|
Snowglobe of Doom posted:Who are you arguing against??? No one in this thread has said anything remotely like that. This is extremely weird
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 13:27
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 6, 2024 10:46 |
|
|
Fritz the Horse posted:I have never represented myself as an expert on virology, immunology, epidemiology etc. I am a scientist and educator, I care a lot about how people approach this sort of information. I totally agree with this sort of thing. Twitter as a medium has always been brain-poison due to the format, which strips discussion of all detail or nuance. Even 40 Tweet threads (which are only two pages of writing) are fundamentally damaged by this, because all the discussion is still going to be entirely focused on the controversial headlines in the first tweets that attract attention. As far as I can tell, that is never going to change because that tabloid quality is the core appeal.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 14:08
|
|
|
Fritz the Horse posted:
that would be really appreciated by the entire thread if you could 
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 14:13
|
|
|
toiletbrush posted:lol this is incredible coming from the dude who keeps falling back on 'but the vaccines aren't 100% effective' as if that is anything anyone said ever You are correct. However, there were a bunch of peopl ITT who were trying to argue that they were 99.9% effective FlamingLiberal posted:There’s a story on ABC News where they got a hold of CDC info estimating that the prevalence of breakthrough symptomatic infections among the vaccinated is 0.098 percent. Granted, this does not include asymptomatic infections, but that’s really good. LanceHunter posted:That's in line with the numbers we're seeing out of every health department in the country that has released stats on breakthrough cases. Virginia is reporting 0.031% of vaccinated people becoming infected. Washington DC is showing 0.05% of all fully vaccinated individuals becoming infected, and even LA County (which has some of the highest number of breakthrough cases) still only shows 0.1342% of vaccinated people getting breakthrough cases. Snowglobe of Doom fucked around with this message at 15:05 on Nov 27, 2021 |
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 14:59
|
|
|
Snowglobe of Doom posted:Normally i wouldn't bother asking but since you've been repeating this over in this thread to bignote yourself (and also went to the effort of attacking the qualifications of twitter people even when they only repeated facts and didn't offer opinions), what are your qualifications? Shut up weirdo
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 15:01
|
|
|
Chinatown posted:While worse than "the flu", it's here to stay. Sorry. I know the past 20 months have been really bad but you should probably deal with the PTSD you're dealing with and get back to a normal way of life where you balance risks in a sensible manner. Good luck! living like its 2019 isnt safe unless you consider getting (omicron) covid safe
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 15:22
|
|
|
Gio posted:living like its 2019 isnt safe unless you consider getting (omicron) covid safe In 2019 I was working with immunocompromised kiddies and just imagine how horrified I was to learn that we needed PSAs in 2020 to get the general public to wash their hands after going to the toilet.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 15:26
|
|
|
Snowglobe of Doom posted:You guys seem to be super upset because you think I implied something about the severity of Omicron when I never ever did that, or even implied it, or even hinted at it. I think you're a pretty good poster and I appreciate the views and info that you bring to both this and to the D&D Covid threat, but quoting that tweet definitely seemed to me that you were implying something about the severity of the situation. Also, what's the beef with Fritz? They're consistently one of the most level, scientifically minded and informative posters in the D&D thread, and their commentary almost always centers on explaining how to properly understand data and studies. Fritz, welcome to the thread; I for one hope you stick around!
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 15:29
|
|
|
Castaign posted:I think you're a pretty good poster and I appreciate the views and info that you bring to both this and to the D&D Covid threat, but quoting that tweet definitely seemed to me that you were implying something about the severity of the situation. I did try and clarify with the edit but I apologise if people mistook my intentions and got upset/confused. But I still maintain that it was lovely of them to accuse me of stuff I never said or implied and not back down Castaign posted:Also, what's the beef with Fritz? They're consistently one of the most level, scientifically minded and informative posters in the D&D thread, and their commentary almost always centers on explaining how to properly understand data and studies. I don't post in or read the D&D thread and I can't ever recall ever interacting with Fritz or reading any of their posts before they Kramered into this thread and poo poo on one of my posts: "what are her symptoms? this doesn't mean poo poo in isolation. just cherry-picking one example to get likes and retweets". They could have replied in good faith and there wouldn't have been any problem but it they're gonna come in hot like that and continually accuse me of fearmongering then what the gently caress did they think was going to happen?
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 15:42
|
|
|
Snowglobe of Doom posted:I don't post in or read the D&D thread Weird; sorry about that, not sure why I had it in my head that you were a regular in that thread too.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 15:54
|
|
|
Chinatown posted:Just get your booster and live normally you idiots. OK who bought Omicron an account
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 16:00
|
|
|
Snowglobe of Doom posted:You are correct.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 16:01
|
|
|
Fritz the Horse posted:Twitter is really really bad because it's mostly gonna be scorching hot takes of whatever gets the most likes and retweets. Kaal posted:I totally agree with this sort of thing. Twitter as a medium has always been brain-poison due to the format, which strips discussion of all detail or nuance. Yes, but as shitlibs, you love it because you can always find some self-promoting dipshit with a hot take that you can contrast with your own narrative, and then shrug and say, lol, twitter. What you really want is an agreeable discourse, where all the information is of sufficient quality that a definite truth can be verified and disseminated. I want that too, but it happens that we're in a mutable situation where rapid changes can be required without all the available data. There are plenty of SME with no obvious axes to grind, and a well established professional reputation on Twitter. So, how about some background about what we currently do know and what we do not, with some "scorching hot takes" to back things up from twitter: Omicron gained it's pango designation (B.1.1.529) on tuesday, via the pango github, based on genomic assays from various sources submitted to GISaid These mutations were noted by Tom Peacock from Imperial Department of Infectious Disease in the UK. CERI via Tulio de Oliveria in SA posted the first available data about this on the 25th https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911565288165388 The important data here is that Omicron has become the dominant variant sampled in Guatang province in the last two weeks, which is fast. Note that it is spring going summer in SA and their cases rates have been low, with the start of this two week period showing a sharp uptick. https://twitter.com/rid1tweets/status/1464297134551977984 So, a new variant has appeared - this happens all the time, but there are some unusual features to this variant not the least of which is the shear number of mutations, many of which have been seen before in other variants, but not together. Jeffery Barrett of the Sanger Institute in the UK describes the key mutations in some detail: https://twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1463975708770897923 The important data here is that Omicron has:
There are other mutations whose impact is less well defined or completely unknown, and how they will perform in combination is very much uncharted territory. These mutations resent in other variants previously defined as VoC's and what has allowed it to be designated as a Variant of Concern as well. Trevor Bedford, with the Fred Hutch Institute uses the genetic family tree of this variant to map out it's origin and this can be extended to determine how long this variant has been around, by mapping the rate of changes to known and previously studied variants https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1464353224417325066 The Important data here is that Omicron has existed since ~Oct 7th, and with this a doubling time of 4.8 days can be estimated. In summary: Trevor Bedford posted:Growth rate (in absolute terms and relative to Delta) will be become clearer in the following days, but at the moment, I believe we're looking at a variant that potentially has significant immune evasion and that appears to be spreading rapidly. I believe the cautionary principle in matters of public health is the priority and if you want to write that off as "fearmongering" I suggest you look at the per capita deathcount in your own country and think about how some prior less cautious decisions, and over-estimations have killed hundreds of thousands unnecessarily. There is an opportunity to learn from that, and seriously gently caress you for pushing back on well warranted caution. Fritz the Horse posted:what ive been pushing for is for posters to engage with the actual science and data. Honestly you seem more interested in being an rear end in a top hat to Snowglobe and shouting down people who disagree with your particular take on how best to "engage with actual science and data" and it's loving tedious and of no value at all (except in the D&D thread/shitlib hugbox where it is de rigueur).
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 16:31
|
|
|
I took my vaccines and banged pots and pans for essential workers so I think I shouldn't catch Omicron, bc the world is just and fair
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 16:36
|
|
|
smoobles posted:OK who bought Omicron an account Click the ‘?’ for a good chuckle.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 16:48
|
|
smoobles posted:I took my vaccines and banged pots and pans for essential workers so I think I shouldn't catch Omicron, bc the world is just and fair You forgot to howl at the moon at 8 pm every night You fool! We're all doomed!!
|
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 16:51
|
|
|
Chinatown posted:Just get your booster and live normally you idiots. I wouldn’t say ‘normally’ but I’ve come to a point where I’m not going to freak out over it anymore. Ironic how I’ve finally dealt with my pandemic anxiety and am now semi living normally* only to have a crazy mutation pop up and try to ruin my Christmas again. NOT TODAY OMICRON. *normal for me is not like normal for everyone else. By normal, I mean spending time indoors with friends and family and taking trips. Still no restaurants, concerts, etc unless it’s outdoors.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 16:53
|
|
|
Covid-19: Omicron on the cob
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 16:54
|
|
|
Blitter posted:
Caution is justified, but there's a gaping chasm between what is sensible (border closures, tracking recent arrivals etc) and what was posted. Maybe save the doomposting for when we have some actual proof that being triple vaxxed is completely useless and that it's time to hoard beans and bog rolls like it's 2020. I would add that even if the current vaccines are now obsolete we're maybe 100 days from having effective ones in production, and there have been antiviral drugs approved for use in the last few weeks/months. Omicron is almost certainly a setback but nothing like the initial emergence of covid classic.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 17:14
|
|
|
Only 100 days for a new vaccine that is effective against the new variant? That's based on all the research that's gone into the original ones?
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 17:20
|
|
|
They said they could produce and ship an updated vaccine in as little as 100 days. That says nothing about trials and approval.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 17:22
|
|
|
nexous posted:They said they could produce and ship an updated vaccine in as little as 100 days. And distribution and access and adoption, of course.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 17:25
|
|
|
Twitter does not deserve this desperate level of white-knighting.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 17:26
|
|
|
gay picnic defence posted:I would add that even if the current vaccines are now obsolete we're maybe 100 days from having effective ones in production, and there have been antiviral drugs approved for use in the last few weeks/months. Omicron is almost certainly a setback but nothing like the initial emergence of covid classic. 100 days to manufacture the first dose and then how many months of trials? This is a misleading number if its used to suggest we'll have vaccines available to the public in 100 days. Those anti-viral were tested against existing strains. They haven't been studied at all on omnicron and we already have evidence that monoclonals are likely to be impacted by the mutations it has. You have no evidence at all to make this claim that its not going to be as severe as the initial emergence of covid, which is a weird comparison anyway since the OG strain was quite mild in comparison to what we're dealing with today with delta. We should all pray omnicron is as deadly as OG covid.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 17:28
|
|
|
Kaal posted:Twitter does not deserve this desperate level of white-knighting. We're driving a car towards a cliff and people are saying that we have to wait until we get measurements of the cliff before we slam the brakes. We need to run a physics model of the car's deformation when it impacts and weigh that against the brake wear we could cause. Maybe hitting the brakes isn't even going to work, shouldn't we find that out before we make too quick of a decision?
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 17:33
|
|
|
Salt Fish posted:We're driving a car towards a cliff and people are saying that we have to wait until we get measurements of the cliff before we slam the brakes. We need to run a physics model of the car's deformation when it impacts and weigh that against the brake wear we could cause. Maybe hitting the brakes isn't even going to work, shouldn't we find that out before we make too quick of a decision? People shouldn't base their identity off being a tabloid media product.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 17:37
|
|
|
Kaal posted:Twitter does not deserve this desperate level of white-knighting. Nah, the point was that you're a disingenuous rear end in a top hat, and a useless poster which you're doing a good job of illustrating. Thanks!
