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Would a neutral Ukraine actually be acceptable to Putin? Zelensky campaigned on seeking rapprochement with Russia but was rebuffed
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Nov 21, 2021 19:32
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| # ? May 12, 2024 13:52 |
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Vasukhani posted:Yes, it shouldn't be acceptable. But we live in a reality where sovereign states have not yet been abolished. This is not a question of right and wrong. And Ukraine has agency, just like Russia. If Ukraine decides to exercise its agency and seek a backdoor into NATO Russia will exercise its agency and crush Ukraine. Finland's neutrality was not that between 1945-1991. In fact, its FP was basically dictated by the soviets. Buffer states are never truly "neutral" but the balancing act can prevent war. Russia forced Ukraine into the West in 2014, it is trying to get it to return to 2010 without Crimea, basically. But you see in NATOs hosed up mind it will solidify the currently deteriorating alliance system by letting Russia eat Ukraine up or rump it. The West will be much closer together with a Russia so close to bordering Poland. Odessa Crimea and Mariupol being capped means that the Ukrainians would have no sea routes and lose all claims to the black sea. With that the US would have less reason to be there.
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Nov 21, 2021 19:35
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Flavahbeast posted:Would a neutral Ukraine actually be acceptable to Putin? Zelensky campaigned on seeking rapprochement with Russia but was rebuffed Yes. I think so. The issue is true neutrality will look a lot like Russian influence.
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Nov 21, 2021 20:01
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The Ukrainian people shouldn't have to lose their sovereignty to sate the ego of a megalomaniacal poisoner. If Putin starts a war then I hope NATO stands firm and stops him. gently caress that cosplay tsar.
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Nov 21, 2021 20:01
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:But you see in NATOs hosed up mind it will solidify the currently deteriorating alliance system by letting Russia eat Ukraine up or rump it. The West will be much closer together with a Russia so close to bordering Poland. Cool, didn't know Köningsberg had joined the other Baltic states in independence.
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Nov 21, 2021 20:02
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Zudgemud posted:Cool, didn't know Köningsberg had joined the other Baltic states in independence. As it's an independent country it's Kind of tough to ferry troops into kaliningrad through Lithuania. However a Ukraine that loses everything east of the dnieper is hardly an independent state.
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Nov 21, 2021 20:33
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Odessa Crimea and Mariupol being capped means that the Ukrainians would have no sea routes and lose all claims to the black sea. With that the US would have less reason to be there. Surely *this* time your prediction of the imminent fall of Mariupol *must* be correct! (unlike all the many times you predicted it before) Surely.
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Nov 21, 2021 20:40
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Flavahbeast posted:Would a neutral Ukraine actually be acceptable to Putin? Zelensky campaigned on seeking rapprochement with Russia but was rebuffed No, the irredentist-eurasianist-whatever ideology does not recognize Ukraine as a legitimate state and they think in concepts of spheres of influence. Russia lost nearly all soft power to influence Ukraine with them banning propaganda channels and losing the areas with the large chunk of pro-russian voting population. So economic coercion or military action is what's left. So far with Russia claiming that the west is trying to kill the Minsk agreements is a bad sign, they're refusing the Normandy format and seem to be unhappy keeping the conflict frozen
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Nov 21, 2021 21:24
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I'm not convinced Russia will invade Ukraine. But, if they did what would their official reason be?
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Nov 21, 2021 21:46
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Charliegrs posted:I'm not convinced Russia will invade Ukraine. But, if they did what would their official reason be? Protecting ethnic Russians
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Nov 21, 2021 21:54
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Charliegrs posted:I'm not convinced Russia will invade Ukraine. But, if they did what would their official reason be? "What are you gonna do about it?"
