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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Any by your own logic, if China were suffering an enormous outbreak with millions of them dead right now.. wouldn't your exact argument apply to the United States? That the US "can't live with the outbreak" and must accept it will find a way in and cause mass death? Why does that argument only apply to China right now and not the US in your fictional China outbreak scenario?
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Nov 16, 2021 20:13
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I'm sorry should China have used their authoritarian powers to eradicate covid or should they open er up and take a few million casualties on the chin in case I want to go tour the Forbidden Palace and I don't want to be BORED in a HOTEL ROOM for two weeks first okay!!!!
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Nov 16, 2021 20:17
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mod sassinator posted:Any by your own logic, if China were suffering an enormous outbreak with millions of them dead right now.. wouldn't your exact argument apply to the United States? That the US "can't live with the outbreak" and must accept it will find a way in and cause mass death? China isn't going to face mass deaths, because they will pretty easily get to 90%+ vaccination rate if they're not there already, and the vaccines are miracles and prevent mass death. The vaccinated are not the ones doing the mass-dying across the world or in the US. e: vital signs I've had you on ignore for years and years so if you are responding to me please know I will not be reading it. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 16, 2021 20:19
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How are u posted:I don't think a mandatory weeks-long quarantine to enter the nation is "moving on", particularly. Why do you think China gives a single flying gently caress about making people quarantine to enter? They’d probably be fine doing it forever even if COVID went away. China really cares very little about being convenient for foreigners (or even for its citizens, for that matter—e.g., every single subway entrance in China makes you scan your bags through a machine and go through a metal detector like you’re going through airport security, with manned guard stations). And regarding mass mandatory lockdowns, yes, that’s true in places, but for most places life is going on like it was before COVID but with people wearing masks. China is back to normal for most already. It’s just their normal is a normal that doesn’t involve the amounts of mass suffering and death due to COVID the west has decided to accept. If we’re speculating as to why they’ve so aggressively pursued zero COVID, my guess is that China doesn’t want to fall into a situation where a high-ranking party official (or even Xi himself) gets COVID and makes the state look weak, or a huge outbreak occurs to the same effect, which is certain to happen in a non-zero COVID China at some point. I suspect it has very little to do with altruism and valuing human life, but a lot to do with the fact that they prioritize projecting the strength of the state over protecting the short term finances of CEOs, unlike most of the rest of the world. As soon as they decide to “live with COVID,” it’s a matter of time before the party looks incompetent and weak in a way that’s hard to cover up. And that won’t do at all.
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Nov 16, 2021 20:24
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So let me get this straight because there are some pretty large leaps in logic I question here. This is why you propose we are currently experiencing a mass death of a million Americans or more, correct? - China saw an outbreak of a novel coronavirus in 2019. - China decided to allow the outbreak to escape their shores and infect the rest of the world. - China accepted that they could both: > Invent a cure for the novel pathogen > Deliver said cure to the pathogen across their entire country in less than 24 months. - China accepted that the pathogen they unleashed would be impossible to keep off their shores and that the protective layer they rolled out would prevent mass casualties. I don't understand how any country could be playing 5D chess like this and winning. Is not a simpler explanation that China and Chinese citizens decided that locking down to stop the virus was the appropriate choice and all chose to live with those mitigations until the virus was eradicated?
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Nov 16, 2021 20:25
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From a rational perspective it makes zero sense for China to care more if foreign tourists are bored in quarantine than about millions of deaths of their own people, even from a purely cynical perspective of wanting to keep the support of the population to stay in power. But Americans are mostly incapable of viewing the world from any perspective other than customer service and (their own) personal convenience so yeah they think a few million Chinese ought to die for their vacations and they assume China can only deny reality for so long and eventually they will give in and let her rip because lord help me I will call the manager if I have to wait one more day to see the clay statues this is RIDICULOUS!
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Nov 16, 2021 20:30
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VitalSigns posted:From a rational perspective it makes zero sense for China to care more if foreign tourists are bored in quarantine than about millions of deaths of their own people, even from a purely cynical perspective of wanting to keep the support of the population to stay in power. Is the idea here that all travel is vacations? When you hear about US immigration issues are you just reading that as a bunch of guys on vacations being fussy?
