Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
CaptainSarcastic
Jul 6, 2013



It does get confusing seeing people using SA to alternately mean South Africa, South America, Something Awful, and occasionally (by crazy people) San Antonio. Or, although it doesn't happen often, the Nazi SA was a thing, too.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Mu Zeta
Oct 17, 2002

Me crush ass to dust

Moderna CEO is a doom poster.

quote:

"There is no world, I think, where (the effectiveness) is the same level . . . we had with Delta," Moderna Chief Executive Stéphane Bancel told the Financial Times in an interview.

"I think it's going to be a material drop. I just don't know how much because we need to wait for the data. But all the scientists I've talked to . . . are like 'this is not going to be good.'"

Bancel added that the high number of mutations on the protein spike the virus uses to infect human cells meant it was likely the current crop of vaccines would need to be modified.

He had earlier said on CNBC that it could take months to begin shipping a vaccine that does work against Omicron.

Helios Grime
Jan 27, 2012

Where we are going we won't need shirts
Pillbug
This is a more general interest question.
So we know that if you had covid you have a partial resistance like when you would get the vaccine, but just not that effective. You then could get a vaccine shot and would get almost full immunity, like if you had gotten 2 shots with no prior infection. This immunity will slowly decline over time and sits roughly at 50-60% after about half a year. There are now booster shots that will up your resistance again to what you would have after being just double vaccinated.
So can we assume or has there been studies of fully vaxxed people getting infected with covid and recovering again, having an immunity similar to being just vaccinated?

I just want to point out this is just a thought I had and I didn't find an answer right away and not me promoting some weird "go get infected, don't worry about it" stance.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

Helios Grime posted:

This is a more general interest question.
So we know that if you had covid you have a partial resistance like when you would get the vaccine, but just not that effective. You then could get a vaccine shot and would get almost full immunity, like if you had gotten 2 shots with no prior infection. This immunity will slowly decline over time and sits roughly at 50-60% after about half a year. There are now booster shots that will up your resistance again to what you would have after being just double vaccinated.
So can we assume or has there been studies of fully vaxxed people getting infected with covid and recovering again, having an immunity similar to being just vaccinated?

I just want to point out this is just a thought I had and I didn't find an answer right away and not me promoting some weird "go get infected, don't worry about it" stance.

I'm not sure what you're asking but there are major differences between the mRNA/vectored vaccines and a natural infection, for example:

-The mRNA and vectored vaccines (used in the US, Europe, other wealthy Western nations) only include the spike protein. Natural infection will expose you to all the parts of the virus, not just spike.
-The mRNA and vectored vaccines deliver the spike protein inside your cells which has important and complicated consequences for how it is recognized and responded to by your immune system. A natural infection doesn't put spike protein inside cells, instead the virus uses spike to access cells and inject its RNA inside.

That's getting deep into immunology which is some black magic voodoo insanely complex stuff that defies intuition, and I am far from an immunologist. But the vaccines and natural infection stimulate your immune system in different ways and provoke different responses.

edit: also when you say immunity declines to 50-60% or so after half a year, that's for infection, how likely the virus is to just bounce off you entirely. You will still have very strong (90-95%+) protection against severe disease and hospitalization. Unless you're elderly or immunocompromised.

It's also possible the booster is not just a "refill" but gives you longer stronger immunity than the second shot. Dunno yet.

Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 09:20 on Nov 30, 2021

Beartaco
Apr 10, 2007

by sebmojo

Fritz the Horse posted:

-The mRNA and vectored vaccines (used in the US, Europe, other wealthy
edit: also when you say immunity declines to 50-60% or so after half a year, that's for infection, how likely the virus is to just bounce off you entirely. You will still have very strong (90-95%+) protection against severe disease and hospitalization. Unless you're elderly or immunocompromised.

Do you have any articles on hand that talk about this? I think I, like most people, took the 60% effectiveness statistic to include everything, from the catching it to the dying of it.

Helios Grime
Jan 27, 2012

Where we are going we won't need shirts
Pillbug
Sorry yeah it's worded pretty poo poo as it's mostly just a shower thought.
I'm just wondering if an infection after being vaccinated has the same effect as getting a booster, is mostly what I'm asking.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

Beartaco posted:

Do you have any articles on hand that talk about this? I think I, like most people, took the 60% effectiveness statistic to include everything, from the catching it to the dying of it.

That's based on the data from Israel that came out in September. Israel was super fast at getting its population vaccinated which means they were also the first to notice the protection starting to wane.

It's super late (2am) here so I'm gonna crash, I'm guessing someone else can you link you recent data so I apologize. I can dig into it tomorrow.

