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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:The Chinese military on mainland China is closer than these flights over international waters were, and the flights weren’t heading towards Taiwan, so I’m not sure how this is saber rattling? Because they know exactly where the adz is and deliberately went through it.
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Oct 5, 2021 18:42
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I feel like if the Taiwanese say "China is saber-rattling and acting more aggressive than usual" then they are probably the people most likely to actually know what that is and looks like, and I feel comfortable taking them at their word. Armchair generals, and all that.
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Oct 5, 2021 18:52
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:The Chinese military on mainland China is closer than these flights over international waters were, and the flights weren’t heading towards Taiwan, so I’m not sure how this is saber rattling? 1) They're knowingly going into Taiwan's ADIZ, and going into it and back without going toward the actual island, clearly calculated to be seen and understood but also not be an actual direct threat. Otherwise why wouldn't they just fly over their own territory (Taiwan, of course, being a part of the PRC I'm told!) 2) there's a Taiwanese military facility over in the area they're going, a small garrison of ~500 people on an island, the approach of which is enough to be seen as threatening while also not being an outright overture towards war. 3) The number of aircraft sent is literally a couple (three?) record numbers each day one after the other, which happens to take place a) in the week both the ROC and PRC have their National Days, b) when US, UK, Japan, NZ, Australia, Netherlands, and later Vietnam and Singapore, i.e. almost every nation with a Pacific navy, is having join maneuvers from 10/4 to the next few weeks. It's obvious saber rattling, just as the US/UK/Japan et al maneuvers are saber rattling. If you truly feel that both aren't at all saber rattling then maybe you have a leg to stand on, but I'm guessing that isn't the case.
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Oct 5, 2021 19:37
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How are u posted:I feel like if the Taiwanese say "China is saber-rattling and acting more aggressive than usual" then they are probably the people most likely to actually know what that is and looks like, and I feel comfortable taking them at their word. That's fair. But I think it's also fair to realize their own claim that they are part of the mainland government.
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Oct 5, 2021 20:04
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Cpt_Obvious posted:That's fair. But I think it's also fair to realize their own claim that they are part of the mainland government. What do their own claims have to do with anything?
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Oct 5, 2021 20:06
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Cpt_Obvious posted:That's fair. But I think it's also fair to realize their own claim that they are part of the mainland government. At this point, Taiwan has to hold on to that stupid charade because they otherwise face the consequences of declaring independence. Taiwan is already a pariah nation that is tolerated because of its economic productivity and its "one China" shenanigans. The state of affairs would get even worse if they tried to get the world to acknowledge them as a separate country because you just play deeper into the PRC's "renegade province" narrative.
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Oct 5, 2021 20:08
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Raenir Salazar posted:What do their own claims have to do with anything? We should listen to the democratically elected Taiwanese government's opinion on whether they are part of China.
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Oct 5, 2021 20:09
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They don't claim to be part of the mainland government.
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Oct 5, 2021 20:32
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I think calling Taiwan a "pariah state" is a bit much. That's what people call North Korea, Afghanistan under the Taliban in the 90s, the Burmese military junta, etc.
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Oct 5, 2021 20:34
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According to wikipedia, the proper term is "rump state".
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Oct 5, 2021 20:36
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Cpt_Obvious posted:We should listen to the democratically elected Taiwanese government's opinion on whether they are part of China. You seem to be being really obtuse here, the democratically elected government would probably very much prefer not to be a part of China; but the geopolitical reality is that unilateral independence would hold consequences, namely being military invaded. This has been explained to you a bunch of times.
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Oct 5, 2021 20:40
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Alchenar posted:They don't claim to be part of the mainland government. The ROC is a mainland government tho, which Taiwan is a part of.
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Oct 5, 2021 20:42
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How are u posted:I think calling Taiwan a "pariah state" is a bit much. That's what people call North Korea, Afghanistan under the Taliban in the 90s, the Burmese military junta, etc. Clarste posted:According to wikipedia, the proper term is "rump state". Fair point. I just feel that only have formal diplomatic relations with 15 states and having to rely on unofficial channels for dealing with most of the rest of the world is not a great state of affairs and it sadly only gets worse if Taiwan tries to get the world to acknowledge reality. And not to get pedantic, but I think more states have formal diplomatic relations with North Korea or Burma than they do with Taiwan.
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Oct 5, 2021 20:46
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Cpt_Obvious posted:The ROC is a mainland government tho, which Taiwan is a part of. De jure, but not de facto. Taiwan is an entity that absolutely no longer has much of anything to do with the government Chiang-Kai-Shek was in charge of in the 40's fighting Japan and culturally has little to do with China; things can exist on paper that has nothing to do with reality. Like how China claims to be democratic but doesn't have free elections. Eric Cantonese posted:Fair point. I just feel that only have formal diplomatic relations with 15 states and having to rely on unofficial channels for dealing with most of the rest of the world is not a great state of affairs and it sadly only gets worse if Taiwan tries to get the world to acknowledge reality. Up until 1979~ or so, most of the world did have relations with the ROC, the ROC didn't build nukes or invade someone or anything like that; the world followed the US's lead in switching their recognition and diplomatic relations from ROC to the PRC; and as the PRC got economically stronger and wealthier gained the ability to apply pressure in both international organizations and diplomatically to force nations to keep things that way.
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Oct 5, 2021 20:47
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Raenir Salazar posted:De jure, but not de facto. Taiwan is an entity that absolutely no longer has much of anything to do with the government Chiang-Kai-Shek was in charge of in the 40's fighting Japan and culturally has little to do with China; things can exist on paper that has nothing to do with reality. Like how China claims to be democratic but doesn't have free elections. lol. I see the level of discourse we are operating on here.
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Oct 5, 2021 21:13
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I don't know much bout the topic. But heres a cool map.
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Oct 5, 2021 21:16
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Tei posted:I don't know much bout the topic. But heres a cool map. I think the only really important take away from that map is the claims over the various islands and area in the south china seas which would be another reason to not unilaterally renounce all of their claims at once because even as an island other islands relatively near to them are useful; and their claims would carry less weight if they weren't claiming to be "China"; this pales in comparison to the fact they would be invaded if they were to declare independence though.
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Oct 5, 2021 21:19
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Tei posted:I don't know much bout the topic. But heres a cool map. Decades of one party KMT dictatorship led to a lot of dumb stuff.
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Oct 5, 2021 21:22
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It does lead to the possibility of a ROC reconquista that would leave a rump PRC existing in a half dozen slices of land beyond the 1911 borders.
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Oct 5, 2021 21:25
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Perhaps the rest of the world would take them more seriously if they relaxed their claim to Outer Mongolia.
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Oct 5, 2021 21:38
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Shot: https://twitter.com/noonanjo/status/1445395870682386436?s=20 Chaser: 
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Oct 5, 2021 21:45
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Insurgency is a really big ask for a urbanized population. Maybe Taiwan is hardcore commited to resisting the perfidious communists but they'll have to be willing to give up literally everything about their lives, security and safety of their families to engage in that. Easy for a white American to suggest it
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Oct 5, 2021 21:52
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Ron Paul Atreides posted:Insurgency is a really big ask for a urbanized population. Maybe Taiwan is hardcore commited to resisting the perfidious communists but they'll have to be willing to give up literally everything about their lives, security and safety of their families to engage in that. Why say it outright when you can meme?
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Oct 5, 2021 21:53
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Perhaps the rest of the world would take them more seriously if they relaxed their claim to Outer Mongolia. I don't think you can credibly say to know who does or not not take Taiwan's concerns seriously and for why; but overwhelmingly in much of the West the developing consensus seems to be people do take Taiwan's security concerns very seriously, or else there wouldn't be newspaper articles like the one that prompted this discussion.
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Oct 5, 2021 21:55
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Isn't it just people fundamentally not understanding what happened in HK hyping up Taiwan because they, mistakenly, think it's a similar situation?
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Oct 5, 2021 21:57
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Raenir Salazar posted:I don't think you can credibly say to know who does or not not take Taiwan's concerns seriously and for why; but overwhelmingly in much of the West the developing consensus seems to be people do take Taiwan's security concerns very seriously, or else there wouldn't be newspaper articles like the one that prompted this discussion. I think we can safely say that countries like Mongolia would not be happy if the UN recognized the sovereignty of the ROC.
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Oct 5, 2021 21:59
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I have a hot take maybe the Taiwanese do not want to be directly ruled by Beijing and that should be respected.
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Oct 5, 2021 22:06
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Solaris 2.0 posted:I have a hot take maybe the Taiwanese do not want to be directly ruled by Beijing and that should be respected. It seems plausible that it is not-good to be a minority ethnic socio-political group under the rule of Beijing.
