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QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

It's almost as though we need a nationalized grid of nuclear, solar, and wind power

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mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Nuclear energy too cheap to measure? Where have I heard this before?

Honestly I'm not sure how that makes any sense considering how expensive it actually is.

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

Phanatic posted:

They're also fueled with HEU as with ship nuclear systems.

VideoGameVet posted:

So proliferation concerns.

My understanding is that they will be fueled with High-Assay Low Enriched Uranium, specifically due to proliferation concerns.

https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-high-assay-low-enriched-uranium-haleu

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019
Nuclear is a terrible investment vehicle. It frequently goes 100% over budget and is delayed by a years to decades. When you finally get it built there's intermittent sources to compete with so you face price uncertainty that may be affected by politics. In the decade(s) it takes you to build it other technologies may have been developed or matured and been rapidly deployed changing the fundamental assumptions of your business model. You don't know how cheap solar or wind is in decades or how much of it there is or what batteries cost or if new types of storage have been developed or if it's now cheap enough to store in hydrogen or methanol or if suddenly geothermal or something else takes off. All of this uncertainty is priced in.

Conversely you can build a wind or solar park in 6 months. Construction is simple and straightforward and when it's built you know you can always beat competitors on price because you have no fuel costs.

The market isn't going to solve this because nuclear is a capital intensive high risk investment with low yield so it'll never attract enough capital on its own for rapid build out. Nationalizing the grid and power companies seems politically improbable but sure do that if possible. We need reactors that can be rapidly built and deployed for nuclear to be succesful and we don't have that

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


I look at the AGC mitigation need: 10+ TW installed excess capacity for [magical sequestration technology here] by 2050. I happen to think that figure is optimistically lean by a whole integer factor.

Install every windmill, solar panel, and nuclear plant possible. Our remaining remotely-optimistic concentration paths already count on seriously intense sequestration programs, and IPCC report by IPCC report, we learn how terrifyingly inadequately dire the last report was.

Potato Salad fucked around with this message at 07:29 on Oct 26, 2021

radmonger
Jun 6, 2011

mobby_6kl posted:

Nuclear energy too cheap to measure? Where have I heard this before?

Honestly I'm not sure how that makes any sense considering how expensive it actually is.

You heard it from engineers who didn’t understand, and had no practical experience of, economics.

_Actually is_ means _under the rules of investment finance_. As someone says above, nuclear is a bad capital investment vehicle. It is a means of taking concentrated capital and creating widely distributed returns which you have no ability to collect. Which is another way of saying ‘make a loss’.

The fictional nation of Wakanda, with its Vibranium, was written in the sixties partly taking inspiration from contemporary Ghana and the new wonder-metal, aluminium. Ghana had both deposits of bauxite and rivers suitable for generating hydroelectricity. The bankers of the world were happy to fund either, but not both. At the engineering level, it makes sense to make aluminium using cheap hydroelectricity, reducing shipping costs by refining locally. But at the economic level, it doesn’t. You don’t get your money back from someone who has no need to do business with you any more.

The chief advantage of most forms of renewables is little to do with engineering, but that they don’t have that problem. Fundamentally the customer pays for their own solar panel, either directly or via some form of simple indirection.

For nuclear to prosper, the required innovation would be mostly financial or political, not a matter of engineering.

Capt.Whorebags
Jan 10, 2005

radmonger posted:

For nuclear to prosper, the required innovation would be mostly financial or political, not a matter of engineering.

Is there any feasible scenario where nuclear generated power becomes substantially cheaper, whilst maintaining/improving actual (not regulatory) safety standards? Say, 50% cheaper?

I don't have the knowledge to decipher all the new GenIV/V/+ pebble bed, thorium cycle etc etc. Is there anything in the less than 20 year pipeline where this happens?

Heck Yes! Loam!
Nov 15, 2004

a rich, friable soil containing a relatively equal mixture of sand and silt and a somewhat smaller proportion of clay.
The idea that we can't build nuclear plants because of economic losses is the primary reason we are doomed.

Using economics as the guide to climate change will lead us into the dirt.

Economics doesn't properly value the costs of not building nuclear plants.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Capt.Whorebags posted:

Is there any feasible scenario where nuclear generated power becomes substantially cheaper, whilst maintaining/improving actual (not regulatory) safety standards? Say, 50% cheaper?

I don't have the knowledge to decipher all the new GenIV/V/+ pebble bed, thorium cycle etc etc. Is there anything in the less than 20 year pipeline where this happens?

That's the trick: The power generation portion is incredibly cheap. Nuclear Plants are not expensive to operate, only expensive to build and decommission.

Aethernet
Jan 28, 2009

This is the Captain...

Our glorious political masters have, in their wisdom, decided to form an alliance with a rag-tag bunch of freedom fighters right when the Federation has us at a tactical disadvantage. Unsurprisingly, this has resulted in the Feds firing on our vessels...

Damn you Huxley!

Grimey Drawer

Heck Yes! Loam! posted:

The idea that we can't build nuclear plants because of economic losses is the primary reason we are doomed.

Using economics as the guide to climate change will lead us into the dirt.

Economics doesn't properly value the costs of not building nuclear plants.

Economics absolutely does value it through pricing externalities like GHG emissions. Governments don't then apply those prices to the economy properly; in the UK the Government estimates the cost of carbon necessary to achieve Net Zero is £240/tonne, while the price it applies to emissions via its trading scheme is closer to £50-70/tonne.

radmonger
Jun 6, 2011

Capt.Whorebags posted:

Is there any feasible scenario where nuclear generated power becomes substantially cheaper, whilst maintaining/improving actual (not regulatory) safety standards? Say, 50% cheaper?

I don't have the knowledge to decipher all the new GenIV/V/+ pebble bed, thorium cycle etc etc. Is there anything in the less than 20 year pipeline where this happens?

All of those are engineering ideas, none of which would address the actual problem; the inherent cheapness of the generated electricity, and the consequent lack of a market-based means of recovering the high fixed costs of construction. Most would make it worse, e.g. thorium would presumably further reduce fuel and security costs.

French electricity, almost entirely nuclear, costs 0.17 Euros per kilowatt, about half that of Germany. This is already too low for the companies involved to make expected profits; Only a fool would invest in French rather than German power companies; any further price reductions would completely bankrupt them.

Any successful change would be politically driven; at most some engineering fix might help with public perception. Something like reclassifying spent nuclear fuel as a financial asset, rather than a liability, would probably be along the right lines.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Germany is pretty uniquely expensive though, and most EU is around French level regardless of how much nuclear they have going.

I guess I'm still not following your economic argument. How can the low fuel & operation cost be possibly bad? I mean if that's the problem, why not employ personal butlers for the janitors on site or something? Or use champagne to cool the used fuel?

