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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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enki42 posted:The US is not the only country in the world. Most countries don't have a deaths per 100K approaching the United States, or nearly the proportion of people who have been infected so far. Also there's pretty much zero chance the CFR for a fully vaccinated person is 1.5% (particularly if your definition of 'fully vaccinated' includes up to date boosters), so there's no reason to think that total deaths won't fall significantly short of that, even if you assume that every vaccinated person will still contract COVID. Oh I'm with you on that, believe me. If you want to talk about other countries handling of COVID you want me to bring up China again? (4500 deaths total, 1.4 billion people)
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Nov 22, 2021 17:57
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The best estimates peg total worldwide COVID deaths at about 20 million right now: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates 1918 flu hit about 50-60 million worldwide, over 5 years Folks, we are 1/3 of the way there in about 1/3 of the time... mod sassinator fucked around with this message at 18:02 on Nov 22, 2021 |
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Nov 22, 2021 18:00
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mod sassinator posted:The best estimates peg total worldwide COVID deaths at about 20 million right now: https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/health/20-million-coronavirus-cases-intl/index.html Did you mean to link something else? That article is about 20 million reported cases, not deaths.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:03
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mod sassinator posted:Hi, you're still in the worst pandemic in history Not even *close*. It's not even the worst pandemic that the world is currently in - AIDS and malaria have both killed way, way more people (albeit over a much longer timescale, of course), the 1918 flu pandemic still has COVID handily beaten over almost the same timescale, and the Black Death killed enough people to not only completely change the political situation across all of Europe but actually measurably change the environment.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:03
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An elderly neighbor borrowed a bucket from me to put under their leaking roof. I offered to go up on the roof and throw a tarp over the offending spot. He said “no, it’s fine, let’s wait for it to dry out”. And I agreed that that would be prudent. It turned out that the leak was over the unfinished attic, so it wasn’t doing that much damage. He got the professionals out during the next dry spell, so I never needed to climb on the roof, but if I had tried to do so in flip-flops, I’m pretty sure he would have called me out on that, too.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:03
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mod sassinator posted:Oh I'm with you on that, believe me. If you want to talk about other countries handling of COVID you want me to bring up China again?
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Nov 22, 2021 18:04
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enki42 posted:Did you mean to link something else? That article is about 20 million reported cases, not deaths. Yeah sorry google brought up a different link, Economist of all sources pegs it at 17m or more from a few months ago: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates
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Nov 22, 2021 18:04
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I think the Black Death was a bit worse but covid still sucks!
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Nov 22, 2021 18:05
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dwarf74 posted:Are we actually taking this number seriously? Every time this gets posted here we constantly ask the sinophobes, how much is it off? How much is it wrong in your view? Are they off by 10x? Is China hiding 10 times the death? Ok.. but America is still 150 times worse in death than China. Are you honestly saying China is hiding one hundred fifty times the death as America and no one, not even all the Americans and expats living in China right now has noticed? Give us something to work with, help us understand this irrational kneejerk reaction that "China number WRONG!" What is any data or proof or anything you have to tell us why this number of deaths is wrong? We've been doing this for two years now in this thread and still never seen an answer from anyone that isn't "Urghor genocide!!!!" Give proof or shut it and be labeled a sinophobe.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:07
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dwarf74 posted:Are we actually taking this number seriously? Like every other official death count everywhere is bound to be an undercount by a bit, but there's no real reason to think it's not within an order of magnitude. Especially now with Delta, you can't just hide unchecked covid spread and death by lying about stats. e: China numbers are likely wrong in the same way US numbers are. We're officially at 750k or so deaths, but the CDC estimates that we were really at 920k through September. So add a fudge factor and 10x China if you really want to and you're still a an incredibly small number given their population size.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:08
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goddamnedtwisto posted:Not even *close*. It's not even the worst pandemic that the world is currently in - AIDS and malaria have both killed way, way more people (albeit over a much longer timescale, of course), the 1918 flu pandemic still has COVID handily beaten over almost the same timescale, and the Black Death killed enough people to not only completely change the political situation across all of Europe but actually measurably change the environment. Hi, a million of your neighbors/fellow Americans are dead or on track to die from this pandemic for far. The pandemic is not over for you, and you cannot stop caring about it.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:09
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mod sassinator posted:Vaccinated people are dying too, 42% of deaths in King County, WA, are vaccinated for example: https://kingcounty.gov/depts/health/covid-19/data/vaccination-outcomes.aspx Based on the other data on that same page vaccinated people are dying at a rate .16 people per day per 100,000 people vs 1.15 people per day per 100,000 people. It doesn't seem to jibe with 43% of folks dying being vaccinated and I'd be interested to see why there appears to be such a huge mismatch with the data, unless I'm reading something wrong there. Also, mod sassinator posted:At no point should anyone feel like the pandemic is over for the vaccinated, if for no other reason than they are still capable of getting infected and spreading to others. Yes, this is something I've been saying in this thread repeatedly and why I'm not personally in favor of people going back to restaurants, bars, gyms, etc. and for mask mandates in places where people have to go. But even in places with mask mandates there is literally zero enforcement, and who would you like to enforce them? The cops? National Guard? Minimum wage employees? My partner and I continue to self-isolate as much as possible and only see close family members who are vaccinated on a semi-regular basis, do our socializing via online groups, and wear N95/KN94 masks when we have to go grocery shopping or run other errands. Not sure why you're so keen on preaching to the choir about all this but there's literally 2 people in this entire thread who appear to be back 2 brunch. Real talk: what do you actually think would be possible in the US to approach anything even close to how China has dealt with Covid?
