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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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|---|---|---|---|
| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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I think tweaking the spike profile is pretty simple. I know the nih team behind the moderna vax had that part done within like a week of the virus first being sequenced.
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Nov 26, 2021 19:23
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| # ? May 25, 2024 19:01 |
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Got my third Pfizer shot today and it couldn't have been easier. Literally did not feel the needle. Hoping that like the first two the only side effect is a little arm pain.
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Nov 26, 2021 20:15
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brugroffil posted:I think tweaking the spike profile is pretty simple. I know the nih team behind the moderna vax had that part done within like a week of the virus first being sequenced. they say they can have a tweaked vaccine ready in just 100 days but lol at how slow biotech poo poo is because 100 days without a vaccine, if it is that dire, is pretty bad ANIME AKBAR posted:It's silly to try and estimate when a hypothetical new vaccine might be available within a few days of the variant being discovered. Depends on what our rich overlords think Because if this one is the worst case scenario and escapes vaccines as well as being more infectious it's going to be devastating. People in anglo countries (except New Zealand) and Europe are already starting to riot at any form of lockdown and maskwearing. Supply lines are already straining. Rofl at this happening for Christmas. I can see them moving mountains to keep number up. Possibly just wishful thinking because yikes. Regarde Aduck fucked around with this message at 20:34 on Nov 26, 2021 |
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Nov 26, 2021 20:29
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I agree with CSPAM's take that the rapidity of response and number behavior suggests they credibly think poo poo is about to become significantly real.
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Nov 26, 2021 20:37
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I’d like to point out that we still don’t know if the breakthrough cases and reinfections end up being serious (especially hospital) cases. So that’s also something to be hopeful for - that previous immunization still protects at least from serious illness. I know everyone knows this already, but I feel we need to remind ourselves this in these threads.
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Nov 26, 2021 20:40
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StratGoatCom posted:I agree with CSPAM's take that the rapidity of response and number behavior suggests they credibly think poo poo is about to become significantly real. Several of the mutations have been found Extremely Escapey in non-human covid previously, we had kind of a sneak-peek at some of these and here it is in humans.
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Nov 26, 2021 20:41
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Dog on Fire posted:I’d like to point out that we still don’t know if the breakthrough cases and reinfections end up being serious (especially hospital) cases. So that’s also something to be hopeful for - that previous immunization still protects at least from serious illness. We're all casting around in the dark on any variant until we get real-world Israeli data it feels like and I don't think it should have to be this way but here we are, waiting to count hospitalized Israelis once again.
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Nov 26, 2021 20:42
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100 days without a vaccine isn’t actually that bad though? What we’re hearing is that R is roughly 2, so on average each person infects roughly two others over the course of a roughly 10-day infection. So being super-crude about it, over 100 days you end up with a total of roughly 1+2+4+…+2^10 ~ 2000 people infected worldwide for every person who’s infected today, if we don’t do any lockdowns or similar. And right now we think there are hardly any people infected, so probably we get the vaccine ready before it becomes all that widespread as a proportion of Covid cases. Obviously exponential growth is nothing to gently caress around with, this appears to be Bad, and 200 days without a vaccine would be a very different story, but it’s important not to overcorrect in the other direction. The constant factors in the exponent matter, a lot.
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Nov 26, 2021 20:45
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pumpinglemma posted:100 days without a vaccine isn’t actually that bad though? What we’re hearing is that R is roughly 2 I’m sorry, where?
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Nov 26, 2021 20:47
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pumpinglemma posted:100 days without a vaccine isn’t actually that bad though? What we’re hearing is that R is roughly 2, so on average each person infects roughly two others over the course of a roughly 10-day infection. So being super-crude about it, over 100 days you end up with a total of roughly 1+2+4+…+2^10 ~ 2000 people infected worldwide for every person who’s infected today, if we don’t do any lockdowns or similar. And right now we think there are hardly any people infected, so probably we get the vaccine ready before it becomes all that widespread as a proportion of Covid cases. We're seeing R estimates up to 36
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Nov 26, 2021 20:47
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Dog on Fire posted:I’d like to point out that we still don’t know if the breakthrough cases and reinfections end up being serious (especially hospital) cases. So that’s also something to be hopeful for - that previous immunization still protects at least from serious illness. "Mild covid" is actually really bad and causes significant amounts of organ damage, lung damage, and literally makes people stupider for months for the 10-20% unlucky enough to get long covid. So if it's more transmissible than Delta and even partially vaccine evasive then it's automatically really, really bad news, regardless of hospitalizations.