The margin between the market rates and your cost of generation is what pays off the initial investments so you want the costs as low as possible (and marker rates as high as possible). A few plants aren't going to bring down the maker prices significantly at all.

Your previous post and this makes much more sense to me:

Owling Howl posted:

Nuclear is a terrible investment vehicle. It frequently goes 100% over budget and is delayed by a years to decades. When you finally get it built there's intermittent sources to compete with so you face price uncertainty that may be affected by politics. In the decade(s) it takes you to build it other technologies may have been developed or matured and been rapidly deployed changing the fundamental assumptions of your business model. You don't know how cheap solar or wind is in decades or how much of it there is or what batteries cost or if new types of storage have been developed or if it's now cheap enough to store in hydrogen or methanol or if suddenly geothermal or something else takes off. All of this uncertainty is priced in.

Conversely you can build a wind or solar park in 6 months. Construction is simple and straightforward and when it's built you know you can always beat competitors on price because you have no fuel costs.
...

The engineering breakthrough needed would have to be on making the initial construction much more simpler, faster, and cheaper. Some of the challenge is red tape but there's also just inherently a lot of safety-critical poo poo that's very expensive to do right.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug
I mean, to go back to the economics: One thing Renewables has done already is actually resulted in power prices dropping into the negative during people renewable generation, so how does that figure into it?

Phanatic
Mar 13, 2007

Please don't forget that I am an extremely racist idiot who also has terrible opinions about the Culture series.

mobby_6kl posted:

The engineering breakthrough needed would have to be on making the initial construction much more simpler, faster, and cheaper.

It is not engineering difficulties that make initial construction so expensive, and there are not engineering solutions to that problem. I mean, okay, small modular reactors, nice, but as long as the design certification and site licensing procedure is the same it's not going to fix anything.

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.
There's already been a fair amount of discussion about how nuclear power is hamstrung by countless environmental studies and safety surveys that are conducted as if no one has ever built a fission power plant before. But there's also all the money required to be set aside for future hypothetical radiation disaster remediation - almost $50 billion in the United States. No other power source needs to set aside money like this, or even consider cleaning up after themselves, and that's one of the many reasons that they artificially appear to be so cheap. Certainly coal is not so economical if producers have to pay to recover all the soot, radiation, and GHGs they emit into the atmosphere. The much maligned carbon taxes are one step to begin remediating this issue of externalized cost and risk.

It's similar to how the US Postal Service has been intentionally sabotaged by Republicans who forced USPS to pre-fund retirement benefits for all its employees, making it appear to operate in the red. One suggestion that has been made is to invest five percent of this fund annually in nuclear plant upgrades, expansions, and subsidies to less profitable nuclear power plants.

Kaal fucked around with this message at 16:11 on Oct 26, 2021

radmonger
Jun 6, 2011

mobby_6kl posted:


I guess I'm still not following your economic argument. How can the low fuel & operation cost be possibly bad? I mean if that's the problem, why not employ personal butlers for the janitors on site or something? Or use champagne to cool the used fuel?



In a commodity market, you can’t just choose to charge a higher price; people will buy from your competitors and you won’t sell anything. Any engineering practices that reduces costs also reduces your competitors costs, leading to a price war and collapsing profits all round. To cut the complex game-theoretical modeling short, you can only charge a given margin on your inputs, expressed as a percentage. Uranium costs ~130 dollars per kilo, so the marginal price of a kilos worth of nuclear electricity is some small multiple of that,

Thorium is 30 dollars per kilo, so if the plants were similarly efficient, the same percentage markup gets you a lot less actual money.

A few plants won’t bring down the price significantly; a large number would. So the economically optimal thing is to ensure the cost to build plants are as high as you can get away with; this is much more profitable than supplying electricity cheaply. So, since the failures of the seventies, all existing nuclear companies have successfully migrated to this business model.

The same economics applies to fighter planes, subways, train tracks and so on. The French were perhaps the slowest to learn that lesson, but they seem to have got there in the end.

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Kaal posted:

There's already been a fair amount of discussion about how nuclear power is hamstrung by countless environmental studies and safety surveys that are conducted as if no one has ever built a fission power plant before. But there's also all the money required to be set aside for future hypothetical radiation disaster remediation - almost $50 billion in the United States. No other power source needs to set aside money like this, or even consider cleaning up after themselves, and that's one of the many reasons that they artificially appear to be so cheap. Certainly coal is not so economical if producers have to pay to recover all the soot, radiation, and GHGs they emit into the atmosphere. The much maligned carbon taxes are one step to begin remediating this issue of externalized cost and risk.

It's similar to how the US Postal Service has been intentionally sabotaged by Republicans who forced USPS to pre-fund retirement benefits for all its employees, making it appear to operate in the red. One suggestion that has been made is to invest five percent of this fund annually in nuclear plant upgrades, expansions, and subsidies to less profitable nuclear power plants.

well ... that may not be what's driving costs up.

“But many of the US' nuclear plants were in fact built around the same design, with obvious site-specific aspects like different foundation needs. The researchers track each of the designs used separately, and they calculate a "learning rate"—the drop in cost that's associated with each successful completion of a plant based on that design. If things went as expected, the learning rate should be positive, with each sequential plant costing less. Instead, it's -115 percent.
...
But those were far from the only costs. They cite a worker survey that indicated that about a quarter of the unproductive labor time came because the workers were waiting for either tools or materials to become available. In a lot of other cases, construction procedures were changed in the middle of the build, leading to confusion and delays. Finally, there was the general decrease in performance noted above. All told, problems that reduced the construction efficiency contributed nearly 70 percent to the increased costs.”

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/11/why-are-nuclear-plants-so-expensive-safetys-only-part-of-the-story/

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

So lack of experience and redundancies in the workforce and among suppliers which is probably what drives cost overruns in most large scale infrastructure projects. Chronic cost overruns in the nuclear sector is only one problem though.

AreWeDrunkYet
Jul 8, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 3 days!

mobby_6kl posted:

The engineering breakthrough needed would have to be on making the initial construction much more simpler, faster, and cheaper. Some of the challenge is red tape but there's also just inherently a lot of safety-critical poo poo that's very expensive to do right.

I'm not suggesting we cut back on the safety factors in the construction process, but something seems to have changed in the last few decades with how large construction projects are handled that has made them far less efficient. Not even talking about nuclear plants, most any large public project that involves a large amount of concrete like airports or highways just can't get done on time and on cost, and when they do it's still massively more expensive than it used to be. It's not like we've regressed on the technology involved, is it just a failure of project management or what? Are relatively small scale or modular projects like wind turbines more efficient in practice because as a society we've gotten worse at building big things?

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Owling Howl posted:

So lack of experience and redundancies in the workforce and among suppliers which is probably what drives cost overruns in most large scale infrastructure projects. Chronic cost overruns in the nuclear sector is only one problem though.

