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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Here’s an outline of what I see as the epistemological problem. Waiting for knowing with certainty is too late and has a very large opportunity cost. A preference for action might be the more reasonable choice. Early pandemic bad information was put out by institutional sources (eg. Fomites for spread, no aerosol spread, flip flopping on masks etc). Bad actors politicized basic reasonable NOIs (eg. masks) and are likely acting though the same social media manipulations that we have seen in politics. Some demographic groups have been disproportionately burdened by the pandemic and response relative to interest groups (eg. parents and teachers at the expense of restaurants operators). They’re pissed now. Government have errored on the side of too incautious consistently. Eg. Pulling mask mandates and other reasonable NPIs way to early. All of these things have undermined trust, and being angry at people who have had their trust broken is probably an error. It’s particularly galling when there are clear data based examples. Like school masking. In my county my district has had a reasonable masking and NPI program about a percent of the students have gotten covid since the start of the year and majority of that occurred off campus. In the same county some private schools have shed masks and have had individual spread events as large as the cumulative district total for the year to date. So looking at that, it’s reasonable to conclude any commenter taking about “off ramps to school masking “ is well, out right wrong to malicious and literally threatening my kids and their teachers. There in lies the gap between this thread and the cspam thread. Both threads should be more cognizant of how this gap arises. Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 02:07 on Nov 29, 2021 |
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Nov 29, 2021 00:12
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Look "toxic positivity" or "toxic optimism" means "shutting down contrary (pessimistic/negative) opinions by claiming they cause people distress". It does not mean "arguing in favor of a brighter outlook". Stop misusing the term here and in reports to shut down disussion.
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Nov 29, 2021 00:17
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Stereotype posted:The west failed miserably to contain the virus and China did not. Full stop. Pathetic denialists like you love to blame everyone else for their own completely foreseeable failures, but the simple fact is that the half-measures obsessed capitalist oligarch run west didn’t take the threat seriously and tried to negotiate their way out of any difficult choices. Not only did we not lock down in any meaningful way, we first denied even the existence of a problem for MONTHS when China was welding infected people into rooms and rapidly building quarantine hospitals. We still refuse to acknowledge what is required after a million Americans lay dead and a million more have their heads on the block. When you're back, perhaps you can give us what you think is a realistic roadmap to "fix" the problem here in Western nations. I don't say that to be snarky; I'm genuinely interested in hearing what you think needs to be done, and what you think actually can be done.
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Nov 29, 2021 00:29
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fool of sound posted:Look "toxic positivity" or "toxic optimism" means "shutting down contrary (pessimistic/negative) opinions by claiming they cause people distress". It does not mean "arguing in favor of a brighter outlook". Stop misusing the term here and in reports to shut down disussion. Seconding this. It's a very specific thing that is very specifically super bad and lame, but it's not the same thing as creating a dream board or just hoping for the best even if you think it's stupid to do so. For what it's worth I am posting this upon my throne of lentils, beans, and toilet paper
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Nov 29, 2021 00:38
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If you think this is a bad thread, try talking to boomers about covid sometime. The larger health threat to old people and the larger chunk of an old person's remaining life impacted by restrictions has them polarised as gently caress.
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Nov 29, 2021 00:43
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The notion that there is a "good" thread and a "bad" thread is the mind killer. Dehumanize and face to goonshed
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Nov 29, 2021 00:44
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Coldrice posted:Its probably the best time to post the update to Covid Simulator that I was in the process of writing! You own, the simulator is fantastic, thank you for making it.
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Nov 29, 2021 00:59
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Epic High Five posted:The notion that there is a "good" thread and a "bad" thread is the mind killer. Dehumanize and face to goonshed Well when you have poo poo like this  happen in one particular thread in a particular subforum constantly, then yeah you're gonna get the reputation for being a "bad thread." So how about it Epic High Five? Will you free the probed who dared tell CommieGIR that his moderation is poo poo?