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Nov 22, 2021 18:13
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mod sassinator posted:You're responding to and attempting to refute this assertion: Which I did. There are literally not "hundreds of fully vaccinated people dying daily". There are not enough vaccinated people in the US dying daily to make Covid one of the top 15 causes of death in the US for vaccinated people. More people die from falling off of roofs every day. Even the 85% of people most likely to die from breakthrough covid - people over 65 - are more likely to die from a multitude of other diseases for which there is no vaccination. This is my full and entire point. quote:We are telling you, no this is a pandemic for everyone right now. No one can stop acting or pretending they aren't under threat of a deadly air spread disease. No one can go back to 2019 life where we didn't have constant fear of airborne death and disease in every public place. People who are vaccinated and under 65, absent of a compromised immune system, are literally not under any meaningful threat of death from Covid, even if the pandemic isn't over.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:14
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Is there an actual reasonable stat for how many vaccinated people are dying daily? And a stat for daily roof fall deaths?
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Nov 22, 2021 18:15
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Professor Beetus posted:Based on the other data on that same page vaccinated people are dying at a rate .16 people per day per 100,000 people vs 1.15 people per day per 100,000 people. It doesn't seem to jibe with 43% of folks dying being vaccinated and I'd be interested to see why there appears to be such a huge mismatch with the data, unless I'm reading something wrong there. King County is 85-90% vaccinated. There just aren't many unvaccinated people who haven't already had Covid left to kill in Seattle.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:17
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Professor Beetus posted:Based on the other data on that same page vaccinated people are dying at a rate .16 people per day per 100,000 people vs 1.15 people per day per 100,000 people. It doesn't seem to jibe with 43% of folks dying being vaccinated and I'd be interested to see why there appears to be such a huge mismatch with the data, unless I'm reading something wrong there. Well one of the big reasons for that is that it’s one big numerator and denominator. It’s calculated individually for each age range, then averaged. But there are deeper problems with their data sources and methods They’re working with bad data sources and basically pulling numbers from thin air in their attempt to unskew it. quote:To resolve these issues, we have added a “continuity correction” to our estimates of the size of the unvaccinated population, to ensure that it would not become unrealistically small. To do this, we assume that we will not reach 100% vaccination and that at least 5% of each age group, race/ethnicty group, and zip code will always be unvaccinated. Adding this correction ensures that there is always a reasonable denominator for the unvaccinated population that would prevent incidence, hospitalizations, and death rates from growing unrealistically large. Rigorous, it is not.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:20
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Professor Beetus posted:Based on the other data on that same page vaccinated people are dying at a rate .16 people per day per 100,000 people vs 1.15 people per day per 100,000 people. It doesn't seem to jibe with 43% of folks dying being vaccinated and I'd be interested to see why there appears to be such a huge mismatch with the data, unless I'm reading something wrong there. I've been consistently on the hard lockdown train since the start of this thing. Two months or so of actual government assistance and lockdown would have nipped this whole thing in the bud, like China did originally. Instead we had two weeks of theater and two years of half-measures that we were too tired to implement. The entire time everyone has refuted this with "oh well we don't do that in America, we have freedom". I don't know what to tell you--I'm American and I fully support trading some freedom for the ability to live a normal life again. I will not be gaslit into believing that is impossible or not an ideal shared by others. I don't even know if full lockdowns are that necessary--look at Japan, they're down to near zero cases again and as far as I can tell they only are employing _very consistent and widespread high quality mask use_. It really might be that simple, that we just force people (at gunpoint if necessary) to wear N95 and FFP2 masks for 3-4 months and this is controlled enough to effectively be over. But even THAT idea is too much for people to grasp, too much "freedom" given up. Better things are possible though and I will never let people forget that.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:21