I think this is a national issue not just for nuclear but for any large projects. There's so much grift in these things, profits to be made with delay, for example California's High Speed Rail mess.

I blew my chances to run a major game studio in 2007 because after several flights and interviews, and on the Friday when they had flown myself and my future wife up to find a place to live, I had a meeting with the (smart) CFO and remarked that their web-game projects were probabily delayed because of the "time and materials" payment to the contractors they had gone with. I suggested milestone-based payments in the future.

My guess is the guy I reported to, with all of 2 years of experience at Yahoo Games before going to this Seattle based studio, realized that if they hired me he might just get shitcanned because of this. So on Monday they withdrew the offer.

Currently my little company is producing a word game and a visual novel and because payments to the development companies are all based on events happening, the teams are responsive.

VideoGameVet fucked around with this message at 18:56 on Oct 26, 2021

Capt.Whorebags
Jan 10, 2005

radmonger posted:

All of those are engineering ideas, none of which would address the actual problem; the inherent cheapness of the generated electricity, and the consequent lack of a market-based means of recovering the high fixed costs of construction. Most would make it worse, e.g. thorium would presumably further reduce fuel and security costs.

But isn't this the same economic model that solar and wind has? All the costs are all upfront capital build costs, marginal cost per MWh to generate is almost zero. Sure solar build costs aren't the same as nuclear but neither is output. A solar farm with 100MW nameplate still costs hundreds of millions to build, and has a much lower nameplate output and capacity factor than a modern nuclear plant.

Sounds like my original question has been answered, which is that developments in nuclear tend to be towards inherent safety features, addressing proliferation concerns, or opening up alternative fuel cycles. None of which appear to be addressing build costs. I was hoping that the "small modular reactors" that are talked about would result in lower overall capital costs.

I agree that solving climate change shouldn't be left in the hands of the market, or economists, but in the absence of some large government mandated effort, the only way it will be addressed is if someone can make a buck out of it.

Kaal posted:

There's already been a fair amount of discussion about how nuclear power is hamstrung by countless environmental studies and safety surveys that are conducted as if no one has ever built a fission power plant before. But there's also all the money required to be set aside for future hypothetical radiation disaster remediation - almost $50 billion in the United States. No other power source needs to set aside money like this, or even consider cleaning up after themselves, and that's one of the many reasons that they artificially appear to be so cheap. Certainly coal is not so economical if producers have to pay to recover all the soot, radiation, and GHGs they emit into the atmosphere. The much maligned carbon taxes are one step to begin remediating this issue of externalized cost and risk.

Would be great if there was a similar indemnity clause that operates for vaccine development in that the government acknowledges the public benefit of a heavily regulated system and provides a common insurance pool against rare but highly costly future negative outcomes.

Capt.Whorebags fucked around with this message at 21:52 on Oct 26, 2021

karthun
Nov 16, 2006

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Capt.Whorebags posted:

Would be great if there was a similar indemnity clause that operates for vaccine development in that the government acknowledges the public benefit of a heavily regulated system and provides a common insurance pool against rare but highly costly future negative outcomes.

Isn't that what the CICP and VICP are?

Capt.Whorebags
Jan 10, 2005

karthun posted:

Isn't that what the CICP and VICP are?

No idea, never heard of them (I'm not American).

e: but if individual companies still have to provide a guarantee against future highly unlikely but very costly outcomes, then surely this is something that could be collectivised (ruh-roh, communism!).

Capt.Whorebags fucked around with this message at 22:44 on Oct 26, 2021

radmonger
Jun 6, 2011

Capt.Whorebags posted:

But isn't this the same economic model that solar and wind has? All the costs are all upfront capital build costs, marginal cost per MWh to generate is almost zero. Sure solar build costs aren't the same as nuclear but neither is output. A solar farm with 100MW nameplate still costs hundreds of millions to build, and has a much lower nameplate output and capacity factor than a modern nuclear plant.


All the technology development for solar costs go into how to manufacture better solar panels (and a few other bits of auxiliary equipment) . These are sold as items either directly to consumers, or to operating companies that do simple bundling. If prices drop in future, that matters not to the manufacturer; they already got their money. So investment in reducing costs is a viable strategy to the one actor that is in the position to do so.

In other words, solar has the same economics as car or computer manufacturing; the customer is continually getting a better product at an ever-lower price; the manufacturer still gets high profits from the expanding volume of sales.

This is why the only private money considering investing in nuclear is looking at small scale modular reactors that can be built on an assembly line and carried on the back of a truck or barge. Engineering concerns say, all things being equal, these will be much less efficient, and probably somewhat more dangerous, than larger reactors. But selling such reactors does have at least the potential to be a viable business model without requiring political or regulatory change.

Or at least, companies like Seaborg technologies think so. If their product ever does materialize, no doubt it will be reassuringly expensive.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Capt.Whorebags posted:

Is there any feasible scenario where nuclear generated power becomes substantially cheaper, whilst maintaining/improving actual (not regulatory) safety standards? Say, 50% cheaper?

I don't have the knowledge to decipher all the new GenIV/V/+ pebble bed, thorium cycle etc etc. Is there anything in the less than 20 year pipeline where this happens?

Do what South Korea did: standardise on 1-2 reactor types, build a fuckton of them in a row staggered by a few years so construction crews gain experience and move on to do the same thing again but better and cheaper the day they finish the previous project.

Kalman
Jan 17, 2010

karthun posted:

Isn't that what the CICP and VICP are?

Yeah, that’s exactly the function they serve.

Capt.Whorebags
Jan 10, 2005

Kalman posted:

Yeah, that’s exactly the function they serve.

Ah, poor wording on my part... I knew there was an indemnity program for vaccines in the US and was saying something similar should exist for energy.

Phanatic
Mar 13, 2007

Please don't forget that I am an extremely racist idiot who also has terrible opinions about the Culture series.

Capt.Whorebags posted:

Ah, poor wording on my part... I knew there was an indemnity program for vaccines in the US and was saying something similar should exist for energy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price%E2%80%93Anderson_Nuclear_Industries_Indemnity_Act

Smeef
Aug 15, 2003

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!



Pillbug
I looked back a few pages, and it doesn't look like this has been covered in this thread. Sorry if it has, though.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/16/business/energy-environment/green-energy-fortescue-andrew-forrest.html

tldr: NYTimes fawning over Aussie iron ore billionaire/dickhead Twiggy's forays into hydrogen energy.

Ignoring that the article reads like an advertorial, what is this thread's take on hydrogen as a viable energy source? I've got some colleagues who thought the article was so impressive and cool, and while I have some scattered understanding of hydrogen from dropping in this thread and the climate change thread over the years, I can't really pull it all together in an articulate way.

Am I also totally missing something about how dumb it is to brag about the environmental friendliness of hydrogen-powered trucks... to load and haul iron ore?