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Nov 29, 2021 00:59
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After reading over the drama of the last few pages, my question is the mods going to re open the feedback thread again, because uh, there’s clearly a need for notes. As for COVID, here are masks I really like that are better than N95 (but yes, not as good as a full respirator). They also fit my big head very well, and have a nice proper seal. You can replace the vent openings with proper caps too, and they are on sale. https://rzmask.com/collections/m2-5-mesh When I was an idiot this past July and went to Disneyland for 15 hours right as delta hit, I wore this all day in crowds and was good.
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Nov 29, 2021 01:02
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:When you're back, perhaps you can give us what you think is a realistic roadmap to "fix" the problem here in Western nations. I'd say that with the omicron variant spread happening right now the US should be repeatedly PCR testing new and recent international arrivals ready to quarantine people who pop positive for a new variant. Higher quality masks should have been distributed to every citizen and mandated over widespread cloth ones, especially on airlines. Airlines could be bribed into not providing food service. Indoor dining shut down with a stronger push for business to build outdoor seating. Free rapid testing could have been regularly available outside of grocery stores, post offices or provided to businesses. Government could have probably gotten away with saying you need a negative result this often to do this early in the pandemic. CDC shouldn't have said masks down and kept up the enforcement of businesses mandating them. Quarantine facilities should have been established for foriegn arrivals who pop positive or need a actual private space they don't have at home. Most of those are policy in this or that western country. Basically I think the wide scale testing China capability demonstrated is the most effective thing any wealthy country could have done to help contain the pandemic. What I wish for most though is a CDC that actually releases the potential policy based on what it would take for disease control for our consideration even if they weren't ultimately politically viable.
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Nov 29, 2021 01:04
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mycomancy posted:Well when you have poo poo like this Nobody is perfect, not even mods. Everything put out is being reviewed and retracted with most already being effective. I'm sorry that some moderation is more complicated than none and I say this as someone you know for a fact reads and posts in the two of the three covid threads that matter to insane people like us.
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Nov 29, 2021 01:13
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Epic High Five posted:Nobody is perfect, not even mods. Everything put out is being reviewed and retracted with most already being effective. I'm sorry that some moderation is more complicated than none and I say this as someone you know for a fact reads and posts in the two of the three covid threads that matter to insane people like us. Excellent, thank you, and I appreciate the reply.
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Nov 29, 2021 01:15
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can someone link me to the CDC's approval of mix-and-match boosters for people who got J&J the first time around? a friend of mine wants to get boosted but isn't sure which one and wants a CDC link, and my google skills can't find it despite seeing it mentioned in answer 5 here: https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/johnson-and-johnson-covid-booster EDIT: here it is: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/p1021-covid-booster.html VVV: thank you very much! Fate Accomplice fucked around with this message at 02:43 on Nov 29, 2021 |
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Nov 29, 2021 02:38
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Fate Accomplice posted:can someone link me to the CDC's approval of mix-and-match boosters for people who got J&J the first time around? https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/booster-shot.html?s_cid=11708 Main CDC booster page
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Nov 29, 2021 02:42
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https://twitter.com/hjelle_brian/status/1465020053095477248 - could be something going wrong with proofreading, could be simply an artefact of the immunocompromised viral hyperbolic time chamber. What it means in practice? Could be good, could be bad, depends on what causes it
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Nov 29, 2021 04:33
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Stereotype posted:China didn’t gently caress this up. People like you did. Take some responsibility you insufferable child, or sit the gently caress down and let the “doomers” fix this problem you created. Thanks in advance for ending the pandemic, op
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Nov 29, 2021 04:34
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Coldrice posted:probs a good idea. 
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Nov 29, 2021 05:05
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CommieGIR posted:A wrong call was made, by me. But at the end of the day, the moderation feedback is QCS, not here. This mentality sucks and is akin to saying "I don't have to listen to you, take it up with my manager". Feedback threads in the home forum function a lot better than qcs.