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 17:37
|
|
|
Plant MONSTER. posted:you're being weird and this is coming from multiple people. Yeah and Snowglobe dude, you are far and away the biggest doomposter in this thread. You post a LOT of data and I'm sure a some of it is good but you also post random twitter poo poo from completely unqualified people. Keep posting, I like you, but maybe try to tone it down a bit. edit: woah didn't realize a whole other page went by
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 18:01
|
|
|
A million Americans are dead in a year from a pandemic that is going stronger than ever and the most important thing we can find to discuss is who is currently at this moment "doomposting". Guess what - the vaccines aren't very effective. I know because I've had 3 of them and its still not safe for me to go back to my past life, flying 4+ times a year and working in a cube farm with 500 other people. It's been 90 days since dose 3 and I'm already planning on a 4th dose in a few months. Guess what - in practical terms you should still be 'hiding in your basement'. If you behave in a reasonably safe way that reduces your risk of getting covid to something comparable to your risk of getting in a car accident people will call you a hermit. Oh well!
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 18:08
|
|
|
Salt Fish posted:Guess what - the vaccines aren't very effective. lol glad the thread is rapidly warping toward doom again
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 18:10
|
|
|
Salt Fish posted:A million Americans are dead in a year from a pandemic that is going stronger than ever and the most important thing we can find to discuss is who is currently at this moment "doomposting". Inept posted:lol glad the thread is rapidly warping toward doom again  I can't say it's not fun!
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 18:14
|
|
|
Inept posted:lol glad the thread is rapidly warping toward doom again The vaccines are the single best thing you can do to protect yourself, but don't get fooled - life is not back to normal after you get one. I already know many 3-dose breakthroughs who have been very sick. Everyone hoped they would be enough to stop the pandemic but clearly that isn't the case.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 18:16
|
|
|
Salt Fish posted:Guess what - the vaccines aren't very effective. Given that i wish to postpone the alternative i'll take whatever i can get and continue my life of social distancing (which was normal for me before covid). 
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 18:17
|
|
|
Yeah the pandemic changed.... well hardly anything about my life. I don't get out much.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 18:20
|
|
|
nexous posted:They said they could produce and ship an updated vaccine in as little as 100 days. I don’t know how much it (trials, regulatory review, etc) can be accelerated without compromising safety because I am no expert here. But the bottom line is that the virus is mutating faster than our science and bureaucracy can adapt to it. Even if we created a slam-dunk vaccine for Omicron today, it would be getting distributed just in time for Upsilon or Phi. One can only hope that at some point, the vaccines we have for [insert variant] will be enough because they will represent the most spike mutations the virus can accrue without breaking the functionality of the spike protein.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 18:21
|
|
|
They've already said variant vaccines can follow a similar approval path as yearly flu shots. You still need a small trial to show it doesn't cause you to burst into flames and that it has a similar antibody response but it's not the long process.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 18:30
|
|
|
If the level of immune escape is as bad as the lab models are hinting, then we are not starting the pandemic over. Starting over like it’s 2020 would assume a functioning healthcare system, working supply chains and a population that isn’t sick of mask wearing and stay at home measures. We have none of those.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 18:31
|
|
|
Inept posted:lol glad the thread is rapidly warping toward doom again
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 18:32
|
|
|
BOJO announced PCR testing on arrival is back, masks are coming back (sort of? only in shops but not in hotels or massive nightclubs with 4k people raving. It's great that Covid only spreads in Tesco) but Christmas is saved [citation needed], I'm literally flying to have dental treatment I can't get in the UK tomorrow lmao. Thanks for the extra £40 bill 
Galewolf fucked around with this message at 18:59 on Nov 27, 2021 |
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 18:53
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 6, 2024 10:46 |
|
|
I know it's still very new, but do they think the vaccine has any effectiveness against it? What about natural immunity from having covid?
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2021 19:03
|
|