Edit: Iron ore not coal. Tripped over my shoelaces in my maiden post in this thread!

Smeef fucked around with this message at 14:26 on Oct 27, 2021

Aethernet
Jan 28, 2009

This is the Captain...

Our glorious political masters have, in their wisdom, decided to form an alliance with a rag-tag bunch of freedom fighters right when the Federation has us at a tactical disadvantage. Unsurprisingly, this has resulted in the Feds firing on our vessels...

Damn you Huxley!

Grimey Drawer
Can't read the article, but Fortescue mines iron ore, not coal. It makes sense for him to invest in green hydrogen production, as at least one low carbon steel route uses hydrogen to reduce iron oxides. Hydrogen is energy dense enough to run big mining rigs too, reducing mining emissions. Obviously using such rigs for coal is silly.

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

New York TImes posted:

Can a Carbon-Emitting Iron Ore Tycoon Save the Planet?

By Damien Cave

CLOUDBREAK, Australia — Standing at the foot of a diesel truck as large as a dinosaur, Andrew Forrest juggled the microphone and then delivered the message that he knew the miners might see as a threat to their jobs and identities.

It was time to go green.

As the sun set over the hills of the first mine that set him on a path to enormous wealth, he explained that Fortescue, the Australian company he founded, would no longer just extract and ship 180 million tons of iron ore, the raw material for steel. It would zero out its own carbon emissions and become a renewable energy powerhouse.

“Global warming, all of you know, is really serious, and it’s accelerating a lot quicker than anybody thought,” said Dr. Forrest, 59, delivering what sounded like a general’s pre-attack briefing. He told the troops — which is what he calls the workers, whom he tries to visit every few months as Fortescue’s chairman and largest shareholder — that everyone else, the government, the other big mining companies, just talked around the problem.

“What you’ll be doing,” he said, scanning the faces of miners and mechanics covered in engine oil, “will be stacks of what you’re best at, which is action. You guys are going to be at the forefront of turning the world green.”

He gave his speech two months ago in the Pilbara, Australia’s mineral heartland. A remote, “Mad Max” desert more associated with rust than recycling, it’s where Fortescue made $10.3 billion in profit last year by extracting iron ore and selling it mostly to Chinese steel makers. Along the way, the company burned through 700 million liters of diesel and released 2.2 million tons of greenhouse gases — more than some small countries.

But Dr. Forrest had come to the Cloudbreak mine to paint a cleaner portrait. He told the workers that when they reached their rocking chairs in retirement, they’d tell their grandchildren that they had helped change the world. Trying to make sure they would embrace the mission, he told them that climate innovation would save their jobs, and as proof, he promised to deliver hydrogen-fueled haul trucks next year followed by drills, trains and processing plants all running on renewable energy.

Many of the workers nodded. One tossed out a question: “Are we going to get any specialized training?”

“Yeah, you will,” Dr. Forrest said.

Turning promises into tangible results — that would be the tough part. His company employs 15,000 people and is worth more than $30 billion. He could lose it all if his plan to decarbonize by 2030 and diversify into energy goes wrong. He is essentially gambling with the stable mining company that has made him one of Australia’s richest men. He wants it to become a high-tech start-up producing five times more renewable energy than the Australian power grid and selling hydrogen to the world’s factories and mills.

His vision is built on the audacious idea that a maverick from a resource-rich corner of the Earth can do what has not been done — reform manufacturing, stymie Big Oil and help save us all from climate catastrophe. And he wants to do it with a hulking old industry that is usually vilified at climate conferences.

In many ways, the criticism makes sense: The iron and steel sector emits around 7 percent of the world’s carbon dioxide (more than all of the world’s cars). And unlike coal, it can’t be phased out unless we no longer want new appliances or buildings. Wrenching transformation is really the only option if international climate goals are to be met.

Dr. Forrest is either the most or least likely person to pull it off. He earned a Ph.D. in marine ecology two years ago, spurring a desire to do more on climate change, and he announced his crusade after the worst wildfires in Australia’s recorded history. But he’s no typical greenie. He talks more about freedom than carbon taxes. Climate activists were skeptical at first. Now they’re hoping he succeeds.

Michael E. Mann, a prominent American climate scientist who has long been a vocal critic of carbon-heavy companies that he calls “inactivists,” argues that cleaning up a major mining company like Fortescue would be hugely important for a few reasons. It would not only slash emissions. It would also show that it’s possible for even the biggest emitters to make money while improving the health of the planet.

“Such efforts are critical to addressing climate change in the window we have,” Dr. Mann said.

Dr. Forrest knows that the magnitude of the task means he might fail. But in part because of what he has already accomplished, he believes anything is possible — and he lives out that belief with a zeal he exhibits in relaxed moments, too. On his plane, during a tricky takeoff or when everyone needs an emotional lift, he stands in the aisle and sings along to his favorite song: Tom Petty’s “Runnin’ Down a Dream.”
‘It’s the Sound of the Future’

The search for climate salvation begins in northwestern Australia, in the rolling hills of the Pilbara, a region bigger than California that produces a third of the world’s iron ore. It’s a desert of quiet, relative emptiness with clusters of a few thousand people at mine sites marked by a cloud of reddish dust in the day and flashes of yellow lights at night.

On a drive around Solomon, Fortescue’s most productive mine, Dr. Forrest could barely contain his love for the Pilbara’s mix of natural beauty and human ingenuity.

“Stop looking at your screens,” he shouted at one point, gesturing out the bus window to make sure that the employees he had brought along from urban offices shared his enthusiasm. “Look at the scale of this.”

He called the tangle of belts and beams at the ore processing plant “a beautiful piece of kit.” He could easily imagine windmills and solar panels in the Pilbara. They would create the electricity needed to turn water into hydrogen, and that green hydrogen could travel the same routes as iron ore, gas or coal — fueling factories in the United States, steel mills in Europe and Fortescue’s own trucks and trains.

Better yet, Fortescue could use the green energy to power its own steel production.

That’s the dream he’s running down both in the Pilbara and nearly 1,000 miles away, at a pair of labs in Perth, where he had already put together teams to build the infrastructure he could see in his mind.

The most groundbreaking developments have come from a small room at the University of Western Australia, Dr. Forrest’s alma mater, where the company’s electrochemists have found a new route to what’s known as green iron and steel.

Nearly 90 percent of the carbon released by the steel-making process comes from reducing it to “pig iron” in a blast furnace or smelter powered by fossil fuels. Fortescue’s engineers have built a miniature mill that they said could do the same thing with electrodes and a pressurized brew of metals and other materials. Sitting on a counter, it resembled a water heater crossed with an espresso machine.

At least one other company, Boston Metal, which counts Bill Gates as an investor, has found a way to do something similar. But Fortescue’s scientists say they’ve figured out a process that works at lower temperatures (no hotter than a cup of coffee), allowing for easy on and off cycles with intermittent, renewable energy.

