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Ladies and gentlemen, we got him. https://twitter.com/alexmeshkin/status/1464604739291783174
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Nov 27, 2021 19:06
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We don't know, but we will soon. I would not put any stock in computer modeling of this.
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Nov 27, 2021 19:07
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I'm curious: Are there any special guidelines for handling COIVD infections in immunocompromised people? Especially since they are both at higher risk of long term damage and apparently they can build up these new variants?
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Nov 27, 2021 19:24
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Masks mandatory on public transport and in shops again in the U.K.
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Nov 27, 2021 20:24
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learnincurve posted:Masks mandatory on public transport and in shops again in the U.K. We never should have stopped tbh but politicians do love their votes and their ££££. It's a strange feeling when you're a bit paranoid and you actually end up being right. 
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Nov 27, 2021 21:00
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learnincurve posted:Masks mandatory on public transport and in shops again in the U.K. It is odd that masks have such opposition by some. They are next to no effort to use when going out shopping and whatnot.
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Nov 27, 2021 21:06
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Just Another Lurker posted:We never should have stopped tbh but politicians do love their votes and their ££££. This happens over and over and over and its predictability is exceeded only by how exhausting it is. People just refuse to learn this brutally obvious lesson.
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Nov 27, 2021 21:06
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IncredibleIgloo posted:It is odd that masks have such opposition by some. They are next to no effort to use when going out shopping and whatnot. My personal belief is that they refuse masks because they want the situation to be not bad enough to require them. Some kind of projection or cargo cult immunity.
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Nov 27, 2021 21:15
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learnincurve posted:Masks mandatory on public transport and in shops again in the U.K. We're literally right on the brink of removing most mask requirements here in NSW. I expect that will change in the next week or two. While we sailed past 90% double vaccinated, we have struggled to reach 95%. Our third dose/booster rollout is only in the early stages and it's not really being pushed with any urgency. We could be in trouble if we take our eye off the ball (again) here.
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Nov 27, 2021 21:23
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Why are people saying the stocks took a dive on Friday. They are just back to what they were a few weeks ago. We're still near all time highs.
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Nov 27, 2021 21:26
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Mu Zeta posted:Why are people saying the stocks took a dive on Friday. They are just back to what they were a few weeks ago. We're still near all time highs. Fearmongering, people are getting nervous about continuous all time highs and others want a nice big crash so they can buy cheap stocks. 
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Nov 27, 2021 21:37
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Again, having masks mandatory in shops but allowing hospitality to keep on trucking is  I mean, I'm happy that it is but lmao Galewolf fucked around with this message at 21:43 on Nov 27, 2021 |
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Nov 27, 2021 21:40
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Mu Zeta posted:Why are people saying the stocks took a dive on Friday. They are just back to what they were a few weeks ago. We're still near all time highs. yeah the stock market always does this because it turns out the most elastic substance in the universe is dead cat :V
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Nov 27, 2021 21:46
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Don’t use day-to-day swings in the stock market as a measure if anything other than how much the stock market changed today.
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Nov 27, 2021 22:02
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Does anyone remember if the stock market took a dive when the Delta varient was discovered? I think it's weird how it took a dive when the Omicron varient was discovered even though it wasnt many cases in not many places. I don't remember the stock market diving when other varients, like the lambda varient were discovered.
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Nov 27, 2021 22:04
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Before delta none of the variants really Mattered, but post delta we know they really can.
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Nov 27, 2021 22:04
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Charliegrs posted:Does anyone remember if the stock market took a dive when the Delta varient was discovered? I think it's weird how it took a dive when the Omicron varient was discovered even though it wasnt many cases in not many places. I don't remember the stock market diving when other varients, like the lambda varient were discovered. Delta news was around December but not much of a blip. March 2020 was the only real dive in recent memory. Could change in the coming weeks of course. 
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Nov 27, 2021 22:19
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Scarodactyl posted:Before delta none of the variants really Mattered, but post delta we know they really can.
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Nov 27, 2021 22:55
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Salt Fish posted:100 days to manufacture the first dose and then how many months of trials? This is a misleading number if its used to suggest we'll have vaccines available to the public in 100 days. I'm pretty sure the first dose can be manufactured in like a couple of weeks time considering that I can order the gene and appropriate primers from multiple commercial vendors with 5 day delivery time. To get the appropriate RNA from that is likely a couple of days work and then I assume you basically shove that into your existing production pipeline without too much optimisation because it is really similar to previous strains. I assume the 100 day thing is with phase 1 and 2 testing included.