But basically what Israel found is that protection against infection dropped off for everyone after several months, you could still catch a milder case and pass it on to others or maybe have long-COVID issues. Protection against hospitalization and severe disease dropped off for elderly and immunocompromised people but not very much for younger/healthier people.

There's definitely a difference between sterilizing immunity (virus bouncing off you entirely, no infection) which declines rapidly and protection from severe disease which lasts longer.

Helios Grime posted:

Sorry yeah it's worded pretty poo poo as it's mostly just a shower thought.
I'm just wondering if an infection after being vaccinated has the same effect as getting a booster, is mostly what I'm asking.

I think the answer is probably "kinda?" Catching COVID after you get vaxxed is definitely going to give you a boost of sorts. It's not the same boost as another dose of vaccine though.

Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 09:29 on Nov 30, 2021

Pennywise the Frown
May 10, 2010

Upset Trowel

Fritz the Horse posted:

edit: also when you say immunity declines to 50-60% or so after half a year, that's for infection, how likely the virus is to just bounce off you entirely. You will still have very strong (90-95%+) protection against severe disease and hospitalization. Unless you're elderly or immunocompromised.

Woah. I haven't heard of this either.

Dick Jones
Jun 20, 2002

Number 2 Guy at OCP

Did I misread an earlier post saying the booster only takes a week to build up to full strength? Or does it take two weeks?

Anne Whateley
Feb 11, 2007
:unsmith: i like nice words
The low numbers (50-60%) are effectiveness against infection. Effectiveness against hospitalization also drops over time, but less dramatically. After six months, it had declined to 90% for non-immunocompromised people.

The reason that boosters became a thing was because they were concerned that as time continued, effectiveness against hospitalization would continue to drop, along with effectiveness against death.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/08/18/covid-vaccine-effectiveness/

quote:

Surgeon General Vivek H. Murthy explained at Wednesday’s White House covid briefing how experts settled on the eight-month time frame, citing data showing that about six months after vaccination, mild to moderate infections started increasing.

Murthy said that while protection against hospitalization and death remained strong at that point, “our anticipation is that if the trajectory that we are seeing continues, that we will likely see in the future an increase in breakthrough hospitalizations and breakthrough deaths. And that’s why we use our judgment to see when to make a determination when that point may be. And that’s how we came to the eight-month mark.”

At this point I don't think there are great studies on what happens when you got vaccinated 8+ months ago but don't get a booster. For information on that, you need patients who were qualified and motivated to get vaccinated by March, but then decided not to get a booster when it was available. At this point hopefully that group is small. In six months or a year, there will be more of them.

Anne Whateley
Feb 11, 2007
:unsmith: i like nice words

Dick Jones posted:

Did I misread an earlier post saying the booster only takes a week to build up to full strength? Or does it take two weeks?
There are two studies that aren't totally in line.

This one came out earlier and is what we were going by when boosters began in the US https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2114255

Pfizer's chart shows earlier divergence. Pdf, page 18 https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-11-19/02-COVID-Perez-508.pdf

Both of these are Pfizer and are tracking infection (not hospitalization etc.)

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right
Greece is making vaccination mandatory for citizens aged 60+. Those who don't get the jab will be hit with a monthly 100 euro fine.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-11-30/greece-to-make-vaccinations-for-persons-over-60-mandatory-pm-says

smackfu
Jun 7, 2004

Helios Grime posted:

Sorry yeah it's worded pretty poo poo as it's mostly just a shower thought.
I'm just wondering if an infection after being vaccinated has the same effect as getting a booster, is mostly what I'm asking.

This is basically “what are the odds of a double vaxxed person getting two breakthrough cases.” I doubt there are any real stats on that yet.

NotJustANumber99
Feb 15, 2012

somehow that last av was even worse than your posting
Lol in the UK, to combat omnicron, they announced everyone is allowed the booster now with 3 months gap to their second dose.

But no one told the IT nerds running the booking system, so it now has login queues and a big banner saying no, if you're under 40 or not 3 months from your last dose you still won't be able to book until we update it.

If you're over 40 you can book but still need 6 months from the last dose... until they change it and then you could have lopped 3 months off.

Barry Foster
Dec 24, 2007

What is going wrong with that one (face is longer than it should be)

NotJustANumber99 posted:

Lol in the UK, to combat omnicron, they announced everyone is allowed the booster now with 3 months gap to their second dose.

But no one told the IT nerds running the booking system, so it now has login queues and a big banner saying no, if you're under 40 or not 3 months from your last dose you still won't be able to book until we update it.

