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Lib and let die
Aug 26, 2004

morothar posted:

Yeah, tough poo poo?

Democrats: we are a broad coalition ranging from socially and/or fiscally conservative-leaning folks who are at best repressed racists/fascists, to actually social and/or fiscal liberals

Ergo, doing good things for one special interest group at the perceived expense of the other groups - maybe not the best idea


Republicans: we’re doing good things by preventing or reversing scary and unnecessary change.

Welcome to coalitions, I suppose? How do you think things work in countries where Christian conservatives form a coalition with Greens?

I don't even know how to respond to this other than "thank you for demonstrating why so many leftists are fed up with and no longer wish to engage with the democrats' party."

So...thank you for demonstrating why so many leftists are fed up with and no longer wish to engage with the democrats' party. The democrats aren't leftists, and we want a leftist party.

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Byzantine
Sep 1, 2007

morothar posted:

Welcome to coalitions, I suppose? How do you think things work in countries where Christian conservatives form a coalition with Greens?

They get healthcare.

plogo
Jan 20, 2009

Mizaq posted:

Wait, I thought the usual thing to do in regards to the unemployment stats was to not count people who stopped receiving benefits. And in September the pandemic benefits ended. Are we just juking the stats as usual again?

There are a variety of different unemployment stats, the number most frequently cited in the media U-6, does what you say.

However, that's just for the media. Everyone has their special sauce. For example, a lot of people in the Federal Reserve system will look at something like the prime age employment to employment population ratio, which has its own drawbacks, but does not have the issue of not counting people who stopped receiving benefits.


https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



Harold Fjord posted:

It's not being proposed as a strategy, which would also require doing other things too. Each right thing Biden needs to do might not directly benefit 51% and could be argued to be "bad electoral strategy" but that's not why he should do them and that attitude is part of why so many people loving hate the Dems


VitalSigns posted:

Lol oh yeah I forgot about this.

All wrangling about optimal electoral strategy is pointless when Biden's priority is clearly to reassert the power relationships of capital and labor that existed before the pandemic, with getting reelected a distant second.

A few months ago on this board I was told that Biden will use the moratorium as a backdoor permanent forgiveness program. It doesn't trigger any crab-bucketing, it's ongoing relief for young people with debt who will be energized to come out and vote to defend it, and even when Republicans finally do retake the White House it may be too established by then for them to risk tampering with

I even believed the people who told me that. But lol nope, Starbucks CEO is complaining he can't find enough baristas at wage-slave pay. Gotta force debtors to get second jobs and refill that reserve pool of labor so wages can race back to the bottom. Can't even wait until after the elections, gotta gently caress millions and millions of millennials and Gen Z right before the midterms for maximal electoral damage.

It's loving this. It hadn't dawned on me but that's how the administration is going to bend the knee to capital and force their ungrateful serf class back to work. Because I was pondering this for a while myself: "why would the government re-open loan payments people can barely afford, at a time of high turnover and labor shortages, that makes no sense". Except it absolutely does if you think about it from the angle of business, who just want their serfs back in their place again. Which is pretty loving evil.

I say everyone just mass defaults on the students loans entirely, like one big strike. What are they going to do, sue millions of people?

It's the new age of debtor's prisons and colonies. Also, anyone is this thread who thinks "well debt is a personal choice" like it's some moral failing, you and your Protestant work indoctrination can go gently caress yourself, thanks. People don't typically fall into debt because they choose bad options; it's typically because they have zero options.

TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 15:06 on Nov 5, 2021

Ravenfood
Nov 4, 2011

morothar posted:


Welcome to coalitions, I suppose? How do you think things work in countries where Christian conservatives form a coalition with Greens?
They also generally have an actual leftist party that can sometimes form coalitions as well.

It sure would be nice if there was a party I could vote for that wasn't (at best) equivalent to Christian conservatives allied with Greens.

Vorik
Mar 27, 2014

At a time when Dems have the lowest support among non-college degree holders ever, and it being one of the key reasons T-Mac got trounced in VA and why the last GE was so close, passing debt relief would certainly would be the easiest lay up in history for Republicans, and would completely doom Democrats for a generation to come. They would immediately brand it as rich liberals passing handouts to city dwelling millennials who majored in underwater basket weaving or whatever. Would also be very easy for them to earn points with the suburbs as the older suburban population had to pay theirs and by god you should get some personal responsibility and pay yours too.

