as it being brought into the home or any place outside of that where you are not wearing it for whatever reason. Of course if you're still N95 crew at this point you're also probably more cautious than whatever the local average is anyway

Half masks are also extremely useful to have around if you live in a place with lots of wildfires or air pollution

buglord
Jul 31, 2010

Cheating at a raffle? I sentence you to 1 year in jail! No! Two years! Three! Four! Five years! Ah! Ah! Ah! Ah!

Buglord
Hi everyone, where are the links to the good KN-95/N-95 masks? They were like a buck a pop or something. I know I can’t trust Amazon because they apparently mix in good product with counterfeit.

Pet Tax: (kinda gross so spoiling)

Turn off your monitor - see that? you are all my pets.

Salt Fish
Sep 11, 2003

Cybernetic Crumb

Professor Beetus posted:

Quick searching did not turn up any p100s that don't have exhalation valves and were not elastomerics, but I take your word that they exist. I might check out the masks section in the CSPAM thread but personally feel like vaxxed/n95 is more than enough, especially since we are still limiting our exposure to other people and enclosed spaces as much as is reasonably possible.
Common wisdom among elastomeric users is that the main consideration for them is cost, comfort, ease of cleaning, and breathability. If you need to wear a high filtration mask for 8 hours a day I don't see how a N95 can touch a good elastomeric, and the cost is about 30-50 USD per year even with heavy use.

I've used mine at busy/packed rest stops and for going to the hospital when I had to be in the waiting room for an appointment and both times it was really worth it for the peace of mind.

I understand and respect that people don't want to stick out, but if you put aside embarrassment and social factors it's hard to argue against their practicality and cost-effectiveness.

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.
lol if you're not wearing one of these to do go get your curbside pickup grocery runs




Mr. Pardiggle posted:

Hi everyone, where are the links to the good KN-95/N-95 masks? They were like a buck a pop or something. I know I can’t trust Amazon because they apparently mix in good product with counterfeit.

https://bonafidemasks.com/Powecom-kn-95/

nexous
Jan 14, 2003

I just want to be pure
The pros to elastomeric respirators include not disposing of countless disposable masks, comfort, cost (1 respirator is cheaper than going through a bunch of n95s), and lookin cool


also controlling the spread of tuberculosis: https://www.kens5.com/article/news/...6c-33ce89e193cc

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Salt Fish posted:

Common wisdom among elastomeric users is that the main consideration for them is cost, comfort, ease of cleaning, and breathability. If you need to wear a high filtration mask for 8 hours a day I don't see how a N95 can touch a good elastomeric, and the cost is about 30-50 USD per year even with heavy use.

I've used mine at busy/packed rest stops and for going to the hospital when I had to be in the waiting room for an appointment and both times it was really worth it for the peace of mind.

I understand and respect that people don't want to stick out, but if you put aside embarrassment and social factors it's hard to argue against their practicality and cost-effectiveness.

For me personally, it's that I just am not exposing myself enough ( :giggity: ) to warrant that kind of protection. Pretty much in and out wherever I go. So an n95 makes the most sense for me and the two boxes I bought at McLendons have lasted me for almost 2 months.

Epic High Five posted:

If an N95 worn properly (big if here) wasn't sufficient to prevent infection we'd probably know about it by now, if you're in the habit of wearing them it's probably safe to assume your exposure risks are going to be limited to times you aren't wearing them, such as it being brought into the home or any place outside of that where you are not wearing it for whatever reason. Of course if you're still N95 crew at this point you're also probably more cautious than whatever the local average is anyway

Half masks are also extremely useful to have around if you live in a place with lots of wildfires or air pollution

Yeah I imagine my partner and I will eventually get some half masks since wildfire season is quickly becoming "summer, sometimes starting in spring"

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Mr. Pardiggle posted:

Hi everyone, where are the links to the good KN-95/N-95 masks? They were like a buck a pop or something. I know I can’t trust Amazon because they apparently mix in good product with counterfeit.


If you're not opposed to masking up with what you have and hitting your local hardware store, they don't use the same supply chain as Amazon and you should be able to be confident that they have good masks. Bonafide masks as posted by Jaxyon is a great option for online shopping.

quote:

Turn off your monitor - see that? you are all my pets.

:catstare:

Salt Fish
Sep 11, 2003

Cybernetic Crumb

Professor Beetus posted:

Last time this came up it was pointed out that those findings from NIOSH were disputed? Did that recently change? Either way I still think going with the best protection you can is advisable and everyone is coming from a different place. If I lived in Alabama I'd probably be rocking a half mask with p100 every time I stepped outside.

Ah, there we go.