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Professor Beetus posted:Based on the other data on that same page vaccinated people are dying at a rate .16 people per day per 100,000 people vs 1.15 people per day per 100,000 people. It doesn't seem to jibe with 43% of folks dying being vaccinated and I'd be interested to see why there appears to be such a huge mismatch with the data, unless I'm reading something wrong there. Those numbers fit if ~75% of the population is vaccinated: if the death rate among the unvaccinated pop is 7 times higher but the vaccinated population is 3 times larger, then about 3/7 of the deaths recorded are going to be vaccinated.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:21
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mod sassinator posted:The best estimates peg total worldwide COVID deaths at about 20 million right now: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates Some thoughts: 1. On a per-capita basis, COVID is still nowhere close. At an upper bound (your 20 million number), fatalities from COVID represent 0.25% of the worlds population. At a lower bound (17 million), the 1918 pandemic killed 1% of the world's population. At a more realistic level of 50 million, it was closer to 2.5 - 3%. 2. "1/3 of the time" isn't acknowledging the actual timeline of the 1918 pandemic. A majority of the impact of the 1918 pandemic was in 1918, and as far as I can see major waves of the pandemic were over by 1920. I'm not sure where 5 years comes from, what's your definition of pandemic?
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Nov 22, 2021 18:22
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mod sassinator posted:I've been consistently on the hard lockdown train since the start of this thing. Two months or so of actual government assistance and lockdown would have nipped this whole thing in the bud, like China did originally. Instead we had two weeks of theater and two years of half-measures that we were too tired to implement. The current federal government can't even pass what should be bipartisan, wildly popular legislation, so I don't really see how what you want is possible in reality, and not some alt-US that exists only in your head. Not to mention the wildly different state responses based on the fact that state governors have a republican advantage and have been pretty much on Covid's side throughout the pandemic with a few exceptions. Like, I agree with you on what should have been done, I just don't see how it happens in this reality and you have done literally nothing to show how it's politically possible. the holy poopacy posted:Those numbers fit if ~75% of the population is vaccinated: if the death rate among the unvaccinated pop is 7 times higher but the vaccinated population is 3 times larger, then about 3/7 of the deaths recorded are going to be vaccinated. Thanks for the explanation.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:27
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Professor Beetus posted:Based on the other data on that same page vaccinated people are dying at a rate .16 people per day per 100,000 people vs 1.15 people per day per 100,000 people. It doesn't seem to jibe with 43% of folks dying being vaccinated and I'd be interested to see why there appears to be such a huge mismatch with the data, unless I'm reading something wrong there. I was wondering this myself, and assumed it was due to high vaccination rate, so I tried to figure it out. 2,260,000 total at 72.7% vaccination rate (total population) 1,643,020 vaccinated 616,980 unvaccinated 1,643,020 people * 0.16 ppl/day / 100,000 = 2.63 vaccinated deaths a day 616,980 * 1.15 ppl/day / 100,000 = 7.1 unvaccinated deaths a day 9.73 deaths a day of which 27% are vaccinated If you do it again using the 16 and older vaccination data (because kids arent dying much in general), it's much closer to the stated 43%. If anything, this is showing how well the vaccines are doing. Eventually, 100% of people dying will be vaccinated, and thats a good thing.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:29
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mod sassinator posted:
As of November 13, 2021, the Illinois department of public health is still recommending that positive COVID people who are isolating wear a cloth face covering if they are going to come into contact with anyone.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:30
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It always seemed silly to me that schools make kids go to class on the roof
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Nov 22, 2021 18:33
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mod sassinator posted:I don't even know if full lockdowns are that necessary--look at Japan, they're down to near zero cases again and as far as I can tell they only are employing _very consistent and widespread high quality mask use_. It really might be that simple, that we just force people (at gunpoint if necessary) to wear N95 and FFP2 masks for 3-4 months and this is controlled enough to effectively be over. Also, who holds the gun in this scenario and do you not see the obvious problems in how that plays out in the United States?
