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Shammypants posted:It's going to be another misplay to have this weird downtrodden attitude for two weeks if the 1.8T BBB passes, isn't it? Like people are going to look at you side eyed and say, oh yea remember when you were acting like a weirdo about it not passing for two weeks and then disappeared from the thread for a while? I like to avoid self owns usually. Hey I'll be happy if I'm wrong. Up until Friday I thought the BBB had a good shot because it seemed like the CPC were willing to hold firm and play hardball to get what they want just like the conservative Dems always do. I just don't see any reason for Pelosi and Biden to pull shenanigans and force the CPC to cave like this if they still expected to go through with the deal anyway. If they were gonna hold up their end of the bargain they'd just do it rather than pull this. I guess we'll see in a few weeks who was posting self-owns
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Nov 7, 2021 19:37
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Majorian posted:I don't think the evidence supports this; in the 2020 election, for example, voters listed the economy and health care as their top two issues. Indeed, the economy has been the number one issue for voters since 2004. (it tied with "jobs" that year) Those polls don't include negative partisanship as an option. I'd point to the steady lowering of the favorability ratings of candidates who get elected. In the 2016 election there is actually some quantitative support for turnout being at leased correlated t o loathing of the other party: https://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2016/06/06-22-16-Partisanship-and-animosity-release.pdf
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Nov 7, 2021 19:38
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Sarcastr0 posted:Those polls don't include negative partisanship as an option. It's not like negative partisanship and perceived material concerns are mutually exclusive, though. A lot of poor Republicans do genuinely believe that the Democrats are going to raise their taxes, take away their jobs, etc, regardless of who the Democrat in question is. e: and to be 100% crystal clear to everyone, I'm not suggesting that the Dems try to win over those voters, through economic populism or otherwise. Economic populist appeals should be geared towards turning out working-class (predominantly POC and/or non-cis-male) people who don't vote, regularly or at all. Majorian fucked around with this message at 19:55 on Nov 7, 2021 |
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Nov 7, 2021 19:44
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Valentin posted:I mean I probably wouldn't call it anything but "posting" seems like a fine thing to call it? The premise that people are here posting to impress goons with their political acumen and not just to satisfy whatever feelings they're feeling at the time seems like a stretch to me, but rock on. Maybe I'm the only fool not maintaining goonpredictions.xlsx It's ok, I imagine there will be an immediate windmill slam turn to "they'll never pass a voting rights bill before 2022" after BBB passes anyway. Clear as crystal.
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Nov 7, 2021 19:54
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socialsecurity posted:No I'm not as I don't feel Biden is doing enough to push this along and I feel in general we put too much blame and credit on the president for things congress does. ok fair enough then
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Nov 7, 2021 20:07
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Sarcastr0 posted:This assumes SA posters are in any way like the larger body of voters generally. I was thinking that said posters were talking about Democratic party strategy towards the electorate, not strictly about themselves as voters. small butter posted:It's obviously not as simple as this. If it were, Republicans would lose every single election they run in and Bernie would be in the White House. No, it really is that simple for the margins that we are talking about. It's not those voters that you are after in the first place. It is energizing your own voting pool, and getting people that don't vote currently. That is why I said YOUR VOTERS in my previous post. Also, it is not promising that mobilizes your voters, it is actually delivering your promises and making them want more. Therefore, If you materially better the lives of your voters, your voters are going to vote for you again. You are elected to serve your people. Do it and you will get re-elected. Dante80 fucked around with this message at 20:18 on Nov 7, 2021 |
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Nov 7, 2021 20:11
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Shammypants posted:It's going to be another misplay to have this weird downtrodden attitude for two weeks if the 1.8T BBB passes, isn't it? Like people are going to look at you side eyed and say, oh yea remember when you were acting like a weirdo about it not passing for two weeks and then disappeared from the thread for a while? I like to avoid self owns usually. Give me the 3.5 trillion bill. Or the 6 trillion bill. Or a 10 trillion bill. Then spend the next 50 years saying "Oh, rich want a tax cut? How will we pay for it? Warmongers want a war to exploit resources and people for their bloodlust? How will we pay for it?" etc.