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Nov 29, 2021 05:22
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Elea posted:I'd say that with the omicron variant spread happening right now the US should be repeatedly PCR testing new and recent international arrivals ready to quarantine people who pop positive for a new variant. Higher quality masks should have been distributed to every citizen and mandated over widespread cloth ones, especially on airlines. Airlines could be bribed into not providing food service. Indoor dining shut down with a stronger push for business to build outdoor seating. Free rapid testing could have been regularly available outside of grocery stores, post offices or provided to businesses. Government could have probably gotten away with saying you need a negative result this often to do this early in the pandemic. CDC shouldn't have said masks down and kept up the enforcement of businesses mandating them. Quarantine facilities should have been established for foriegn arrivals who pop positive or need a actual private space they don't have at home. Most of those are policy in this or that western country. I agree with these things (although I'm not sure if some of them would be any use in practice, like mandating higher quality masks when people can't even be got on board with wearing cloth masks consistently) but the problem is how long you can convince people to implement them for. It's probably most accurate to say that having these levels of mild-moderate restrictions forever is what 'living with covid' looks like for the foreseeable future, if you want to maintain a reasonable level of cases and keep the hospital system running, but I'm not sure this would be any easier to enforce than hard lockdowns. Speaking from the Australian experience in many ways zero covid was easier because there was an obvious target for the general population to work towards and expect, but now every government here bombarded our population of babies with 'if you behave yourselves the restrictions will go away!' messages (I think from a mixture of seeking political gain, ideologically driven stupidity, and genuine well-meaning pragmatism that this was the only way to get people to comply with restrictions). If I could wish for something the most it would be clear government messaging and general popular understanding that the only feasible options are 1) attempting to reach zero covid with harsh restrictions and re-implementing the restrictions aggressively 2) some level of ongoing restrictions with the understanding that depending how weak the restrictions are the inevitable outbreaks will be worse and require harsher measures You can argue about which of these are better (I'm even willing to hear out people who think there should be no ongoing restrictions if they are willing to admit that this means every year there will be a wave of cases and temporary lockdowns) but no country on earth has yet demonstrated the mythical third option which everyone seems to think is 'living with covid' (restrictions go away forever and never return) can work, unless you're the USA and have such a dysfunctional system where deaths don't matter at all.
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Nov 29, 2021 05:38
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https://twitter.com/AP/status/1465179817830199297 Thank you, unnamed scientists.
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Nov 29, 2021 06:02
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Coldrice posted:Its probably the best time to post the update to Covid Simulator that I was in the process of writing! Legitimate gameplay question: Is the demographics stuff working as intended? messing around everyone nonwhite seems to basically instantly die every time. I think some factors are stacking up weird. Like it's double counting risk factors or something.
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Nov 29, 2021 06:09
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Stereotype posted:Yeah. The cspam thread is significantly more informative and empirically correct about basically everything. This is the thread for denialists to bargain their way into some sort of hopefulness. im sorry i got you probed for answering me lol this place is in fact very cool and chill (opposite of bad). my apologies.
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Nov 29, 2021 06:34
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australia's been mostly good against covid, ignore the eastern state chauvinists that we only consist of melbourne and sydney. here's something i wrote a few months ago about perth/WA (we've been basically covid free for like 2 years with some intermittent cases). imo, the take away (besides getting lucky) is that strong and clear messaging can actually get people to follow and accept restrictions. there was even a period where masks weren't mandatory outside and i still saw people wearing them.crepeface posted:trying to recall how perth handled the delta outbreak in late june by going through some old chats/posts. there was an overnight case on saturday and on sunday morning (27/06/2021) our premier announced restrictions to kick in at noon. keep in mind that our default level is no masks or anything. you just have to check in at venues. tagesschau posted:An authoritarian one-party state where it's more important that the published statistics make the right people look good than that they reflect reality. This also appears to be Ron DeSantis' goal. ah yes, the perfidious celestials fabricated fake statistics to make the US numbers look only really really bad, rather than catastrophically bad
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Nov 29, 2021 07:25
