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Yinlock
Oct 22, 2008

Angry_Ed posted:

India Walton has nobody to blame but herself:
https://twitter.com/thehousered/sta...ingawful.com%2F

If leftism/progressivism is going to succeed we have to actually be different from what we're trying to replace instead of being duplicitous and pissing off our allies.

iirc she also threw up the old "cops are workers too" chestnut at one point which is always a giant red flag

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Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Peter Daou Zen posted:


idk where the original post is, but shout out to you for calling virginia p much right on the money

Sedisp
Jun 20, 2012


Solkanar512 posted:

Claiming that she only lost because a “dem lanyard fooled her” makes it pretty clear that Nix doesn’t believe that Brown is calling her own shots. They even say that the party itself is to blame. Blame lies with the person or group in change, and Nix clearly doesn’t believe it’s Brown.

If you don’t like it, take it up with Nix.

Nah this is bullshit. Lots of people listen to their advice and assume the party they're running with actually knows what they're talking about and trying to cast stating that believing a candidates missteps are due to bad advice as racist is just nonsense.

Killer robot
Sep 6, 2010

I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!
Pillbug

DeadlyMuffin posted:

I know the thread consensus seems to be that if only the Democrats were further left they'd do better electorally, but I have a hard time jiving that with what actually happens in elections.

Americans being, by an large, quite conservative is a better explanation. The two major parties are milquetoast centrists for the most part on one hand, and nativists on the other, and the natavists continue to win elections.

I think the US has a cultural problem. American culture devalues education and expertise. Until that changes, and "my ignorance is as good as your knowledge" stops ringing so true, I don't think we get out of this hole.

A lot of people who want change don't like to face the heavy lifting of making your beliefs more popular. It's really easy and self-affirming to assume most people will back your views with little resistance if you back them forcefully enough (and, therefore, failure of candidates who agree with you is either lack of resolve or powerful interests.) Sometimes it's even true! But other times it really isn't. It's like how M4A polls really well when people hear the name and fill in what they imagine, but it turns out a lot of them imagine "keep what you have now and get options to change to if you like." When you tell them they've gotta leap into the unknown and that it will take away their current plan and the new system will cost money, they get really risk-averse. And you've got to work to convince them that the new plan will be better and cost less. Which won't always be easy. Sure doesn't help that a lot of politicians are risk-averse themselves.

Is doing that worth it? Sure! But it's /work/ by all means. And there's a hundred other topics like it.

CubanMissile
Apr 22, 2003

Of Hulks and Spider-Men

Solkanar512 posted:

It’s really something that you’re convinced women of color have no agency of their own. Calling her a puppet just to make sick burns against “the libs” is really loving gross.

Do you normally imply people are racist out of the blue like this? Because lol.

porfiria
Dec 10, 2008

by Modern Video Games
The Democrats can't mount a consistent meaningful opposition to GOP candidates because the two parties have broadly similar objectives. The Republicans want to stack up a few more bodies but in the end the goal is to keep the spigots on until everything blows up. So elections come down to deranged metaphysical debates about the origin of sin or whatever.

LionArcher
Mar 29, 2010


pthighs posted:

Has anyone in this thread considered that maybe people as a whole don't want the things delivered in this tweet (minus legal cannabis, everybody under 45 wants that)? That the Democrats in Virginia lost in part because they delivered those things? That Trump as a whole delivered many of the things Virginia voters want, but did so in a way that was too offensive and declasse? You can't blame the electoral college or demographic grouping for this - a segment of land had a vote for a person and chose one over the other.

As a Seattleite in a fairly well off neighborhood, let me tell you first hand that all of our neighbors, with Black Lives Matters and In This House... signs spread throughout their yards, voted for a Republican (who switched to that party only after Trump was elected) for Seattle City Attorney, even though the Dem was a public defender, because the Dem has some aggressive tweets about defunding the police in her history. We're also going to elect Bruce Harrell as mayor, a Dem so corporatist and pro-police state it would make Pete Buttigieg blush, because we would rather have homeless people punted to poorer parts of town rather than consider what we might do to give them an alternative to their current situation.