The group’s design, secret until now, recently received provisional patent protection.

That burst of innovation — and the pace of improvement at Fortescue and elsewhere — is one of many factors bolstering Dr. Forrest’s optimism. He believes Fortescue can take advantage of technologies that have come down in price (around solar and batteries, for example) while pushing green development further, faster, by building equipment that the company can test and use in its own operations.

“Andrew has three things going for him,” said Malcolm Turnbull, a former Australian prime minister, who has known Dr. Forrest for 25 years and recently teamed up with him to support green hydrogen. “One, he’s passionately committed to the energy transformation. Two, he’s got enormous financial resources. More than a few people can tick those boxes, but the third box is that he is the founder and chairman of a company that has engineering and construction in its DNA.”

Dr. Forrest studied commerce at university and worked as a stockbroker in the 1980s, but at Fortescue, he put a priority on the innovation of things, from covered conveyor belts to driverless trucks. Similarly, since forming Fortescue Future Industries, a subsidiary funded with 10 percent of the parent company’s profits, Dr. Forrest has hired dozens of scientists and invested in their designs.

Green steel, formed entirely with renewable energy, is the Fortescue moonshot.

“It will be a winner-take-all market,” said Saul Griffith, an electrification expert (and MacArthur fellow) who started his career at an Australian steel mill. “You can’t spend enough in the race to have the first electrochemistry pathway to steel.”

But scaling up is the problem not just there; it’s the challenge with everything Dr. Forrest is trying to accomplish, including Fortescue’s most immediate hurdle — transportation. Half the company’s emissions come from its diesel-guzzling fleet.

At a giant garage in an industrial area called Hazelmere near Perth’s airport, around 100 experts in engines and energy are trying to eliminate all that carbon by turning a mining company into a clean, green version of Caterpillar or John Deere.

When I visited, Dr. Forrest had asked a few new employees and people who work with his charity, the Minderoo Foundation, to come along. Everyone was especially excited to see the same thing: the hydrogen-fueled haul truck. When it pulled into the midday sun, painted blue and white, it looked far too clean but as imposing as any other truck, with a few alterations.

Jim Herring, the head of green industry for Fortescue Future Industries and a former mine manager who had been in charge of deploying driverless trucks, pointed to a hydrogen cylinder and a wall of batteries placed where the diesel fuel tank had been removed.

“The team literally built this thing in 100 days,” he said.

Using available equipment, the truck could run for only about 20 minutes. They need it to run for 20 hours.

“Our goal,” Mr. Herring added, “is to have this truck deployed, running on the mine site in 23 months — well, we have 22˝ months now — which is about five years sooner than everyone else.”

Dr. Forrest encouraged me to climb aboard. Inside the cab, I met Sean Kelly. He was the driver, an electrician with an accent as thick as his mustache. His nickname: Mad Dog. He told me that he was thrilled to be part of something new.

“I’ve been in mining for 20 years,” he said. “Nothing has really changed until now.”

As he drove around, a computer screen showed power distribution for the battery and the fuel cell and the revolutions per minute for the motor. A warning section had the word “flame” — hydrogen burns clear, so an infrared camera with an alarm system had been added.

It was a small sign of the technical challenges ahead. Hydrogen is more explosive than diesel and difficult to store whether it’s formed by splitting water with renewable electricity (that’s green hydrogen) or by separating hydrogen from coal and gas (brown, gray and blue hydrogen), which emits a lot of carbon.

Mad Dog turned left and revved the engine as we approached Dr. Forrest. The monstrous truck, requiring a ladder to get over the tires, hummed like a server farm and released only steam in puffs of white.

“It’s the sound of the future,” Dr. Forrest said. Holding a microphone, he seemed eager to hug anyone who came near him.

“Silence is so exciting,” he told me. A few minutes later, as he leaned out of a BMW’s back seat, his fervor only seemed to increase.

“It’s like being there at the beginning of the industrial revolution,” he shouted out the window. “Someday you’ll look back and say, ‘I was there.’”
‘Confessions of a Carbon Emitter’

The posters went up in every camp. Along with flies and dust, the workers building Fortescue’s 160-mile railway were greeted each morning with the photo of a man in a suit standing on the tracks above a question: “Ever wanted to flatten a banker?”

It was not a call to violence from Dr. Forrest for his tired crews but rather a vote of confidence. He had hoped to bring Fortescue’s ore to market by connecting with the railway and port of a large competitor, BHP, but in 2006, the company refused, forcing him to scramble for permits and land rights. A few months later, one financial analyst was so certain the venture would fail that he said he’d be happy to be chained to the tracks along Fortescue’s proposed route “because I know I will not be killed by a train.”

Dr. Forrest put his quote at the top of the poster.

“When I go into a fight, I need a Goliath,” he told me. “It’s about steeling my team.”

In Australian business circles, Dr. Forrest is known for being a salesman of the impossible, sometimes prone to hyperbole but often proving the skeptics wrong.

The way he tells it, a taste for risk runs in the family.

His great-uncle John Forrest was one of the first surveyors to cross Australia’s inhospitable interior in 1869, mostly on foot. He went on to become the first premier for the state of Western Australia, where he is still celebrated for pushing through a public works project that pumped water 500 miles inland, uphill, to the state’s newly developed gold mines.

The story appears in a book that Fortescue published for employees, under a heading: “in the blood.” Dr. Forrest retold the tale in his first speech announcing his plan to overhaul Fortescue, given in January as part of a public lecture series under the title “Confessions of a Carbon Emitter.”

“The logistics were formidable then,” he said in the speech. And it’s the same today, he added, with naysayers insisting that going green is too daunting or costly.

It requires a thick hide, as he puts it, arguing that he developed exactly that at the Forrest homestead of Minderoo. The pastoral station is vast and majestic, set along the Ashburton River, but it was far from luxurious when Andrew was born in 1961. His mother, Judy, learned to fly a plane to muster sheep. His father said little and demanded a lot.

By the time he went to boarding school in Perth, where the Forrest name seemed to shout from street signs, he was scrawny but quick with a punch. Twiggy became his nickname. He also stuttered — until he joined the high school debating team.

“I thought that if I can do that, I can get over my stutter,” he said. “It was like a blood sport.”

The same might be said of mining. When he started Fortescue in 2003, he had already tried and failed once, being pushed out of Anaconda Nickel, a company he had spent nearly a decade trying to build.

The battle took a lot out of Dr. Forrest and tarnished his name. Disputes over deals made their way to court, and in one case, a state judge suggested that he had been untruthful. Critics and creditors said he was all bluster, not enough expertise.