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:everyone nonwhite seems to basically instantly die every time. working as intended
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Nov 29, 2021 07:30
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Legitimate gameplay question: Is the demographics stuff working as intended? messing around everyone nonwhite seems to basically instantly die every time. I think some factors are stacking up weird. Like it's double counting risk factors or something. So I got a got of flak and puzzled people when I added the age/ethnicity/health aspects to it when this all started. Especially ethnicity. HOWEVER  PoC are almost 4x more likely to be hospitalized, and 2x more likely to die from Covid. This is actually pretty conservative compared to a lot of stats imo. It’s been shocking how badly Covid is rocking these communities and no one seems to care - so to me it’s almost critical to implement since the goal is to educate people on “Covid is loving dangerous.” The game randomizes the population by the most recent US census data of populations. It also uses stats of average ages of people in the work force, and US Health stats on obesity or malnutrition. Being random (like a coin flip) you can get pretty much 1:1 accurate average US population the more runs you do, but a single run you could end up with a bunch of unhealthy, old, male, non-white people and it feels like they’re dropping like flies, and the next young, healthy people and it seems like no one is dying. I recently added a “disable political commentary” button to the options, and I have considered disabling age/gender/ethnicity/health to make the date more average based and less specific. But I kinda hate the concept of labeling ethnicity or gender as “political” Coldrice fucked around with this message at 08:31 on Nov 29, 2021 |
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Nov 29, 2021 08:26
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crepeface posted:australia's been mostly good against covid, ignore the eastern state chauvinists that we only consist of melbourne and sydney. here's something i wrote a few months ago about perth/WA (we've been basically covid free for like 2 years with some intermittent cases). imo, the take away (besides getting lucky) is that strong and clear messaging can actually get people to follow and accept restrictions. Aside from luck a factor in WA's success is just being a small place with relatively less cross-border freight traffic. The bigger a place is, the more air freight it's getting, so the larger number of people you have landing and departing every single day with an increased risk that some of those air crew will have COVID. Literally all of the hundreds of thousands of COVID cases that have ravaged New South Wales and Victoria in the last few months stem from a single FedEx plane crew member in July. Associated with that is that if you are, like Victoria, joined at the hip to a state like NSW which was the black sheep of Australia in being reluctant to ever do swift lockdowns, you're getting dragged down into hell with them. I remember somebody in the auspol thread saying that we'd been pretty compliant in Victoria in the past, but by the time the sixth lockdown rolled around we'd already done two or three "short sharp" lockdowns in the previous couple of months, and something in our brains just broke - like, what's the point in being compliant and doing the right thing if the neighbouring state can just blithely charge on with its own path and gently caress us up anyway? Strong and clear messaging will only take any population so far, human beings all have breaking points, and you'll see that even in Taiwan and China if they ever have outbreaks bad enough to end up in cumulatively-months-long lockdowns. (But that's only part of the reason COVID-zero failed in Australia, nothing ever happens for anything less than a myriad of reasons, Delta being more infectious was definitely a big part of it too.)
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Nov 29, 2021 10:11
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HK confirmed a third O-variant case, though it has been contained, and is now ramping up entry requirements to new heights that I expect will soon effectively function as an international travel ban. Anyone arriving from a country with a reported O-variant infection first spends 7 days in the much-dreaded Penny Bay quarantine camp and then 21 days in a designated hotel quarantine facility, which range from 5-star luxury hotels to hellish micro-rooms (which you have to pay for). Both Penny Bay and the hotels have limited capacity, though, so I expect the waiting time to be months. At the same time, quarantine-free travel with the mainland is expected to reopen on a small scale (maybe a few hundred people a day) next week. I'm guessing that plan will be canceled. I'm also guessing that a lot of people just got boned. I'd been seeing reports that a lot of residents were already booking holiday plans due to the long advance booking needed, and a lot of booking services here are nonrefundable and non-changeable.
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Nov 29, 2021 10:48
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Coldrice posted:So I got a got of flak and puzzled people when I added the age/ethnicity/health aspects to it when this all started. Especially ethnicity. HOWEVER
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Nov 29, 2021 12:20
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poc are poorer on average so worse healthcare. also iirc poc have lower rates of vaccinations (probably because it's hard for them to get the time off to recover) maybe also cultural distrust of "white" institutions?