TheIncredulousHulk
Sep 3, 2012

The idea that Biden and the Dems are wisely skirting an electoral backlash by keeping a huge swathe of the electorate they routinely struggle to activate in federal debt peonage is incredible coping, especially since they're simultaneously rushing to mail an insane amount of money exclusively to blue state millionaires

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

morothar posted:


Again, not arguing against debt relief in principle, nor expanded access to college education etc. College should be free or at a nominal charge, and student debt is a racket.

But, politically, passing debt relief through an uncertain EO that has a nonzero chance of being tossed out in court down the line, and giving a handout to a small, relatively better-off slice of the electorate only is not a winning strategy either.
This just sounds like a bait and switch to me.

"Stop expecting Biden to do good things through EOs! Comprehensive legislation to address all aspects of the issue is a superior political strategy!"

"Oh so I should expect him to do that?"

"No you idiot, I already explained how the filibuster works! He can't do anything except EOs"

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

.
They added 4 weeks of paid leave back in, modified the SALT changes, and added some more spending. But, there is a 99% chance that all of those are going to get stripped out for the Senate versions. So, don't get too attached to them.

Great suggestion, and one with which I concur. SALT restoration will definitely stay in, and continue to benefit the wealthiest, and 4 weeks of paid leave (cut down from the original 12) will be further stripped or eradicated from the final bill.

quote:

That would put the estimated time for final passage and being signed into law around November 19th, assuming (and that is a giant assuming given the track record) no more major delays in the Senate.

I would put the estimated time for passage at whichever day is the last in the working year before Congress's own 30th* annual week of paid time off, late at night, so that everyone will be shocked later to discover some b.s. added at the last minute that does something to piss off voters, whether it's a new catfood commission to cut earned benefits or restoring the financial penalty for not purchasing private health insurance.

* Hyperbole, obviously; Congress only gets around half the year as paid time off, unless members are seriously ill, in which case they get "as much paid time off as they need." Just like every other working stiff in this country gets, right?

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
It’s annoying to discuss politics with people who won’t even acknowledge the possibility that forgiving student loan debt could cost Democrats more votes than it gets them.

And I have a lot of student loan debt.

Like, just because it’s not a congressional appropriation doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t be politically effective and technically correct to say that the government spent 1.7 trillion on people who are doing better than a lot of people who got no help.

Yes, on a Marxist level most holders of college debt are of the same class situation as people who didn’t go to college. But do you honestly think capital can’t drive a wedge between those two groups in public opinion? They do that poo poo constantly.

Gumball Gumption
Jan 7, 2012

Mellow Seas posted:

It’s annoying to discuss politics with people who won’t even acknowledge the possibility that forgiving student loan debt could cost Democrats more votes than it gets them.

And I have a lot of student loan debt.

Like, just because it’s not a congressional appropriation doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t be politically effective and technically correct to say that the government spent 1.7 trillion on people who are doing better than a lot of people who got no help.

Yes, on a Marxist level most holders of college debt are of the same class situation as people who didn’t go to college. But do you honestly think capital can’t drive a wedge between those two groups in public opinion? They do that poo poo constantly.

If they were to forgive student debt and than fail to show the impact and wide spread benefit it has than they're hopeless on being able to push a message out.

is pepsi ok
Oct 23, 2002

We have to elect Democrats so they can do good things.

Sorry, the Democrats can't do good things because then they might not get re-elected, which they need to do in order to do good things.

BougieBitch
Oct 2, 2013

Basic as hell

Lib and let die posted:

I don't even know how to respond to this other than "thank you for demonstrating why so many leftists are fed up with and no longer wish to engage with the democrats' party."

So...thank you for demonstrating why so many leftists are fed up with and no longer wish to engage with the democrats' party. The democrats aren't leftists, and we want a leftist party.

This specifically came up in response to your point about not getting the child tax credit. You said you wanted the tax credit to be UBI instead - if you want the Dems to focus on universal programs, a one-time loan forgiveness from Biden doesn't do that at all.

VitalSigns posted:

This just sounds like a bait and switch to me.