His supporters interpreted the Anaconda affair as an example of Australia’s egalitarian tendency to cut down “tall poppies” — those who do not conform. Anaconda’s Murrin Murrin mine project went on to become one of the most successful nickel and cobalt operations in the world, and Dr. Forrest still believes he was right about the company’s promise. What he got wrong was whom to trust.

“Anaconda taught him the importance of keeping control,” said Nicola Forrest, his wife of 30 years.

Fortescue proved to be a bigger challenge than Anaconda. The new company relied on leases that the industry leaders (BHP and Rio Tinto) overlooked and spent more than $100 million on exploration in its first two years, running up debt. At Cloudbreak and its sister site, Christmas Creek, Fortescue drilled nearly 9,000 holes.

As soon as the company had the geology confirmed and secured customers in China — where steel mills were hungry for new sources of iron ore — it moved quickly to production. From around 2006 to 2008, the company built a new mine capable of producing 45 million tons of iron ore per year, along with the railway connected to Port Hedland, where the ore is gathered and loaded onto ships.

“They have a track record of building a very large-scale project in a very short period of time,” said Camille Simeon, investment director for Australian equities at Abrdn, which is not a Fortescue shareholder. “They’ve been incredibly nimble.”

After shuttling visitors on a two-day tour of the mines, Dr. Forrest met his wife off the coast of Exmouth on his 191-foot superyacht, Pangaea. He had turned it into an oceanic research vessel, though the dark wood and display cases inside (from the previous owner) created a vibe that Mrs. Forrest called “‘Jumanji’ mixed with the Museum of Natural History.”

Over a dinner of steaks from Harvey Beef, a company the Forrests’ private investment firm bought a few years ago, he and Mrs. Forrest told the full story of the Fortescue train line — a turning point for the company — and tried to unlock the puzzle of motivation. Shaking his head, wincing at times, Dr. Forrest seemed uncertain. Did he really need an enemy? Was he still a David fighting Goliaths now that he was worth $20 billion?

“People want solutions,” said Mrs. Forrest, a daughter of farmers who plays a large role in the family’s philanthropy efforts. “It’s all fine to talk doom and gloom.”

She turned to her husband. “You’re talking about finding the way through it,” she said. “You’re helping people see the long way, the outcome.”

The next morning, Dr. Forrest appeared in a white bathrobe, sounding more certain. He pulled out a blue hardcover book — his Ph.D. thesis from 2019 at the University of Western Australia: “Pelagic Ecology and Solutions for a Troubled Ocean.”

He told me that he first started thinking about climate change five years ago, when he stepped back from day-to-day operations at Fortescue and started his Ph.D. He had always loved the ocean, but he became saddened by his own research showing that sharks and other marine life were disrupted because their environment lacked oxygen.

“Fish populations were moving to find air to breathe, not to eat,” he said. “And that’s global warming.”

The discovery pushed him to do more. He recalled something his mother had told him: “Enjoy your life, but make sure you’re as useful as you can possibly be.”

He had already pledged to give away the majority of his fortune. What he dreams of now seems to be a moral or ethical version of the entrepreneurial process.

“It’s scalable goodness,” he said.
‘If You Are Responsible, You Must Act’

Inside a cavernous warehouse in Port Hedland where a mechanical unloader dumps 15,000 tons of iron ore out of passing train cars every hour, Fortescue’s transformation is already starting. In the thunderous noise and heat, Stephen Dansie, the manager of maintenance, said his team was preparing for a switch to green energy.

“Whether it’s battery, ammonia or hydrogen, we’re going to have to change our maintenance strategies,” Mr. Dansie said. “We’re reviewing all of it.”

Dr. Forrest is asking a lot of his company’s employees, not to mention investors, officials and allies in the fight to get climate change under control. Even those who hope he succeeds question if he and his team will stay committed.

“If they spend a billion dollars over the next few years trying to get this thing off the ground and it doesn't work, are they going to pull the plug?” asked Dan Gocher, climate director at the Australasian Center for Corporate Responsibility.

Dr. Forrest is aware of the pressure and the doubt. When I asked whom he needed to convince to make sure his dream became reality, he answered quickly: “Everyone.”

Miners, it turned out, were the easiest ones to persuade. At the sites I visited with Dr. Forrest, I interviewed dozens of workers and contractors. Nearly all expressed relief: Finally, they said, they could participate in a solution to climate change, getting past tired culture war politics.

At Cloudbreak, William Webster, 27, the diesel mechanic who asked about training, said he was looking forward to seeing how the hydrogen trucks worked.

At the other mines and at Port Hedland, there was even more excitement.

“It’s revolutionary,” said Nick Sanders, 27, an auto electrician at Solomon. “It puts us ahead of every other mining company.”

In interviews, Dr. Forrest said he was still working on the Australian government. The country’s conservative prime minister, Scott Morrison, has resisted committing to ambitious emissions targets despite pressure from the United States and a visit to Cloudbreak, where miners told him to get on board with going green.

Dr. Forrest also complained about the Labor government in his own state of Western Australia, which had yet to create a legal framework for developing renewable energy on pastoral land.

“Industry is really leading here, and the government is coming along behind,” said Madeline Taylor, a senior lecturer in environmental law at Macquarie University in Sydney. “It’s the cart pulling the horse.”

(Mark McGowan, the premier of Western Australia, declined to be interviewed. Mr. Morrison’s office did not respond to questions sent by email.)

On the way to Minderoo for an off-site meeting with Fortescue Future Industries’ executives and board members, Dr. Forrest admitted that the stress of waiting for allies wore him down.

“Nobody knows what a high-wire act it really is,” he said on the plane. “You make a bet” — he threw down his hand as if tossing cash on a table — “and you feel it. I worry about it. First you have a few people, then you have a few thousand.”

Many of those elevated to share the challenge first proved their worth in familiar territory. Julie Shuttleworth, FFI’s chief executive, was the general manager at Cloudbreak and then Solomon before serving as the deputy chief executive of Fortescue. She also describes herself as a nature lover who hates seeing a single tree chopped down.

At the Minderoo “think tank,” she and the rest of the group had a lot to discuss. The company had already set an ambitious goal of supplying over 15 million tonnes (16.5 million tons) of green hydrogen annually by 2030, more than the entire world currently produces. Investors and climate activists were eager to see progress.

To get going, FFI expects to spend $400 million to $600 million in the fiscal year that started in July, and in one of the first meetings, people online and in the room flipped through a lengthy document listing potential investments. In a little over six months, they had identified 130 renewable energy opportunities in around 60 countries, including 30 they thought could be pursued before 2031.

In the meeting, Ms. Shuttleworth highlighted projects that could be developed as soon as possible. About half were overseas, half closer to home.

“What I’m hearing,” Dr. Forrest said, “is that Australia is not a total disaster.”

He’d soon be proved right: FFI recently announced plans to build hydrogen production plants in Queensland and New South Wales, with the latter benefiting from a new state strategy of tax breaks and grants for green hydrogen.