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Nov 29, 2021 12:34
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gay picnic defence posted:What’s behind the worse outcomes for PoC? Being an ignorant non-American I had assumed they were largely Democrat leaning and likely to follow the advice to get vaccinated. Some of the reasons that have been speculated on up here in Canada (where the same trend definitely exists):
I'm sure there's others, but those have been common ones I've heard. enki42 fucked around with this message at 12:41 on Nov 29, 2021 |
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Nov 29, 2021 12:38
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enki42 posted:Some of the reasons that have been speculated on up here in Canada (where the same trend definitely exists): This is why they're more likely to be infected, which is different to why they have worse outcomes once they are - the answer to which is mostly good old socio-economic inequality which means they're already more likely to have pre-existing health issues.
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Nov 29, 2021 12:57
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Coldrice posted:So I got a got of flak and puzzled people when I added the age/ethnicity/health aspects to it when this all started. Especially ethnicity. HOWEVER I get the intent of the system, I think the game is stacking up modifiers weirdly. Gameplay bug wise. I think it's reapplying the entire modifier at every step instead of carrying any across. Say in a fantasy game if it said dwarfs were 2x as likely to catch/be hospitalized/die as elves, that would need to be a 2x applied once at the start. The 2x catch rate would cause a 2x hospitalization rate would cause a 2x death rate. If you reapply the entire 2x at every step independently they instead stack to be 2x catch -> 4x hospitalization -> 8x death. You only need to apply the new differance each step, not the entire rate multiple times. Like once you apply 1.9x to hispanics catching it, you only need to apply part of that again to get up to 2.8, not multiply the whole thing by 2.8 again, then they need a higher survival rate to get the death back down to 2.3, not multiply hospitalized by 2.3. Like the math is really woogy. I think it's also stacking with the obesity calculation, where that gets double counted, like where it would be contributing to the national data in an inherent way, then it's also being broken out and applied a second time by race. Like if all the elves were fat, that would reflect in the elf data originally, so applying it again separately would double apply it. Owlofcreamcheese fucked around with this message at 13:50 on Nov 29, 2021 |
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Nov 29, 2021 13:47
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One thing I heard recently is that pulse oximeters are designed for white people (the light doesn't go through pigmented skin so easily) so people with darker skin are less likely to be treated properly in good time. I assume the oximeters get brought out after hospitalisation though, I just found it another faintly ridiculous thing PoC get a raw deal on.
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Nov 29, 2021 14:29
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freebooter posted:This is why they're more likely to be infected, which is different to why they have worse outcomes once they are - the answer to which is mostly good old socio-economic inequality which means they're already more likely to have pre-existing health issues. Yes, chiefly higher rates of obesity, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension—all of which worsen outcomes
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Nov 29, 2021 16:01
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It's also worth noting that medicine in the west has a pretty storied history of racism that persists to this day, like doctors thinking that black people have a higher tolerance for pain, or that they are seeking drugs and exaggerating their pain in some way. Pregnant black women are more likely to die in childbirth because doctors tend to be less attentive to their needs and are less willing to listen to them about their own healthcare. For a high profile case of this, look up what nearly killed Serena Williams during her pregnancy; the only thing that saved her was her white husband advocating for her. That's also iirc a lot of lovely racist research that still informs modern medicine and can affect health outcomes without many doctors even realizing it. poo poo is incredibly tilted against people of color.
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Nov 29, 2021 17:06
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https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1465311406828539917?t=u9jqHCgUaS36c14EXRr_TA&s=19 Anyone know offhand if the prc has backed up vaccine promises before? This could be a real big deal is they follow through
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Nov 29, 2021 17:22
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A big flaming stink posted:https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1465311406828539917?t=u9jqHCgUaS36c14EXRr_TA&s=19 Glancing at the wiki gives, China says they can produce 2 billion doses per year of the Sinovac and 1 billion per year of Sinopharm, both inactivated virus vaccines. They had issues with low-ish efficacy against infection earlier this year, to the point that party officials publicly apologized. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/11/world/china-covid-vaccine.html That was April though, I dunno if they've tweaked dosage or schedule since then, I haven't heard much. The wiki for both gives efficacy against severe disease as very good, in April I think folks were still hoping for high protection against infection, that was before the waning in mRNA vaccines was observed. It seems like they can certainly deliver that many doses, and the advantage of inactivated vaccine is doesn't need super-cold storage like the mRNA vaccines.