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Nov 7, 2021 20:34
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VitalSigns posted:Hey I'll be happy if I'm wrong. Up until Friday I thought the BBB had a good shot because it seemed like the CPC were willing to hold firm and play hardball to get what they want just like the conservative Dems always do. Luckily if you call them out on it later you'll likely get put on probation for it so they don't have to worry
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Nov 7, 2021 20:39
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As always, The Onion remains painfully insightful.
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Nov 7, 2021 20:39
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Shammypants posted:It's ok, I imagine there will be an immediate windmill slam turn to "they'll never pass a voting rights bill before 2022" after BBB passes anyway. Clear as crystal. lol this is such a weird series of posts considering some of the absolutely absurd predictions Biden boosters have made in this thread and its predecessors within the last year that haven't proven anywhere close to true. Nobody ever eats crow about anything, everyone moves on, there is no damage to the Posting Brands
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Nov 7, 2021 21:11
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Shammypants posted:Everyone in this thread and CSPAM for that matter has a reputation based on how right they've been, the consistency of their views and how correct their predictions have come to be. is there like a big master chart somewhere that tracks who is currently winning the good opinion war? are there brackets like March Madness? (being wrong is neither illegal nor immoral) Shammypants posted:It's going to be another misplay to have this weird downtrodden attitude for two weeks if the 1.8T BBB passes, isn't it? Like people are going to look at you side eyed and say, oh yea remember when you were acting like a weirdo about it not passing for two weeks and then disappeared from the thread for a while? I like to avoid self owns usually. this is a really weird way to think about posting! it's not a game. people don't post here to win internet points; if they were, they'd be posting on Reddit where it actually tracks your score. also, when i think of self-owns, i think of groverhaus or that guy who poo poo in his sink or just everything about Morally Inept, not lukewarm bad takes in D&D.
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Nov 7, 2021 21:54
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Vorik posted:A poll where republicans say the opposite of democrats, regardless of facts and reality? You've really got your finger on the pulse of America. Looking forward to Dems winning in '22 & '24 with 34 percent of the vote.  Here's a new Suffolk poll that has even fewer voters thinking that B3 will change their lives for the better than the Emerson poll: quote:Americans overwhelmingly support the infrastructure bill Biden is about to sign, but they are split on the more expensive and further-reaching "Build Back Better" act being debated in Congress. Only one in four say the bill's provisions would help them and their families. Crosstabs aren't out yet, so it's possible that 75 percent of the respondents were GOP voters claiming the opposite of "facts and reality," but I kind of doubt it.
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Nov 7, 2021 22:02
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Willa Rogers posted:Looking forward to Dems winning in '22 & '24 with 34 percent of the vote. quote:Americans are closely divided on the "Build Back Better" act pressed by congressional Democrats. In the poll, 47% support the $1.85 trillion bill; 44% oppose it. The sweeping measure includes more than $500 billion in climate change and clean energy funding. It would establish pre-K for all 3- and 4-year-olds; extend the child tax credit for one year; expand Medicaid coverage in some states; add hearing coverage to Medicare; and finance affordable housing programs. Most people support it, but only 1 in 4 think it will help them? That's a messaging problem that can be resolved by, messaging. Economic recovery measures like GDP and consistent jobs report will help with that naturally. EDIT- Some of that lack of support comes from people thinking it isn't big enough. None of the opposition to it comes from any similar skew (well, I guess straight up being a chud and opposing anything they might even like counts). Shammypants fucked around with this message at 22:19 on Nov 7, 2021 |
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Nov 7, 2021 22:11
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Shammypants posted:Yea, we're in a weird situation where republicans can run on stopping culture war issues that aren't even occurring and win elections, and democrats need to broadly repair the country during an unprecedented global event in order to campaign and win. This idea of winning elections by materially improving people's lives sounds good on paper but it surely wasn't the driving issue in Virginia- it was revenge, craziness at schools, craziness over covid vaccinations and mask mandates etc. It wasn't the driving issue in Virginia because nobody was actually campaigning on it. It was just Crazy poo poo vs I'm Not That Guy
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Nov 7, 2021 22:16
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Shammypants posted:Most people support it, but only 1 in 4 think it will help them? That's a messaging problem that can be resolved by, messaging. Economic recovery measures like GDP and consistent jobs report will help with that naturally. EDIT- Some of that lack of support comes from people thinking it isn't big enough. None of the opposition to it comes from any similar skew (well, I guess straight up being a chud and opposing anything they might even like counts). If there is one thing Dems are known for, it's messaging. In other news, I just saw there there is a new Survey USA poll today with Biden and Kamala polling at 38% and 28% respectively but I don't know how to read polling tea leaves so I'll leave that to better people.
