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Leperflesh posted:By this logic, you should buy and hold a 10x or 20x leveraged fund instead! Honestly if they were legal in the US I might put some fun money into one.
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Nov 18, 2021 18:50
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Leperflesh posted:By this logic, you should buy and hold a 10x or 20x leveraged fund instead! If there's a decade+ leveraged etf 10x or 20x that has as solid a history as tqqq, please let me know. As an example of fund that's eaten alive by poor leverage management there's SPXL -- it's also a 3x returns are similar to non-leveraged QQQ and as PIXAAL noted regarding the "down" years, it gets hit hard - the COVID drop specifically hit it absurdly hard, which if continued just a bit further may have killed the fund, something that did occur to more than a few funds in the dot com crash. I'm not supporting any/all leveraged, TQQQ has a good history.
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Nov 18, 2021 18:56
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WoYVmlOxwbA Ten minutes of your time but worth watching if you don't get the leveraged ETF math and how it will screw you over (eventually).
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Nov 18, 2021 18:57
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Seems like this total nothing burger rumour article has sent AAPL up and the EV stocks down. Apple Accelerates Work on Car Project, Aiming for Fully Autonomous Vehicle https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-accelerates-car-project-aiming-172644997.html No one cited on the record. I feel like I've read this same article several times now over the last few years.
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Nov 18, 2021 19:07
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pmchem posted:new thread title
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Nov 18, 2021 19:07
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PoppingFresh posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WoYVmlOxwbA SOXL - another example of a leveraged fund eaten by the "math". TQQQ has over a decade of out-performing nearly everything, and much deeper supporting pockets than most ETF's. Pixaal is right regarding the bull run vs potential bubble pop - we've been in a real long bull, if it pops, TQQQ goes down a bit more than 3x which can hurt, and flat years a leveraged can be outperformed. Personally I think there isn't bubble risks, but inflationary risks. We printed a couple trillion which largely ended up in the markets. It's kinda wild to get so much hate for recommending something like TQQQ for a 3 month play in a thread in love with NRDA and CRTX. Yes I missed the CRTX gravy train drat it Edit: The only actual good advice, which everyone gives here constantly, is toss that money in an IRA. Fair enough \/\/\/\/\/ 1st_Panzer_Div. fucked around with this message at 19:24 on Nov 18, 2021 |
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Nov 18, 2021 19:09
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I think the "love" in this thread for NDRA and CRTX has come with a decent amount of seriousposting about risks and downsides, and a recommendation to a random goon asking about a 3-month money park ETF or index fund to invest it in a 3x leveraged fund needs to come with a similar level of caution and not just "300% leveraged tech fund, your worst case you gotta bag hold a year." Leveraged funds are not entry-level investments.
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Nov 18, 2021 19:17
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TLRY, buddy, wake up.
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Nov 18, 2021 19:59
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Because I'm kind of dumb and just like the idea of holding Nintendo stock I bought a bunch when it plummeted to 53.xx and it's always nice watching it just creep slowly back up. It would be REALLY nice if it hit 81.xx again.
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Nov 18, 2021 20:04
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I think the stocks I own should go up more and down less. When's the market gonna price that in??? Bought some INTC to add to my goon-stock-picks heavy gambling account  (one of the least gambling type stocks I hold to be fair)
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Nov 18, 2021 21:16
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NTDOY always seems criminally undervalued to me in other gaming news... uhoh https://twitter.com/jasonschreier/status/1461420439004188673?s=20
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Nov 18, 2021 21:17
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Pull up! Pull up!
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Nov 18, 2021 21:33
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Looking bad for penny stocks
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Nov 18, 2021 21:36
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Lol nice finally back down to where I was in early summer! I should really just turn my whole 'fun' account into index funds and write goldman a thousand dollar check for nothing every year and just save myself time end results would be the same!