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Nov 26, 2021 20:49
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Wang Commander posted:We're seeing R estimates up to 36 My source on that was this article. Where are you getting R=36 from? If that’s true we’re turbofucked.
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Nov 26, 2021 20:51
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Wait is it the Nu or the Omicron variant that's the problem? Both? I've seen both being talked about but I'm not sure if folks are getting them mixed up
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Nov 26, 2021 20:53
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Bellmaker posted:Wait is it the Nu or the Omicron variant that's the problem? Both? I've seen both being talked about but I'm not sure if folks are getting them mixed up They're the same variant.
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Nov 26, 2021 20:54
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Bellmaker posted:Wait is it the Nu or the Omicron variant that's the problem? Both? I've seen both being talked about but I'm not sure if folks are getting them mixed up They're skipping Nu and Xi
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Nov 26, 2021 20:55
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Regarde Aduck posted:they say they can have a tweaked vaccine ready in just 100 days but lol at how slow biotech poo poo is because 100 days without a vaccine, if it is that dire, is pretty bad With human studies there's recruitment, narrowing down the subjects and dividing them into groups, scheduling shots, putting shots into arms, sample processing, QC to make sure the samples labeled placebo are actually placebo etc, shipping... So you've got the new strain sequenced and spike identified, you've made your vaccine, put that through QC/QA (yes that is necessary unless you want to end up with Emergent Biosolutions sending out saline). You're going to be running the expedited assays as samples come in, not waiting for the human trial to conclude. This isn't long term testing, this is (way oversimplifying it) put test material A into well B to see how much viral activity remains. COVID samples are obnoxious to analyze due to cross-reactivity so prepare for 6- or 12- or 24- way multiplex assays. The assay likely takes 3-4 days from start to finish. Allow for assay failures, as in, the plate just doesn't develop. Multiply by however large a sample size, however many different tissue types are being tested (does vaccine work in the lungs as well as in the blood stream, etc), however many different vaccine solutions, dosages, stability (does vaccine that has spent two weeks in storage work as well as the fresh thing), whether or not the patient has had 2 or 3 vaccines or is unvaxxed ...then onward to statistical analysis, QC/QA, report writing, additional testing as needed...maybe some analyst hosed up one thing down the line and you have to repeat a whole bunch of assays. And this is all excluding the time for regulatory agencies approval. 100 days is nothing.
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Nov 26, 2021 21:56
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pumpinglemma posted:100 days without a vaccine isn’t actually that bad though? What we’re hearing is that R is roughly 2, so on average each person infects roughly two others over the course of a roughly 10-day infection. So being super-crude about it, over 100 days you end up with a total of roughly 1+2+4+…+2^10 ~ 2000 people infected worldwide for every person who’s infected today, if we don’t do any lockdowns or similar. And right now we think there are hardly any people infected, so probably we get the vaccine ready before it becomes all that widespread as a proportion of Covid cases. At the worst point of the Autumn surge in the UK last year the doubling time was 5 days, and it was 6 days for both the Christmas surge and the summer surge (the first two OG, the third Delta). It's not unreasonable to say the doubling time for any variant capable of out-competing Delta is going to be shorter than that range. If you call it 4 days for ease of calculation that's 2^25 or 33,554,432 new cases by the 100th day. Of course it would never sustain that level of reproduction for the whole 100 days - this is why there are whole teams of programmers and data wizards working on this sort of thing - and the fact that the more-transmissable Delta actually grew slower than Classic Covid despite *less* NPIs shows just how hard predicting this sort of thing is, especially now there's a very large pool of people with at least *some* immunity (we'd have to be supremely, ridiculously unlucky if previous infection or vaccination did literally nothing at all to protect against Omicron).