That does not dispute the text I quoted. The CDC is saying that if you need source control in a surgical setting that you shouldn't use an exhalation valve. Fine. You wouldn't use a cloth mask or gaiter for that either, and the text I quoted puts a valve above those but below a valveless N95 disposable respirator.

My understanding is that cloth masks don't filter your breath nearly an all, but stop droplet spray from having a ballistic trajectory into other people's mucus membranes. Exhalation valves do the same thing, there is no path in a straight line out of a half mask.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!
If your personal risk assessment and situation is such that you opt for a p100, wouldn't you also want some strong eye protection? I thought that one significant issue was that you can actually catch covid by eye contact. Maybe that science has changed. Posting at work so don't have an opportunity to dig into it

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
Jesus, how many people itt wear the full elasto masks?

Never seen a single one in my area that takes masking pretty seriously, and never in any of my travels around our region throughout the pandemic.

nexous
Jan 14, 2003

I just want to be pure
I wear a half mask, and my risk is already low. Why wouldn't you want the best protection available, thats cheaper, cleaner and more comfortable than pretty much any disposable mask?

Are you afraid of people laughing at you for taking a pandemic seriously?

The only negative comments I have received regarding the respirator are from liberals telling me to take it off since I'm vaxxed and dont need a mask.

A lot of positive comments from anti-mask folks who say "now thats a mask that actually works" or something.

nexous fucked around with this message at 18:53 on Sep 29, 2021

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

How are u posted:

Jesus, how many people itt wear the full elasto masks?

Never seen a single one in my area that takes masking pretty seriously, and never in any of my travels around our region throughout the pandemic.


How are u posted:

Are the p100s the full-on Bane-style cover your whole head and face respirators?

If so I would have no idea why people wear them, I've literally never seen a single person in one this entire pandemic.

I feel like you should explore why you felt the need to post on this twice per page.

poll plane variant
Jan 12, 2021

by sebmojo

How are u posted:

Jesus, how many people itt wear the full elasto masks?

Never seen a single one in my area that takes masking pretty seriously, and never in any of my travels around our region throughout the pandemic.

You may not be seeing them because your local area takes masking pretty seriously

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Fritz the Horse posted:

If your personal risk assessment and situation is such that you opt for a p100, wouldn't you also want some strong eye protection? I thought that one significant issue was that you can actually catch covid by eye contact. Maybe that science has changed. Posting at work so don't have an opportunity to dig into it

For a lot of situations yeah, but it doesn't seem recommended with COVID. There's lots of goggles you can get for scenarios where you need it like heavy smoke or working in the Deadly Fumes Factory. It's pretty commonly chosen to be left optional by people because half masks are cheaper and lighter than the full face ones

How are u posted:

Jesus, how many people itt wear the full elasto masks?

Never seen a single one in my area that takes masking pretty seriously, and never in any of my travels around our region throughout the pandemic.

I don't, I'm just aware of them because it's always handy to know the highest level of personal protection for a situation just in case

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Salt Fish posted:

That does not dispute the text I quoted. The CDC is saying that if you need source control in a surgical setting that you shouldn't use an exhalation valve. Fine. You wouldn't use a cloth mask or gaiter for that either, and the text I quoted puts a valve above those but below a valveless N95 disposable respirator.

My understanding is that cloth masks don't filter your breath nearly an all, but stop droplet spray from having a ballistic trajectory into other people's mucus membranes. Exhalation valves do the same thing, there is no path in a straight line out of a half mask.

Oh yeah, my bad, I was saying that agreed with your assessment based on that text, sorry if it wasn't more clear.

poll plane variant posted:

You may not be seeing them because your local area takes masking pretty seriously

Yeah, exactly. I feel completely at ease in an n95 not only because vaxxed but also because masking compliance most places I go seems to be about 100% aside from a few nose dickers. BTW I hate that phrase for being a perfect description and also incredibly cringe. :negative:

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


I wear it during bad fires, using chemicals while woodworking, finishing plastic parts. It's a good tool to have

But N95 day to day, because if my kid gets covid, it sure as poo poo ain't gonna be from me

\/\/ I live in rural Canada and I see other human beings maybe a couple times a month. My chances of exposure are pretty much my spouse and kid, maybe an errant mink that escaped a farm somehow.

GonadTheBallbarian fucked around with this message at 21:47 on Sep 29, 2021

nexous
Jan 14, 2003

I just want to be pure

GonadTheBallbarian posted:

But N95 day to day, because if my kid gets covid, it sure as poo poo ain't gonna be from me

I respect this, but if you live in the same house as a child, and you don't wear your mask 24/7, its moot.

Your best chance of protecting them, is protecting yourself.

buglord
Jul 31, 2010

Cheating at a raffle? I sentence you to 1 year in jail! No! Two years! Three! Four! Five years! Ah! Ah! Ah! Ah!