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Nov 29, 2021 17:47
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Fritz the Horse posted:It seems like they can certainly deliver that many doses, and the advantage of inactivated vaccine is doesn't need super-cold storage like the mRNA vaccines. They dropped the ultra cold storage recently. It was originally -112°F for shipping then -4°F freezer for up to two weeks. Now it's -4°F freezer for long term storage and 36-46°F for up to one month. So still has some requirement to be kept below room temperature, but none of the really exotic requirements for negative one hundred degree transport.
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Nov 29, 2021 18:26
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:I get the intent of the system, I think the game is stacking up modifiers weirdly. Gameplay bug wise. Yeah I totally get what you're saying, I am constantly working to improve the "outcome" percentages each iteration of the game - but to clarify the game doesn't work that way. NOTHING is multiplied for exampled. Yes, obesity and vaccinations are the only stats that ADD to your "dice roll" one way or another but thats about it. No multiplying. If you're Black the CDC infographic says you're 3.5x as likely to go the ICU - but the game doesn't multiply the White statistic 3.5 times. The game still rolls a standard roll from 0.00% - 100.00% In fact the little CDC infographics for African american ICU admittance at the time when I started only added up to 37%, which I actually did run with just to be "safe" with my 'estimates." I tried to do this everywhere (best case percentages) just to make it more positive. There are several accredited studies online even now that show its as high as 44% or even MORE. Anways, in game if your covid gets to that point, there is a 1-100 dice roll, if under 37% you're going to icu - no "multiplying." So many of the statistics impacting minority groups are outright staggering and shocking and easy to look at and say "this can't be real" if you're not necessarily living in those communities. Obesity is A factor, but not the ONLY factor. There is like a ~10% difference between the obesity rates of Caucasion and African Americans. Only a ~5% difference between obesity in African Americans and Latinos, yet the swings in covid by ethnicity don't match those values 1:1. This is where it gets to be "social commentary" and why I have been considering letting the "disable social commentary" feature disable age/race/gender/ethnicity as well - because if it was my guess its a combination of financial status, definitely access to healthcare, region you live in, and even to a small degree social pressure from within the communities themselves. I think another big factor in the simulator here is that the little characters do NOTHING to protect themselves (unless you make them do it). They are sitting in Covid all day long - eventually everyone gets it, the "stats" don't matter if you're spending hours at a time unmasked with a person with Covid. It also makes a pretty big statement about asymptomatic covid - to get the "symptomatic" charts to match reality it turns out you need to have a VERY large group of asymptomatic people carrying it. I mentioned in a previous post that if you enact quarantine measures in game and work in shifts, the rates plummet. If you have universal masking the rates plummet - I wouldn't say thats too unrealistic. On the other hand if you have zero vaccinations, zero masking, unchecked covid spread while a large number of people work in fairly close quarters... yeah.
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Nov 29, 2021 18:55
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Coldrice posted:Yeah I totally get what you're saying, I am constantly working to improve the "outcome" percentages each iteration of the game - but to clarify the game doesn't work that way. NOTHING is multiplied for exampled. Yes, obesity and vaccinations are the only stats that ADD to your "dice roll" one way or another but thats about it. No multiplying. If you're Black the CDC infographic says you're 3.5x as likely to go the ICU - but the game doesn't multiply the White statistic 3.5 times. The game still rolls a standard roll from 0.00% - 100.00% Right, but the multiplying is applying the entire factor each step, instead of just the additional portion. Like the death rate OVERALL per 100,000 is 2x, not 2x for each hospitalized person who is also 2x as likely to be hospitalized who is also 2x likely to catch it. You only need to deal with the amount different, not the full amount. same with breaking out comorbidities, if you add them at every step they stack, (along with stacking with the rate in the original statistic).
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Nov 29, 2021 19:24
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