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Nov 22, 2021 18:35
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brugroffil posted:Is there an actual reasonable stat for how many vaccinated people are dying daily? And a stat for daily roof fall deaths? There are just over one hundred fall deaths per day, but not off roofs.  It’s all being driven by the elderly.  Go down the ages and it the figures decrease rapidly.   For comparison, top twenty death chart:  https://wisqars.cdc.gov/fatal-leading Platystemon fucked around with this message at 18:43 on Nov 22, 2021 |
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Nov 22, 2021 18:36
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Platystemon posted:There are just over one hundred fall deaths per day, but not off roofs. This makes it an even better comparison for breakthrough Covid deaths than I thought.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:38
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JFC old people really suck at staying alive huh? Better not get old, goons, it seems dangerous.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:40
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Professor Beetus posted:Also, who holds the gun in this scenario and do you not see the obvious problems in how that plays out in the United States? Yeah the USA is a non-functioning society with police that are incompetent at doing any kind of good even if they wanted and also actively malicious, so any real attempt at solving problems like opiate addiction, covid, gun violence etc will also require abolishing the police. However I'm not too sure of the validity of arguments along the lines of saying that since we aren't abolishing the police that we should legalize eg drunken driving since the cops are problematic
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Nov 22, 2021 18:40
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Xombie posted:This makes it an even better comparison for breakthrough Covid deaths than I thought. You totally misrepresented the statistics and were wrong even so.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:41
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Professor Beetus posted:JFC old people really suck at staying alive huh? Better not get old, goons, it seems dangerous. That stat is probably almost entirely driven by falls consisting of tripping, breaking a bone, and dying from the complications, not because they were doing anything that would be normally considered "risky"
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Nov 22, 2021 18:41
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VitalSigns posted:Yeah the USA is a non-functioning society with police that are incompetent at doing any kind of good and also actively malicious, so any real attempt at solving problems like opiate addiction, covid, gun violence etc will also require abolishing the police. I think a mass mailing of N95 masks and a massive federal jobs program for contact tracing could be a good start, but yeah, non-functional society. haveblue posted:That stat is probably almost entirely driven by falls consisting of tripping, breaking a bone, and dying from the complications, not because they were doing anything that would be normally considered "risky" Yeah I know, I used to work at a nursing home, sorry if the black humor didn't land right.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:41
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Platystemon posted:There are just over one hundred fall deaths per day, but not off roofs. Only old people die of falling. I'm young, therefore practically immune to falling. See ya on top of Patagonia! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRpVyzagXLQ
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Nov 22, 2021 18:43
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quote:Yeah the USA is a non-functioning society with police that are incompetent at doing any kind of good even if they wanted and also actively malicious, so any real attempt at solving problems like opiate addiction, covid, gun violence etc will also require abolishing the police. For some things, sure, but for COVID specifically, the "and at gunpoint if you need to" part doesn't seem all that critical. For China levels of compliance with lockdowns and restrictions maybe, but most countries had more stringent restrictions than the US without needing a huge level of enforcement. It does seem like early, consistent messaging is pretty key, and I can see how that's especially challenging in the US with a good chunk of the population seemingly cheering for COVID, but mask mandates and business closures don't necessarily require armed enforcement (Businesses especially are easy to restrict without violence since their license to remain in business is in the hands of the government). Like given your drunk driving example, IMO drunk driving was reduced more by creating a cultural norm than enforcement necessarily. You're probably still very unlikely to get a DUI in most cases unless you're involved in an accident, but drunk driving has still been reduced a ton. enki42 fucked around with this message at 18:47 on Nov 22, 2021 |
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Nov 22, 2021 18:44
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enki42 posted:For some things, sure, but for COVID specifically, the "and at gunpoint if you need to" part doesn't seem all that critical. For China levels of compliance with lockdowns and restrictions maybe, but most countries had more stringent restrictions than the US without needing a huge level of enforcement. It does seem like early, consistent messaging is pretty key, and I can see how that's especially challenging in the US with a good chunk of the population seemingly cheering for COVID, but mask mandates and business closures don't necessarily require armed enforcement (Businesses especially are easy to restrict without violence since their license to remain in business is in the hands of the government). Mask mandates seem to be doing gently caress all for people in my area wearing masks correctly or even at all (people walking around doing their shopping with a coffee cup in hand). I haven't even seen an attempt to enforce in grocery stores beyond periodical loudspeaker announcements, and having spent the last 7 years mostly working retail, I can't blame any of the employees already getting treated like poo poo for garbage pay for not wanting to confront people about it.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:47