Outside politics, the uncertainties looked harder to manage. Dr. Forrest pressed the team to get manufacturing costs down by 40 percent. He also emphasized the need to rally support before and during the United Nations’ COP26 climate conference in Scotland next month, to keep the natural gas industry from gaining more of an upper hand.

“We have to get to a point where everyone realizes blue hydrogen is a con,” Dr. Forrest said. “It’s no better than fossil fuels.”

Eventually, the group landed on specific goals. By Dec. 15, Mr. Herring agreed to have a road map for decarbonizing trains, ships and mining equipment so they would be ready to operate in 2022. As a group, they also finalized plans on their top 10 solar and wind projects. Five had no clear title but needed to get done.

After the day’s last meeting, walking near a room filled with photos of his great-uncle, Dr. Forrest said he needed to find a pathway to wealth for the company. Novelty becomes legacy only when others buy in and benefit.

“If it’s not profitable, we’ll have no followers,” he said. “We need to hold ourselves up as an example.”

The sun was setting over the Ashburton River. It was nearly time for dinner — on a bridge built a century ago out of concrete and steel.

A long, narrow table had been set up in the middle, with views up and down the river. After glasses of Spanish cava, Dr. Forrest announced that they were all part of another first — the first time dinner had been served on the bridge.

As plates of paella appeared, a Fortescue tradition commenced, with speeches from everyone. None of the toasts cited temperature rise or biodiversity or drought. Mostly, the group seemed energized by engineering and adventure.

Michael Dolan, a hydrogen scientist, spoke about a recent whirlwind world tour with Dr. Forrest, including a lunch with Bill Gates after a long night with too many drinks. Gordon Cowe, FFI’s director of development and projects, said he had returned to Fortescue after many years away, working for the fossil fuel industry, because “it’s time for a reversal.”

Dr. Forrest spoke last. As he looked from one length of the bridge to another, it suddenly became clear that he had chosen the location for its narrative potential. Pointing to the far end, behind him, he said that side represented the resistance to their climate change plans — it was the old way of doing things. In his view, those who came from there had no cause for shame.

But, he said, it was time to move on. He pointed forward, toward what he saw as humanity’s promising future, and said: “That side is where we must go.”

In between was Fortescue.

“If you are responsible, you must act,” Dr. Forrest said.

A pair of galahs, loud pink-bellied cockatoos native to Australia, flew overhead, providing a natural chorus. Everyone at the table fell silent. But one seat was empty.

Ms. Shuttleworth hadn’t made it to the end of the evening. Halfway through, she stood to leave. Fortescue Future Industries — the bridge, in Dr. Forrest’s metaphor — just signed a deal for a wind farm in Argentina. She needed to thank local officials for agreeing to be a part of the future that Fortescue envisioned.

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.
For what it's worth, it seems like a pretty legit article to me. The company is developing worthwhile technologies, the approach is multi-faceted and feasible, the owner appears personally and professionally invested, and the goals and methods appear to be in line with climate science. This quote spoke volumes to me, “We have to get to a point where everyone realizes blue hydrogen is a con,” Dr. Forrest said. “It’s no better than fossil fuels.” If he understands that, and is pursuing green hydrogen via the copious availability of co-located Australian solar and wind (which is also intended to run his iron mines), then it's a project with real legs under it. It of course should be recognized that this sort of pursuit is technologically difficult, and that a lot of the green hydrogen projects have stalled out, but one particular aspect of this endeavor is that a lot of these big trucks can't operate via battery alone (at least not currently). Getting such GHG-heavy equipment to be hydrogen-powered would be a real advancement in terms of the climate crisis. And of course it should be pointed out that Australia is near the hub of hydrogen vehicle development - Japan. There's a real opportunity for companies in the two countries to work together on developing a functional hydrogen infrastructure for heavy industries such as trucking, mining, shipping, and aviation. The crux of the matter will be doing so with green hydrogen rather than blue (much less grey, brown, or black).

Sextro
Aug 23, 2014

I gotta say, that is one of the more positive articles I've seen in this thread.

Capt.Whorebags
Jan 10, 2005

Andrew Forrest (first time I've ever seen him referred to as Dr Forrest) is from a Western Australian wealth & politics dynasty. Being into resource extraction he has a spotty record on taxation and interactions with Indigenous people. On the latter, he does put a lot into Indigenous work initiatives and philanthropy but has been accused of divide & conquer techniques when it comes to getting endorsement from traditional owners.

The last 5 years or so has seen him move into philanthropy in a big way (along with his wife) and recently he has appeared to be genuine on moving to a sustainable mining and power industry, of course through the prism of continued wealth generation.

As said, one of the biggest positive outcomes is calling blue hydrogen complete bullshit, just another ploy to continue extracting fossil fuels.

Hydrogen is touted as making a big impact to the energy landscape in Australia, probably because it can be seen as a genuine storage medium for actual green energy by environmentalists; and as a new market for natural gas expansion by the cretins that have made their money from fossil fuels.

I'm curious to see how the hydrogen generation technology copes with intermittent power and can ramp up and down with solar/wind output. I don't know enough about industrial scale electrolysis, including any potentially limited resources such as catalysts, anodes/cathodes etc to see how big this can ramp up. But if it does show promise, then shipping liquified hydrogen could be a great way to export the abundance of clean energy resources (read: lots of sun soaked land) to high power users in Asia.

e: just had a quick look at wiki and he actually has a genuine Ph.D that he gained in 2019 after working for four years on a dissertation in marine science. I thought the Dr would be an honorary award like a lot of wealthy people.

Capt.Whorebags fucked around with this message at 21:30 on Oct 27, 2021

MomJeans420
Mar 19, 2007



AreWeDrunkYet posted:

I'm not suggesting we cut back on the safety factors in the construction process, but something seems to have changed in the last few decades with how large construction projects are handled that has made them far less efficient. Not even talking about nuclear plants, most any large public project that involves a large amount of concrete like airports or highways just can't get done on time and on cost, and when they do it's still massively more expensive than it used to be. It's not like we've regressed on the technology involved, is it just a failure of project management or what? Are relatively small scale or modular projects like wind turbines more efficient in practice because as a society we've gotten worse at building big things?

If you have some free time you can read the Bechtel report for the failed V.C. Summer units. It shows the problems with both large construction projects and the problems unique to building a new nuclear design. Take it with a grain of salt though as this is a report produced by an outside firm that didn't have access to all the relevant information AND it just so happens would be happy to come in and help you fix your messed up project.

Some problems in no particular order:
The issued design from engineering can't be constructed as designed so it must be modified. Kind of like the engineers at Audi who came up with ridiculous timing chain designs that face the firewall and are prone to failure, but those actually are serviceable just a pain in the rear end. I would have thought part of learning engineering would include learning how to design things so they can actually be built in the real world but apparently that's not the case.