Buglord

Jaxyon posted:

lol if you're not wearing one of these to do go get your curbside pickup grocery runs



https://bonafidemasks.com/Powecom-kn-95/

Thanks champ!

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

poll plane variant posted:

You may not be seeing them because your local area takes masking pretty seriously

That's a fair point, I consider myself lucky that my region is as good as it is about mask compliance, vaccination uptake, and just a lack of lovely chuds in general.

poll plane variant
Jan 12, 2021

by sebmojo
https://twitter.com/BrundinPatrik/status/1306410355002937344
https://twitter.com/TrendsNeuro/status/1319332536095563776

More lurking Parkinson's stuff. Remember the monkey study? I wish I knew more about this stuff, and if we see it in other post-viral syndromes.

https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1373203001163227139?s=20

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Thanks for sharing, good stuff to keep an eye one, but as always

quote:

(interpret carefully)

Use it in your own risk assessment if you want; I don't want parkinsons on top of covid, diabetes, and whatever the hell else that might come my way, so I'm going to keep on my abundance of caution kick. But definitely looking out for more of these studies to see if these results can be replicated or if it's a correlation rather than causation.

e: yup, my thanks for sharing was 100% sincere. I guess I'll just point out that outside of blow zone (probably rip) and usnews I'm not really that much of an rear end in a top hat, and I do want everyone here to do their best to keep themselves safe from the ongoing pandemic.

Professor Beetus fucked around with this message at 19:16 on Sep 29, 2021

poll plane variant
Jan 12, 2021

by sebmojo

Professor Beetus posted:

Thanks for sharing, good stuff to keep an eye one, but as always

Use it in your own risk assessment if you want; I don't want parkinsons on top of covid, diabetes, and whatever the hell else that might come my way, so I'm going to keep on my abundance of caution kick. But definitely looking out for more of these studies to see if these results can be replicated or if it's a correlation rather than causation.

Yeah I kind of see something like this and think "oh yeah, well, you give billions of people a disease over and over and everything happens" but it echoed the "airborne monkey dementia" so well I figured it was worth posting.

Thorn Wishes Talon
Oct 18, 2014

by Fluffdaddy
It looks like Delta cases peaked about a month ago, and have been decreasing for the past ten days or so.



Deaths also seem to have peaked, and will probably start to decrease very soon.



These are good signs, and reasons for optimism.

poll plane variant
Jan 12, 2021

by sebmojo

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

It looks like Delta cases peaked about a month ago, and have been decreasing for the past ten days or so.



Deaths also seem to have peaked, and will probably start to decrease very soon.



These are good signs, and reasons for optimism.

Unless we do something differently there is no reason we won't end up right back here in a month. These things come in waves, but they do come. It doesn't really just go away but people always want to act like "this time it's gone for good" which gets us complacent and right back here!

virtualboyCOLOR
Dec 22, 2004

poll plane variant posted:

Unless we do something differently there is no reason we won't end up right back here in a month. These things come in waves, but they do come. It doesn't really just go away but people always want to act like "this time it's gone for good" which gets us complacent and right back here!

Exactly. Even in the graphs you can see dips that stretch for a few weeks then shoot back up. If we were to compare this current wave to last year’s, there may be a slight decline through October that shoots up like a rocket starting in November.

Optimism in the face of a brutal reality is a road that leads to disappointment. Unless there has been a significant change in vaccine percentages (above 80% at a minimum) and NPIs there is no reason to assume any change from last year.

virtualboyCOLOR fucked around with this message at 20:25 on Sep 29, 2021

Thorn Wishes Talon
Oct 18, 2014

by Fluffdaddy

poll plane variant posted:

Unless we do something differently there is no reason we won't end up right back here in a month. These things come in waves, but they do come. It doesn't really just go away but people always want to act like "this time it's gone for good" which gets us complacent and right back here!

You're right. On the other hand, an argument can be made that the more people Covid "burns through" the fewer will be left who will be vulnerable to it. That, and the gradual increase in vaccination rates, mean that at some point we're going to develop a high amount of population-level immunity to it. We may actually be close to that. We'll find out in a few months, during the holiday season and its aftermath.

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nexous
Jan 14, 2003

I just want to be pure

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

You're right. On the other hand, an argument can be made that the more people Covid "burns through" the fewer will be left who will be vulnerable to it. That, and the gradual increase in vaccination rates, mean that at some point we're going to develop a high amount of population-level immunity to it. We may actually be close to that. We'll find out in a few months, during the holiday season and its aftermath.

Except getting covid doesn't exactly make you immune. Just like getting a vaccine doesn't make you immune.

https://mynbc15.com/news/local/some-unvaccinated-alabamians-contracting-covid-19-two-or-three-times

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