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Nov 16, 2021 20:44
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Well I certainly don't see why a short quarantine is a problem for immigration, if you're immigrating permanently you don't have the same time constraints as a tourist. Especially in comparison to the alternative (millions of deaths and billions in economic damage from letting her rip) Also a two-week quarantine in a hotel for a pandemic is a lot more reasonable than how the US is treating its "immigration issues"
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Nov 16, 2021 20:56
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no lube so what posted:Being pragmatic is not doom. To address some of these justaskingquestions, just in case you're actually as stupid as you appear and are genuinely seeking enlightenment: SARS-CoV-2 hasn't become more deadly, only more transmissable. In fact CFR among the unvaccinated is falling as we understand how to treat serious COVID (note - if you're gonna try and sound like you have special knowledge which you are attempting to bring us to via the Socratic method, at least learn the difference between the virus and the disease it causes) Breakthrough cases are indeed going up. They were at zero, more or less, this time last year, and are only going to increase as the amount of vaccinated people go up. The proportion of breakout cases is increasing, from which we can conclude that immunity among the vaccinated is waning, but crucially both AZ and Pfizer vaccines seem to be continuing to give *excellent* protection against serious illness and death. Uptake of each successive dose will indeed be lower because it's hard to give more second doses than first doses. However the amount of people failing to get second doses, at least in the UK, is *tiny* - considerably less than 1% (it's hard to put an absolutely exact number on because not everyone goes through the NHS system properly). This is effectively a rounding error. Neither Israel nor Iceland have been vaccinating children until very recently (and there's a whole other debate to be had about that, the answers to which won't become clear for at least another six months) and guess what age range the vast majority of their cases are in? Herd immunity happens when the R0 - the amount of people an infected person goes on to infect - falls below 1 without NPIs. This is not an overnight thing; when the needle hits arm number 5,800,869,420 an ACHIEVEMENT UNLOCKED sign doesn't suddenly appear in the sky. It will be a slow and gradual decline, punctuated by local flareups. It's entirely possible that between the transmissibility of Delta and the waning effectiveness of vaccination that it can't be reached, but right now there's nothing to suggest this is the case, and (*extremely* tentative) evidence that in fact between vaccination and infection that some places are hovering around there. To give you a few justaskingquestions to mull on: - What's the cause of the falling case rate in the UK, where NPIs have basically been abandoned, and why is the fall fastest in the most densely-populated areas, which previously had the highest rates? - What will be the effect of the vaccination of children on superspreader events, and what will that do to the wider R0? - Most important of all, if your view is correct, then... what? What's the outcome? Say it out loud what you think the actual trajectory is and why, don't weasel around with this smug poo poo.
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Nov 16, 2021 20:59
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VitalSigns posted:Well I certainly don't see why a short quarantine is a problem for immigration, if you're immigrating permanently you don't have the same time constraints as a tourist. Especially in comparison to the alternative (millions of deaths and billions in economic damage from letting her rip) The only two sorts of travel: fun vacations and permanent immigration.
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Nov 16, 2021 21:00
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:The only two sorts of travel: fun vacations and permanent immigration. They're not and you brought up immigration not me but ok if you have a point about a reason for travel that should be exempt from quarantine feel free to make that case instead of doing whatever this is
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Nov 16, 2021 21:03
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goddamnedtwisto posted:To give you a few justaskingquestions to mull on: Are you reading incorrect data or perhaps have a faulty view of what's happening? Here's the average case rate in the UK for the last few months:  This does not appear to be falling, in either the micro level of last week or macro level of months.  https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases
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Nov 16, 2021 21:07
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no lube so what posted:Being pragmatic is not doom. Covid hasn't evolved to become more deadly and deaths are almost entirely driven by the unvaxxed, what are you even on about? It has evolved to be more contagious, and I am personally of the belief that we currently are not, nor have we ever been, as a society, doing enough to stop the spread of covid. But I still can be aware that as a vaxxed person my likelihood of dying of covid isn't a realistic fear to have, nor am I going to promote falsehoods like "it's getting more deadly" or jumping to the worst possible conclusions about "long covid" while it's still entirely contentious and the data isn't settled. The best hope we have in the US is for a combination of government and capital vaccine mandates to essentially turn anti-vaxxers into societal pariahs, and that sucks a tremendous amount of poo poo tbh. But without a time machine to prevent the rise of the largely right wing backed anti-vax movement or the existence of Murdoch media in general, I don't honestly see how the US could do better.