It's taken as an article of religious faith in this thread that doing good things (as defined by basically everyone here, including me) for people will result in future electoral success. What if it doesn't? What if Americans don't want that? What the gently caress then?

There are many unknowns, but one thing I can guarantee you is that the outcome of the 2024 Presidential/Senate/House elections doesn't directly depend on what happens with the infrastructure bill(s). There's currently a greater than 50% chance Trump wins, and if people still feel bad about things in 2024, it will go up to a 90% chance.

Well that’s the rub. It’s here in these forums. Try actually talking about climate change realistically in d&d, and you get a prob. Point out to solve a lot of problems we can’t all own cars, or keep having kids at the rate of whatever the gently caress you want, and folks get mad and throw temper tantrum‘s, real quick.

Basically, the, “land freedom of the free attitude” turned all adults into this country into toddlers. “Don’t you tell me what to do!”

Your neighbors are relying on the police to make the icky things that they want to not think about go away. See they did good. They’ve earned doing whatever the gently caress they want. The poor (in their minds,) they haven’t. They were bad. They were lazy.


gently caress look at how people justify selfish behavior even here in these forums around COVID for god sakes.

There’s a scene in the show legion where the main hero who’s horrible has Convinced himself he’s a good person, and he keeps repeating that line. “I’m a good person”.

The truth is, that’s almost all of us, but we really aren’t.

(But that’s also because that concept of “good” in that sense is just Christian bullshit that has corrupted the left just as much as it corrupted the right, just in a different way.)


The good news is that we’re only 15 years away before things get really special, at most.


Things aren’t that bad….


Yet

LionArcher fucked around with this message at 09:37 on Nov 3, 2021

Neurolimal
Nov 3, 2012
My personal take:

1. Walton seems to have run weak campaign, in fairness likely due to her inexperience and freezing-out from a significant chunk of the local party. She managed to annoy two unions almost entirely on accident, and in general exuded a lack of professionalism and knowledge of what she was talking about, as such:

...

As well as falling for obvious normalization efforts of Brown as a valid candidate, such as the debate hug. This is to be expected from someone new to politics and running as an outsider, but was exacerbated by the heavily pro-Brown political apparatus providing little in the way of veteran handlers, I'd assume.

2. The fact that she was supposed to be the only candidate on the ballot likely depressed turnout among those that voted for her in the primary; she won the democrat primary, shes the only candidate, win by default, go home, right? Whereas Brown & his republican allies obviously did not have that complacency.

3. Despite her shortcomings, the fact of the matter is that she won the primary. She should be the mayor right now. That Brown can command a chokehold on the party despite clearly losing by the rules to which leftists are demanded to follow is a travesty of democracy and a damning indictment of leftist electoralism, and the fact that the majority of the local party will have gotten away with not endorsing their own candidate will have severe reprecussions for future leftist challengers against liberal incumbents. Sever any emotional ties you may have had for Walton as you wish, but this result will make future AOC's, future Cori Bush's, future Rashida Tlaib's, future Ilhan Omar's less likely.

Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 09:41 on Nov 3, 2021

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Angry_Ed posted:

India Walton has nobody to blame but herself:
https://twitter.com/thehousered/sta...ingawful.com%2F

If leftism/progressivism is going to succeed we have to actually be different from what we're trying to replace instead of being duplicitous and pissing off our allies.

And how!

https://twitter.com/thehousered/status/1455735146712289281?t=m_lO-o-Kl9sXXw2Reubikg&s=19

The only good socialists get murdered :negative:

Nix Panicus
Feb 25, 2007


Solkanar512 posted:

It’s really something that you’re convinced women of color have no agency of their own. Calling her a puppet just to make sick burns against “the libs” is really loving gross.

Do you think that happened before or after she got a veteran democrat consultant to help manage her campaign?

https://buffalonews.com/news/local/...70ceda4835.html

quote:

Walton, meanwhile, injected a new aura of professional campaigning by naming a veteran of New York City politics to manage her effort.