"Stop expecting Biden to do good things through EOs! Comprehensive legislation to address all aspects of the issue is a superior political strategy!"

"Oh so I should expect him to do that?"

"No you idiot, I already explained how the filibuster works! He can't do anything except EOs"

Biden doesn't write legislation, he just signs it. The bait-and-switch bit is true (ish), but the responsible party is the Republicans or else the US political system as a whole - if Biden does it via EO, they will gently caress it in the courts and it will screw 2022, and it won't get through the Senate because it is electoral poison for any senator from a rural/low pop state. It's a prisoner's dilemma problem where no one can have nice things because the American electorate is spiteful and will spike good policy for "other" people, not realizing that they are someone else's "other" people. There is no good solution because the urban-rural divide has been self-perpetuating for decades and to a large degree it is an extension of consequences of slavery and the Great Migration at the start of the century.

Basically, the Dems are less left than the results you see from national issue polling because the bulk of leftists live in comparatively few urban districts and get under-represented by House representation, and are even worse off for the Senate (especially in the long run). Minorities end up grouped together because being the only black person on your block was dangerous before and still could be now, and the resulting distribution benefits whites politically. On top of that, you have posters in here saying "I won't vote for Dems unless they do X for me", which is representitive of some of the population as a whole, but with 10 different Xs, and they only show up for presidential years when they hear their thing get mentioned, then stay home on off-years when the media stops talking about it and their issue doesn't get addressed. To get all 10 Xs through congress, you need to do these ridiculous omnibus bills so you can horse-trade "SALT tax cap" for NY and NJ with "green energy" for WA with "universal pre-K" for suburban districts with "free community college" for urban districts. Problem is, you have to give Joe Manchin something, and he counts "green energy" as a personal slight, and now you have to give him two scoops to get the bill through and this whole process is hugely unpopular even among people whose pet issue is included in the bill, because they don't care about the other 90% and "why not done"

BougieBitch fucked around with this message at 15:40 on Nov 5, 2021

Baronash
Feb 29, 2012

So what do you want to be called?

Lib and let die posted:

The democrats aren't leftists, and we want a leftist party.

Okay, but what exactly would this get you? Moral superiority?

Let's just pretend for a moment that a 3rd party could somehow be viable, and that this hypothetical party grabbed 40 seats in the Senate. They still need to get 50+1 to pass anything and that'll mean being in the same loving situation negotiating with the 50th vote. That's what building a coalition means.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
Decriminalizing weed sounds like an easier morale booster for the Democrats to pass with some cross-ideological appeal, but I'm sure there's too much resistance among the older party members and some massive corporate donor would probably fight it threatening too.

I run into way too much "THERE'S MORAL HAZARD WHEN IT COMES TO DEBT FORGIVENESS!" arguments even among poorer people so I wonder how well that really plays out. It'd be the right thing to do, though, so you might as well do it since the odds are you're going to get trounced anyway.


Annoyingly, the one big right and difficult thing this administration has done is get the hell out of Afghanistan and that just ended up being the thing that pissed the media off and lost Biden his most valuable ally.

Harold Fjord
Jan 3, 2004
It's annoying how people who want to justify inaction on the part of Biden act like student debt isn't part of a broader package of things we say he should do but won't and treat class analysis like it's psychohistory.

Meanwhile, SALT deductions.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Now that the numbers for Virginia are finalized you can look at some of the trends.

- Overall turnout was a new record for a Governor's race - looks like it will be ~56% of eligible voters

- Democratic turnout was up around 21% from the previous Gubernatorial election.

- Republican turnout was up around 26% from the previous Gubernatorial election.

- Democratic margins in NoVa/the Northern suburbs held to almost 2020 levels.

- Youngkin demolished in southwestern and rural Virginia - on both margins and turnout he ended up with over 50% more net votes from those areas than Republicans had in 2017. He matched or exceeded Trump's margin in every single county in the SW.

- Even though those rural areas are small, when Youngkin was winning 91% of the vote in some of them + exploding turnout, it made the difference.

- Some people hypothesized that Youngkin's dog whistle politics would be somewhat countered by increased minority opposition to him, but he did about the same as every other statewide Republican governor. He didn't improve, but wasn't seemingly hurt by it.