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Nov 16, 2021 21:38
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mod sassinator posted:Are you reading incorrect data or perhaps have a faulty view of what's happening? Here's the average case rate in the UK for the last few months: I've no idea where they get their data from, the actual UK government site shows this:  Turns out I was on slightly old data, there has been an uptick in the last week, but that's following a 25% drop in the month before that. This *may* be an artifact of a sudden upswing in testing, although that in turn might be due to an upswing in symptomatic cases (both of COVID and of colds and flu) as a result of Halloween and Bonfire Night parties. The positivity rate has actually fallen very slightly over that time which *suggests* artifact but only very weakly. The point still stands that with no lockdown, dogshit adherence to NPIs, and rushing into autumn, cases were dropping, and dropping consistently. Of course if this uptick continues then it's back to the drawing board but I'd still be interested in hearing theories as to what caused the drop.
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Nov 16, 2021 22:01
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mod sassinator posted:Are you reading incorrect data or perhaps have a faulty view of what's happening? Here's the average case rate in the UK for the last few months: The cases has been started to fall until a few days ago when they picked up again from the return to school, and the old data was been reported in the BBC with a delay, which may be where the misaprehension that they were falling now comes from. So, I think the context here is that the level of cases are similar now to last November, except last November we were in a lockdown with nothing open and work from home ordered, and this November pretty much everything is open as it was in 2019. Some people mask up for a bit in shops, but that's pretty much the only place I ever seen them, and even mass events are open. The progression is despite this, the caseload is no higher than when we were in lockdown, because of the vaccines. Now, digging into the data deeper, the peeks in the recent case are pretty much timed with term-time at schools, because the biggest increase comes from school kids at the moment who haven't been administered the vaccine. There's also some suggestion that the erosion of protection against symptoms decreasing over time from the 2nd dose is pretty much keeping pace with the effect of people who are infected getting temporary immunity through it, which is why the numbers seem to be pretty stable since full opening in June. So, the vaccine at the moment isn't good enough to drop cases completely in an environment where everything is currently open... however, the 3rd dose is increasing the effeciency above even where it was under the 2nd dose, so there is a potential that once that has gone through the age groups, then the limits will be high enough to start to decrease the cases.
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Nov 16, 2021 22:04
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mod sassinator posted:So let me get this straight because there are some pretty large leaps in logic I question here. This is why you propose we are currently experiencing a mass death of a million Americans or more, correct? Ok I don't have a dog in this fight but I hate seeing the thread shitted up by people talking past each other. So assuming I'm not the idiot here, the quoted post is in response to the discussion that started with this: How are u posted:If the CCP had accepted that there was a novel outbreak in Wuhan in 2019 instead of trying to cover it up and used their totalitarian powers to quash it with strict quarantines then perhaps it never would have left China in the first place, and the entire world would be better off. This has no connection to How are u's opinion that China will have to learn to live with the virus like the rest of the world. They are positing, rightly or wrongly, that China could have locked down harder and faster (in 2019), and thus prevented Covid from escaping their shores. I don't recall seeing any comment that would suggest How are u thinks China did this as part of a master plan, they just point to it as a demonstrable leadership fuckup.
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Nov 16, 2021 22:38
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Professor Beetus posted:Delta is contagious but isn't more deadly. Where are you reading this? This CDC page on the Delta variant says: quote:Some data suggest the Delta variant might cause more severe illness than previous variants in unvaccinated people. In two different studies from Canada and Scotland, patients infected with the Delta variant were more likely to be hospitalized than patients infected with Alpha or the original virus that causes COVID-19. Even so, the vast majority of hospitalization and death caused by COVID-19 are in unvaccinated people. The citations are not separately noted in the text but based on location and content I believe are the following: Fisman DN, Tuite AR. Progressive Increase in Virulence of Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Ontario, Canada. medRxiv. 2021 Jul 12; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.05.21260050 Sheikh A, McMenamin J, Taylor B, Robertson C. SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Scotland: demographics, risk of hospital admission, and vaccine effectiveness. The Lancet. 2021;397(10293):2461-2462. doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01358-1
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Nov 16, 2021 23:02
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Platystemon posted:Where are you reading this? "Some data suggests, might" does not mean that delta has become Captain Trips, and the actual death statistics don't seem to support that it's significantly more deadly, nor does it make it a certainty that further variants will be even more deadly, which is what the poster I quoted seemed to be implying. Again, I think it's important to take Covid seriously and make every effort you can not to get it, but misrepresenting data and presenting pre-prints like the final word isn't all that helpful.