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Nov 27, 2021 22:55
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Salt Fish posted:Guess what - the vaccines aren't very effective. I know because I've had 3 of them and its still not safe for me to go back to my past life, flying 4+ times a year and working in a cube farm with 500 other people. It's been 90 days since dose 3 and I'm already planning on a 4th dose in a few months. Kinda curious -- if you think the covid vaccine (particularly the mrna type) is not "very effective", what vaccines do you think are very effective? What is the threshold? Right now, being vaccinated against covid lowers your risk of hospitalization and death by >10x compared to the unvaccinated. Here's a recent look that does a good job of splitting up the timeline into before and after delta sections: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm?s_cid=mm7037e1_w There's a lot of hand-wringing about the vaccine not working well against the delta variant, and in the tables and charts at the end you can see that the vaccine is undeniably less effective against delta. But you're still 10x less likely to have a severe (hospitalized) case and 17x less likely to die from delta than an unvaccinated person if you're under age 64. It gets worse above age 64 at "only" about 8x less likely to be hospitalized and 10x less likely to die, but I would still call that effective. I know there are a lot of bad faith flu comparisons out there, and I'm not trying to suggest any equivalence in general, but if we could get the covid death rate down by 10x through full vaccination, we would be looking at something like 80k instead of 800k deaths in the US over a ~2 year period, which really is comparable to average seasonal flu death rates. And while that's obviously still not great, it's at least a level that we were already accustomed to living with and our healthcare infrastructure can handle. I've been trying to find a good source on whether the vaccine also lowers risk of long covid symptoms, but that's been hard to track down because there's no common definition (some look at whether symptoms persist after 6 weeks, some look at 3 months, some longer -- and not all count the same symptoms) and because it's hard to find a large enough data set to draw conclusions from since there are so few breakthrough cases in the first place, and most studies with large enough populations to find hundreds or thousands of breakthroughs aren't able to track patient data with enough detail to evaluate how often long covid symptoms arise and how severe. There's a lot of small data sets and anecdotal evidence suggesting the vaccine also provides significant protection against long covid, but it's just not something I'm comfortable putting numbers on until I can find better data. At the moment, the long-covid stuff is the thing that concerns me in terms of personal risk as a 3x moderna shot haver in my 30s (ignoring the omicron wildcard that we don't know much about yet). I'm not worried that I would die from a breakthrough case, but I don't want a hosed up sense of smell or a year of feeling constantly winded or suffering from whatever brain fog is. I still wear a mask when I have to go out, avoid indoor gatherings as much as I can, etc. because I don't want to contribute to spreading the disease to an unvaccinated person or to someone with a weak immune system. But I no longer feel anxiety about my own health when I go the supermarket and I'm one of maybe 3 customers wearing a mask in the whole store, navigating through a sea of suburban FL chuds. And I don't feel nervous getting together with (vaccinated) friends and family anymore. There's always the risk that that will change with omicron or some other variant, and potentially very rapidly, and then I'll have to live another year of extreme social distancing, constant paranoia, and joining discords that track toilet paper restocks until a good vaccine comes out. And really, that last part is why I still have a doomer outlook even though I do put a lot of faith in the vaccine. I just don't think we'll ever get enough people vaccinated worldwide to effectively end the pandemic, and there's no political or popular will to go back to even the half-hearted form of lockdown that we did in 2020, much less the full-level lockdown that would actually be needed simultaneously in every country. If we can't get high vax rates or do lockdowns, reaching the level of natural immunity required for true herd immunity will take at least 3-4 more years at the rate we've been going, and that's ignoring the possibility of waning immunity and variants. Another thing I've heard suggested itt that could alleviate the pandemic is that diseases naturally evolve to be less deadly as a survival mechanism because if they're too deadly they kill the host before they can spread, but I don't think that will apply well to covid. Yeah it's deadly, but it's not THAT deadly (i.e., ebola or MERS) -- it kills pretty slowly (3+ weeks) and people usually feel good enough to still go out while they're at the peak of contagiousness, so I can't really see any reason there would be selective pressure to become less deadly -- only more transmissible and/or immunity resistant. There really is no end in sight, and certainly no end that will come in the next few years. There will probably just be alternating periods of relatively lower risk followed by periods of high risk waiting for vaccines to catch up to new strains, so I would suggest trying to take advantage of the "calm" periods if you are able.
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Nov 27, 2021 23:01
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Zudgemud posted:I'm pretty sure the first dose can be manufactured in like a couple of weeks time considering that I can order the gene and appropriate primers from multiple commercial vendors with 5 day delivery time. To get the appropriate RNA from that is likely a couple of days work and then I assume you basically shove that into your existing production pipeline without too much optimisation because it is really similar to previous strains. I assume the 100 day thing is with phase 1 and 2 testing included. IIRC Pfizer's recent update was a candidate booster in 6 weeks out of the 100 day total.