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Nov 18, 2021 22:26
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:As an example of fund that's eaten alive by poor leverage management there's SPXL -- it's also a 3x returns are similar to non-leveraged QQQ 1st_Panzer_Div. posted:SOXL - another example of a leveraged fund eaten by the "math". TQQQ has over a decade of out-performing nearly everything, Comparing SPXL (or SOXL) to QQQ or TQQQ and then concluding that SPXL or SOXL are poorly managed and that TQQQ is better because 'number go up' is not only comparing apples to oranges, it's a flat out dangerous misunderstanding. SPXL is 3x SPX. You have provided no evidence whatsoever that its tracking error, before expenses and fees, has been significant. SPX has generally went up much less than NDX (QQQ's index) over the past decade, hence TQQQ (3x NDX) has generally outperformed SPXL. That has nothing to do at all with the "leverage management" of SPXL. The fund is doing what it is designed to do. Similarly, SOXL is a 3x semiconductor index, it should not behave similarly to TQQQ. If you think that the Nasdaq 100 is destined to continue its meteoric outperformance and that the next year or so won't feature significant "chop", or periods where the market has a lot of ups/downs but generally goes nowhere, then by all means: TQQQ away. That is a perfectly reasonable argument to make. But in the leveraged ETF world, realize you're incurring significantly more risk, too. Total return may perhaps not be the only feature you're interested in, risk-adjusted returns are sometimes of interest, too. Further, if NDX dropped by 33% in one day, poof, TQQQ is dead as is all of your money. Granted, that's extraordinarily unlikely, but not impossible. It's literally impossible for SPX because of the built-in Level 3 halt: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/content/Funds/FundsToolsCircuitBreakersJSP.jsp . That's one reason why you see some people running "hedgefundie's excellent adventure" (google it) preferring UPRO (or SPXL) over TQQQ. Similarly, you mentioned an interest in 20x leveraged ETFs. Not a great idea, pretty much any equity 20x ETF you could imagine would've been wiped out at least once a decade for the last 100 years because of a day occurring where the market went down by 5% in a single day. Finally, a nice display of volatility drag (or "chop" effect on leveraged ETFs) is available in the TQQQ summary prospectus, on page 6: https://www.proshares.com/media/prospectus/tqqq_summary_prospectus.pdf?param=1637275791433 I've reproduced the relevant part here:  you'll note that for a daily 3x leveraged ETF, even if the market is up 10% in a given year, the leveraged etf could return anywhere from, say, 29%, all the way down to -93.4% (in reality, it could go to zero, but they're providing a statistical estimate). The volatility drag will generally not be in your favor: odds are the market will be in that more darkly shaded area. Imagine the market being up 10% but in a volatile year, the 3x ETF being down 10%! Sounds bad, right? Well, it's not just theoretical: From April 11, 2019 to April 9, 2020: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?QQQ,TQQQ&l=2307&r=2558&O=011000 QQQ was up 10%, TQQQ was down 11%. Whoops! In short: leveraged ETFs are useful for very short term trades, or perhaps useful for long-term holds if you (a) are VERY VERY confident that "number go up significantly and regularly" and (b) will never need to sell at a loss if number goes down.
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Nov 18, 2021 23:57
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Beta decay is why I buy UVXY shares. A big crash has to happen.
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Nov 19, 2021 00:08
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I got out of my 2x leveraged ETFs when I realised the performance since inception wasn’t all that much better than an index fund over the same period, but with twice the volatility, higher fees and a lower dividend.
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Nov 19, 2021 00:27
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Upside Potential posted:Beta decay is why I buy UVXY shares. A big crash has to happen. Change the thread title again please
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Nov 19, 2021 00:30
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CURI earnings: Revenue Q2 - $8.7mil Q3 - $18.7mil The market cap is ~440mil. I'm trying to think of things other than "buy the dip!"
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Nov 19, 2021 01:14
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All of my things are down. I don't need the money right now so I'm assuming it's better for me to wait awhile for them to be profitable again instead of panic selling and taking the realized loss. 2022 should have a booming economy right right
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Nov 19, 2021 01:16
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Sources say 2022 is when climate change really kicks in. So invest in fire proof cars that also turn into boats.
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Nov 19, 2021 01:21
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Lmao I'm honored. A couple things (in response to pmchen): Awesome write up, appreciated. 3 month investment of "beer money to whiskey money" - I under stated the risk. I stand by TQQQ being a good bet, though $160 is a better entry than todays $175. April '19 to April '20 is cherry pickin some once a decade level of data. As I over simplified with "holding for a year", if you bought in April '19, you'd be bag holding it a bit more. As you noted, S&P technically can't die in a day - after GME, I can't imagine they ever actually risk the nasdaq. The nasdaq 100 has an advantage (this is leveraged or not) over other stocks imo. They add some of the best and remove some of the chaff every year. On top of the market never going down (long term). Do you have any short plays for '22/'23, or just anticipating a lack of growth (and corresponding likelihood of a leveraged funds being outperformed)? 1st_Panzer_Div. fucked around with this message at 02:03 on Nov 19, 2021 |
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Nov 19, 2021 01:46
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Cyber Sandwich posted:CURI earnings: it's a subscription service for documentaries, a dying genre, and they have competition from every other major streaming service. they've never had a quarter with profitable operating income, ebitda, or (of course) net income. your revenue numbers are wrong. from their own site: https://investors.curiositystream.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx Q2 $15.3m Q3 $18.7m why do you want to own this company, you think it's gonna take off and be the next nflx? imo their best outcome is they get acquired by viac or disca or cmcsa
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Nov 19, 2021 01:48
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Cyber Sandwich posted:CURI earnings: Spend $3 for a month of access. Note the UIUX and catalogue. Move along. Worth the $20/yr if your YouTube algorithm really isn't doing it for your background viewing anymore. But I wouldn't invest in this company.