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Nov 16, 2021 23:11
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Who said anything about preprints? I didn’t participate in the argument(s) of the last couple pages, but so far as I saw, no one presented anything to substantiate their point point on increased/unchanged lethality one way or the other. CDC’s citation for the Canadian study links to medRxiv, but that paper was peer reviewed and published in the journal of the Canadian Medical Association.
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Nov 16, 2021 23:20
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"Delta is contagious but isn't more deadly." Is there research that can support this specific statement?
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Nov 16, 2021 23:20
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e: nvm Nothing wrong with my post but I’m tryin g to quit this thread. 
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Nov 16, 2021 23:24
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Razor Jacksuit posted:This has no connection to How are u's opinion that China will have to learn to live with the virus like the rest of the world. They are positing, rightly or wrongly, that China could have locked down harder and faster (in 2019), and thus prevented Covid from escaping their shores. I don't recall seeing any comment that would suggest How are u thinks China did this as part of a master plan, they just point to it as a demonstrable leadership fuckup. This is complete nonsense. We know definitively through genetic testing that COVID was in America in 2019: https://apnews.com/article/more-evidence-covid-in-US-by-Christmas-2019-11346afc5e18eee81ebcf35d9e6caee2 Nothing China did in 2019 would have changed the course of the pandemic--the virus was already here.
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Nov 16, 2021 23:27
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brugroffil posted:"Delta is contagious but isn't more deadly." Has there been a massive spike of deaths since Delta was a thing in oct 2020 or has it been mostly the same spikes and valleys since pretty much the whole thing started? Platystemon posted:Who said anything about preprints? Your post I responded to linked a pre-print, which you suggested was the data behind the CDC's statement. Anyway, I will concede this as my statement about it being more deadly was wrong. My personal views regarding covid haven't changed; don't want it, don't encourage behavior that's likely to expose you to it, I'm just not a fan of needlessly fear mongering when everyone in this thread is likely to be vaxxed + boosted if eligible.
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Nov 16, 2021 23:32
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Professor Beetus posted:Has there been a massive spike of deaths since Delta was a thing in oct 2020 or has it been mostly the same spikes and valleys since pretty much the whole thing started? Delta has been the dominant strain in the US (over 50% of cases) since mid July (from the CDC: https://www.wsj.com/articles/delta-covid-19-variant-is-dominant-u-s-strain-cdc-data-show-11625695319 ) Since then the CFR in the US has marched steadily upwards from a low of near 0.5% to above 1.5% again:  https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases
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Nov 16, 2021 23:38
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That is not a great method of determining CFR because the circumstances surround testing are always shifting, and since we now have multiple peer‐reviewed studies with sound methodology, it’s not necessary to resort to such crude estimations.
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Nov 16, 2021 23:42
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Platystemon posted:That is not a great method of determining CFR because the circumstances surround testing are always shifting, and since we now have multiple peer‐reviewed studies with sound methodology, it’s not necessary to resort to such crude estimations. Also we know Delta infections lead to symptoms much more quickly than Alpha and OG infections - this is extremely relevant if you're measuring CFR the way that graph is, which is just "cases 7 days ago/deaths today".