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Nov 26, 2021 21:58
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goddamnedtwisto posted:At the worst point of the Autumn surge in the UK last year the doubling time was 5 days, and it was 6 days for both the Christmas surge and the summer surge (the first two OG, the third Delta). It's not unreasonable to say the doubling time for any variant capable of out-competing Delta is going to be shorter than that range. If you call it 4 days for ease of calculation that's 2^25 or 33,554,432 new cases by the 100th day.
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Nov 26, 2021 22:22
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Wang Commander posted:They're skipping Nu and Xi COVID Xi, what a missed opportunity. drat
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Nov 26, 2021 22:25
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mawarannahr posted:COVID Xi, what a missed opportunity. drat Everyone would have got confused when the next variant wasn't called Xii.
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Nov 26, 2021 22:27
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pumpinglemma posted:100 days without a vaccine isn’t actually that bad though? What we’re hearing is that R is roughly 2, so on average each person infects roughly two others over the course of a roughly 10-day infection. So being super-crude about it, over 100 days you end up with a total of roughly 1+2+4+…+2^10 ~ 2000 people infected worldwide for every person who’s infected today, if we don’t do any lockdowns or similar. And right now we think there are hardly any people infected, so probably we get the vaccine ready before it becomes all that widespread as a proportion of Covid cases. Nobody's got poo poo for gently caress re: r0 estimates on this one yet, and even then it's a highly contextual figure StratGoatCom posted:I agree with CSPAM's take that the rapidity of response and number behavior suggests they credibly think poo poo is about to become significantly real. What we see is actually way late and irrelevant. My question is "when were Senators briefed on this looming threat so they could adjust their portfolios to reflect what is coming while doing nothing" like we got last time with the late January briefs
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Nov 26, 2021 22:30
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Youth Decay posted:The fact that it's a COVID-19 strain means that there is some structural similarity in the spike proteins. It didn't just mutate from thin air. Well yeah, that's the point I was making, but there's people acting like "increased likelihood of evasion" means "vaccines all useless, start from square 1". Right now we've literally no idea how this fares against any of the current vaccines, let alone the melange of different dosing regimes and mixes of vaccines, boosters, and infections with previous strains.
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Nov 26, 2021 22:32
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mawarannahr posted:COVID Xi, what a missed opportunity. drat  could you imagine the official declarations of feelings being hurt? drat I kind of wish they would have done it.
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Nov 26, 2021 22:33
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How are u posted:
We're gonna see enough anti asian hate crimes as it is after this news. I would rather not risk adding to it.
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Nov 26, 2021 22:38
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Just let the internet vote to name it want Variant McVariantFace.
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Nov 26, 2021 22:38
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Illuminti posted:I think you can probably remove the first 4 of the year as they are unlikely to have been vaccinated at that point. So really it's 10. And it's an assumption that all the others were vaccinated and there is no control for any efforts to find 2021 cases to populate this list relative to previous years in order to try and 'prove' some anti Vax point.
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Nov 26, 2021 23:03
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Just let the internet vote to name it want Variant McVariantFace. Spiky Boi
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Nov 26, 2021 23:04
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StratGoatCom posted:I agree with CSPAM's take that the rapidity of response and number behavior suggests they credibly think poo poo is about to become significantly real. Seems reasonably real. https://twitter.com/snolen/status/1464225397994840067 Professor Beetus posted:Spiky Boi Spiketax
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Nov 26, 2021 23:06
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StratGoatCom posted:We're gonna see enough anti asian hate crimes as it is after this news. I would rather not risk adding to it. Yeah seriously, it's a hosed up thing to wish for.