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Nov 21, 2021 22:12
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aphid_licker posted:"What are you gonna do about it?" That and whatever the bullshit was told in 2014
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Nov 21, 2021 22:38
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Charliegrs posted:I'm not convinced Russia will invade Ukraine. But, if they did what would their official reason be? Fresh and straight from the horse's mouth: https://tass.com/politics/1364315 "The situation at several sections of Russia’s state border is difficult, with threats of armed conflicts and incidents amid heightening pressure from the US and its allies. Risks of provocations by Ukrainian special services and radical organizations in Crimea and against economic and transport facilities in the Azov and Black Seas have increased." Plus Peskov adding that the three other members of the Normandy Four are "unwilling to see that the Minsk Agreements are the key document for the settlement in Ukraine."
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Nov 21, 2021 22:39
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Ukraine is the epicenter of the combat gays onslaught
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Nov 21, 2021 23:38
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Vasukhani posted:What we have now is the US encouraging Ukraine to become a NATO member, knowing full well that they will send several battalions of "strong condemnations" if Russia decides to sack Kyiv. You don't just "become" a member, it requires unilateral approval from other member states and several other conditions that Ukraine will not fulfill. Unless you mean that US is encouraging Ukraine to cede Crimea and recognize the rebel republics. I haven't heard of this.
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Nov 22, 2021 12:41
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Yeah afaik new NATO members can't have border conflicts? So Russia de facto has a veto while they hold Crimea and Donbas.
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Nov 22, 2021 13:35
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Nenonen posted:You don't just "become" a member, it requires unilateral approval from other member states and several other conditions that Ukraine will not fulfill. Yes you get it now. Ukraine cannot and never will be part of NATO. The West needs to be explicit about this, because Zelensky is sure acting like he has a mutual defense treaty. Biden has nothing to lose by reaching an agreement on Ukraine with Putin on the summit. He wants desperately to focus on more important areas, yet keeps pretending there is a future with Ukraine as an American partner. wisconsingreg fucked around with this message at 14:01 on Nov 22, 2021 |
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Nov 22, 2021 13:51
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Huh that's weird, since Macron, Johnson and that CIA director guy warned Russia backing Ukraine in case of conflict You should, like, write them an email explaining things
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Nov 22, 2021 14:10
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Somaen posted:Huh that's weird, since Macron, Johnson and that CIA director guy warned Russia backing Ukraine in case of conflict What? You can find "my" take being articulated by literally the former head of Russian analysis for the CIA. It's just pretty basic neo-realism. Plenty of neorealists in the CIA. https://nationalinterest.org/feature/groupthink-resurgent-106951 wisconsingreg fucked around with this message at 14:30 on Nov 22, 2021 |
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Nov 22, 2021 14:26
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Vasukhani posted:Yes you get it now. Ukraine cannot and never will be part of NATO. The West needs to be explicit about this, because Zelensky is sure acting like he has a mutual defense treaty. What "Agreement" do you think Putin would actually be willing to do here? Given that he's been pretty clear about using Russian energy exports to enforce their ability to jump further into Ukraine?
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Nov 22, 2021 14:30
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CommieGIR posted:What "Agreement" do you think Putin would actually be willing to do here? Given that he's been pretty clear about using Russian energy exports to enforce their ability to jump further into Ukraine? Nothing smells like "realism" lie expecting Putin to follow agreements.
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Nov 22, 2021 14:34
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OddObserver posted:Nothing smells like "realism" lie expecting Putin to follow agreements. Seriously, I don't think there is an agreement that is going to satisfy or that Putin will actually stick to.