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Nov 7, 2021 22:29
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BetterToRuleInHell posted:If there is one thing Dems are known for, it's messaging. It really varies. HOPE elected the first Black President. Democrats are not doomed to eternal messaging deficiency out of hand.
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Nov 7, 2021 22:31
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BetterToRuleInHell posted:If there is one thing Dems are known for, it's messaging. Biden's polling dropped severely after the Afghanistan pullout in August, a decision that most here considered "the best of bad options" and expressed respect for his sticking to ending the occupation over the populist option. I wouldn't read too much into public polls of the administration.
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Nov 7, 2021 22:33
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BetterToRuleInHell posted:If there is one thing Dems are known for, it's messaging. Ok and that’s probably without infrastructure and BBB, so who knows.
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Nov 7, 2021 22:42
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I doubt the Afghanistan pullout is still negatively affecting Biden's approval ratings, unless Trump-to-Biden voters were looking for an excuse to switch back to voting GOP. I'm also skeptical of the theory that the media suddenly & overwhelmingly became hostile to Biden after the pullout on a continuing basis. I'm more baffled by the precipitous drop in Biden's ratings on handling the economy now that we're in the fifth month of money being given to parents. Sure, the steepest drops in economic approvals have been among notoriously fickle independent voters, but are none of them parents getting those tax refunds upfront? (Also, speaking of predictions, I predict that even though not all of the child tax credits are being distributed upfront, a measurable percentage of voters will still complain that their 2021 refunds are smaller than they expected, as they did when Trump front-loaded the refunds by changing payroll tables so people got the money throughout the year.)
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Nov 7, 2021 22:44
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What I find strange about trying to explain polls, or maybe the effort to soften the polling's impact, is why it matters when midterms are down the road. Let's just say there is a come to Jesus moment in Congress and everyone miraculously votes to pass everything Biden promised...would that really change things for Dems worried about their seats? All these projects, all this funding, it takes time to get in motion, and practically we are not going to see that anytime soon even under the best circumstances. It would seem to me that congressional Dems' fates are already sealed without any positive news coming from the BBB plans. Please do not take this to mean I'm lol Dems or nothing matters, I'm genuinely interested in how polling break down but how it affects near term problem seems less consequential.
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Nov 7, 2021 22:57
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How are u posted:It really varies. HOPE elected the first Black President. Democrats are not doomed to eternal messaging deficiency out of hand. Unfortunately the guy in the white House is the old racist who they used to make the first black president palatable to racists. Literally the guy they used to go "But if you don't like hope we still have something for you"
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Nov 7, 2021 22:58
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Shammypants posted:Yea, we're in a weird situation where republicans can run on stopping culture war issues that aren't even occurring and win elections, and democrats need to broadly repair the country during an unprecedented global event in order to campaign and win. This idea of winning elections by materially improving people's lives sounds good on paper but it surely wasn't the driving issue in Virginia- it was revenge, craziness at schools, craziness over covid vaccinations and mask mandates etc. Actually the Democrat ran on what you suggested and lost. The actual solution is not to engage in a culture war and vote for popular things that people like and remind people the Republicans want to cut them
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Nov 7, 2021 23:04
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I think the state of the pandemic is going to have more to do with the midterms than anything else.
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Nov 7, 2021 23:07
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Speaking of things which are completely and utterly predictable... https://twitter.com/TPM/status/1457421894064480264 quote:Gottheimer said that Democrats plan to move forward with BBB because he expects it to meet moderates’ expectations, before reiterating the need for assurance that the bill is “fiscally responsible and paid for.” This makes me think they're going to whittle the BBB down to a level that we didn't think possible and then pass it and declare victory. I guess we'll see if I'm right on that. Majorian fucked around with this message at 23:16 on Nov 7, 2021 |
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Nov 7, 2021 23:14
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Let’s just get this straight, you don’t get to 35% approval polls unless democrats are unhappy with what you’re doing and that is clearly not passing legislation. In this case specific legislation.