“I am thrilled to welcome Drisana Hughes to Team India,” Walton, winner of the June Democratic primary, said Monday. “Her wealth of experience in Democratic campaigning, her deep understanding of political organizing and her shining intelligence are exactly what this campaign needs to win in November with a strong mandate to build the safe, healthy Buffalo we all need and deserve.”

Hughes served as deputy campaign manager for Alvin Bragg’s successful Democratic primary for Manhattan district attorney earlier this year, and as organizing director for the unsuccessful mayoral campaign of New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer. In 2020, she was the Colorado Democratic Party's regional field director for Joe Biden's successful presidential effort.

https://twitter.com/drisanahughes/status/1455293501156085760

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

DeadlyMuffin posted:

It's mostly to own the libs. I think a lot of it also comes from folks without skin in the game.

I'm trans. In my lifetime there has been one party that has moved the needle on trans issues at all, and one that struggles to do the opposite. Watching people cheer the GOP winning elections makes me think that it's just a sports team to them, and it's fun to watch the rivals lose.

Totally. Time to vote Republican and give them a chance. That'll teach the Dems to go further next time!



I know the thread consensus seems to be that if only the Democrats were further left they'd do better electorally, but I have a hard time jiving that with what actually happens in elections.

Americans being, by an large, quite conservative is a better explanation. The two major parties are milquetoast centrists for the most part on one hand, and nativists on the other, and the natavists continue to win elections.

I think the US has a cultural problem. American culture devalues education and expertise. Until that changes, and "my ignorance is as good as your knowledge" stops ringing so true, I don't think we get out of this hole.

Are you arguing a Clintonite new Democrat supported by Bill Kristol is too left-wing? Who exactly do you want Democrats to run? Mitt Romney?

Also considering transphobia and bathroom bills were one of the issues the Youngkin campaign hammered on, you should probably think real hard about whether you want Democrats to move right to appeal to Republican voters and what that would mean.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Nix Panicus posted:

Do you think that happened before or after she got a veteran democrat consultant to help manage her campaign?

https://buffalonews.com/news/local/...70ceda4835.html

https://twitter.com/drisanahughes/status/1455293501156085760

eh, if a socialist has so little grounding in materialism that they think being anti-union is a good idea, then they're hosed regardless

BrainDance
May 8, 2007

Disco all night long!

Solkanar512 posted:

It’s really something that you’re convinced women of color have no agency of their own. Calling her a puppet just to make sick burns against “the libs” is really loving gross.

This is some borderline "noble savage" treatment of black people, that's what's "really loving gross."

What you're replying to is nearly word for word something that people on this forum have said about tons of other Dem politicians (mostly because, half the time it's true.) But suddenly, because of the target's race they are incapable of acting that way, they don't have the ability to be anything but whatever caricature you have in your head of them?

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010
this entire thread is DIRE

https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1455652069738692608

but especially:

https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1455657916724387855

Rochallor
Apr 23, 2010

ふっっっっっっっっっっっっck
The repeated and humiliating failures of running centrist Dems campaigning on nothing should really put to bed the idea that VBNMW is "harm reduction" in any meaningful way. If it inevitably leads to electing Republicans, withholding your vote or making a protest vote ought to be considered the harm reduction option, and Terry McAuliffe the accelerationist one.

Srice
Sep 11, 2011

Rochallor posted:

The repeated and humiliating failures of running centrist Dems campaigning on nothing should really put to bed the idea that VBNMW is "harm reduction" in any meaningful way. If it inevitably leads to electing Republicans, withholding your vote or making a protest vote ought to be considered the harm reduction option, and Terry McAuliffe the accelerationist one.

To McAuliffe's credit, he campaigned against Trump and it has been proven without a doubt that Trump will not be the next governor of Virginia.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Srice posted:

To McAuliffe's credit, he campaigned against Trump and it has been proven without a doubt that Trump will not be the next governor of Virginia.

pretty much.




DeadlyMuffin posted:

It's mostly to own the libs. I think a lot of it also comes from folks without skin in the game.