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Nov 22, 2021 14:36
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Vasukhani posted:What? You can find "my" take being articulated by literally the former head of Russian analysis for the CIA. It's just pretty basic neo-realism. Plenty of neorealists in the CIA. Well the current reality is that the western countries are loud and vocal in their backing of Ukraine (which incidentally makes Russia way less likely to attack because Putin is a coward). We are here as news watchers trying to find out what's happening/will happen, we don't influence presidents. If you strongly feel those countries should abandon Ukraine you should write Johnson, Macron and Biden an email telling them to stop because reality is heading in the opposite direction. I hear the more paragraphs you write the better
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Nov 22, 2021 14:38
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Somaen posted:Well the current reality is that the western countries are loud and vocal in their backing of Ukraine (which incidentally makes Russia way less likely to attack because Putin is a coward). We are here as news watchers trying to find out what's happening/will happen, we don't influence presidents. If you strongly feel those countries should abandon Ukraine you should write Johnson, Macron and Biden an email telling them to stop because reality is heading in the opposite direction. I hear the more paragraphs you write the better Yes. As we know, Western "support" (15 m16s) for Georgia dissuaded war with Russia and totally did not lead to it.
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Nov 22, 2021 14:51
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The West imo does have an interest in not allowing a war in Europe that's just about lol we are stronger than those guys and think that we can get away with it. That's just unchill to have in your neighborhood.
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Nov 22, 2021 14:53
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Not just NATO, by neutrality I'm guessing that Ukraine would have to give up any ambitions of working with EU? I didn't say 'becoming a member' because they're not likely to be eligible for membership any time soon, with their levels of corruption.
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Nov 22, 2021 14:55
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Vasukhani posted:Yes. As we know, Western "support" (15 m16s) for Georgia dissuaded war with Russia and totally did not lead to it. Conversely, sanctions for Crimea and Donbass in 2014-15 and Ukraine not falling apart made Putin back off from pushing the Novorossiya project to Transnistria because he got a bloody nose. If he sees that Ukraine has no friends and backers he can attack, if he judges political costs to be too much he will back off pretending he was just playin'. Hope this helps
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Nov 22, 2021 14:57
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Somaen posted:Conversely, sanctions for Crimea and Donbass in 2014-15 and Ukraine not falling apart made Putin back off from pushing the Novorossiya project to Transnistria because he got a bloody nose. If he sees that Ukraine has no friends and backers he can attack, if he judges political costs to be too much he will back off pretending he was just playin'. Hope this helps Let's see how those costs are doing say... January 15th? That's when Ukrainian intelligence is convinced the invasion will happen!
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Nov 22, 2021 15:04
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Vasukhani posted:Yes. As we know, Western "support" (15 m16s) for Georgia dissuaded war with Russia and totally did not lead to it.
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Nov 22, 2021 15:11
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Somaen posted:Conversely, sanctions for Crimea and Donbass in 2014-15 and Ukraine not falling apart made Putin back off from pushing the Novorossiya project to Transnistria because he got a bloody nose. If he sees that Ukraine has no friends and backers he can attack, if he judges political costs to be too much he will back off pretending he was just playin'. Hope this helps But what can NATO actually do to dissuade Putin here, now? Russia is already being sanctioned heavily and having their military infrastructure sabotaged by MI6 and that didn't prevent them from building up a war chest and have the force readiness for this presumed operation. So what happens now? Sleepy Joe ain't risking triple digit American bodybags in the leadup to the midterms over the loving Ukraine, so what's the hope, that Macron will risk French lives and military prestige and starting WW3?