The only 100% clear conclusion that you can draw is that the idea that increased overall turnout will always benefit Democrats clearly isn't true.

The other thing is that Democrats need to find a way to either demotivate or change the votes of the large amount of rural voters who are energized by racial rhetoric and politics. I have no idea what the surefire way to do that would be. They can get blown out by 40 points with these voters and still win easily, but they can't get blown out by 80+ points.

Not sure what you can do with that information on a national level (or if it even applies outside of VA, it didn't happen in California where Newsom got blown out by the "normal" amount among those voters).

Edit:

Sort of the opposite happened in New Jersey, where it looks like Murphy saw a general all-around drop in support from every geographic area with a larger drop in southern Jersey (similar to what happened in SW VA, but to a much smaller level).

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 15:27 on Nov 5, 2021

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
Something that I do think would have absolutely no political fallout and some political benefit is restructuring debt payments to be small - I've seen 5% of gross income floated as a possibility; I think they should go lower but 5% is a good start. You should also get unlimited forbearance if you're not working. Extend the moratorium through the midterms.

I figure it is probably also within the DOE's authority to eliminate or at least decrease interest accrual on loans. I would also note that with a student loan burden that's my size, I've technically already had thousands of dollars in loan forgiveness due to the non-accrual of interest since April '20. Doesn't feel as good as the balance going down but I do owe substantially less than I would have. (And I recognize that Trump-era policy is responsible for a lot of those savings.)

e: sorry, quoting the post below me

Sharkie posted:

This is true of literally everything ever. Oh well, better do nothing. At least Repubs might not yell at them as much if they don't do anything. You know, it's not so much that it's absolute cowardice, just real cringey pathetic poo poo, it's that the admin clearly doesn't want to do these things, so they let other people perform being nebbish, nail-biting cowards in order to give Biden et al. cover for not doing things he doesn't want to do. And that's really gross.

Here's a bad policy: 1.7 trillion to college graduates.

Here's a good policy: 1.7 trillion to everybody, in cash. >$5000 per American. (Instead of a high-five-figures sum to Mellow Seas, who is doing fine financially and as a computer-toucher can post on SomethingAwful at 10:30 AM as opposed to actual hard-working non-college voters who make jack poo poo.)

Yes, the first can (theoretically) be done without Congress, while the second would need a bill to be passed. But good luck explaining to voters why you did the former instead of the latter.

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 15:26 on Nov 5, 2021

Sharkie
Feb 4, 2013

by Fluffdaddy

Mellow Seas posted:

It’s annoying to discuss politics with people who won’t even acknowledge the possibility that forgiving student loan debt could cost Democrats more votes than it gets them.

This is true of literally everything ever. Oh well, better do nothing. At least Repubs might not yell at them as much if they don't do anything. You know, it's not so much that it's absolute cowardice, just real cringey pathetic poo poo, it's that the admin clearly doesn't want to do these things, so they let other people perform being nebbish, nail-biting cowards in order to give Biden et al. cover for not doing things he doesn't want to do. And that's really gross.

Gumball Gumption posted:

If they were to forgive student debt and than fail to show the impact and wide spread benefit it has than they're hopeless on being able to push a message out.

This last part isn't true, we've already seen they have an entire strategy to push out their "Time to start paying back your debts" message.

Gumball Gumption
Jan 7, 2012

The Democrats are like a coalition in countries that have a multi party parliamentary system is really dumb.

Motto
Aug 3, 2013

It's really funny that democrats will see themselves do better with college grads and decide the best thing to do is make college less accessible and punish those who do go.

morothar
Dec 21, 2005

Lib and let die posted:

So...thank you for demonstrating why so many leftists are fed up with and no longer wish to engage with the democrats' party. The democrats aren't leftists, and we want a leftist party.

You're not wrong, and the rightwards shift of the political spectrum here in the US is insane.


Byzantine posted:

They get healthcare.

Everybody gets healthcare, it's the societal consensus in the developed world. It's got nothing to do with coalitions, everything with the electorate / society


VitalSigns posted:

This just sounds like a bait and switch to me.

"Stop expecting Biden to do good things through EOs! Comprehensive legislation to address all aspects of the issue is a superior political strategy!"

"Oh so I should expect him to do that?"

"No you idiot, I already explained how the filibuster works! He can't do anything except EOs"

Because passing an EO, and everybody running out to buy a house with the new disposable income, just for SCOTUS to decide two years later that, whoops, the EO was unconstitutional, and you get your debt back with compound interest - that's going to work out just great.


Gumball Gumption posted:

If they were to forgive student debt and than fail to show the impact and wide spread benefit it has than they're hopeless on being able to push a message out.

How do you show the positive impact on Joe Shmoe in rural Colorado? Or the positive impact on Joe Shmue in Newark? Rising house prices? You think even a plurality of people give a gently caress about 'wide-spread' benefit to society that doesn't have a direct impact on them? That's a luxury position that's possibly attainable by upper-middle class leftists.


is pepsi ok posted:

We have to elect Democrats so they can do good things.

Sorry, the Democrats can't do good things because then they might not get re-elected, which they need to do in order to do good things.

The way I see the US, you *have* to elect Democrats to prevent worse from happening. Sometimes you may get a good thing. But not being able to maintain power means you won't get to *keep* even the occasional good thing, nor do you get to prevent worse things from happening. Gentle reminder that the ACA prevailing was a 100% personality-driven fluke that came down to one man.

Baronash
Feb 29, 2012

So what do you want to be called?

Gumball Gumption posted:

The Democrats are like a coalition in countries that have a multi party parliamentary system is really dumb.

Nah, I just think that Lib and Let Die's belief that the "one weird trick" to getting everything they want is having the option to vote for Chester Leftiersonton under the Luxury Gay Space Communism Party ticket instead of the Democratic Party ticket is the logic of a child.

Harold Fjord
Jan 3, 2004
We saw how well that approach of offering nothing worked in VA.

Xombie
May 22, 2004

Soul Thrashing
Black Sorcery

morothar posted:

I’m not limiting it to under-34s, I’m pointing out that student loans are relatively most common among under-34s, and rapidly drop to 15% and less of the older cohorts from there.
15% is not only a very narrow slice of the electorate

At this point you're just fudging numbers. "I"m not writing off a full third of the electorate, I'm writing off *more than 15%* of the electorate" is not a good argument for writing off a significant chunk of the Democratic base that is least likely to vote.

quote:

stories about white collar lawyers, engineers, doctors, and STEM workers receiving a handout while making six-figure salaries are ideal material to drive GOP voter turnout among the uneducated, especially if they perceive to not have received anything similar in turn.

I am a STEM worker. I am not rich. Most lawyers and engineers aren't rich. Most of these people are not making six figures. Your examples of the gilded elite are actually middle-class jobs. I don't understand your logic where 15-40% of the electorate doesn't matter because they're a minority, but the minority of STEM and law employees under 40 making six figures are going to enrage people to the point that there's some secret contingent GOP non-voters who outnumber them into starting to vote.

Your math here does not make sense. Doing nothing and hoping that it makes your opponent's supporters forget about the election is not a winning strategy.

quote:

Your last paragraph literally describes special interest group thinking, and shows how the net benefit calculation doesn’t add up.

You've invented your own definition of "special interest group" that no one has any reason to lend any credence to.

quote:

But, politically, passing debt relief through an uncertain EO that has a nonzero chance of being tossed out in court down the line,

This is a myth. And Biden has not made any moves to pushing it through congress, either. He has not included it any agenda and openly opposed Congress doing it. He makes overtures that he'll study the issue of whether or not an EO can be passed, after many many people tell him he can, and then the supposed memo about it disappears into the mist instead of coming to light.

quote:

and giving a handout to a small, relatively better-off slice of the electorate only is not a winning strategy either.

Again, this is nonsense. Very few people with student loans are making six figures.

Xombie fucked around with this message at 15:32 on Nov 5, 2021

is pepsi ok
Oct 23, 2002

morothar posted:

The way I see the US, you *have* to elect Democrats to prevent worse from happening. Sometimes you may get a good thing. But not being able to maintain power means you won't get to *keep* even the occasional good thing, nor do you get to prevent worse things from happening. Gentle reminder that the ACA prevailing was a 100% personality-driven fluke that came down to one man.

Yes this has been the standard reply for the last two decades. Perhaps we can review those decades to determine if the strategy has actually worked. Has lining up for the Dems despite their endless failures actually prevented things from getting worse? I'll leave the reader to think real hard about the trajectory of the last two decades, and where we appear to be headed in the next two, and decide.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

So this is going to be the Democrats' strategy next year huh.

People begging the government to do something, anything about the debt crushing their families get a long ponderous condescending dissertation on political stratagems and polling numbers that shows off how smart the speaker is but lacks any specific plan of action.

"Wow you sure know a lot of big words, so you're going to do that strategy to get me the help I need?"
"Lol. No."

gently caress, here we go, strap in everybody!

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Maybe Biden should just write a $50,000 loan forgiveness into EO quasilaw and then go to the mat on it in the courts and campaign on it if he can't get it. Force a bunch of conservative justices who ordinarily believe in Unitary Sun King Theory into showing their underpants about how actually the president can't do a thing when it isn't a Republican's idea. I don't know, just spitballing here.

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Harold Fjord posted:

We saw how well that approach of offering nothing worked in VA.

https://www.virginiamercury.com/2021/11/01/cheat-sheet-youngkin-and-mcauliffe-on-the-issues/

Local Press posted:

At the start of his campaign, McAuliffe released a six-page plan pledging “the largest increase in education investment in the history of Virginia.” He’s promised more funding to raise teacher salaries above the national average, expand access to preschool and fully adopt the Standards of Quality recommended by the Virginia Board of Education — guidance for staffing ratios, class size and other school resources.
...
Building on Democrats’ push to make Virginia friendlier to workers as well as executives, McAuliffe says he’ll require employers to offer paid sick days and family medical leave, ideas that have been discussed in the Democratic-led General Assembly but have yet to be broadly implemented. He has also called for speeding up planned increases in the state’s minimum wage, getting it to $15 per hour by 2024.
...
McAuliffe has said Youngkin’s tax policies, including the GOP nominee’s aspirations of eliminating the state income tax altogether, would inevitably blow up the state budget and bring major service cuts.
...
McAuliffe, meanwhile, has laid out detailed plans to continue the criminal justice reform initiatives set in motion last year. That includes promises to eliminate mandatory minimum sentences, hire more public defenders, fund police accreditation efforts and bring new rehabilitation programs to state prisons, including a nursery program for prisoners with newborn children.
Just because you didn't hear about the good policies McAuliffe was running on doesn't mean they didn't exist. (People not hearing about them, and instead just hearing a bunch of shrieking about CRT and parents' rights, does mean both that (a) he ran a poo poo campaign and that (b) our media is hosed.)

VitalSigns posted:

So this is going to be the Democrats' strategy next year huh.

People begging the government to do something, anything about the debt crushing their families get a long ponderous condescending dissertation on political stratagems and polling numbers that shows off how smart the speaker is but lacks any specific plan of action.

"Wow you sure know a lot of big words, so you're going to do that strategy to get me the help I need?"
"Lol. No."

gently caress, here we go, strap in everybody!
Yeah, I mean, if there are people who will vote against Democrats for not forgiving their student loans, and people who will vote against Democrats for forgiving other people's student loans, then they're just hosed on the issue and can't win. Which is probably a very accurate description of the situation.

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 15:35 on Nov 5, 2021

Gumball Gumption
Jan 7, 2012

How do you tell Joe Schmo he's benefiting from SALT? These are strategy arguments for a party that isn't fighting for SALT while compromising on actual improvements and undercutting how they said they would pay for those improvements.

Motto
Aug 3, 2013

morothar posted:

How do you show the positive impact on Joe Shmoe in rural Colorado? Or the positive impact on Joe Shmue in Newark? Rising house prices? You think even a plurality of people give a gently caress about 'wide-spread' benefit to society that doesn't have a direct impact on them? That's a luxury position that's possibly attainable by upper-middle class leftists.
...
The way I see the US, you *have* to elect Democrats to prevent worse from happening. Sometimes you may get a good thing. But not being able to maintain power means you won't get to *keep* even the occasional good thing, nor do you get to prevent worse things from happening. Gentle reminder that the ACA prevailing was a 100% personality-driven fluke that came down to one man.

I agree with you, in that nebulously preventing "worse things" is not something that makes anyone like or want to support Dems beyond backlash to a Republican president every decade or so.

Lib and let die
Aug 26, 2004

Baronash posted:

Nah, I just think that Lib and Let Die's belief that the "one weird trick" to getting everything they want is having the option to vote for Chester Leftiersonton under the Luxury Gay Space Communism Party ticket instead of the Democratic Party ticket is the logic of a child.

We are not going to get what I want by voting for it.

And what's with this very recent, coordinated use of the "one weird trick" meme to deride leftist ideals? It's come up a ton in this thread over the last few days and all I can think is that it came out of the latest TYT members-only livestream or something.

Darkrenown
Jul 18, 2012
please give me anything to talk about besides the fact that democrats are allowing millions of americans to be evicted from their homes

VitalSigns posted:

I didn't question the reforms themselves, I obviously agree with them, I questioned the glaring contradiction between acknowledging that donations and other perks are such a problem it needs strict oversight and your commitment to dying on the hill of defending as "no big deal" politicians taking those donations in practice.

Hello! Again, the problem is you don't seem to be reading my posts, just scanning for things to be angry about, as I did cover this at least twice. But: I don't see much point being angry at individual politicians taking donations now because that's how the current system works and taking them is universal. Instead I would like to see a system where that's not the case, plus a bunch of other reforms. Don't be mad at the clowns for being clowns, stop going to the circus.

Baronash
Feb 29, 2012

So what do you want to be called?

Lib and let die posted:

We are not going to get what I want by voting for it.
Say the next line then.

Lib and let die posted:

And what's with this very recent, coordinated use of the "one weird trick" meme to deride leftist ideals? It's come up a ton in this thread over the last few days and all I can think is that it came out of the latest TYT members-only livestream or something.
People like making trite jokes, but if you think it's a conspiracy then by all means go off.

Xombie
May 22, 2004

Soul Thrashing
Black Sorcery

morothar posted:

Because passing an EO, and everybody running out to buy a house with the new disposable income, just for SCOTUS to decide two years later that, whoops, the EO was unconstitutional, and you get your debt back with compound interest - that's going to work out just great.

I have never seen a way that reinstating forgiven debt at this level would be legally possible. Biden promised that he would actually come out with a memo on the subject and so far has gone radio silence since stating it would happen months ago.

quote:

How do you show the positive impact on Joe Shmoe in rural Colorado? Or the positive impact on Joe Shmue in Newark? Rising house prices? You think even a plurality of people give a gently caress about 'wide-spread' benefit to society that doesn't have a direct impact on them? That's a luxury position that's possibly attainable by upper-middle class leftists.

Only enacting policies that help 100% of the electorate is neither an effective legislative or electoral strategy. Not doing anything for the middle class because it doesn't pander to blue collar workers is asinine.

quote:

The way I see the US, you *have* to elect Democrats to prevent worse from happening. Sometimes you may get a good thing. But not being able to maintain power means you won't get to *keep* even the occasional good thing, nor do you get to prevent worse things from happening. Gentle reminder that the ACA prevailing was a 100% personality-driven fluke that came down to one man.

Because the political identity of the US is a pendulum that swings between right and left, electing Democrats as they currently exist does not seem to actually stop worse things from happening. It just delays it for a few years. The Democrats promise the moon when they run for office and then refuse to wield the power to actually achieve their own policy goals, for fear of riling up the GOP base. Instead this achieves depressing their own voters and handing the GOP power again at barely behind where the GOP last left off.

This is why trying to avoid electoral loss by not achieving progressive goals is a losing battle. Achieving nothing legislatively does not translate to winning electorally.

Xombie fucked around with this message at 15:46 on Nov 5, 2021

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Lib and let die posted:

And what's with this very recent, coordinated use of the "one weird trick" meme to deride leftist ideals? It's come up a ton in this thread over the last few days and all I can think is that it came out of the latest TYT members-only livestream or something.
People seeing a vaguely clever turn-of-phrase and then clumsily incorporating into their own posting? On this dead gay comedy website, in TYOOL 2021? :monocle:

Harold Fjord
Jan 3, 2004
It's not a conspiracy to suggest that someone might be repeating talking points. That's what the talking points are for.

But people who don't understand class analysis are always calling everything a conspiracy theory.