If you're over 40 you can book but still need 6 months from the last dose... until they change it and then you could have lopped 3 months off.

Literally just discovered this myself, trying to book something.

loving poo poo country

Mne nravitsya
Jul 14, 2017

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

Greece is making vaccination mandatory for citizens aged 60+. Those who don't get the jab will be hit with a monthly 100 euro fine.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-11-30/greece-to-make-vaccinations-for-persons-over-60-mandatory-pm-says

Yep. They sure did. And.......It's already being discussed in Greece that it will get lowered down to fining age 50's and above in the next couple months. Which then of course will lead to fining 40's, 30's 20's, then parents who are not continuously vaxxing their kids on the governments timeline.

I've already been informed that that my EU green pass will become invalidated if I don't get my 3rd booster shot within 6 months, and I'm sure it will be that way continuously, every 3-6 months, until I get the hell out of the EU.

Seth Pecksniff
May 27, 2004

can't believe shrek is fucking dead. rip to a real one.

NotJustANumber99 posted:

Lol in the UK, to combat omnicron, they announced everyone is allowed the booster now with 3 months gap to their second dose.

But no one told the IT nerds running the booking system, so it now has login queues and a big banner saying no, if you're under 40 or not 3 months from your last dose you still won't be able to book until we update it.

If you're over 40 you can book but still need 6 months from the last dose... until they change it and then you could have lopped 3 months off.

A stronger, more prosperous Britain

NotJustANumber99
Feb 15, 2012

somehow that last av was even worse than your posting

Mne nravitsya posted:

Yep. They sure did. And.......It's already being discussed in Greece that it will get lowered down to fining age 50's and above in the next couple months. Which then of course will lead to fining 40's, 30's 20's, then parents who are not continuously vaxxing their kids on the governments timeline.

I've already been informed that that my EU green pass will become invalidated if I don't get my 3rd booster shot within 6 months, and I'm sure it will be that way continuously, every 3-6 months, until I get the hell out of the EU.

Why don't you just get the jab then? Then it won't matter.

ranbo das
Oct 16, 2013


I wish the US had the balls Greece did, that's a good policy

Mne nravitsya
Jul 14, 2017

NotJustANumber99 posted:

Why don't you just get the jab then? Then it won't matter.

I plan on getting the third one (it makes some level of sense to me) but beyond that, I not really onboard for keeping up this type regimen for the rest of my life. Problem is: in some of these EU countries, they will keep forcing and fining for profit.

Bad Purchase
Jun 17, 2019




Mu Zeta posted:

Moderna CEO is a doom poster.

this isn't doom posting if you're the ceo of a vaccine company. doesn't mean the guy isn't right, but it could also just be a pitch to investors, we'll know in a few weeks.

Barry Foster
Dec 24, 2007

What is going wrong with that one (face is longer than it should be)

Mne nravitsya posted:

I plan on getting the third one (it makes some level of sense to me) but beyond that, I not really onboard for keeping up this type regimen for the rest of my life. Problem is: in some of these EU countries, they will keep forcing and fining for profit.

"That type of regimen" is going to be necessary everywhere, for the foreseeable future, unless a literal deus ex machina miracle occurs.

Get used to getting regular booster jabs.

greazeball
Feb 4, 2003



Mne nravitsya posted:

I plan on getting the third one (it makes some level of sense to me) but beyond that, I not really onboard for keeping up this type regimen for the rest of my life. Problem is: in some of these EU countries, they will keep forcing and fining for profit.

You know what would really cut into those profit margins? If everyone got the shots! Stick it to the man! They'll be so mad!

Doctor_Fruitbat
Jun 2, 2013


I too am happy to see the level of human illness and death permanently spike globally so I don't have to have a doctor's appointment twice a year.

Gone Fashing
Aug 4, 2004

KEEP POSTIN
I'M STILL LAFFIN

Mne nravitsya posted:

Yep. They sure did. And.......It's already being discussed in Greece that it will get lowered down to fining age 50's and above in the next couple months. Which then of course will lead to fining 40's, 30's 20's, then parents who are not continuously vaxxing their kids on the governments timeline.

I've already been informed that that my EU green pass will become invalidated if I don't get my 3rd booster shot within 6 months, and I'm sure it will be that way continuously, every 3-6 months, until I get the hell out of the EU.

where you gonna move to

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

NotJustANumber99 posted:

Lol in the UK, to combat omnicron, they announced everyone is allowed the booster now with 3 months gap to their second dose.

But no one told the IT nerds running the booking system, so it now has login queues and a big banner saying no, if you're under 40 or not 3 months from your last dose you still won't be able to book until we update it.