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Nov 7, 2021 23:20
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Willa Rogers posted:I doubt the Afghanistan pullout is still negatively affecting Biden's approval ratings I think it is in the sense that it outraged our bloodthirsty media apparatus, and now they're reporting critically instead of manufacturing consent for him. And his entire candidacy was based on the media manufacturing consent for him in the primaries and then the general so welp They're hoping a reasonable Republican will run against him in 2024
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Nov 7, 2021 23:21
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I dunno; when I see WH talking points still effectively flowing downward verbatim through cable news, and then through the politically aware like on this forum, I don't see a hostile media reporting critically on the administration. Why McAuliffe's Loss Is Actually Good News for Dems seemed to be this week's trope from the WH Opposite World that was propagated by media & administration hacks & flacks.
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Nov 7, 2021 23:31
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Majorian posted:This makes me think they're going to whittle the BBB down to a level that we didn't think possible and then pass it and declare victory. I guess we'll see if I'm right on that. According to Willa's poll only 25% of Americans even think BBB will help them period, so who even gives a poo poo. All the loving garment rending and exulting about how Dems are shooting themselves in the foot by whittling down the bill and the people it's supposed to help don't even want it. And don't tell me its because of cuts, do you think anyone responding to that poll even knows what's supposed to be in build back better other than the vague 6o'clock news summary of "Biden's social and climate spending agenda?" All any idiot in this country cares about is the vague reality-free FEELING they have about whether things are going well or not, which is mostly dictated to them by their social media algorithm. Why should I believ even the original 6 trillion version would mean anything different at this point? Every day just makes it look more and more like Facebook killed the human race.
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Nov 7, 2021 23:33
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Sanguinia posted:According to Willa's poll only 25% of Americans even think BBB will help them period, so who even gives a poo poo. All the loving garment rending and exulting about how Dems are shooting themselves in the foot by whittling down the bill and the people it's supposed to help don't even want it. And don't tell me its because of cuts, do you think anyone responding to that poll even knows what's supposed to be in build back better other than the vague 6o'clock news summary of "Biden's social and climate spending agenda?" This is just doomer depression fueled by an assumption everyone is just an idiot compared to you. I don't see how this is in any way productive political discussion. This is cspam posting.
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Nov 7, 2021 23:40
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Sanguinia posted:According to Willa's poll only 25% of Americans even think BBB will help them period, so who even gives a poo poo. All the loving garment rending and exulting about how Dems are shooting themselves in the foot by whittling down the bill and the people it's supposed to help don't even want it. And don't tell me its because of cuts, do you think anyone responding to that poll even knows what's supposed to be in build back better other than the vague 6o'clock news summary of "Biden's social and climate spending agenda?" I mean, they may not know/care about the cuts to the original legislation, but they're certainly going to have opinions about whether or not their lives and financial prospects have improved under the Biden Administration eleven months from now. The cuts to the legislation make it less likely that they will answer "yes, things have improved" by the time the midterms come up. The fact that most Americans aren't currently clued in enough to realize how the BBB could benefit them is kind of immaterial. A big enough bill could improve most voters' lives noticeably, and help the Dems retain control of the government. This bill probably won't, though, particularly if it continues to get slashed to ribbons.
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Nov 7, 2021 23:50
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How are u posted:Things like Medicare and medicaid and TANF and such are all social spending. I'm pretty sure they have been in existence during your lifetime. I'd like if you didn't troll my wallet. I know what I've received and what I haven't and there's barely anything.
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Nov 7, 2021 23:54
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Willa Rogers posted:I dunno; when I see WH talking points still effectively flowing downward verbatim through cable news, and then through the politically aware like on this forum, I don't see a hostile media reporting critically on the administration. It's not super hostile, access journalism is still king after all, but it's definitely not 24/7 fawning like it was pre-pullout
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Nov 7, 2021 23:57
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I mean, just a couple months ago we were told the bill would include 12 weeks of paid time off, dental care for Medicare recipients, meaningful drug-price controls, and a public option as an alternative to crappy obamacare plans. You can't really blame voters for not getting excited about tax cuts for richies & corporate welfare for Comcast & Blue Cross, especially after they were promised the sun & the moon & the stars and then end up with a Maxwell Smart "would you believe..." joke.