I'm trans. In my lifetime there has been one party that has moved the needle on trans issues at all, and one that struggles to do the opposite. Watching people cheer the GOP winning elections makes me think that it's just a sports team to them, and it's fun to watch the rivals lose.

Totally. Time to vote Republican and give them a chance. That'll teach the Dems to go further next time!



I know the thread consensus seems to be that if only the Democrats were further left they'd do better electorally, but I have a hard time jiving that with what actually happens in elections.

Americans being, by an large, quite conservative is a better explanation. The two major parties are milquetoast centrists for the most part on one hand, and nativists on the other, and the natavists continue to win elections.

I think the US has a cultural problem. American culture devalues education and expertise. Until that changes, and "my ignorance is as good as your knowledge" stops ringing so true, I don't think we get out of this hole.


i think it more depends what progressive issues work and what ones don't and obviously on individual canidates. i also think youngkin ran as a "moderate" while keeping a still unpopular trump away with stick. covid and schooling and the general "poo poo still isnt normal" also didnt help. i dont think the GOP will take the messages they need from this race thankfully but i also depends on what canidates win their primaries too. i feel ok about PA 2022 though. depends on other places obviously.

1. run on a positive message and on stuff you passed or want to pass

2. actually pass stuff.

3. get needles in arms faster.

4. cut down on the weird nerds running but also learn what policies to run on depending on what state.

5. unfuck the school issus and i don't mean the CRT poo poo. though also find better ways to midcate that poo poo too.

6. again actually pass poo poo.

i think we will possibly have "some advantage" in 22 because i doubt the GOP will rig their own race like they did in VA. PA will have a trumpist running as will others and as long as you run smarter then terry, you have a good shot.

Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 11:53 on Nov 3, 2021

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010
I feel like I’m being gaslit again. I don’t see how people can look at a constitution ignoring, big lying, COVID denying, insurrection supporting, fascist, bigoted and racist Republican Party and vote in a new R governor.

Maybe I’m the one that’s wrong and just doesn’t understand?

NomNomNom
Jul 20, 2008
Please Work Out
The virginia election was "think of the children" embodied. Parents are really stupid about their dear Braidens.

Rochallor
Apr 23, 2010

ふっっっっっっっっっっっっck

NomNomNom posted:

The virginia election was "think of the children" embodied. Parents are really stupid about their dear Braidens.

Lets go Braiden

Neurolimal
Nov 3, 2012

Murgos posted:

I feel like I’m being gaslit again. I don’t see how people can look at a constitution ignoring, big lying, COVID denying, insurrection supporting, fascist, bigoted and racist Republican Party and vote in a new R governor.

Maybe I’m the one that’s wrong and just doesn’t understand?

Even if they're unwilling to move left, democrats need to at least figure out how to guide the narrative. Youngkin basically made this The Scary Book Election, until Terry momentarily abandoned shadowboxing Trump to instead make it the McAuliffe Doesnt Want You To Have A Say In Your Kids' Education Election.

He didnt veto the insulin price cap, marijuana legalization, abolishing the death penalty, or community college assistance, so presumably he's cool with that stuff! And they all poll well! Mention them!

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Murphy is barely going to win in a state that Biden won by 16

This doesn’t bode well for states that aren’t solid blue

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Murgos posted:

I feel like I’m being gaslit again. I don’t see how people can look at a constitution ignoring, big lying, COVID denying, insurrection supporting, fascist, bigoted and racist Republican Party and vote in a new R governor.

Maybe I’m the one that’s wrong and just doesn’t understand?

Hint: Lots of people actually support all of those things. Trump would have easily won a second term if he wasn't such a loudmouth who wanted the news to be about him 24/7. That wore people out, but if you can be a lying COVID denying, insurrection supporting, fascist, bigoted and racist but smile and act normal, you will easily win elections in this country.

cunningham
Jul 28, 2004

cunningham posted:

Reporting from Thiensville, Wisconsin, home of this bullshit: https://www.wisn.com/article/mequon-thiensville-school-board-recall-election-national-attention/38126796

...which my literal neighbor spearheaded, egged on by nonstop AM talk radio bullshit. That's been fun.