If you're over 40 you can book but still need 6 months from the last dose... until they change it and then you could have lopped 3 months off.

Remember when Yahoo! Groups shut down and it turned out that was a load-bearing component of UK infrastructure?

https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/17/20919630/yahoo-groups-uk-ofcom-simwood-numbers

Mne nravitsya
Jul 14, 2017

Gone Fashing posted:

where you gonna move to

That’s a drat good question. Still trying to figure that out.

Stickman
Feb 1, 2004

Obviously it was impossible to control because we didn't control it, and if it were possible to control why do I keep insisting we shouldn't bother? :shrug:

HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird

Mne nravitsya posted:

That’s a drat good question. Still trying to figure that out.

You could move to the US, the poster child for controlling covid by not making anyone do anything they don't want to do

greazeball
Feb 4, 2003



HolHorsejob posted:

You could move to the US, the poster child for controlling covid by not making anyone do anything they don't want to do

That's a lie, there are vaccine mandates all over the place. Come to Switzerland where we're just starting to think about discussing whether there should be a vaccine mandate for healthcare workers. I work in a college and the absolute most they claim they can do is really sternly ask employees who aren't vaccinated to wear masks although they can't actually check anyone's vaccination status.

compshateme85
Jan 28, 2009

Oh you like racoons? Name three of their songs. You dope.
Oklahoma hosed around and found out

smackfu
Jun 7, 2004

quote:

What remained unclear, however, was how the Pentagon planned to enforce the mandate for members of the National Guard while they are on state duty. Most of the time, including when they are training, members are on state duty and answer to their governor.

The answer to this brain teaser was, “we won’t pay them and their service won’t count.”

snergle
Aug 3, 2013

A kind little mouse!

gohuskies posted:

My county has 85% of the age 16+ population fully vaccinated, requires proof of vaccination to go indoors almost anywhere like bars/restaurants/gyms, requires masks everywhere indoors, and we're putting 10,000 booster doses a day in arms. Is that trying nothing?

my county is the lowest vaxed outside of fl and we are piling bodies in the streets.

Unlucky7
Jul 11, 2006

Fallen Rib
So when people are saying the spike proteins in Omicron would bypass the vaccine, would it still mean that the current vaccine is still good for preventing severe infection, if not infection itself? Or is there just not enough data to make a call either way currently?

NotJustANumber99
Feb 15, 2012

somehow that last av was even worse than your posting

Unlucky7 posted:

So when people are saying the spike proteins in Omicron would bypass the vaccine, would it still mean that the current vaccine is still good for preventing severe infection, if not infection itself? Or is there just not enough data to make a call either way currently?

Yes, but also yes. I think is the answer.

dwarf74
Sep 2, 2012



Buglord

Unlucky7 posted:

So when people are saying the spike proteins in Omicron would bypass the vaccine, would it still mean that the current vaccine is still good for preventing severe infection, if not infection itself? Or is there just not enough data to make a call either way currently?
Nobody actually knows right now. It probably protects somewhere between "almost as well" and "only mildly well." it's almost certainly better than nothing at all, but hospitalization and death lag detection by a number of weeks.

I would trust almost nothing on Twitter right now and just assume it's going to be pretty bad.

Elea
Oct 10, 2012

dwarf74 posted:

Nobody actually knows right now. It probably protects somewhere between "almost as well" and "only mildly well." it's almost certainly better than nothing at all, but hospitalization and death lag detection by a number of weeks.

I would trust almost nothing on Twitter right now and just assume it's going to be pretty bad.

But it's probably on a well to well scale though?

Another Bill
Sep 27, 2018

Born on the bayou
died in a cave
bbq and posting
is all I crave

All we really know for sure is that the variant is out competing Delta in a part of South Africa and has already spread to most developed countries.

Everything else is conjecture.

dwarf74
Sep 2, 2012



Buglord

Elea posted:

But it's probably on a well to well scale though?
Probably.

Definitely? Nope.

e: It's apparently out-competing delta, not infecting alongside it. Which is still really bad! And still only "apparently."

dwarf74 fucked around with this message at 23:55 on Nov 30, 2021

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Lolie
Jun 4, 2010

AUSGBS Thread Mum

quote:

Northern Territory Police say "multiple" people have escaped from Darwin's Howard Springs COVID-19 quarantine facility.

A large number of police officers are currently at the scene.

Officers in masks are searching vehicles in the area.

Staff at the facility are conducting a headcount of those staying in the centre.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-01/multiple-people-escape-howard-springs-quarantine-facility-darwin/100663994

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply