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your risks then are totality risks, expropriation, etc i am pro expropriation for the record, just as long as its for glorious revolution and not the fash
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Nov 6, 2021 20:40
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It sounds like you have an expensive lifestyle and can’t imagine someone retiring with less
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Nov 6, 2021 20:52
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Presumably, one of the points of retiring early is that you have the time and resources to do fun things (travel, hobbies, partying, collecting) while you're still young enough to enjoy them. You don't retire at age 40 so you can move into a small apartment, watch TV all day, clip grocery store coupons, and take the bus to the public library once a week (like most elderly retirees I know).
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Nov 6, 2021 20:58
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Blinkz0rz posted:You're still thinking about 65-death as retirement (and whether 250k is actually enough to cover that depends on a lot of luck). Add another 20+ years and it becomes a different proposition, especially because lifestyles change as you age. Even more so if you're looking to retire young enough that you might not have even thought about having a family. I'm not, though. I recommend you play around with the various calculators to see the actual, backtested risk. 3% is a very safe, perpetual withdraw rate. Here's 90K/year, with 3MM saved for a 60 year retirement starting at 35 with a conservative 60/40 portfolio. This is just your portfolio, not including SS: https://engaging-data.com/will-mone...old=100&mort=ss Lifestyle changes could be anything. I'd argue that 90K/year is more than most of the country lives on, with kids/family. If you 'need' $250K/year to live, than yeah, you better have a fat stack of cash to FIRE.
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Nov 6, 2021 21:03
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FMguru posted:Presumably, one of the points of retiring early is that you have the time and resources to do fun things (travel, hobbies, partying, collecting) while you're still young enough to enjoy them. You don't retire at age 40 so you can move into a small apartment, watch TV all day, clip grocery store coupons, and take the bus to the public library once a week (like most elderly retirees I know). I think people dramatically over estimate how expensive traveling is if you don't have to jam it all in to several weeks that also have everyone else traveling. I also think people don't understand just how much $90k is when your tax rate caps at 15% and your effective tax rate is at worst 7.5% and likely lower far lower. There of course is some risk outside your control as those tax rates may increase, ACA subsidies could vanish, a medical condition could be extremely expensive , but on the flip side there's a significant chance that you die before you retire at 60+.
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Nov 6, 2021 21:11
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B-Nasty posted:The average amount of savings most people retire with is less than $250K  the median is about 250K. The average is about 900K."Median net worth by age according to the Federal Reserve." (official Federal Reserve report) (Edit: the post where I found this had lots of questions like "does this include property? what about 401k? Income from pensions?" etc, and the answer was yes, it included all that)  Either way, 250K (and this seems to be by household, not person) seems terrifyingly low. I don't think $10MM net worth is an insane amount to feel comfortable in certain situations. Non-terrible retirement homes and hospice care can soak up $7k a month, so if you have 2 elderly parents to care for (or god help you, 4), that's $340k/year, and that's before medical expenses and insurance. I don't know what the "net-worth-to-retire" threshold would be for my family. If I retired at 65, who knows what could happen in the next 40 years? I wonder if people who retired in 1981 had any inkling of the changes that have happened since then. minato fucked around with this message at 21:18 on Nov 6, 2021 |
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Nov 6, 2021 21:15
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FMguru posted:Presumably, one of the points of retiring early is that you have the time and resources to do fun things (travel, hobbies, partying, collecting) while you're still young enough to enjoy them. You don't retire at age 40 so you can move into a small apartment, watch TV all day, clip grocery store coupons, and take the bus to the public library once a week (like most elderly retirees I know). There's a lot of room between these two positions. I'm nearly 40 at my peak earning power as a DINK and I spend nothing on partying, collecting, or travel, and I have cheap hobbies. Surely a person who is retiring early isn't looking to fill a room in their mcmodern with funko pops at nights after they get home from taking their boats out on the lake. Globe trotting and conspicuous consumption are likely not in the cards for an early retiree unless they are heirs or had an 8 figure windfall, or cheap travel becomes your lifestyle when you're not having to pack it in a week of crammed PTO. That doesn't mean you can't live a healthy lifestyle doing what you love on your own terms. biceps crimes fucked around with this message at 21:41 on Nov 6, 2021 |
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Nov 6, 2021 21:20
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an honest backtest will also include prerevolution russian and chinese data (which is frankly not easy to get and sometimes doesnt exist) and therefore will have expropriation as an actual thing that can happen
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Nov 6, 2021 21:21
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minato posted:Either way, 250K (and this seems to be by household, not person) seems terrifyingly low. People overestimate how much money they will 'need' when they retire at around the typical retirement age. Assuming your house is paid off, and you collect SS for you+spouse and you have Medicare, you can live pretty comfortable. Not touring around the world at 5 star resorts, but most of the time, people only have like 10 years or so before the health issues start hitting hard. As a man, you have a 25% chance of being dead by 70, and a 50% chance at 80. Personally, I'm definitely not FIRE-ready, but I'm positioned pretty well given my assets and relatively low expenses. My plan is to be ready for ageism to hit at 50 by having the house paid off (done), a portfolio north of 2MM (well on the way), and a good amount of college savings for the kids (well on the way). I'm almost 42, so I have the next decade to do the best I can. If I can work until my late 50s, great, but I'm trying to avoid relying on that.
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Nov 6, 2021 21:34
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B-Nasty posted:As a man, you have a 25% chance of being dead by 70, and a 50% chance at 80. As a newborn male, maybe. If you've already survived to 65 the numbers are considerably lower.
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Nov 6, 2021 21:37
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Our current plan is to have the option to retire when the last of the kids turns 18 and leaves the house. For us that's probably around 55. The plan is to keep a very small house in a low cost of living area adjacent to other family, and then split our time in low cost of living areas like Spain, Hungary, Vietnam etc until one or both of us has medical problems. Based on our grandparents that ought to give us 15 good years of functional retirement before we need to slow down. There's a long term investing thread over in the finance subforum Edit: link to thread https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=2892928&pagenumber=972&perpage=40&userid=0#post519047522
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Nov 6, 2021 21:39
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ultrafilter posted:As a newborn male, maybe. If you've already survived to 65 the numbers are considerably lower. True, but I'm looking at it from the perspective of someone that is young, considering when they might die to inform when they want to retire. If you're pretty healthy at 65, you know you've 'made it' to some degree. At 35, where almost everybody is healthy, you don't have the same info.
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Nov 6, 2021 21:50
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B-Nasty posted:People overestimate how much money they will 'need' when they retire at around the typical retirement age. Assuming your house is paid off, and you collect SS for you+spouse and you have Medicare, you can live pretty comfortable. Not touring around the world at 5 star resorts, but most of the time, people only have like 10 years or so before the health issues start hitting hard. As a man, you have a 25% chance of being dead by 70, and a 50% chance at 80. Lmao because minato posted:Non-terrible retirement homes and hospice care can soak up $7k a month and a bunch of other reasons. Let's drop back for a second and address your assumptions: Assumption 1: Your paid off house Reality: House upkeep continues to cost money and property taxes generally go up. The cost of downsizing (because most folks end up paying off the house that they bought when they needed the most space) is a large chunk of liquid cash that can be tough to free up. Assumption 2: No need for transportation, right? Reality: Cars cost money and they don't last forever. Even if you only buy one cheap-ish car during your retirement it's still a big chunk of cash at one time or a significant debt per month. Also the cost of gas and how much you use your car. Active retirement generally means going more places and doing more things. Assumption 3: You don't actually want to do anything, right? Reality: Being active when you're older costs more money than being active when you're younger. The "any old bed" thing when you're in your 20s and 30s? Lol if you think that works when you're 75 much less 65. Same thing with the amount of support required to travel. It takes longer to go places and do things and when you're traveling, especially when you're older, time costs money. Assumption 4: Health issues have a short timeline Reality: Most elder healthcare is about management rather than the acute health events when you're younger. That management costs an increasing amount of money as you age and Medicare doesn't cover all of it. Even the stuff Medicare does cover is limited in how quickly it can be addressed by the providers that actually accept Medicare. Assumption 5: Death is quick Reality: It can take a surprisingly long time to die if you die of old age. Assisted living and hospice care is unbelievably expensive.  your wallet if you need dedicated nursing care. Actually dying is expensive too unless you're fine punting that cost off to your kids. Oh wait, you didn't account for kids anywhere in these assumptions. Anyway, your situation and risk tolerance is yours alone but a lot of folks who get excited for early retirement haven't seen much of what it actually takes to be retired and age from 65 to death. It's expensive and complicated and assuming costs on a fixed incoming is really tough. Now add an extra 20 years to that retirement and you can see why going "oh live on 90k a year" might be tough even in the ideal situation.
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Nov 6, 2021 21:55
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Blinkz0rz posted:Anyway, your situation and risk tolerance is yours alone but a lot of folks who get excited for early retirement haven't seen much of what it actually takes to be retired and age from 65 to death. It's expensive and complicated and assuming costs on a fixed incoming is really tough. Now add an extra 20 years to that retirement and you can see why going "oh live on 90k a year" might be tough even in the ideal situation. Yet, most of the country manages to navigate these issues, without having a mid-7-figure portfolio to fall back on. If you early retire with $3MM and can keep your spending to <=90K/year, you will still be entering regular retirement age with almost the same amount of money -- that is, over 10X what the median retirement nest egg is. Then, you collect SS and use Medicare like everybody else. That 90K/year should cover car replacement, house maintenance, and any/all other typical expenses, just as it is capable of doing for most families that are not FIRE'd. If your expenses are higher than that, you can either cut back on your lifestyle, or you need to save more. I'm just pointing out how out of touch it is to say that you can't retire with an amount of wealth and investment income that most people could never even conceive of. I agree with your points about long-term care. It's a scary unknown, but there are ways to mitigate the risk with LTC insurance and asset-protection/shielding strategies.
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Nov 6, 2021 22:09
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B-Nasty posted:Yet, most of the country manages to navigate these issues Yeah that's the thing. Most of the country doesn't. Lots of older folks die in poverty and it's a pretty solid minority that are actually able to accumulate enough wealth to pay for a comfortable retirement and death much less leave an estate. B-Nasty posted:I'm just pointing out how out of touch it is to say that you can't retire with an amount of wealth and investment income that most people could never even conceive of. To be clear, I'm not saying you can't do it. What I'm saying is that given the significant number of financial risks you assume by effectively living off savings without replenishing it, I wouldn't be comfortable taking that risk over a longer period of time without a bit more money in the bank. I'm definitely not going to have that kind of scratch when I retire which is why I'm not retiring in my 30s or 40s. Blinkz0rz fucked around with this message at 22:19 on Nov 6, 2021 |
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Nov 6, 2021 22:16
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Blinkz0rz posted:financial risks you assume by effectively living off savings without replenishing it, I wouldn't be comfortable taking that risk over a longer period of time without a bit more money in the bank. Perhaps this is our disconnect. You're not (significantly) depleting your savings, the 3% is a safe withdraw rate that essentially doesn't touch the starting principal. The Trinity Study typically throws around an actual SWR of 4%. At that rate, over a 30-year span, there's a 96% chance you end up with more principal than you started with. Dropping that down to 3% to account for >30 years is essentially fool-proof. The typical floor, regardless of length, is usually calculated at 3.5% You'll still have your initial $3MM (likely much more) to leave to heirs or to help pay for EOL care.
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Nov 6, 2021 22:31
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B-Nasty posted:Perhaps this is our disconnect. You're not (significantly) depleting your savings, the 3% is a safe withdraw rate that essentially doesn't touch the starting principal. The Trinity Study typically throws around an actual SWR of 4%. At that rate, over a 30-year span, there's a 96% chance you end up with more principal than you started with. Dropping that down to 3% to account for >30 years is essentially fool-proof. The typical floor, regardless of length, is usually calculated at 3.5% You'll still have your initial $3MM (likely much more) to leave to heirs or to help pay for EOL care. It also assumes current market trends which is a huge "if", especially when your timeline is a 40 year retirement and tech moves fast enough that if everything falls apart after 10 or 15 years it's going to be intensely difficult to break back into the workforce. Anyway, you don't have to prove anything to me. For my situation, early retirement is both an impossibility as well as something I wouldn't be comfortable with given the risks.
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Nov 6, 2021 22:36
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blinkzorz, that's why i was making fun of you for "leaving retirement in a checking account" blinkzorz you are now canonically a dragon, btw. not my decision, that's just the way it is. on the up side, if you want to demolish a small village it's well within your rights
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Nov 6, 2021 22:38
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I played with one of those retirement income calculators that lets you estimate monthly income from your 401k based on when you retire. I discovered "wow, if I retire at 83 I get 1 million dollars a month from my 401k", if I retire at 84 I can get 2 million dollars a month - it then occurred to me that prudential thinks I'm going to die when I'm 85.
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Nov 6, 2021 22:50
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Achmed Jones posted:blinkzorz, that's why i was making fun of you for "leaving retirement in a checking account" i mean, we're also a single-income family and i'm not on a manga income so maybe go stuff that poo poo, ok?
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Nov 6, 2021 22:52
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Bruegels Fuckbooks posted:it then occurred to me that prudential thinks I'm going to die when I'm 85. Post-late-stage capitalism insurance company hitmen. They will fit your 85-year-old rear end in around all the people with lifetime warranties they have to kill.
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Nov 6, 2021 22:54
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Blinkz0rz posted:It also assumes current market trends which is a huge "if", especially when your timeline is a 40 year retirement and tech moves fast enough that if everything falls apart after 10 or 15 years it's going to be intensely difficult to break back into the workforce. If the market collapses permanently, you'll have far greater problems than having early retired, and you're probably not going to be in a better position having not early retired. This is all just conjecture though, it is clear that you are passionate about this being an impossibility and any more on this should probably be in BFC
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Nov 6, 2021 23:17
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Blinkz0rz posted:i mean, we're also a single-income family and i'm not on a manga income so maybe go stuff that poo poo, ok? im not seeing the connection between not working for a faang and needing ten million dollars to retire oh my god what if i start liking prop13 when im old v_v
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Nov 7, 2021 00:46
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Rocko Bonaparte posted:Post-late-stage capitalism insurance company hitmen. They will fit your 85-year-old rear end in around all the people with lifetime warranties they have to kill. hey hey hey thats just tontine hitmen, tontine hitmen were a centuries old tradition before they banned tontines (they effectively unbanned tontines a bit back)
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Nov 7, 2021 04:09
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Achmed Jones posted:im not seeing the connection between not working for a faang and needing ten million dollars to retire If you are used to having massive income, you will find it easy to live off little once you retire??? I've got nothing
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Nov 7, 2021 08:25
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Achmed Jones posted:im not seeing the connection between not working for a faang and needing ten million dollars to retire I'll put it a different way. What do you think your (or the average MANGA employee itt) retirement fund looks like? I can tell you for an absolute certainty that mine isn't that large. And because we're a single income household it has to cover 2 people. That's current state, no plans to retire early. In thinking about early retirement, I said 10 million to retire at 40 and feel comfortable with it. Note that comfort here doesn't just mean that I've done a bunch of spreadsheets on viability and am confident that the math works out. A big chunk of it is that I'm acutely aware of how expensive retirement can be and how fast tech moves and the unknowns there cause me enough anxiety that I'd need a significant buffer to feel ok with paying for 45 or so years of my family's life without active income. I might feel more comfortable with early retirement on lower numbers if I cleared 300k a year and my family had a second income and significantly greater savings but I don't and we don't and I'm not confident it would be easy to rejoin the workforce after a period of retirement if something went wrong. Not sure why I'm the target of ire here. All I said is I think I'd need a lot to retire early given my specific situation.
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Nov 7, 2021 13:48
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Blinkz0rz posted:Not sure why I'm the target of ire here. All I said is I think I'd need a lot to retire early given my specific situation. Some people want to retire early, don't have $10mm, and are worried you see something they've missed in their planning.
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Nov 7, 2021 15:44
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pokeyman posted:Some people want to retire early, don't have $10mm, and are worried you see something they've missed in their planning. There's nothing to worry about with not having 10 million, it's a number that's thrown out wildly with zero planning. There's worry to be had with 1, 2, or even 5 million. Beyond that is the anxious hand wringing that comes with not knowing what the future will bring, or being of a class and lifestyle that I've not known and have no relation to aside from people I've worked with in tech. Needing 300k a year to live is so disconnected from anything I know that it doesn't even register biceps crimes fucked around with this message at 16:14 on Nov 7, 2021 |
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Nov 7, 2021 16:05
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gay_crimes posted:There's nothing to worry about with not having 10 million, it's a number that's thrown out wildly with zero planning. There's worry to be had with 1, 2, or even 5 million. Beyond that is the anxious hand wringing that comes with not knowing what the future will bring, or being of a class and lifestyle that I've not known and have no relation to aside from people I've worked with in tech I mean, I'd argue anyone who is seriously thinking about early retirement is of that class and lifestyle even if they think they aren't.