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Nov 16, 2021 23:52
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Professor Beetus posted:Has there been a massive spike of deaths since Delta was a thing in oct 2020 or has it been mostly the same spikes and valleys since pretty much the whole thing started? Not that I'm aware of, but I didn't make a claim. The claim was also not about "substantial" or "massive" but that Delta wasn't deadlier at all. I'm not aware of much data that would support the opposite--that Delta is deadlier--but I'm asking if there's data to support the claim that it isn't. I know back last winter, it was looking like UK/Alpha was more deadly than og COVID. I'm not sure if that's held up, and if it holds for Delta too. brugroffil fucked around with this message at 23:57 on Nov 16, 2021 |
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Nov 16, 2021 23:54
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brugroffil posted:Not that I'm aware of, but I didn't make a claim. The claim was also not about "substantial" or "massive" but that Delta wasn't deadlier at all. I'm not aware of much data that would support the opposite--that Delta is deadlier--but I'm asking if there's data to support the claim that it isn't. I know back last winter, it was looking like UK/Alpha was more deadly than og COVID. I'm not sure if that's held up, and if it holds for Delta too. Okay, yeah, you're right, I should have included a qualifier in my original reply, because I felt like that was the implication of the original post I quoted.
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Nov 17, 2021 00:13
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Measles isn't really a fair comparison because 1) the vaccine is sterizling and basically lasts forever and measles didn't have the ability to infect essentially all of the mammals.
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Nov 17, 2021 00:22
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if two variants had the same IFR one has a greater r naught, causing more infections which leads to more deaths, it’s deadlier What the gently caress do you all eat for breakfast? Rocks? Lmbo loving savants up in here (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 17, 2021 00:32
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no lube so what posted:if two variants had the same IFR one has a greater r naught, causing more infections which leads to more deaths, it’s deadlier It would certainly modulate the frequency of infection towards sharper peaks and troughs of deaths. Deadlier would modulate the amplitude of the waves of death. Well we all know FM is better than AM. Have you ever driven through a tunnel?
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Nov 17, 2021 00:35
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Edit: misread
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Nov 17, 2021 00:39
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Edit: misread
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Nov 17, 2021 00:39
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Just got my booster and flu shot. Can't wait to feel like poo poo for the next 48 hours!
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Nov 17, 2021 00:42
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Well, this isn't a good sign: https://twitter.com/BioTurboNick/status/1460715428242542592?t=Zja409QPsoAb7WE4V4wIEA&s=19 (Sewer samples from the MWRA, i.e. Boston, MA, sewer system)
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Nov 17, 2021 00:50
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That reminds me to check something. Stanford University has been quietly surveilling wastewater at a number of points in Northern California. Most are flattish. CODIGA at the campus of Stanford itself looks to be heading to the Moon, but if you zoom out it’s actually only hitting levels seen in August and September so far. It’s a smaller catchment area so it’s more prone to swings.
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Nov 17, 2021 00:59
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Jethro posted:Well, this isn't a good sign:
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Nov 17, 2021 01:24
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One more citation to add to the Canada and Scotland papers about Delta being deadlier, this time from England.quote:Individual-level data on 43 338 COVID-19-positive patients (8682 with the delta variant, 34 656 with the alpha variant; median age 31 years [IQR 17–43]) were included in our analysis. 196 (2·3%) patients with the delta variant versus 764 (2·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital within 14 days after the specimen was taken (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2·26 [95% CI 1·32–3·89]). 498 (5·7%) patients with the delta variant versus 1448 (4·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital or attended emergency care within 14 days (adjusted HR 1·45 [1·08–1·95]). Most patients were unvaccinated (32 078 [74·0%] across both groups). The HRs for vaccinated patients with the delta variant versus the alpha variant (adjusted HR for hospital admission 1·94 [95% CI 0·47–8·05] and for hospital admission or emergency care attendance 1·58 [0·69–3·61]) were similar to the HRs for unvaccinated patients (2·32 [1·29–4·16] and 1·43 [1·04–1·97]; p=0·82 for both) but the precision for the vaccinated subgroup was low. Intervals are wide, but it does appear to be worse. Note that this is a comparison versus Alpha. I believe that the consensus was that Alpha was moderately deadlier than the variants it displaced, though there were disagreements.
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Nov 17, 2021 01:26
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nexous posted:It would certainly modulate the frequency of infection towards sharper peaks and troughs of deaths. Deadlier would modulate the amplitude of the waves of death. A+ comedy right here Thanks for that
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Nov 17, 2021 01:58
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Platystemon posted:One more citation to add to the Canada and Scotland papers about Delta being deadlier, this time from England. So every iteration has been worse? Yeah, herd immunity. You guys sound like trump lmbo
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Nov 17, 2021 02:04
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