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VitalSigns posted:However I'm not too sure of the validity of arguments along the lines of saying that since we aren't abolishing the police that we should legalize eg drunken driving since the cops are problematic My point was that it would likely cause more harm than good to involve police enforcement. However, mass mailing out better masks to every US citizen could be a start, not everyone would wear them and you'd undoubtedly have dipshits burning them on youtube or whatever, but it would be something at least.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:49
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enki42 posted:For some things, sure, but for COVID specifically, the "and at gunpoint if you need to" part doesn't seem all that critical. For China levels of compliance with lockdowns and restrictions maybe, but most countries had more stringent restrictions than the US without needing a huge level of enforcement. It does seem like early, consistent messaging is pretty key, and I can see how that's especially challenging in the US with a good chunk of the population seemingly cheering for COVID, but mask mandates and business closures don't necessarily require armed enforcement (Businesses especially are easy to restrict without violence since their license to remain in business is in the hands of the government). Even limited enforcement at key chokepoints like MOTHERFUCKING TRAVELER QUARANTINES could have kept delta from exploding all over if coupled with a massive federal testing and tracing program, both of which I fully expected Biden to do (and the latter he even promised to do) But mildly inconveniencing travel instagram influencers was a bridge too far I guess This is also why the takes about Trump being a uniquely awful phenomenon are rather silly, we got a pragmatic neoliberal in and his policy isn't much different because they're both beholden to the Nurgle-worshipping business class. See also neoliberal darlings like Macron basically giving up
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Nov 22, 2021 18:52
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Professor Beetus posted:Mask mandates seem to be doing gently caress all for people in my area wearing masks correctly or even at all (people walking around doing their shopping with a coffee cup in hand). I haven't even seen an attempt to enforce in grocery stores beyond periodical loudspeaker announcements, and having spent the last 7 years mostly working retail, I can't blame any of the employees already getting treated like poo poo for garbage pay for not wanting to confront people about it. I think a lot of this has to do with establishing a cultural norm of masking being severely compromised in the US, from the Trump days of him refusing to wear a mask to the CDC saying you don't need one when vaccinated, to the general tone from everyone being that masks are the most annoying thing ever and it's so great and 'freeing' to not wear one. For sure it's a genuine challenge to come back from that, I feel like there must be an answer though besides "let's give police a ton of power to use as they wish (i.e. against racialized people)" I went for groceries this morning and there were hired security guards to enforce masking, and the cultural norm definitely hasn't dissipated indoors (although there's cracks here and there, go in a movie theatre and it's apparently zero masking from what other people have told me).
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Nov 22, 2021 18:54
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mod sassinator posted:Hi, a million of your neighbors/fellow Americans are dead or on track to die from this pandemic for far. The pandemic is not over for you, and you cannot stop caring about it. I'm not denying that. I'm saying that claiming it's the worst pandemic in history when it's not even within an order of magnitude of some extremely famous ones is ridiculous, and you can't just drop poo poo like that into a post - particularly with that sanctimonious tone - makes you look like an arsehole. Also - not American. Of course I'm from a country that so desperately wants to be the 51st state that we're about your only real competitors in the developed world for completely loving up our response to this disease, but assuming that sort of thing's not really helping your cause on the whole "not looking like an arsehole" thing.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:57
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enki42 posted:I think a lot of this has to do with establishing a cultural norm of masking being severely compromised in the US, from the Trump days of him refusing to wear a mask to the CDC saying you don't need one when vaccinated, to the general tone from everyone being that masks are the most annoying thing ever and it's so great and 'freeing' to not wear one. For sure it's a genuine challenge to come back from that, I feel like there must be an answer though besides "let's give police a ton of power to use as they wish (i.e. against racialized people)" Well see they have to eat and drink in the movie theater and covid respects that you have to take your mask off for that, which is why it's okay for restaurants and bars to be open as well.
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Nov 22, 2021 18:57
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Professor Beetus posted:My point was that it would likely cause more harm than good to involve police enforcement. However, mass mailing out better masks to every US citizen could be a start, not everyone would wear them and you'd undoubtedly have dipshits burning them on youtube or whatever, but it would be something at least. Sure I agree that it's pretty much always better to arrange systems to make it easier for people to make the right choices versus just relying 100% on punishment especially since our cops are all power-tripping dickheads I mean hell I think that way about drunken driving too. I don't think it should be legal and I think there should be consequences, but also just basic poo poo like public transportation that runs all night so people have options, and getting away from car centric society in general so people don't have to have a driver's license just to hold a job and survive are going to be better than harsher and harsher laws that aim to deter people by financially ruining them if they're caught
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Nov 22, 2021 19:01
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