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Nov 7, 2021 16:14
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gay_crimes posted:There's nothing to worry about with not having 10 million, it's a number that's thrown out wildly with zero planning. There's worry to be had with 1, 2, or even 5 million. Beyond that is the anxious hand wringing that comes with not knowing what the future will bring, or being of a class and lifestyle that I've not known and have no relation to aside from people I've worked with in tech. Needing 300k a year to live is so disconnected from anything I know that it doesn't even register OP asked where the ire was coming from. If you're not angry then you're not part of the ire!
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Nov 7, 2021 16:18
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gay_crimes posted:There's nothing to worry about with not having 10 million, it's a number that's thrown out wildly with zero planning. There's worry to be had with 1, 2, or even 5 million. Beyond that is the anxious hand wringing that comes with not knowing what the future will bring, or being of a class and lifestyle that I've not known and have no relation to aside from people I've worked with in tech. Needing 300k a year to live is so disconnected from anything I know that it doesn't even register
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Nov 7, 2021 16:19
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Blinkz0rz posted:I mean, I'd argue anyone who is seriously thinking about early retirement is of that class and lifestyle even if they think they aren't. If you have a chance at retiring at all you're doing pretty well.
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Nov 7, 2021 16:21
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I'm planning to retire on around £1million. But in the UK medical expenses arnt a thing you need to worry about.
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Nov 7, 2021 16:33
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ultrafilter posted:If you have a chance at retiring at all you're doing pretty well. 100%
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Nov 7, 2021 16:37
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ultrafilter posted:If you have a chance at retiring at all you're doing pretty well. Y'all need some socialism
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Nov 7, 2021 18:18
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Blinkz0rz posted:I'll put it a different way. What do you think your (or the average MANGA employee itt) retirement fund looks like? I can tell you for an absolute certainty that mine isn't that large. And because we're a single income household it has to cover 2 people. That's current state, no plans to retire early. lol you think i have a fat retirement because i've spent two years at google. i'm not going to spray my financials all over the forums, but yeah you're wrong and it's funny quote:I might feel more comfortable with early retirement on lower numbers if I cleared 300k a year quote:significantly greater savings quote:Not sure why I'm the target of ire here. All I said is I think I'd need a lot to retire early given my specific situation. its ok, humans aren't expected to understand draconic ways  i love you this is all in good fun btw. but you are a dragon now. like i said, not my decision, it's just how it is. fwiw i probably won't be able to retire early, either, but it's not because i'll only have nine million united states dollars in the bank
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Nov 7, 2021 18:46
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I'd just like to understand how Blink plans to invest and what their expenses are at a finer level, not anything in terms of personal financials but yeah 10 mil is an insane amount even in SF/NYC.
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Nov 7, 2021 18:48
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My expenses right now are pretty reasonable but I'm the eldest child and so is my wife so we have 4 parents between us that will need likely need a bunch of extra care in the next 5-10 years. We also just bought a house. We also have a 5 1/2 year old. This stuff adds up. Do I expect to spend exactly 10 million over the next 45 years regardless of what I earn? Probably not lol. That's a bananas sum of money. However, 45 years is also a long time, longer than most folks in this thread have been alive much less working and this being America ityool 2021 I don't have high hopes for anything better than the worst case when it comes to how much money I'll need to have to keep my family safe and comfortable. But again, I'm a risk-averse person. Most people would look at my finances and probably call me an idiot for keeping so much cash and focusing on long-term investments so 
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Nov 7, 2021 19:04
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long-term investments are inherently riskier ones, do you mean short term investments
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Nov 7, 2021 19:39
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God damnit bob i can't tell when you're trolling and not anymore
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Nov 7, 2021 19:44
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