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Nov 27, 2021 23:05
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As I said in July, possibly earning my my  custom title,Platystemon posted:Is there a numerical standard of ‘highly protective’ with which I am unfamiliar, or is it all relative? It turns out that a lot of the effect we were seeing was not due to Delta, but due to waning antibody levels, but to be fair to all the other vaccines, we measured their efficacy years out.
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Nov 27, 2021 23:15
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Blitter posted:There are plenty of SME with no obvious axes to grind, and a well established professional reputation on Twitter. Yes, there is also good information on twitter. Your post is a good summary of what's known and I don't disagree with any of your post . I also don't think I've been pushing back against caution. What I'm pushing back against is posting about how vaccines are now useless or whatever, we literally do not know how effective vaccines are or other info about Omicron (severity of disease, R, etc) and won't for a little while. I'm not blowing off Omicron as a flash in the pan or telling anyone to reduce their level of caution. Also I probably came in a little hot toward Snowglobe so apologize for that. learnincurve posted:The Japan story is locked behind the Japanese times paywall but here’s the gist of it The Japan Times posted:“No genome data exists, so it’s just a hypothesis, but because it has disappeared, it will never see the light of day again,” he said. It seems plausible-ish? The big hole in the hypothesis is if some of the Delta lineage in Japan acquired mutations in its proofreading mechanism that impaired its ability to replicate... how does the impaired virus outcompete vanilla Delta to drive it to extinction? I guess you could come up with a scenario where vaccines, masking, social distancing were driving cases down and by sheer luck there were a few super-spreader events with the impaired virus that helped it out-spread regular Delta. I looked at a few other articles on this and several of them are making the dangerous extrapolation of going "hey this might happen elsewhere, maybe Delta will just mutate itself into extinction" which is pretty obviously lol. Maybe you could replicate what happened in Japan in other places but that requires high vaccination, good adherence to other NPIs to get case levels very low, and lots of luck. A couple articles were bordering on wishful thinking and the tone was almost "hey maybe Delta will just disappear!" There was also this bit in the Japan Times article which wasn't in the other articles. I've never heard of this before: The Japan Times posted:Studies have shown that more people in Asia have a defense enzyme called APOBEC3A that attacks RNA viruses, including the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19, when compared to people in Europe and Africa. edit: I haven't come across the APOBEC3A stuff before so idk how significant it is. My gut reaction is it feels like weird  stuff but I'm gonna read up on it a little.
Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 23:19 on Nov 27, 2021 |
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Nov 27, 2021 23:16
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Inept posted:lol glad the
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Nov 27, 2021 23:29
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nexous posted:They said they could produce and ship an updated vaccine in as little as 100 days. It'll be interesting to see if any vaccine they develop for new strains will actually work for anyone already vaccinated: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_antigenic_sin quote:Original antigenic sin, also known as antigenic imprinting or the Hoskins effect,[1] refers to the propensity of the body's immune system to preferentially utilize immunological memory based on a previous infection when a second slightly different version of that foreign pathogen (e.g. a virus or bacterium) is encountered. End of doompost.
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Nov 27, 2021 23:40
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Variants don't require the same level of trials that the original vaccine did. Just a small trial to test it.
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Nov 27, 2021 23:47
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Yo dudes we still can’t vaccinate some children and you’re talking about how fast we can get a new vaccine out
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Nov 27, 2021 23:48
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Do not procrastinate on your boosters like my wife and I who are currently marveling at how weird it is not to be able to smell anything.
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Nov 27, 2021 23:51
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Mu Zeta posted:Why are people saying the stocks took a dive on Friday. They are just back to what they were a few weeks ago. We're still near all time highs. I've noticed this too, news saying "BOY WHAT A BLOODBATH", and uhhh, I guess there was a dip? I understand anxiety and fear sell, but jeez Anyway, back to my regular Covid Anxiety, boy will Omicron be THE ONE ????