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Nov 22, 2021 15:16
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Vasukhani posted:Let's see how those costs are doing say... January 15th? That's when Ukrainian intelligence is convinced the invasion will happen! Pls post the email after sending it, we all appreciate your expertise on Ukraine, and Biden will as well Edit:ok maybe too much Conspiratiorist posted:But what can NATO actually do to dissuade Putin here, now? Russia is already being sanctioned heavily and having their military infrastructure sabotaged by MI6 and that didn't prevent them from building up a war chest and have the force readiness for this presumed operation. We'll see but they already made statements like this which they wouldn't if the situation wasn't serious https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/europe/1637003193-macron-tells-putin-france-ready-to-defend-ukraine-s-territorial-integrity https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59288181 The thing is that Russians except for the extremely death-culty military types like western countries and don't want ww3 either and going out to die for Putin's bad ratings is not appealing Edit: why did you call it the Ukraine? Somaen fucked around with this message at 16:04 on Nov 22, 2021 |
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Nov 22, 2021 15:44
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Oh hey it’s the bi-yearly Clancy chat time again? poo poo, time flies
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Nov 22, 2021 15:54
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Somaen posted:Pls post the email after sending it, we all appreciate your expertise on Ukraine, 20 year old American guy that's been to Russia once Could you please at least try to be accurate with your doxxing. If you have issues with that assessment you can freely disagree with the analysis piece I posted. Cugel the Clever posted:Sounds like an argument for more meaningful support against Russian aggression than caving to Putin's crocodile tears. I agree! Good news though -- that is essentially the limit of American support! The issue isn't that the US wants to support Ukraine, it's that it actually does not, but wants Ukraine to know that it theoretically has its back. The US can send them humvees and a few TOW missiles. That won't change the outcome. Europe will not allow it and US priorities are now in the pacific. wisconsingreg fucked around with this message at 16:04 on Nov 22, 2021 |
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Nov 22, 2021 15:59
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Mokotow posted:Oh hey it’s the bi-yearly Clancy chat time again? poo poo, time flies Yeah, I’m waiting for nukes to be mentioned before I melt down.
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Nov 22, 2021 16:03
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What actually is meaningful support? As we all agree, there will not be a defense agreement in the short term, and we have all seen that just giving someone a lot a military equipment does not mean they win. So what's the plan, encourage them to fight and get butchered to make some point about the importance of national sovereignty? is that really preferable? Aggressors always believe they are peace loving and obviously would prefer not to fight, but literally what is the alternative here? The one thing I think would be meaningful would be removing Russia from SWIFT, but I don't think America's allies are ready to do that.
wisconsingreg fucked around with this message at 16:19 on Nov 22, 2021 |
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Nov 22, 2021 16:15
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Policy should reflect the world we have. This is more 1914 than 1939. I forgot though, as we all know the interconnectivity of trade has made a continental war impossible!
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Nov 22, 2021 16:28
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Yeah, I’m waiting for nukes to be mentioned before I melt down. Growing up I had a friend who would talk about how much poo poo America could do militarily if it wanted to and would reply to any counterarguments about "how many Americans do you think will die just to stop China from violating American IP or whatever" with some theory about how America could drop nukes down fault lines in the plates to destroy the world and I'm happy to say 15 years later, he still set the par for me for discussions about how militaristic geopolitics work. Put another way, I don't know how people look at the world today and conclude the super/regional powers have the capacity/popular support for drawn out warfare.
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Nov 22, 2021 17:05
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PugWings posted:Growing up I had a friend who would talk about how much poo poo America could do militarily if it wanted to and would reply to any counterarguments about "how many Americans do you think will die just to stop China from violating American IP or whatever" with some theory about how America could drop nukes down fault lines in the plates to destroy the world and I'm happy to say 15 years later, he still set the par for me for discussions about how militaristic geopolitics work. Yeah, thank god norman angell was right about that in 1909
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Nov 22, 2021 17:07
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Ukraine will just blow open the Vladimir Lenin reactor shell to prevent further Russian invasions
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Nov 22, 2021 17:12
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PugWings posted:Put another way, I don't know how people look at the world today and conclude the super/regional powers have the capacity/popular support for drawn out warfare. This works in Russia's favor since, while they may have the forces in place for a push, can opt to just rain down cruise missiles and airstrikes on every Ukranian military facility of value while holding the line against an Ukranian response. And what can NATO tangibly do in response to that, go kill Russians in Russian territory? This would completely devastate Ukraniain military infrastructure, nipping at the bud any ideas they might've had of a campaign in Donbass, and demonstrates the Zelensky government and its Western backers are impotent, securing primary policy goals without risking a protracted occupation with an active insurgency.
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Nov 22, 2021 20:29
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