The engineering was not complete when construction began.

Multiple companies in a consortium with commercial interests that aren't aligned, resulting in finger pointing when milestones/payments are missed.

General bureaucracy when minor changes needed to be made.

It was typically over an hour from when a worker arrived on site to when they actually started doing proper construction work, due to busing people around, overly long daily briefings, etc.

Difficulty in attracting skilled workers.

The modular design of the AP-1000 was supposed to make it easier to construct different versions of the design but actually resulted in a plant that is more complicated to build.

and I'm sure a ton more I'm forgetting.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Capt.Whorebags posted:

Andrew Forrest (first time I've ever seen him referred to as Dr Forrest) is from a Western Australian wealth & politics dynasty. Being into resource extraction he has a spotty record on taxation and interactions with Indigenous people. On the latter, he does put a lot into Indigenous work initiatives and philanthropy but has been accused of divide & conquer techniques when it comes to getting endorsement from traditional owners.

The last 5 years or so has seen him move into philanthropy in a big way (along with his wife) and recently he has appeared to be genuine on moving to a sustainable mining and power industry, of course through the prism of continued wealth generation.

As said, one of the biggest positive outcomes is calling blue hydrogen complete bullshit, just another ploy to continue extracting fossil fuels.

Hydrogen is touted as making a big impact to the energy landscape in Australia, probably because it can be seen as a genuine storage medium for actual green energy by environmentalists; and as a new market for natural gas expansion by the cretins that have made their money from fossil fuels.

I'm curious to see how the hydrogen generation technology copes with intermittent power and can ramp up and down with solar/wind output. I don't know enough about industrial scale electrolysis, including any potentially limited resources such as catalysts, anodes/cathodes etc to see how big this can ramp up. But if it does show promise, then shipping liquified hydrogen could be a great way to export the abundance of clean energy resources (read: lots of sun soaked land) to high power users in Asia.

e: just had a quick look at wiki and he actually has a genuine Ph.D that he gained in 2019 after working for four years on a dissertation in marine science. I thought the Dr would be an honorary award like a lot of wealthy people.

Yeah, I was initially cynical about Forrest speaking out on this. For context of those outside Australia, in the past few weeks NewsCorp has pivoted to supporting Net Zero by 2050, in a transparent attempt to support the conservative government we have in their piss poor attempt at a "plan" to do so. So it looked like another mining industry figure joining in on that.

But he has been transparent in calling their plans for blue hydrogen and carbon capture as being cons doomed to fail in significantly reducing emissions. While I don't agree with everything he says or does, he seems to be someone who genuinely believes that climate change is real, we need to reduce emissions to reduce the impact we are having, and also is willing to take a stance of what the long-term consequences will be of not doing so, rather than just looking at the next financial year.

In Australia where the mining industry holds the government hostage we absolutely need loud voices like his.

SA-Anon
Sep 15, 2019

MomJeans420 posted:

If you have some free time you can read the Bechtel report for the failed V.C. Summer units. It shows the problems with both large construction projects and the problems unique to building a new nuclear design. Take it with a grain of salt though as this is a report produced by an outside firm that didn't have access to all the relevant information AND it just so happens would be happy to come in and help you fix your messed up project.

Some problems in no particular order:
The issued design from engineering can't be constructed as designed so it must be modified. Kind of like the engineers at Audi who came up with ridiculous timing chain designs that face the firewall and are prone to failure, but those actually are serviceable just a pain in the rear end. I would have thought part of learning engineering would include learning how to design things so they can actually be built in the real world but apparently that's not the case.

The engineering was not complete when construction began.

Multiple companies in a consortium with commercial interests that aren't aligned, resulting in finger pointing when milestones/payments are missed.

General bureaucracy when minor changes needed to be made.

It was typically over an hour from when a worker arrived on site to when they actually started doing proper construction work, due to busing people around, overly long daily briefings, etc.

Difficulty in attracting skilled workers.

The modular design of the AP-1000 was supposed to make it easier to construct different versions of the design but actually resulted in a plant that is more complicated to build.

and I'm sure a ton more I'm forgetting.

I'm going to play devil's advocate here... Neither of this is new nor surprising and it is not an issue limited to Nuclear power plants.
Most large (e.g. several thousand personnel) Construction projects operate similarly.

There are certainly ways to improve things... but...
the issues you bring up are reoccuring historical ones.

Engineerng not complete?
This is normal in the Construction world. Construction is wanting to start as soon as permits and budget is secure. Because often the project you are building today was approved for the market conditions of yesterday.

Multiple companies in consortum, not in alignment?
While not desired, it often happens due to how contracts get written.

Beaucracy for changes...
In Nuclear power plant business, you typically need to have changes approved in advance prior to execution of field work. In other fields (petrochemical) you may be able to route the approval in parallel with the field work. On some commercial (plumbing) work I have seen changes not documented at all. Although it really depends on the scope and significance. For nuclear N-stamped systems, its per current design.

Hour for workers to start work?
This comes down to logistics, labor agreements, work permits, material etc.. Also depending on site security policies as well. There are multiple things that can affect this.

Attracting skilled workers?
How skilled? It's on project management to set the bar they desire, have on site training, as well as exercising discipline when needed. If they don't do either, well that is really on them now isn't it?

You also get people who want to work 40-50 hours vs those who want to work 50-60. Skilled labor has options and they can pick up and go home if they want. Construction industry in general, you're travelling around. Attrition is a fact of life.

Modules?
Yes, more poo poo gets crammed in on them. Also more restrictive tolerances. Same thing with skidded pieces of equipment. Same poo poo.

TLDR... Construction and Manufacturing are different animals.

SA-Anon fucked around with this message at 03:19 on Oct 28, 2021

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001

Capt.Whorebags posted:

e: just had a quick look at wiki and he actually has a genuine Ph.D that he gained in 2019 after working for four years on a dissertation in marine science. I thought the Dr would be an honorary award like a lot of wealthy people.

Just been skimming through his thesis and it is very, "Hey we are super loving up our oceans, and a lot of the half measures we use to stop it ain't doing poo poo". 100% not what I was expecting from a Australian mining billionaire. Solution is pretty business though, although it is what amounts to a tax on plastic.

https://research-repository.uwa.edu.au/en/publications/pelagic-ecology-and-solutions-for-a-troubled-ocean

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

We should pretty much ban single-use plastic, a move that some places have already made or are considering, but this isn't the thread for that discussion

iirc WA banned single-use plastic bags and that's like 1 step out of 100 needed

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VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

QuarkJets posted:

We should pretty much ban single-use plastic, a move that some places have already made or are considering, but this isn't the thread for that discussion

iirc WA banned single-use plastic bags and that's like 1 step out of 100 needed

Most of the plastic in the ocean is as a result of the fishing industry.

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