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Nov 27, 2021 23:52
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nexous posted:Yo dudes we still can’t vaccinate some children and you’re talking about how fast we can get a new vaccine out Totally right. We should hold off developing any variant-specific boosters until every child on Earth has had a jab, regardless if the new variant renders it useless. Lol no. e: Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:
The media requires unceasing catastrophes to drive engagement. DickParasite fucked around with this message at 23:55 on Nov 27, 2021 |
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Nov 27, 2021 23:52
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Bad Purchase posted:Kinda curious -- if you think the covid vaccine (particularly the mrna type) is not "very effective", what vaccines do you think are very effective? What is the threshold? I believe that the vaccines are currently the best tool that an individual has to protect themselves. I've had 3 of them, and I had a booster before 99.99% of people because I'm convinced that they're very beneficial and reduce your risk of dying from covid. What is mediocre about them? They wear off after 4-5 months, with the original 2 dose pfizer/moderna offering 0% protection against infection by 6 months. That study you provided was from April to July - it couldn't observe this happening because the general public were finally getting vaccinated in April. They also provide partial protection. Right now in King County 38% of covid deaths during the last 30 days were fully vaccinated. Its all relative of course. You could say "we didn't even know if it was possible to make a coronavirus vaccine in March 2020!" and yeah, by that metric the vaccines are great. But in terms of people going out to eat indoors, going to the gym again, getting on airplanes - the vaccine is not an excellent solution that supports those activities. In the context of imagining that you're safe from a new variant with 50 mutations on the spike, forget about it. Everyone should go get vaccinated, not just twice, not just 3 times but probably every 5 months until the next generation of vaccines becomes available because - as a tool to stop the pandemic - these current vaccines aren't going to cut it. They're great in a context of reduce risk, but they are not great in a context of making the world exactly like it was in 2019.
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Nov 27, 2021 23:55
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DickParasite posted:Totally right. We should hold off developing any variant-specific boosters until every child on Earth has had a jab, regardless if the new variant renders it useless. Idk what post you read but it couldn’t have been mine because that is in no way what I said. They will not rubber stamp approval for something they haven’t approved for <5 and barely approved for 5-12. We barely got boosters for all. And yet we’re discussing the possibility of a new vaccine in arms in 100 days?
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Nov 27, 2021 23:55
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Mu Zeta posted:Delta news was around December but not much of a blip. March 2020 was the only real dive in recent memory. Could change in the coming weeks of course. It's because it was Big News that happened on a Friday afternoon so a lot of traders unwound positions and hedged against a fall in prices in out-of-hours business so they didn't get a nasty shock on Monday morning. The actual content of the Big News is irrelevant in these days of algorithmic trading and stock prices being completely divorced from the actual underlying companies or wider economy.
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Nov 27, 2021 23:55
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Hoping this is what it turns out to be https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/south-african-doctor-raised-alarm-omicron-variant-says-symptoms/ "South African doctor who raised alarm about omicron variant says symptoms are ‘unusual but mild’ Dr Angelique Coetzee noticed otherwise healthy patients showing unusual symptoms and worries how the new variant might hurt the elderly" I mean, hopefully not the elderly, but the mild part
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Nov 27, 2021 23:56
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Could someone translate what the hell "shitlib" means? I avoid CSPAM and D&D because I already have enough brainworms, thanks, but Blitter's pro-Twitter rant made me curious what the gently caress the term is even supposed to mean. Beyond "my posting enemies," of course.
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Nov 27, 2021 23:59
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CaptainSarcastic posted:Could someone translate what the hell "shitlib" means? I avoid CSPAM and D&D because I already have enough brainworms, thanks, but Blitter's pro-Twitter rant made me curious what the gently caress the term is even supposed to mean. Beyond "my posting enemies," of course. Anyone who votes Democrat.
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Nov 28, 2021 00:02
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CaptainSarcastic posted:Could someone translate what the hell "shitlib" means? I avoid CSPAM and D&D because I already have enough brainworms, thanks, but Blitter's pro-Twitter rant made me curious what the gently caress the term is even supposed to mean. Beyond "my posting enemies," of course. According to Urban Dictionary: quote:Portmanteau comprising the words “poo poo” and “lib.” Used in leftist political discourse as a perjorative, mocking the spinelessness, stupidly, hypocrisy, and willful ignorance of American liberals.
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Nov 28, 2021 00:03
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Mu Zeta posted:Why are people saying the stocks took a dive on Friday. They are just back to what they were a few weeks ago. We're still near all time highs. Because it's something the doomposters can grab at show how totally and irretrievably hosed we apparently are right now. It's also worth noting that despite the massive explosion of cases in South Africa they don't have many (any? - sources vary) vaccinated people in hospital. If omicron was able to effortlessly bypass immunity from vaccination you would expect to see vaccinated people making up 30% or so of hospitalisations.
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Nov 28, 2021 00:03
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Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:Hoping this is what it turns out to be It will take some time to see how all this shakes out. In the meantime, extra caution seems wise. The fact that Capital and major governments seem scared is uh, not awesome.
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Nov 28, 2021 00:04
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My sister is a nurse at a VA hospital and boy is she tired of watching hundreds of men the exact age as our dad dying in the ICU over the last 18 months. Doesn't feel great!
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