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



Motto posted:

It's really funny that democrats will see themselves do better with college grads and decide the best thing to do is make college less accessible and punish those who do go.

BUT MAYBE WE WILL GET BLUE COLLAR WORKERS AND RACISTS TO VOTE FOR US GUYS :byodood:


Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Now that the numbers for Virginia are finalized you can look at some of the trends.

- Overall turnout was a new record for a Governor's race - looks like it will be ~56% of eligible voters

- Democratic turnout was up around 21% from the previous Gubernatorial election.

- Republican turnout was up around 26% from the previous Gubernatorial election.

- Democratic margins in NoVa/the Northern suburbs held to almost 2020 levels.

- Youngkin demolished in southwestern and rural Virginia - on both margins and turnout he ended up with over 50% more net votes from those areas than Republicans had in 2017. He matched or exceeded Trump's margin in every single county in the SW.

- Even though those rural areas are small, when Youngkin was winning 91% of the vote in some of them + exploding turnout, it made the difference.

- Some people hypothesized that Youngkin's dog whistle politics would be somewhat countered by increased minority opposition to him, but he did about the same as every other statewide Republican governor. He didn't improve, but wasn't seemingly hurt by it.


The only 100% clear conclusion that you can draw is that the idea that increased overall turnout will always benefit Democrats clearly isn't true.

The other thing is that Democrats need to find a way to either demotivate or change the votes of the large amount of rural voters who are energized by racial rhetoric and politics. I have no idea what the surefire way to do that would be. They can get blown out by 40 points with these voters and still win easily, but they can't get blown out by 80+ points.

Not sure what you can do with that information on a national level (or if it even applies outside of VA, it didn't happen in California where Newsom got blown out by the "normal" amount among those voters).

Edit:

Sort of the opposite happened in New Jersey, where it looks like Murphy saw a general all-around drop in support from every geographic area with a larger drop in southern Jersey (similar to what happened in SW VA, but to a much smaller level).

Gee...if only there were some policies that were broadly popular with the democratic urban, youth, minority base that could energize turnout from a still pretty untapped base to make up for frothing at the mouth white rural racists and bigots that you will never get in a thousand years to vote blue. What could those be though? :thunk:

Truly a riddle that can never be solved

Worry about energizing your own loving base that vastly outnumbers the rural vote any given god drat day? Don't rely on suburban Karen and Nimbys to vote for you ever? Actually make connections to the struggling working class?

No, those people who have criminal records for weed and crippling debt deserve them, now how can we make sure those people getting paid leave are actually working, let's means test this poo poo into the ground. What's that suburbs? You will vote for us if we do SALT? Oh, you voted for the dog whistle pro-business Republican? Ah well, maybe we will get that football eventually! :shepface:

This is an idiotic political strategy that reads like how boomers run their business: stripped down to bare bones with paper slim margins and no real return on investment.

TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 15:48 on Nov 5, 2021

TheIncredulousHulk
Sep 3, 2012

Polls aren't evidence there's a meaningful anti-constituency against student loan forgiveness, and this whole take is just working backwards from the conclusion that Biden and the Dems must be avoiding action for good reasons and we just need to figure out what they are

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Vorik
Mar 27, 2014

Mellow Seas posted:

https://www.virginiamercury.com/2021/11/01/cheat-sheet-youngkin-and-mcauliffe-on-the-issues/

Just because you didn't hear about the good policies McAuliffe was running on doesn't mean they didn't exist. (People not hearing about them, and instead just hearing a bunch of shrieking about CRT and parents' rights, does mean both that (a) he ran a poo poo campaign and that (b) our media is hosed.)

Yeah, I mean, if there are people who will vote against Democrats for not forgiving their student loans, and people who will vote against Democrats for forgiving other people's student loans, then they're just hosed on the issue and can't win. Which is probably a very accurate description of the situation.

As was pointed out earlier in the thread, turnout was actually great for VA dems this election. It was simply greater for Rs, and also the bottom fell out from the support of non-college degree holders for dems. He would have needed presidential level turnout to really overcome the massive republican surge. Dems listened to too many people who wanted to keep schools shut down and they didn't think about how this would affect parents. There were so many people screeching last year about how kids should shut up and deal with the remote learning. It cost dems nearly in VA and almost cost Phil Murphy in NJ as well.

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