My two reputable sources tell me that the RESTORE crew (i.e., the sensible board that was recalled by the REPLACE assholes, who were paid for by Chicago Libertarian billionaires and spouted CRT-inspired racist bullshit) won by ~60/40 margins. I will confirm tomorrow.

Some context on our district: we are incredibly 1) old, and 2) rich, but we are also trending purple: Thiensville went for Trump by something like 1 vote, and Mequon was not too far behind. This is a far cry from the M-T of old (heh), which has gone dead-red for decades. In addition to CRT, the REPLACE camp threw against the wall: masks; standardized test performance; LIBERALS, seemingly to no avail.

So, some good news from tonight.
Following up to confirm that cooler heads prevailed in at least one school district in Wisconsin. https://www.wisn.com/article/mequon-thiensvville-school-board-recall-election-results/38096523

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Neurolimal posted:

Even if they're unwilling to move left, democrats need to at least figure out how to guide the narrative. Youngkin basically made this The Scary Book Election, until Terry momentarily abandoned shadowboxing Trump to instead make it the McAuliffe Doesnt Want You To Have A Say In Your Kids' Education Election.

He didnt veto the insulin price cap, marijuana legalization, abolishing the death penalty, or community college assistance, so presumably he's cool with that stuff! And they all poll well! Mention them!

This. Terry was a loving moron and youngkin ran as a moderate ghoul who would bring back normalcy in schools both in lovely chud ways and other ways. He also kep trump away mostly.

Bel Shazar
Sep 14, 2012

Murgos posted:

I feel like I’m being gaslit again. I don’t see how people can look at a constitution ignoring, big lying, COVID denying, insurrection supporting, fascist, bigoted and racist Republican Party and vote in a new R governor.

Maybe I’m the one that’s wrong and just doesn’t understand?

Americans are loving evil...

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



T-Mac is a loving moron who in true Clintonite fashion shot himself in the foot multiple times while clowning it up and getting more arrogant everytime

In a sane party this would be the end of the loving Clinton Third Way wing but lol at that happening. My bigger concerns are the big defeats of progressive proposals in Blue cities by big business interests, which suggests the aging electorate has shifted back to complacency to capital so long as they are fine.

This FYGM Apathy hellhole of a country man

TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 13:37 on Nov 3, 2021

Edmund Lava
Sep 8, 2004

Hey, I'm from Brooklyn. I'm going to call myself Mr. Friendly.

NYS just voted to reject the proposals for redistributing changes, and two voting reforms allowing for mail in voting and same day registration. Just a loving miserable night. I loving hate this.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Edmund Lava posted:

NYS just voted to reject the proposals for redistributing changes, and two voting reforms allowing for mail in voting and same day registration. Just a loving miserable night. I loving hate this.
I really don’t get how that happens

Was there a lobbying effort against it?

Srice
Sep 11, 2011

Murgos posted:

I feel like I’m being gaslit again. I don’t see how people can look at a constitution ignoring, big lying, COVID denying, insurrection supporting, fascist, bigoted and racist Republican Party and vote in a new R governor.

Maybe I’m the one that’s wrong and just doesn’t understand?

It didn't have to be this way but McAuliffe just ran a terrible campaign and shot himself in the foot in plenty of ways. Like one of the lessons the dems should take away from this is to never run on a platform of "I'm not the other guy". The other big takeaway is that they need to focus on putting together some really good messaging on education because a lot of republicans are gonna look at what Youngkin did there and try to follow up on that. If they don't have an effective way to counter that narrative they're just gonna bleed more and more, losing elections that they should be able to win.

Sadly the realistic outcome is that they are gonna find a way to pin this on progressives instead of doing anything introspective.

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Angry_Ed posted:

India Walton has nobody to blame but herself:
https://twitter.com/thehousered/sta...ingawful.com%2F

If leftism/progressivism is going to succeed we have to actually be different from what we're trying to replace instead of being duplicitous and pissing off our allies.

For what it’s worth, she said she wouldn’t close any of the currently open charters, which I didn’t check but I’d be really surprised if Brown did. It looks like the school board actually reversed their endorsement because they thought endorsing her was divisive for their membership

https://mobile.twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1453110633696739333

The whole tweet thread there is a much better breakdown than this random guy who idk what his goal is

HashtagGirlboss fucked around with this message at 13:46 on Nov 3, 2021

Gort
Aug 18, 2003

Good day what ho cup of tea
There will always be business-interest candidates as it is economical for business interests to bankroll them

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Kalit posted:

Wow, what the hell happened with 3 and 4? I know nothing about these questions/NY, but they seem like an easy win....

FlamingLiberal posted:

I really don’t get how that happens

Was there a lobbying effort against it?


I don't know what happened either.

I do remember Elise Stefanik was sending out messages to her voters on these measures, so maybe the GOP and others were able to sow enough doubt about them.

https://www.nny360.com/top_stories/...c823f0dcc8.html

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



Srice posted:

It didn't have to be this way but McAuliffe just ran a terrible campaign and shot himself in the foot in plenty of ways. Like one of the lessons the dems should take away from this is to never run on a platform of "I'm not the other guy". The other big takeaway is that they need to focus on putting together some really good messaging on education because a lot of republicans are gonna look at what Youngkin did there and try to follow up on that. If they don't have an effective way to counter that narrative they're just gonna bleed more and more, losing elections that they should be able to win.

Sadly the realistic outcome is that they are gonna find a way to pin this on progressives instead of doing anything introspective.

Here's the deal: we might be in one of the most pro-labour political environments of our lifetime. Strikes everywhere, millions quitting their lovely jobs in solidarity, the Great Resignation is upon us. This is an absolute goldmine opportunity to get true Leftist grassroots movements going everywhere in this country.

...And the supposedly pro labour party wants to chase rich suburban voters. They can't engage at all with the groundswell of pro-labour sentiment because they are completely out of loving touch and just want status quo business time for the olds and white rich who vote. Like I don't know what else to say here: the Democrats squandered arguably one of the biggest pro labour culture shifts I've ever seen.

Until the Third Way liches are destroyed and their donor phylacteries smashed the Dems will never change.

TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 13:56 on Nov 3, 2021

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

It probably didn't help the narrative that Youngkin is a racist fascist stormtrooper when it was revealed that McAuliffe is an investor in his rapacious predatory vulture capitalist fund.

"This Hitler guy is bad news folks, an existential threat to us all!" *10,000 shares of Hitler Partners IV falls out of my pocket*

VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 14:10 on Nov 3, 2021

virtualboyCOLOR
Dec 22, 2004

VitalSigns posted:

It probably didn't help the narrative that Youngkin is a racist fascist stormtrooper when it was revealed that McAuliffe is an investor in his rapacious predatory vulture capitalist fund.

"This Hitler guy is bad news folks, an existential threat to us all!" *hides 10,000 shares of Hitler Partners IV behind my back*

What is it with leftist and actually proving both Dems and republicans want the same gross outcome? People need to look at all the good things Dems do like…kept Virginia a “right to work” state.

Inferior Third Season
Jan 15, 2005

Bel Shazar posted:

Americans are loving evil...
The swing to the right is global. The only difference in America is that the existing system is already garbage and was designed to favor the whims and prejudices of rural white people over systemic stability and mutual prosperity. The U.S. just started closer to total collapse than the other rich countries.

But make no mistake - across the world, there are far more public health systems being dismantled than being built. More attacks on the working class than protections being put into place for them. More draconian restrictions on immigration than welcoming arms.

Humanity is loving evil.

Jay-V
Nov 8, 2009
i thought jim clyburn would bring it home for t-mac

Peter Daou Zen
Apr 6, 2021

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Herstory Begins Now posted:

idk where the original post is, but shout out to you for calling virginia p much right on the money

Appreciate the congrats.

You can always bet(literally) on the Democrats to blow it.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Thom12255
Feb 23, 2013
WHERE THE FUCK IS MY MONEY

Peter Daou Zen posted:

Appreciate the congrats.

You can always bet(literally) on the Democrats to blow it.

Did you use PredictIt?

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