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Nov 7, 2021 23:58
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Victory Position posted:I'd like if you didn't troll my wallet. I know what I've received and what I haven't and there's barely anything. You made an entirely 100% false claim. quote:It took two years and a proper tax agency to get the only "social spending" the government has ever done in my lifetime, and it's not even the whole thing. The government has done tons of social spending in your lifetime. I've been on Medicaid multiple times over the last 10 years, it has quite literally saved my life. That is social spending. I recognize that you don't think that we are doing enough social spending. I agree with you completely. But we can talk about things like social spending in a fact-based way and not resort to worthless hyperbole. There are other forums where you can just post your feelings regardless of the facts and that's A-OK.
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Nov 8, 2021 00:05
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Sanguinia posted:According to Willa's poll only 25% of Americans even think BBB will help them period, so who even gives a poo poo. All the loving garment rending and exulting about how Dems are shooting themselves in the foot by whittling down the bill and the people it's supposed to help don't even want it. And don't tell me its because of cuts, do you think anyone responding to that poll even knows what's supposed to be in build back better other than the vague 6o'clock news summary of "Biden's social and climate spending agenda?" The common thought that Dems just need to pass huge spending bills and all of a sudden Americans would turn leftist is hilariously out of touch. Look at VA. Last year I saw so many leftists screeching about "how dare parents want to send their kids to school" and "how dare people want to get back to normal". That single issue, schools, is what sunk Dems in VA and also made such a massive dent in NJ's race.
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Nov 8, 2021 00:23
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Vorik posted:The common thought that Dems just need to pass huge spending bills and all of a sudden Americans would turn leftist is hilariously out of touch. Look at VA. Last year I saw so many leftists screeching about "how dare parents want to send their kids to school" and "how dare people want to get back to normal". That single issue, schools, is what sunk Dems in VA and also made such a massive dent in NJ's race. Do you have any links to those leftists? Any evidence?
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Nov 8, 2021 00:29
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Vorik posted:The common thought that Dems just need to pass huge spending bills and all of a sudden Americans would turn leftist is hilariously out of touch. Look at VA. Last year I saw so many leftists screeching about "how dare parents want to send their kids to school" and "how dare people want to get back to normal". That single issue, schools, is what sunk Dems in VA and also made such a massive dent in NJ's race. This is an...interesting way to frame peoples' objections with forcing kids back into crowds in the middle of a pandemic. I'm not sure whether the volume of the posts was ever implied or relevant, you'll have to specify where the "screeching" took place for me. This framing also implies that the school issue resonated so strongly that it swung the entire election, rather than it being the only issue raised because the other candidate ran on nothing except Not That.
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Nov 8, 2021 00:51
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Yinlock posted:This is an...interesting way to frame peoples' objections with forcing kids back into crowds in the middle of a pandemic. I'm not sure whether the volume of the posts was ever implied or relevant, you'll have to specify where the "screeching" took place for me. The people voting against the dems wasn't because they were being forced back to school, it was because masks were being mandated, also CRT.
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Nov 8, 2021 00:59
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Willa Rogers posted:I'm more baffled by the precipitous drop in Biden's ratings on handling the economy now that we're in the fifth month of money being given to parents. Sure, the steepest drops in economic approvals have been among notoriously fickle independent voters, but are none of them parents getting those tax refunds upfront? Are you being facetious or are you genuinely puzzled? Sometimes I think you phrase questions like this because you don't believe that certain people are getting money (and I figured you had a good basis for that like bureaucracy keeping it from getting to people who didn't have to file tax returns or something like that).
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Nov 8, 2021 00:59
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socialsecurity posted:The people voting against the dems wasn't because they were being forced back to school, it was because masks were being mandated, also CRT. They specified "leftists last year" and I provided a reason why leftists were not huge fans of trying to dump kids back into school ASAP. I dunno about the right, they were probably mad about masks and the fact that schools aren't actively whipping children or whatever. e: ARE SCHOOLS has been a pet issue of the right for forever, they are constantly convinced that schools are a tool of communist indoctrination(meanwhile hard-right schooling is just 90% "Obedience is good. Obedience makes you happy."). If dems are suddenly losing to it that's not a sign that it's the biggest issue of our times, it means that Dems are unable or unwilling to put forward something more compelling which is itself worrying. Yinlock fucked around with this message at 01:15 on Nov 8, 2021 |
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Nov 8, 2021 01:05
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