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Oct 5, 2021 22:17
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Solaris 2.0 posted:I have a hot take maybe the Taiwanese do not want to be directly ruled by Beijing and that should be respected. then we should hope the US abandons any influence campaign to get them to declare independence
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Oct 5, 2021 22:18
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I think we can safely say that countries like Mongolia would not be happy if the UN recognized the sovereignty of the ROC. No one is discussing the ROC gaining sovereignty over anyone; we're discussing the nation (nation-states are not 1:1 with countries with territorial control) of Taiwan being allowed to be an independent country without its sovereignty and territorial integrity currently consisting of the territory actually under its de facto control being threatened by the PRC. Ron Paul Atreides posted:then we should hope the US abandons any influence campaign to get them to declare independence The US's position is that there should be no unilateral changes to the situation, so mission accomplished?
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Oct 5, 2021 22:20
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Raenir Salazar posted:No one is discussing the ROC gaining sovereignty over anyone; we're discussing the nation (nation-states are not 1:1 with countries with territorial control) of Taiwan being allowed to be an independent country without its sovereignty and territorial integrity currently consisting of the territory actually under its de facto control being threatened by the PRC. If Taiwan declaring independence would result in the PRC invading and taking over, then the PRC already has de facto control over Taiwan.
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Oct 5, 2021 22:22
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Ron Paul Atreides posted:then we should hope the US abandons any influence campaign to get them to declare independence I’m really tired of idiotic posts like this that pretend that a population of millions can have no agency over their own future. Seriously have you ever talked to an actual Taiwanese person? Done any actual reading about the country, it’s history, and it’s people? Or do you just gulp down CCP propaganda at face value?
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Oct 5, 2021 22:28
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Cpt_Obvious posted:If Taiwan declaring independence would result in the PRC invading and taking over, then the PRC already has de facto control over Taiwan. No that's not how that works. They have influence that they are exerting through the threat of using their Hard Power to maintain the status quo but they do not actually militarily control any part of Taiwan, cannot currently station troops or operate from any part of Taiwan to advance their regional interests without being shot at; and being able to do so is their long term goal by whatever means is the most expedient and least costly. They do not have de facto control over Taiwan, they have at best a sort of hybrid de jure control and heavy influence and you do not seem to understand what words actually mean.
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Oct 5, 2021 22:31
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Tei posted:I don't know much bout the topic. But heres a cool map. why are the two colors in the key all but indistinguishable. how can you be that bad at making a map.
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Oct 5, 2021 22:31
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Raenir Salazar posted:No that's not how that works. They have influence that they are exerting through the threat of using their Hard Power to maintain the status quo but they do not actually militarily control any part of Taiwan, cannot currently station troops or operate from any part of Taiwan to advance their regional interests without being shot at; and being able to do so is their long term goal by whatever means is the most expedient and least costly. Oh poo poo, did Taiwan fire on those PLA airplanes flying too close?
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Oct 5, 2021 22:36
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Solaris 2.0 posted:I’m really tired of idiotic posts like this that pretend that a population of millions can have no agency over their own future. I have yeah, there's a significant split over a how to keep proceeding with a lot of people fine with the current relationship and fully aware of what a declaration would trigger. I'm also well aware of significant funding and lobbying campaigns from the US, and the track record the US has on using the kinds of situations to foment conflicts. You don't speak for Taiwan anymore than I do, and I'm saying let them decide without directly supporting one narrative. We transparently are at the moment. my position is consistent everywhere; I want to avoid WW3 at all costs That seems to be a minority opinion on these forums sometimes, because apparently awareness of what this would start is me 'swallowing CCP propaganda'. Take a look at US history since the cold war started and you'll understand why my laser focus is on US manipulations of tensions. US is present everywhere, nudging events in certain directions and always towards the worst outcomes. I'll repeat that over and over until it starts registering. Ron Paul Atreides fucked around with this message at 22:44 on Oct 5, 2021 |
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Oct 5, 2021 22:40
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Ron Paul Atreides posted:I have yeah, there's a significant split over a https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Taiwanese_presidential_election Seems pretty clear cut what the Taiwanese people want to me.
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Oct 5, 2021 22:44
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Oh poo poo, did Taiwan fire on those PLA airplanes flying too close? Do you doubt this would happen if they did? Like not as a one off designed to test readiness but just decided to fly bombers over Teipei? I'm not sure why you aren't understanding the argument.
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Oct 5, 2021 22:45
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Solaris 2.0 posted:https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Taiwanese_presidential_election o7 then let's get the carrier groups underway eh
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Oct 5, 2021 22:45
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Ron Paul Atreides posted:o7 then let's get the carrier groups underway eh Or, and hear me out, the Chinese could not invade the country that doesn’t want their rule?
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Oct 5, 2021 22:47
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