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Nov 27, 2021 00:33
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I haven't been able to follow COVID news most of today, a quick question and an observation- Does anybody know if the new cases identified are with actual sequencing or the PCR proxy? I thought sequencing took several days. I'd really like to see the PCR proxy validated so we know the rates of false negatives and false positives with it? This is sort of a technical/pedantic thing but I've done a lot of work with various proxies and on an instinctual level would really like it robustly validated before it's widely used. It's unfortunate that Israel has cases and I by no means am hoping to see significant spread there, but due to their high level of vaccination we might have some preliminary data on how effective current vaccines are. Speaking of which, we're not going to have good estimates of R, disease severity, vaccine effectiveness, etc for a good while. You need a good number of cases to come up with robust estimates. I mean, everyone is going to try to calculate R values and such but early estimates are gonna have a huge uncertainty. goddamnedtwisto posted:Well yeah, that's the point I was making, but there's people acting like "increased likelihood of evasion" means "vaccines all useless, start from square 1". Right now we've literally no idea how this fares against any of the current vaccines, let alone the melange of different dosing regimes and mixes of vaccines, boosters, and infections with previous strains. The are many many different antibodies produced against spike protein which is 10k amino acids, antibodies recognize a segment that's at most a couple dozen aas. Also, antibodies aren't the only component of the immune system. So we have really no idea how effective current vaccines will be in terms of preventing infection or severe disease, just that the large number of mutations makes it concerning. Monoclonal antibodies are in big trouble though since they contain just one type of antibody. There were some tweets with computer modeling yesterday that suggest some of the new mutations are going to hit monoclonals hard.
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Nov 27, 2021 00:42
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StratGoatCom posted:I agree with CSPAM's take that the rapidity of response and number behavior suggests they credibly think poo poo is about to become significantly real. yeah just like all those times number has gone up because "covid is over" Fritz the Horse posted:Monoclonal antibodies are in big trouble though since they contain just one type of antibody. There were some tweets with computer modeling yesterday that suggest some of the new mutations are going to hit monoclonals hard. Does anybody really use these besides anti-vaxxers and the rich? I think I saw one post from a goon saying they got them at their ER.
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Nov 27, 2021 01:00
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Fallom posted:Does anybody really use these besides anti-vaxxers and the rich? I think I saw one post from a goon saying they got them at their ER. This is Michigan Medicine (University of Michigan’s health system).
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Nov 27, 2021 01:06
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Wang Commander posted:They're skipping Nu and Xi It’s gonna be so badass when we hit COVID OMEGA tho
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Nov 27, 2021 01:27
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Srice posted:Yeah seriously, it's a hosed up thing to wish for. I was not *wishing* for hate crime, good grief.
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Nov 27, 2021 01:29
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Wang Commander posted:We're seeing R estimates up to 36 The hell is wrong with you, why would you think it's ok to say something like this without backing it up with anything?
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Nov 27, 2021 01:57
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ANIME AKBAR posted:The hell is wrong with you, why would you think it's ok to say something like this without backing it up with anything? Seriously I'm pretty sure an R0 of 36 would make it the most infectious disease in human history by far. That's like double the R0 of even loving measles.
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Nov 27, 2021 02:04
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Sounds like their brain got jumbled with the 36 spike protein thing, if you're feeling inclined to be generous. If not yeah you can probably dismiss an analysis of R 36 as alarmist nonsense, not that we shouldn't be immediately concerned with and taking steps to slow the spread of a variant more infectious than Delta.
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Nov 27, 2021 02:08
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”R0 is thirty‐six!” was based on a misunderstanding of a statement that went something like “it seems to have gained prevalence five times more rapidly than Delta”. It may indeed have spread that much faster (or not; the uncertainty is huge), but in any event, it was decidedly Reff, not R0. Like, if Delta was Reff of one and a half for its initial surge, this would have been Reff of three and a half. The reason it would be that much higher would be complex and could include NPIs in effect, major gatherings, the weather, and yes, evasion of “natural” immunity. Beta was big in South Africa. Delta followed that and may have had a harder time reinfecting Beta victims than Omicron is having with Delta victims.
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Nov 27, 2021 02:12
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I got Regeneron a week ago Sunday due to underlying chronic asthma. All in all it'll probably be $600 out of pocket since we just started a new insurance plan and I'm at $0 on my deductible. If you're not American and don't understand what that last bit means, consider yourself blessed. brugroffil fucked around with this message at 02:37 on Nov 27, 2021 |
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Nov 27, 2021 02:16
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| # ? May 25, 2024 19:01 |
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Thanks I will
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Nov 27, 2021 02:33
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