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Nov 19, 2021 02:40
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Why? Why are uranium stocks bleeding? 
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Nov 19, 2021 18:55
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Ubiquitus posted:Why? Why are uranium stocks bleeding? Because lithium is the superior metal, and thus has stolen your energy
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Nov 19, 2021 19:02
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The Fattest PI posted:All of my things are down. I don't need the money right now so I'm assuming it's better for me to wait awhile for them to be profitable again instead of panic selling and taking the realized loss. 2022 should have a booming economy right I lost $700 in the past two months waiting for small losses to turn around, and all they did was grow into big losses and waste my time. Don't be afraid to bite the bullet and realize losses while they're small and put the buying power into something that is actually making money.
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Nov 19, 2021 19:13
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Uranium is neutron powered, whereas lithium is ion/electron based
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Nov 19, 2021 19:14
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Ubiquitus posted:Why? Why are uranium stocks bleeding? Bleed suckers. Took all my money out of my gambling account to pay some debts, jumping back in and LAC is still a winner!
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Nov 19, 2021 19:57
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I have decided to start doing stonk gambling on Robinhood. Pray for me. Apologies in advance for tanking the market by touching it. That’s just how the universe works I’m afraid.
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Nov 19, 2021 21:12
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readingatwork posted:I have decided to start doing stonk gambling on Robinhood. Pray for me. Don't use Robinhood
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Nov 19, 2021 21:21
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Robinhood isn't great but as a newbie it's really easy to use and options trading is free, graphs are at least a B for a new person
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Nov 19, 2021 21:24
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Double is a GME truther which is why he hates robinhood, it's a fine platform for newbies. Just use limit orders.
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Nov 19, 2021 21:41
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ranbo das posted:Double is a GME truther which is why he hates robinhood, it's a fine platform for newbies. Just use limit orders. Don't need to be a GME truther to realize that they turned off the buy button for a dozen stocks lmao
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Nov 19, 2021 21:45
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DoubleT2172 posted:Don't need to be a GME truther to realize that they turned off the buy button for a dozen stocks lmao I dont think what happened with RH is nearly this simple.
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Nov 19, 2021 22:10
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DapperDraculaDeer posted:I dont think what happened with RH is nearly this simple. I think the end result of, hey don't use Robinhood unless you want the greatest likelihood of losing access to buy/sell stocks out of all the major brokerages, is a correct read. Like even if you do believe their stated reasons (I'm literally not taking a side on this), they are the worst broker for those reasons so you shouldn't use them - especially if you ever think you'll wanna mess with HOT/MEME action.
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Nov 19, 2021 22:17
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DoubleT2172 posted:Don't use Robinhood I'm aware of the Gamestop thing but also I'm pretty sure that could happen on any platform because hedge funds own this country and won't allow you to use the economy against them. I'm open to noob-friendly alternatives if there are any recommendations though. Also just to be clear I'm literally just doing this as an alternative to dumping a few hundred bucks at a casino. I'm not doing anything particularly risky and I'm not spending enough to be seriously hurt if everything tanks. I have an actual IRA for big boy investing purposes which is completely unconnected to any of this. In other news I made $0.10 today. gently caress YEAH! readingatwork fucked around with this message at 22:26 on Nov 19, 2021 |
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Nov 19, 2021 22:24
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tangy yet delightful posted:I think the end result of, hey don't use Robinhood unless you want the greatest likelihood of losing access to buy/sell stocks out of all the major brokerages, is a correct read. Like even if you do believe their stated reasons (I'm literally not taking a side on this), they are the worst broker for those reasons so you shouldn't use them - especially if you ever think you'll wanna mess with HOT/MEME action. Did RH prevent users from selling stocks during the GME thing? I thought the increased clearing house fees and their lack of capital forced them to limit what users could buy. And while that is a major issue the portrayals of what happened as RH being part of some massive hedgie conspiracy are just dumb.
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Nov 19, 2021 22:36
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TBH it might have just been buys not sells that were stopped, if so mean culpa on that word in my post.
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Nov 19, 2021 23:09
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DapperDraculaDeer posted:I dont think what happened with RH is nearly this simple. People who don't understand float being able to be above shares outstanding because it's a property of volume not understanding what T+2 is?  Girbot fucked around with this message at 23:16 on Nov 19, 2021 |
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Nov 19, 2021 23:13
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